Forex News
- The RBNZ is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Wednesday, but the forward track is where the real action sits.
- Inflation has pushed back to the top of the target band and is forecast to keep climbing, leaving the bank's old easing bias looking badly dated.
- Rate markets have quietly flipped to pricing the next move as a hike rather than a cut, setting up a hawkish-hold trap for the Kiwi.
There is something almost comic about a central bank that spent a year insisting rates needed to come down, only to find itself staring at inflation heading the wrong way. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from a 5.5% peak all the way to 2.25% by late last year, the most aggressive easing cycle in the developed world. On Wednesday at 02:00 GMT it is expected to leave that rate untouched for a third straight meeting and, in all likelihood, keep talking about looking through near-term price pressures. The trouble is that the tape, the data, and increasingly the bank's own forecasts no longer agree that those pressures are going anywhere.
The easing that won't stop biting
The uncomfortable truth for the RBNZ is that monetary policy works with a lag of roughly twelve to eighteen months, which means the deep cuts delivered through 2024 and 2025 are only now feeding through into activity and prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.1% YoY in the final quarter of last year, breaching the 1% to 3% target band, and the bank's own projections have headline inflation pushing toward 4% in the middle of this year. That is not a rounding error; it is a central bank that eased into the teeth of an inflation problem and is now hoping the problem politely resolves itself. The Middle East has not helped. Surging Crude Oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict have lit a fresh fire under imported inflation, and the governor has gone out of her way to keep hikes firmly on the table rather than rule them out.
The market stopped believing the cut story
For a sense of how far the narrative has turned, look at where the rate market now sits. Six months ago, the debate was about how much further the OCR would fall. Today, the swaps curve leans toward a hike before year-end, with bank economists steadily pulling their first-tightening calls forward into late 2026 and penciling in an endpoint back up around 3%. Wholesale rates beyond twelve months have already climbed on that repricing, and several lenders have nudged mortgage rates higher without waiting for the RBNZ to move. A hold on Wednesday is the base case, but a hold delivered alongside upgraded inflation forecasts and a reluctance to commit to any further easing is, in substance, a hawkish hold. That is the scenario the Kiwi is not fully braced for.
Why the forecasts matter more than the rate
This is a full Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), not an interim review, which means fresh projections and a press conference at 03:00 GMT. The OCR track buried in those forecasts will move the Kiwi far more than the unchanged headline number. If the bank lifts its inflation profile and flags the prospect of decisive tightening should second-round effects take hold, that is rocket fuel for the currency. If instead it leans on the transitory script and signals patience, expect the Kiwi to fade the disappointment. Adding to the noise, the government's Budget lands Thursday, so traders will be reading the rate decision and the fiscal stance together rather than in isolation.
For now the Kiwi is trading near 0.5850 after grinding lower through the overnight session and stabilising just above 0.5830 on the intraday chart. On the daily, price has slipped below its clustered 50 and 200-day EMAs, which sit just overhead in the 0.5850 to 0.5900 band and have capped every rally this year. A genuinely hawkish statement opens a run at the 0.5900 handle, with 0.5950 the stretch target if the tightening rhetoric is explicit. A dovish or non-committal hold sends it back toward the 0.5800 handle, and a break there exposes 0.5750. The bias into the event is neutral with an upside skew, simply because the bank has more room to surprise hawkish than dovish from here. The wider question is how long the RBNZ can keep calling this inflation temporary before the curve forces its hand.
NZD/USD 15-minute chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Standard Chartered economists Saurav Anand and Siddharth Sadasivam note that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised policy rates by 100bps to curb inflation, cool credit-driven imports and support the LKR. They expect further hikes in 2026, with inflation staying above target and risks from high Oil prices, external pressures and weather-related energy costs.
CBSL tightening path and inflation risks
"The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) raised policy rates by 100bps on 26 May to curb rising inflation, contain still-strong domestic demand (leading to a rise in credit-driven imports) and support the LKR."
"The CBSL statement clearly acknowledged that headline CPI inflation is likely to remain above its 5% target in the period ahead."
"We continue to see the CBSL raising policy rates by a further 50bps in Q3-2026, with risk of another 50bps hike in Q4 if higher crude oil prices add to inflationary pressures and increase depreciation pressure on the LKR."
"We therefore revise our end-2026 policy rate forecast to 9.25% (from 8.75% previously)."
"We acknowledge the risk of the CBSL keeping policy rates unchanged in 2026 in case of a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and if crude oil prices stabilise below USD 90/bbl in Q3-2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD trades flat as Iran tensions temper risk appetite.
- Hot CPI could pressure the RBA after three rate hikes.
