Forex News
- Gold meets with a fresh supply amid a modest USD uptick, though it lacks bearish conviction.
- Inflation fears fuel hawkish Fed expectations and exert additional pressure on the commodity.
- Traders now seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the key US CPI report.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains depressed following the previous day's failed attempt to conquer the $4,800 mark, albeit it lacks bearish conviction and remains confined to a familiar range through the Asian session on Friday. The commodity holds above the $4,750 level as traders keenly await the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures for some meaningful impetus.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation likely rose further in March amid the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices. This could further discourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for a while. In fact, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting revealed on Wednesday that officials were in no rush to cut rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. Adding to this, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on the Gold price.
Iran halted shipping traffic through the strategic waterway in response to brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was not the agreement they had. Trump also warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails, suggesting that escalation risks remain on the table. This acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and reaffirming hawkish Fed bets. This further undermines the non-yielding Gold, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution for bearish traders.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he has issued an instruction to start direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible, addressing a key point of contention in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. A US State Department official reportedly confirmed that talks between Lebanon and Israel will take place next week in Washington, DC. Moreover, crucial US-Iran talks are scheduled in phases between late Friday night and Saturday. This keeps alive hopes of the Iran ceasefire stabilizing, which, in turn, caps any meaningful appreciation for the USD and helps in limiting the downside for the Gold price.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold remains confined in a range; bears not ready to give up yet
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair is holding a neutral-to-slightly bearish tone as it remains capped well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said resistance coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and should act as a key pivotal point.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 hints at modest underlying demand after the recent pullback. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory, suggesting waning upside momentum and reinforcing the 200-period SMA's strong barrier at $4,883.
This is followed closely by the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at $4,908.40. A clear break above this cluster would open the way toward $5,131.50 and ultimately $5,415.69.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50.0% retracement at $4,751.70, with a break there exposing the next Fibonacci floors at $4,595.00 and $4,401.11, ahead of more substantial structural support near $4,087.71.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.25% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.05% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.06% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.13% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.04% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- WTI price edges lower to near $91.75 in Friday’s early European session.
- The constructive outlook of WTI remains intact, with the price holding above the 100-day EMA.
- The first upside barrier emerges at $95.65; the initial support level to watch is $86.20.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $91.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI price declines as traders brace for the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran on Saturday in Pakistan. The US delegation will be led by US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.
A potential long-term deal with Iran could drag the WTI price lower. On the other hand, if negotiations collapse this weekend, the black hold could extend its upside as supply disruptions persist.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $75.13, keeping the broader bias constructive despite the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests momentum has cooled back to neutral after the prior overbought phase.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near $95.65, en route to the $100.00 psychological level. The upper Bollinger band of $105.05 acts as a stronger barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the lower Bollinger band around $86.20, ahead of stronger structural demand at the 100-day EMA near $75.13, where the broader uptrend would be expected to attract dip-buying interest on deeper setbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Indian Rupee edges higher against the US Dollar on Friday ahead of key events.
- Investors await the US CPI data and the outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran.
- The selling pressure from FIIs has slowed down, following the US-Iran temporary truce.
The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) at around 92.45 on Friday. The USD/INR pair is expected to remain on the sidelines as investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March at 06:00 pm IST (12:30 GMT) and the outcome of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran on the 10-point peace proposal in Pakistan over the weekend.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 98.85.
US CPI data awaited
Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data for March, as it will reflect the impact of elevated energy prices, which are driven by the war in the Middle East. The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.9% against the previous reading of 0.3%.
The US core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is estimated to have risen 2.7% YoY, faster than the prior release of 2.5%. Month-on-Month (MoM) core CPI is expected to arrive higher at 0.3% from 0.2% in February.
However, the influence on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook is expected to come more from the outcome of US-Iran permanent ceasefire talks in Pakistan than from the inflation data.
The impact of higher oil prices on US inflation would be counted as a one-time event if Iran agrees to let things return to normal near the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure led to an energy supply crisis and prompted inflation expectations globally. Fed members are unlikely to be encouraged to deliver hawkish remarks on the US interest rate outlook due to a one-off increase in inflation.
Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of retaliation against the killing of its major leaders by combined military attacks from Israel and the US.
Meanwhile, Iran has demanded recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, as one of its requirements, for a permanent ceasefire.
The selling pressure by FIIs slows down
Despite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, overseas investors continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market. However, recent data shows that the selling pressure has cooled down significantly.
