Forex News
- March payrolls beat forecasts by a wide margin, boosting the US Dollar.
- Softer services data failed to offset the impact of strong jobs figures.
- Traders trimmed dovish Fed bets as Treasury yields edged higher.
The GBP/USD extended its losses for the second straight day, down 0.12% after a stellar US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could refocus the Federal Reserve on battling higher inflation that has remained above target for five years. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3205.
Strong payrolls and firmer yields keep Sterling on the back foot
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy created over 178K jobs in March, crushing forecasts of 60K. Despite the positive reading, February’s print was further downwardly revised to -133K, but on a positive note, the Unemployment Rate also fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4%.
In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American currency's performance versus six peers, is up a minimal 0.12% and back above the 100.00 handle amid growing speculation that the Fed would maintain steady interest rates as the Middle East conflict prolongs.
Recently, the US S&P Global Services PMI contracted in March for the first time since January 23, falling from 51.7 in February to 49.8. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote: “The PMI survey data show the US economy buckling under the strain of rising prices and intensifying uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East exacerbates existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, notably with respect to tariffs.”
Williamson commented that the stagflationary environment of no growth and surging prices is a challenge for policymakers, as the S&P survey revealed a slowdown in employment.
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed investors trimmed dovish bets and predicted the Fed would hold rates flat for the year. US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year, edged higher following the NFP release.
GBP/USD price analysis: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3205. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the clustered Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) surrounding 1.3550, confirming a loss of upside momentum after repeated failures along the descending resistance trendline that started at 1.3869. Price has also slipped away from the prior series of higher supported closes along the rising trendline from 1.3035, shifting the focus toward defending recent lows rather than extending gains. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index continues to grind higher, underscoring a firmer US Dollar backdrop that keeps rallies in GBP/USD vulnerable while the pair trades beneath the broken resistance zone.
Initial resistance emerges at the psychological 1.3300 region, where prior rebounds stalled ahead of the descending trendline, followed by 1.3400 and then the 1.3500 area aligning with the grouped moving averages that cap the upside. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3200, just below the current price, with a break exposing 1.3100 and then the 1.3035 rising trendline origin. A daily close below this latter band would confirm a deeper bearish extension, while recovery above 1.3400 would ease the immediate downside pressure and open a broader retracement toward 1.3500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | 0.45% | -0.37% | 0.43% | -0.39% | 0.98% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.63% | -0.22% | 0.60% | -0.20% | 1.17% | 0.59% | |
| GBP | -0.45% | -0.63% | -0.80% | -0.02% | -0.83% | 0.54% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.37% | 0.22% | 0.80% | 0.81% | 0.01% | 1.37% | 0.69% | |
| CAD | -0.43% | -0.60% | 0.02% | -0.81% | -0.84% | 0.55% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.83% | -0.01% | 0.84% | 1.38% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | -0.98% | -1.17% | -0.54% | -1.37% | -0.55% | -1.38% | -0.61% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | -0.59% | 0.07% | -0.69% | 0.06% | -0.75% | 0.61% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY under pressure as intervention fears cap gains despite a firm US Dollar.
- Markets remain cautious near the 160 level amid persistent warnings from Japanese authorities.
- Solid US data support US Dollar and strengthen expectations that Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer.
USD/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Friday as lingering intervention fears support the Japanese Yen (JPY), even as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm against its major peers following the upside surprise in US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Thin liquidity conditions due to the Good Friday holiday are also contributing to muted and choppy price action.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 159.57, easing modestly after a brief spike to 159.82 in reaction to the US labor data.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 178K jobs in March, beating expectations of 60K, while the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.3% from 4.4%. February’s figure was also revised lower to show a loss of 133K jobs, compared to the previously reported decline of 92K, highlighting recent volatility in the labor market.
Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% MoM in March, below the 0.3% forecast and down from 0.4% previously. On an annual basis, Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.5%, missing expectations of 3.7% and slowing from 3.8%.
The stronger-than-expected headline print supported expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged for longer, with markets largely pricing out rate cuts amid Oil-driven inflation risks stemming from the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.
However, business activity data painted a softer picture, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) easing to 50.3 in March from 51.9 in February, marking its weakest level since September 2023. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 49.8, below the flash estimate of 51.1, signaling contraction and the lowest reading in over three years.
The soft PMI print did little to weigh on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.15, extending gains for the second straight day.
Even so, USD/JPY struggles to draw support. Traders remain wary near the 160 level, as Japanese authorities have repeatedly signaled readiness to act against excessive volatility, keeping gains capped despite underlying US Dollar strength.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
The US S&P Global Services PMI in March reported that business activity in the sector is slowing sharply, falling to contractionary territory for the first time since January 2023, amid higher inflation and the war in the Middle East.
The index fell from 51.7 in February to 49.8, according to S&P. They noted that, “Overall, it was the lowest index reading for over three years and consistent with a fractional contraction in activity.”
Rising input prices due to the surge in energy costs are one of the reasons that are weighing on the services sector, as the report read, “the latest price data signaled the continuation of above trend input cost inflation, with prices overall rising to the greatest degree so far in 2026.”
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote, “The service sector has slipped into contraction for the first time since January 2023, dragging the overall economy down to a near-stalled 0.5% annualized rate of growth in March. Worst hit is consumer-facing service sectors where, barring the pandemic lockdowns, the downturn reported in March was among the steepest recorded since data were first available in 2009.”
He added that the “Key to the deteriorating growth trend is a pull-back in spending amid worsening affordability, with costs and selling prices surging higher in March amid spiking energy prices.”
Market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls data
The US Dollar (USD) remains steady after its modest rise following the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading with modest gains above 100.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.33% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.21% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.19% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.21% | 0.02% | 0.14% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.33% | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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