Forex News
- Silver plunges below 100-day SMA, accelerating selloff toward six-week lows.
- RSI dives toward oversold territory, signaling strong bearish momentum persists.
- Recovery requires reclaiming $70.00 and 100-day SMA to stabilize prices.
Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats late in the North American session, down by over 6.80% in the day, poised to finish the week with losses of more than 15.70%, posting its second-largest weekly loss since the one that ended down 17.39% on January 30. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $67.89.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Although turned bearish this week, Silver remains upward biased as long as the bulls keep spot prices above the February 6 swing low of $64.10. In the short term, XAG/USD turned negative after falling below the 100-day SMA at $72.55, which exacerbated a drop below $70.00, towards a six-week low of $65.52.
Nevertheless, in the medium term, the market structure has respected the successive series of higher lows and higher highs, keeping the bulls in the driver’s seat.
Momentum notably favours sellers, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which pierced its neutral level and fell sharply toward oversold territory. A drop below the RSI’s 30 level and a quick jump back above it could open the door to form a bottom, IF the RSI consolidates steadily, registering higher peaks and troughs.
For a bull market recovery, XAG/USD needs to reclaim $70.00 and the 100-day SMA. Once surpassed, the next stop is the cycle low-turned-resistance at $77.98, the March 3 daily low.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
A Reuters poll revealed that the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is expected to keep interest rates steady at 7% at the March 26 meeting amid concerns about the Middle East war.
If Banxico keeps rates unchanged, it would be the second consecutive time the central bank has opted for a wait-and-see approach, after reducing rates 12 times since the easing cycle began.
The survey revealed that 16 of 28 economists expect Mexico's main reference rate to remain unchanged, while a minority of participants — including analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan — project a resumption of Banxico's easing cycle, even though the central bank's governing council raised inflation expectations.
Eleven of the respondents expect a 25-basis-point reduction to 6.75%, including the already mentioned Bank of America and Barclays, alongside one local analyst who projects a 25-basis-point rate hike to 7.25%.
(This story was corrected on March 20 at 21:02 GMT to say that Eleven of the respondents expect a 25 basis points reduction to 6.75%, not Eleven of the respondents expect a 25 basis points reduction to 6.25%.)
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures could still rise.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.80% | 1.02% | -0.19% | 1.09% | 0.91% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.46% | 0.70% | -0.52% | 0.77% | 0.58% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.80% | -0.46% | 0.25% | -0.98% | 0.30% | 0.12% | -0.72% | |
| JPY | -1.02% | -0.70% | -0.25% | -1.19% | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.93% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.52% | 0.98% | 1.19% | 1.28% | 1.11% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -1.09% | -0.77% | -0.30% | -0.07% | -1.28% | -0.17% | -1.02% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.58% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -1.11% | 0.17% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.26% | 0.72% | 0.93% | -0.26% | 1.02% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1550 region after touching fresh 2026 lows earlier in the week, even though the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish tilt, with markets now pricing an 85% probability of a rate hike this year.
GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330 after the Bank of England (BoE) held rates on Thursday but signaled it may need to tighten policy if energy-driven inflation persists.
USD/JPY is trading near 159.30 with the Yen catching a bid as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) signaled it will resume its normalization path.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7010 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for a second consecutive meeting, though broader risk-off sentiment continues to weigh on the Aussie.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $98 per barrel, near its weekly high after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold plummeted to $4,583 after a brutal selloff driven by rising Treasury yields and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, outpacing any safe-haven demand from the conflict.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, March 23:
- ECB's Escrivá.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Lane.
Tuesday, March 24:
- RBNZ's Breman.
- ECB's Kocher.
- ECB's Sleijpen.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Nagel.
- ECB's Lane.
- Fed's Barr.
Wednesday, March 25:
- ECB's President Lagarde.
- ECB's Lane.
- BoE's Greene.
- Fed's Miran.
Thursday, March 26:
- ECB's De Guindos.
- BoE's Breeden.
- BoE's Greene.
- BoE's Taylor.
- Fed's Cook.
- Fed's Miran.
- Fed's Jefferson.
- Fed's Logan.
- Fed's Barr.
Friday, March 27:
- Fed's Daly.
- Fed's Paulson.
- ECB's Schnabel.
Saturday, March 28:
- ECB's Cipollone.
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies
Monday, March 23:
- Eurozone March Consumer Confidence Prel.
- Australia March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan February Consumer Price Index.
Tuesday, March 24:
- Eurozone March HCOB PMIs Prel.
- UK March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- US ADP Employment Change.
- US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
- US March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland March ZEW Survey – Expectations.
- Germany March IFO Business Climate.
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK April Consumer Confidence.
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- US Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand March ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
(This story was corrected on March 20 at 22:14 GMT to say that the war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week instead of the fourth.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
