Forex News
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY remains stuck in a tight range, with intraday expectations for the Dollar to trade between 157.45 and 158.20. Their 1–3 week outlook keeps USD/JPY confined between 157.00 and 158.60, while the 1–3 month view points to further weakness, though a retest of the January low at 152.08 is uncertain.
Dollar seen confined in tight ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated yesterday that USD “could trade between 157.60 and 158.20.” USD then traded within a relatively narrow range of 157.43 and 157.99. The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 157.45 and 158.20."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding the same view since last Wednesday (28 Oct, spot at 157.85), when we highlighted that USD “has likely entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we expect it to trade between 157.00 and 158.60.” We continue to hold the same view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $48.77 per troy ounce, down 3.39% from the $50.48 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 31.39% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 48.77 |
1 Gram | 1.57 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 79.99 on Tuesday, up from 78.16 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Rising crude oil prices support the Canadian Dollar, putting pressure on EUR/CAD.
- Geopolitical developments and ongoing US-Iran talks keep gains in global oil prices constrained.
- Traders await Eurozone October HICP data to gauge future European Central Bank monetary policy.
EUR/CAD depreciates after registering gains the previous day, trading around 1.5620 during European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is facing challenges as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives strong support from rising crude oil prices. As the largest supplier of crude oil to the United States, Canada's economy and currency remain heavily tied to performance in the global energy markets.
However, potential gains in oil prices stay constrained by ongoing geopolitical developments. Crude prices could face further headwinds as Iran confirmed that indirect discussions with the United States aimed at resolving their eight-month conflict are still underway. These talks follow several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators, which yielded revised proposals without achieving a breakthrough.
Traders are awaiting the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, scheduled for release on Wednesday. This data is expected to significantly influence expectations around the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Market forecasts expect headline HICP growth to accelerate slightly to 3.9% year-on-year, up from 3.8% in September. Meanwhile, core HICP, which excludes volatile components such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is projected to hold steady at 2.5% year-on-year.
Euro risk premium persists as French spreads stay elevated
Analysts at ING highlight that French government bond spreads “didn’t benefit from lower oil prices yesterday,” suggesting that “levels above 150bp are the new normal now.” They argue that, against this backdrop, “it therefore remains hard for the Euro to shake out the lingering risk premium,” with “much more tangible progress” on the energy front still required “for oil to trade sustainably lower from here.”
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.19% | 0.38% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.22% | 0.35% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.41% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.30% | 0.27% | -0.09% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.57% | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.27% | -0.57% | -0.35% | -0.46% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.09% | -0.20% | 0.35% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.10% | 0.46% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee gains further against the US Dollar due to lower oil prices.
- The risk premium on oil prices erodes due to hopes for US-Iran diplomacy resolution.
- US midterm elections are the next key trigger for global markets.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the third trading day on Tuesday. As of writing, the USD/INR pair is down 0.15% to near 94.75.
The Indian currency strengthens as oil prices continue to face selling pressure on the back of improved hopes for United States (US)-Iran diplomatic resolution.
At press time, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is up 1.65% to near Rs. 9,222, but is down almost 7.5% from its recent multi-month high of Rs. 9,972.
Oil risk premium eases as diplomacy headlines reshape market tone
According to TD Securities, recent headlines suggesting that US President Donald Trump is willing to give diplomacy more time, and "signaling attacks may not be imminent immediately before/after the midterms," have already seen "a portion of the geopolitical risk premium priced out of crude oil and petroleum products." The strategists add that "with flows elevated, and a large portion of recent upside attributed to a risk premium, these headlines will have an increasingly large impact on the market," as positioning and sentiment adjust to the evolving geopolitical narrative.
However, TD Securities has cautioned that “headlines alone are unlikely to shed the whole risk premium.” TD Securities adds that “so long as there is no concrete conclusion to the war, and tanker and Houthi attacks remain prevalent, we do not anticipate a complete erosion of the risk premium via diplomacy headlines alone,” underscoring that persistent geopolitical threats continue to underpin pricing.
