Forex News
- USD/JPY remains trapped between 158.60 and 159.40 range.
- RSI flattens in bullish territory, signaling stalled upside momentum.
- Break below 159.00 exposes 158.78 and 158.15 supports.
USD/JPY hovers at around 159.00, virtually unchanged, amid traders' fears that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades unchanged at around 159.02.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action remains contained within the 158.60-159.40 area, with buyers reluctant to push higher past 159.50 towards the 160.00 milestone. The confirmation of this is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory, but with a flattish slope during the last four trading days.
If bulls reclaim 159.50, look for a move towards the 159.75 psychological area, ahead of 160.00. Past this, the next resistance is the yearly peak at 160.73.
On the flip side, if sellers push the USD/JPY below 159.00, a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.78 is on the cards. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the 20-day SMA at 158.15, followed by 158.00. On further weakness, a move towards the 100-day SMA at 157.56 is on the cards.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.81% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.01% | -0.54% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.86% | 0.18% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.51% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.81% | 0.86% | 0.98% | 1.00% | 0.81% | 0.35% | 0.77% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.98% | -0.01% | -0.23% | -0.74% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.14% | -1.00% | 0.01% | -0.21% | -0.73% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.81% | 0.23% | 0.21% | -0.45% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.51% | -0.35% | 0.74% | 0.73% | 0.45% | 0.42% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.77% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.08% | -0.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, climbed 0.9% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to 0.9% in the previous reading, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Monday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.5%.
This figure followed 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and came in above the market consensus of 0.5%.
Market reaction to New Zealand’s Retail Sales
At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading 0.07% higher on the day at 0.5875.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- Silver prints higher highs and lows, signaling improving structure.
- RSI remains bearish but rises, showing sellers losing momentum.
- Break above $77.51 exposes $80.00 and 100-day SMA resistance.
Silver price consolidates around $76.50 per troy ounce amid a narrow trading session driven by Middle East developments, keeping investors uncertain about a US-Iran deal. At the time of writing, the white metal is up over 1%.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Silver is poised to trade sideways with key resistance levels lying overhead. Although it has printed back-to-back days with higher highs and higher lows, a daily close above $70.00 is needed if buyers would like to test higher prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish below its neutral level, but it’s aiming steadily higher. This indicates that sellers are losing momentum, and buyers might be stepping in. Hence, in the short term, further upside is expected in the XAG/USD.
A breach above $70.00 will expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.51. Above this level, the next resistance is at $80.00, followed by the 100-day SMA at $81.10.
Downwards, the first support for XAG/USD is at $76.00. Once cleared, the next stop would be the April 29 daily low of $70.86, ahead of $70.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD trades near the 0.5880 region as improving market sentiment supports demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
- Investors await New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales data for fresh clues on domestic economic momentum.
- US Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.3 in May, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain cautious on rate cuts.
The NZD/USD recovered and is now trading near the 0.5880 region on Friday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) loses momentum despite resilient economic data, while improving market sentiment and stronger demand for risk-sensitive assets support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Investors are closely monitoring New Zealand’s upcoming Q1 Retail Sales report, scheduled for later in the day, for additional clues about domestic consumer activity and the broader economic outlook. The data could influence expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) future policy path.
The latest S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May from 54.5, surpassing market expectations and reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Services PMI eased slightly to 50.9, highlighting softer momentum in the service sector and limiting broader gains for the Greenback.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5877. The pair is attempting to stabilize above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5855, while still trading beneath the 100-period SMA at 0.5902, which keeps the broader recovery capped for now. Immediate price action is pivoting around nearby support at 0.5875, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted into the mid-50s, hinting at mildly improving momentum rather than a decisive bullish breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at 0.5889, with the 100-period SMA at 0.5902 reinforcing a first cap ahead of a higher barrier near 0.5965. On the downside, nearby support at 0.5875 is followed by 0.5865 and 0.5856, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5855 underpinning this cluster; a sustained break beneath this band would expose deeper weakness, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative, slightly constructive stance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Here is what you need to know for Friday, May 22:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a neutral tone near the 99.20 level after stronger than expected US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts. The DXY marked a new daily high on Thursday, the eighth straight day of higher highs.
Additional support for the Greenback emerged as Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that current policy is “in a good place to respond to ongoing shocks,” while adding that long-term inflation expectations remain contained.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.25% | -0.00% | -0.05% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.02% | 0.19% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.01% | -0.08% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.20% | -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.25% | -0.19% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.32% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.01% | 0.21% | -0.10% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.32% | 0.10% | -0.00% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.12% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD falls toward the 1.1620 level as broad US Dollar (USD) strength pressures the shared currency. The Euro also remains weighed down by cautious sentiment surrounding the Eurozone growth outlook and expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue easing policy later this year.
GBP/USD is muted near the 1.3440 level as a stronger USD dominates market sentiment. Sterling also faces pressure after recent UK economic data pointed to a slowdown in growth momentum, while traders continue to assess the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts.
USD/JPY rises toward the 158.90 region, approaching the key 160.00 level that previously prompted intervention by Japanese authorities. The pair gained support after the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States and Japan agree that excessive volatility in currency markets is undesirable.
AUD/USD trades higher near the 0.7150 level as traders monitor developments in China’s economic outlook and commodity demand for additional direction.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $97.60 per barrel as geopolitical tensions linked to Iran continue to fuel supply concerns and inflation fears.
Gold trades muted near the $4,542 region, struggling to gain momentum as higher US Treasury yields and a firmer USD reduce demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, May 22:
- Germany Q1 Gross Domestic Product
- UK April Retail Sales
- Germany May IFO Survey (Business Climate, Current Assessment, Expectations)
- Canada March Retail Sales
- US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that South Korean equities, especially AI and semiconductor names, face tightening financial conditions even as the KOSPI remains a top global performer. iFlow shows heavy institutional selling and extended outflows, which could now weigh on the Korean Won. Elevated inflation expectations and higher input costs across Asia suggest ongoing pressure on EM APAC positioning.
Tech-led KOSPI strength meets heavy outflows
"Using our iFlow EM leading indicator, which aggregates daily cross-border security flows and matches them against official data, the sharp outflows from outright risk-aversion in March have extended well into April. As iFlow had signaled that flows into South Korea during the rally were increasingly unhedged, renewed outflows could generate the opposite reaction in KRW performance, even though valuations remain attractive due to healthy export trade surpluses."
"Further, short-term inflation expectations will remain elevated, feeding into yields and heavily positioned equity markets. There will also be a medium-term lift in input costs for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and most net-energy importers, which will take time to normalize and encumber traditional surpluses. The resulting weakness in currency performance from lower net purchases constitutes a form of tightening onshore, requiring rate hikes to overcome."
"We’ve already seen preemptive measures in Indonesia on Wednesday and the Philippines earlier this month. The current best-case scenario is for an end to tightening in financial conditions through a policy response to supply risks and inflation – and even then, positioning may need to adjust significantly across the heavily positioned EM markets in APAC."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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