Forex News
- The ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March, missing consensus, as employment dropped to its lowest since late 2023.
- Markets are pricing about a 70% chance the BoJ raises rates to 1.00% at the April 27 to 28 meeting.
- Monday's ISM services print showed rising prices paid alongside a sharp drop in employment, fueling stagflation concerns.
- USD/JPY continues to trade in a roughly 150-pip range between 158.50 and 160.00, with neither side able to force a decisive break.
USD/JPY traded flat on Monday, edging up less than 0.1% to settle around 159.60 in a quiet session ahead of the US data release. The pair has been consolidating in a roughly 150-pip band between 158.50 and 160.00 since early April, with the week's high near 160.30 capping upside attempts and buyers stepping in on dips toward the lower boundary. Monday's candle carried a narrow body and limited range, reflecting indecision as traders awaited the afternoon's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services data.
On the Japanese Yen side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates at 0.75% at its March meeting by an 8 to 1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.00%. Markets are now pricing about a 70% probability of a 25 basis point increase at the April 27 to 28 meeting, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week urging the BoJ to press ahead with tightening despite the geopolitical backdrop. New board member Toichiro Asada signaled a cautious, data-driven approach at his first briefing, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency and crude oil markets.
On the US Dollar side, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54 in March from 56.1 in February, undershooting the 55 consensus. The headline masked a sharper deterioration underneath: the employment sub-index dropped to 45.2, its lowest since December 2023, while prices paid surged to 70.7, the highest reading since October 2022. New orders rose to 60.6, the strongest in 17 months, but the combination of rising input costs and falling payrolls reinforced stagflation concerns tied to the conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Chair Jerome Powell recently noting that inflation is not falling as quickly as hoped.
USD/JPY 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis:
In the 5-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.63. Momentum has cooled from earlier overbought conditions, with the Stochastic RSI sliding from above 70 toward the lower half of its range, signaling fading upside pressure in the very near term. Price holds just above the 200-period exponential moving average around 159.63, keeping the micro-trend marginally bullish while warning that a clean break below this dynamic level could shift the bias to the downside. The overall picture points to a neutral-to-bearish bias as buyers struggle to extend gains despite trading on top of key intraday trend support.
Immediate support is located at the 200-period EMA near 159.63, followed by the recent intraday lows around 159.58 and then 159.50 if selling extends. On the topside, initial resistance comes in at the 159.73–159.76 area, where prior highs align with the day’s open, and a sustained move above this band would be needed to revive a clearer bullish tone toward 159.90 next. As long as price oscillates around the 200-period average and Stochastic RSI stays subdued, range-bound trading with a slight downside risk remains the dominant intraday scenario.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- AUD/USD recovers, boosted by an Improved risk appetite.
- Iran’s rejection of the ceasefire trimmed gains and kept traders cautious near highs.
- Fed minutes, inflation data and Australian releases now guide direction.
The Australian Dollar rallied by over 0.50% amid an improvement in risk appetite, though gains were capped by Iran’s rejection of a ceasefire deal, pushing traders to trim long positions in the AUD/USD pair. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.6918, still above its opening price.
Aussie gains as risk mood lifts, but ceasefire doubts cap upside
Wall Street ended Monday’s session in the green, though beneath daily highs on news that the US is preparing for strikes on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. Although Trump reported that talks with Iran are “going well,” he insisted that free flow through the Strait of Hormuz is a must.
In the meantime, the Aussie Dollar retreated from daily highs amid uncertainty in the Middle East, as mixed headlines across most newswires kept investors on their toes.
US business activity in the services sector fell short of economists' estimates for a 54.9 slowdown. The ISM Services PMI in March dipped from 56.1 to 54.0, while the Prices Paid sub-component soared sharply to its highest level since 2022, coming at 70.7 due to higher petrol prices
After the data and Iran’s rejection of the ceasefire deal, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six currencies, edged past 100.00, trimming earlier losses. Nevertheless, as traders digested the news, the DXY reversed its course, aiming towards daily lows, down 0.20% at 99.98.
In Australia, trading activities resume on April 7, following the four-day long weekend. The S&P Global Services PMI in March is expected to remain steady at 46.6, as in February, an indication that the services sector remains in contractionary territory.
Other data is expected, including the TD-MI inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute, which provides a monthly measure of inflation in the country.
