Forex News
- US-Iran ceasefire hopes pressure Dollar and boost risk appetite.
- Core PCE stays hot, keeping Fed hike risks alive.
- Australian household spending slump limits upside for the Aussie.
The Australian Dollar advances some 0.25% on Thursday on reports that Iran and the US reached a deal, as economic data in the US revealed that the economy grew at a slower pace than projected. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7158, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7097.
AUD/USD rebounds as risk appetite improves after Axios ceasefire report
The US Dollar is falling on Axios news that the US and Iranian negotiators have agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Nevertheless, the agreement still awaits final approval from President Trump and senior leadership on both sides.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's performance against its peers, is down 0.25% to 98.97 amid an improvement in risk appetite.
US inflation in April held above the 3% threshold, with the Core PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rising to 3.3% YoY from 3.2%, driven by elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran war. Headline figures expanded by 3.8% YoY as expected, up from March’s 3.5%.
The US economy grew lower than expected in Q1 2026, with GDP surging just 1.6%, down from 2.0% in the second estimate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Labour Department also reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K in the week ending May 23, above expectations of 211K.
Fed commentary remained mixed. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that a rate hike could be needed if inflation fails to cool. At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams said policy is appropriately positioned given the outlook.
In Australia, household spending fell 1.1% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), below economists' estimates of a 0.4% contraction.
Ahead, the Aussie’s schedule is absent. In the US, traders await speeches by Federal Reserve officials, ahead of entering their blackout period.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7168. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it sits above the latest simple moving average from the triple set around 0.7104 and respects the rising trend-line support zone projected near 0.7133. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers slightly above the midline near 51, hinting at steady but not overstretched upside momentum as price consolidates around the day’s opening pivot at 0.7168.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the intraday pivot and prior open around 0.7168, with the clustered rising trend-line breaks near 0.7133 reinforcing a broader demand band ahead of the simple moving average support by 0.7104. A deeper slide could expose the former downward trend-line break level near 0.6454 as a more distant structural floor. On the topside, bulls would need to clear successive resistance defined by the higher upward trend-line break projections at 0.7777 and 0.8182 to reclaim a more assertive medium-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.54% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.37% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.14% | -0.01% | -0.16% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.43% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.08% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- WTI swings sharply as traders weigh fresh US-Iran attacks against truce headlines.
- Oil prices reverse earlier gains after Axios reports preliminary US-Iran agreement.
- Lingering uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz keeps Oil prices elevated.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil sees sharp two-way price swings on Thursday as traders track rapidly changing US-Iran developments. At the time of writing, WTI is trading little changed around $88 per barrel after hitting an intraday high of $91.27.
Earlier in the day, crude prices jumped after reports of fresh attacks in the Middle East, with US armed forces targeting Iranian military sites and Iran claiming it had targeted a US airbase in the Gulf region. However, gains quickly reversed after an Axios report said the US and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement, sending WTI down to an intraday low near $86.28.
According to the report, the two sides agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the current truce, though the deal still awaits final approval from US President Donald Trump.
The latest developments raised hopes that both sides may be moving closer toward a deal. Still, Oil prices did not fall much as traders waited for more details and confirmation of a final agreement, keeping WTI trading near the lower end of its recent war-driven range.
Major differences also remain unresolved, including Iran’s nuclear program and control over the vital Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced new Iran-related sanctions on the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the US “won’t tolerate a tolling system in Hormuz” and warned that “any willing partners in tolling in the Strait of Hormuz will be penalized.”
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold rebounds on Thursday after slipping to a fresh two-month low near $4,366.
- The metal face headwinds as rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns and boost higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.
- Technically, XAU/USD remains bearish, trading below key moving averages on the daily chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) stages a rebound on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower following fresh headlines surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal and softer US inflation data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,480 after hitting an intraday low of $4,366 earlier in the day, its lowest level in two months.
Axios reported on Thursday that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary 60-day agreement to extend the current truce, though the deal still awaits final approval from US President Donald Trump. This comes after US armed forces carried out a second “defensive” strike this week on Iranian military facilities. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it targeted a US airbase in the Gulf region and warned of “more decisive” action if US “aggression” continues, according to state media.
