Forex News
- The Indian Rupee ticks lower amid US trade policy uncertainty ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks.
- US Trade Representative Greer said that global tariffs could be raised to 15% or higher on some countries.
- India’s Q4 GDP is estimated to have grown at a moderate pace of 7.2% Year-on-Year (YoY).
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) after a flat opening on Thursday. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 91.15 ahead of nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva later in the day. The outcome of nuclear talks would have a significant impact on oil prices, which could influence the next move in the Indian Rupee.
Currencies from countries, such as India, that rely heavily on imports of oil to fulfill their energy needs, remain highly sensitive to changes in oil prices.
Meanwhile, improving sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian stock market could boost the Indian Rupee’s appeal going forward. So far in February, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers and have bought shares worth Rs. 4,361.57 crore, after remaining sellers for seven straight months.
Signs of FIIs returning to the Indian equity market stem from improving trade relations between the US and India. Earlier this month, the US and India acknowledged a trade deal confirmation in which Washington reduced tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 18% from 50% (which included punitive tariffs for buying oil from Russia).
Domestically, investors await the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The GDP data is expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 7.2%, slower than 8.2% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025.
On the global front, investors seek clarity on the United States (US) trade policy outlook. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that Washington could raise tariffs to 15% or above on some nations from the recently announced 10% duties. Greer didn’t disclose the names of the US trading partners that could be charged higher tariffs.
US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% global levy to offset the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling against his tariff policy. On Friday, the SC accused Trump of invoking emergency economic powers to back his tariff agenda and invalidated the so-called reciprocal duties.
The uncertainty over the US trade policy outlook has been a major drag on the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution near 97.50.
On the monetary policy front, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the March and April policy meetings in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds crucial 20-day EMA
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USD/INR trades flat at around 91.00 as of writing. The pair holds marginally above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, keeping a cautious bullish bias in place while upside momentum remains contained. Price action has stabilized after the early-month surge, and the flattening of the 20-day EMA reflects a moderating trend rather than an outright reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating signs of volatility contraction.
Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 90.94, with a break below exposing the recent reaction low at 90.58 and then the February 3 low at 90.15 as deeper support. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the January 22 low of 91.35, followed by the January 28 low of 91.66.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Ministry of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by India. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of Indian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Rupee, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Fri Feb 27, 2026 10:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 7.2%
Previous: 8.2%
Source:
- GBP/JPY retraces to near 211.30 after a two-day upside move as the Yen regains ground.
- BoJ’s Ueda keeps the hopes for interest rate hikes on the table.
- The BoE is expected to deliver an interest rate cut in March.
The GBP/JPY pair is down 0.3% to near 211.30 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The pair corrects after a sharp upside move in the last two trading days as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes in the near term.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.10% | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.07% | -0.17% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | 0.17% | 0.21% | 0.18% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.05% | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.15% | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.07% | 0.14% | -0.08% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.09% | -0.16% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
BoJ’s Ueda said in an interview with Yomiuri newspaper on Tuesday that the central bank will scrutinize available data in the March and April policy meetings and then will decide on hiking interest rates during the year. Ueda reiterated, “Our basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens.”
However, market participants doubt that BoJ’s interest rate hikes will come anytime soon, as a report from the Mainichi daily on Tuesday signaled that Japan's Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi is not in favor of BoJ’s plans of raising interest rates further. The report showed a glimpse of the meeting between Takaichi and BoJ’s Ueda, which took place on February 16.
Above that, the nomination of two members, Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, for the central bank's nine-member board, at times when Takaichi’s comments have reflected a contrary preference for the monetary policy outlook, has also raised concerns over the BoJ’s hawkish prospects. Such a scenario is broadly unfavorable for the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly stable even as traders are confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in the policy meeting in March. Dovish BoE prospects are prompted by weakening United Kingdom (UK) job market conditions and cooling inflationary pressures.
Earlier this week, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor advocated for two to three interest rate cuts in the near term, citing downside employment risks and easing price pressures.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- EUR/GBP gains ground to around 0.8715 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The Gorton and Denton by-election is taking place later on Thursday.
- Eurozone inflation dropped to its lowest level since September 2024.
EUR/GBP holds positive ground near 0.8715 during the early European session on Thursday. Political risks in the United Kingdom (UK) drag the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will keep an eye on the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde speech later on Thursday.
Manchester's Gorton and Denton constituency is set to hold a special election to fill a vacant parliamentary seat on Thursday. This event is seen as a major test for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid internal party discontent and low approval ratings.
"A heavy defeat for the ruling Labour Party could re-ignite speculation over the Labour leadership and again weigh on sterling," said ING's FX strategist Francesco Pesole.
Eurozone inflation eased to 1.7% YoY in January, marking a 16-month low. This report has fueled expectations that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance, which could weigh on the EUR against the GBP.
