Forex News
- Silver falls due to Middle East uncertainty and rising bets on a Fed interest rate hike.
- Despite a halt in attacks, long-term stability is elusive as Netanyahu declared the war with Iran and Hezbollah "has not yet ended."
- The non-yielding Silver loses appeal as Middle East tension and strong US jobs data fuel Fed rate hike expectations.
Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around $67.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Uncertainty in the Middle East and rising bets on a United States (US) interest rate hike continue to keep Silver on the defensive.
Hopes for peace grew after Iran and Israel agreed to halt mutual attacks following an intervention by US President Donald Trump. However, long-term stability remains elusive. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the war against Iran and Hezbollah "has not yet ended," even as he claimed both adversaries are weaker than ever.
While Iran’s military confirmed it has stopped its strikes, its central command warned of "much harsher and more crushing actions" if Israel resumes operations, including those in southern Lebanon.
This lingering geopolitical friction, paired with robust US jobs data, has stoked inflation fears and reinforced expectations of higher Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates. As a non-yielding asset, Silver loses its luster when rates climb.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have raised the probability of a December quarter-point rate hike to 42%, up from 14% a month ago. The market is now bracing for Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data to gauge the Fed's next move.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD steadies following the previous day’s modest bounce from over a three-week low.
- The end of Israel-Iran hostilities undermines the safe-haven USD and lends support to the pair.
- Hawkish Fed bets limit USD losses, while UK political turmoil acts as a headwind for the GBP.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 1.3300 neighborhood, or over a three-week low, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.3300s amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciation.
Iran’s army announced on Monday that its attack on Israel was over, though it warned that further strikes on Lebanon would open the door for retaliation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the halt in fighting with Iran, but he vowed to respond with force to future attacks. This, in turn, drags the safe-haven USD further away from its highest level since late March, touched the previous day, and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps a lid on the market optimism, which, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, should help limit deeper USD losses. In fact, traders are currently pricing in over a 70% chance that the US central bank will hike rates by the end of this year amid inflationary concerns, which favors the USD bulls and caps the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's authority has been severely shaken following the resignations of junior ministers, fueling political uncertainty. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP). Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom, as the focus remains on the release of US inflation figures and the monthly UK GDP.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.10% | 0.07% | -0.42% | -0.51% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.31% | -0.23% | -0.31% | 0.35% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.23% | -0.27% | -0.36% | 0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.35% | -0.48% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.31% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.42% | -0.59% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.23% | 0.27% | 0.35% | 0.42% | -0.08% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 0.51% | 0.31% | 0.36% | 0.48% | 0.59% | 0.08% | 0.67% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.35% | -0.30% | -0.28% | -0.08% | -0.58% | -0.67% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/JPY edges higher to near 160.20 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Speculation that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy supports the US Dollar.
- Japan’s Katayama said officials were prepared for decisive measures to prevent domestic currency weakness.
The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory around 160.20 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Escalation in the Middle East continues to boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, fears of imminent currency intervention by Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the pair.
The US economy posted a third straight month of strong job gains in May, with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rising by 172K in May, versus the 179K increase (revised from 115K). This figure came in stronger than the market expectation of 85K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in May, in line with the market consensus.
Traders raise their bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike after the upbeat US jobs data, supporting the Greenback. Markets are now pricing in a 43% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in December, up from just about 14% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Japanese authorities have issued strong verbal warnings, stating that the government is fully prepared to take decisive and appropriate action to protect the domestic currency. This, in turn, could underpin the JPY and create a headwind for the pair. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday emphasized that the stance is unchanged and authorities are prepared for decisive measures.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8147 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8198 and 6.7809 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- NZD/USD declines as the US Dollar holds ground amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East ceasefire.
- An Iran-Israel agreement to halt attacks followed President Trump's appeal, boosting hopes for peace negotiations.
- New Zealand's Total Manufacturing Sales volume rebounded to 3.6% in Q1, reversing a 0.4% drop in the previous quarter.
