Forex News
BNY's Bob Savage reports that Brent and WTI surged around 4–5% as Iran–Israel missile exchanges raised fears of supply disruption and higher global inflation. Savage notes EU natural gas also climbed, while OPEC+ members agreed a modest 188,000 b/d production increase from July 2026 with flexibility to adjust. The balance between conflict risk and incremental supply will guide Oil pricing near term.
Middle East tensions drive crude higher
"WTI up 4.7% to $94.80, Brent up 4.7% to $97.50 – both reflect Iran/Israel missile exchanges and doubts about President Trump’s 60-day ceasefire negotiations."
"EU natural gas also moved higher, up 5% to €51.2, the most in three weeks, linked to the same fears of ongoing supply disruption."
"Draws could rise further to around 11 mb/d in June."
"Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman said they will implement a combined oil production hike of 188,000 b/d in July 2026."
"The group said the move reflects a cautious approach to supporting market stability amid evolving market conditions, while retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phased withdrawal of cuts, including those announced in November 2023."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research notes that the Reserve Bank of India and government unveiled coordinated steps to attract foreign capital and support India’s external position. Measures include widening the Fully Accessible Route for G-secs, liberalising FPI debt taxation, boosting non-resident equity investment, and offering concessional forex swaps and FCNR(B) incentives, which could stabilise the Rupee and lift reserves if sizeable inflows materialise.
Capital inflow push to back Rupee
"The RBI and the government announced a host of coordinated measures to boost inflows and support the capital account math."
"These ticked all boxes to spur dollar inflows, which is likely to result in reserves accretion and stabilise the currency, signaling all hands are on deck."
"Ability to attract inflows upwards of $40-50bn will have a meaningful impact on the external balances, with our FY27 BOP estimate at ~$65bn (assuming oil at $85-90bl)."
"Facility under which full hedging costs will be provided (by the RBI) till Sep26 for Authorised dealers (ADs) to raise fresh 3–5-year FCNR (B) deposits."
"This scheme mirrors the move back in 2013 (discounted swap; attracted $26bn in deposits and $34bn on wider concessional swap facilities) to draw in non-resident deposits but will necessitate a higher subsidy by the RBI in the context of higher US rates currently vs 2013."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Euro has bounced up from 1.1505 lows but remains nearly 0.9% down from Friday's highs.
- Trump's calls for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran have eased risk aversion.
- Eurozone Sentix Confidence Index and German Factory Orders depict a grim economic outlook.
The Euro (EUR) turned positive against the US Dollar (USD) in the daily charts heading into the US session opening on Monday as the EUR/USD bounced to 1.1540 after hitting three-month lows at 1.1499. US President Donald Trump's calls to end the hostilities in the Middle East have soothed investors and contributed to trimming some of the recent USD gains.
Trump affirmed earlier on Monday that final negotiations on "peace" are proceeding, and that getting in this way is subject to "ignorance or stupidity". The US President called for an immediate ceasefire of the hostilities between Israel and Iran after the rivals exchanged attacks, ramping up concerns of an all-out war and sending Oil prices higher.
In the Eurozone, the Sentix Investors’ Confidence Index ticked up in June, yet within levels consistent with a dismal investors' mood and, anyway, below the average numbers seen before the US-Israel attack on Iran. Earlier on the day, German Industrial Orders dropped well beyond market expectations, clouding the Eurozone outlook further and adding pressure on the EUR.
On Friday, the US Labour Statistics Office revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 172K in May, beating expectations of an 85K rise, while April’s figures were upwardly revised to 179K from previous estimates of a 115K increase. These numbers confirm that employment creation is gathering pace in the US in 2026, after a weak 2025 year, and boost hopes that the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy later this year, which has sent the US Dollar higher across the board.
Technical Analysis: looking like a dead cat's bounce
EUR/USD trades at 1.1540, yet with the near-term bias looking strongly bearish. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 38 and the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both hint that downside momentum is still dominant despite a mildly oversold tone.
Initial support is aligned at April's bottom, around the 1.1500 area, ahead of the March 19 and 30 lows around 1.1430. Further depreciation below those levels seems unlikely today.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to find significant resistance at the previous channel bottom near 1.1580. In the unlikely case that those levels are breached, Thursday's and Friday's highs, near 1.1650, and the late Mat high at 1.1685, will be targeted next.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- The New Zealand Dollar advances after Iran announced the end of its military operations against Israel.
