Forex News
- GBP/USD jumped more than a big figure after Trump canceled a third night of strikes on Iran.
- Friday brings UK GDP with a contraction expected, the first test of a rally the Pound did nothing to earn.
- Next week compresses UK CPI, the Fed and the BoE into 48 hours, with both central banks parked on the same rate.
The British Pound spent most of Thursday doing what everything else did, leaking lower while Washington and Tehran traded fire, then exploding higher when President Trump canceled the evening's planned strikes just after 17:30 GMT and declared a deal all but done. GBP/USD gained more than a full big figure off the lows, and not one pip of it was earned in the UK.
That matters more for Cable than most, because the Pound now has to defend a borrowed rally through one of the heaviest scheduled stretches on the calendar. What the geopolitical whipsaw handed over on Thursday, the data gets to question from Friday morning onward.
Canceled by post, confirmed by no one
The shape of the day was the same across markets. US strikes ran Tuesday and Wednesday, Tehran answered at American bases across the Gulf, and Trump opened Thursday threatening to seize Kharg Island before canceling the night's raids and claiming approval on a meaningful deal at the highest level of Iranian leadership.
Iran has confirmed nothing. Its semiofficial Fars agency first reported that no text had been approved, then floated high odds of approval since Washington accepted Iran's own draft, while Trump talks up a weekend signing in Europe with the Strait of Hormuz reopening on signature. One capital is planning a ceremony; the other is publishing odds.
Washed-out momentum, intact gains
The chart work was done in one impulse. Cable leaked from just below 1.3400 in the London morning into the low 1.3300s by mid-afternoon, then the cancellation candle carved straight back through the range, cleared 1.3400 and stalled short of 1.3450.
The daily chart explains both of those numbers. Thursday's candle closed back above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which sits on the 1.3400 handle, while the rally stalled directly beneath the falling 50-day EMA near 1.3450. That leaves Cable wedged between its two most-watched averages, about as literal as technical tension gets.
Momentum supplies a further wrinkle, because the intraday Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has collapsed into oversold territory while price has barely surrendered anything above 1.3400. That reset usually favors the side holding the gains; the headlines decide which way it fires.
Friday's growth check comes first
The first bill lands at 06:00 GMT with monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for April, where consensus expects a -0.1% MoM contraction after 0.3% growth. Industrial Production is seen barely positive, Manufacturing Production is expected to give back part of a strong prior month, and Consumer Inflation Expectations follow from a 3.2% base.
The afternoon belongs to the US side, where the University of Michigan's preliminary June sentiment is expected to improve and the accompanying inflation-expectations readings, last near 4.8% on the one-year horizon, double as a referendum on how much war is baked into American price psychology. With Crude Oil unwinding its premium, those expectation lines are suddenly the most interesting numbers on the page.
Next week, two banks and one number
Wednesday stacks UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, last at 2.8% YoY, against the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision at 18:00 GMT the same evening. No change is expected to the 3.75% policy rate, but the projections are the event: the last set penciled rates ending the year below where they stand today, a promise that hot, war-flavored inflation prints, including Thursday's 6.5% YoY Producer Price Index (PPI), have been eating ever since.
Seventeen hours later, the Bank of England (BoE) answers from the identical 3.75% setting, with fresh UK jobs numbers landing at breakfast and one policymaker already voting for a hike at the last meeting. Two central banks on the same rate, deciding within a day of each other, against an inflation shock that may or may not have just ended by social media post: that is the setup Cable carries its borrowed gains into. UK Retail Sales close the week from a -1.3% prior.
Levels for a loaded calendar
Upside: Holding 1.3400 keeps 1.3450 in play, and a Tehran-confirmed weekend signing paired with a UK growth beat opens the road toward 1.3500.
Downside: A slip back through 1.3400 would unwind the 200-day EMA reclaim within a day; an Iranian denial or an ugly GDP print targets 1.3350 first, with the 1.3300 handle the fuller round trip.
Bias: Constructive above 1.3400 while the peace tape holds, but this is the major with the most scheduled ways to lose its gains, so let the calendar set the position size.
GBP/USD 5-minute chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The White House announced a deal with Iran, pending the signing of the latter.
- US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen once the deal is signed.
- WTI declined to fresh two-month lows in the $84.00 region, turned bearish in the near-term.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $85 early in the Asian session on Friday, its lowest since mid-April. The black gold fell alongside the US Dollar (USD) following a proclamation from United States (US) President Donald Trump announcing a settlement of war with Iran. He added it is subject to settling over the next few days, adding that the Strait of Hormuz will soon be reopened and that Tehran agreed on nuclear weapons.
