Forex News
- USD/CHF ticks higher to near 0.7925 as the US Dollar continues to trade firmly.
- Iran called Trump’s 15-point plan “extremely maximalist and unreasonable”.
- The SNB could intervene against excessive appreciation in the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair ticks higher to near 0.7925 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains amid growing doubts over an early ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, following the release of Tehran’s conditions.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near Wednesday’s high around 99.70.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Tehran has also called for a new order in the Strait of Hormuz that would allow it to collect transit fees, as well as guarantees that the war would not restart, an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, and no interference in Tehran pursuing missile program. In response, a US official has described the demands as “ridiculous and unrealistic”.
Before Tehran’s conditions, US President Donald Trump proposes a month-long ceasefire and a 15-point settlement plan delivered through Pakistan to Iran, which was rejected by Tehran, calling it “extremely maximalist and unreasonable”, by a senior Iranian official while speaking with Al Jazeera.
The uncertainty over the outlook of the Middle East war is expected to keep underpinning the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades almost flat against its major currency peers, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has expressed readiness to intervene in foreign markets against excessive appreciation in the domestic currency.
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said in his press conference post the monetary policy announcement, “We have increased our readiness to intervene in forex markets to dampen rapid Swiss Franc appreciation."
- Dow Jones futures fall as sentiment turns cautious amid fading hopes of a Middle East conflict resolution.
- Iran reportedly rejected the US 15-point plan, proposing five conditions instead.
- TD Securities strategists say the Fed faces mixed signals as the conflict-driven oil shock complicates the outlook.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.39% below 46,550 during European hours, ahead of the United States (US) regular market open on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.40% and 0.44% to near 6,610 and 24,250, respectively, at the time of writing.
US stock futures move lower as market sentiment turns cautious amid diminishing hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. Iran has reportedly rejected the United States’ 15-point proposal to end the war, instead outlining five conditions that include guaranteed compensation for war damages and sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said in a post on X that it has carried out a series of strikes on Isfahan in central Iran, signaling further escalation.
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir said the Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing mixed signals as the conflict-driven oil shock complicates the outlook. They noted that the US economy remains uneven, with inflation and growth dynamics pulling policy in different directions. As a result, they expect the Fed to stay on hold in the near term, while leaving room for potential rate cuts later in 2026 if conditions evolve favorably.
However, US equities ended higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 gained 0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.77%, supported by a pullback in oil prices. Investors now turn their attention to weekly Initial Jobless Claims and speeches from several Fed officials.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Gold extends the overnight pullback from the 100-day SMA amid hawkish central bank expectations.
- Geopolitical risks fuel inflation fears and Fed rate hike bets, lending some support to the USD.
- The technical setup favors bears and warrants some caution before positioning for any recovery.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims a part of its intraday losses to the $4,415 area and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's rejection slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Any meaningful recovery, however, seems elusive in the wake of hawkish central banks and a bullish US Dollar (USD), which tends to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of this week's goodish recovery from a technically significant 200-day SMA support near the $4,100 mark, or a four-month low.
Despite US President Donald Trump's ceasefire rhetoric, Iran publicly rejected claims of ongoing negotiations and said that there is no chance of a deal between the two adversaries. Moreover, Iran turned down a 15-point ceasefire proposal from the US and has reportedly set sweeping demands to wind down the widening Middle East conflict. Apart from this, the deployment of additional US troops in the region raises to the risk of further escalation of the conflict, which continues to underpin the USD's global reserve currency status and, in turn, is seen weighing on the Gold price.
Meanwhile, energy infrastructure in Iran remains under pressure. Adding to this, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for a hawkish stance from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, traders have nearly priced out the possibility of any further rate cuts by the Fed and are rapidly increasing bets for a hike by the end of this year. This triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which further supports the USD and contributes to driving flows away from the Gold.
The XAU/USD pair remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, and volatility is expected to remain elevated amid speculation of a potential US ground operation to seize Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold seems vulnerable while below the $4,600 confluence hurdle
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAU/USD pair holds below the 100-day SMA, which capped the overnight move up, suggesting a corrective phase within a broader downtrend. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory with the line below its signal line, reinforcing persistent downside momentum. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-30s after dipping below 30, indicating that bearish pressure dominates but short-term oversold conditions could slow the decline.
Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the monthly swing high, reinforcing a key barrier. A daily close above that area would open the way toward the 50.0% retracement level at $4,770, where sellers could reappear. On the downside, initial support aligns near the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level at $4,422, ahead of the recent swing low at $4,407. A break below this band would expose the $4,300 region, while only a recovery back above $4,614 would start to erode the current bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Danske Research Team expects the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank (NB) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4% at the upcoming meeting, reflecting Middle East-related uncertainty and volatile energy prices. The bank anticipates guidance for an unchanged rate through year-end, followed by a cautious decline, but flags upside risk from global rate expectations and a possible hike if inflation stays high.
