Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 19:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed near 100.80 on Thursday, a level it hadn’t seen since May 2025, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed Chair on Wednesday. The Fed removed its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments,” reinforcing a more cautious and data-dependent stance.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 in the week ending June 13, close to market expectations of 225,000 and suggesting that layoffs remain limited. Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.81 million, pointing to some softness among workers already receiving unemployment benefits.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.34% | 0.65% | 0.42% | 0.22% | -0.07% | 0.20% | 0.56% | |
| EUR | -0.34% | 0.32% | 0.09% | -0.13% | -0.42% | -0.19% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.65% | -0.32% | -0.23% | -0.44% | -0.72% | -0.48% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.42% | -0.09% | 0.23% | -0.19% | -0.51% | -0.27% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 0.19% | -0.31% | -0.07% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.42% | 0.72% | 0.51% | 0.31% | 0.24% | 0.63% | |
| NZD | -0.20% | 0.19% | 0.48% | 0.27% | 0.07% | -0.24% | 0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.56% | -0.22% | 0.11% | -0.11% | -0.32% | -0.63% | -0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD remained under pressure near 1.1460 amid broad US Dollar (USD) strength. The Euro also remained cautious after European Central Bank (ECB) officials continued to warn about uncertainty surrounding energy prices, inflation transmission, and potential second-round effects on wages.
GBP/USD traded near a two-month low close to the 1.3210 level after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. The BoE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate steady, with most policymakers favoring patience amid uncertainty over the inflation outlook and recent volatility in energy prices. However, two members backed raising the rate to 4.00%, showing that inflation concerns remain.
USD/JPY traded with a firmer tone in intervention territory of 161.40, a level it hasn’t been at since July 2024. The pair benefited from renewed demand for the Greenback as Warsh signaled that policymakers still need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target.
AUD/USD trades muted near 0.7020 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to extend gains, while the US Dollar remains supported by US labor market data.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remained little changed near $75.70 per barrel following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold struggled to gain traction near $4,220 as the Greenback remained supported by the Fed’s cautious policy message. Lower Oil prices and improved risk sentiment limited safe-haven demand, while firm US yields also weighed on the non-yielding metal.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, June 19:
- Germany PPI (May)
- UK Retail Sales (May)
- Canada Retail Sales (Apr)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CHF clears the previous YTD high, confirming bullish continuation structure.
- RSI breaks latest peak, signaling buyers are gaining momentum.
- Break above 0.8100 exposes 0.8124 and 0.8171 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair rallies on Thursday to a new yearly high of 0.8059, surpassing March’s 31 previous peak of 2026 at 0.8042 as the Greenback stages a recovery amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations, which drove the pair to reach the ‘inverted head-and-shoulders’ price target.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows the pair is upwardly biased after clearing its previous yearly peak. USD/CHF buyers are shifting towards challenging the 0.8100 milestone, ahead of the November 2025 peak of 0.8124.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) cleared its latest peak, signaling that buyers are gaining momentum.
Therefore, if USD/CHF clears 0.8100, the 0.8124 high is up next. Once breached, the next area of interest would be the August 2025 high at 0.8171, before buyers test the 0.8200 figure.
On the downside, the USD/CHF first support would be June’s 17 high, turned support at 0.8015. Once cleared, 0.8000 is up next, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7906.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.65% | 0.40% | 0.21% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.65% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | 0.30% | 0.07% | -0.15% | -0.41% | -0.14% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.65% | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.45% | -0.69% | -0.43% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.40% | -0.07% | 0.26% | -0.19% | -0.47% | -0.20% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.21% | 0.15% | 0.45% | 0.19% | -0.28% | -0.00% | 0.42% | |
| AUD | 0.04% | 0.41% | 0.69% | 0.47% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.71% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.14% | 0.43% | 0.20% | 0.00% | -0.27% | 0.43% | |
| CHF | -0.65% | -0.29% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.42% | -0.71% | -0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected on June 18 at 20:21 GMT to say USD/CHF instead of USD/JPY in the technical analysis section.)