US President Trump canceled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran, and noted the Strait of Hormuz will reopen as soon as the deal is signed.
Also, Iran’s FARS news agency noted that, given that the US accepted Iran's proposed text, the likelihood of its approval by Iran is high. Additionally, Axion reported that Iran confirmed talks produced an agreement in principle, but Supreme Leader Khamenei's approval is still needed.
WTI technical outlook
aligns with the 20-period SMA at $88.12, where the short-term bear trend is likely to be challenged, followed by the 100-period SMA at $90.85 and then the 200-period SMA near $94.70, which caps the broader recovery
From a technical standpoint, WTI is bearish, according to 4-hour chart readings. The black gold holds well beneath the 20-, 100-, and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) at $88.12, $90.85, and $94.70, respectively. The layered overhead SMAs suggest rallies are likely to be sold, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator slipping toward 38 and negative Momentum indicator readings hint that downside pressure is still dominating despite the recent stabilization attempt.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 20-period SMA at $88.12, where the short-term bear trend is likely to be challenged, followed by the 100-period SMA at $90.85 and then the 200-period SMA near $94.70, which caps the broader recovery. On the downside, initial support comes at $83, followed by the $80 psychological mark. Once below the latter, April's monthly low at $78.88 comes next.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- USD/JPY dropped hard after Trump canceled a third night of strikes on Iran and claimed a deal is close.
- Collapsing Crude Oil and falling US yields drove the move; hot PPI data could not compete.
- The slide does Tokyo's intervention work for free, for as long as the deal talk survives.
USD/JPY spent the entire session glued to the area around 160.50, and it took the cancellation of a war, rather than anything out of Tokyo, to finally knock it lower. Just after 17:30 GMT, President Trump called off the evening's planned strikes on Iran and declared a deal to end the conflict all but agreed.
The pair dropped a full big figure to lows just above 159.50 within two hours, even though US inflation data earlier in the day argued for the opposite trade. That tension is the real story of the session.
Two days of strikes, then a handshake claim
The reversal capped a brutal 48 hours. US forces struck Iran on Tuesday and Wednesday after negotiations stalled, and Tehran answered with ballistic missiles aimed at American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Trump opened Thursday by threatening to seize Kharg Island and the rest of Iran's energy export infrastructure.
By late afternoon the strikes were canceled, with the final points of a deal supposedly approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership. Tehran has confirmed none of it, and the naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place.
Whipsaw is the regime now
The closest thing to corroboration is a circulating note from Fars, a semiofficial Iranian agency, putting high odds on Tehran approving the text now that Washington has accepted Iran's own draft. The same agency reported hours earlier that no text was approved at all, and even the optimistic version concedes there is no final answer yet, which is why the note barely moved the tape.
Washington is filling the silence with logistics. Trump now talks about a signing as soon as this weekend in Europe, the Vice President in attendance, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening on signature, none of which Tehran has matched with a single official sentence. Until that changes, USD/JPY is trading the gap between a press conference and a government.
Hot inflation, falling yields, no contradiction
On paper, Thursday's US data was unambiguously Dollar-positive. The May Producer Price Index (PPI) printed at 1.1% MoM against forecasts near 0.7%, landing a day after a hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, and rate futures leaned a little further toward a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike rather than a cut. USD/JPY barely blinked.
The bond market has simply decided this inflation is a war surcharge, not a domestic problem. Brent collapsed more than 3% to its weakest level since April, near $90 a barrel, and the two-year Treasury yield shed roughly 7 basis points once the strikes were called off. Even the White House is marketing inflation as something that drops away the moment the war ends, which tells you where the pressure on yields, and on the pair, is coming from.
Tokyo's intervention, outsourced to Washington
For Japan, the canceled escalation is a double windfall. The country imports nearly all of its energy, so every Dollar that comes off the Crude Oil price trims both the import bill and the imported-inflation squeeze the economy has worn since February.
There is also the intervention math. With USD/JPY camped above 160.00, Japan's Ministry of Finance was back in the zone where it has previously spent heavily defending the currency, and the peace headline just delivered roughly a hundred pips of relief without a single Dollar sold. The catch is that the favor only lasts as long as the deal talk does.
The bounce is not impressing anyone
The chart shows a session-long coil around 160.50, then a waterfall that cut through 160.00 without a fight and only stopped just above 159.50. The recovery since has stalled below 160.00, a level that now flips from floor to ceiling.
Momentum is not helping dip buyers either. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has already reset to the middle of its range while price has clawed back only a fraction of the drop, a lopsided ratio that tilts the consolidation bearish rather than corrective.
