Forex News
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said late Wednesday that the United States should "withdraw from 'Israel First' mistake" and that it "must comply" with a ceasefire in Lebanon.
"The completion and consolidation of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon will be the result of the resistance and steadfast struggle of the great Hezbollah and the unity of the Axis of Resistance. The United States must comply with the agreement," Ghalibaf wrote on X. "Resistance and Iran are one soul, both in war and in ceasefire," he noted.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.70% on the day at $87.60.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
China quarterly GDP Overview
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data at 02.00 GMT on Thursday. China quarterly GDP is estimated to grow 1.3% in the first quarter (Q1), compared to an expansion of 1.2% in Q4. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is forecast to expand 4.8% versus 4.5% prior.
The GDP data is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity.
Meanwhile, Retail Sales are expected to show an increase of 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in March, compared to 2.8% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.5% YoY in the same period versus 6.3% prior.
How could the China quarterly GDP affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the China quarterly GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar weakens amid optimism over the ceasefire between the US and Iran.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the March 11 high of 0.7187. The next resistance level emerges at the 0.7200 psychological level, en route to the August 29, 2024 high of 0.6824.
To the downside, the April 10 low of 0.7054 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 0.7000 psychological level. The next contention level is located at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6900.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Apr 16, 2026 02:00
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 1.3%
Previous: 1.2%
Source:
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- The Australian Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.3% in March.
- Australia is expected to have added 20K jobs in the month, fewer than the 48.9K gained in February.
- AUD/USD could reach fresh 2026 highs with upbeat employment data.
Australia will publish the monthly employment report for March on Thursday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants expect a modest increase in job creation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 20K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.3%, unchanged from February. The Participation Rate, in the meantime, stood at 66.9% in the previous month.
The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions through the monthly Employment Change. Generally speaking, full-time jobs entail working 38 hours or more per week, usually include additional benefits, and typically provide a consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time jobs. In February, Australia gained 79.4K part-time positions and lost 30.5K full-time ones.
Australian unemployment rate steady in March
Australia's employment figures may be overshadowed by ongoing optimism. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is firmly up against the battered US Dollar (USD) as investors assess the developments of the Iran war. An extension of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is on the table, boosting the market’s mood despite the double blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East dominates financial markets, as the interruption of crude oil and gas supply has boosted inflationary pressures globally. Central banks are shifting towards a more hawkish monetary policy approach, although that’s not the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which turned hawkish ahead of the war, amid domestic capacity pressures keeping inflation above target and strength in the labor market, according to the statement accompanying the March monetary policy decision. The Iran war was just another factor that lean the scale towards a tighter monetary policy.
As a result, the RBA hiked interest rates, increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as policymakers noted that, “while inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025.” It was quite a split decision, with policymakers voting 5:4 in favor of a hike.
The anticipated employment figures are not really outstanding, and 20K new jobs are hardly enough to prompt by themself a RBA reaction, but coupled with domestic inflationary pressures and the extension of the Iran figure, will pretty much confirm more interest rate hikes are coming this year.
Stronger-than-anticipated job creation, coupled with a decreasing Unemployment Rate, should reinforce rate hike expectations and hence, push the Aussie up against most major rivals. A dismal employment report, on the other hand, could help diminish concerns about the labor market’s strength, but it won’t be sufficient to consider a shift in the current hawkish monetary policy. Near term, it could weigh on the AUD, but as long as risk-on backs USD weakness, the pair is likely to resume its advance once market players digest the news and turn back their eyes to the Middle East.
When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The ABS March employment report will be released early on Thursday. As previously noted, the Australian economy is expected to have added 20K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.3%. Market participants will also be attentive to the breakdown of full-time and part-time positions.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair trades well above the 0.7100 mark and a handful of pips below the 2026 peak at 0.7187 ahead of the employment report release. The technical picture is bullish and there’s a good chance that upbeat data hinting at additional rate hikes would push the pair beyond the mentioned top. The pair could initially run towards the 0.7230 region, while additional gains will find the next resistance at 0.7270.”
Bednarik adds: “As long as markets remain optimistic about the Iran war, the Greenback is set to remain on the back foot, which means the bearish scope for AUD/USD is limited. Employment figures need to be really discouraging to trigger a decline, which, anyway, should be short-lived. The immediate downward barrier is the 0.7100 threshold, followed by the 0.7060 price zone. Further declines seem unlikely within the release, although sudden USD demand can push the pair down to 0.7000.”
