Forex News
- GBP/JPY attracts some sellers at the start of a new week, though it lacks follow-through.
- Reviving safe-haven demand and intervention fears boost the JPY, weighing on the cross.
- The BoE’s hawkish tilt acts as a tailwind for the GBP and should limit losses for spot prices.
The GBP/JPY cross kicks off the new week on a softer note and erodes a part of Friday's strong gains to a fresh high since August 2008 – levels just above the 211.00 mark. The downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, with spot prices rebounding a few pips from the Asian session trough and currently trading around the 210.80-210.75 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.
Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, concerns about renewed Israel-Iran conflict, and rising tensions between the US and Venezuela boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets. This, along with speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency, benefits the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left the door open to further tightening after raising its rate to a 30-year high on Friday, though it offered little clues about the future policy path. Moreover, worries about Japan's worsening fiscal condition, aggravated by a steep rise in the Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish tilt supports the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/JPY cross.
As was expected, the BoE MPC voted 5-4 to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. However, a close vote split revealed differences within the committee, especially after the recent inflation surprise. This, in turn, forced investors to scale back their expectations for more aggressive easing next year. Moreover, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling acts as a tailwind for the GBP and warrants caution before positioning for deeper GBP/JPY losses.
Traders now look forward to the release of the final UK Q3 GDP print for some impetus amid relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the year-end holiday season. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY cross has formed a near-term top around the 211.00 mark.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.05% | -0.25% | -0.18% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.10% | -0.04% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.19% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.17% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.17% | -0.05% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.15% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold price jumps to a record high in Monday’s early European session.
- Weaker US Dollar and safe-haven flows support the Gold price.
- Financial markets are set for muted trading as traders look ahead to the long holiday period.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to an all-time high near $4,300 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The precious metal gains momentum on the expectation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts after signs of softer US inflation and cooler jobs reports. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
Additionally, persistent safe-haven demand amid the Israel-Iran conflict and the rise in US-Venezuela tensions might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. It’s worth noting that traders seek assets that can preserve value during periods of uncertainty, which supports the Gold price.
Financial markets are likely to trade in a subdued mood, and traders might book profits ahead of the long holiday period. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal. The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index report for September will be published later on Monday. On Tuesday, the preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) will be in the spotlight.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold rises amid Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven flows
- The US is still in pursuit of a third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials told Reuters on Sunday, as US President Donald Trump intensifies an oil blockade on Nicolás Maduro’s government.
- Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said over the weekend that officials are preparing to brief US President Donald Trump about options for attacking Iran again, according to Reuters.
- The final reading from the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index was downwardly revised to 52.9 in December from a preliminary reading of 53.3. Economists had expected the index to be upwardly revised to 53.4.
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good place to pause, and she will assess the effects of 75 basis points (bps) of rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, per Bloomberg.
- Financial markets are pricing in only a 21.0% chance the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in January, after it reduced them by a quarter-point at each of its last three meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold stays bullish and prepares to challenge its record high
Gold trades in positive territory on the day. According to the four-hour chart, the yellow metal maintains the bullish outlook as the price is well-supported above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands widen and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline, keeping the bulls in check.
The immediate resistance level for XAU/USD emerges at an all-time high of $4,381. A clean break above this level could set Gold up toward the $4,400 psychological mark.
On the flip side, sustained trading below the December 20 low of $4,337 could invite fresh selling pressure and drag the price down to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band of $4,307, followed by the 100-day EMA of $4,253.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Japanese Yen kicks off the new week on a positive note amid a combination of factors.
- Reviving safe-haven demand benefits the JPY amid renewed government intervention fears.
- A modest USD downtick further weighs on USD/JPY, though the downside seems cushioned.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against a retreating US Dollar (USD) and draws support from a combination of factors. Rising tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with concerns about renewed Israel-Iran conflict and persistent uncertainties stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, boost demand for the safe-haven JPY. Furthermore, comments from Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, fueled speculation about a possible government intervention and further benefited the JPY.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda left the door open to further tightening, though he remained vague on the exact timing and pace of future rate hikes. Adding to this, worries about Japan's worsening fiscal condition, aggravated by the recent steep rise in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Adding to this, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could help limit deeper USD losses and offer some support to the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen is underpinned by reviving safe-haven demand, renewed intervention speculations
- Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Monday that he is concerned about one-way moves and warned of appropriate action against an excessive decline in the Japanese Yen.
- The US intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend and is in active pursuit of a third in less than two weeks. This comes after US President Donald Trump last week ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
- Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that officials are concerned that Iran is reconstituting nuclear enrichment sites and are preparing to brief Trump on options for attacking the missile program again, NBC News reported on Saturday.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide said on Sunday that changes made by the Europeans and Ukraine to US proposals did not improve prospects for peace. This contributes to driving safe-haven flows towards the JPY.
