Forex News

MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim trade deal, including tariff cuts and exemptions, as positive for India’s external position. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break below 90 in coming months, but expects only a shallow INR recovery. MUFG forecasts USD/INR at 89.50 in Q1 2026 before rising back to 93.00 by year-end on FDI repatriation and wider deficits.

Tariff cuts help but upside later

"USD/INR: US and India provided more details around the interim trade deal. Overall we think it is a positive, and we forecast USD/INR at 89.50 by March 2026 and 93.00 by Dec 2026"

"Overall, we continue to think there is a good chance for USD/INR to break below the 90 level over the next few months but this will likely be a shallow recovery to reach"

"89.50 in 1Q2026."

"Over time, we continue to see USD/INR rising to 93.00 by 4Q2026, driven by continued FDI repatriation and import needs with a wider current account deficit."

"Overall we view the details as positive, notwithstanding some possible political pushback in India on some of the agricultural related concessions."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Commerzbank’s FX analysts note that Singapore’s 2026 Budget emphasizes supply-side support, SME internationalisation and capital-market development, including fresh funding for the Equity Market Development Programme and Anchor Fund. The Singapore Dollar has outperformed most Asian peers, with USD/SGD nearing a 10-year low as the Straits Times Index hits record highs.

Fiscal support and strong currency performance

"Prime Minister Lawrence Wong unveiled the 2026 Budget yesterday, with a focus on supply-side support and capital market development."

"In FX, USD-SGD was little changed at 1.2630 yesterday."

"The pair is approaching the 10-year low of 1.2580."

"This year, SGD is the second best performing Asian currency behind MYR (+4.0%) and THB (+1.9%)."

"Year-to-date, SGD is up 1.8% vs the USD."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

MUFG’s Lin Li and Khang Sek Lee note that China’s January CPI slowdown was heavily distorted by Chinese New Year base effects, with food and services dragging headline inflation. PPI deflation narrowed on stronger global metals prices and tech-related demand. They expect reflation to remain gradual despite anti-involution measures, while the PBOC’s “moderately loose” stance and upcoming easing should keep USD/CNY on a mild downward path in 2026.

Base effects mask underlying reflation trend

"Looking beyond the January prints, we think the reflation will likely remain gradual despite the ongoing anti-involution campaign."

"In China, the PBOC has reinforced a clear easing bias for 2026, signalling that monetary policy will remain “moderately loose”. China’s GDP slowed to 4.5%yoy in Q4."

"Further policy easing may be needed in H1 2026 to support the economy and revive credit demand."

"In Asia, for People's Bank of China (PBOC) meeting on Feb 20, investors will watch for further monetary easing measures to combat structural slowdowns."

"The PBOC has recently pledged to maintain a "moderately loose" policy to support domestic demand, which could keep the CNY at the lower end of its trading range."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 2.5%, citing robust Q4 momentum, stronger financial activity and improving consumer sentiment. The bank expects a modest housing market rebound but remains cautiously optimistic due to structural shifts and global risks. HIBOR is seen lower in H1 before gradually rising again by Q4.

Growth upgraded but risks still present

"We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% (from 2.5%), given the robust growth momentum in Q4."

"We expect the financial industry to capitalise on Hong Kong’s regained impetus, notably in IPO fundraising and Renminbi internationalisation."

"Consumer sentiment is likely to improve further given the ongoing stock market rally."

"We also expect a modest rebound in the housing market."

"However, we are cautiously optimistic."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note Malaysia’s 4Q25 GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year, the fastest since 4Q22, lifting full-year 2025 growth to 5.2%. They project real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 as base effects and external uncertainties weigh, though domestic demand, investment, tourism and AI-related activity are expected to keep overall expansion solid.

Domestic demand cushions slower 2026 GDP

"Going forward, we expect real GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (from 5.2% in 2025, MOF est: 4.0%-4.5%) amid persistent external uncertainties and base effects."

"Domestic demand should remain the key anchor, supported by continued government policy measures, the rollout of catalytic initiatives under national master plans, the realisation of high approved investments, stronger tourism flows in conjunction with Visit Malaysia Year 2026, and ongoing momentum from the AI boom."

"For the entire year of 2025, the current account surplus rose to MYR31.8bn or 1.6% of GDP (2024: +MYR27.7bn or 1.4%). Backed by an expected improvement in tourist activities, modest goods export growth, and continued ICT-related services exports, we project the current account surplus to reach MYR38.0bn or 1.8% of GDP in 2026 (MOF est: +MYR23.2bn or 1.1%)."

"Externally, geopolitical risks have resurfaced while US President Trump revived targeted tariff measures in mid-Jan, announcing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran (on 12 Jan) and a 25% levy on certain advanced computing chips (on 14 Jan). Although the US Supreme Court has postponed its ruling, the one-year pause in US–China tariff escalation until Nov 2026 provides temporary stability and supports ongoing supply-chain diversification."

"This is expected to continuously offer uneven but positive spillovers to Malaysia’s trade outlook."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Silver climbs to $77.20 after softer US CPI boosts expectations of Fed easing.
• Technicals point to consolidation, with resistance near the 50-day SMA around $79.00.
• Break below $75.00 exposes $74.01 and $70.00, while reclaiming $80.00 revives bullish momentum.  

Silver (XAG/USD) price advances on Friday, bouncing off daily lows around $74 and posting gains of over 2.50%, yet it is poised to end the week on a negative note. A softer-than-expected US inflation report pushed the white metal higher, and it trades at $77.20 a troy ounce ahead of the weekend.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver is down 0.85% in the week, after beginning the week at around $80.00. Nevertheless, US stocks plunged on Thursday, pushing XAG downward, which has recently moved in sympathy with equities.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the precious metal is poised to trade sideways, capped on the upside by the 50-day SMA at $79.08 and the floor level is seen at $64.41 where the 100-day SMA lies.

If XAG/USD dives below $75.00, the first support would be the February 13 low of $74.01. Once cleared, the next stop would be the $70.00 figure, ahead of the 100-day SMA.

On the upside, if XAG/USD reclaims $80.00, the first resistance would be the December 29 high at $83.75, ahead of the February 11 high at $86.30.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily