Forex News
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues China is better positioned than other Asian economies to withstand energy disruptions from Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks. The report highlights China’s diversified crude sourcing, large strategic reserves, and falling fossil fuel intensity, while warning that sectoral pain, especially in transport and chemicals, and prolonged volatility could still challenge China’s growth outlook over the coming months.
China buffers regional energy supply shocks
"To further mitigate the immediate shock of volatile energy markets, Asian nations are deploying their strategic reserves with varying degrees of efficacy. Advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan maintain robust national petroleum reserves to insulate their domestic markets, whereas developing nations such as India, Thailand, and the Philippines possess limited strategic inventories and thus remain highly exposed to prolonged supply disruptions."
"While Asian economies face acute energy vulnerabilities, China leverages strategic reserves and policy interventions to absorb the shocks. This short-term resilience remains under pressure as geopolitical volatility continues."
"Conversely, China has actively pursued a diversification strategy in recent years. While the world's largest oil consumer still faces considerable exposure, the proportion of Chinese crude oil sourced from the Middle East is the lowest among major Asian economies and has been steadily declining since 2022."
"Furthermore, the evolution of China's overall energy mix provides an additional layer of structural resilience. By steadily reducing fossil fuel consumption per unit of GDP and integrating renewables, China is systematically decreasing its hydrocarbon reliance."
"However, this macro-level stability could mask the diverging impacts hitting specific industrial sectors differently. The economic pain inflicted by the conflict is uneven across the Chinese industrial landscape."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY drifted sideways on Monday after Friday's pullback from near 159.50 to an intraday low close to 157.60.
- The US seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday, putting the two-week ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday in jeopardy.
- Tuesday's US Retail Sales and Thursday's PMI data are the week's only major catalysts outside the Iran focus.
USD/JPY edged lower by less than 0.1% on Monday, trading in a tight range around 158.80. The pair slid from highs near 159.50 on Friday to an early-session low close to 157.60 before buyers stepped in, and has since consolidated in a roughly 150-pip band between 158.50 and 159.20 through the Asian and European sessions. Small-bodied candles and overlapping wicks point to indecision as traders await the next move in the US-Iran standoff.
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 is looking increasingly fragile after US Navy forces boarded and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, the Touska, in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. President Trump has since declared the truce will end on Wednesday evening and suggested an extension is highly unlikely without a deal, while Iranian officials have publicly denied that a second round of Islamabad talks has been firmly scheduled. Despite the flurry of escalation, including Iran re-closing the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and a surge in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude above $89 per barrel, currency markets have been notably reluctant to price in a collapse of talks. Risk sentiment looks anchored to a best-case outcome, leaving plenty of room for an abrupt repricing should the negotiations fail or military action resume.
The data docket is otherwise relatively light this week. Tuesday's US Retail Sales print and Thursday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures offer a read on consumer resilience and business conditions after weeks of elevated energy prices. Friday's Japanese national Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unlikely to move the pair meaningfully given that the Tokyo CPI release typically front-runs the national print by several weeks. The University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey later that day rounds out the calendar, though its impact should prove muted while traders keep their attention fixed on the Iran headlines.
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.83, holding below the day’s open at 159.18, which keeps the near-term tone mildly bearish as intraday rallies continue to be rejected beneath that reference point. The Stochastic RSI has eased back to about 67 from overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating, which reinforces the idea of a capped bounce while price remains under the opening pivot.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the day’s open around 159.18, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more convincing recovery. On the downside, the lack of nearby defined support levels on this timeframe suggests that any renewed selling could see the pair probing lower intraday lows, with traders watching price action and momentum signals for signs of stabilization before considering a reversal.
