Forex News
- Trump says high tariffs on China are “not sustainable,” boosting the Dollar and easing trade tensions.
- Fed officials Waller, Musalem, and Kashkari signal support for further cuts but warn inflation remains hot.
- Eurozone inflation data meets estimates; traders eye next week’s US CPI for fresh direction.
EUR/USD dives 0.17% during the North American session on Friday as the Greenback trims its earlier losses as US President Donald Trump tempered his trade rhetoric on China. The pair trades at around 1.1666 after hitting a daily high of 1.1728.
Euro retreats from daily highs as risk appetite improves and Fed remarks stay cautiously dovish
Risk appetite improved ahead of Wall Street open as US President Donald Trump said that high tariffs on China were not sustainable and most likely increase tensions between the two countries. He added that he plans to meet Xi Jinping at the Asian Pacific reunion in South Korea.
After the headlines, the Greenback erased its earlier losses and rose. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of peers, is up 0.09% at 98.42.
The lack of economic data keeps traders leaning on Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossing the wires. Most of the remarks were slightly dovish, led by Governor Christopher Waller. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari, although favoring further cuts, stressed that inflation remains hot.
In Europe, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was broadly aligned with estimates in September.
Next week, the US economic docket remains empty, but the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Friday is widely awaited by market participants.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.38% | -0.57% | -0.92% | 0.14% | 0.20% | 0.10% | -1.03% | |
| EUR | 0.38% | -0.19% | -0.49% | 0.51% | 0.67% | 0.51% | -0.66% | |
| GBP | 0.57% | 0.19% | -0.26% | 0.70% | 0.85% | 0.70% | -0.50% | |
| JPY | 0.92% | 0.49% | 0.26% | 1.00% | 1.07% | 1.08% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.51% | -0.70% | -1.00% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -1.19% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.67% | -0.85% | -1.07% | -0.03% | -0.14% | -1.33% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.51% | -0.70% | -1.08% | -0.00% | 0.14% | -1.19% | |
| CHF | 1.03% | 0.66% | 0.50% | 0.17% | 1.19% | 1.33% | 1.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily market movers: The Dollar appreciates, despite Fed’s dovish comments
- Several Federal Reserve officials spoke on Friday, offering a cautiously dovish tone. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he supports a rate cut at the October meeting but reaffirmed his full commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed Musalem’s remarks, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the economy “is not slowing as much as we think,” suggesting resilience despite recent data softening.
- Eurozone inflation data came broadly in line with expectations in September, signaling stable price dynamics. Core HICP rose 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY, slightly above the 2.3% forecast. Headline HICP also climbed 0.1% on the month and 2.2% on the year, matching both projections and August’s readings.
- European Central Bank (ECB) officials maintained a cautious tone on Friday. ECB’s Olaf Sleijpen said that policy being “in a good place” does not mean it will stay there, noting that the economy has been more resilient than expected. ECB’s Joachim Nagel added that there is no need to act on interest rates for now.
- On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dovish, acknowledged the weakness of the labor market and added that the central bank should move to more “neutral” interest rates.
- Money markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting, with odds at 97%, according to the Prime Market Terminal probability tool.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD slips below 100-day SMA, further downside eyed
EUR/USD’s technical outlook remains bearishly biased, despite improving somewhat in the week. After reaching a weekly high of 1.1728, the shared currency tumbled below 1.1700, opening the door for further downside.
The EUR/USD first support would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1648. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 1.1600 figure, followed by 1.1550 and 1.1500.
On the flip side, resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1691, 1.1700 and the daily high of 1.1728. A breach of the latter will expose 1.1800 and the July 1 high at 1.1830.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Dow Jones clawed back around 240 points on Friday.
- Investors are shrugging off a recent downturn in regional banking and lending stocks.
- President Trump floated a softball hint that China tariffs might get walked back eventually.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found a near-term foothold to wrap up the trading week, rebounding around 240 points from recent lows and fighting to stay on the high side of key moving averages. Equities took a hit this week after multiple entities in the lending and banking sectors went bankrupt or flashed warnings about debt quality, sparking a brief period of wobbly sentiment. Investors recovered their footing to end the week.
