Forex News
- AUD/JPY may weaken as the Australian Dollar holds losses after China’s NBS PMI data release.
- China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 in March.
- The Japanese Yen gains ground amid rising expectations of possible currency intervention.
AUD/JPY remains steady after registering losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 109.70 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross could weaken as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses following the release of China’s NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Changes in China’s economy can influence the AUD, given the close trade relationship between the two countries.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February, beating expectations of 50.1 and returning to expansion, marking the strongest reading since March last year after two months of contraction. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 from 49.5, above forecasts of 49.9, signaling stabilization in the services sector following two months of contraction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its March Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, indicating that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed, but differed on the timing. Oil near $100 per barrel is seen capable of lifting June-quarter CPI to around 5%, with the majority concerned that inflation expectations could become unanchored without prompt action.
The AUD/JPY cross may struggle as the Japanese Yen (JPY) draws support from repeated verbal warnings by Tokyo authorities and growing expectations of possible intervention. On Monday, top currency official Atsushi Mimura said the government would act decisively if needed, echoing earlier comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4% year-over-year (YoY) in March, easing from a revised 1.5% (revised from 1.6%) in February. Core CPI increased 1.7% YoY, slightly down from 1.8% and below expectations of 1.8%.
Both measures remain below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target. However, analysts see the slowdown as temporary, citing rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions and higher import costs from the weak JPY, which are likely to push inflation higher in the coming months.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
- USD/CHF edges down to near 0.7985 as the US Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
- A fresh de-escalation in the Middle East war has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
- US President Trump is willing for peace with Iran without the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The USD/CHF pair ticks lower to near 0.7985 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, struggling to extend its five-day winning streak, as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight selling pressure on reports that United States (US) President Donald Trump is willing to make peace with Iran without forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly around 100.40.
Earlier in the day, a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that US President Trump is ready for peace with Iran, as Washington has cripped its military infrastructure. Trump added that Washington would pursue diplomatic ways for the Hormuz reopening, as a forceful way to reopen the waterways would stretch the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
US President Trump’s call for a truce has improved the risk appetite of investors, resulting in a strong demand for riskier assets across the world. S&P 500 futures trade almost 1% higher above 6,400, as of writing.
A fresh de-escalation in Middle East conflicts has also resulted in a sharp correction in the oil price, which could weigh on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets that were accelerated due to higher energy prices-led de-anchored inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades marginally higher against a majority of its currency peers. Broadly the Swiss currency has been under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expressed, in the monetary policy announcement this month, readiness to intervene against excessive appreciation in the CHF.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
- The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.
The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors' confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.
The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the recent lows in the 0.6880–0.6850 region would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.
On the flip side, the initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6803, now acting as a nearby pivot, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Silver price attracts significant bids as US President Trump calls for peace with Iran despite the Hormuz remaining closed.
- Trump said a forceful reopening of Hormuz would mean extending the military mission.
- Traders might pare hawkish central banks' bets if Middle East conflicts get resolved.
Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps 3% to near $73.00 in the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens after a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that United States (US) President Donald Trump is ready for peace with Iran even without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway of 20% of global energy supply.
The WSJ reported that US President Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The report also stated that administration officials assessed that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission beyond their timeline of four to six weeks.
Theoretically, signs of easing geopolitical tensions ease demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver; however, the white metal is outperforming as hopes of a decline in the Oil price due to the Middle East truce would ease accelerated global inflation expectations.
The precious metal underperformed in the last few weeks as rallying energy prices due to Middle East conflicts-led supply disruption had de-anchored inflation projections on the upside, a scenario that discourages central banks from loosening monetary conditions and diminishes the demand for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD rises to near $73 in the Asian trade on Tuesday. However, the near-term bias remains mildly bearish as price is still below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps at $75.49 and tracks a maturing downswing from the mid-$80s. The sequence of lower daily highs confirms selling pressure, while 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers slightly above 40.00, indicating a bearish momentum pause with the downside bias remaining intact.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near $75.50, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and expose the mid-$80s region as a secondary barrier. On the downside, minor support sits near the March 26 low at $66.70, with a break lower opening the way toward the March 23 low around $61.00 as the next bearish objective.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- DXY attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session rise to a fresh YTD top.
- Trump is reportedly open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Inflation concerns and rising Fed rate hike bets should help limit losses for the USD.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreated from its highest level since May 2025, touched during the Asian session this Tuesday, snapping a five-day winning streak. The index, however, lacks follow-through selling amid contrasting headlines over peace talks to end the war in the Middle East and currently trades around the 100.40-100.45 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The headlines trigger a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven USD. Furthermore, a corrective pullback in Crude Oil prices helps ease inflationary concerns and keep US Treasury bond yields on the defensive, turning out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback.
Meanwhile, Trump issued a stark warning that the US could launch massive strikes on Iran's key energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened to commercial traffic. Moreover, Iran has signaled reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress. Adding to this, the US is still deploying additional troops and assets to the region, fueling uncertainty about a quick de-escalation of tensions in the region.
This should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, which keeps inflation risks and bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in play. The hawkish outlook, in turn, should help limit deeper losses for the USD and warrants some caution before confirming that the index has topped out in the near term. Traders now look to the US economic data – JOLTS Job Openings and the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index, for a fresh impetus later during the North American session.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.00% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.20% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.03% | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CAD holds firm as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens on lower oil prices.
- Oil falls after reports that Trump may end Iran campaign despite Strait of Hormuz closure.
