Forex News
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that the recent Oil price shock is reinforcing upside inflation risks in the United States and complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. With PCE inflation expected to remain near 3%, markets have sharply reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, which is seen as providing near-term support for the US Dollar.
Fed cuts repriced with sticky inflation
"On the US macro front, PCE inflation due later today is expected to show inflation remaining sticky, still well above the Fed’s target and hovering around the 3% mark."
"The oil price shock adds to upside inflation risks and complicates the Fed’s policy outlook."
"Our estimates suggest that every USD10/bbl increase in oil prices could add roughly 0.2pp to US inflation."
"At around USD100/bbl oil, headline inflation could rise by close to 0.8ppt, while in a USD150/bbl scenario, inflation risks pushing decisively above 4%."
"Reflecting these risks, markets have sharply pared back expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, with easing expectations fading further as the US Iran conflict persists."
"At the same time, a potential delay in Fed easing in response to the oil shock is likely to provide near term support for the US dollar."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and snaps a two-day losing streak.
- Retreating US bond yields undermine the USD and support the commodity amid safe-haven flows.
- Inflation fears temper Fed rate cut bets and favor the USD bulls, which might cap the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims a part of its modest intraday gains and slides back below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session on Friday. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. This assists the safe-haven commodity to attract dip-buyers near the lower boundary of the trading range held over the past two weeks or so and recover a part of its losses recorded over the past two days. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned during his first public statement that all US military bases in the region should be immediately closed or will be attacked. Khamenei further added that attacks against US bases in the region would continue, even though Iran believes in goodwill with its neighbors.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that stopping the evil empire in Iran was of greater importance to him than Oil prices. In fact, Crude Oil prices have been climbing since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran. Adding to this, supply disruption fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have been fueling concerns about a surge in inflation, which has forced investors to rapidly scale back bets on interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which continue to drive flows towards the US Dollar (USD) and cap the non-yielding Gold ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
The crucial inflation data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's policy outlook amid growing worries about a war-driven spike in consumer prices. This, in turn, would drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. The focus, however, remains on geopolitical developments. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair seems poised to register losses for the second straight week. Moreover, the aforementioned mixed fundamentals warrant caution before placing aggressive directional bets and positioning for any further appreciating move.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bears have the upper hand, break below 200-EMA on H4 awaited
The commodity once again rebounds from the vicinity of the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. This keeps the broader uptrend structure intact despite recent pullbacks and warrants caution for the XAU/USD bears.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below its signal line and below the zero mark, yet the latest contraction in negative readings hints at fading bearish momentum rather than fresh downside extension. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 stays below the 50 midline but off oversold territory, consistent with a corrective phase within an underlying upward bias rather than a completed top.
Immediate support emerges around $5,090, where recent intraday lows align just above the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart near $5,039, forming a key demand band; a break below this zone would expose deeper support toward $5,000. On the upside, initial resistance appears at the recent swing high near $5,160, with a sustained break opening the way toward the $5,200 region and then the late-stage peak near $5,230.
A recovery through $5,160–$5,200 would likely pull the MACD back toward the zero line and push the RSI closer to 50, reinforcing the bullish tilt, while failure to defend the $5,090–$5,039 support cluster would shift the focus to a more neutral or even bearish 4-hour outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.63% | 1.24% | 2.10% | -0.23% | 0.79% | 2.82% | 1.71% | |
| EUR | -2.63% | -1.35% | -0.53% | -2.79% | -1.79% | 0.18% | -0.90% | |
| GBP | -1.24% | 1.35% | 0.87% | -1.46% | -0.44% | 1.55% | 0.46% | |
| JPY | -2.10% | 0.53% | -0.87% | -2.28% | -1.28% | 0.69% | -0.38% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | 2.79% | 1.46% | 2.28% | 1.02% | 3.04% | 1.95% | |
| AUD | -0.79% | 1.79% | 0.44% | 1.28% | -1.02% | 2.01% | 0.91% | |
| NZD | -2.82% | -0.18% | -1.55% | -0.69% | -3.04% | -2.01% | -1.08% | |
| CHF | -1.71% | 0.90% | -0.46% | 0.38% | -1.95% | -0.91% | 1.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver price attracts some sellers to around $83.60 in Friday’s early European session.
