Forex News
Societe Generale strategists highlight that the HUF has delivered its strongest quarter since 2009, supported by a pro‑EU shift and expectations of renewed EU fund access. However, they warn that EUR/HUF is struggling to sustain breaks below 350 as fiscal risks emerge under PM Magyar. Narrower bond spreads and modest central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) easing suggest limited room for further compression near term.
Pro‑EU shift versus fiscal slippage
"In CEE, the HUF delivered its best quarter since 2Q09 (+7.8% vs EUR on spot basis), driven by a clear pro‑EU shift following the resounding election victory of PM Magyar in April."
"That said, signs of bullish exhaustion have emerged, with EUR/HUF struggling to sustain a break below the key 350 handle."
"PM Magyar flagged a significantly wider fiscal gap than previously disclosed, with the deficit potentially exceeding 8% of GDP this year vs the prior government estimate of 5%."
"This underscores the scale of consolidation required, especially given the stated ambition to adopt the euro by 2030."
"On the monetary side, the MNB embarked on a modest easing cycle, cutting rates by 25bp to 6.0%, which modestly reduces FX carry support."
"In rates, the 10y HUGB now trades at a 25bp premium versus a pre-election discount of ~150bp, highlighting a sharp repricing but also suggesting limited room for further compression near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee falls sharply against the US Dollar as surging US bond yields diminish the appeal of risky currencies.
- Investors await the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the NFP data for June.
- Lower oil prices will likely limit the Indian Rupee’s downside.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades sharply lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/INR pair rising to near 95.16. The pair weakens as stronger United States (US) Treasury Yields have strengthened the US Dollar and have diminished the appeal of risk-sensitive currencies.
During press time, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade 0.18% higher to near 4.47%. On Tuesday, US bond yields surged a little over 2%, following strong US JOLTS Job Openings data for May. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.16% to near 101.33.
On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers posted 7.594 million fresh jobs, higher than the estimated 7.3 million and the previous reading of 7.585 million.
Meanwhile, the Indian central bank likely intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee on Wednesday, according to Reuters.
Investors keenly await US NFP data
This week, the major trigger for USD/INR will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday. The significance of the US official employment data over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations is expected to be high, as the latest remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh showed that he would refrain from delivering forward-looking guidance in the current policy conjuncture.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows an over 82% chance that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy created 110K fresh jobs, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate is seen remaining steady at 4.3%.
In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June, which will be released during the North American session.
According to estimates, the US private sector created 113K fresh jobs, slightly lower than 122K in May. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain steady at 54.0.
Investors await fresh cues regarding Hormuz future
The MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 remains close to its lowest level in months at around 6,500, as energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, have increased. However, Iran’s multiple attempts for global recognition of its authority near the chokepoint have renewed concerns over energy supply disruption.
On Tuesday, negotiation teams from the US and Iran were scheduled to meet in Oman to discuss the Hormuz situation. However, the meeting didn’t take place as Washington refused to have direct talks with Iran, citing that it would only meet through mediators despite landing in Oman.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR continues to face pressure near 20-day EMA
USD/INR jumps to near 95.16, holding a mild bullish bias as spot recovers above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly 94.83 and within the broader rising support trendline from 94.03. The recent recovery off the mid-94.00s keeps price supported by this uptrend structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 suggests a modest positive tilt in momentum rather than overbought conditions, leaving room for further gains as long as the pair stays anchored above its short-term EMA floor.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 94.83 and horizontal support of the Descending Triangle chart pattern around 94.03. On the topside, the next notable resistance comes from the broader descending trendline drawn from the 97.02 region, and a decisive break above this cap would be needed to strengthen the bullish case and open the way for a more pronounced advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that Turkey’s seemingly improved trade data are largely optical, with seasonally-adjusted figures showing no real trend improvement and strong import momentum. He stresses that an overheated domestic economy and insufficiently tight monetary policy keep the current account vulnerable, making the Turkish Lira (TRY) reliant on risky capital inflows and leaving it under persistent depreciation pressure.
Balance of payments keeps Lira vulnerable
"Turkey’s latest trade data, published yesterday, appeared somewhat better, but the improvement was mostly optical. The headline deficit narrowed as Iran war disruptions faded, and the oil price fell back to calmer levels. This temporary easing of the energy import bill delivered a “good” month for the trade balance."
