Forex News
- The Indian Rupee gains at open against the US Dollar due to the RBI’s measures to curb dollar buying.
- US President Trump said that Iran is willing to give up its nuclear ambitions.
- FIIs remained net buyers in the last two trading days.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the opening of special credit lines for state-run oil buyers to meet their foreign exchange needs has strengthened the Asian currency. The USD/INR pair declines to near 92.80 after remaining sideways in the last two trading days.
According to a Reuters report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on Thursday, urged state-run oil refiners to curb spot dollar purchases and to tap a special credit line, in an attempt to reduce the impact of dollar buying by state-run oil refiners on the domestic currency. This facility was also started by the RBI when the Russia-Ukraine war started.
The Indian central bank has been taking several measures to limit the downside in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. In late March, the RBI directed banks to cap their net open rupee positions in the foreign exchange market at $100 million by the end of each business day.
Trump seems confident of a deal with Iran
Oil prices remain capped, and the market sentiment is broadly risk-on as United States (US) President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that a deal with Iran is very likely. “We're very close to a deal with Iran,” Trump said in a press briefing on Thursday. However, he warned that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not reached.
The overall commentary from US President Trump appeared to be expressing optimism toward a permanent truce with Iran. Trump said that Iran is now “more willing to do things today they previously weren't”, such as giving up nuclear ambitions and handing over enriched uranium.
Upbeat market sentiment has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.25, but is set for a consecutive negative weekly close.
Meanwhile, capped WTI Oil prices around $90 from the past few days after surging above $100 is also offering support to the Indian Rupee. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, take a recovery route when oil prices start correcting.
FIIs start buying in Indian stock market
The response by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) toward the Indian equity market appears to start improving since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8. In the last two trading days, FIIs have remained net buyers and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,048.51 crore. However, the amount of investment is significantly lower than the selling pressure seen before the temporary truce announcement.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR falls below 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades lower at around 92.80, as of writing, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.06. The recent pullback from last week’s highs has pushed the price under this short-term trend gauge, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.6 has slipped just below the neutral 50 line, hinting that upside momentum is fading without yet signaling oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is now defined by the 20-day EMA at 93.07, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and reopen the path toward recent peaks above 95.00. As long as the pair holds beneath this moving average, rebounds are likely to struggle, leaving risks skewed toward additional consolidation or further slippage in the coming sessions toward the March 3 high of 92.46.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- Asian equities fall as caution grows over uncertain US–Iran ceasefire prospects.
- Lebanese army reports multiple Israeli ceasefire violations after truce took effect.
- BoJ’s Ueda must consider Japan’s low real interest rates in policy decisions.
Asian equities decline on Friday as investor sentiment turned cautious regarding the prospects of a lasting US–Iran ceasefire agreement. Additionally, traders engaged in profit-taking after a strong rally fueled by increasing optimism about a potential resolution to the US–Iran conflict.
CNN reported that the Lebanese army recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce came into effect. Lebanon accused Israel of carrying out “some acts of aggression,” noting that intermittent shelling has impacted several villages across southern Lebanon. The army also urged residents to delay returning to towns and villages in the south amid the reported ceasefire breaches.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had held discussions with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump added that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a 10-day ceasefire, which took effect at 5 PM ET.
At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading 1% lower near 58,900, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is down over 1.30% to near 26,05, China’s SSE Composite Index loses 0.30% to near 4,050, and South Korea’s Kospi falls 0.42% to near 6,200.
President Trump expressed confidence that the war with Iran would conclude soon, stating that Tehran had agreed to terms, including abandoning its nuclear ambitions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank must consider Japan’s low real interest rates when setting monetary policy. Markets remain divided on whether the BoJ will raise interest rates again later this month.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index halted its three-day winning streak amid cautious market sentiment. However, gains in Hong Kong equities remained broad-based, with technology, financial, and consumer sectors benefiting from an improved outlook and stronger global cues.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol said on Friday that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices. Birol added that release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration
Key quotes
On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, we are not there yet.