- Middle East geopolitical tensions provide some support to the Silver price.
- Persistent inflationary pressures have led markets to push back expectations for Fed rate cuts from July to September.
Silver price (XAG/USD) declines to around $83.60 during the early European trading hours on Friday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for January will be the highlight later on Friday.
Geopolitical escalation continues in the Middle East, which could boost a safe-haven asset such as the white metal. US President Donald Trump said that preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and threatening the Middle East is “of far greater interest and importance to me” than the cost of oil.
Meanwhile, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. He added that Tehran would look to open other fronts in the war if the US and Israel persist with their attacks.
Nonetheless, military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran in late February have created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Surging crude oil prices have increased inflation risks, leading markets to push back expectations for US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts from July to September. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EUR/USD pair resumes the downside, breaking below 1.1500 in the early European hours on Friday to trade at levels last seen in November 2025, as the US Dollar (USD) finds fresh haven demand in a risk-averse environment.
The Iran war has no end in sight, with tensions escalating on a daily basis. The latest on the matter shows the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by Iranian forces, while the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that the Strait should remain closed as a tool to pressure the enemy, adding Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs. He also said that attacks will "inevitably" continue.
Concerns about interrupted energy supplies resulted in Brent Oil trading above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surpassed the $90 mark
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Indian Rupee depreciates despite possible intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
- INR declines as energy prices stay volatile and foreign investors continue pulling funds from local stocks.
- The US Dollar remains stronger amid the fading likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
USD/INR has recovered its daily losses and is trading near an all-time high of 92.90 in the previous session. However, the pair faced challenges as the Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely selling US Dollars (USD) to support the domestic currency amid rising Oil price concerns, traders told Reuters.
Traders expect the INR to keep drifting lower as energy prices stay volatile and foreign investors continue pulling money from local stocks. Oil prices remain the key factor shaping sentiment across markets, including FX, bonds, and equities.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower after surging more than 9% in the previous session, trading near $94.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices declined after Chris Bowen, Australia’s Energy Minister, said the country would release up to 762 million litres of fuel from reserves after easing stockholding rules to address supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
Oil prices may continue to rise due to shipping disruptions through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public remarks since taking office that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should remain a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Khamenei also warned that all US military bases in the region should be closed immediately or face potential attacks.
The USD/INR pair also strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm as futures markets and economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting, with the benchmark federal funds rate currently at 3.50%–3.75%.
Meanwhile, traders await another key US inflation release. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is due later in the day, though it will not reflect the impact of the Iran war. Markets will also monitor the fourth-quarter US GDP growth and March consumer confidence.
US inflation data suggested price pressures remain relatively contained, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy steady in the near term. Analysts also noted that the latest inflation figures do not yet fully capture the recent surge in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions.
The February US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), largely in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR tests channel’s upper boundary, all-time highs near 93.00
USD/INR trades around 92.70 at the time of writing on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair tests the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which track an established advance from the 90.60 area. Momentum remains firm with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 within overbought territory.
The USD/INR pair tests the ascending channel’s upper boundary at the all-time high of 92.90, reached on March 12. On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 92.35. A break below this level would weaken the short-term momentum and expose the 50-day EMA at 91.24, followed by the channel’s lower boundary near 91.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.51% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.40% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 0.38% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.44% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.43% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.15% | -0.22% | -0.20% | 0.23% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.51% | -0.40% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.43% | -0.23% | -0.43% | |
| INR | -0.18% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
Commerzbank analysts highlight that Brent crude Oil has surged above USD100 as Middle East conflict triggers major supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency estimates an unprecedented hit to global Oil supply and exports, while the US Energy Information Administration now sees retail gasoline prices only returning below pre-conflict levels by late 2027, reinforcing concerns about prolonged supply-led inflation.
War-driven disruption underpins Oil rally
"The main theme overnight was risk-off, as oil prices continued to rise amid signs of worsening supply disruptions. Brent crude oil closed above USD100 for the first time since August 2022."
