Forex News
Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz highlights that the US Dollar (USD) was the third best-performing G10 currency, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outpaced it, pushing USD/CAD down to 1.37, reflecting relative CAD strength on the day. She also cites comments from Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc on resolving trade issues, including disputes over Canada’s supply-managed dairy sector, ahead of the USMCA review and upcoming talks in Mexico City.
CAD leads G10 as pair slips
"Higher oil prices yesterday supported higher US Treasury yields, with a slight steepening bias, with the 2 year closing up 1.2bp and the 10 year up 2.2bp."
"USD was the third best performing G10 currency. But an even better performing G10 currency was CAD, which outperformed USD by 0.28%, as USD/CAD closed the day at 1.37."
"Yesterday, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said that “if [Canada] is going to resolve some of these issues that Ambassador Greer referred to, Canada is ready and willing to do that work.” Such “issues” include long-standing conflicts about Canada’s “supply-managed” dairy industry. As we head into the USMCA review period this summer, Greer will also be heading to Mexico City this upcoming Monday."
"Canada will report March housing starts with expectations for 258,000 units compared to the prior reading of 250,900. International securities transactions data for February will follow, with the previous month showing CAD 46.73b."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that global equities have rebounded to near-record levels on strong Q1 earnings optimism and a ceasefire-driven improvement in risk sentiment. However, he stresses that elevated cross-asset correlations with US Dollar (USD), Oil and bonds, plus shifting expectations toward tighter monetary policy, complicate equity allocation and cloud the risk‑free rate anchor underpinning valuations in the US, Europe and Asia.
Ceasefire bounce meets policy uncertainty
"Q1 earnings started with a bang, with estimates for S&P 500 improving and whispers of 19% earnings, 16% margins in the U.S. Global equity markets are back to near-record levels, recovering most war-related losses. The surge in equity flows this week reflected both stronger earnings and hopes that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would lead to a peace deal."
"The shift from missiles to words lifted risk-taking across asset classes, but the correlation of equities to USD, oil and bonds remains high, which is atypical during earnings season. The lack of divergence in risk-taking across assets makes equity allocation during earnings more complex."
"The EU’s fiscal costs are estimated at 0.6% of GDP; Asia’s are estimated at 1–2% of GDP. Bond markets have not fully priced in the cost of new fiscal spending or the inflationary effects of the supply shock. However, these factors have shifted monetary policy expectations from easing to tightening."
"Among developed market central banks, only the Fed is still seen as likely to ease, with markets pricing just a 40% chance of one cut by year end. Together, these factors cloud the risk-free rate anchor that underpins equity valuations."
"The rally in equity holdings at the start of 2026 was most extreme in EM shares, and the 15% drawdown from peak holdings still leaves emerging markets vulnerable to further reallocation, if inflation and policy issues block earnings growth – particularly in Asia."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Danske Research Team keeps its EUR/SEK outlook unchanged. The cross is currently trading comfortably around 10.80, with NOK/SEK back above 0.98. The bank maintains its existing forecast profile, projecting EUR/SEK at 11.00 over a 6–12 month horizon, reflecting a relatively stable Swedish Krona (SEK) backdrop and no major reassessment of fundamentals.
EUR/SEK seen near 11.00 later
"In Sweden, the Riksbank's Per Jansson said the food VAT cut is exerting downward pressure on inflation, while higher energy costs are pushing inflation up. He therefore noted that this supply shock can largely be looked through, though vigilance remains warranted. He added that the situation remains different from 2022 as inflation pressure is now lower, demand is weaker and SEK is stronger."
"Meanwhile, EUR/SEK is comfortable around 10.80 for the time being."
"For EUR/SEK, we leave our forecast profile unchanged, forecasting EUR/SEK at 11.00 in 6-12M."
"For EUR/NOK, we remain skeptical with respect to the longevity of the rally and thus leave our forecast profile unchanged this month keeping an upward slope in 6M and 12M."
As a result, NOK/SEK is back above 0.98. EUR/DKK is stuck close to the 7.4732 level.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee gains against the US Dollar due to the RBI’s measures to curb dollar buying.
- US President Trump said that Iran is willing to give up its nuclear ambitions.
- FIIs remained net buyers in the last two trading days.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the opening of special credit lines for state-run oil buyers to meet their foreign exchange needs has strengthened the Asian currency. The USD/INR pair declines to near 92.70 after remaining sideways in the last two trading days.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) urged state-run oil refiners to curb spot dollar purchases and to tap a special credit line, in an attempt to reduce the impact of dollar buying by state-run oil refiners on the domestic currency, Reuters report. This facility was also started by the RBI when the Russia-Ukraine war started.