- Easing risk aversion weighs on the US Dollar and supports risk-sensitive currencies.
- Expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike in July continue to underpin the Kiwi.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.62% on the day after rebounding from a two-month low touched during the Asian session. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD) as market sentiment improves amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
The move gained momentum after Iran’s armed forces announced the end of their military operations against Israel, while warning that any renewed Israeli attacks on Lebanon would trigger a stronger response. The statement came as US President Donald Trump said discussions toward a ceasefire between the two sides were underway. These developments reduced demand for safe-haven assets and put downward pressure on the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, falls toward the 99.90 area after recently reaching a two-month high near 100.20. The decline in the US Dollar offsets the impact of Friday’s solid US employment report. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 172K in May, while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, confirming the resilience of the US labor market.
Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The inflation figures are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed), as markets continue to assess the path of interest rates in the coming months.
On the New Zealand side, the New Zealand Dollar remains supported by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Traders continue to price in the possibility of a rate hike as soon as July, with the Official Cash Rate expected to peak near 3.5% next year.
Market participants will also monitor China’s trade balance and inflation data, as well as New Zealand’s Business Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures later this week. These releases could provide fresh insight into the regional economic outlook and influence the direction of NZD/USD.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.29% | -0.55% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.20% | -0.46% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.24% | -0.43% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.19% | -0.13% | -0.33% | 0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.31% | -0.53% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.31% | -0.21% | 0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 0.33% | 0.53% | 0.21% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.04% | -0.38% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
According to Fars News, Iran's armed forces have announced an end to military operations against Israel. However, they have warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. While there has been no confirmation from other media outlets.
The statement from Iran ending military attacks against Israel came after United States (US) President Donald Trump urged both Israel and Iran to stop attacking immediately.
Market reaction
US Dollar Index
There seems to be strong selling pressure in the US Dollar (USD), following Iran's announcement of a pause on attacks against Iran. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades 0.14% lower to near 99.90.
WTI Oil price
A sharp selling pressure is seen in Oil prices as Iran shows cooperation with US President Trump's urge to pause the war. In late European trade, the WTI Oil price has given up a majority of its early gains and has retreated to near $90 from the intraday high of $93.50.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that recent US labour data have broken the prior FX range, challenging expectations for a weaker Dollar under President Trump. He argues that stronger US growth, rising rate-hike talk from the FOMC and higher inflation risks could undermine the Dollar debasement narrative, even as Europe and Asia struggle with energy prices.
US data revive Dollar resilience theme
"The data were sufficiently strong, however, to challenge the view that President Trump can deliver lower rates and a weaker dollar."
"However, there has to be a risk that the dollar debasement theme is called into question as more FOMC members start talking about the need to raise interest rates at some point, while European and Asian economies struggle with energy prices."
"Add to that mix clear evidence that the US’s energy-rich economy is weathering the storm much better than those of Europe or Asia, and it is very hard to believe either that President Trump can have a weak dollar simply because he wants one, or that Treasury yields are going to meekly fall back."
"Throw in the danger stemming from a stalemate in US-Iranian negotiations, which threatens to lead to a protracted period of limited oil flows through the Arabian Gulf, and we have all the makings of persistently higher inflation, with all that could imply for bond yields."
"The FX market has been stuck in a stifling range for weeks, as the US economy has shown signs of holding up much better than those of Europe or Asia, while relative interest rate trends have moved in the opposite direction. All that changed with Friday’s US labour report, when employment increased by 120,000 rather than the 89k that ‘Mr Consensus’ was expecting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Canadian Dollar faces selling pressure against its major peers, with investors awaiting the BoC’s policy announcement.
- Investors expect the BoC to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%.
- US President Trump expresses confidence that both Iran and Israel are looking for ceasefire.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades lower against its major currency peers in the European trade on Monday amid caution surrounding the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
The Loonie faces selling pressure amid expectations that the BoC will hold interest rates steady at 2.25%, even as Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a faster pace of 2.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April against the preliminary reading of 2.4%.
Meanwhile, the Canadian labor market data for May has come in stronger than projected. The report shows that the economy created 87.8K fresh jobs, significantly higher than 10K estimates. In April, the Canadian employers fired 17.7K workers. Canada’s Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.9%, while it was expected to remain steady at 6.9%.