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.83. The pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.15 and the 200-day EMA at 154.60, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pullback. The Stochastic RSI at 21.19 hovers in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is losing traction while price action remains supported by these underlying trend markers.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 50-day EMA around 158.15, where a break would expose the more robust bullish floor at the 200-day EMA near 154.60. Until those levels give way, the path of least resistance stays to the upside, with any further dips toward the 158 handle likely viewed as corrective within the prevailing uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Heightened tensions in the Middle East, which included the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US seizing an Iran-flagged vessel, dominate the narrative in the financial markets as traders wait for the second round of talks between Iran and the US. Wall Street ended Monday’s session in the red, while the US Dollar (USD) erased its previous gains, finishing the day with moderate losses, amid a mixed market mood.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, April 21:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a five-day high of 98.35 before reversing, poised to end near 98.00. A scarce economic docket keeps the Greenback leaning on the dynamics of US President Donald Trump’s social media posts, while a US delegation heads to Pakistan. Besides this, traders await the release of Retail Sales, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, and the hearing of the nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, before the US Senate.
EUR/USD began the week on a lower note, gapping down, but as the trading day progressed, it is poised to end near 1.1800 for a 0.20% gain. The docket featured ECB President Lagarde, who said the bank is ready to act and that a quick resolution of the conflict will limit the impact of the energy shock. On Tuesday, traders would eye speeches by ECB officials, along with the EU and German ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment for April.
GBP/USD reclaimed 1.3500, posting limited gains against the Euro amid broad US Dollar weakness. On Tuesday, traders eye the release of employment figures, with the ILO Unemployment Rate for February—the 3-month rollover—expected to come unchanged at 5.2%.
USD/JPY rose as the Japanese Yen was the worst-performing currency in the G10 FX space, amid the Bank of Japan’s hint that it would keep rates unchanged, even though money markets are pricing 47 basis points of tightening. The calendar will feature the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, Exports, and Imports.
AUD/USD remains underpinned by expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes, even as market sentiment was mixed. The pair finished the session above 0.7150, and, with the lack of economic data released, suggests that price action would lie in the hands of the Greenback.
WTI posted the best performance among the financial markets, gaining more than 2.4% to $85.89, amid tensions in the US-Iran conflict. The resumption of talks would exert downward pressure on the black gold. But if the ceasefire expires with no agreement, crude could aim higher, clearing the $90.00 milestone.
Last but not least, Gold prices remained pressured by high US Treasury yields. Although the Greenback was pressured, expectations of higher Fed interest rates due to the energy shock weighed on the non-yielding metal, with XAU/USD remaining above $4,800.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.13% | 0.11% | -0.33% | -0.07% | 0.03% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.26% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.08% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.21% | -0.15% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.53% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.46% | 0.24% | 0.20% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.22% | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.27% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.53% | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/SGD rebounded sharply after Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Friday’s drop to 1.2667. While daily momentum remains bearish, RSI is turning up from oversold, with key support at 1.2700 and 1.2670 and resistance at 1.2750/60, 1.2800 and 1.2850. Focus stays on whether parties reach a deal or escalate militarily in coming days.
Safe-haven bid lifts pair off lows
"USD/SGD had traded as low as 1.2667 last Fri, on news of conditional open of passageway at strait of Hormuz."
"But the pair rebounded sharply this morning in early trade following the weekend setback – reclosure of the strait."
"Focus remains on whether both parties manage to get a deal or if there are further military escalation in the next 24-48 hours."
"Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but shows tentative signs of fading while RSI shows signs of rising from near oversold conditions."
"Key support at 1.27, 1.2670 (76.4% fibo). Resistance at 1.2750/60 levels (50 DMA, 50% fibo), 1.28 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting notes that Malaysia’s export momentum softened in March but the trade surplus widened to a one-year high. Strong Electrical and Electronics (E&E) shipments and re-exports supported exports, while imports were driven by capital goods. They highlight geopolitical and cost risks and maintains its 2026 export growth forecast at 2.5%.