On the data front, the core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% MoM in April, below market expectations and down from the 0.3% increase recorded in March. On a yearly basis, the Core PCE climbed to 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March and in line with analyst forecasts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.00, easing after hitting a seven-week high of 99.54 earlier in the day.
Although negotiations continue to face hurdles over Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is also pushing for sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets. US President Donald Trump told PBS News on Wednesday that Iran would not receive sanctions relief in exchange for giving up highly enriched uranium.
Until a final agreement is reached, downside in the US Dollar appears limited. Traders continue to favor the US Dollar (USD) over Gold as a safe-haven asset. The metal has remained on the back foot since the war began in late February, as markets increasingly focus on inflation risks stemming from rising Oil prices.
Higher energy costs are adding to inflationary pressures, heightening expectations that major central banks, including the Fed, may need to keep interest rates higher for longer or even raise them. As a result, US Treasury yields remain elevated, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that rising energy prices are “a downside risk to growth” and “a potential inflation driver.” He added that the Fed remains “firmly committed to restoring inflation to 2%” and noted that recent US economic activity “remains robust.”
Technical Analysis: Bears retain control below key moving averages
XAU/USD bounces off the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,399 while remaining below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader bearish outlook intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, which together suggest limited upside momentum and leave rallies vulnerable while the metal trades under the higher moving average.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA around $4,630 ahead of the 100-day SMA near $4,801 and only a sustained break above this barrier would ease the current bearish pressure.
On the downside, the 200-day SMA near $4,399 acts as the first meaningful support zone, where a break would expose deeper losses and reinforce the broader corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President, Alberto Musalem, crossed the wires on Thursday, and said that rate hikes may be needed if inflation doesn’t ease, at a Central Bank of Iceland and Northwestern University economic conference in Reykjavik.
Musalem said that “If we don’t see disinflation in the next one or two quarters, that would concern me,” as he acknowledged that the balance of risks of the Fed’s dual mandate has tilted more towards the inflation side than the labor market side.
Key highlights:
BASELINE OUTLOOK IS THAT INFLATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO COME BACK DOWN TO TARGET
SEE RISKS THAT INFLATION MAY NOT CONVERGE TO TARGET AS WE WOULD LIKE
THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE ECONOMY MIGHT REQUIRE A RATE INCREASE
IF WE DON'T SEE DISINFLATION IN NEXT 1-2 QUARTERS THAT WOULD CONCERN ME
HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WOULD ALSO CONCERN ME
THERE IS ALSO A SCENARIO THAT IN 2H OF YEAR WE COULD SEE GROWTH SLOWDOWN
IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN AND INFLATION FALLS, COULD ENVISION RATE CUT
RIGHT NOW RISKS TILTED MORE TO INFLATION SIDE
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- The US Dollar Index eases from seven-week highs as traders react to fresh US-Iran headlines.
- Axios reports Washington and Tehran reached a preliminary 60-day truce agreement.
- Fed’s Musalem says inflation could take longer to return to target and warns rate hikes remain possible.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trims earlier gains on Thursday as traders react to fresh geopolitical headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the index is trading around 99 after hitting a seven-week high near 99.54 earlier in the day.
The US Dollar initially strengthened on Thursday amid renewed attacks between the US and Iran, boosting safe-haven demand for the Greenback. However, risk sentiment improved after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary 60-day agreement to extend the current truce, though the deal still awaits final approval from US President Donald Trump. Trump asked for a few days to consider the final deal before making a decision.
Still, uncertainty remains high as both sides have previously failed to reach a final agreement amid differences over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier this week, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that the release of frozen Iranian assets remains part of any potential deal.
On the data front, softer-than-expected US inflation figures also weighed on the Greenback. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2% MoM in April after increasing 0.3% in March. The yearly reading edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%, matching market expectations.
Despite the softer inflation data, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continue to keep inflation risks in focus, reinforcing expectations that the US central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday his baseline outlook is that inflation will “take longer to come back down to target.” He added that “there is a scenario where the economy might require a rate increase” and warned that “if we don't see disinflation in the next 1-2 quarters, that would concern me.” Musalem also said, “There is also a scenario that in 2H of the year we could see a growth slowdown.”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- Axios report fuels optimism over a 60-day ceasefire deal.