"President Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, both struck defiant tones, which caused a further spike in oil prices. President Trump wrote in a social media post that stopping Iran from having nuclear weapons is “of far greater interest and importance to me, as President”."
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the “the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger swath of exports."
"The IEA estimates that the war will slash global oil supply by 8 million barrels a day this month, or almost 250 million barrels in total."
"In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration raised its fuel price forecast. It now expects retail gas prices to only fall below the pre-conflict level of USD2.94 per gallon by the end of 2027, sparking fears of supply-led inflationary pressures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Canadian Unemployment Rate is forecast at 6.6% in February.
- Odds for a Bank of Canada rate hike slowly rise amid the Iran war.
- USD/CAD is trapped between opposed forces, and sellers are winning.
Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and market participants expect a modest uptick in job creation in February, with the Employment Change foreseen at 10K following the -24.8K in the previous month. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 6.6%, following the 6.5% posted in January.
Employment data gains relevance ahead of the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for next Monday, and the Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy announcement a couple of days later.
The BoC left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for a second consecutive time at its final meeting of 2025, with investors betting that Canadian policymakers would keep rates on hold throughout 2026. That, however, was prior to the Iran war.
The ongoing Middle East crisis has changed the monetary policy perspective for most central banks, including the BoC. After anticipating a modest hike by the end of 2026, market players shifted to betting on more aggressive tightening to keep inflation under control.
And while the Persian Gulf war is taking its toll mostly on energy prices and hence on inflation, employment levels also affect the BoC decision.
What can we expect from the next Canadian Unemployment Rate print?
Market players project a slight rise in Canada’s Unemployment Rate to 6.6% last month, up from 6.5% in January. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add a few jobs in February, reversing the previous month’s slump. The Participation Rate was confirmed at 65% in January.
The employment report usually has a large impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), particularly if the outcome diverges from expectations. The impact tends to be larger when data is released ahead of the BoC decision.
That may not be the case this time, as the market focus remains on the Iran war. Skyrocketing Oil prices have lent unexpected support to the CAD during periods of risk aversion, with the commodity-linked currency refusing to yield to demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
Another consequence of the war is that market players are changing their central banks’ bets toward interest rate hikes amid mounting fears that higher energy prices will push inflation up. Inflation-related concerns are largely outweighing the labor market situation in shaping central banks’ decisions.
When is the Canada Unemployment Rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
The Canadian monthly employment report is due on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Generally speaking, a stronger-than-anticipated outcome should provide support to the CAD, while dismal readings should weigh on the local currency. A reading that aligns with expectations usually goes unnoticed.
Ahead of the release, the USD/CAD pair trades below the 1.3600 mark, led by opposing forces: on the one hand, the USD is stronger across the FX board due to heightened demand for safety. On the other hand, the CAD benefits from stronger oil prices.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “From a technical point of view, USD/CAD is bearish. The pair recently bottomed in 1.3525, and trades a handful of pips above the level. The daily chart shows it managed to post modest advances in the last couple of days, but selling interest is firm around 1.3600, as the pair has been unable to advance beyond it throughout the week. The same chart shows a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) hovers around 1.3640, the next resistance level should prompt sellers to give up at around 1.3600.”
Bednarik adds: “The downside seems limited by the 1.3520 area, with a clear break below it exposing the yearly low at 1.3481. An extension below the latter should open the door for a steeper decline, with market participants aiming to test the 1.3400 mark.”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by Statistics Canada, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force as a percentage. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market and a weakening of the Canadian economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Mar 13, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 6.6%
Previous: 6.5%
Source: Statistics Canada
- EUR/JPY could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 183.43.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 50, signaling neutral momentum.
- Primary support appears at the 50-day EMA of 183.15.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 183.30 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the spot testing the upper boundary of a descending triangle, suggesting potential resistance and a possible downside continuation.
The near-term bias is neutral with a mild bullish tilt as price holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the nine-day EMA flattens just above spot, signalling a lack of trend but preserving an upside edge.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, confirming balanced momentum after the recent pullback from last week’s highs, with neither buyers nor sellers in clear control.