Friday rebound takes Dow back from the brink
Friday’s equity market recovery was partly driven by hope of an easing in trade tensions after US President Donald Trump soft-balled the idea that his administration could eventually explore reducing tariffs on China. The Trump administration continues to appear more apprehensive about following through on its own threats to ramp up retaliatory tariffs on China, and investors are continuing to bank on a protracted cooling period in sweeping tariffs threatened or imposed by the Trump administration throughout 2025.
After a brief spat of angry social media posts and pulling out of planned sideline talks with China’s President Xi Jinping, President Trump has dragged himself back to the negotiating table. Fresh trade talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are now expected in the coming weeks, along with meetings between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The US government shutdown continues to roll onward with little sign of a quick resolution. Official datasets remain suspended or delayed, but this can only be good news for markets that remain hinged largely on impending interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). With official data running dark amid a federal funding freeze, Fed officials will have very limited access to data that could knock the US central bank off its path toward two quarter-point interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- The Canadian Dollar clawed back 0.3% against the US Dollar on Friday.
- A fresh bout of investor risk appetite has pushed the Greenback back down.
- Despite a one-day rebound, the Loonie still remains near multi-month lows against the US Dollar.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a fresh bid on Friday, reclaiming some lost ground against the US Dollar (USD), although the Loonie still remains trapped near six-month lows against the Greenback. The possibility of tariff easing from the US sparked a fresh round of investor risk appetite to close out an otherwise middling week that saw the US Dollar broadly gain ground. Investor nerves continue to fray at the hands of brinkmanship politics and policy setting from the Trump administration, and traders are looking for any excuse to pare back on risk-off bets as the trade gets crowded.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared this week that serious trade talks between Canada and multiple trading partners, including the US and China specifically, were underway in earnest. The announcement did little to sway CAD bidding momentum, but US President Donald Trump teased that he may be looking at easing China tariffs at some point in the future, causing an immediate wave of relief to wash through markets.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar finds relief amid easing Greenback flows
- The Canadian Dollar rose three-tenths of one percent against the US Dollar, paring back some of the week’s overall declines.
- The Loonie remains down slightly for the week, marking a fourth straight losing week against the Greenback.
- Canadian PM Mark Carney’s active trade negotiation announcement did little to assuage CAD concerns about the Canadian economic tipping over into a full-blown recession as US tariffs bite across a wide swath of Canadian industries.
- Donald Trump softballed the idea that China tariffs might not exist forever, prompting investors to pile back into risk bets and pare safe haven flows.
- Key Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data are due next week from both Canada and the US, on Tuesday and Friday, respectively.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
After spending much of the summer trading below both moving averages, USD/CAD broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in late July and has since built a steady series of higher highs and higher lows. The key development came earlier this month when the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA, a signal often interpreted as a shift in medium-term momentum from bearish to bullish. That crossover, combined with the pair’s strong push above 1.40 last week, marked a clear change in tone.
However, the latest candles suggest that upward momentum may be pausing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back from near overbought territory, and Friday’s red candle shows sellers stepping in after the rally toward 1.4278. The pullback toward the 1.40 level will be an important test; if buyers defend this area, it could turn into a new support zone. A close back below 1.39 would weaken the recent bullish structure and raise the risk of a deeper retracement.
In short, USD/CAD’s medium-term outlook has improved, but the pair may need to consolidate gains before any attempt to extend higher.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- Gold haven demand dented by Trump softening stance, boosting the US Dollar.
- US 10-year yield rises three bps, adding pressure to non-yielding assets like Bullion.
- Fed officials reaffirm commitment to 2% inflation goal ahead of key CPI release next week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls 2% after reaching a record high at $4,379 earlier on Friday, tumbles below $4,250, sponsored by US President Donald Trump's comment that triple-digit tariffs on China are unsustainable. At the time of writing, Bullion prices hover at around the $4,230 - $4,240 range.
Bullion tumbles below $4,250 as risk appetite returns and Treasury yields climb
The Greenback is recovering some ground, a headwind for Gold prices. Yet the biggest move is seen at US Treasury yields, with the 10-year T-note yield up nearly three basis points. US President Donald Trump commented that elevated threatened tariffs on China were not viable and most likely would increase tensions between the two countries.
Trump added that he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in a couple of weeks in South Korea. Those comments added to an improvement in risk appetite and pushed precious metals prices lower.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials had crossed the wires. St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem supports a rate cut at the October meeting but remains totally committed to getting inflation to the 2% target. Earlier, Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed Musalem’s comments, while Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari said that the economy is not slowing as much as we think.