- The Bank of Japan, as was widely expected, raised its policy rate to 0.75%, or a 30-year high, at the end of the December meeting on Friday and reiterated that it would continue to hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.
- In the post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank will closely look at the impact of the latest interest rate change, and the pace of monetary adjustment will depend on economic, price, and financial outlooks.
- Ueda, however, did not offer clarity on future hikes. Moreover, concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal health – led by a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's spending plan – might cap gains for the JPY.
- The recent hawkish comments from influential Federal Reserve officials pushed the US Dollar to a one-week high on Friday and should contribute to limiting any meaningful corrective slide for the USD/JPY pair, warranting caution for bears.
- In fact, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that monetary policy is in a good place to pause and assess the effects of 75 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.
- Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater possibility of two more interest rate cuts by the US central bank in 2026. This keeps a lid on a further USD appreciating move ahead of the delayed US Q3 GDP growth figures on Thursday.
USD/JPY could find decent support and attract dip-buying near 157.00 resistance breakpoint
Friday's breakout through the 156.95-157.00 horizontal barrier was seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent fall is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the said resistance breakpoint. Some follow-through buying, however, could pave the way for deeper losses towards the 155.50 intermediate support en route to the 155.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken, might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
On the flip side, bulls might await a sustained move beyond the 157.85-157.90 region, or the multi-month top, before placing fresh bets. The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the positive move towards the next relevant hurdle near the 158.45 area before aiming to challenge the year-to-date peak, around the 159.00 neighborhood, touched in January.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Australian Dollar gains ground amid cautious sentiment surrounding the RBA policy stance.
- The People’s Bank of China left one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged. The one- and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
Traders will likely focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes due on Tuesday, for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook and its assessment of inflationary pressures. As of December 18, the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures February 2026 contract was trading at 96.34, implying a 27% probability of a rate increase to 3.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.
US Dollar breaks three-day winning streak despite cautious Fedspeak
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 98.60 at the time of writing. Traders await the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter due on Tuesday.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good place to pause and assess the effects of 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, per Bloomberg.
- The Summary of Economic Projections, or so-called "dot plot," indicated a median expectation of only one additional rate cut in 2026. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Thursday that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.7% in November. This reading came in below the market consensus of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the US core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, missing the expectation of 3.0%. This figure marks the slowest pace since 2021.
- US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be someone who believes in lower interest rates "by a lot." Trump further noted that he will soon announce a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration to become chair of the central bank, reiterated his dovish stance on interest rates during a CNBC forum. “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral,” Waller said.
- Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations, which rose to 4.7% in December from November’s three-month low of 4.5%, support the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.
Australian Dollar hovers around nine-day EMA above 0.6600
The AUD/USD pair is trading below 0.6620 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair is hovering around the lower ascending channel boundary, indicating the broader trend remains bullish with support holding, while further price action may provide clearer direction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.05, reflecting neutral-to-bullish conditions and building momentum. It remains above the midline, keeping bulls in control.
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is trending higher and sits just above the spot, capping upside attempts. However, it has flattened over the past session, signaling sideways short-term momentum. The AUD/USD pair maintains a modest uptrend as the nine-day EMA slope remains positive while price consolidates just below the average.
The AUD/USD pair is hovering near the nine-day EMA at 0.6620. A sustained break above this level would bolster short-term momentum, opening the way toward the three-month high at 0.6685 and then 0.6707, the highest since October 2024. On the downside, a decisive break below the ascending channel could increase downside pressure, exposing the six-month low near 0.6414, marked on August 21.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 0.07% | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.10% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.12% | 0.08% | -0.14% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
- USD/CHF weakens ahead of the looming US third-quarter GDP Annualized for Q3 due on Tuesday.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
- Traders await Tuesday’s Swiss ZEW Expectations survey for business cues and clarity on the SNB’s rate outlook.
USD/CHF pares its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.7940 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles ahead of Tuesday’s release of the US third-quarter Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter.
The US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good position to pause and assess the effects of the 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.
The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
However, US President Donald Trump said last week that the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be someone who believes in significantly lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration for the role, said, “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral.”