"On a seasonally-adjusted basis, however, the picture was less comforting: the trade deficit is not improving in trend terms, and import momentum is running quite strong (while export momentum is flat). Strong demand for imported goods continues to pull in foreign products at a pace inconsistent with a genuine adjustment story."
"This matters because the balance of payments remain the pressure point for the lira. Monetary policy was never tight enough to curb excess demand, which requires the economy to decelerate to sub-trend for a protracted period."
"As long as domestic demand stays overheated, the current-account gap will be vulnerable to any renewed energy price upswing or an external shock, and capital inflow will have to do the heavy lifting in financing – a risky proposition in a jittery EM environment."
"FX interventions have masked the imbalance for a while, but such a defence is inherently unsustainable. We think that the lira will continue to face pressure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.67 per troy ounce, down 1.40% from the $58.49 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.87% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 57.67 |
1 Gram | 1.85 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.90 on Wednesday, up from 68.54 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Eurozone inflation slows more than expected in June, lowering expectations of further ECB rate hikes.
- Joachim Nagel's cautious comments fail to provide meaningful support to the single currency.
- The Japanese Yen benefits from safe-haven demand and fears of intervention by Japanese authorities.
EUR/JPY trades around 185.40 at the time of writing, down 0.15% on Wednesday, as the Euro (EUR) weakens while the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains strength. The single currency is pressured by a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Eurozone inflation, while the Japanese currency is supported by both its safe-haven appeal and speculation over possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
Preliminary data showed that the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 2.8% YoY in June, down from 3.2% previously and below market expectations of 3%. On a monthly basis, the index declined by 0.1% after rising by 0.1% in May.
Core HICP, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also eased more than expected, rising by 2.4% YoY in June, down from 2.6% previously and below the 2.6% consensus forecast. On a monthly basis, Core HICP increased by 0.2%, slowing from the previous 0.3% rise.
The softer-than-expected inflation readings lower expectations of further European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, weighing on the Euro. Before the inflation data release, comments from ECB Governing Council member and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel provided only limited support for the European currency. Nagel said that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that he is keeping all options open for the July and September policy meetings. He also stated that inflation will remain elevated this year and stay above the ECB's target in 2027, while stressing that the June rate increase was not an insurance hike.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen. Market participants remain alert to the risk of intervention after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that authorities are ready to respond to excessive currency moves whenever necessary, although she declined to comment on any specific exchange rate level.
The Japanese Yen is also supported by comments from newly appointed Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Ayano Sato, who said that companies are becoming more active in raising wages and prices, suggesting that the impact of a weaker JPY on inflation could now be greater than in the past. She also stated that monetary policy should remain focused on inflation, while fiscal policy should address the impact on households and businesses.
Analysts at Societe Generale also believe that investors are once again testing the resolve of Japanese authorities. The bank noted that 165 on USD/JPY could represent a new line in the sand following previous interventions and warned that a significant short-covering rally in the Japanese Yen could emerge if markets reassess the outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) or if the Bank of Japan continues raising interest rates.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.06% | 0.16% | -0.22% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.14% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.28% | -0.08% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.31% | -0.07% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.08% | 0.22% | -0.16% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.31% | -0.22% | -0.38% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.38% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.21% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- WTI Oil hits fresh four-month lows below $69.00 amid news pointing to fresh US-Iran peace talks in Doha.
- Iranian officials affirm that the talks will address some provisions of the memorandum of understanding.
- The status of the Strait of Hormuz will not be addressed until all the provisions in the memorandum are met, according to Tehran.
Crude Oil prices keep drifting lower after having closed the second quarter with the sharpest decline since 2020. The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel has dropped below $69,00 on Wednesday, for the first time in the last four months, following reports of a fresh round of talks between the US and Iran.
News about the peace negotiations, however, remains confusing. The CNN news channel affirmed earlier on Wednesday that technical talks between US and Iranian negotiators resumed on Wednesday, one day after Tehran discarded any direct talks with the US this week.