Lower oil prices bode well for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
Investors brace for US midterm elections
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) note that “the US midterm elections will be held on Tuesday,” with “Democrats widely expected to win the House of Representatives.” They add that “Senate control is much closer, but the tide favors the Democratic Party,” as “Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority in the Senate” — a target that is “within reach as Republicans are defending six of the seven toss-up seats.”
BBH highlights that betting markets “favor a Democratic sweep,” with Polymarket and Kalshi “putting the odds around 70%.” In their view, that “points to a relatively muted initial market reaction if Democrats win both chambers,” whereas “a Republican Senate hold would be the bigger surprise and could spark more market volatility.”
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMA
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.75, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.20. The pair’s position under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 37.64 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at prevailing downside pressure rather than an oversold extreme.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 95.21, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to soften the current bearish bias. On the downside, the June 25 low at 94.15 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Francesco Pesole at ING notes EUR/USD is trying to establish support around 1.1200 after a strong start to the week. A Democratic sweep could offer some help, but he does not foresee major sentiment changes. Persistent French spread premia and elevated energy prices keep a risk premium embedded in the Euro, while recent European Central Bank (ECB) commentary remains hawkish and points to at least one more rate hike.
Hawkish ECB and lingering risk premium
"EUR/USD is looking to establish support at 1.1200 after a good start to the week. A Democratic sweep at the midterms today could help, but we don’t expect radical mood changes in the pair."
"French spreads didn’t benefit from lower oil prices yesterday, signalling levels above 150bp are the new normal now. It therefore remains hard for the euro to shake out the lingering risk premium, and much more tangible progress is needed for oil to trade sustainably lower from here."
"In the eurozone, focus will be on a number of ECB speakers today. Since last week’s meeting, we’ve heard some hawkish comments, endorsing market expectations that at least another hike is needed."
"Elevated energy prices suggest there is little room for a clear dovish current to emerge yet."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Poland’s deepening institutional conflict, now involving the Constitutional Tribunal, is weighing on the Polish Zloty. With riot police deployed and rival claims to judicial leadership, he warns that political tensions, alongside deteriorating fiscal and rating backdrops, justify a particularly bearish stance on PLN versus other Central European currencies.
Institutional conflict and currency underperformance
"PM Donald Tusk had to deploy riot police to secure the court on Friday after coalition-backed justice Anna Korwin-Piotrowska moved to suspend PiS-aligned Tribunal head Bogdan Swieczkowski and his deputy. PiS leaders and allied groups protested outside the court, while President Karol Nawrocki abandoned an overseas trip and returned to join the confrontation."
"Whatever the merits of the arguments, using competing institutional claims and deploying riot police creates the appearance of a constitutional crisis one year before the general election – this is also precisely the kind of political stand-off and tensions we have been warning about, leading us to be the most bearish on the Polish zloty relative to other CE3 currencies."
"The zloty extended its underperformance of CEE peers following the weekend protests, with EUR/PLN briefly reaching 4.4372. This is no longer just about inflation data or NBP’s dovish stance – political conflict is spreading across key institutions just as the fiscal and rating backdrop is deteriorating."
"We think that the risk of a sharper zloty move may be mounting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD may find initial support at the falling wedge bottom around 1.3900.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 37, suggesting fading downside momentum.
- The immediate barrier lies at the falling wedge top around 1.3990.
USD/CAD loses ground after registering modest gains the previous day, trading around 1.3970 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair price is close to the upper resistance line of a falling wedge pattern, signaling that the market is reaching a critical inflection point where a bullish breakout may be imminent. However, the pair pulled back from the wedge top, showing that sellers are still defending the upper boundary.
The USD/CAD pair is keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair has retreated from recent highs and now trades under these short- and medium-term trend benchmarks, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 suggests fading downside momentum but still leans toward weak pressure rather than a sustained recovery.
