Forex News
- GBP/JPY crawls to 212.50 highs in upbeat UK data, renewed Japanese fiscal concerns.
- UK final Services Activity data for July has been revised up to 52.1, from preliminary estimates of 51.8.
- In Japan, the government approved a tax-slashing plan, renewing concerns about fiscal stability.
The British Pound (GBP) extends gains for the second consecutive day against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, with the GBP/JPY pair holding around 212.30 after bouncing from five-month lows at 209.55 on Monday. An upward revision of UK services data has provided some support to the Pound, while concerns about the consequences of a tax-slashing plan in Japan are hurting the Yen
In the UK, July’s final S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading has been revised up to 52.1, from preliminary estimations of 51.8, confirming a sharp improvement from the 48.8 reading posted in June.
Japanese Yen comes under pressure
The Japanese Yen, on the other hand, is showing moderate weakness, despite investors' wariness about further FX interventions and the US commitment to defend Yen stability. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has signed a plan to cut the consumption tax on food, from 8% to 1% for two years from April 2027. This has brought concerns about the pressure on an already strained fiscal balance back to the table.
In that line, strategists at BNY report that their latest positioning data shows investors looking to “maintain net positive cross-border exposure to JPY,” but they caution that “developments in recent months, both due to external shocks and domestic credibility issues, have weakened resolve.”
In their view, recent “U.S. support provides an opening for re-accumulation,” yet they argue that the broader market is likely to “agree with Bessent that any structural shift in holdings will depend on credible domestic policy changes,” underscoring that a more durable rebuilding of Yen exposure hinges on Japan’s own policy follow-through rather than external backstops alone.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Services PMI
The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Last release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 08:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.1
Consensus: 51.8
Previous: 51.8
Source: S&P Global
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Last release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 08:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.2
Consensus: 52.1
Previous: 52.1
Source: S&P Global
- The Indian Rupee gives back some of its early gains against the US Dollar after the RBI's policy decision.
- The RBI leaves the Repo Rate steady at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row.
- Oil prices fall sharply on US-Iran deal hopes.
The Indian Rupee (INR) surrenders some gains after a strong opening against the US Dollar (USD), following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision. The USD/INR opened sharply lower near the monthly low at around 94.80 due to lower oil prices, but it has clawed back some of its early losses and has rebounded to near 95.12.
The RBI has left its Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected, for the fourth time in a row, and has maintained a "neutral" stance on the monetary policy.
The Indian central bank was expected to maintain the status quo as the retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained well within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%-6%, despite arriving higher at 4.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has warned that the West Asia conflict continues to challenge the global economy, with crude oil prices, currencies, and financial markets remaining volatile. Regarding inflation, Malhotra has said that higher fuel and food prices have started showing little signs of generalization of price pressures so far. He added that core inflation is expected to accelerate towards 5.9% YoY in the third quarter, but will peak from there and start cooling down to 5.5% YoY in the fourth quarter.
On the economic outlook, RBI Governor Malhotra has assured that economic activity remained robust, stating, "Indian economy performed better than expected in Q1 FY27."
US-Iran deal hopes push oil prices lower further
Oil prices extend their decline on Wednesday amid hopes that the US and Iran will reach a deal soon. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that Washington could reach a deal with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply, within the next two days.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 1.6% lower to near Rs. 7,100.
Meanwhile, Qatar also confirmed on Tuesday that mediators including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are coordinating closely to facilitate negotiations and exchange drafts between both sides.
However, financial markets remain uncertain regarding whether the US-Iran deal on Hormuz will restore freedom of movement through the passage.
US ADP Employment data in focus
In the US, investors await key US ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
Economists at Deutsche Bank anticipate a slightly firmer US labor market print on Wednesday, projecting private payrolls to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The private sector employment data is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees fresh downside below 94.80
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.12 at press time. The pair remains under pressure in the near term, holding below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.6394, which suggests that recent rebounds are still being sold into.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42.00 stays in bearish territory but above oversold, hinting at persistent downside bias while leaving room for further weakness before stretched conditions emerge.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near 95.64, which needs to be reclaimed to ease the immediate bearish tone and open the way for a more meaningful recovery toward 96.00. Looking down, the pair could decline toward the June low at 94.15 if it fails to hold the intraday low at around 94.80.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Standard Chartered Bank economists Saurav Anand and Anubhuti Sahay note that India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, sounding more dovish than in April and June. The committee cut its FY27 CPI and core inflation forecasts, raised its GDP outlook, and appears comfortable with inflation, suggesting a prolonged pause in rates barring major upside surprises.