Rate on hold but hike risk remains
"In Norway, we expect Norges Bank (NB) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4% at today's meeting, in line with market expectations."
"Due to the great uncertainty and fluctuations in financial factors related to the situation in the Middle East, we expect NB to signal an unchanged policy rate until there is more information about the development in energy prices and the consequences for inflation."
"We expect NB to emphasize that they are ready to hike the policy rate if inflation remains high or rises."
"We expect the rate path in the Monetary Policy Report to show an unchanged policy rate for the rest of the year, followed by a cautious decline in the coming years."
"The risk is on the upside, as the rate path could indicate a certain probability of a rate hike later this year, driven by an increase in global rate expectations."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB economist analysts Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann report that GBP/USD traded softer, closing at 1.3366 after a narrower 1.3359–1.3436 range than expected. They see mild downward pressure intraday, though a move to 1.3320 is unlikely. Over one to three weeks, the outlook remains mixed, with the Pound expected to oscillate between 1.3220 and 1.3480 and medium‑term risk of a drop toward 1.2945–1.3010 on a weekly close below 1.3300.
Pound holds in broad range against Dollar
"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP appears to be facing mild downward pressure and is likely to trade with a downside bias today. However, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3320. Note that there is another support level at 1.3340. To sustain the mild downward pressure, GBP must hold below 1.3410, with minor resistance at 1.3395."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (23 Mar, spot at 1.3320), we indicated that “the recent choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook.” We also indicated that GBP “could trade between the two major levels of 1.3220 and 1.3480." There is no change in our view. "
"1-3 MONTHS VIEW: A weekly close below the key support at 1.3300 could trigger a decline toward the major support zone at 1.2945/1.3010. (dated 06 Mar 2026, 1.3310)"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near the weekly low set this Thursday.
- Geopolitical risks and hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
- The muted reaction to RBA Kent’s hawkish remarks backs the case for further losses.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday and oscillates in a narrow range, just above a weekly trough set earlier this Thursday. Spot prices trade around mid-0.6900s during the early European session, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain well within striking distance of the lowest level since early February, touched on Monday.
Despite US President Donald Trump's ceasefire rhetoric, the global risk sentiment remains fragile as Iran has publicly rejected claims of ongoing negotiations and said that there is no chance of a deal between the two adversaries. Furthermore, Iran turned down a 15-point ceasefire proposal from the US and has reportedly set sweeping demands to wind down the widening Middle East conflict. Apart from this, the deployment of additional US troops in the region points to the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. This continues to underpin the US Dollar's (USD) status as the global reserve currency and acts as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, energy infrastructure in Iran remains under pressure. Adding to this, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifts WTI Crude Oil prices back above the $91.00 mark, fueling inflation concerns and bolstering bets for a hawkish stance from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields and further underpins the USD. This overshadows Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent's hawkish remarks and does little to offer any support to the Australian Dollar (AUD), suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
In a speech in Sydney, Kent said that the Iran war tightens financial conditions but also increases the risks of an inflation spiral, and policymakers would need to cap inflation amid surging energy prices. Kent further added that the Board will set monetary policy to achieve low, stable inflation and full employment. Meanwhile, China's defence ministry urged all parties to stop military actions to prevent the war from spreading and added that the country will work to de-escalate. The muted market reaction validates the negative outlook for the AUD/USD pair, suggesting that any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and fade rather quickly.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Silver gives away recent gains on Thursday, falling back to levels below $70.00.
- The precious metal loses ground as Iran rejects the US proposal for a ceasefire.
- XAG/USD remains trapped within a bearish channel, with bulls capped below the $73.00 area.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday, testing levels below the $70.00 psychological level at the time of writing. The precious metal is losing the positive momentum seen earlier this week, as the US Dollar (USD) picks up with market hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East starting to wane.
Iran has rejected the 15-point plan proposed by the US to end the war in the Middle East and denied intentions of holding negotiations with Washington. An anonymous official from the Islamic Republic also affirmed in an English-language broadcasting TV that Iran’s government has its own demands for a peace deal, AP reports.
Meanwhile, drones and missiles continue flying in the region, and the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck for approximately a fifth of the global Crude output, remains effectively locked. This is strangling the global economy and hammering investors' appetite for risk. In this context, the US Dollar is reemerging as a safe-haven asset.
Technical Analysis: Silver remains within a bearish channel
The 4-hour chart shows XAG/USD trading at $69.35 amid a mildly bearish near-term bias. The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now near $73.40, is keeping price action aligned with the broader downside structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from above 50 back toward the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) green histogram bars contract after a prior positive phase, which supports the bearish scenario.
The downward parallel channel from above $90, now around the the $73.00 level, emerges as first resistance ahead of the stronger $74.70 area, where the pair was held on March 20 and 25. On the downside, initial support is seen around $69.00, ahead of the more significant horizontal level at $65.96, and the recent swing low, in the area of $60.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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