Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 8:
Safe-haven flows return to markets to start the new week as investors react to news of a renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Monday, allowing market participants to stay focused on geopolitical headlines.
Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since the ceasefire agreement was reached on April 8.
Iran fired missiles at Israel on Sunday in retaliation for an Israeli attack in Lebanon. Israeli military said that it intercepted the missiles and launched a retaliatory attack, striking military targets in western and central Iran. Iranian state television reported the sound of explosions being heard in Isfahan, Tabriz and Tehran. Early Monday, Israeli military noted that its air force struck several targets at the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr in southwestern Iran, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that they launched attacks against Israeli air bases Nevatim and Tel Nof as a response to attacks on radar sites within Iran and added that they are "ready for any scenario and for widespread operations on all fronts."
United States (US) President Donald Trump told the Financial Times that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude the negotiations with Iran and said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept a deal with Iran.
US Dollar Index edged higher in the Asian session on Monday and reached its highest level since early April above 100.00 before retreating slightly. In the meantime, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gains more than 4% on the day and trades near $92.50.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.03% | 0.85% | 0.59% | 1.00% | 1.72% | 2.87% | 1.97% | |
| EUR | -1.03% | -0.20% | -0.46% | -0.03% | 0.67% | 1.84% | 0.93% | |
| GBP | -0.85% | 0.20% | -0.24% | 0.16% | 0.87% | 2.04% | 1.11% | |
| JPY | -0.59% | 0.46% | 0.24% | 0.45% | 1.16% | 2.29% | 1.37% | |
| CAD | -1.00% | 0.03% | -0.16% | -0.45% | 0.69% | 1.83% | 0.94% | |
| AUD | -1.72% | -0.67% | -0.87% | -1.16% | -0.69% | 1.16% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | -2.87% | -1.84% | -2.04% | -2.29% | -1.83% | -1.16% | -0.91% | |
| CHF | -1.97% | -0.93% | -1.11% | -1.37% | -0.94% | -0.26% | 0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Friday, the data from the US showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 172K in May. This reading followed the 179K increase (revised from 115K) recorded in April and surpassed the market expectation of 85K by a wide margin. Other details of the publication showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, as anticipated, while the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 61.8%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3.4% from 3.6% in April, matching analysts' estimates.
The USD gathered strength as the upbeat labor market data allowed markets to continue to price in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a nearly 55% probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points in September.
Gold (XAU/USD) lost more than 3% on Friday and continued to stretch lower early Monday. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading slightly above $4,300, at its weakest level since March 23.
EUR/USD opened under bearish pressure and came within a touching distance of 1.1500 before recovering above 1.1530 by the early European morning.
GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a narrow range at around 1.3350 after losing about 0.9% in the previous week.
The Korean Won (KRW) weakened sharply against the USD on Friday and USD/KRW hit its highest level since March 2009 at 1,561.8. Early Monday, South Korea's foreign exchange authorities intervened verbally, saying that they will not tolerate and will strongly respond to excessive volatility compared with economic fundamentals and herd-like behaviour. As of writing, USD/KRW was down about 1.5% on the day at 1,537.8.
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) remains under persistent selling pressure and USD/IDR trades at a new all-time high at around 18,200 on Monday. Growing fiscal anxieties, new commodity export policies, and skepticism surrounding the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) operational autonomy continue to weigh on the IDR.
After closing the previous week in positive territory, USD/JPY stays in a consolidation phase above 160.00 on Monday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Gold adds to Friday’s upbeat US NFP-inspired losses and drops to a fresh low since March.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven USD.
- Inflationary concerns fuel hawkish Fed bets and further weigh on the non-yielding bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) drops to its lowest level since March 23 during the Asian session on Monday and now seems to have found acceptance below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Renewed hostilities in the Gulf push Crude Oil prices higher, fanning inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the non-yielding bullion. Bearish traders, however, await acceptance below the $4,300 mark before placing fresh bets amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous new phase, with both sides exchanging attacks across multiple fronts. Israel said that it carried out fresh strikes on military targets in western and central Iran after the latter fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel’s Ramat David air base on Sunday night. The tensions have spilled beyond the two countries, with reports of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Iranian military action in northern Iraq, raising fears of a wider regional conflict. The developments threaten a fragile ceasefire and temper hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war, assisting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to preserve its recent strong gains to a two-month high.
Adding to this, the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday reaffirmed bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. In fact, the US jobs data showed that the economy added 172K new jobs in May, compared to 85K estimated and the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 179K. Additional details revealed that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3%, as anticipated, offsetting the widely expected slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings growth to the 3.4% YoY rate from 3.6% in April. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in over a 70% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year.