On the global front, a sharp corrective move in the Oil price following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump that both Israel and Iran are looking for a ceasefire has also weighed on the Canadian Dollar. The appeal of North American currency diminishes when oil prices start dropping, given that the Canadian economy is a net energy exporter.
“Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly.” US President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
In the US, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be released on Wednesday. The US inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Economic Indicator
BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jun 10, 2026 13:45
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 2.25%
Previous: 2.25%
Source: Bank of Canada
- Gold extends losses beyond $4,300, dropping more than 4% in the last two trading days.
- Geopolitical tensions and rising bets of Fed interest-rate hikes are hammering precious metals.
- XAU/USD falls below the key 200-day SMA.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses on Monday to complete a more than 4% depreciation in the last two trading days. The precious metal has hit $4,268, its lowest price in more than two months, as the safe-haven role has been taken by the US Dollar, which is drawing additional support from higher Treasury yields.
Israel and Iran are ramping up their rhetoric after exchanging missile attacks earlier in the day, adding pressure to an already strained ceasefire. US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran “must immediately stop shooting,” but investors remain on edge, wary about an all-out war in the region.
Meanwhile, the bright US Nonfarm Payrolls data seen on Friday, followed by strong services and manufacturing activity data, released earlier in the week, boosted hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. US Treasury yields jumped, and the Dollar rallied across the board, with investors awaiting the release of US Consumer Price Index figures, due on Wednesday, to confirm those views
Technical Analysis: Gold breaches the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades at $4,289, extending a bearish phase after breaching the 200-day SMA, a popular indicator for market analysts, and a self-fulfilling bearish signal. Momentum indicators in the daily chart reinforce the negative tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory around 32, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is entrenched below zero, suggesting persistent downside pressure.
On the downside, the precious metal might find support at the channel floor, now around $4,230, ahead of a more meaningful horizontal base at the year-to-date low of near $4,100.
On the topside, the pair is upside attempts are likely to be checked at a previous support between $4,350 and $4,365 (March 28, May 29 lows), which capped bulls earlier on the day. This level is closing the path towards the mentioned 200-day SMA, now around $4,435, and the top of the bearish channel, which would meet the price near Friday's peak, at $4,515.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its pause with a 25 bps hike to 2.25% as core and services inflation run above forecasts. However, weaker Eurozone growth prospects and likely downgraded projections lead the bank to expect EUR/USD to decline, even as ECB tightening helps limit downside in a stagflationary backdrop.
ECB tightening into weakening Eurozone growth
"On Thursday, the ECB is set to end a seven meeting pause with a 25bps policy rate hike to 2.25% to curb rising inflation pressures."
"In May, Eurozone core CPI rose to a 13-month high at 2.5% y/y, tracking closer to the ECB’s Q2 severe scenario (2.4%) than to its baseline forecast (2.2%) and adverse scenario (2.3%). Moreover, services CPI surged to a seven-month high at 3.5% y/y, raising the risk of a persistent pickup in inflation."
"The ECB will also publish its June macroeconomic projections which will likely show a downgrade to its growth forecast."
"PMI data indicate Eurozone real GDP could contract by -0.2% q/q in Q2, a pace that sits between the ECB’s adverse (-0.1%) and severe (-0.3%) scenarios and below its current baseline forecast of +0.1%."
"We expect EUR/USD to fall to 1.1400, reflecting a stronger US growth outlook relative to the Eurozone. ECB rate hikes in a sluggish growth, high inflation environment, is not bullish for EUR but should help cushion the downside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Jane Foley report that Canadian Dollar (CAD) net short positions have surged about 36% to their highest level since December 2025. The Canadian Dollar was the second-worst performing G10 currency in May, as Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slipped to -0.1% q/q annualized, signaling a technical recession. Nevertheless, markets still price around 1.25 Bank of Canada (BoC) hikes by year end.
Loonie pressured but hikes still priced
"CAD net short positions jumped by around 36% to the highest level since December 2025."
"CAD was the second-to-worst performing G10 currency in May."
"Canadian Q1 GDP registered a slip to -0.1% q/q annualized, marking a technical recession."
"However, the market is still pricing in around 1.25 BoC hikes by year end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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