A poll by the Australian Financial Review (AFR) revealed that most of the 38 economists surveyed expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates to 4.35%, the third time this year. The poll revealed that “Westpac and Judo Bank are forecasting three more increases by June next year, taking the cash rate to its highest since the global financial crisis.”
RBA interest rate probabilities
In the US, a busy calendar will keep traders on edge, with key releases including Durable Goods Orders, Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, GDP data, Jobless Claims, and inflation prints.
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6919. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as spot holds above the clustered rising support lines that have been underpinning the advance from the 0.67 area, while price also trades above the grouped simple moving averages around 0.70, which now trail the move and reinforce the broader uptrend. RSI at 44 stays below the midline but has stabilised after a prior decline, suggesting fading downside momentum rather than outright bearish pressure, consistent with a corrective phase within a still-positive daily structure.
Initial support emerges at the recent low near 0.6850, reinforced by the latest upward-sloping trend-line zone drawn from 0.6897, with a break there exposing deeper pullback potential toward 0.6800. On the upside, the first resistance is aligned with last week’s reaction high around 0.7020, followed by the 0.7075/0.7120 band, where prior swing highs converge and the rising average cluster begins to cap, and a sustained close above this band would reopen the path toward the mid-0.71s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.30% | -0.03% | -0.26% | -0.37% | -0.45% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | -0.05% | 0.18% | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.24% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.35% | -0.44% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.21% | -0.11% | -0.21% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.37% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.35% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.44% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.22% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD rises near 0.5710 as the US Dollar weakens on easing geopolitical tensions.
- Hopes of a ceasefire offset US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, boosting risk-sensitive currencies.
- Focus shifts to the RBNZ decision and the upcoming US inflation data.
The NZD/USD pair trades with a bullish tone near the 0.5710 region on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) softens amid improving risk sentiment driven by ceasefire hopes in the Middle East.
The Greenback is losing momentum as markets shift away from safe-haven positioning. Despite strong rhetoric from Donald Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz, investors are focusing more on emerging diplomatic efforts and the possibility of de-escalation, which is supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Additionally, a modest pullback in US yields, along with softer-than-expected ISM Services data—particularly a decline in employment—has put pressure on the USD. While inflation components, such as Prices Paid, remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned that growth may be slowing, which complicates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) outlook.
On the New Zealand side, the NZD is finding support ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy decision later this week. Markets widely expect the central bank to maintain current interest rates, but any shift in tone or guidance could impact the Kiwi's next move. Traders are also keeping an eye on global risk appetite, considering New Zealand's sensitivity to external demand.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5713. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair holds below the falling 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which cap the upside near 0.5715 and 0.5785 respectively. The declining structure of both averages suggests sellers retain control after a persistent grind lower from the 0.58 area. RSI at 46 stays below the 50 midline, aligning with subdued bullish momentum rather than an oversold condition and reinforcing the current downside skew.
Immediate resistance emerges at 0.5721, followed by 0.5730, where short-term supply converges with the nearby 20-period SMA and could attract fresh selling on intraday rebounds. A sustained break above 0.5730 would open the way to the 0.5800 barrier,. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5712, with a break exposing 0.5706; a clear move below this band would confirm renewed bearish pressure and risk an extension of the broader decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- USD/CHF fails at 0.8000, forming a potential double-top pattern.
- RSI shows weakening momentum despite broader constructive recovery trend.
- Break below 0.7970 exposes 200-day SMA and 0.7900 support.
USD/CHF failed to clear key resistance at 0.8000 on Monday, recoiling to the 0.7900 handle as a double-top chart pattern looms. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7979, down 0.18%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The technical picture shows that USD/CHF has enjoyed a steady recovery since bottoming at the yearly low of 0.7601 late January. Momentum seems constructive, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggests bulls are losing some steam.
If USD/CHF breaks the key support trendline around 0.7970, it opens the door to a move lower past the 0.7950 psychological figure, towards the next support at the 200-day SMA at 0.7940. On further weakness, the next stop is the 20-day SMA at 0.7909.
For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for USD/CHF is 0.8000, followed by the April 3 high at 0.8012. A breach of the latter will expose the January 15 high at 0.8041, followed by the November 25 daily peak at 0.8102.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- The Dow climbed a slim 120 points on Monday as traders reacted to Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report and weighed Iran ceasefire prospects.
