Forex News

HSBC portrays Vietnam as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, supported by booming electronics exports and import-intensive manufacturing. However, a widening trade deficit and elevated Oil prices are eroding the current account surplus and pushing inflation above the State Bank of Vietnam’s ceiling. The bank trims its external surplus forecast and raises its 2026 inflation projection.

Fast expansion with external and price pressures

"Despite moderating from last year’s 8%, the country saw rather decent growth of 7.8% y-o-y in 1Q26. This easily made Vietnam sustain its position asone of Asia’s fast-growing economies."

"Nevertheless, a detailed look at trade data shows Vietnam’s trade resilience. Exports jumped almost 20% y-o-y YTD on average, thanks to booming electronics shipments."

"Despite booming exports, Vietnam’s imports grew even more, rising 30% y-o-y YTD. This is also understandable, to an extent, as Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is rather import-intensive."

"Since December 2025, Vietnam has consistently run a trade deficit, which widened to a record level of USD5.2bn in May. We do not think Vietnam will enter a “twin deficit” situation, as the tourism receipts and secondary income will help."

"Fast forward to today, Vietnam’s inflation rose sharply to 5.6% in May, breaching the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s 4.5% inflation ceiling for the third month running. While the significant jump in petrol prices was the main culprit, it is important not to ignore the recent hike in food prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/SGD has eased as US Dollar (USD) momentum softened on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, with the pair around 1.2960. Bullish daily momentum remains, but Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning lower from overbought, and they are monitoring whether this turnaround extends or attracts dip-buying. They flag potential distortion from quarter-end flows and outline nearby support and resistance levels.

Pair eases as USD momentum softens

"USD/SGD found reprieve overnight as USD momentum eased on core PCE data. Pair was last at 1.2960 levels."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart remains intact though RSI shows tentative signs of turning lower from near overbought conditions. We continue to monitor if the turnaround has legs or if dip-buying resurfaces."

"Quarter/month-end flows may potentially distort price action. Support at 1.2940, 1.29 (61.8% fibo retracement of Dec high to 2026 low), 1.2840/50 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo). Resistance at 1.2980 (76.4% fibo), 1.3030 levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

HSBC notes that Thailand’s 1Q26 growth beat expectations on the back of strong electronics exports and robust private investment and consumption, supported by AI-related activity and fiscal stimulus. However, non-AI sectors face Chinese competition, and consumption is expected to cool as subsidies fade. The bank upgrades 2026 growth but cuts its 2027 forecast and sees inflation easing below 2%.

Short-term boost, medium-term headwinds

"Growth in 1Q26 exceeded expectations, accelerating to 2.8% y-o-y despite the turmoil in the Middle East. Sectors and industries that are part of the data centre and AI supply chains were particularly buoyant."

"Goods exports from Thailand surged 15.5% y-o-y − the fastest since exports boomed during the COVID-19 lockdowns – with most of the outperformance seen in electronics. Thailand is a major producer of printed circuit boards and hard disk drives, two of the many types of hardware that make up the sophistication of a data centre."

"We expect the economy to ride this momentum through fiscal policy. The government has issued a THB400bn loan decree (2.1% of GDP), half of which will be used to finance consumer subsidies."

"Overall, the growth outlook has improved in 2026, but 2027 is likely to remain tough. We recently revised our 2027 growth forecast downwards to 1.7% (from 2.6%)."

"And, given the difficulty in passing higher costs on to consumers, we expect inflation to ease back to below 2% y-o-y as early as 2Q27."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

DBS Group Research’s Ma Tieying expects South Korea’s June exports to remain very strong, with year-on-year growth around 50–60% and the trade surplus widening above USD30bn. AI-related semiconductor demand and higher memory prices are seen offsetting energy imports. Headline and core CPI are forecast to rise further, and the Bank of Korea is projected to deliver two 25bps rate hikes by 4Q.

Exports strength and CPI upside

"June trade and inflation data will be the key focus ahead."

"Exports are expected to maintain strong growth of 50-60% yoy for the fourth consecutive month, based on the preliminary data for the first 20 days of June, which showed a 60.4% yoy increase."

"The trade surplus is expected to widen to above USD30bn, compared with USD27bn in the previous month."

"AI-driven demand and rising memory chip prices continue to support South Korea’s semiconductor exports, helping to offset higher energy import costs."

"On the inflation front, headline CPI is expected to accelerate further to 3.4% yoy from 3.1% in the previous month, remaining above the 3% threshold for the second consecutive month."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Silver breaks below $60.00 this week, confirming a deeper bearish technical damage.
• RSI exits oversold territory, but sellers remain firmly in control.
• Break below $55.63 exposes $54.39 and $50.00 supports.