- US data spotlight shifts to GDP, jobs and Core PCE.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers at around its Tuesday’s opening price during the North American session, with traders awaiting the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Meanwhile, geopolitics are weighing on AUD/USD, which is trading flat at 0.7170.
AUD/USD steadies as traders await key inflation data
During Tuesday’s Asian session, US military strikes on Iran shook markets that had been enjoying some upside, following weekend news from US President Donald Trump revealed progress in US-Iran negotiations.
In the meantime, data from the US showed that American consumers are becoming pessimistic due to high energy prices, which are now affecting several sectors of the economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.1 in May, though it still beat economists’ forecast of 92, according to Bloomberg’s poll.
Aside from this, AUD/USD traders are laser-focused on the release of the Australian inflation report, which is projected to edge lower from 4.6% in March to 4.4% YoY in April. The Trimmed Mean CPI, sought by many as the most relevant inflation reading, is estimated to accelerate by 3.4% YoY, up from 3.3% in March.
If the data comes in hotter than expected, it would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has so far tightened policy three times this year by 75 basis points due to high inflation readings. Nevertheless, an uptick in the latest employment report spurred worries that monetary policy might be slightly restrictive, triggering a deeper slowdown.
In the US, the economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, the second reading of Q1 2026 GDP, labor market data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7168, retaining a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot holds above the cluster of rising trend-line supports drawn from 0.6897 and 0.6833, which currently intersect just under 0.7130. The latest 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7100 sit comfortably below price and reinforce the notion of an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 suggests only modest, directionless momentum, leaving price action rather than oscillators to guide the immediate tone.
On the downside, initial support lies in the 0.7124–0.7129 rising trendline zone, with further protection provided by the grouped SMAs near 0.7100 and, on a wider horizon, the previously broken descending trendline now acting as a historical floor around 0.6455. On the topside, resistance is projected from former support trend structures now capping the advance toward 0.7762 and then 0.8160, and unless these upper boundaries are challenged, the pair is likely to remain in a grinding but still constructive ascent above its rising daily supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.38% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.59% | 0.38% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | 0.29% | 0.15% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.50% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.38% | -0.29% | -0.13% | -0.32% | -0.29% | 0.20% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.15% | 0.13% | -0.19% | -0.16% | 0.33% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.55% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.16% | -0.04% | 0.51% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.59% | -0.50% | -0.20% | -0.33% | -0.55% | -0.51% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.38% | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.32% | -0.29% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- Australia’s Consumer Price Index is expected to have eased in April, but to remain near long-term highs.
- Monthly CPI inflation is expected to have eased amid the Australian government’s fuel excise relief.
- April’s CPI figures are likely to keep pressure on the RBA to tighten monetary policy further.
The highlight in the Australian economic docket this week is the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which are expected to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. Consumer inflation is forecast to slow down to a 4.4% year-on-year (YoY) rate, down from 4.6% in March, yet still at its highest levels since 2023, and well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2% to 3% target for price stability.
The Australian government’s decision to halve fuel excise in April might have contributed to taming monthly inflation to 0.6% in April from the previous month’s 1.1% reading. The Trimmed Mean CPI, however, considered more relevant to assess underlying inflationary trends, is expected to have accelerated to 3.4% in the 12 months to April from 3.3% in March and 0.4% monthly from the previous 0.3% rate.
On the whole, these numbers might provide a momentary respite to the RBA, but they do not ease pressure on the central bank to keep tightening borrowing costs. Investors are pricing a pause at the next monetary policy meeting due in mid-June, as the consequences of Iran’s conflict seem to be starting to take a toll on the Australian economy.
What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?
April’s CPI figures are expected to confirm that the higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict keep boosting consumer prices, although recent reports warn about pass-through effects, with inflationary effects visible on a range of products from food to recreation or building materials.
In this context, the central bank would celebrate some moderation on the CPI growth, especially after the labour data released last week showed that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5% in April, its highest level since September..
The RBA, nevertheless, remains focused on inflation as the main target of its monetary policy. The minutes of May’s meeting showed nearly unanimous support for the third consecutive interest rate hike and reflected a hawkishly-leaning stance as the board projects price pressures to remain above target for an extended period.
Analysts from Westpac support that view, as they see Australian inflation peaking at 5% this year, and return to the RBA’s target only in late 2027: “Brent oil is now expected to average $125 per barrel in Q2. Headline inflation is now expected to peak lower at 5.0%yr in Q3 2026, but prove more persistent, ending the year at 4.9%yr and reaching 2.5%yr by end-2027.”