Since the announcement of the US-Iran temporary truce on early Wednesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded their stake at an average of Rs. 2,261.58 crore on Wednesday and Thursday, a little over one-fourth of the average selling of Rs. 8,780.39 crore recorded in trading days gone by.
Technical Analysis: Pullbacks in USD/INR seem capped near 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades cautiously around 92.45, with a bearish near-term bias, as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 92.85 after failing to sustain recent highs near 95.12.
The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the neutral 50 mark around 46.5, hinting that upside momentum has faded and keeping the risk skewed toward further corrective weakness while price remains capped by the EMA resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 92.85, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease downside pressure and reopen the path toward the 93.50–94.00 area. Until then, the absence of nearby identified support levels on the chart leaves USD/INR vulnerable to deeper pullbacks, with traders likely to watch prior reaction lows and round figures below 92.00 as the next potential demand zones if selling resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- AUD/USD corrects to near 0.7065 after a four-day winning streak.
- Investors await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
- The US headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% YoY in March.
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend regarding the permanent ceasefire.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.23% | 0.25% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.12% | 0.16% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.16% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Market participants doubt that US-Iran talks will go on smoothly amid continued military attacks in Lebanon between Iran-backed Houthis and the Israeli army.
Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon, stating that Tel Aviv would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.
On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated, through a tweet on X, that he is open to direct negotiations with Lebanon after repeated requests from the nation.
On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to arrive significantly higher at 3.3% from 2.4% in February.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7065 as of writing. However, the pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6989. The pair has rebounded from last month’s lows and is stabilizing near recent highs.
However, the price needs a fresh trigger to extend its upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggling to break into the 60.00s zone.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6989, which reinforces the short-term bullish structure as long as it holds on closing bases. A daily close below this dynamic floor would signal fading upward momentum and expose a deeper correction towards the April 7 low around 0.6900.
Looking up, the April 9 high around 0.7100 is the immediate resistance; a decisive break above the same would allow the price to extend its rebound towards the March high at 0.7187.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.3%
Previous: 2.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- GBP/USD attracts some sellers as Hormuz risks act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD.
- The divergent BoE-Fed policy expectations favor bulls and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial US consumer inflation figures.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to its highest level since late February, set earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3420-1.3415 region and seem poised to register strong weekly gains as investors now look to the latest US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation likely rose further in March amid the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices. This could further discourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for a while. Adding to this, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to the US Dollar (USD), which is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Iran halted shipping traffic through the strategic waterway in response to brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was not the agreement they had. Trump also warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails. This suggests that escalation risks remain on the table and supports Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, traders have sharply reduced Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets and are now pricing in roughly 30-40 basis points (bps) of increases by the year-end. This still marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Fed's signal for one interest rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027. This, in turn, favors the GBP/USD bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for any further losses.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- US Dollar Index stays firm on safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty over the fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
- US official confirms Lebanon–Israel talks will be held next week in Washington, DC.
- President Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is halting its four-day losing streak and trading around 98.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the North American session, a key catalyst for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) policy direction.
The Greenback remains supported by renewed risk aversion, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire. Market sentiment stays cautious as Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, despite Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will soon begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.
JD Vance, along with senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is scheduled to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a potential long-term deal with Iran. In contrast, Esmaeil Baghaei said any negotiations to end the conflict depend on US compliance with ceasefire commitments, including halting hostilities in Lebanon, an interpretation rejected by Washington and Israel.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's March Meeting Minutes indicate policymakers are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, while acknowledging that inflation risks linked to higher oil prices are becoming more balanced.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 3.3% YoY in March, sharply up due to higher energy prices.
- Annual core CPI inflation is expected to edge slightly higher to 2.7%.
- EUR/USD’s technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near term.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a jump in inflation, driven by the upsurge seen in crude Oil prices after the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran.
The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.9%, following the 0.3% increase recorded in March, while the annual reading is seen climbing to its highest level since May 2024 at 3.3%, from 2.4% in February. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.3% and 2.7%, on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.
Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up about 40%, even after the sharp decline seen following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran earlier this week. In March, WTI gained nearly 50%, rising from about $67 per barrel to settle near-$100 by the end of the month.
Previewing the inflation data, “the recent surge in crude prices will be the main factor behind the 0.9% m/m jump in the CPI. The Y/Y rate will leap close to 1pp to 3.3% in March—a two-year-high,” said TD Securities analysts.
