Forex News
- The Bank of England is expected to hold the key interest rate at 3.75% for the fourth straight meeting on Thursday.
- UK inflation steadied in May, and hopes of peace in the Middle East have sent Oil prices tumbling.
- The Pound Sterling might come under pressure if the BoE turns dovish.
The Bank of England (BoE) is on track to leave the benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive time on Thursday, as the US-Iran peace deal and the softer-than-expected consumer inflation figures seen earlier in the week have eased pressures to tighten its monetary policy.
UK economy is giving worrying signs of weakening at the outset of the second quarter, and Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures have shown inflationary pressures remained somewhat contained in May. With Oil prices in decline and a US-Iran peace deal at the table, the BoE seems unlikely to hike interest rates on Thursday and probably not in the rest of the year either.
It will not be a “Super Thursday,” and therefore, Governor Andrew Bailey will not speak after the decision. Markets will look through the minutes of the bank and analyze changes in the vote split to try to assess the bank’s forward path.
What to expect from the Bank of England policy announcements?
Recent UK data and the progress on the US-Iran peace process have significantly changed the scenario for the Bank of England, and although the bank is unlikely to alter its “wait-and-see” stance, these new circumstances might prompt BoE policymakers to adopt a more dovish stance.
Oil prices have dropped sharply from recent highs: Brent Oil is about 30% below the level it was at the previous BoE meeting. The US and Iran have advanced towards a peace deal that might lead to resuming toll-free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which would contribute to easing energy prices further.
In the UK, Consumer Price Index figures released on Wednesday delivered a positive surprise. Yearly inflation remained steady at 2.8%, significantly below the 3.3% peak reached in March, with monthly inflation easing to 0.2% from 0.7% in the previous month and core inflation growing below expectations. May’s inflation figures are below the Bank of England’s February projections, easing pressure on the bank to hike interest rates in the coming months.
Beyond that, the UK economy is giving signs of exhaustion. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank 0.1% in April, following a 0.3% growth in March and 0.4% in February, and Industrial Production stalled after a 0.2% contraction in the previous month. In this context, the BoE risks tipping the economy into a long-lasting recession by tightening borrowing costs.
The bank voted in April to keep interest rates on hold by 8 votes against 1, with the bank’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, calling for a rate hike. Investors will be eager to know whether Pill has changed his mind in the new scenario, and, possibly, for any potential voices bringing rate cuts back to the table.
In conclusion, recent developments have cemented market expectations that the BoE will stand pat on Thursday, shifting the focus to the vote split to assess whether the soft inflation and economic growth data have prompted committee members to ditch hopes of interest rate hikes.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank agree that recent developments have provided some leeway for the BoE to maintain its policy unchanged: “The sting from the Iran conflict looks less than markets initially assumed. The peak in CPI could end up well below what we saw last year. This could give the BoE some pause for thought. Indeed, it could buy the MPC more time to assess the risks around so-called second round effects.”
How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?
The British Pound (GBP) has been trading sideways around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) this week, after picking up from two-month lows near 1.3300. Reports of progress in the US-Iran peace talks have supported a moderate Pound recovery, as risk appetite undermined demand for the safe-haven USD.
The pair, however, remains halfway through the monthly trading range, with upside attempts limited below the 1.3500 area.
The risk from the BoE’s monetary policy decision is skewed to the downside, as macroeconomic data has paved the way for the bank to leave interest rates unchanged in the near-term. With this in mind, investors will be looking for hints of a dovish turn, which might increase negative pressure on the Pound.
Guillermo Alcalá, FX Analyst at FXStreet, sees the GBP/USD likely to drift lower towards the 1.3300 area if the BoE delivers a “dovish hold”: “The pair lost momentum after the release of the UK CPI data and might extend its reversal if the BoE turns dovish. Immediate support at the 1.3380-1.3390 area might give way, but it might require additional impulse to breach the key 1.3300 area.”
Upside attempts remain limited for now, but Alcalá warns that the confirmation of a peace deal in the Middle East might send the GBP surging: “Pound buyers are lacking incentives right now, but we should not forget that the reaction to the US-Iran deal has been tame so far. If the peace agreement is confirmed and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, risk appetite might boost the Pound to 1.3500 and beyond.”
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Economic Indicator
BoE Minutes
The minutes of the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings are published alongside the committee decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view among members. They also record the votes of each member of the MPC. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jun 18, 2026 11:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Bank of England
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Antoine Martinis is speaking at the press conference following the June monetary policy assessment, in which the central bank held interest rates unchanged at 0%.
Key quotes
Anticipate inflation worldwide to remain elevated over coming quarters due to higher raw material prices.
Business and household sentiment deteriorated due to rising energy prices.
Global economic growth solid overall in first quarter, supported by AI spending
Baseline scenario subject to high uncertainty as situation in middle east still fragile, trade policy environment remains uncertain.
This will likely weigh on consumers' purchasing power, result in more moderate global economic growth.
Market reaction
At the press time, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is losing ground against the US Dollar (USD), with USD/CHF trading 0.09% higher on the day at 0.8006.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.26% | -0.21% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.19% | -0.19% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.27% | -0.27% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.24% | -0.23% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.00% | -0.08% | -0.31% | -0.30% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.31% | 0.01% | 0.32% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.23% | 0.30% | -0.01% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.32% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CHF returns to levels beyond 0.8000, nearing two-and-a-half-month highs, at 0.8015.