However, it is definitely under consideration.
We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time
If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices.
We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels again.
The push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipated.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.39% on the day at $89.35.
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Economic concerns due to the Iran conflict and reduced BoJ rate hike bets undermine the JPY.
- Hormuz risks benefit the USD and spot prices, though dovish Fed bets might cap further gains.
The USD/JPY pair is seen building on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 158.25 region, or over a one-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction on Friday. This marks the third straight day of a move up and lifts spot prices to mid-159.00s during the Asian session.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of growing market concerns about the potential economic implications of the Middle East conflict. Furthermore, declining market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in April further undermine the JPY and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, the instability in the Strait of Hormuz, due to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving the previous day's recovery gains from its lowest level since late February. However, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets cap the buck and the USD/JPY pair.
The overnight rebound from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the lower end of a short-term trading range, and the subsequent move up favor the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, momentum metrics validate the positive outlook and back the case for a further appreciating move.
The Relative Strength Index is around 61, suggesting firm but not overstretched buying pressure. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher in positive territory. This hints at strengthening upside momentum and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside.
In the meantime, initial support is seen at the recent price pivot near 159.47, with a deeper cushion provided by the 200-period EMA at 158.46, which should act as a key downside reference. As long as sellers fail to force a sustained break below the 200-period EMA, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.21% | -0.14% | -0.12% | 0.03% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.19% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.03% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.19% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.32% | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.25% | -0.10% | -0.07% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/JPY extends the rally to near 114.30 in Friday’s early European session.
- Markets imply a 65% odds of another quarter-point rise by the RBA in May.
- BoJ’s Ueda steered clear of signaling a rate hike was on the cards this month.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the fifth consecutive day around 114.30 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The Australian central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.10%. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 65% probability of another hike at the next policy meeting, which would lift the OCR to 4.35%, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Andrew Hauser said on Monday that he was not confident that interest rates were at the right level to tame inflation, adding that interest rates would need to go to the level that brings inflation back to the target band of 2%-3% from its headline rate of 3.7% in February. Hawkish remarks from RBA policymakers provide some support to the Aussie.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that a decision on how soon to raise interest rates must take into account the fact that the nation's real interest rate is low. Ueda further stated that Japan is facing rising inflation from a "negative supply shock," which is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than inflation driven by strong demand.
Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might underpin the JPY and cap the upside for the cross. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she’s held close discussions on foreign exchange issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and that authorities are prepared for “bold” action if needed. She also told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Gold remains on the defensive, though it lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues.
- The USD is underpinned by Hormuz risks and acts as a headwind for the precious metal.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading Fed rate hike bets cap the USD, supporting the bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the $4,800 mark, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues. Despite intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict, signs of friction between the US and Iran remained due to the ongoing American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This is seen underpinning the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and acting as a headwind for the commodity.
Meanwhile, a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon fueled hopes about a potential US-Iran peace deal. In fact, US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic note and told reporters on Thursday that Iran was close to making a deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, though neither side has set a time or venue for the meeting. Nevertheless, the developments remain supportive of a positive risk tone, which, along with diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), caps the USD recovery from its lowest level since late February and assists Gold to reverse a dip to the $4,768-$4,767 region.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this week eased concerns about the inflationary impact of the war-driven surge in energy prices. Adding to this, bets for a further de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East keep Crude Oil prices on the defensive and temper hawkish Fed expectations. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a Fed rate cut by the year-end, holding back traders from positioning for any further USD gains, and lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of this week's pullback from a nearly one-month high.
Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches from influential FOMC members. The focus, however, will remain glued to another round of US-Iran peace talks, which could take place this weekend. The incoming headlines might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and produce some meaningful opportunities around the Gold. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to post modest gains for the third straight week.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bulls need to await move beyond 200-period SMA pivotal hurdle on H4
From a technical perspective, the overnight failed attempt to conquer the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart warrants some caution for bullish traders. The subsequent slide, however, stalls ahead of the 50% retracement level of the March fall, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $4,765 support zone before positioning for any further losses.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping further below the zero line with a negative reading. This hints that sellers retain the tactical advantage unless price can reclaim key 200-period SMA resistance, around $4,814. This is followed by a stronger Fibonacci barrier at the 61.8% retracement near $4,912. A sustained break above these hurdles would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward $5,130 and $5,409.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 50.0% retracement at $4,759, and a break below this level would expose the next Fibonacci floors at $4,606 and then $4,416, where buyers would be expected to show more interest in defending the broader uptrend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,363.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 14,349.95 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 167,541.00 per tola from INR 167,375.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,363.95 |
10 Grams | 143,641.80 |
Tola | 167,541.00 |
Troy Ounce | 446,769.20 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- NZD/USD remains on the defensive, though it lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues.
- Hormuz risks offer support to the safe-haven USD and undermine the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
- Iran diplomacy hopes cap the USD and help limit losses for the pair amid a bullish setup.
The NZD/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias for the second straight day and remains on the back foot below the 0.5900 mark through the Asian session on Friday. The lack of follow-through selling, however, warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the previous day's retracement slide from the 0.5920-0.5925 region, or an over one-month high.
Despite the latest optimism led by the Israel-Lebanon 10-day truce, investors remain cautious ahead of another round of US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This, in turn, is seen offering some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. That said, hopes for a potential US-Iran peace deal, along with diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), cap the USD and help limit losses for the currency pair.
Last week, spot prices confirmed a bullish breakout through the 0.5835-0.5840 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April fall. The subsequent move beyond the 50% retracement level, however, stalls ahead of the 61.8% Fibo. level, which is currently pegged near the 0.5930-0.5935 region and should act as a key pivotal point. A sustained move beyond should pave the way for further gains to 0.6004 and the cycle high at 0.6093.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are supportive rather than aggressive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 56 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is gradually strengthening.
Hence, any further slide is likely to find immediate support near the 50% retracement at 0.5885, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5845 and the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5836. A deeper pullback toward 0.5776 and the 0.5678 swing low would only come into focus if these nearby floors give way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- EUR/JPY cross reached an all-time high of 187.83 on Friday.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 71, hinting at a possible corrective consolidation.
- The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.76.
EUR/JPY gains after registering little losses in the previous day, trading at 187.83, an all-time high, during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, signaling a persistent bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross retains a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The rising EMAs suggest underlying demand remains in control.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in overbought territory near 71, hinting that upside momentum is strong but vulnerable to bouts of corrective consolidation.
The EUR/JPY cross may target the immediate resistance at the psychological level of 188.00, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.50.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find its primary support at the nine-day EMA of 186.76. A move below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum, exposing the lower ascending channel boundary around 185.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.46.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.18% | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.07% | 0.06% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.13% | -0.12% | -0.11% | 0.03% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.26% | -0.12% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.25% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.21% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/IDR sticks to bullish bias as economic concerns continue to undermine the Indonesian Rupiah.
- Hormuz risks offer some support to the safe-haven USD, lending additional support to spot prices.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading Fed rate hike bets might cap the USD, and cap gains for the pair.
The USD/IDR pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Friday and advances to a fresh all-time peak, around 17,1885-17,190 region in the lar hour. Spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains and seem poised to appreciate further.
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) continues to underperform on the back of economic risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As Indonesia is a net Oil importer, the war-driven surge in energy prices has increased the country's import and subsidy costs. Adding to this, geopolitical tensions led to capital outflows from Indonesia's bond and equity markets as investors moved into safer assets, like the US Dollar (USD). This has been a key factor behind the recent move up in the USD/IDR pair witnessed over the past month or so.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is looking to build on the overnight recovery from its lowest level since late February, due to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon fueled hopes about a potential US-Iran peace deal. This, in turn, remains supportive of a positive risk tone, which, along with diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the USD and might keep a lid on the USD/IDR pair.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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