“Core inflation will stay shielded from the oil shock for now, rising 0.27% m/m. We look for tariff pass-through to continue playing a role by lifting goods prices. Supercore inflation likely stayed firm at 0.3%,” they added.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
CPI figures for March will reflect the impact of high Oil prices on inflation, which shouldn’t be surprising. Even if the annual CPI inflation rises 3.3% in March, as forecast, investors could see that as a temporary increase in case they remain confident that Oil prices will come down significantly, with a permanent truce in the Middle East allowing the Strait of Hormuz to remain open.
However, the growing uncertainty about the sustainability of a ceasefire and Iran’s condition to retain control of the strait in a peace agreement complicates the picture and raises doubts about a steady pullback in Oil prices. Hence, the developments in the Middle East are likely to shape inflation expectations, rather than the March CPI reading itself.
The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting showed that a number of policymakers are already pushing back the timing of potential rate cuts, reflecting lingering concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than expected. In fact, a large majority flagged the risk that price pressures could stay elevated for longer, particularly if higher Oil prices feed through more broadly.
“Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop,” BBH analysts said.
How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?
Markets currently see about a 75% chance of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year, compared to a 17% probability seen on March 9, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
A stronger-than-forecast monthly CPI print for March might not be able to influence the market pricing of the Fed’s interest-rate outlook in a significant way. However, if a hot inflation print is combined with a re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations about the naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz not going back to its pre-war state anytime soon, investors could reassess the probability of a Fed hike in response to persistent inflation. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength and force EUR/USD to turn south.
Conversely, the USD could remain under bearish pressure – and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound – in case crude Oil prices continue to come down in a steady way, regardless of the March CPI figures.
In summary, March inflation prints are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, while market focus remains on the US-Iran crisis and its impact on Oil prices.
Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD.
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed above 50 for the first time since the beginning of the US-Iran war and the pair broke above the two-month-old descending trend line.”
“The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the February-April trend aligns as the next resistance level at 1.1730 ahead of 1.1800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). On the downside, the immediate support is located at 1.1650 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). In case this support fails, technical sellers could show interest, opening the door for an extended slide toward 1.1560 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1500 (static level, round level).”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD consolidates its weekly gains as Hormuz risks offer some support to the US Dollar.
- The downside remains cushioned as traders await the latest US consumer inflation figures.
- The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for an extension of the weekly uptrend.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past four days and trades with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 mark during the Asian session on Friday. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid the lack of any meaningful US Dollar (USD) buying and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, due later today.
In the meantime, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and undermining the EUR/USD pair. However, hopes of Iran ceasefire stabilizing hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and offer some support to the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 1.1670 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March slide– favors the EUR/USD bulls. Moreover, momentum indicators underpin the constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 58, while staying short of overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory.
Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around 1.1742, followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.1820, with further barriers at 1.1931 and the prior swing high region near 1.2072. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 200-day SMA at 1.1672 and the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.1665, while deeper pullbacks would look toward the 23.6% level at 1.1568 and the March monthly swing low, just ahead of the 1.1400 round-figure mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.7%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,328.21 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 14,339.84 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 167,122.80 per tola from INR 167,257.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,328.21 |
10 Grams | 143,283.30 |
Tola | 167,122.80 |
Troy Ounce | 445,657.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/CHF weakens to around 0.7905 in Friday’s early European session.
- Further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the pair remains capped below the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA, with neutral RSI.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 0.7930; the initial support level is seen at 0.7895.
- The US March CPI inflation report is due later on Friday.
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.7905 during the early European session on Friday. A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran provides some support to a safe-haven currency such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the US Dollar (USD).
Ahead of the US and Iran talks in Pakistan, Israel continues to bombard Lebanon after killing more than 300 people and injuring at least 1,150 in a single day of strikes across the country on Wednesday. Earlier Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there is “no ceasefire in Lebanon” and Israel would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.
Traders will closely monitor the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report later on Friday. The headline CPI is projected to see a rise of 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 2.4% in February, driven by soaring oil prices due to the Middle East war. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could boost the Greenback against the CHF in the near term.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CHF is hovering just above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7893, which lends nearby support, but it remains capped by the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average around 0.7932, keeping the broader tone neutral and range-bound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 is essentially flat, hinting that directional conviction is lacking after the recent pullback from higher levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger midline/20-day SMA near 0.7930, with a break there exposing the upper Bollinger band at roughly 0.8032 as the next hurdle. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day EMA at 0.7895; a clear break below this level would open the way toward the lower Bollinger band support around 0.7832, where buyers could look to defend the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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