Interest rates, however, are likely to remain steady at June’s meeting, with an August hike on the table. May’s minutes also revealed that most RBA board members consider the current 4.35% Cash Rate target as somewhat restrictive, and that there is now some margin to observe how households and businesses react to the current conditions and to developments in the Middle East. Any sign of inflation moderation, even a mild one, in this case, will support that stance.
How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?
With inflation figures well above target, and the US-Iran conflict in a stalemate, any deviation in the Consumer Price Index data might have a significant impact on the Australian Dollar’s volatility. April’s will be the last CPI release before the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting, and, although it is unlikely to alter expectations of a rate pause, it will provide further insight into the banks’ next steps.
If final numbers meet market consensus, the impact on the Aussie is expected to be minor, with all eyes on the US-Iran peace process. A lower-than-expected inflation will practically confirm steady interest rates in June, and might cast doubt on an August rate hike, which is highly likely to add bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
The risk, however, is of a strong CPI reading, especially if the yearly inflation accelerates unexpectedly. This would signal stronger-than-expected second-round inflationary effects and increase pressure on the RBA to keep tightening its monetary policy. This option would have a positive impact on the AUD.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD is showing a somewhat stronger stance this week, according to FXStreet Analyst, Guillermo Alcala, although resistance around 0.7190 remains a significant hurdle for bulls: “The pair has broken above the triangle pattern observed last week, but bulls seem to be losing momentum after failing to breach resistance at the 0.7190 area.”
On the downside, Alcala sees key support at 0.7080: “Downside attempts are likely to find support at a reverse trendline, now in the area of 0.7145. Further down, a break of May’s 19 low at 0.7080 would signal the negation of the bullish view and expose the April 13 low, near 0.7030.”
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said the central bank could begin a series of rate increases if inflation sparked by the Middle East conflict keeps rising, in comments to Nikkei during a visit to Tokyo to attend the Bank of Japan's annual conference.
He said that “the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike,” adding that it would depend on inflation’s behavior. Kashkari added that a persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz can affect long-term inflation expectations in households and businesses, which “could become unanchored.”
Consequently, the central bank would likely tighten policy. “Federal funds rate increases, potentially a series of them, could be warranted,” Kashkari said.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.41% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.62% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.54% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.41% | -0.33% | -0.15% | -0.33% | -0.35% | 0.20% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.17% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.18% | 0.35% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.00% | 0.54% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.35% | 0.18% | -0.00% | 0.54% | 0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.62% | -0.54% | -0.20% | -0.35% | -0.54% | -0.54% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | -0.26% | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.30% | -0.30% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, led by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, highlights that Indonesia’s wider current and financial account deficits increase downside risks for the Rupiah. Bank Indonesia expects a manageable current account deficit, but higher global yields, the Federal Reserve’s stance, and geopolitical tensions are seen sustaining depreciation pressure on the currency over coming quarters.
Rupiah seen under sustained depreciation risk
"However, persistent external headwinds—particularly the Federal Reserve’s “higher-for-longer” stance—are expected to sustain depreciation pressure on the rupiah."
"The rupiah faces continued depreciation risks amid higher global yields and persistent uncertainty, while export performance is likely to remain constrained by soft global demand and commodity price volatility."
"Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s external position is expected to remain under pressure."
"Policy coordination between the government and private sector will be critical in navigating these challenges."
"In particular, initiatives led by Danantara—including its role as a capital mobilization platform and as an export conduit via Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI)—could provide structural support to external balances."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY cites comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel arguing for a June rate increase, as Middle East energy shocks create persistent inflation pressures. She warns that the Euro area has moved beyond prior adverse energy scenarios, with second‑round effects broadening, and stresses that maintaining ECB credibility requires a timely policy response despite growth risks.
Energy shock supports tighter ECB policy
"ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has said the European Central Bank should raise interest rates at its June meeting, arguing that the energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict is too large and persistent for policymakers to ignore."
"Speaking to Reuters, Schnabel stated that even if the war were to end immediately, damage to energy infrastructure and supply chains had already created lasting inflationary pressures that would require a monetary policy response."
"She warned that the euro area has effectively moved beyond the ECB’s previous adverse energy scenario and highlighted growing evidence of second-round inflation effects spreading beyond energy into broader consumer prices and non-energy industrial goods."
"While acknowledging downside risks to economic growth from weaker confidence and higher energy costs, Schnabel stressed that maintaining the ECB’s anti-inflation credibility required a timely policy response."
"Bonds are mixed, with the ECB and BoJ signaling higher rates to come, while USD is down 0.25% since Friday."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Singapore team highlights that Singapore’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised sharply higher to 6.0% year-on-year, with strong AI-related demand and robust construction and services activity. Inflation remains contained near the lower end of MAS’s forecast range. Despite this supportive backdrop and lower Oil prices, USD/SGD remains confined within a 1.2650–1.2840 range.
