Forex News
- USD/CAD slips as commodity-linked CAD gains support from rising Oil prices amid escalating Iran tensions.
- President Trump warned that countries trading with Iran would face a 25% US tariff.
- Traders await December US CPI data on Tuesday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground for the fourth successive session, trading around $59.40 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices gain traction amid supply concerns, which could be attributed to rising tensions in Iran. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later in the day.
US President Donald Trump, on Monday, warned countries trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on business with the United States, following threats of repercussions over civilian targeting, as Tehran cautioned the US and Israel against intervention, per Reuters.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after registering modest losses in the previous session. Traders await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due on Tuesday, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.
Markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) missed expectations, reinforcing a more dovish Fed outlook. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that Fed funds futures price in about 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.
The US Dollar weakened after federal prosecutors threatened to indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on a building renovation, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence. Investors are also awaiting a US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, expected on Wednesday.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- Australian Dollar gains cautious sentiment surrounding RBA outlook.
- Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 1.7% MoM in January to a three-month low of 92.9, extending December’s 9.0% drop.
- The US Dollar steadies as traders adopt caution amid Fed concerns.
The Australian Dollar strengthens against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence falling 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in January to a three-month low of 92.9, extending December’s sharp 9.0% drop amid shifting rate expectations.
ANZ Job Advertisements declined 0.5% in December, following an upwardly revised 1.5% drop in the prior month. Meanwhile, household spending increased 1.0% month-on-month in November 2025, easing from a revised 1.4% rise in October, as consumers remained cautious amid elevated interest rates and persistent inflation.
Australia’s mixed November Consumer Price Index (CPI) left the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook uncertain. However, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said that the November inflation data was largely as expected. Hauser added that interest rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon. Focus now shifts to the quarterly CPI report due later this month for clearer guidance on the RBA’s next policy move.
US Dollar struggles amid Fed independence concerns
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 98.90 at the time of writing. Traders await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due on Tuesday, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.
- The Greenback faced challenges amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. December’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 50,000 in December, falling short of November's 56,000 (revised from 64,000) and came in weaker than the market expectations of 60,000. However, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in November, while the Average Hourly Earnings climbed to 3.8% YoY in December from 3.6% in the previous reading.
- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the decline in the unemployment rate was welcome and described job growth as modest but stable. Barkin added that it is difficult to find firms outside healthcare or AI that are hiring and said it remains unclear whether the labor market will tilt toward more hiring or more firing.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Thursday that the Federal Reserve should continue cutting rates, arguing that lower rates are “the only ingredient missing” for even stronger economic growth and that the Fed should not delay.
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 but above the previous week’s revised 200,000. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.914 million from 1.858 million, indicating a gradual rise in the number of people remaining on unemployment benefits.
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday that the US Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 52.3.
- The US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a revised decline of 29,000 in November. The figure came in slightly below market expectations of 47,000. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.146 million in November. This reading followed the 7.449 million openings recorded in October (revised from 7.67 million) and came in below the market expectations of 7.6 million.
- China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 0.7% in November but below the 0.9% forecast. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.2%, reversing November’s -0.1% reading. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.9% YoY in December, improving from a 2.2% decline previously and slightly beating expectations of a -2.0% print.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,936M MoM in November, versus 4,353M (revised from 4,385M) in the previous reading. Exports fell by 2.9% MoM in November from a rise of 2.8% (revised from 3.4%) seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports grew by 0.2% MoM in November, compared to a rise of 2.4% (revised from 2.0%) seen in October.
Australian Dollar remains above 0.6700, nine-day EMA
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6710 on Tuesday. Daily chart analysis shows the pair rebounded toward an ascending channel, signaling a renewed bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.55 remains above the midpoint, supporting upside momentum.
The AUD/USD pair could target 0.6766, its highest level since October 2024. Further gains could see the pair test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.6860.
The immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6705, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6634. Further losses would open the downside toward 0.6414, the lowest since June 2025.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.16% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.11% | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.24% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.12% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.35% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.00% | -0.18% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.01% | 0.05% | -0.07% | 0.16% | -0.01% | -0.19% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.35% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- WTI price attracts some buyers to $59.54 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
Iranian security forces have killed hundreds of protesters, and Trump said the - US is monitoring the situation “closely.”
- Markets weigh escalating geopolitical risks against the prospect of additional sanctions supply returning to the market.
Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price gains traction over one-month highs amid rising tensions in Iran. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report on Tuesday.
Reuters reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. This action came after Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention
“Markets seem more focused on the intensifying unrest in Iran amid heated rhetoric and resilient fundamentals,” said Amarpreet Singh, Barclays’ analyst.
Nonetheless, prospects for more supply from Venezuela might cap the upside for th
WTI price. Trump said last week that Venezuela’s interim government agreed to give as many as 50 million barrels of “high-quality, sanctioned oil” to the US. Trump added that the US wants full access to Venezuela’s oil following the arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro by US forces over the weekend.
The API crude oil stockpiles report will be the highlight later in the day. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could boost the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, whic might drag the WTI price lower.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD sticks to a positive bias for the second straight day amid subdued USD demand.
- Fed independence fears act as a headwind for the buck despite reduced rate cut bets.
- Expectations for more BoE rate cuts could cap the GBP and the pair ahead of the US CPI.
The GBP/USD pair edges higher for the second straight day on Tuesday and looks to build on the previous day's recovery from the 1.3390 region, or a three-week low. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475 region, up nearly 0.10% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid growing worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence, and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. In fact, prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In a rare statement, Powell said that the threat of criminal charges against him is a consequence of the central bank setting interest rates based on the best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.
Despite the negative development, the downside for the USD remains limited amid reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which, in turn, could cap gains for the GBP/USD pair. A fall in the US Unemployment Rate, to a larger extent, overshadowed a miss in the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and backed the case for potentially stagnant monetary policy in the first quarter. This, in turn, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets as the focus shifts to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later today.
In the meantime, rising bets for two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2026 could act as a headwind for the British Pound (GBP) and also keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the GBP/USD pair. Traders this week will also confront the release of the US Producer Price Index on Wednesday. Apart from this, the monthly UK GDP report on Thursday would provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.0103 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0108 and 6.9734 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- EUR/USD flat lines around 1.1665 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Renewed concerns over the Fed’s independence could drag the US Dollar lower.
- ECB policymakers suggested the cycle is "most likely" finished.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1665 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Traders digested the US President Donald Trump administration's threat to indict the Federal Reserve (Fed) after Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he’s under criminal investigation.
Political risks around the US central bank could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and create a tailwind for the pair. Reuters reported on Sunday that the US Justice Department is investigating Fed’s Powell for possible criminal issues related to his June Senate testimony on the Fed’s building renovations. Powell called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
"This open warfare between the Fed and the U.S. administration ... it's clearly not a good look for the U.S. dollar," said Ray Attrill, National Australia Bank's head of currency strategy.
Signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be near the end of its rate-cutting cycle could provide some support to the shared currency. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said last week that interest rates are at an appropriate level, though he warned of “enormous uncertainty” due to geopolitical risks.
Financial markets currently see limited scope for immediate action, with a chance of rates remaining unchanged at the next meeting. Some analysts expect a rate reduction later in 2026, though a hike is considered unlikely given the subdued inflation backdrop.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. The headline and core CPI are projected to see a rise of 2.7% YoY in December. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses in the near term.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold price surges to around $4,600 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Criminal investigation into Fed’s Powell sparks independence crisis, boosting Gold price.
- Trump threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) jumps to near $4,600 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the rally after retreating from a fresh record high of $4,630 in the previous session amid uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December will take center stage later on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he’s under criminal investigation, sparking an independence crisis and triggering a flight to safety across global markets. Powell stated that the US Department of Justice had issued subpoenas to the central bank and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025 concerning a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
Additionally, tensions between Iran and the US could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold. US President Donald Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention. On Monday, Trump announced that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the US.
Traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday. The headline and core CPI are expected to see a rise of 2.7% YoY in December. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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