Forex News
- WTI price hit $110.73, the highest since June 2022, on Monday.
- Crude Oil prices rise on supply fears as the Middle East conflict widens.
- President Trump said higher oil prices are a “very small price to pay” for defeating Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price opened at a gap up, extending its winning streak for the fifth successive session, and is trading around $110.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. WTI price hit $110.73, the highest since June 2022, amid concerns that a prolonged Middle East conflict could disrupt global energy supplies over the longer term.
Middle Eastern producers cut output as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Iran war. Kuwait, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), announced precautionary production cuts, while Iraq’s southern oil output dropped to 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million.
The Telegraph reported on Sunday that US President Donald Trump said that the rise in oil prices is a “very small price to pay” for defeating Iran and ensuring global peace. Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s only option is unconditional surrender and that after that happens, he will help select its next leader.
The Iran war has entered its second week with no clear resolution in sight. Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader just over a week after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in US-Israeli strikes, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in control. Last week, President Trump said the appointment would be “unacceptable” and suggested Washington should have a role in selecting Iran’s next supreme leader.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD attracts some buyers in the vicinity of mid-1.3500s, though it lacks follow-through.
- The global flight to safety lifts the USD to a multi-month peak and lends support to spot prices.
- Surging Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair rebounds from the vicinity of mid-1.3500s, or a nearly one-month low touched during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks follow-through buying. Spot prices struggle to build on the bounce beyond the 1.3600 mark amid mixed fundamental cues, which warrants some caution for bullish traders.
The escalating Middle East conflict offsets Friday's dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and lifts the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to a fresh high since November 2025. Furthermore, a surge in Crude Oil prices fuel inflation concerns and forces investors to push back their expectations about the likely timing of the next rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and continues to push the US Treasury bond yields. This provides an additional boost to the Greenback, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices surged over 25% intraday, beyond the $110 mark, to a nine-month peak on Monday amid concerns about supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. This is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, Friday's break below a multi-week-old trading range support makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and before positioning for any meaningful recovery.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- Gold price slumps to near $5,075 in Monday’s early Asian session, down 1.52% on the day.
- Surging oil prices have fueled fresh inflation fears, causing traders to scale back bets on further easing by the Fed.
- A disappointing US February jobs report might help limit the Gold’s losses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $5,075 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and inflationary risks. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflicts and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The US Consumer Price Index inflation report (CPI) will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
The precious metal faces some selling pressure as a rally in crude oil prices stokes inflation fears in the US, raising the chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates higher for longer. Higher borrowing costs are typically negative for the non-yielding Gold price.
The US central bank is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting on March 17-18. Many economists anticipate the next rate cut will not occur until June or July 2026.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he thought the rise in oil prices was "more like a one-off event" that would not require a Fed response but also acknowledged the uncertainties if the conflict persists and oil prices keep rising.
On the other hand, the weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) could weigh on the Greenback and lift the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. The February jobs report showed a decline of 92,000 payrolls, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- NZD/USD softens to around 0.5865 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- China’s CPI inflation rose to 1.3% YoY in February, hotter than expected
- Trump said the new supreme leader will ‘not last long’ without US approval, raising fears of a prolonged Middle East war.
The NZD/USD pair faces some selling pressure to near 0.5865 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as the US-Israeli war with Iran shows no sign of resolution, boosting safe-haven demand.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday showed that China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.3% YoY in February, compared to an increase of 0.2% in January. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.8%. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.9% YoY in February, versus a 1.4% fall in January, better than the expectations of -1.1%.
On a monthly basis, the Chinese CPI inflation arrived at 1.0% MoM in February, versus a rise of 0.2% prior. However, the encouraging Chinese economic data fail to boost the China-proxy Aussie as the markets remain cautious amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Iran picked Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader just over a week after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in US-Israeli strikes. US President Donald Trump said that he would exert influence over Iran’s next supreme leader, saying that whoever is picked for the role without Washington’s approval is “not going to last long."
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- USD/JPY rises as safe-haven demand boosts the US Dollar amid the second week of the Iran war.