The outlook, in turn, is seen as another factor acting as a tailwind for the Greenback, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD and the precious metal at the mercy of incoming geopolitical headlines. Later this week, traders will take cues from the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Apart from this, the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting should infuse volatility in the financial markets.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold awaits convincing break below $4,300 before extending the downfall
The XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish bias inside a downward parallel channel and below the 200-day SMA. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits in negative territory with a widening bearish profile. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 33 suggests persistent downside pressure, though nearing oversold conditions that could slow immediate follow-through.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-day SMA at $4,436.56, with the channel’s upper boundary near $4,555.49 acting as a stronger cap while the broader downtrend persists. On the downside, the lower band of the descending channel around $4,242.07 offers initial support, and a clear break beneath this floor would open the door to a deeper corrective leg within the prevailing bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- EUR/USD may retest the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.1510.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 35 suggests persisting downside pressure.
- The initial resistance appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.1591.
EUR/USD rebounds after registering 0.75% losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is positioned near the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern.
The EUR/USD pair is preserving a bearish near-term bias as spot holds under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 is edging closer to oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure persists, the pace of the recent decline could slow as sellers approach stretched conditions.
The EUR/USD pair may retest the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.1510. A break below the channel would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 10-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1591, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.1654. Next resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.1710; a break above it would expose a nearly four-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.22% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.07% | -0.11% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.04% | 0.01% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD attracts some buyers after touching a two-month low during the Asian session.
- Geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike bets support the USD, capping the upside for the pair.
- The technical setup favors bears and warrants caution before positioning for further gains.
The NZD/USD pair stages a modest recovery following an Asian session dip to the 0.5780 region, or a two-month low, as the US Dollar (USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase on Monday. Spot prices climb back above the 0.5800 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive.
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous new phase, with both sides exchanging attacks across multiple fronts, keeping geopolitical risks in play. Furthermore, Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reaffirmed market bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in 2026, which assists the USD to hold steady near a two-month top and should cap the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent failure near the 0.6000 psychological mark constituted the formation of a bearish double top pattern on the 4-hour chart. A subsequent breakdown through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 0.5900 mark and the neckline support near the 0.5825-0.5820 area suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, hinting that downside pressure persists. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 28, showing oversold conditions that may slow, but not yet reverse, the current decline. Hence, any further recovery is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 200-period SMA at 0.5895.
The NZD/USD pair would need to reclaim this level to ease the prevailing bearish structure. Momentum readings from both MACD and RSI sit in negative and oversold zones, respectively, acting as a warning that although the downfall is stretched, any recovery attempts are likely to encounter selling interest before a sustained base is formed.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.05% | 0.86% | 0.61% | 1.01% | 1.76% | 2.90% | 2.00% | |
| EUR | -1.05% | -0.20% | -0.46% | -0.04% | 0.70% | 1.86% | 0.94% | |
| GBP | -0.86% | 0.20% | -0.24% | 0.15% | 0.90% | 2.06% | 1.12% | |
| JPY | -0.61% | 0.46% | 0.24% | 0.43% | 1.19% | 2.30% | 1.37% | |
| CAD | -1.01% | 0.04% | -0.15% | -0.43% | 0.73% | 1.86% | 0.97% | |
| AUD | -1.76% | -0.70% | -0.90% | -1.19% | -0.73% | 1.15% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | -2.90% | -1.86% | -2.06% | -2.30% | -1.86% | -1.15% | -0.92% | |
| CHF | -2.00% | -0.94% | -1.12% | -1.37% | -0.97% | -0.26% | 0.92% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD posts modest losses near 1.3340 in Monday’s early European session.
- Intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on the British Pound.
- BoE’s Bailey signaled the central bank is in "no rush" to raise interest rates.
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3340 during the European trading hours on Monday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising bets of a US interest rate hike provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).
The BBC reported on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that it struck military targets in western and central Iran, hours after Iran fired a salvo of missiles at northern Israel. Iranian officials said that any attack from Israel against Lebanon or Iran would be met with a "crushing and comprehensive response.”
Additionally, Iran’s ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, said that the Strait of Hormuz will be open but under new conditions to be set by Iran and Oman, including a transit fee, per Reuters. Escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair in the near term.
The US economy posted a third straight month of strong job gains in May, with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rising by 172K in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This figure followed the 179K increase (revised from 115K) and was better than the forecast of 85K. This robust jobs data has reignited expectations that the Fed may raise the interest rate later this year, lifting the USD.
On the UK’s front, Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey delivered dovish remarks, saying that the UK central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates while the outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain and the UK’s growth rate stays weak.
Financial markets had expected the BoE to cut interest rates twice this year to 3.25%. Since the US-Iran war began, the situation has reversed, and now a rise of 25 basis points (bpd) before December is forecast, according to CNBC.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Indian Rupee opens on a negative note against the US Dollar.
- The US Dollar gains as surprisingly strong US NFP numbers boost hawkish Fed bets.
- Renewed Israel-Iran war has prompted oil prices.
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising to near 95.30. The pair gains at open as surprisingly upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May has strengthened the US Dollar, and rising oil prices due to re-escalating conflicts between Iran and Israel have weakened the Indian Rupee.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Friday’s gains around 100.00, the highest zone seen in two months.