Trading the headline regime
Upside: A reclaim of 160.00 and a push back toward 160.50 would say the market is fading the deal talk, with an Iranian denial the obvious trigger.
Downside: A break below 159.50 extends the unwind toward 159.00, with Tehran publicly matching Washington's weekend signing plans the catalyst that keeps the war premium draining.
Bias: Lower while de-escalation holds, and rallies into 160.00 are the preferred entry; this tape is repricing a war one social media post at a time, so size accordingly.
USD/JPY 5-minute chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD jumped after Trump canceled a third night of strikes on Iran and declared a deal all but done.
- Tehran has not confirmed any agreement, and Iranian media warned against taking the claim at face value.
- Crude Oil fell sharply as war premium drained out of energy markets, feeding the risk bid.
The Australian Dollar spent most of Thursday pinned beneath the 0.7000 handle while Washington and Tehran traded fire for a second straight day. The session turned just after 17:30 GMT, when President Trump announced he had canceled the evening's planned strikes and declared a deal to end the war essentially agreed.
AUD/USD ripped roughly three-quarters of a cent off its lows, a textbook risk-proxy reaction. The complication is that the rally rests on a peace agreement the other belligerent has not confirmed, announced by a president who had promised the hardest strikes of the war only hours earlier.
Two days of bombing, then a deal by dinner
The reversal capped a violent stretch. US forces resumed strikes on Iran on Tuesday and Wednesday after negotiations stalled, and Iranian fire brought down an Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran answered Thursday's pre-dawn raids with ballistic missiles aimed at US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
Trump opened Thursday vowing to hit Iran very hard and threatening to seize Kharg Island and the rest of its energy export infrastructure. By late afternoon, the strikes were off, with the final points of a deal supposedly approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership. The naval blockade of Iranian ports, notably, stays in place.
The signature that is not there
The skeptical reading writes itself, because Trump's list of approving parties named the US, Israel, the Gulf states and assorted mediators, and conspicuously not Iran. Iranian semiofficial media advised treating the announcement like his earlier claims, and the Revolutionary Guard pointed to a war's worth of contradictory statements from Washington.
Tehran's own signal management is its own warning. Fars, a semiofficial agency, first reported that no text had been approved at all, then circulated a note putting high odds on approval since Washington had accepted a draft Iran itself wrote, while conceding no final answer exists.
A venue, a guest list, no counterparty
Washington is acting as if the ink is already drying. Trump is floating a signing as soon as this weekend in Europe, with the Vice President attending and the Strait of Hormuz reopening on signature. One side has a ceremony being planned; the other has a news agency quoting odds. That gap is the whole trade in miniature.
Markets have seen this film before. A March pause in strikes collapsed Brent by double digits before Iranian outlets denied any talks existed, and April's ceasefire, which disintegrated this week, was sold as a definitive off-ramp. De-escalation headlines in this war carry a shelf life measured in weeks.
A risk proxy doing risk proxy things
The Aussie's role here is the familiar one: the currency market's preferred thermometer for global risk appetite. Brent fell more than 3% to its weakest level since April, near $90 a barrel, and cheaper energy is relief for a world economy paying a war tax at the pump since February.
The irony is that Australia exports energy, so a sliding Crude Oil complex is no clean win for its terms of trade. Nothing here came from Australian data, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was a spectator. This was a pure sentiment trade, which is exactly why it can be unwound at the speed of a deleted post.
The chart did all of it in two candles
On the intraday chart, AUD/USD spent the whole session capped below 0.7000, printing its lows beneath the handle around midday before the spike cut straight through the range. The pair extended to a touch above 0.7050 into the evening and is consolidating near the highs.
Momentum offers the one early caution. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is rolling over from overbought territory while price grinds sideways, normal digestion after a 70-pip impulse rather than a reversal signal, though it argues against chasing the top of the range.
Trading a deal that is not signed
Upside: A sustained hold above 0.7050 keeps the squeeze pointed at the 0.7100 handle, with the weekend signing confirmed by Tehran, not just Washington, the catalyst that gets it there.
Downside: The 0.7000 handle is now the line that matters. An Iranian denial or a fresh strike order would send AUD/USD straight back into the old congestion, with 0.6950 the next shelf below.
Bias: Constructive while the peace tape holds, but longs are rented rather than owned, sized for the chance that the next post reverses the last one.
AUD/USD 5-minute chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he has canceled planned military strikes against Iran as negotiators are close to reach an agreement on the final elements of a deal." The documents are pretty final shape, so we'll see," he said during an event at the Oval Office.