Strait of Hormuz is off the table
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, affirmed on Tuesday that Iranian negotiators would meet Qatari mediators to discuss “some of the provisions of the memorandum of understanding", including the issue of Iran’s restricted Assets.
Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted to a trickle, compared to pre-war levels, as the status of the key waterway has become one of the main divergences between the parties. The US has called Iran to simply retreat from Hormuz and allow vessels to sail free and safely through the corridor, while Iran defends its sovereignty over the strait.
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said earlier on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s “greatest instrument of power” in an appearance in local media and that talks about its future status will not take place until all the provisions in the memorandum are met.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes Polish inflation fell to the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% target, with broad price declines and stable core inflation. Markets have priced out hikes and begun to price cuts, which he says could pressure market rates and weaken the zloty. EUR/PLN has tested 4.300 resistance, with potential upside if the NBP signals openness to cuts.
NBP outlook and rates weigh on zloty
"Yesterday's June inflation in Poland brought another surprise to the downside, with a decrease from 3.1% to 2.5%, exactly the target of the National Bank of Poland."
"Although food prices were the main surprise to the downside in May, in June we saw a decrease across the entire basket, but food again remains the main factor. Core inflation is unlikely to have changed much, with our estimate between 3.0-3.1%."
"The market has priced out all rate hikes and now dovish numbers support pricing rate cuts with around 10bp priced in the longer term."
"We still expect some deterioration in inflation towards the end of the year, which should leave the National Bank of Poland policy rate unchanged for a longer period."
"But in the meantime, we can see pressure on lower market rates which should further undermine the zloty's strength."
"EUR/PLN tested 4.300 as we expected, but for now this level remains strong resistance."
"If the NBP indicates openness to a rate cut next week, it could be a signal for EUR/PLN to continue higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/JPY remains weak as Eurozone HICP inflation slowed faster than expected to 2.8% in June.
- Eurozone inflation cooled faster than expected, lowering odds of prolonged high ECB rates.
- Japan’s Atsushi Mimura deemed its past currency intervention successful, adding that some US authorities voiced support.
EUR/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 185.40 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds losses as the Euro (EUR) remains subdued following the release of the Eurozone’s preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data.
On Wednesday, Eurostat showed that Eurozone HICP inflation is at 2.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June, lower than estimates of 3% and the previous reading of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, the inflation data declined by 0.1% after rising at a similar pace in May.
Inflation cools faster than expected in the Eurozone, including Germany, France, and Italy, lowering the odds that the ECB will keep interest rates high. In Germany, June's inflation dropped to 2.3% from May's 2.6%, coming in below the 2.5% rate markets had anticipated.
The EUR/JPY cross could further depreciate as the Japanese Yen (JPY) may receive support from growing speculation that the government could intervene to defend the currency. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, stated that a previous intervention two months ago was successful, noting that some US authorities even voiced support for the move.
Further boosting the Yen, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Q2 Tankan survey showed that business sentiment surged significantly past market forecasts. The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index climbed to 22 from the previous reading of 17, easily beating the market expectation of 16. Similarly, the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index edged up to 37 from 36 prior, outperforming the market consensus of 35. This combination of robust economic data and active intervention fears could give the JPY notable upward momentum.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
HSBC’s Willem Sels and Lucia Ku observe that Gold failed to rally during the Middle East conflict and has traded lower despite hitting a record high earlier in the year. They argue US yields and a stronger Dollar are key headwinds, keeping prices range-bound near term, but expect diversification demand, central bank buying and ETF inflows to support further upside by year-end.
Yields cap Gold but support builds
"Gold did not rally during the Middle East conflict and has largely moved in tandem with equities. Our analysis indicates that US yields are the primary driver of gold prices. We believe gold may remain range-bound in the near term amid elevated real yields and a stronger USD. However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank buying and steady ETF inflows should support gold prices over the medium term. We continue to view gold as an effective diversifier against broader portfolio risks."
"Our analysis indicates that US yields are the primary driver of gold prices. When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset increases, putting pressure on gold prices. Moreover, gold has been less effective as an equity hedge in 2026, having largely moved in tandem with equities."
"We believe gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term given elevated real yields and a strong USD. However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows continue to support our bullish view on gold and its role as a diversifier against broader portfolio risks. We anticipate further upside for gold by year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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