On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may fall toward initial support at the lower boundary of the falling wedge around 1.3900. A break below the wedge could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the five-month low of 1.3732, recorded on May 21, followed by 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.
The USD/CAD pair may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the falling wedge around 1.3990, followed by the nine- and 50-day EMAs at 1.4010 and 1.4051, respectively. A successful break above this confluence resistance zone would cause the bullish reversal and support the pair to approach a nearly 18-month high of 1.4299, recorded on October 14.
BoC hike seen as pre-emptive as Macklem’s tone skews hawkish
Analysts at Standard Chartered note that the Bank of Canada (BoC) “raised the policy rate by 25bps to 2.5% at its 28 October meeting; we had expected a pause.” They highlight that, while “consensus leaned towards a hike,” many observers had judged “such a move unnecessary amid subdued core inflation and soft growth.” In their view, the decision underlines the BoC’s “strong preference to hike pre-emptively in response to inflation risks.”
Scotiabank points to subsequent remarks from Governor Tiff Macklem as reinforcing that message. According to the bank, “comments from BoC Gov. Macklem reported by Bloomberg late Wednesday offered a relatively hawkish read, relative to a statement and press conference that had been somewhat more restrained,” suggesting the governor’s tone may have tilted market perceptions of the policy move further in a hawkish direction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.16% | 0.39% | 0.02% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.04% | -0.19% | 0.36% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.43% | 0.03% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.22% | 0.32% | -0.05% | -0.15% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.55% | 0.17% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.39% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.32% | -0.55% | -0.37% | -0.48% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.05% | -0.17% | 0.37% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.15% | -0.06% | 0.48% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/JPY retains a positive tone on Tuesday amid the prevailing bullish tone in GBP.
- Intervention risks keep JPY bears on the sidelines, capping gains for spot prices.
- Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the crucial BoE policy decision on Thursday.
The GBP/JPY cross trades near a two-month high during the early European session on Tuesday, with bulls awaiting sustained strength and acceptance above the 212.00 mark before positioning for further gains.
The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative outperformance amid easing fiscal concerns following the recent UK budget updates. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates on Thursday turns out to be another factor supporting the GBP. In contrast, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure amid the uncertainty over the likely timing of the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This leaves a wide interest rate gap between the UK and Japan, acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Pound support underpinned as UK Autumn Budget leaves BoE expectations intact
Strategists at DBS highlight the relative resilience of the Pound, noting that the October 28 UK Autumn Budget "did not unsettle the gilt market and market pricing for an interest rate hike at the November 5 Bank of England meeting." Against this backdrop, DBS expects a firmer hawkish tilt from policymakers, arguing that, following the "6-3 vote supporting the September 17 pause, the vote split will likely be 7-2 this Thursday, with more MPC members acknowledging growing inflation risks." This anticipated shift in the BoE’s voting dynamics is seen as reinforcing GBP’s appeal versus the Euro.
Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. In fact, Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the joint FX statement with the US persists and that the government is prepared to act to curb excessive or disorderly JPY weakness. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bets and cap the GBP/JPY cross as the market focus remains glued to the key central bank event – the highly anticipated BoE monetary policy decision on Thursday.
Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bulls, suggesting that any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. Meanwhile, strong follow-through buying is needed to reaffirm the near-term positive outlook and pave the way for an extension of the GBP/JPY pair's recent move higher witnessed over the past month or so.