- Fed’s Powell says long-term US inflation expectations remain anchored despite heightened Middle East uncertainty.
USD/CAD remains stronger for the seventh consecutive day, trading around 1.3930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair holds ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status of the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after four days of gains, trading around $98.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices fall after US President Donald Trump reportedly signaled willingness to end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. However, this also eases safe-haven demand, weighs on the US Dollar (USD), and limits the upside of the USD/CAD pair.
However, ongoing US troop deployments suggest mixed signals and sustained risks to global energy flows. Meanwhile, Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker near a Dubai port, highlighting rising shipping risks in the Persian Gulf. Iran-backed Houthis also entered the conflict by targeting Israel over the weekend, while Tehran is reportedly preparing to disrupt Red Sea traffic.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said at a Harvard economics class on Monday that long-term US inflation expectations remain well anchored despite heightened Middle East uncertainty, adding that the Fed’s current policy stance gives officials time to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that monetary policy is well-positioned for any unusual circumstances and told Reuters that the job market is still sending mixed signals.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- Gold gains strong positive traction amid a modest US Dollar pullback from the YTD peak.
- Reports suggest that Trump is open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- This triggers a corrective fall in Oil prices and eases inflation fears, weighing on the USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the third straight day and rallies to a one-and-a-half-week top during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it struggles to find acceptance above the $4,600 mark. Reports that US President Donald Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, trigger a corrective pullback in Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, eases inflation concerns and keeps US Treasury bond yields on the back foot, prompting some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and benefiting the commodity.
Meanwhile, Iran has signaled reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress. Furthermore, the US is still deploying additional troops and assets to the region, adding to uncertainties and dampening hopes for a quick de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices and keep inflation risks in play, bolstering bets for higher interest rates globally. Expectations for hawkish central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), should cap the non-yielding Gold.
Traders now seem to have fully priced out the possibility of any further rate cuts by the US central bank and rapidly increasing bets for a hike by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying around the USD, which should contribute to keeping a lid on the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the recent solid recovery from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the $4,100 mark, or a four-month low, touched last week.
Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of JOLTS Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price. The market focus, however, remains glued to geopolitical developments, which will continue to play a key role in infusing volatility around the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold needs to surpass 100-day SMA support-turned-resistance to back the case for further gains
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is cautiously bearish as the Gold price hovers just under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from the monthly swing high. Moreover, the precious metal trades beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting the broader uptrend is intact but under pressure in the short term. Moreover, the 200-day SMA continues to grind higher, reinforcing longer-term bullish structure despite the pullback.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory to around 41, indicating easing but still subdued upside momentum. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with negative readings, consistent with a fading bullish impulse.
Initial resistance stands at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,592.49, with the 100-day SMA near $4,637 forming the next barrier. A daily close above the latter would open a recovery toward the 50.0% retracement at $4,747.16.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near the recent lows around $4,470, ahead of the 23.6% retracement at $4,401.11, where prior price congestion aligns with the corrective structure. A break below $4,401.11 would expose the $4,200–4,150 region and bring the rising 200-day SMA at $4,129 into focus as deeper trend support.
As long as price holds above the 23.6% retracement and the 200-day SMA, the broader bullish framework survives, but failure there would reinforce the current bearish near-term bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,584.62.
- The oil price faces intense selling pressure as US President Trump calls aides that he is willing to end the war with Iran.
- Trump is ready for a truce without the reopening of strait of Hormuz.
- Global energy supply is expected to remain limited due to damage to energy infrastructure.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, plunges over 3% to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The oil price faces intense selling pressure as a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has shown that United States (US) President Donald Trump is willing to end the war with Iran without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage to 20% of global energy supply.
As per the report, US President Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The report also stated that administration officials assessed that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
An end to the month-long war would ease global energy supply concerns and anchor inflation expectations again. However, the impact is expected to be limited for a while, as the damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in the wake of military activities by all three nations, Israel, Iran, and the US, would take months to return to the restoration state, a scenario that will keep global supply limited.
US President Trump’s call for a truce with Iran has resulted in a sharp improvement in investors’ risk appetite. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has also come slightly under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), ticking lower to near 100.40.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- NZD/USD holds ground as China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March.
- A WSJ report suggests Trump is open to end the Iran war without reopening Hormuz.
- The US Dollar may rebound as Middle East tensions boost safe-haven demand amid rising uncertainty.
NZD/USD halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 0.5730 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains stronger following the release of China’s NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Changes in China’s economy can influence the NZD, given the close trade relationship between the two countries.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February, beating expectations of 50.1 and returning to expansion, marking the strongest reading since March last year after two months of contraction. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 from 49.5, above forecasts of 49.9, signaling stabilization in the services sector following two months of contraction.
The NZD/USD pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) lost ground after five consecutive days of gains. However, the Greenback may recover its daily losses amid rising safe-haven demand linked to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East tensions.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US President Donald Trump is open to ending the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signalling shifting priorities. However, continued US troop deployments point to mixed messaging and persistent risks to global energy flows.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted on Monday that long-term US inflation expectations remain well anchored despite heightened Middle East uncertainties and emphasized that the Federal Reserve policy stance allows officials to evaluate the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
New York Fed President John Williams said that monetary policy is well-positioned for any unusual circumstances and told Reuters that the job market is still sending mixed signals on Monday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Citing administration officials, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
Administration officials assess that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission beyond his timeline of four to six weeks, the WSJ said.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has paused its winning streak, currently losing 0.05% on the day to trade at 100.43 amid a recovery in risk sentiment.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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