- Institute for Supply Management Services data showed a sharp drop in employment and a surge in prices paid, raising stagflation concerns.
- Crude Oil prices whipsawed as reports emerged of a potential 45-day ceasefire framework between the US and Iran.
- Wall Street is coming off its best weekly performance since late November, snapping a five-week losing streak across all three major indexes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained a scant 120 points, or 0.3%, on Monday in the first session following the Good Friday market closure. The index pushed toward 46,700 in early trading before fading through the midday session and ultimately settling around 46,500. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%, extending last week's rally that saw gains of 3%, 3.4%, and 4.4% respectively. Monday's session marked the first opportunity for traders to digest Friday's blowout March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy added 178K jobs against expectations for just 60K.
Services sector growth cools as prices surge
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 54 for March, below the consensus forecast of 55 and down from 56.1 in February. The headline number marked a 21st consecutive month of expansion, but the subcomponents told a more concerning story. The Employment Index plunged to 45.2 from 51.8, its lowest reading since December 2023 and a sharp reversal into contraction territory. The Prices Paid Index jumped to 70.7 from 63, reflecting the pass-through of elevated Oil prices and fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict. ISM chair Steve Miller noted that Iran-related cost impacts dominated respondent commentary, with companies across industries reporting higher gas and diesel pricing. On a more positive note, the New Orders Index climbed to 60.6 from 58.6, its highest level since February 2023, suggesting demand in the services economy remains resilient even as cost pressures build.
Ceasefire speculation drives volatile Oil trading
Oil prices swung sharply throughout Monday's session as conflicting reports on US-Iran diplomacy kept traders guessing. A draft proposal put together by Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators called for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran rejected it outright. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei called the proposal "illogical," stating that Tehran demands a permanent end to the war with guarantees against future attacks rather than a temporary halt to fighting. Despite the rejection, US equities shrugged off the headline and held onto gains, suggesting markets may be growing desensitized to the back-and-forth of failed diplomatic efforts. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery was last up 0.7% above $112 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 0.6% above $109. President Donald Trump warned Sunday that the US would strike Iran's power plants and bridges if the Strait isn't reopened by Tuesday, though he walked back the rhetoric somewhat on Monday. Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, cautioned that markets may be underestimating the magnitude of the energy disruption, warning that prices could stay elevated for longer than expected.
Jobs data lands strong but wage growth softens
Friday's March NFP report showed 178K jobs added, nearly three times the consensus estimate of 60K, with healthcare accounting for 76K of the gain as striking Kaiser Permanente workers returned to payrolls. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. However, average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% MoM, with the YoY rate slipping to 3.5%, the lowest since May 2021. February's payroll figure was also revised sharply lower to a loss of 133K from the initially reported 92K decline. The combination of a headline beat driven largely by strike resolution and cooling wage growth left the broader labor market picture largely unchanged. Futures markets reflected virtually no probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate move at the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with a 77.5% chance the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Inflation data in focus later this week
Attention now turns to a pair of high-impact inflation releases later in the week. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the third estimate of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. February's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.4% YoY, and the March CPI release on Friday will be closely watched for any early signs of Oil-driven price acceleration filtering into broader consumer costs. With ISM manufacturing prices already at their highest since June 2022 and services prices now surging, the inflation outlook heading into the second quarter is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for a Fed that remains firmly on hold.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, April 7:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards the 100.00 area on Monday as markets were weighed by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s latest Strait of Hormuz ultimatum against growing hopes for a ceasefire framework between the US and Iran. Those de-escalation hopes softened the Greenback’s haven appeal, even as the broader macro backdrop remained supportive, driven by elevated oil prices and a more cautious Federal Reserve outlook.
Later in the day, the US ISM Services PMI showed growth slowed to 54 in March from 56.1, while prices paid jumped sharply, reinforcing concerns that war-related energy shocks are feeding inflation.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.27% | -0.32% | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.41% | -0.45% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.27% | -0.02% | 0.22% | 0.04% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.32% | 0.02% | 0.25% | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.18% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.40% | -0.45% | -0.27% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.20% | -0.17% | -0.21% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.41% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.40% | 0.17% | -0.06% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.45% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.27% | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD surged near the 1.1550 region, but upside remained capped after bouncing from intraday lows. The pair found support as improving sentiment around a possible Iran ceasefire undermined the Greenback, although gains were limited as traders stayed cautious ahead of further news from the Iran war.