Stronger growth yet contained inflation
"The final Q1 GDP was revised up significantly to 1.0% qoq sa from -0.3% for the advance estimate (Bloomberg consensus: 0.2%) vs 1.3% in Q4 2025. On an annual basis, it translated to 6.0% yoy from 4.6% initially (Bloomberg consensus: 5.2%) vs 5.7% in Q4 2025."
"Despite the strong Q1 outturn, MTI warned that growth headwinds have “risen significantly” due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices. While AI-related capex is expected to remain supportive through 2026, MTI cautioned that tech firms could scale back investment commitments, weighing on activity."
"On inflation, April CPI held steady at 1.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 2.1%) and unchanged from March. Although fuel and energy inflation picked up sharply, prices for non-energy goods and services remained relatively stable, suggesting limited second-round pass-through from higher global commodity prices."
"In FX, USD/SGD fell 0.2% to 1.2770 yesterday, driven by lower crude oil prices and a weaker USD. The pair has been rangebound since April, holding within the 1.2650-1.2840 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY clears 159.00 after bouncing from 50-day SMA support.
- RSI remains bullish, but fears of intervention cap upside momentum.
- A break below 159.00 exposes the 158.78 and 157.62 support levels.
The USD/JPY pair recovers some ground on Tuesday, rising over 0.25% as buyers ignore the intervention zone, clearing 159.00 and aiming to challenge the 159.50 area. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 159.38.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows USD/JPY is poised to consolidate further within the 159.00-160.00 area, with further upside expected after the pair bounced off the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.79, extending its gains past 159.00.
Momentum, although bullish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above its 50-neutral level, remains capped by fears for a possible intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets.
On the downside, if USD/JPY moves below 159.00, traders could eye the 50-day SMA at 158.78. Below this level lies the 100-day SMA at 157.62, ahead of the May 6 low of 155.04.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | 0.43% | 0.25% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.61% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | 0.34% | 0.15% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.51% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.43% | -0.34% | -0.17% | -0.36% | -0.36% | 0.17% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.15% | 0.17% | -0.17% | -0.17% | 0.34% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.36% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.54% | 0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.36% | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.53% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.61% | -0.51% | -0.17% | -0.34% | -0.54% | -0.53% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.24% | 0.08% | -0.13% | -0.29% | -0.29% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- US defensive strikes in Iran sour risk appetite across markets.
- WTI falls below $95, easing some inflation-pressure concerns.
- Traders eye Core PCE after consumer confidence weakens.
Gold (XAU/USD) price tumbles more than 1.60% on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on renewed haven demand following US strikes in southern Iran. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades below the $4,500 mark after reaching a daily high of $4,580.
XAU/USD falls as US-Iran tensions drive investors into USD
Military activity resumed in southern Iran, as Tehran claimed that the US broke the ceasefire deal. However, Washington argued that they conducted defensive attacks aimed at destroying missile launchers and boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio poured cold water on risk appetite, saying that reaching a deal could “take a few days.”
US equities pared their gains as risk appetite turned sour, pushing investors towards the safety of the US Dollar, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up 0.17%. The DXY, which measures the Greenback's performance against other currencies, is at 99.17.
Oil prices extended their decline, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling 2.75% to $94.34 per barrel. Easing inflation concerns were also reflected in US Treasury yields, with the policy-sensitive two-year note slipping nearly four basis points to 4.074%.
Money markets had priced in a 58% chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike towards the end of the year. For the June meeting, traders priced in a 99% chance for a hold on Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the Fed Chair.
Data from the US showed that rising living costs are weighing on households, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.1 in May, though it still beat economists’ forecast of 92, according to Bloomberg’s poll. The survey highlighted growing consumer anxiety, with two-thirds of respondents reporting reduced spending due to higher prices.
On Monday, Nikkei reported that Washington and Tehran reached a deal to extend the ongoing ceasefire for 60 days. The agreement revealed that Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, restore passage for all ships, and end transit fees. Nuclear talks would resume during the 60-day ceasefire, while Washington would gradually ease sanctions on Iranian assets.
This week’s US economic calendar will focus on housing figures, Durable Goods Orders, the second reading of Q1 2026 GDP, labor market data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold tumbles below $4,500 sellers target $4,300
Gold fell under the $4,500 threshold, poised to test $4,453, the recent cycle low, which, if broken, could push the yellow metal towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,387.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests further downside as it approaches oversold territory.
On the other hand, for a bullish recovery, buyers must reclaim the $4,500 mark before testing the $4,550 psychological level. A breach of the latter will expose the $4,600 figure, before challenging the 50-day SMA at $4,647.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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