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate s.a.
The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Apr 16, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.3%
Previous: 4.3%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Improved risk appetite and lower oil volatility helped the Aussie advance.
- Fed caution and firm US inflation kept markets alert on rates.
- Australia’s jobs report now looms as the next key catalyst.
The Australian Dollar extended its gains on Wednesday, up by 0.72% as risk appetite improved amid speculation of a de-escalation of the conflict, keeping oil prices in check as WTI held above $91, despite posting losses of nearly 0.80%. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7173.
Aussie gains as softer oil and RBA hike bets support the pair
Earlier, US President Donald Trump said the war was “close to over.” Rumors surfaced of a possible two-week ceasefire extension, according to Bloomberg, yet Trump said he does not believe it is needed, given the ongoing negotiations to end the war.
Aside from this, the US economic docket features the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity increased and employment remained steady even though the conflict in the Middle East was cited as a “major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.”
Regarding inflation, the Fed’s Beige Book reported it remained moderate. Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data, particularly the March Producer Price Index (PPI), came in higher at 4%, keeping the Fed in check from shifting monetary policy for 2026.
Alberto Musalem from the St. Louis Fed said that “it’s likely” that higher oil prices might broaden into core inflation, which could push underlying inflation slightly below or around 3%.
In Australia, the docket will feature jobs data, with traders expecting 20K jobs added to the economy in March, and the Unemployment Rate s.a. forecast at 4.3%, unchanged.
A higher-than-expected print would exert pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is expected to tighten policy by at least 54 basis points towards the end of the year, implying two 25-bps rate hikes. For the next meeting, the odds are 66% that the RBA will raise rates.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7173, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the latest triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7037 and the most recent rising trend-line break at 0.7043. The Moving Average Triple (50, 100, 200, Simple) acting as underlying support suggests that dips are being absorbed, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at roughly 66 points to firm but not yet extreme buying momentum, hinting that the advance could extend as long as the pair stays above the mentioned support band.
On the downside, initial support is now seen at the 0.7043 trend-line break and the nearby 0.7037 simple moving average cluster, with a sustained move below this zone needed to weaken the constructive structure. On the topside, resistance is aligned first at the rising support trend line that now breaks around 0.7440, followed by the higher structural cap near 0.7685 and the broader downward resistance line stemming from 0.8015, which together define the next upside objectives if buyers keep control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.72% | -0.24% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.17% | -0.56% | -0.17% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.04% | -0.19% | -0.61% | -0.22% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.26% | -0.66% | -0.29% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.26% | -0.39% | -0.00% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | 0.72% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.66% | 0.39% | 0.40% | 0.72% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.00% | -0.40% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.72% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Israel's Security Cabinet convened to discuss a possible Lebanon ceasefire, a senior Israeli official said, over six weeks into a war with Hezbollah that spiralled out of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Earlier on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran could end soon, telling the world to watch out for an "amazing two days”.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.85% on the day at $87.45.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold price slumps to near $4,800 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Higher oil prices fuel inflation, creating pressure on central banks to maintain tight monetary policy.
- China extends its gold-buying streak to the 18th month.
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to around $4,800, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East created a safe-haven rush, but that momentum faded as oil prices surged. Traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments and economic indicators for fresh impetus.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal. Nonetheless, tensions remain particularly high over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago.
Rising oil prices have heightened energy inflation concerns, which are dampening expectations for interest rate cuts, weighing on the yellow metal. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
On the other hand, higher demand from major central banks could provide some support to the precious metal. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has extended its gold purchasing streak to 18 consecutive months through March 2026. This trend marks a structural shift as institutions prioritize de-dollarization and diversification amid rising global instability.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD trades near 0.5900, with modest gains amid weak momentum.
- RBNZ remains on hold and in wait-and-see mode, limiting upside for the kiwi despite stable conditions.
- USD demand persists amid geopolitical risks and rate expectations, capping further upside in the pair.
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5910 price region, slightly firmer on Thursday, as modest Kiwi strength meets a still-resilient US Dollar (USD) backdrop. Despite the uptick, gains remain limited as markets continue to assess risk sentiment.
