Forex News
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has quickly surrendered gains made after the stronger US CPI report, with the Dollar Index retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95 back towards 102.00. He links the move to an unwind of AI-related trades and risk-off conditions, but stresses that firm inflation data and Fed expectations still provide a supportive backdrop for the Dollar.
AI sell-off reverses CPI boost
"The US dollar has weakened overnight quickly giving back yesterday’s initial gains after the release of the stronger than expected US CPI report for September."
"After hitting a fresh year-to-date high at 102.95 yesterday, the dollar index has since fallen back towards the 102.00-level."
"The reversal lower for Us yields and US dollar appears to have been driven mainly by an unwind of AI-related trades overnight resulting in more risk-off trading conditions."
"After record capital inflows into the US equity market encouraged by investor optimism over AI (click here), the price action overnight highlights that it leaves the US dollar vulnerable to a correction lower when investor sentiment towards AI sours."
"Nevertheless, the current fundamental backdrop remains supportive for the US dollar."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to the latest Reuters poll, 54 of 63 economists have voted in favor of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in policy meeting on November 5.
The poll also showed that UK inflation forecast to average 3.6% in Q4 2026, 3.8% in Q1 2027, 3.0% in year 2027 (vs 3.3%, 3.2%, 2.5% in September poll).
On the economic front, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is seen at 1.3% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 (vs 1.1%, 1.2% in September poll).
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s emerging political breakthrough should reduce near-term pressure on the Leu and lower rating risks, but notes a difficult economic backdrop after fiscal tightening. He expects the new government to stabilise EUR/RON around 5.340, with bonds supported by consolidation efforts, though stretched valuations and limited upside constrain further rallies.
Political deal anchors leu but caps gains
"Romania appears closer to ending five months of political deadlock after the Social Democrats agreed to join premier-designate Luca Niculescu’s cabinet with 11 ministers. The Liberals and UDMR will not enter government but have pledged parliamentary support for six months, likely giving Niculescu the majority needed for approval. The cabinet is also expected to include technocrats in finance, energy and foreign affairs."
"This is Niculescu’s fourth attempt by President Nicușor Dan to install a prime minister since May, after the previous coalition collapsed and previous nominees failed. A government should reduce near-term pressure on the leu and lower the risk of Romania losing its investment-grade rating."
"However, the economic backdrop remains difficult after last year’s fiscal tightening pushed activity into prolonged stagnation. Failure to secure parliament’s backing could force an early election, which the president has sought to avoid. If approved, Niculescu’s immediate priorities will be revising the 2026 budget, preparing the 2027 draft and continuing fiscal consolidation. Overall, the political breakthrough is positive for RON, but implementation and the credibility of deficit reduction will remain key."
"As previously discussed, we do not expect RON to rally on political headlines, though the new government should help stabilise EUR/RON around 5.340 and limit further upside. Bonds have already seen a solid rally in recent days, with spreads against CEE peers narrowing to record levels. The new government and budget discussions pointing to further consolidation should sustain positive sentiment in the bond market as well, but stretched valuations limit further rallies there."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said in the European trading session on Thursday that the future of European security relies on the future of Ukraine.
Comments
Now is not the time to dial down sanctions on Ukraine.
Future of Ukraine is future of European security
Important that UK steps up support for Ukraine militarily and economically.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- EUR/GBP retreats to levels below 0.8460 from session highs near 0.8480.
- The Euro pulls back from session highs as Eurozone Industrial Production disappoints, while UK GDP beats expectations.
- Previously, the pair had drawn some support from the Pound's weakness following dovish comments from BoE's Pill.
The Euro (EUR) retreats further from session highs against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, as Eurozone Industrial Production misses expectations, while UK monthly Dros Domestic Product (GDP) figures posted a positive surprise. The EUR/GBP pair has retreated below 0.8460 from session highs near 0.8480 during the early Asian trade and is practically flat on the daily chart.
Data released by Eurostat earlier on Thursday revealed that Industrial Production contracted 0.5% in August, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, against market expectations of a flat performance. Apart from that, July's data has been revised to a 0.3% decline from previous estimates of a 0.1% contraction.
These figures add negative pressure on the Euro, which was already on the defensive, following a positive surprise in the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
UK economy grew 0.1% in August, according to monthly GDP figures released by National Statistics earlier on Thursday, beating expectations of a 0.1% contraction and following a 0.4% growth in the previous month. August's increase has been largely due to better-than-expected UK Industrial Production data, which has offset the poor performance of the construction and services sectors.
BoE’s Pill tempers rate hike expectations, limiting GBP upside
Before that, dovish comments by the Bank of England’s (BoE) chief economist, Huw Pill, downplaying market speculation about an upcoming monetary tightening cycle sent the Pound tumbling against its main peers on Wednesday and early Thursday's trading. The EUR/GBP bounced from 16-month lows at 0.8426 to session highs near 0.8480.