The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.43, followed by the upper boundary of the descending triangle around 183.70. Further advances above the triangle would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day EMA of 183.15. A break below this level would weaken the medium-term price momentum and expose the lower boundary of a descending triangle around 181.80, followed by the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12. A break below the latter would expose the four-month low at 175.70, recorded on November 5.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.43% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.36% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.35% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.39% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.13% | 0.25% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.43% | -0.36% | -0.35% | -0.39% | -0.37% | -0.25% | -0.32% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.06% | 0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD weakens to near 0.7060 in Friday’s early European session.
- The RBA is likely to raise the OCR to 4.10% next week, a Reuters poll showed.
- The positive outlook of the pair remains intact above the key 100-day EMA.
- The first downside target to watch is 0.7020; the immediate resistance level emerges at 0.7120.
The AUD/USD pair loses traction to around 0.7060 during the early European session on Friday. The pair retreats from near three-year highs as rising tensions in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the US Dollar (USD).
US President Donald Trump said that preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and threatening the Middle East is “of far greater interest and importance to me” than the cost of oil. Meanwhile, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. He added that Tehran would look to open other fronts in the war if the US and Israel persist with their attacks.
On the other hand, aggressive bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates next week might help limit the Aussie’s losses. A Reuters poll showed on Friday that 23 of 30 economists expect the Australian central bank to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% on March 17, while seven economists projected no change. The forecast marks a shift from February’s poll, which anticipated rates to remain at 3.85%. The median forecast now sees the cash rate reaching 4.35% by the end of 2026.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/USD is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average and consolidates just under the recent highs. Daily closes have been clustering around the upper half of the Bollinger Bands while the bands have flattened, indicating sustained but moderating upside momentum rather than a blow-off top. The RSI has cooled from overbought readings above 70 toward the mid-50s, showing that bullish pressure persists but with reduced upside acceleration after the early-month surge.
Immediate support emerges at 0.7020, the recent consolidation floor, followed by 0.6950, which aligns with the lower half of the current Bollinger envelope and recent swing lows. A deeper pullback would expose more important support at 0.6900 ahead of the 100-day EMA zone around 0.6840. On the upside, initial resistance sits at 0.7120, the recent closing high, followed by 0.7150 and then 0.7200, where prior upper Bollinger Band extremes suggest stretched conditions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/CHF attracts buyers for the fourth straight day amid a broadly firmer US Dollar.
- Inflation concerns dim hopes for more Fed rate cuts in 2026 and underpin the buck.
- Rising geopolitical tensions fail to lift the safe-haven CHF amid SNB intervention fears.
The USD/CHF pair prolongs its uptrend for the fourth straight day and climbs to the 0.7870 region, back closer to the monthly peak during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register gains for the second consecutive week as traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for a fresh impetus.
The crucial US data would influence market expectations about the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook amid expectations that a war-driven surge in Oil prices will rekindle inflation and force the central bank to delay cutting rates. In fact, the black liquid remains close to the $100 psychological mark as a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel supply disruption fears.
In fact, market expectations have shifted toward only one 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cut in 2026, most likely in December. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and assists the US Dollar (USD) to attract some follow-through buying. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, approaches the three-month high, touched on Monday, and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on investors' sentiment, which is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets. The anti-risk flow, however, does little to benefit the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has ramped up its readiness to intervene in FX markets. This, in turn, favors the USD/CHF bulls and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.60% | 1.19% | 2.14% | -0.26% | 0.67% | 2.65% | 1.67% | |
| EUR | -2.60% | -1.37% | -0.44% | -2.78% | -1.88% | 0.05% | -0.91% | |
| GBP | -1.19% | 1.37% | 0.98% | -1.43% | -0.51% | 1.44% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -2.14% | 0.44% | -0.98% | -2.35% | -1.44% | 0.48% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | 2.78% | 1.43% | 2.35% | 0.93% | 2.90% | 1.93% | |
| AUD | -0.67% | 1.88% | 0.51% | 1.44% | -0.93% | 1.96% | 0.98% | |
| NZD | -2.65% | -0.05% | -1.44% | -0.48% | -2.90% | -1.96% | -0.96% | |
| CHF | -1.67% | 0.91% | -0.47% | 0.47% | -1.93% | -0.98% | 0.96% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