Key quotes:
Canceled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.
As President of the United States of America, I have canceled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.
Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved.
Naval blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized.
Time and place of signing to be announced shortly.
Signing soon.
Documents in pretty final stage.
Finalization possible in next few days.
Made a great settlement.
Spoke to Netanyahu.
Will talk to Turkey's Erdogan.
Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as we sign.
Trump told the Qatari Emir that efforts continue to complete final procedures before announcing arrangements to sign the agreement.
Iran has not yet agreed to any document for a memorandum of understanding with the United States, according to Iran's Fars News Agency.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.38% | -0.43% | 0.14% | -0.65% | -0.81% | -0.71% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.53% | -0.36% | -0.39% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.38% | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.52% | -0.36% | -0.40% | -0.34% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.56% | -0.33% | -0.37% | -0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.53% | -0.52% | -0.56% | -0.88% | -0.90% | -0.85% | |
| AUD | 0.65% | 0.36% | 0.36% | 0.33% | 0.88% | -0.03% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.81% | 0.39% | 0.40% | 0.37% | 0.90% | 0.03% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.71% | 0.32% | 0.34% | 0.28% | 0.85% | -0.02% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Commerzbank analysts report that USD/CNY is trading near 6.78, with their model implying a slightly stronger PBoC fixing versus the previous day. The Yuan is being influenced by China’s decision to tap domestic oil reserves rather than bid aggressively in global markets. Rising producer prices and subdued consumer inflation highlight margin pressures but have not yet triggered sharp FX moves.
Domestic oil reserves buffer Yuan impact
"China's factory gate inflation accelerated in May, with the PPI rising 3.9% yoy vs 2.8% in April. This was driven by a global energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran alongside a surge in AI infrastructure investments. In contrast, the CPI rose by 1.2% yoy, matching our expectation but missing the Bloomberg consensus of 1.3%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, slowed to 1.1% vs 1.2% in April."
"This widening divergence pushed the gap between factory and consumer prices to its widest level since June 2022. This indicates severe margin compression for downstream manufacturers who are struggling to pass on elevated raw material costs amid intense domestic competition."
"Meanwhile, to manage the fallout from the ongoing war in Iran, Beijing has begun drawing down commercial and strategic crude stockpiles rather than competing for expensive crude oils in the international market. Satellite data indicates that China tapped nearly 25mn barrels of crude in the month to 7 June."
"Daily inventory draws are projected to average approximately 1mb/d over the coming months. This volume represents about a third of the supply lost to China following the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a drop that remains manageable given the country's estimated 1.2bn barrels in total reserves."
"This reliance on domestic stockpiles has kept the impact of the global oil shock relatively muted. Beyond tapping reserves, structural changes in China’s transport system have given the economy flexibility during this energy shock. State-owned refiners have slashed processing rates to record lows and fuel exports have been limited under wartime preservation rules."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Trump says US-Iran agreement could arrive as soon as weekend.
- FARS report suggests Tehran may approve Iran’s proposed text.
- Hot PPI keeps Fed hike risk alive despite Dollar weakness.
Gold prices rally sharply on Thursday after US President Donald Trump revealed that the US and Iran are close to agreeing on a deal, which weakened the US Dollar and underpinned the yellow metal, trimming some of Wednesday’s losses. The XAU/USD trades at $4,212, up 3.50%
XAU/USD rebounds sharply as Dollar sinks on diplomacy breakthrough
US President Donald Trump recently said the US and Iran could sign a deal as soon as the weekend, which could open the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s linked FARS news agency revealed that “it seems that given that the United States has accepted the text proposed by Iran, the likelihood of this text being approved by the main authorities of the system is high.”
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of currencies, dives 0.42%, down to 99.66, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal.
US inflation data showed that produce prices increased by 6.5% YoY in May, higher than April’s 5.7% and the forecast of 6.4%. The core Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding energy and food, grew by 4.9% YoY, which is below the consensus of 5.4% and unchanged from April.
Worth noting that today’s PPI report, along with the CPI revealed a day ago, kept investors' expectations for a rate increase by the Federal Reserve towards the end of 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
The US economic schedule also included job figures as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6 rose by 229K, exceeding the 219K expected by analysts.
Ahead in the week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June on its preliminary reading, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold rises past $4,200 on US-Iran war deal
Gold has shifted bearish after reaching a six-month low of $4,023, with sellers driving the price below the previous low of $4,098, opening the door to further downside. Momentum favors further downside, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is oversold yet shy of the most extreme level below the 20 area. Hence, the downtrend remains intact, and further losses are expected.