Pill warned on Wednesday that a potential monetary tightening move “should not give the impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increases,” dampening hopes of a sustained tightening cycle and capping immediate GBP support.
This framing suggests any future move would be more of a fine-tuning than the start of a new hiking phase, which reduces the appeal of GBP versus the Euro and Dollar on a relative policy divergence basis. For FX markets, the speech leans toward a one-and-done narrative, encouraging traders to fade aggressive GBP strength and focus instead on data-dependent, range-bound trading strategies.
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
The Industrial Production index, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price-adjusted output of industry. It is a widely-followed indicator to gauge the strength in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Oct 15, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.5%
Consensus: 0%
Previous: -0.1%
Source: Eurostat
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).
Read more.Last release: Thu Oct 15, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -1.1%
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: 0%
Source: Eurostat
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $56.71 per troy ounce, up 1.94% from the $55.64 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 20.21% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 56.71 |
1 Gram | 1.82 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 73.31 on Thursday, down from 73.78 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank explains that Norges Bank’s September decision to bring forward a rate hike was driven by persistent inflation above its 2% target. With headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, the bank now signals policy will stay elevated for longer and another hike cannot be ruled out, a stance she sees as subtly positive for the Norwegian Krone.
Persistent inflation keeps rates elevated
"It was not a close call for Norges Bank at the end of September to bring forward the policy rate hike rather than wait until December. The reasoning focused on persistently high inflation, since all other factors - including the strong krone, which has a dampening effect on inflation, and businesses’ expectations for economic activity over the next six months - would have made it possible to wait until the end of the year."
"In fact, inflation stands at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.0% compared to the previous year (September) - with an inflation target of 2% that Norges Bank has failed to meet since the pandemic."
"In this regard, Norges Bank’s decision to bring forward the rate hike and to signal that the policy rate will now remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated is entirely understandable. Depending on the data in the coming weeks and months, another rate hike cannot be ruled out, though it is not Norges Bank’s main scenario."
"The “high for longer” stance, along with the signal that rates could be raised again if necessary, is subtly positive for the NOK. In general, however, the currency remains primarily driven by oil and gas prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi rules out reflationary policy under the Takaichi administration.
- Kiuchi stresses that monetary policy decisions should be left to the Bank of Japan.
- The minister warns against excessive short-term currency volatility but declines to comment on exchange rates.
Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Thursday that the Takaichi administration is not pursuing a reflationary policy, stressing that proactive fiscal measures should not lead to unnecessary public spending.
Regarding monetary policy, Kiuchi reaffirmed the independence of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), noting that specific policy decisions should be left to the central bank as it seeks to achieve its 2% inflation target.
On foreign exchange, the minister declined to comment on specific currency movements but emphasized that excessive short-term volatility should be avoided, while acknowledging that exchange rates are determined by various market factors.
Key takeaways
Proactive fiscal policy not meant to expand unnecessary expenditures.
Reflationary policy is not what's needed now.
If someone is calling for reflationary policy, that's different from our policy.
Takaichi administration is not pursuing reflationary policy.
Won't comment on long-term interest rates, but the government understands boj is conducting monetary policy to achieve 2% target.
Specific monetary policy should be left to boj.
Won't comment on forex.
Generally speaking, forex is determined in markets by various factors.
Should avoid short-term wild swings in forex.
Market reaction
The market shows little reaction to Kiuchi's remarks, with USD/JPY down 0.30% on Thursday, trading around 157.85 at the time of writing.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.57% | -0.53% | -0.32% | -0.27% | 0.64% | -0.34% | -0.63% | |
| EUR | 0.57% | 0.03% | 0.25% | 0.27% | 1.24% | 0.21% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | -0.03% | 0.21% | 0.24% | 1.17% | 0.18% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.32% | -0.25% | -0.21% | 0.02% | 0.97% | -0.06% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.27% | -0.24% | -0.02% | 0.92% | -0.07% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | -0.64% | -1.24% | -1.17% | -0.97% | -0.92% | -0.98% | -1.27% | |
| NZD | 0.34% | -0.21% | -0.18% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.98% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.63% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.33% | 0.35% | 1.27% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee trades sharply higher against the US Dollar after the US CPI data release.
- Hotter-than-projected US CPI data fails to lift hawkish Fed expectations.
- India’s retail and wholesale Inflation remain stronger in September.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 94.95 as the US Dollar underperforms and United States (US) Treasury Yields face intense selling pressure in the aftermath of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September released on Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.54% | -0.40% | -0.25% | -0.19% | 0.25% | -0.09% | -0.60% | |
| EUR | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.32% | 0.82% | 0.33% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.40% | -0.13% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.66% | 0.30% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.25% | -0.13% | 0.05% | 0.53% | 0.06% | -0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.32% | -0.19% | -0.05% | 0.45% | 0.00% | -0.41% | |
| AUD | -0.25% | -0.82% | -0.66% | -0.53% | -0.45% | -0.46% | -0.87% | |
| INR | 0.09% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.46% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.60% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.41% | 0.87% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.6% lower to near 101.90 after retreating from its 18-month high of 102.95 posted on Wednesday. The 10-year US Treasury Yields have fallen to near 5.10%.