- The SNB has left rates unchanged at 0% and hints at a steady monetary policy in the mid-term.
- The US Dollar holds gains following a "hawkish hold by the Fed on Wednesday.
The Swiss Franc gives away previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) with the USD/CHF pair turning positive on daily charts as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirmed its decision to leave rates unchanged. The pair has popped up above 0.8000 following the interest rate decision, approaching two-and-a-half-month highs at 0.8015.
The Swiss central bank has left its benchmark interest rate steady at 0% for the twelfth consecutive time, as it was widely expected. The bank’s statement acknowledges a recent uptick in inflation due to higher energy prices, yet with medium-term inflationary pressures virtually unchanged, which suggests that the monetary policy is unlikely to change in the coming months
The SNB Chairman, Martin Schlegel, is speaking to the press at the time of writing, providing further details about the bank’s economic forecasts and the monetary policy outlook.
Earlier on the day, data released by Swiss customs revealed that the Trade Balance surplus widened to CHF 6.11 billion in May, doubling up April’s CHF 3.05 billion surplus. The figures provided mild support to the Swissie at the European session opening.
The Swiss Franc dropped more than 0.8% on Wednesday as a hawkishly-leaning Federal Reserve (Fed) sent the US Dollar rallying across the board. The Fed kept interest rates on hold in the first meeting under Kevin Warsh, but the new chairman cleared doubts about his commitment to bring inflation under control, while the dot plot showed that half of the committee members see at least one rate hike before the year-end.
Economic Indicator
SNB Interest Rate Decision
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jun 18, 2026 07:30
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 0%
Consensus: 0%
Previous: 0%
Source: Swiss National Bank
Economic Indicator
SNB Press Conference
The Swiss National Bank (SNB), led by the Chairman of the Governing Board, holds a press conference after each of its quarterly meetings, held in March, June, September and December, when it takes decisions on interest rates and formulates economic forecasts for the future. The press conference has two parts – first a prepared statement is read out, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create market volatility. Hawkish comments tend to boost the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a dovish message tends to weaken it.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jun 18, 2026 08:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: -
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Swiss National Bank
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel is addressing the press conference post the June monetary policy assessment, in which the central bank held interest rates unchanged at 0%.
Key quotes
Swiss inflation has risen in recent months due to higher energy prices; mid-term inflationary pressure is unchanged
If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the forex market.
Rise in Swiss inflation has been less than in other countries; remains within the target range.
Our monetary policy continues to have expansionary effect.
Inflation will continue to rise slightly in coming quarters, before declining in first half of 2027.
Geopolitical uncertainties remain, risk of strong upward pressure on the Franc persists.
Uncertainty remains still elevated and energy markets are largely influenced by situation in the Middle East.
If necessary our readiness to intervene in forex market is higher, difficult to say if it is more or less than before.
We look at the whole situation when it comes to interventions, the franc has weakened a bit since last meeting.
Many factors affect the exchange rate, the interest rate differential to ecb and our increased readiness to intervene.
Geopolitical, trade uncertainty is very high.
Market reaction
USD/CHF is holding modest gains at around 0.8000 following these comments.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as widely expected, announced to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0% at the conclusion of the second quarter meeting this Thursday.
In the accompanying policy statement, the SNB revised its inflation forecast to 0.6% for 2027 and to 0.7% for 2028, up from 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The central bank sees 2026 GDP growth at around 1%, the same as forecasted previously.
Meanwhile, the SNB reiterated that it will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy, if necessary, in order to ensure price stability. In its baseline scenario, the central bank anticipates that inflation worldwide will remain elevated over the coming quarters due to higher raw material prices and that global economic growth is likely to be more moderate in the short term than in the previous quarters.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges lower following the decision, lifting the USD/CHF pair back above the 0.8000 psychological mark. However, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) keeps the currency pair below its highest level since early April, touched on Wednesday.
The market focus now shifts to the post-meeting press conference, where comments from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel and Governing Board Members might provide a fresh impetus to the CHF.
USD/CHF daily chart
From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair maintains a bullish near-term bias above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 62, and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that the underlying demand remains in place, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive.
Meanwhile, initial support is defined by the 200-period EMA at 0.7957, and a daily close below this area would weaken the current bullish structure and expose deeper corrective losses. As long as spot prices remain above this moving average, dip-buying interest is likely to persist, with bulls retaining control of the short-term outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.24% | -0.18% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.18% | -0.16% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.23% | -0.21% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.25% | -0.23% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.31% | -0.28% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.30% | |
| NZD | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.28% | -0.03% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.30% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 18, from the previous 5.5%. The decision aligned with the market expectations.
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) receives support against the US Dollar (USD) as an immediate reaction to the BI interest rate decision. The USD/IDR is trading around 17,820 at the time of writing.
BI Governor Perry Warjiyo's key quotes
- Inflation remains under control.
- Rupiah is seen stabilising, with a tendency to strengthen going forward.
- 2026 GDP outlook is seen in the range of +4.9% to +5.7%, unchanged.
- Rupiah has strengthened, supported by Bank Indonesia's stabilisation measures.
- Has increased the intensity of currency interventions to defend the rupiah.
- We have raised SRBI rates to attract foreign capital inflows.
- Outstanding SRBI rupiah notes at 1,021.1 trillion rupiah, with non-resident investors holding 238.1 trillion rupiah as of mid-June.
Forex Market News
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