If bullion prices plummet below $4,000, the next significant support level from supply and demand dynamics is the October 28, 2025, swing low at $3,886.
Upwards, XAU/USD must reclaim the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,443, paving the way to test $4,500.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1600 as RSI shows improving momentum.
- Break above 1.1600 exposes key SMA confluence resistance zone.
- Failure below 1.1600 risks retest of 1.1500 support.
The EUR/USD surges over 0.36% as the Greenback turns negative on the day, as US President Donald Trump cancelled strikes on Iran, saying that the US and Iran are ironing out the final points of a peace agreement. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1579.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Even though the EUR/USD bounced off the lows of the week at around 1.1589, it seems to be consolidating below 1.1600.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows that buyers are gaining strength, though the index is below the 50-neutral level, suggesting caution is warranted.
For a bullish resumption, the EUR/USD must clear 1.1600. Once hurdled, the next resistance is the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs at around the 1.1655-1.1676 area, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1689 ahead of 1.1700.
Conversely, if sellers keep EUR/USD below 1.1600, it opens the door to a retest of 1.1500. Below this level, the next stop would be the March 30 daily low of 1.1443. Below this level, the next area of interest would be 1.1400.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.39% | -0.46% | 0.11% | -0.67% | -0.80% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.50% | -0.38% | -0.36% | -0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.39% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.50% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.57% | -0.32% | -0.33% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | -0.50% | -0.50% | -0.57% | -0.87% | -0.87% | -0.79% | |
| AUD | 0.67% | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.32% | 0.87% | -0.01% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.80% | 0.36% | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.87% | 0.01% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.21% | 0.79% | -0.07% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 12:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply to the 99.60 level after climbing to a three-month high earlier in the session, as investors locked in profits despite the United States (USD) Core Producers Price Index (PPI) rising 0.4% MoM in May and holding at 4.9% YoY. The pullback in the US Dollar (USD) provided some relief across major currency pairs.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.43% | 0.16% | -0.58% | -0.67% | -0.57% | |
| EUR | 0.36% | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.51% | -0.32% | -0.30% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.38% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.53% | -0.29% | -0.28% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.58% | -0.26% | -0.23% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.51% | -0.53% | -0.58% | -0.83% | -0.79% | -0.73% | |
| AUD | 0.58% | 0.32% | 0.29% | 0.26% | 0.83% | 0.03% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.67% | 0.30% | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.79% | -0.03% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.57% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.73% | -0.08% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rebounds toward the 1.1580 area after initially falling following the European Central Bank's (ECB) 25-basis-point rate hike. However, gains remain limited after sources familiar with the matter indicated that ECB policymakers are leaning toward a July pause if energy prices remain near current levels, while still leaving the door open for another possible September rate hike.
GBP/USD advances toward the 1.3420 region as broad USD weakness supports the pair.
USD/JPY slips back below the 160.00 area to 159.70 as the decline in the US Dollar offsets support from elevated US Treasury yields.
AUD/USD recovers above the 0.7050 mark after trading near a two-month low earlier in the day. The Australian Dollar found support amid a softer Greenback.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil trades near $87.00 per barrel US President Donald Trump said he would decline further bombing of Iran as negotiations were moving forward.
Gold rises toward the $4,190 region as the retreat in the US Dollar improves demand for the precious metal.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, June 12:
- Japan Industrial Production (Apr)
- UK Inflation Expectations (Q2)
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
- US Michigan Inflation Expectations (Jun)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
BNY relays that the Bank of Thailand sees no need for a special MPC meeting, as the Baht has weakened only modestly during the U.S.–Iran conflict. The central bank cites strong external buffers and notes limited foreign selling, with signs of inflows returning to long-term bonds and equities. Indonesia’s emergency hike contrasts with Thailand’s more patient stance.
Stable Baht lets BOT stay patient
"The Bank of Thailand said no special Monetary Policy Committee meeting is needed as the baht has moved steadily despite pressure from the U.S.–Iran conflict."
"BOT spokesperson Chayawadee Chai-anant said the currency has weakened only slightly, while Thailand’s external position remains strong enough to absorb global market volatility."
"The baht has fallen about 5.4% since the conflict began, less than many regional currencies, and foreign investors have sold only around USD 1.3bn of Thai assets, with signs of inflows returning to long term bonds and equities."
"The BOT stressed that international reserves, financial stability, and the current account continue to support the economy."
"Indonesia’s central bank hiked rates by 25bp in an emergency meeting and is expected to hike again in their scheduled meeting next week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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