GBP/USD climbed toward the 1.3240 zone, posting solid gains as the Pound benefited from a softer US Dollar. Cable drew support from reports of possible de-escalation in the Middle East, even as Trump insisted that Tuesday’s deadline for Iran to make a deal remained final.
USD/JPY trades muted after being highly volatile early in the day near the 159.70 area as the Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support from the weaker Dollar and renewed focus on potential Japanese intervention near the 160.00 threshold.
AUD/USD advanced toward the 0.6920 region, with the Aussie outperforming as risk-sensitive assets gained on hopes that US-Iran negotiations could eventually bring the conflict closer to a truce.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains elevated above the $112.00 mark, trading neutral at the time of writing. Crude stayed underpinned by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption and Trump’s threat to intensify strikes if the waterway is not reopened, though ceasefire headlines and OPEC+’s agreement to boost May’s output helped prevent an even sharper rally.
Gold hovers around the $4,660 area, little changed on the day after earlier weakness. Bullion remained underpinned as investors headed for riskier assets late in the American session.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, April 7
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge March YoY
- EU HCOB PMIs
- EU Sentix Investor Confidence
- US Durable Goods Orders
- Canadian Ivey PMI
- JPY Labor Cash Earnings
- JPY Current Account
- NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Wednesday, April 8
- NZ RBNZ Press Conference
- EU Retail Sales
- EU Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
- US FOMC Minutes
Thursday, April 9
- EUR Trade Balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income
- US Personal Spending
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statement
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Vietnam’s headline CPI jumped to 4.65% year-on-year in March 2026, driven by higher energy costs, pushing inflation above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target. As the shock is seen as supply-driven, UOB expects no policy tightening and projects the SBV refinance rate will stay at 4.50% through 2026.
Supply-driven inflation keeps SBV on hold
"The most notable difference this quarter is that headline consumer price index jumped to 4.65% y/y in Mar 2026, from an average of 2.94% in Jan-Feb."
"The latest inflation rate is now above SBV’s target of 4.5%."
"With inflation rate expected to rise further in the months ahead and much more above the 4.5% target, the focus will be on the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s policy stance."
"Given that the price increases are driven by supply rather than demand, policy tightening is not the right response."
"Based on the above factors, we expect SBV to stay on hold with its refinance rate at 4.5% through 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI Crude Oil futures briefly spiked above $115 while spot holds near $104 on Trump's Iran threat
- Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges by midnight Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
- WTI futures surged nearly 12% last Thursday; spot crude rallied but is holding well below futures near $104.
- Iran rejected both the ultimatum and a Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal.
WTI Crude Oil saw sharply diverging price action across the spot and futures markets on Monday. May futures spiked to about $115 in early dealing, before pulling back near $112, roughly flat against Thursday's settlement. In the spot market, price traded in a tighter range, slipping 0.2% to settle near $104 after touching a session high close to $106 and a low around $101. The widening gap between spot and front-month futures reflects the extreme backwardation gripping Crude Oil markets, with traders pricing a significant near-term delivery premium tied directly to Tuesday's deadline.
President Donald Trump issued an expletive-laden threat on Truth Social on Sunday, warning that Tuesday would be "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one" if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm Eastern Time. Trump said a deal was still possible but added that if one is not reached, "I am blowing up everything." Iran rejected the ultimatum; the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman said negotiations cannot proceed under threats of war crimes, and a deputy in the president's office said the Strait would only reopen after reparations for war damage are paid. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to most commercial shipping since late February, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, removing an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day from normal transit flows.
A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal was put to both sides over the weekend, with foreign ministers from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey shuttling messages between Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials rejected the proposal, and mediators are said to be less optimistic that any deal is close before Tuesday's deadline. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending March 27, and OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output hike for April, but neither bearish factor has been able to offset the geopolitical risk premium, which Goldman Sachs estimates sits between $14 and $18 per barrel.
WTI Spot 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $103.97. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds comfortably above the rising 200-period exponential moving average near $102.90, confirming an intraday uptrend structure despite the latest pullback. The earlier push toward the $104.80 area coincided with a Stochastic RSI peak above 80, and the oscillator has since retreated toward oversold territory, indicating fading upside momentum but not a full trend reversal while price stays above the long-term intraday average.