On the domestic side, today’s headlines were relatively light, though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) made news by opening a consultation on insurance legislation reforms, reinforcing that policymakers remain focused on financial stability while keeping monetary policy on hold.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5907. The pair retains a bullish near-term bias as it holds right on a horizontal pivot at 0.5907 while staying above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5877 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5787, which together suggest underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 67 remains elevated but shy of overbought territory, suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive, though somewhat stretched after the recent advance.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5921, with a subsequent hurdle at 0.5965 should buyers extend the move. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 0.5907 pivot, followed by 0.5902 and 0.5892, while deeper pullbacks could test the 20-period SMA around 0.5877 ahead of the more distant 100-period SMA near 0.5787 to maintain the broader constructive structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Chinese authorities have raised overseas loan leverage ratios and macroprudential parameters to facilitate outbound and cross-border financing. These measures aim to support investment and stabilize funding conditions, with modest CNY strength and lower China Government Bond yields. The policy stance underscores Beijing’s focus on credit channels rather than headline rate cuts.
China boosts banks’ external lending capacity
"The People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have issued a notice adjusting overseas lending policies for banking institutions."
"The overseas loan leverage ratio for domestic foreign-owned banks, joint ventures and foreign bank branches in mainland China, including those from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, was raised from 0.5 to 1.5."
"The Export-Import Bank’s ratio increased from 3 to 3.5."
"Note that in 2025, China raised its macroprudential adjustment parameter, a multiplier that decides the upper limit of outstanding cross-border financing available to an institution, from 1.5 to 1.75 to facilitate cross-border financing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold tumbles on hopes for US-Iran progress as reduced demand weighs on the precious metal.
- Firmer Treasury yields and resilient equities added pressure on Gold prices.
- Traders still watch Hormuz risks and sticky inflation for fresh direction.
Gold price retreats during the session, down nearly 1%, as risk appetite improves and flows rotate toward US equities, pushing the S&P 500 index past the 7,000 figure, poised to test the all-time high at around 7.014. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades below $4,800 after reaching a peak of $4,871.
Bullion eases as equity gains and firmer yields sap safe-haven demand
Speculation that talks between the US and Iran could end the conflict is growing after US President Donald Trump commented that the war was close to over, adding, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” to an ABC News reporter. Consequently, the safe-haven appeal of Gold, along with money returning to stocks, weighed on the yellow metal despite the overall weakness of the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of six currencies against the US Dollar, is down 0.06% to 98.05, slightly above the six-week low of 97.96. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury note is up three basis points to 4.275%, underpinned by expectations of no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, a headwind for Bullion prices.
Despite the positive news, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps tensions high. Reuters reported that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail through the Omani side of the Strait without interference or attack as part of a deal with the US.
Data-wise, Tuesday’s inflation report showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in March jumped to 4%, but remained shy of the expected 4.6%, largely due to a 15.7% increase in gasoline prices, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The hot US PPI read is further cementing the case for no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Money markets are pricing in just eight basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT).
Federal Reserve interest rate probabilities
Lower interest rate environments benefit Gold prices. A de-escalation of the conflict could ease inflationary pressure. Still, US inflation remains stubbornly sticky at around 3%, and most Fed officials have said the current policy is “appropriate” amid the uncertain environment.
Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed said interest rates are expected to remain unchanged “for a good while.” She does not anticipate any immediate need for the Fed to adjust its current rate policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that high Oil prices are likely to keep underlying inflation nearly a percentage point above the Feds 2% target for 2026. He acknowledged that “It’s likely we’re going to see some pass-through of Oil prices onto core inflation.”
All in all, if the Fed keeps rates steady, XAU/USD could be poised for another leg-down. Eyes are on Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday and additional speeches by Fed officials.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold retreats, struggles to remain above $4,800
Gold’s uptrend remains intact, but after reaching a high near $4,871 and failing to clear the next key resistance level at $4,899, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) drove prices lower.
Price action remains constructive after hitting a four-week high earlier in the session. However, if XAU/USD closes the day below $4,800, a fall toward the April 14 daily log at $4.742 is on the cards.
Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though it is fragile given its proximity to the index-neutral level.
For a bullish continuation, a clear break above $4,850 is needed. Key resistance levels lie at the 50-day SMA at $4,899 and at $4,950, ahead of $5,000.
Conversely, the first key support is $4,750 ahead of the April 14 daily low before testing $4,700. A breach of the latter exposes the confluence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs near $4,684 and $4,640.
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