Silver (XAG/USD) price registers gains of nearly 2% on Friday but is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 10%, as the white metal falls below the $60.00 threshold for the first time since the rally that began at the beginning of December 2025. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $59.00 after hitting a low of $55.70.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The white metal has enjoyed quite a reversal and, so far, has fallen nearly 22% in June. After reaching a record high of $121.66 per troy ounce in January, Silver has lost its luster due to several reasons.

The higher-for-longer scenario of interest rates, with major central banks set to hold or hike rates, exerts downward pressure on Silver. Although it’s posting daily gains, XAG is tilted to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are in charge, even though the index has been back above 30 after being overbought for three days.

Given the backdrop, the path of least resistance is downwards. The first support for XAG/USD would be the June 24 swing low of $55.63. Once cleared, the next stop would be the November 13, 2025, cycle high-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of the $50.00 mark.

For a bullish resumption, buyers must clear the $60.00 mark, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69.56.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/CNH’s recent run-up has stalled, with the pair around 6.8020 and daily bullish momentum intact but RSI turning lower from overbought. They caution CNH may still trade on the back foot near term if Dollar strength persists, yet view recent Renminbi (RMB) slippage as a correction, expecting weakness to remain measured unless the fixing signals broader depreciation.

Momentum stalls near resistance

"The recent run-up in USD/CNH slowed overnight, tracking moves in the USD. Pair was last at 6.8020 levels."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI shows tentative signs of turning lower from near overbought conditions. We continue to watch for signs of turnaround."

"Resistance at 6.8260 (38.2% fibo). Support at 6.80 (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 6.7750 (21 DMA)."

"We reiterate our caution that CNH may still trade on the back foot in the near term (possibly into quarter-end) if USD bullish momentum persists. We believe it may be too early to concur that the RMB appreciation trend has broken and still treat the recent slippage as a correction, after an extended run of measured appreciation."

"The slippage in CNH was due to the broader USD strength, owing to the recent hawkish Fed rhetoric, and softer risk sentiment (due to sell-off in AI and tech-linked equities). We reckon CNH weakness to remain measured unless the fix starts to validate a broader weakening bias."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Gold hits consolidates above $4,000 as Treasury yields extend decline.
• Sticky Core PCE keeps Fed rate-hike expectations alive.
• Warsh testimony, NFP and ISM data shape the next catalyst.

Gold (XAU/USD) price recovers some ground on Friday, hitting a two-day high of $4,096 as the Greenback edges lower alongside Treasury yields after investors trimmed hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed). The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,076, up 1.24%.

XAU/USD rises as traders trim Fed hawkish bets

The yellow metal has failed to gain meaningful traction over the last few days, even though the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen nearly 14 basis points since Wednesday, to 4.374%.eExpectations that prices would fall after the resolution of the US-Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent Oil prices tumbling, along with US yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six peers, is down 0.10% at 101.33, a tailwind for bullion prices.

Meanwhile, the latest US inflation report, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, rose by 3.4% YoY as expected in May, up from April’s 3.3% and well above the US central bank’s goal of 2%.

The backdrop justifies Fed hawks seeking further tightening, led by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who penciled in one rate hike in 2026, and told Bloomberg that “widespread inflation” suggests that raising rates is needed.

On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said core inflation remains too high and is trending in the wrong direction. New York Fed John Williams added that inflation is still too high, though he revealed that policy is “well-positioned.”

Recently, US data showed that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June improved from 48.9 to 49.5 on its final reading, exceeding forecasts and May’s print of 44.8. Further data showed that inflation expectations for one year were unchanged at 4.6% and for five years at 3.3%, down from 3.4% in the previous reading.

All in all, traders are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates. Prime Terminal data shows that for the September meeting, odds of a rate hike are 73%, with Fed funds futures implying 18.46 basis points of tightening.

Next week, the US economic docket will feature Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance before US Congress, the crucial June Nonfarm Payrolls, and the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June.

XAU/USD price forecast: Gold rebounds, yet faces strong resistance at $4,100

Price action shows that Gold is still downward-biased unless buyers clear key technical resistance levels, such as the March 23 daily low-turned-resistance at $4,098, ahead of the $4,100 round level.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is aiming towards its neutral level; yet it remains bearish. However, traders must be aware that the RSI formed a positive divergence, indicating that momentum is tilted upwards, while XAU/USD price action signals the opposite, registering lower lows. Therefore, further upside is expected in the short term, but some resistance levels need to be broken for it to materialise.

If XAU/USD clears $4,098, the next resistance would be the psychological $4,100, followed by key psychological levels $4,150 and $4,200. Up next lies a downslope resistance level near the $4,280- $4,300 range.

Downwards and the path of least resistance, the first XAU/USD support would be $4,050, followed by $4,000. Below this level is the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,959.