Forex News
German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declined again in April. The consumer spending measure fell 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), according to official data released by Destatis, while it was expected to have declined 0.4%. In March, Retail Sales dropped by 0.3% (revised from 2.0%)
On an annualized basis, Retail Sales decreased 0.3%, compared to the prior release of a 0.2% decline (revised from 2.0%).
Market reaction
No immediate reaction was observed in the Euro (EUR) after the data release. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair is down 0.04% on the day at 1.1655.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY rises to near 159.45 as BoJ rate hike uncertainty weakens Japanese Yen.
- The BoJ SoP of the April meeting showed that most policymakers expressed the need to raise interest rates in the near term.
- Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% higher at around 159.45 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) broadly underperforms amid uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on June 16.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.10% | 0.13% | 0.07% | -0.07% | 0.28% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.14% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.24% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.38% | 0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.03% | -0.18% | 0.18% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.15% | 0.21% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.38% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.30% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.25% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Higher oil prices due to the Middle East crisis-led energy supply shock have raised uncertainty over the Japan’s economic outlook.
Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current member of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Masazumi Wakatabe, said last week said in a meeting that it is important to understand whether the economy can withstand tighter monetary conditions, Reuters reported.
However, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers supported an interest rate hike in the near term, while warning of high inflation risks.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher at the start of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data week. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades higher at around 159.45 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.84, keeping the recent uptrend structure intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests buyers still retain the initiative while upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.84, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper corrective phase and expose lower levels on the chart towards 158.00. On the upside, the pair could advance towards an almost two-year high of 160.73 if it manages to decisively break above the May 28 high at 159.65.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Asian equities advance as tech shares extended gains on continued enthusiasm for the AI-driven rally.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI hit record highs of 67,231 and 8,874, respectively.
- Japanese stocks rise as local firms expanded global AI infrastructure, positioning the market to benefit from the tech surge.
Asian equities advance on Monday as technology shares extended gains amid continued enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence-driven rally. However, traders may adopt caution due to highly fluid developments surrounding United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations.
During the Asian hours, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI hit fresh record highs of 67,231 and 8,874, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up by 1.04%, trading around 25,450. However, China’s SSE Composite Index falls 0.12% to near 4,060 at the time of writing.
Traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East as oil prices advance and the US dollar strengthens amid stalled progress toward a permanent US-Iran ceasefire. Although these elevated geopolitical tensions keep energy markets in sharp focus, broader Asian equities remain well-supported by a steady global risk appetite.
Japanese stocks appreciate as domestic firms deepen their integration into the global expansion of AI infrastructure, helping position the local market among the strongest beneficiaries of the worldwide tech surge. Leading the gains in this sector were heavyweights like Kioxia Holdings and SoftBank Group.
On the data front, Japan's final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was confirmed at 54.5 for May 2026, matching preliminary estimates. While this is down from April’s peak of 55.1, which was the highest since January 2022, the latest reading still signals expansion, albeit at a slower pace supported by steady output growth. However, corporate capital spending flatlined in the first quarter, missing market expectations and marking a sharp deceleration from the 6.5% year-on-year growth seen in the final quarter of 2025.
South Korea’s KOSPI rises amid booming semiconductor exports and relentless AI-driven demand. The country's total exports surged 53% year-on-year to a record $87.8 billion in May, led by a staggering 169% jump in semiconductor shipments that reinforced optimism over the sector’s corporate earnings outlook. Samsung Electronics led the market advance, while investors also looked ahead to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to South Korea later this week, which has raised expectations for major new AI and semiconductor partnership opportunities.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
US President Donald Trump said that Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the United States (US) and those that are with us. His comments came after US Central Command (Centcom) stated that it struck targets in Iran over the weekend.
"Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does! President DJT,” said Trump on Truth Social.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.85% on the day at $88.45.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold remains on the back foot below a two-week high amid a combination of factors.
- Geopolitical risks revive demand for the safe-haven USD and cap the precious metal.
- Hawkish Fed bets further act as a headwind for the commodity amid a bearish setup.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Monday and moves further away from a two-week high, around the $4,600 neighborhood, touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction at the start of the new week amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the commodity. The precious metal, however, manages to hold above the $4,500 psychological mark as trades seem hesitant and opt to wait for further progress in US-Iran peace talks.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told state media on Sunday that talks and message exchanges with the US are ongoing, though he cautioned against reading too much into unconfirmed reports about the negotiations. Earlier, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, stated that the country will not accept any agreement until its national rights are fully secured. Apart from this, reports suggest that the US had hardened its negotiating position with Iran, raising fresh uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end a three-month-old conflict in the Middle East.
Moreover, differences over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate efforts to reach a deal. US President Donald Trump reportedly requested that edits related to the strategic waterway and enriched uranium be made to the US-Iran deal aimed at bringing an end to the fighting. Proposals are still being exchanged through Pakistani and other regional mediators, but it remains unclear if the sides are making much progress. Meanwhile, Israel expanded its ground assault in Lebanon in the battle with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group.
Reuters reported that Israeli forces seized the 900-year-old Beaufort Castle and are now operating past the Litani River. This expansion marks Israel’s deepest incursion into Lebanon since its withdrawal in the year 2000 and keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, underpinning the safe-haven USD. Meanwhile, the latest development triggers a goodish recovery in Crude Oil prices from over a one-month low, touched on Friday. This revives inflation fears and bolsters Fed rate hike bets. This further benefits the buck and contributes to capping the non-yielding Gold.
The market attention now shifts to the important US macro data, scheduled at the start of a new month. A rather busy week kicks off with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, due later today. The focus, however, will be on the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which could influence market expectations about the Fed's policy path and drive the USD demand in the near term. Apart from this, developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets and influence the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold bears have the upper hand; ascending channel/50-day SMA confluence holds the key
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains trapped inside a downward parallel channel and below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, moderating Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram together with a sub-50 Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 suggest rallies are likely to be sold while momentum stays soft.
However, the commodity last week showed some resilience below the very important 200-day SMA, which still underpins the broader uptrend. This makes it prudent to wait for a convincing break and acceptance below the said MA at $4,411.29 before positioning for a fall towards the channel support near $4,303.42. On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the channel’s upper boundary near $4,627.52, reinforced by the 50-day SMA at $4,628.82. A sustained break above this confluence would be needed to ease the current downside pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