- Hot Core PCE keeps Fed rate-hike risks firmly alive.
- UK political uncertainty limits Pound gains before Bailey’s speech.
The British Pound (GBP) pares some of its earlier losses and edges up by 0.08% on Thursday amid an Axios report that the US and Iran reached a deal, pending confirmation from US President Donald Trump. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3437 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3367.
GBP/USD recovers as ceasefire hopes pressure the Greenback
Axios reported that “US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give his final approval,” according to two US officials and a regional source involved in the mediation process.
According to the article, both sides are pending approval from senior leadership.
After the headline, the Greenback edged lower as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the performance of the USD against six other currencies, is down 0.17% at 99.05.
Data released earlier showed that US inflation remained above the 3% threshold in April, according to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The Core PCE rose from 3.2% to 3.3% YoY, driven by high energy prices stemming from the US-Iran war.
At the same time, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter was downward revised from 2% to 1.6% YoY in the second estimate, as revealed by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Also, the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 215K in the week ending May 23, exceeding forecasts of 211K.
Recently, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossed the wires. The St. Louis Fed President, Alberto Musalem, said that a rate hike might be needed if inflation doesn’t ease. Earlier, the New York Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy is in the right place given the outlook.
Across the pond, political turmoil is escalating as rivals to the current UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, position themselves to challenge Starmer’s leadership at the Labour Party.
This week, the UK economic calendar will feature a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. In the US, traders' focus will be on Fed officials Schmid, Bowman, Paulson and Daly.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3436. The pair sits just under the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) from the Moving Average Triple around 1.3445, leaving the near-term tone capped despite the broader recovery off the 1.3159 trend-line base. Price holds above the rising support trend line drawn from that low, but a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 hints at fading momentum as spot consolidates between this structural floor and the overhead SMA barrier.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Triple SMA cluster near 1.3445, with a stronger cap aligning with the prior downtrend-line break region around 1.3611. On the downside, the first layer of support is the current trend-line zone near 1.3436, ahead of the former break area around 1.3339, while a deeper setback would expose the broader structural base toward the 1.3159 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.09% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.19% | -0.40% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.15% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.29% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.40% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.14% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya assess Thailand’s fiscal stimulus as cushioning 2H2026 growth but not warranting a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upgrade. The Thai Helps Thai Plus package is seen as a targeted consumption support with low-to-middle multipliers, while Bank of Thailand (BoT) policy is expected to stay at 1.00% through 2026–27 as supply-led inflation persists.
Targeted stimulus, limited multiplier impact
"Thailand’s 1Q26 GDP outturn bought the authorities some time, but it did not change the basic policy problem: domestic demand remains uneven, real purchasing power is being squeezed, and the Middle East energy shock risks feeding through to margins, household confidence, and employment. The Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme — should therefore be read as a targeted fiscal shock absorber rather than a classic demand-boosting stimulus."
"Our working assumption for the fiscal multiplier remains 0.3–0.5 for the first-year GDP effect. The economic logic is straightforward: the scheme is well-targeted and timely, but Thailand is a small open economy, and this is a temporary consumption-support program rather than public investment."
"The macro impact is therefore useful, but bounded. Under full disbursement, our 0.3–0.5 multiplier implies that the THB175.7bn Thai Helps Thai Plus package could provide roughly a 0.3–0.4 ppt GDP cushion, while the THB120bn 60/40 co-payment leg alone could add around 0.2–0.3 ppt, assuming other factors remain unchanged."
"In terms of implications for monetary policy, Thailand’s policy mix is moving from rate cuts toward targeted fiscal and credit relief. That reinforces our BOT call: the policy rate should stay at 1.00% through 2026–27, as fiscal policy is now carrying more of the near-term stabilization burden, while supply-driven inflation raises the hurdle for further broad-based easing."
"In summary, the 1Q26 GDP bought time, and the fiscal stimulus package improves the 2H2026 downside buffer, but it remains a fiscal bridge rather than a structural growth upgrade. We therefore maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.5% for now and BOT on hold at 1.00% through 2026-2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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