The Indian central bank has been taking several measures to limit the downside in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. In late March, the RBI directed banks to cap their net open rupee positions in the foreign exchange market at $100 million by the end of each business day.
Trump seems confident of a deal with Iran
Oil prices remain capped, and the market sentiment is broadly risk-on as United States (US) President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that a deal with Iran is very likely. “We're very close to a deal with Iran,” Trump said in a press briefing on Thursday. However, he warned that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not reached.
The overall commentary from US President Trump appeared to be expressing optimism toward a permanent truce with Iran. Trump said that Iran is now “more willing to do things today they previously weren't”, such as giving up nuclear ambitions and handing over enriched uranium.
Upbeat market sentiment has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.25, but is set for a consecutive negative weekly close.
Meanwhile, capped WTI Oil prices around $90 from the past few days after surging above $100 is also offering support to the Indian Rupee. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, take a recovery route when oil prices start correcting.
FIIs start buying in Indian stock market
The response by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) toward the Indian equity market appears to start improving since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8. In the last two trading days, FIIs have remained net buyers and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,048.51 crore. However, the amount of investment is significantly lower than the selling pressure seen before the temporary truce announcement.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more downside toward 92.45
USD/INR trades lower at around 92.70, as of writing, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.06. The recent pullback from last week’s highs has pushed the price under this short-term trend gauge, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.6 has slipped just below the neutral 50 line, hinting that upside momentum is fading without yet signaling oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is now defined by the 20-day EMA at 93.07, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and reopen the path toward recent peaks above 95.00. As long as the pair holds beneath this moving average, rebounds are likely to struggle, leaving risks skewed toward additional consolidation or further slippage in the coming sessions toward the March 3 high of 92.46.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Societe Generale analysts observe USD/JPY remains little changed for a second week, trading just below 160 where verbal intervention risk persists. They note softer Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike pricing after Governor Ueda’s cautious stance and a BoJ call change that delays the next 25 bp increase to June or July, leaving Japanese Yen dynamics tightly linked to policy expectations and intervention threats.
Yen steady as BoJ delays next hike
"USD/JPY: 159.03 - 159.53 overnight range. Spot little changed for second week, proximity to 160 keeps alive (verbal) intervention threat. Support 157.51, resistance 160.00."
"BoJ call change: next 25bp increase postponed to June (or July depending on Iran war), followed by October or December."
"Pricing for the BoJ fell to 4bp after Governor Ueda uncharacteristically kept markets guessing two weeks before the policy meeting."
"Japan FinMin Katayama said many central banks attending the IMF meetings this week had noted that it’s better to wait-and-see on policy for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Japanese Yen faces selling pressure against its peers as BoJ’s Ueda warns of upside inflation and downside growth risks.
- US President Trump expresses confidence that Washington is close to making a deal with Iran.
- The US Dollar remains under pressure amid Iran truce optimism.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rises to near 159.50 as the Asia-Pacific currency faces selling pressure, following warnings of energy crisis-driven high inflation and weak economic growth by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda in his comments delivered earlier in the day.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.15% | 0.05% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.23% | -0.17% | 0.03% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.15% | 0.04% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.15% | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
BoJ’s Ueda said in a press conference that Japan is facing upside inflation risks from a "negative supply shock" in the wake of the Middle East war, which is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than “inflation driven by strong demand”, Reuters report.
Kazuo Ueda added that higher oil prices would hurt the economy by worsening Japan’s terms of trade, a scenario that typically diminishes hopes of interest rate hikes by the respective central bank. Meanwhile, the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the BoJ is scheduled on April 28.
On the geopolitical front, investors await the announcement of the timeline of the second round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran. By that time, US President Donald Trump had expressed confidence that Washington is “very close” to making a deal with Iran. Trump has stated that Iran seems more willing than before to give up its intentions to build nuclear infrastructure and hand over the enriched uranium.
The optimism of a US-Iran permanent ceasefire is keeping the US Dollar (USD) under pressure. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.20, but is still close to its over six-week low of 97.83.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD failed to break clearly above 1.1825 and has slipped into consolidation after a sharp pullback from 1.1823 to 1.1766. They retain a mildly positive 1–3 week bias, eyeing potential gains toward 1.1850, but stress that a break below 1.1735 would signal the Euro is no longer advancing.
Consolidation but positive bias intact
"We have held a positive EUR stance since late last week. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (15 Apr, spot at 1.1800), we highlighted the following: “Upward momentum remains modest for now. That said, EUR could continue to rise, but it remains to be seen if 1.1850 is within reach.”. Yesterday, EUR rose to a fresh high of 1.1823 and then pulled back."
"The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1760 and 1.1805."
"Upward momentum has eased somewhat but only a breach of 1.1735 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would indicate that EUR is not rising further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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