Next week, the US economic docket remains almost empty, but the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Friday at 8:30 AM ET is widely awaited by market participants.
Daily market movers: Gold retreats as US Treasury yields rise
- Bullion prices are undermined as the US Dollar stages a comeback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.07%, at 98.40.
- Conversely, the US 10-year Treasury note yield is at 4.01%. US real yields — which correlate inversely to Gold prices — are also steady at 1.72%, up nearly two and a half basis points.
- Credit crisis woes emerged late Thursday as two regional banks announced losses of about $50 million in loan losses tied to two borrowers accused of providing false information.
- White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett said that US banks hold ample reserves and the administration remains optimistic about credit conditions. He added that if the government shutdown extends beyond the weekend, President Trump may ramp up actions, while calling the three expected Fed rate cuts “a good start.”
- XAU/USD has surged more than 62% in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and a de-dollarization trend. Also, strong flows into Gold ETFs lifted Gold price from its yearly opening price of $2,623.
- Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Gold to average $4,488 in 2026. HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce and projected it would reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026.
- Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's October meeting and another in December.
Technical outlook: Gold stays bullish despite testing $4,200
Gold price uptrend remains intact. The ongoing pullback opened the door for buyers, so step in at around the $4,200 milestone and a daily close above $4,250 could prompt traders to drive prices even higher.
Key resistance levels lie at $4,300, $4,350 and the all-time high of $4,389. Conversely, the first support would be the $4,200 mark, followed by October 17 daily low of $4,185.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- AUD/USD holds firm near 0.6500 on Friday as Trump’s softer China stance lifts risk sentiment.
- Trump says 100% tariffs on Chinese imports “not sustainable,” plans to meet Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea.
- The US Dollar Index recovers modestly from two-week lows but remains on track for weekly losses.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains well bid against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as US President Donald Trump’s softer stance on trade with China eases risk sentiment. The Aussie is showing resilience even as the Greenback strengthens, supported by Australia’s close trade ties with China.
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is holding firm around the 0.6500 psychological level, rebounding from an intraday low of 0.6443. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is recovering modestly from two-week lows, trading around 98.45, but remains on track for weekly losses.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that his plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports “is not sustainable,” signaling a willingness to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies. He also confirmed plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea.
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From a technical perspective, AUD/USD broke below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern last week, confirming a bearish continuation setup. Since then, the pair has traded in a relatively narrow range between 0.6450 and 0.6520, reflecting consolidation after the breakdown.
Immediate support is seen near the weekly low around 0.6440. A decisive move below this area could expose the multi-month horizontal support near 0.6400, which represents the next key downside target.
On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 0.6500 handle, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6550, which also aligns with the former neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern. Only a break and daily close above this confluence zone would negate the bearish setup and shift the short-term structure back to bullish.
Momentum indicators remain slightly bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 42, suggesting that while the downside pressure has eased, recovery attempts may face resistance unless broader risk sentiment improves.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- The Japanese Yen weakens as risk sentiment improves after Trump softens his rhetoric on China.
- Trump says 100% tariffs on Chinese imports “not sustainable,” confirming plans to meet Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea.
- Reuters poll shows Japan’s core inflation likely re-accelerated in September, supporting a cautious BoJ stance.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY rebounding after slipping to two-week lows earlier in the Asian session. The recovery comes as the Greenback regains footing after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on China, helping stabilize risk sentiment and lift the Dollar across the board.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 150.38, erasing intraday losses after bouncing off a session low near 149.38. The move reflects renewed demand for the USD as investors unwind defensive positions heading into the weekend.
Speaking on Friday, President Trump said his plan to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports “is not sustainable”, signaling a step back from his earlier hardline tone. He also confirmed he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea.
On the monetary policy front, traders are now fully pricing in back-to-back 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its October and December meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
St. Louis President Alberto Musalem, speaking on Friday, said the central bank should avoid a “preset course” and pursue a balanced approach to policy. He noted that monetary settings are “somewhere between restrictive and neutral,” adding he could support another cut if risks to jobs rise and inflation remains contained. Musalem also cautioned that there is limited room before further easing would make policy accommodative.
Meanwhile, earlier on Friday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that policymakers have “no preconceptions” about their next step and need to “examine more data” before deciding on any potential October adjustment. He emphasized vigilance toward global uncertainty and domestic wage momentum.