- GBP/USD trends close to a two-month low as the Pound struggles.
- The BoE voted 7-2 to hold rates, but two policymakers backed a hike to 4.00%.
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with the removal of “additional rate adjustments” reinforcing a more cautious, data-dependent stance.
The GBP/USD pair trades near a two-month close to the 1.3210 level on Thursday as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to gain traction after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy message.
The BoE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate steady, with most policymakers favoring patience amid uncertainty over the inflation outlook and recent volatility in energy prices. However, the split vote showed that inflation concerns remain, as two members supported raising the rate to 4.00%.
BoE officials warned that the war in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, while inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to increase further this year. The central bank’s cautious tone limited the Pound’s upside as markets assessed whether policymakers could still move toward tighter policy if second-round inflation pressure builds.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar stayed firm after the Fed held interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.
The Fed removed its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments,” reinforcing a more data-dependent stance and reducing expectations of near-term easing.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3205, extending a bearish bias as the pair holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3363 and the 100-period SMA at 1.3404. The clustering of nearby horizontal levels above price, alongside an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 25, suggests the downtrend is stretched but still capped by a dense band of overhead supply.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at 1.3227, followed by 1.3262 and 1.3298, before the stronger barrier at 1.3324. Beyond that, the 20-period SMA at 1.3363 and the 100-period SMA near 1.3404 reinforce a broader resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure, while the absence of nearby chart-derived supports below spot leaves the pair vulnerable to further declines if sellers remain in control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- USD/JPY clears the intervention zone after breaking the April swing high.
- Hawkish Fed dots and yields overpower BoJ rate hike.
- Japanese officials warn they remain ready for decisive action.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens on Thursday to a nearly two-year low against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/JPY pair reaching 161.81, the highest level since July 2024's yearly high of 161.95, spurred by a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and the jump of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the pair posts solid gains of 0.48%.
USD/JPY weakens as Fed repricing revives intervention fears
USD/JPY already surpassed the intervention zone after clearing the April 30 swing high of 160.73, in a day when Japanese authorities drove the pair down by 385 pips to end the day at 156.59. Since then, the pair had enjoyed a bounce of over 487 pips to refresh multi-year highs. Worth noting that if the pair clears 162.00, it would refresh nearly 40-year highs, with the next resistance seen at the December 1986 monthly high of 163.36.
Market sentiment has improved following the Fed's hawkish tilt, which left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday and hinted that nearly half of the FOMC board expects at least one rate hike in 2026. The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, refrained from expressing his views on monetary policy.
In his press conference, Warsh said that forward guidance is not “well suited” to current economic conditions, though he noted that the jobs market is moving in the right direction and that price stability is the Fed's priority. In the meantime, money markets are expecting at least 34 basis points of tightening towards the end of 2026, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Data from the US showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 13 dropped from 230K to 226K, a touch above estimates of 225K, yet still showed an improvement in the labor market.
Alongside the Fed’s policy shift, investors are cheering the US-Iran deal, which usually is a headwind for safe-haven currencies like the Yen. In the meantime, the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said, “We are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time.”
Last week, the Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities were “always prepared to take decisive measures.” The top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, has remained mute since early May, around the April 30 intervention.
This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 1%, yet the Yen failed to gain traction, weighed down by rising US Treasury yields and investors' improving risk appetite.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.64, extending its advance above the clustered support formed by the triple simple moving average around 159.09 and the reclaimed trend-line floors near 157.17 and 154.05, which together suggest a firmly bullish near-term bias. The pair is also holding over the horizontal support at 160.00, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 71 points to overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains strong but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.
On the downside, initial protection is seen at the 160.00 horizontal level, followed by the triple simple moving average around 159.09, where buyers could attempt to reassert control if a dip unfolds. A deeper retracement toward the former trend-line break zones near 157.17 and 154.05 would still keep the broader uptrend intact, but a sustained close below these supports would be needed to undermine the current bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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