Immediate support emerges at $104.00, with a break lower exposing the 200-period EMA region around $102.90 as the next key intraday floor, followed by deeper support near $102.50. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the recent high at $104.80, and a clear move above this level would reopen the path toward the $105.50 zone. As long as $102.90 holds on closing bases, dip-buying interest is likely to prevail on this timeframe, while a decisive drop through that level would neutralize the current bullish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold gave back gains as Iran ceasefire hopes faded sharply.
- Rising oil prices and a firmer US Dollar weighed on bullion.
- Strong US data reinforced expectations for a steady Fed outlook.
Gold (XAU/USD) price recoiled during the North American session on Monday after hitting a daily high of $4,706, but news that an agreement between the US and Iran seems unlikely, along with military preparations for potential strikes, drove the yellow metal lower.
Bullion eases as war risks persist and Fed hold bets stay firm
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,652, weighed down by the rise in WTI, which is up 1,40% at $113.64 per barrel. In addition, the Greenback is trimming some of its earlier losses, back above the 100.00 handle, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the US Dollar's performance against six others, falls 0.19%. US Treasury yields are trimming some of their earlier losses, with the 10-year T-note yielding 4.337%.
The Wall Street Journal revealed that the US military is “making preparations for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran,” according to multiple US officials. Recently, US President Donald Trump said that “Iran can be taken out in one night, might be Tuesday night.”
Trump’s initial deadline was April 6, but he delayed the attacks to April 7 at 8:00 PM ET if Iran fails to comply with US demands, which include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Recently, Iran rejected ceasefire proposals, which included efforts by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey to secure a 45-day pause of hostilities to set the stage for a full resolution of the conflict.
Fed expected to keep rates steady; services PMI in the US disappoints
Meanwhile, business activity in the US services sector slowed, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Services PMI in March eased to 54 in March from 56.1, missing expectations of 55. The prices paid sub-component of the PMI surged to its highest level since October 2022, to 70.7, due to higher energy costs, according to Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Last Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised markets, as the economy added 178K Americans to the workforce, exceeding estimates of 60K and February’s downwardly revised print of -133K. Based on all the data, the economy averaged 68K in the first three months.
Consequently, the Unemployment Rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, beneath the Federal Reserve’s 4.5% target for 2026. This erased the Fed’s dovish bets as depicted by money markets, which now expect the US central bank to keep rates steady throughout the whole year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
The US economic docket will be busy, as traders eye Durable Goods Orders, speeches by Fed officials, the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, growth data, Initial Jobless Claims and inflation figures.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold struggles at $4,700, sellers target the 100-day SMA
Gold price faces key resistance at $4,700, and retreated towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,639. Bulls seem to be losing traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains bearish and is approaching oversold territory.
If XAU/USD finishes on a daily basis below the 100-day SMA, this clears the path to challenge $4,600. Below here, the next area of interest is the April 2 daily low at $4,553, ahead of $4,500. Conversely, if Gold rallies past $4,700, the first area of supply overhead is the 20-day SMA at $4,755. On further strength, $4,800 lies up next.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Silver trades in a narrow range as US-Iran war headlines keep markets cautious.
- Initial optimism over a potential ceasefire faded amid conflicting headlines on ceasefire negotiations.
- Technically, XAG/USD remains under pressure below the 100-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias weak.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades in a narrow range on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep markets on edge, while traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid conflicting headlines over efforts to end the US-Iran war.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $73, with modest US Dollar softness helping cushion the downside. However, upside remains capped as rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Earlier on Monday, optimism rose following reports from Axios that the US and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire.
However, that optimism proved short-lived after IRNA reported that Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal conveyed via Pakistan and submitted a 10-point response. The proposal reportedly includes demands such as an end to conflicts in the region and a framework for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
No meaningful breakthrough has emerged, with attention now turning to the deadline set by US President Donald Trump, due on Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Trump has warned of strikes on Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD maintains a bearish-to-neutral outlook, with repeated rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and price holding well below the 50-day SMA.
Initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $75.84 and a sustained move above this level could pave the way toward the 50-day SMA around $82.35. Beyond that, the February swing high near $96.62 stands as the next major upside barrier.
On the downside, immediate support lies in the $70-$68 zone, followed by the March low near $61.01, which aligns closely with the 200-day SMA at $59.24.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 points to persistent but not extreme selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive but remains near the zero line, suggesting that downside momentum is fading but not yet fully reversed.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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