According to OIS pricing, markets now assign only a 10-20% chance of a rate hike at the October 29 -30 meeting, with a bias toward holding policy steady until inflation and growth confirm a durable uptrend.
A recent Reuters poll showed Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely re-accelerated to 2.9 percent YoY in September, up from 2.7 percent in August, suggesting underlying price pressure remains firm but not yet consistent with the BoJ’s sustainable 2 percent target.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.27% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.16% | 0.14% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.00% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.27% | 0.26% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.08% | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Bank of England (BoE) MPC member Megan Greene spoke about inflation dynamics, the global rate path, and risks in currency markets at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. She claimed that slack has opened up in the labor market, making the wage part of the wage-price spiral less likely.
Key Takeaways
Slack has opened up in labour market, making wage part of wage-price spiral less likely.
Latest rise in uk unemployment is in line with what we were expecting.
We should not cut rates every quarter, but rate cutting cycle not over."
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.16% | -0.15% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.15% | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- The Euro stays firm after the French government survived two no-confidence votes.
- The British Pound is underpinned by modest UK growth but weighed down by fiscal concerns.
- Market sentiment favors the Euro as political calm returns in France.
EUR/GBP trades steadily around 0.8700 on Friday at the time of writing, supported by improved political sentiment in France after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence motions in parliament. The vote outcome eased tensions following weeks of political turmoil, providing temporary support to the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP).
In the United Kingdom (UK), recent data showed the economy expanding slightly, though underlying pressures remain. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Thursday that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.1% MoM in August after a 0.1% contraction in July, while Industrial Production increased by 0.4% MoM. These results point to a mild recovery in manufacturing activity. However, the relief could be short-lived as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves confirmed that the Autumn Budget will include new tax hikes aimed at restoring fiscal stability, a move likely to weigh on domestic demand.
In the Eurozone, inflation data released earlier this week showed that price pressures remain stable but still above target. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.2% YoY in September, while core inflation stood at 2.4%, the highest since April. Several European Central Bank (ECB) officials have reiterated that monetary policy is likely close to its neutral point, suggesting limited room for further rate cuts.
Overall, the combination of political stabilization in France and lingering fiscal concerns in the UK continues to favor the Euro, keeping EUR/GBP well anchored around the 0.8700 level.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.07% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.17% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem spoke at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, DC. He said that he could support a path with another rate cut if more risks to jobs emerge and inflation is contained, and that the Fed should not be on a preset course and follow a balanced approach.
Key Comments
I could support a path with another cut if more risks to jobs emerge and inflation contained.
Fed should not be on preset course and followed balanced approach.
Sees limited space before rate cuts would make policy accomodative.
Important for Fed to be cautious right now
Doesn't make decisions on one data point amid broader shutdown.
Important for the Fed to go meeting by meeting on policy deliberations.
We are in a particularly uncertain moment.
It's premature what to say comes with FOMC meetings after October.
Tariff impacts still flowing into economy.
Tariffs will work through economy into middle of next year.
Retailers feeling increased pressure to pass on tariffs.
Consumer-facing firms facing more trouble passing through tariffs.
Purchasing power 'still an issue' for many Americans.
Inflation is still a very big thing for consumers.
It is really important for Fed to get inflation back to 2%.
Some are saying non-interest rate related costs matter more right now.
Tariffs don't appear to be passing through to services.
Service inflation has been at high level, needs more work to lower.
Totally commmitted to a target of 2%, believes Fed supports same.
By second half of 2026 will move back toward 2% inflation, but needs policy to lean against inflation.
Business contacts say job market has cooled.
Labor market is not a source of inflation.
Broadly speaking, job market is around full employment right now.
Job gains have been affected by immigration changes.
Sees 30k-80k job market breakeven rate.
We could see negative payroll prints but unemployment may not move.
Is not seeing an increase in layoffs
We are not in imminent problem for job market but risks have increased.
Monetary policy is somewhere been restrictive and neutral.
Financial conditions are accomodative right now.
Equity prices are not a key part of thinking about the economy.
You always have to worry about credit market risks.
Some recent stress in credit markets not tied to macro environment.
Contacts say credit conditions are really good right now.
Independence of monetary policy is critical but requires transparency and accountability.
Consumption from all income groups has been strong, wealthy benefiting from wealth effects.
Low probability next Fed leader will not be qualified."
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