Traders await the preliminary reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Germany on Friday for more clues about the pace of future policy easing. Any signs of cooler inflation in Germany might exert more selling pressure on the EUR in the near term.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks ahead of US-Iran talks continue to underpin the commodity.
- A modest USD weakness and bets for more Fed rate cuts further benefit the non-yielding XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh daily high heading into the European session on Thursday, with bulls looking to build on the momentum beyond the $5,200 mark. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and is supported by sustained safe-haven flows, bolstered by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and US-Iran nuclear talks.
Following the Supreme Court's verdict to block many of Trump's sweeping import taxes on Friday, the president invoked Section 122 of the Tariff Act 1974 to levy 10% additional tariffs. Trump then said on Saturday that the rate would be 15%, though the tariffs were set at the lower rate from Tuesday. However, a White House official said the administration is working to raise it to 15%. There is also anxiety over how long this rate will continue, given Trump's mercurial turns over tariffs, keeping investors on edge and underpinning the Gold.
Meanwhile, Iran and the US are scheduled to hold the third round of talks aimed at resolving the longstanding nuclear dispute amid the risk of imminent US strikes following a large-scale buildup of American forces in the Middle East. In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, Trump laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran and said he would not allow the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold.
Adding to this, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness lends additional support to the commodity and contributes to the bid tone. Despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, traders are still pricing in the possibility of three 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the US central bank. Moreover, concerns about retaliatory measures to Trump's tariffs and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains keep the USD bulls on the defensive. This, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the Gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold seems poised to appreciate further while above the $5,100 resistance breakpoint
The recent breakout through the $5,100-mark horizontal barrier was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. The positive outlook is reaffirmed by the fact that the bullion holds above the rising 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,948, which keeps the broader upward structure intact despite the latest pullback from last week’s highs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, above the 50 midline, which suggests underlying buying pressure remains in place rather than a full loss of momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped further into negative territory with the line below the Signal line and a negative histogram, pointing to fading upside momentum and warning that bulls lack strong conviction at current levels.
Initial support emerges near $5,150, where recent lows align with the short-term consolidation floor, followed by a deeper cushion at $5,100 if sellers extend the correction. A break below $5,100 would expose the $5,050 area, though the rising 200-period SMA below $4,950 is expected to underpin the broader bullish context while it holds.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits around $5,220, just beneath the recent swing high, with a clear break opening the path toward $5,260. A sustained move above $5,260 would signal renewed bullish momentum and shift the focus to higher highs in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that it’s difficult to determine now the desirable pace of rate hike and terminal rate. Takata added that the pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price and market developments at the time.
Key quotes
Difficult to determine now the desirable pace of rate hike and terminal rate.
Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time.
Overseas developments are also important in judging rate-hike timing, terminal rate.
There is no pre-set pace of rate hike, depends on future economic environment and data.
Do not think we are behind the curve now.
Want to ensure BoJ does not fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks.
There are pros and cons to weak yen.
Want to decide based on economic developments at the time, when asked whether he will continue to propose rate hike in each upcoming policy meeting.
Welcome government efforts to lift growth through growth strategy and stimulus policies, which BoJ can support with policy.
Bank of Japan must also be mindful of achieving price goal in sustainable fashion.
In exceptional cases where risk premium becomes too high, Bank of Japan must be ready to take action such as through market operations.
Market reaction
As of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.35% lower on the day at 155.90.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD demonstrates strength against its major peers on the expectation of the RBA’s near-term hikes.
- The RBA is expected to deliver another interest rate hike in May amid upside inflation risks.
- The US Dollar is weighed down by US trade policy uncertainty.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades firmly against its major currency peers, revisits the three-year high against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7140 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair demonstrates strength amid firm expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver more interest rate hikes in the near term.
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.51% | 0.62% | -0.04% | -0.70% | -0.46% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | -0.31% | 0.81% | 0.16% | -0.52% | -0.26% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | 0.31% | 1.29% | 0.47% | -0.24% | 0.05% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.62% | -0.81% | -1.29% | -0.65% | -1.29% | -1.01% | -0.95% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.47% | 0.65% | -0.66% | -0.36% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | 0.70% | 0.52% | 0.24% | 1.29% | 0.66% | 0.26% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.26% | -0.05% | 1.01% | 0.36% | -0.26% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | 0.13% | -0.19% | 0.95% | 0.29% | -0.39% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
In the policy meeting earlier this month, the RBA hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and kept the door open for further raises, citing upside inflation risks.
Traders are pricing in roughly an 80% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates in its May policy meeting. Hawkish RBA prospects have been boosted by higher-than-expected growth in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.
The data showed on Wednesday that Trimmed Mean CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) against estimates and the prior reading of 3.3%. Meanwhile, the headline inflation remained steady at 3.8%, while it was expected to cool down to 3.7%.
On Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in a fireside chat at Melbourne University, “Economy is in quite a good position, and we [RBA] have to be patient on judging policy.”
In the United States (US), the uncertainty over the trade policy outlook after the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling has weighed on the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 97.50.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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