Pound Sterling Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.53% | 0.28% | -0.36% | 0.64% | 1.23% | -1.29% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | -0.38% | 0.46% | -0.19% | 0.84% | 1.44% | -1.10% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | 0.38% | 0.83% | 0.22% | 1.21% | 1.82% | -0.73% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | -0.46% | -0.83% | -0.63% | 0.40% | 0.97% | -1.46% | |
| CAD | 0.36% | 0.19% | -0.22% | 0.63% | 0.99% | 1.61% | -0.95% | |
| AUD | -0.64% | -0.84% | -1.21% | -0.40% | -0.99% | 0.61% | -1.93% | |
| NZD | -1.23% | -1.44% | -1.82% | -0.97% | -1.61% | -0.61% | -2.49% | |
| CHF | 1.29% | 1.10% | 0.73% | 1.46% | 0.95% | 1.93% | 2.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold drifts lower as Fed hike bets and rebounding US bond yields lend some support to the USD.
- Hope for Iran diplomacy caps the USD as traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the US elections.
- Tuesday’s release of the US JOLTS Job Openings could also provide some impetus to the bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) slides below the $3,900 mark during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, eyeing its lowest level since October 2025, set last week amid expectations of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Data released on Monday showed that US manufacturing sector business activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI came in higher than consensus estimates and rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month. This reaffirmed hawkish Fed bets, which, along with a modest bounce in US bond yields, weigh heavily on the non-yielding yellow metal.
The US Dollar (USD), however, struggles to lure buyers as traders are demonstrating a widespread hesitancy ahead of US midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. Prediction markets strongly favor Democrats winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Meanwhile, a Republican sweep would be a larger market surprise, which could lift US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD). Moreover, hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war might further hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran wants to make a deal to end the war and that such an agreement could happen. Moreover, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that consultations through mediators were very intensive.
However, several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators failed to make a breakthrough despite Tehran's revised proposals to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz for two days, provided that the US fulfills a set of conditions. Moreover, a fresh escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play. This should act as a tailwind for the USD, suggesting that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside. On the economic data front, traders will take cues from the release of US JOLTS Job Openings data for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain on the key US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair maintains a bearish near-term bias beneath the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the late October swing low and the subsequent slide validates the negative outlook despite a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40.0 hints at only tentative recovery from recently oversold conditions.
Bearish traders, however, would now look to Friday's swing low, around the $3,870 area for potential demand zones, which, if broken, should pave the way for an extension of the well-established downward trajectory. On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 100-period EMA at $4,053. A sustained break above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues say AUD/USD is trading below 0.70 after a dovish RBA hike and softer industrial metals. The pair remains largely driven by industrial metals rather than RBA/Fed spreads, with the 200-day moving average near 0.7050/0.7080 seen as a key resistance. Positioning is heavily short, while fading RBA tightening expectations and weaker iron ore have reduced fundamental support.
Dovish RBA and weaker iron ore weigh
"Elsewhere in G10, the RBA earlier today delivered a fifth rate hike of the cycle, hoisting the CRT to 4.85%. The cumulative tightening of 125bp since February leaves the policy rate above the peak of 2011 and at levels last seen before the GFC."
"The accompanying statement was relatively dovish and omitted the reference to “increasing the cash rate target further if needed” while highlighting risks of inflation being above 3% for the coming year and high inflation expectations becoming embedded."
"The dovish tweak, the split vote (6-3) and CRT projection of 4.9% peak in June 2027, suggest this may well be the final hike of the cycle. Governor Bullock reiterated that policy is already restrictive by a range of metrics, including mortgage-servicing burdens, signs of softness in the housing market and estimates showing rates now sit around the upper end of neutral-rate models."
"Markets increasingly view the RBA as being in the final stages of its tightening cycle, while SGX iron ore has retreated to around $90/MT from May's peak near $108/MT, removing an important source of support for the currency."
"AUD/USD remains essentially a play on industrial metals rather than RBA/Fed differentials. The 200dma near 0.7050/0.7080 remains the key hurdle. The level provided support for much of 2026 but flipped to resistance, and a decisive break is required for sentiment to turn bullish."
"Positioning remains heavily skewed against the currency, with short AUD exposure rising to 39.5% of OI, the most bearish reading since February 2025. Fundamentally, some of the AUD's earlier tailwinds have also faded."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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