Upbeat US NFP data prompts hawkish Fed bets
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported surprisingly upbeat official employment data for May. The US NFP arrived significantly higher at 172K against 85K estimates. Meanwhile, the April reading was also revised higher to 179K from 115K. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.3%, as expected. Strong job growth data, compounded with already high inflationary pressures, have resulted in a significant increase in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the possibility of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year has increased to 73.8% from 45.2% seen a week ago.
Oil prices jump on renewed Middle East conflicts
The attacks from Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in western and central Iran over the weekend, despite US President Donald Trump urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran’s attacks, have renewed fears of an all-out war in the Middle East.
Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets over the weekend in retaliation for Israeli aggression in Lebanon.
Rising hostilities in the Middle East have raised concerns over the US-Iran peace deal, prompting fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has resulted in a sharp increase in oil prices. As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is up 4.6% to near 9,020.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
FIIs continue to remain net sellers in Indian stock market
So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days, and offloaded their stake worth Rs. 30,814.47 crore. Overseas investors also remained net sellers in May and pared their stake worth Rs. 55,963.33 crore. Foreign investors are dumping their investments in the Indian stock market due to growing concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections amid higher oil prices.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR attarct bids near 95.00
USD/INR trades higher at around 95.30 with a mildly bearish near-term bias, holding just under its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.4320. The pair has retreated from recent highs and the loss of traction against this short-term EMA hints that upside momentum is fading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 suggests neutral momentum rather than a clear directional push.
On the downside, immediate focus is on whether sellers can keep the pair capped beneath the 20-day EMA at 95.4320, which now acts as the first area of supply limiting rebounds. A sustained daily close back above this moving average would ease the current pressure and open the door to a further slippage towards the May 7 low around 94.00. Looking up, the pair needs to return above the 20-day EMA to ease downside pressure, and a further rally above the June 4 high at 96.30 would allow it to reclaim the all-time high around 97.10.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, said that the Strait of Hormuz will be open but under new conditions to be set by Iran and Oman, including a transit fee, Reuters reported on Monday.
"Of course, this strait will be open, but with new conditions to be determined by the Iranian and Omani authorities," Ambassador Kazem Jalali said. "We understand that Iran and Oman provide certain services related to this strait. And fees will be charged for those services," he added.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 4.60% on the day at $92.65.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- WTI kicks off the new week on an update note as renewed hostilities dampen peace deal hopes.
- The technical setup warrants caution for bulls and positioning for any further appreciating move.
- A sustained break through the 200-SMA on H4 is needed to negate any near-term negative bias.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week as renewed hostilities in the Gulf dampen hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war. The commodity sticks to modest intraday gains around the $92.00 mark through the Asian session and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak.
Israel said that it carried out fresh strikes on military targets in western and central Iran after the latter fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel’s Ramat David air base on Sunday night. Adding to this, reports of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Iranian military action in northern Iraq raise fears of a wider regional conflict, threatening a fragile cease-fire and dampening hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war. This, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, turns out to be a key factor lending support to Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the black liquid retains a capped tone beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly negative, hinting that bearish momentum is not yet exhausted. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 shows only modest positive bias and does little to offset the weight of the overhead 200-period SMA pivotal resistance at $95.38. Bulls would need to reclaim the said barrier to ease the current downside pressure.
On the flip side, the immediate downside focus stays on a strong horizontal support between $86.50 and $86.00. A convincing break below would leave Crude Oil prices vulnerable to renewed selling toward sub-$81.00 levels, or the April monthly swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,260.98 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,302.79 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 154,669.40 per tola from INR 155,158.00 per tola on friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,260.98 |
10 Grams | 132,605.00 |
Tola | 154,669.40 |
Troy Ounce | 412,455.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/IDR appreciates as fiscal anxieties, new export policies, and BI autonomy doubts pressure the Indonesian Rupiah.
- Heavy BI interventions cut Indonesia's forex reserves by $1.3 billion to $144.9 billion, a five-month decline and a two-year low.
- The US Dollar may further advance as strong US jobs data boost expectations of a Fed interest rate hike this year.
USD/IDR extends its gains for the fifth successive day, trading around 18,200 after hitting an all-time high of 18,210 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces renewed pressure from growing fiscal anxieties, new commodity export policies, and skepticism surrounding Bank Indonesia’s (BI) operational autonomy. These domestic strains significantly deepened the IDR's slide, forcing the central bank to step in aggressively to stabilize the market.
According to data released by BI on Monday, these heavy interventions caused Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves to drop by $1.3 billion in May, landing at $144.9 billion. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, dragging reserves down to their lowest level in nearly two years, equivalent to 5.6 months of imports, and highlighting the steep cost of defending the Rupiah.
The USD/IDR pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid increased safe-haven demand after the Israeli military stated a missile had been launched from Yemen towards Israeli territory, which has been intercepted by its aerial defense systems.
The Guardian reported that air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv, following the attack from Yemen. The retaliatory attacks from Yemen, whose military force, the Houthis, is backed by Iran, reflect that conflicts in the Middle East have started again.
The Greenback received support after stronger-than-expected US employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 172,000 jobs in May, compared to 179,000 (revised from 115,000) in the previous reading, and the Unemployment Rate held at 4.3% during the same period.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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