Traders will likely observe the Swiss ZEW Expectations survey for December due on Tuesday for fresh signals on business and employment conditions, while seeking clarity on the Swiss National Bank’s rate outlook, with a return to negative rates seen as unlikely due to potential harm to savers and pension funds.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,658.96 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,499.52 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,651.60 per tola from INR 145,791.90 per tola on friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,658.96 |
10 Grams | 126,589.70 |
Tola | 147,651.60 |
Troy Ounce | 393,742.00 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EUR/JPY weakens to around 184.35 in Monday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps the bullish bias, with bullish RSI indicator
- The first upside barrier emerges at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 183.13.
The EUR/JPY cross loses traction to near 184.35 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid concerns about rising tensions between the US and Venezuela and persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from Israel–Iran tensions, which boost the safe-haven flows.
Additionally, verbal intervention from Japanese officials might provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said on Monday that he is concerned about foreign exchange moves and will take appropriate action against excessive actions.
Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY holds well above a rising 100-EMA at 182.02, reinforcing a bullish short-term bias. The average continues to ascend, aligning with higher lows. Bollinger Bands have widened and price hovers just below the upper band at 185.00, pointing to robust upward momentum and stretched conditions. RSI at 69.51 sits near overbought, confirming strong buying pressure.
Volatility expansion within the Bollinger envelope favors trend continuation, but a failure to clear the upper band would encourage consolidation. Pullbacks could test the middle band at 183.13, while the 100-EMA at 182.02 and the lower band at 181.27 would underpin deeper retracements. A decisive break above the upper band would extend the rally, whereas a close back below the midline could shift momentum toward range normalization.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- US Dollar Index depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of looming US Q3 GDP Annualized for Q3 due on Tuesday.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
- CME FedWatch suggests a 79.0% chance of a January hold, while 25-basis-point cut odds fell to 21.0%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 98.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders await Tuesday’s release of the US third-quarter Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter, which will offer insight into economic health and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate moves.
The US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good position to pause and assess the effects of the 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.
The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 52.9 in December from 53.3 prior. Consumer Expectations Index fell to 54.6 from 55.0. Meanwhile, One-year Inflation Expectations were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in both the initial estimate and the prior month.
Traders are also focusing on further comments from US President Donald Trump, who said last week that the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be someone who believes in significantly lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration for the role, said, “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Silver price jumps higher on renewed tensions between Israel and Iran.
- Israel raised concerns over Iran’s reconstitution of its nuclear facilities.
- The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the January policy meeting.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 2.5% higher to near $69.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday, the highest level ever seen. The white metal strengthens as investors shift to a safe-haven fleet on renewed tensions between Israel and Iran.
According to a report from NBC News, Israeli officials have grown increasingly concerned that Iran is expanding production of its ballistic missile program and reconstituting its nuclear facilities, which were damaged by Israeli military strikes earlier this year, and are preparing to brief United States (US) President Donald Trump about options for attacking it again.
The scenario of geopolitical tensions increases demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
On the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy front, investors remain confident that the central bank will not reduce interest rates in the January policy meeting. Fed dovish expectations for the January meeting have not accelerated, despite the release of the soft US inflation data for November.
On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November showed that the headline inflation cooled down to 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) from 3% in October. Economists expected the inflation data to come in higher at 3.1%. The so-called core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy items, dropped to 2.6% from estimates and the prior reading of 3%.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher around $69.02 at the start of the week. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average at $61.14 rises firmly and sits well below the price. The wide positive spread underscores a strong uptrend but also stretched conditions.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 77.44 is overbought, and a cooling phase could follow. A rising trend line from $49.96 underpins the bullish bias.
With price extended above the 20-EMA, pullbacks could find support at $61.14, preserving the advance. Momentum remains robust, yet the overbought RSI may cap near-term gains; a break below the trend line near $65 would weaken the bias and open the door for a deeper retracement toward the December 3 high near $59.00. Looking up, the psychological level of $60.00 would act as major barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/CAD may rise as advancing Oil prices fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions.
- US–Venezuela tensions escalated after the US pursued another vessel near Venezuelan waters following tanker seizures.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
USD/CAD moves little after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3800 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair may come under pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from rising Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $57.00 per barrel at the time of writing, with prices advancing amid concerns over potential supply disruptions. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated after the US reportedly pursued another vessel near Venezuelan waters following the seizure of two Oil tankers this month.
Meanwhile, focus also remains on Eastern Europe, where Ukraine struck a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time, after earlier attacks on Lukoil facilities in the Caspian Sea. On Sunday, US and Ukrainian officials said talks in Miami were “productive and constructive,” though no breakthrough was announced.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good position to pause and assess the effects of the 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index was revised downward to 52.9 in December from 53.3 previously. Consumer Expectations Index fell to 54.6 from 55.0. Meanwhile, One-year Inflation Expectations were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in both the initial estimate and the prior month.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