Exports slow but surplus strengthens
"As exports continued to outpace imports, the trade surplus widened to a one-year high of MYR24.6bn in Mar (Feb: +MYR16.7bn). Cumulatively, trade surplus amounted to MYR63.2bn in 1Q26 (4Q25: +MYR48.6bn), the largest since 1Q23. This stronger trade balance is expected to translate into a wider current account surplus of MYR15.0bn in 1Q26 (4Q25: +MYR2.0bn). Actual 1Q26 current account data will be released on 15 May, together with the 1Q26 final GDP figure."
"While the AI upcycle is expected to continue underpinning Malaysia’s trade prospect this year, renewed Middle East tensions—particularly the potential prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have heightened downside risks to global growth and demand. Higher input costs and supply chain disruptions across oil and non-oil materials may weigh on near-term exports and production despite easing US tariff concerns. We remain cautious and maintain our 2026 export growth forecast at 2.5% for now (BNM est: +8.6%; 2025: +6.4%)."
"In sum, any prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would adversely affect trade through higher cost, reduced volumes, and weaker business confidence. Elevated crude oil and shipping costs could inflate the import bill and offset export gains even if export volumes remain resilient. Limited cost pass-through amid softer demand and raw material constraints may prompt firms to adopt a more cautious stance in the near term. Hence, we keep our cautious view on Malaysia’s trade prosects, maintaining our 2026 full-year export growth forecast at 2.5% for now (BNM est: +8.6%; 2025: +6.4%)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver forms a doji pattern near $80, signaling a market indecision phase.
- Key trendline support near $78 at risk of breaking lower.
- Break below $78 exposes $77.53 and $74.34 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price falls more than 1% on Monday after gapping down over the weekend as pessimism overtook last Friday’s upbeat mood, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the US escalated tensions after seizing an Iran-flagged vessel. XAG/USD trades at $79.78, after reaching a daily high of $80.68.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical Outlook
Silver remains upwardly biased, with key support around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $78.98, but on the day it weakened amid high US Treasury yields. As of writing, a doji appears to be forming, indicating neither buyers nor sellers are in control.
With that said, if XAG/USD slides below a key support trendline at around $78.00, it opens the door for a deeper pullback. Next lies the 100-day SMA at $77.53, followed by the 20-day SMA at $74.34.
On the other hand, the bullish bias will remain, unless Silver falls to a fresh low beneath $77.78. If Silver rises past $80, the next area of interest would be the last Friday high at $83.05. If surpassed, the next key resistance levels would be the March 13 high at $85.46, then the March 12 high at $87.43, and finally the March 11 peak at $89.42. Up next lies the $90.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
BNP Paribas reports China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and for 2025 overall, with a moderate slowdown expected in 2026. The bank highlights a K-shaped pattern, with strong exports but weak domestic demand and a persistent property crisis. Authorities are seen maintaining supportive but modest fiscal and monetary policies as deflationary pressures ease.
K-shaped expansion and easing deflation risks
"Economic growth accelerated to +5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, vs. +4.5% in Q4 2025. It stood at 5% in 2025 as a whole and it is expected to slow moderately in 2026."
"The authorities will maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, but their measures will continue to be modest, even in a less supportive global environment."
"Deflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2026, notably thanks to higher global energy prices and anti-involution measures implemented by the authorities."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that Asian FX will likely unwind Friday’s rally after Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. High‑beta KRW is seen leading the pullback, while TWD, INR, THB and PHP also soften on Oil sensitivity. Lower‑beta CNH and SGD may be less volatile but remain under pressure, with two‑way trading favoured as ceasefire negotiations evolve.
High beta to lead regional pullback
"Asian FX are likely to retrace late Friday’s gains while USD should catch a safe-haven bid amid twist in geopolitical developments into the weekend."
"Amongst the Asian FX, high-beta KRW that had benefited from the earlier positive development should see a bigger pullback."
"Most Asian FX, including TWD, INR, THB and PHP should also trade on a softer footing given their sensitivity to oil prices and risk sentiment."
"On relative terms, lower beta FX, including CNH and SGD may trade less volatile but likely still under pressure."
"This underscores the fluidity of geopolitical developments and continues to argue for 2-way trades."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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