NZD/USD loses ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5800 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East ceasefire.
Iran and Israel agreed to halt mutual attacks. The de-escalation came after an appeal from US President Donald Trump, boosting hopes that peace negotiations could move forward. However, complete stability remains elusive as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the war against Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah, "has not yet ended," though he insisted both entities are weaker than ever.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s remarks followed a statement from Iran’s military confirming it had ceased strikes against Israel. Nevertheless, Iran’s central military command issued a stern warning, declaring that if Israel continues its attacks, including those in southern Lebanon, "much harsher and more crushing actions than before will be on the way."
On the data front, New Zealand's seasonally adjusted Total Manufacturing Sales volume rose 3.6% in the March 2026 quarter, bouncing back from a 0.4% decline in the December 2025 quarter. In terms of value, total manufacturing sales increased by $976 million (2.8%), building on a $286 million (0.8%) gain in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, traders remained cautious ahead of Tuesday's release of China's Trade Balance data. As New Zealand's largest trading partner, China's economic performance is expected to provide key direction for local market conditions.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- AUD/USD remains on the defensive and reduced RBA rate hike bets counter softer USD.
- A halt in fighting between Israel and Iran undermines demand for the safe-haven buck.
- Peace deal uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets limit USD losses ahead of US inflation data.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from its lowest level since April 13 and drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7040-0.7035 region and seem vulnerable amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
The global risk sentiment got a minor lift late Monday after Iran and Israel announced a halt in fighting for now. However, the geopolitical uncertainty persists as the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. This helps limit the safe-haven US Dollar's (USD) corrective slide from over a two-month high, touched on Monday, and acts as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
Furthermore, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations turn out to be another factor underpinning the Greenback. In fact, traders are currently pricing in over a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, along with diminishing odds for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in June, exerts some pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the AUD/USD pair.
The attention this week will be on the closely-watched US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May, scheduled on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial US inflation figures will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's future policy path amid a still resilient US labor market and the economy. This, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the AUD/USD pair.
In the meantime, the recent breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favors bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery move is more likely to be sold into and remain capped as traders look to China’s Trade Balance data for short-term opportunities.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the stance is unchanged and authorities are prepared for decisive measures.
Key quotes
Possible to balance fiscal sustainability and economic stimulus measures.
Stance unchanged, prepared for decisive measures.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.02% on the day at 160.20.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- WTI declines as supply concerns ease following an agreement between Iran and Israel to halt mutual attacks.
- Netanyahu stated the war with Iran and Hezbollah "has not yet ended," leaving stability elusive.
- President Trump urged de-escalation, noting that ongoing talks with Tehran should eventually ease oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower after registering over 1% losses in the previous day, trading around $89.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices have declined as supply concerns eased following an agreement between Iran and Israel to halt mutual attacks. The de-escalation came after an appeal from US President Donald Trump, boosting hopes that peace negotiations could move forward.
However, complete stability remains elusive. CNBC reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the war against Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah, "has not yet ended," though he insisted both entities are weaker than ever. His remarks followed a statement from Iran’s military confirming it had ceased strikes against Israel. Nevertheless, Iran’s central military command issued a stern warning, declaring that if Israel continues its attacks, including those in southern Lebanon, "much harsher and more crushing actions than before will be on the way."
The recent pause follows a series of direct military exchanges. Israel previously hit a petrochemical plant in southwestern Iran that it claimed was used to produce ballistic missiles. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated with a strike targeting a similar Israeli facility in the city of Haifa. This exchange followed intense over-the-weekend Israeli strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. Tehran has repeatedly maintained that any deal with Washington to end the conflict is contingent upon Israel halting its military campaign in Lebanon.
While President Trump has urged both sides to de-escalate and noted that ongoing talks with Tehran should eventually ease oil prices, significant energy supply challenges persist. Although the ceasefire currently remains intact, the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed under a dual blockade by the US and Iran. This blockade continues to severely disrupt the shipment of crude oil, refined fuels, and natural gas to global markets.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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