- US Dollar Index rises toward three-month high as WTI Oil price surges above $100 per barrel.
- Japan’s Current Account surplus was ¥941.6B in January, below the ¥960.0B expected.
USD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 158.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) gains on safe-haven demand. The Iran war has entered its second week with no clear resolution in sight.
Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader just over a week after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in US-Israeli strikes, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in control. Last week, US President Donald Trump said the appointment would be “unacceptable” and suggested Washington should have a role in selecting Iran’s next supreme leader.
The Greenback also finds support as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price surges above $100.00 per barrel amid concerns that a prolonged Middle East conflict could disrupt global energy supplies over the longer term. Trump added that the rise in oil prices is a “very small price to pay” for defeating Iran and ensuring global peace.
Moreover, the US Dollar receives additional support as traders revise inflation expectations following the outbreak of hostilities last week, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts.
Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings increased 3% year-over-year in January 2026, following a 2.5% increase in December 2025. Meanwhile, Japan’s Current Account surplus came in at ¥941.6B in January, below the ¥960.0B expected, compared with the previous ¥728.8B.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Silver kicks off the new week on a weaker note, though it shows some resilience below $80.00.
- The broader technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciation.
- A sustained strength beyond the 100-hour EMA hurdle is needed to negate the negative outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and drops to a four-day trough during the Asian session. The white metal currently trades around mid-$80.00s, down 4% for the day, and seems vulnerable to slide further.
Against the backdrop of the recent repeated failures near the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), acceptance below the $80.00 psychological mark would be seen as a fresh trigger for the XAG/USD bears and pave the way for deeper losses.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips further into negative territory with the line extending below its signal, and the expanding negative histogram signals strengthening downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.92 hovers just above oversold, indicating persistent selling pressure but also proximity to a zone where short-term bounces often emerge.
Meanwhile, immediate support is seen at the recent low around $79.50, where a decisive break would expose the next downside level near $78.50. Below that area, a deeper extension could target $78.00 as the next bearish objective. On the upside, initial resistance stands at $81.50, with a recovery above that level opening the way toward $82.50.
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAG/USD holds well below the 100-period EMA near $84.50, keeping the recent downswing in control. Only a sustained move back above the said barrier would neutralize the current bearish tone and signal a more durable recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in February from a year ago after arriving at an increase of 0.2% in January, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Monday. The market consensus was for 0.8% in the reported period.
Chinese CPI inflation arrived at 1.0% MoM in February versus a rise of 0.2% prior.
China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.9% YoY in February, following a 1.4% fall in January. The data came in better than the market consensus of -1.1%.
Market reaction to China’s CPI, PPI data
The China’s CPI and PPI data fail to boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). At the press time, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.80% on the day to trade at 0.6965.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.71% | 0.69% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.69% | 0.62% | 0.59% | |
| EUR | -0.71% | -0.02% | -0.29% | -0.64% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.69% | 0.02% | -0.27% | -0.63% | -0.00% | -0.07% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.44% | 0.29% | 0.27% | -0.37% | 0.25% | 0.18% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.64% | 0.63% | 0.37% | 0.62% | 0.55% | 0.52% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.25% | -0.62% | -0.07% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.62% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.55% | 0.07% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.59% | 0.12% | 0.10% | -0.15% | -0.52% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published on March 8 at 23:25 GMT as a preview of China’s CPI, PPI data.
China’s CPI, PPI Overview
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for February at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a rise of 0.8% YoY in February, compared to 0.2% in January. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to show a decline of 1.1% YoY in February versus a fall of 1.4% prior.
The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Meanwhile, the PPI is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers.
How could the China’s CPI, PPI affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to China’s CPI, PPI data. The pair edges lower as heightened tensions in the Middle East trigger a risk-off mood and boost safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar (USD).
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the January 30 high of 0.7055. The next resistance level emerges at the March 5 high of 0.7089. The additional upside filter to watch is the February 12 high of 0.7147.
To the downside, the January 26 low of 0.6906 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 100-day EMA of 0.6810, followed by the January 6 high of 0.6741.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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