MPC comfort on inflation underpins rate pause
"India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in a unanimous decision and maintained its neutral stance, broadly in line with our and consensus expectations."
"However, we were surprised by the relatively dovish tone of the MPC’s statement compared with the April and June policy meetings."
"Overall, while the MPC remains vigilant on future risks, particularly El Niño and crude oil prices, it is inclined to wait for greater clarity on the inflation trajectory and composition before considering rate action."
"For now, the bar for rate hikes appears high unless inflation materially exceeds expectations."
"This is consistent with our baseline view of no change in the repo rate in FY27."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/JPY price action as muted, with the pair confined to 157.15–157.95 and momentum turning flat. They expect intraday range trading between 157.00 and 158.30. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the risk remains to the downside toward 155.00 and 154.10, provided the strong resistance at 160.00 is not breached, despite some slowing in downward momentum.
Range trade but focus on lower levels
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following USD’s price action on Monday, we stated yesterday that “the sharp swings have resulted in a mixed outlook.” We also stated that USD “could trade between 156.20 and 158.50.” We did not expect muted price action as USD traded within a relatively tight range between 157.15 and 157.95. Momentum indicators are turning flat, and today, USD could trade between 157.00 and 158.30."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 156.20), we highlighted that “the risk for USD remains firmly on the downside, and the levels to watch are 155.00 and 154.10.” Although USD fell briefly to 155.21, it has since rebounded, and downward momentum has slowed somewhat. That said, we will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 160.00 (no change in level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold accelerates its recovery with bulls attempting to break a triangle pattern at the $4,125 area.
- Soft US data and cooling hopes of Fed rate hikes are hurting the US Dollar on Wednesday
- XAU/USD bulls are targeting the key resistance area around $4,220.
Gold (XAU/USD) has accelerated its recovery on Wednesday, favoured by a softer US Dollar as lower Oil prices and downbeat US macroeconomic data cooled market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes on Tuesday. This has enticed Gold buyers to push the precious metal above the top of a triangle pattern, at the $4,125 area, in a move that is still to be confirmed.
Bullion is drawing support from lower US Treasury yields, following softer-than-expected US Job Openings and Factory Orders figures released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the decline in Oil prices, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $10 below last week's highs, has eased concerns about the inflationary impact of energy prices. In this context, investors have cut back bets of a Fed rate hike in September to 58% from 67% on Tuesday, according to data by the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.
Technical Analysis: Gold needs to break $4,220 to confirm a deeper correction
XAU/USD trades at $4,161, holding a constructive near-term bias after reaching one-week highs above the top of a descending triangle. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts endorse the positive view, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 hinting at a building bullish while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly above zero strengthens the case for a moderate upside bias.
Bulls, however, will have to clear the horizontal barrier around $4,220 (June 22 highs) to confirm a bullish reversal and set sail for the mid-June highs, at $4,380.
A bearish reaction, on the other hand, is likely to find support at the $4,000 psychological level, although the key support area lies at the $3,945 area, the bottom of the mentioned triangle. A confirmation below here negates the bullish view and brings the late October 2025 lows, at $3,886, into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose explains that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has recently given back gains as external shocks and an ongoing Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) easing cycle erode support. With the currency back above 360 versus Euro (EUR), markets await Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes for signs of a more conditional stance on rate cuts that could limit further Forint downside and reinforce foreign exchange stability.
Forint relies on conditional MNB easing
"That trend has become less convincing over the past month, however, with the forint surrendering a meaningful share of its earlier gains to return to its erstwhile 360-plus range versus the euro."
"The second factor is monetary policy. MNB had just kicked off a monetary easing cycle and, following its July meeting, indicated that it sees room for additional rate cuts during the summer before reassessing the outlook in September – this guidance sounds like a relatively unconditional commitment to further easing even though the balance of inflation risks has just swung. That has inevitably reduced some of the forint’s interest rate support."
"A more conditional tone would help reassure markets that MNB may soon ditch the rate cutting cycle, which would limit further downside pressure on the forint. In the end, MNB’s long-standing emphasis has also been about maintaining foreign exchange stability."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.52 per troy ounce, up 2.87% from the $59.81 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 13.45% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 61.52 |
1 Gram | 1.98 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.64 on Wednesday, down from 68.18 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Wednesday, down 0.54% on the day.
- The New Zealand Dollar weakens after the unemployment rate rises more than expected in the second quarter.
- Markets scale back expectations of further monetary tightening by New Zealand's central bank.
NZD/USD declines to around 0.5860 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.54% on the day, following the release of weaker-than-expected New Zealand employment data. The New Zealand Dollar (USD) comes under selling pressure as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
Data released by Statistics New Zealand showed that New Zealand's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.6% in the second quarter, up from 5.3% in the previous quarter and above the market consensus of 5.4%. The reading marks the highest level since 2015, highlighting the continued deterioration in the labor market.
At the same time, New Zealand's Employment Change increased by 0.5% in the second quarter, up from 0.2% previously and above market expectations of 0.2%. The participation rate also rose to 70.7% from 70.4% in the previous quarter, pointing to an increase in labor supply despite softer labor market conditions.
The larger-than-expected increase in unemployment weakens the case for further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), weighing on the New Zealand Dollar. Traders now see greater scope for the central bank to maintain a cautious stance as the economy slows.
Markets are now turning their attention to upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including the ADP Employment Change report and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), ahead of Friday's official US employment report.
NZD/USD technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5863 with a mildly bearish intraday bias, holding just above nearby horizontal support while capped by overhead moving average. The pair sits below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5872 and beneath the downward resistance trend line coming in around 0.5896, keeping rebounds in check. The 200-hour SMA at 0.5829 remains comfortably below price, hinting that the broader downtrend is not aggressive, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a clean bullish setup.
On the downside, initial support appears at the recent horizontal floor around 0.5860, followed by a secondary shelf at 0.5849; a sustained break beneath these levels could expose the 200-hour SMA support near 0.5829. On the topside, buyers would need to reclaim the 100-hour SMA at 0.5872 first, with a subsequent push toward the descending trend-line resistance around 0.5896 to signal that bears are losing near-term control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Nationalbanken did not intervene in July to support Denmark’s fixed exchange rate policy, after a small purchase of kroner in June. He argues the recent weakening of the Danish krone against the Euro reflects shifts in domestic corporate demand and expects the EUR/DKK interest rate differential to stay unchanged for an extended period.
Danish krone weakness without fresh intervention
"Over the past month, there has been no need to purchase kroner in support of Denmark's fixed exchange rate policy."
"The July figures were awaited with particular interest, as Nationalbanken in June purchased DKK 0.7 billion to curb a further weakening of the Danish krone against the euro."
"The absence of intervention in July supports our view that the weakening of the Danish krone against the euro is due to changes in the underlying demand for Danish kroner among domestic non-financial corporates."
"Given this circumstance, and given that Nationalbanken, in our assessment, will, going forward, seek to create a more symmetric fluctuation band in EUR/DKK around the central parity, the current interest rate differential between Denmark and the euro area of -0.4 percentage points will in all likelihood remain unchanged for an extended period."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Traders opt to wait for fresh developments surrounding the ongoing Middle East crisis.
- The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
The GBP/USD pair gains follow-through positive traction for the second straight day and sticks to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and currently trade just above mid-1.3400s, up less than 0.10% for the day.
The latest optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to a four-week low, easing inflation fears. Traders were quick to react and trimmed their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. This, in turn, undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which is seen acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
Investors, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices keep the near-term tone constructive while above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, momentum indicators are mildly supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive near the zero line. This suggests steady bullish pressure as long as the GBP/USD pair remains above the underlying average.
Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the 1.3400 mark, which should limit the downside near the 200-period SMA pivotal support around 1.3379. A convincing break below, however, would weaken the bullish bias and open the way to deeper losses. On the top side, bulls may look to the weekly top, around the 1.3500 psychological mark, as a reference point for potential resistance should the GBP/USD pair extend its advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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