The initial reaction from the US Dollar and US bond yields was strongly positive; however, they retreated swiftly as the hot US CPI report failed to lift hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
How was the US CPI data?
The US CPI report showed that the headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) in September from 3.4% in August, while it was expected to come in at 3.6%. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – arrived at 2.6% YoY, higher than 2.5% estimates and the previous reading of 2.4%.
On a monthly basis, the headline CPI grew 0.6%, as expected, faster than the prior release of 0.4%. The core figure rose steadily by 0.3%, beating 0.2% estimates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the influence of hotter-than-projected US CPI report remains limited on Fed’s interest rate prospects. The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this month have increased marginally to 27% from 22% seen before the data release. However, traders remain confident that the Fed will deliver an interest rate hike in the December meeting.
Indian Rupee was already outperforming on RBI’s fresh measures
The Indian currency was already outperforming this week, following forceful measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb the US Dollar’s demand.
Analysts at Commerzbank said in a note that the RBI has rolled out several targeted steps, including "a special USD facility for state-run oil marketing companies and a reduction in the threshold for INR derivatives without an underlying asset to USD5mn from USD100mn."
The bank adds that the RBI has also "introduced a new Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (FERR), requiring 20% of the notional value of each FX derivative transaction above USD2mn to be held with the central bank."
Surging India’s inflation supports more RBI interest rate hikes
This week, India’s CPI data for September on both retail and the wholesale levels has come in stronger, building a case for another interest rate hike by the RBI this year. Last week, the RBI hiked its key Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50% and shifted its stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening”.
On Monday, India’s retail CPI data arrived at 5.54%, higher than 5.4% expectations and the August reading of 4.82%, but remains within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%-6%. The WPI Inflation data on Wednesday came in at 11.39%, significantly higher than the prior release of 9.92%.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.97, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.85. The EMA overhead suggests rallies remain vulnerable, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.9 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but starting to lose some intensity.
On the topside, initial resistance is clearly defined by the 20-period EMA at 95.85, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure. On the downside, the September low near 94.30 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- Euro clings to recovery move near 1.1220 against the US Dollar as the latter underperforms.
- The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the October meeting.
- Investors keenly await Fed Chair Warsh' speech on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) holds onto its recovery move to near 1.1220 against the US Dollar (USD) in the European trade on Thursday. The major currency pair rebounded at the expense of the US Dollar.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.5% to near 102.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.52% | -0.50% | -0.32% | -0.24% | 0.61% | -0.31% | -0.61% | |
| EUR | 0.52% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.25% | 1.16% | 0.19% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 1.11% | 0.17% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.32% | -0.19% | -0.19% | 0.04% | 0.93% | -0.03% | -0.31% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.04% | 0.86% | -0.05% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | -0.61% | -1.16% | -1.11% | -0.93% | -0.86% | -0.92% | -1.22% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | -0.19% | -0.17% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.92% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.61% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.31% | 0.35% | 1.22% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar faces selling pressure as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations for the October meeting remains lower even after the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September showing the price pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace.
What’s next for Fed expectations for October?
Analysts at OCBC highlight that “attention now turns to Kevin Warsh’s fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on 16 October,” noting that the event is “confirmed on the IMF calendar, while the Fed lists the discussion ahead of its 27-28 October FOMC meeting.” With markets “now assigning meaningful odds to an October hike,” OCBC expects investors to closely monitor the session, as “investors will scrutinise Warsh for any hint that the Fed is leaning toward moving sooner rather than waiting until December.”
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The headline producer inflation data is seen at 5.3% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than 5.4% in August. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also expected to come in lower at 4.4% from the previous reading of 4.6%.
On the Euro front, the Industrial Production data for August has come in weaker-than-expected. The industrial sector activity declined at a faster pace of 0.5% in August. The data was expected to remain flat after contracting 0.3% in July, revised lower from -0.1%.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1215, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1290. The failed attempt to reclaim this short-term trend proxy keeps the pair anchored in a corrective phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 suggests momentum is recovering from oversold territory but not yet strong enough to challenge the prevailing downside structure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.1290, which acts as the first hurdle for any rebound and a key level that bulls would need to reclaim to ease selling pressure. As long as EUR/USD trades below this barrier, rallies are likely to be shallow, and the broader focus would stay on whether price can hold current levels rather than build toward a more sustained recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Fed's Chair Warsh speech
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 16, 2026 03:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
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