Forex News
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CNH slipped to 6.7865 before rebounding, with oversold conditions suggesting limited further downside and an intraday 6.7860–6.7990 range. On a 1–3 week view, the earlier bullish bias has ended after a break below 6.7900, with the pair now expected to range between 6.7750 and 6.8080. Medium term, a recovery requires a break above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar-Yuan shifts from uptrend to consolidation
"24-HOUR VIEW: We expected USD to “trade in a range between 6.7940 and 6.8080” yesterday. Our view was incorrect, as it dropped to 6.7865, rebounding from the low to close at 6.7911 (-0.14%). The rebound from oversold conditions suggests USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, we expect USD to trade between 6.7860 and 6.7990."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive USD view from the middle of last month, we highlighted on Monday (29 Jun, spot at 6.8030) that “while upward momentum has eased, as long as the ‘strong support’ level at 6.7900 is not breached, there is still a chance for USD to head toward 6.8300.” USD fell and broke below 6.7900 yesterday (low was 6.7865). Upward momentum has faded, and USD strength has come to an end. From here, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 6.7750 and 6.8080."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver remains trapped within the $55.70-$60.00 range for the fifth day.
- RSI turns higher but stays bearish, hinting at a corrective bounce.
- Break above $60 exposes 200-day SMA and $70 resistance.
Silver (XAG/USD) price extended its gains for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, up by over 1.25%, yet it remains below the $60.00 figure, consolidating near the year’s low.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows Silver trading within the $55.70-$60.00 range over the last five straight days, poised for further sideways trading. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bearish despite aiming upwards. This suggests that the white metal could be set for a bounce to challenge the top of the trading range.
If XAG/USD rises above $60.00, it clears the path to test the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69.80 and the $70.00 milestone. On further strength, buyers can test $71.56, the June 17 daily peak.
On the flip side, if Silver tumbles below the year-to-date (YTD) low of $55.70, the next support would be the November 25, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of the psychological $50.00 mark.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported that private analysts reduced their inflation expectations for the end of 2026 and updated estimates for economic growth, the exchange rate and the interbank lending rate.
Headline inflation is expected at 4.20%, down from 4.35% in the previous poll, while core figures are expected to dip from 4.22% to 4.18%.
Regarding economic growth, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast at 1.10%, unchanged from the previous poll. For 2027, the projections remained unchanged at 1.80%.
The USD/MXN pair exchange rate is expected to end at 17.95 this year, up from 17.85, and for 2027 is projected to remain steady at 18.50.
For the interbank lending rate, the rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.50% for the rest of the year and in 2027.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, July 2:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near the 101.40 area, supported by resilient manufacturing activity and elevated long-term Treasury yields. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3 in June from 54.0 in May, missing expectations but staying above the 50.0 expansion line. New Orders eased to 56.0, while the Prices Paid Index fell to 73.0 from 82.1, suggesting that input prices cooled but remained elevated.
ADP private payrolls came in below expectations at 98,000 in June, slowing from May’s 122,000 gain. The softer labor market reading limited the Greenback’s upside and added caution before the official US jobs report, which is expected to show a slower pace of hiring while the Unemployment Rate remains near 4.3%.
On the Federal Reserve (Fed) side, Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the 2% inflation target and said the Fed would not tolerate inflation staying above target, although he avoided giving direct guidance on the July decision.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | -0.12% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | -0.50% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -0.01% | -0.29% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.48% | 0.21% | 0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.37% | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.24% | -0.26% | -0.12% | 0.24% | -0.04% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | 0.00% | -0.48% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.11% | 0.29% | -0.21% | -0.10% | 0.04% | 0.29% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | 0.27% | -0.25% | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.25% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD remained under pressure near the 1.1380 area as investors weighed softer Eurozone inflation against comments from European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Eurozone annual HICP inflation fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, below expectations of 3.0%, while core inflation also eased to 2.4% from 2.6%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation and growth risks in the Eurozone are now more balanced after the recent decline in energy prices. ECB policymaker Alexander Demarco also warned that the central bank should not rush into another rate hike, noting that lower energy prices could help stabilize inflation expectations.
GBP/USD traded around the 1.3280 area, holding cautiously as traders digested comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. On Tuesday, Bailey said the BoE has time to judge the pass-through of higher energy prices to the United Kingdom (UK) economy, while warning that UK inflation could still rise to 3.2% later this year.
USD/JPY hovered near 162.50, unchanged. Softer ADP data helped limit further upside in the US Dollar. Investors also remain alert for possible warnings of Japanese intervention as the Yen trades near multi-decade lows.
AUD/USD fell toward the 0.6890 area as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled against a firmer Greenback. The Aussie remains vulnerable ahead of Thursday’s Australian Trade Balance data, with investors watching whether exports can continue to support the currency.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil dropped toward a three-month low near the $68.00 area as easing supply concerns weighed on energy prices. Optimism around US-Iran talks eased fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while markets also assessed expectations that OPEC+ could raise output targets.
Gold rebounded toward the $4,050 area after softer ADP employment data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped reduce some inflation-risk concerns.
Societe Generale analysts observe that USD/KRW stalled after meeting interim resistance around 1561 in June and now looks set to trade within a range. They see limited evidence of a large decline, with 1530 as initial support on pullbacks. A break above 1561 would signal trend resumption, targeting projections near 1573/1580.
Watching 1561 and 1530 levels
"USD/KRW has encountered interim resistance around 1561 in June."
"The up move has stalled after this test, and the pair may evolve within a range."
"Signals of a large decline are not yet visible."
"If a short-term pullback develops, the recent pivot low of 1530 could be the first layer of support."
"A cross beyond 1561 may lead to a resumption of the uptrend."
"The next projections could be located at 1573/1580."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Trump’s USMCA remarks revive the trade-risk premium for the Mexican Peso.
- Mexico PMI returns to expansion, but treaty fears dominate.
- NFP could reinforce Fed hike bets and USD/MXN upside.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) loses ground versus the Greenback on Wednesday amid growing speculation about the cancellation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed in 2020, alongside overall US Dollar (USD) strength. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair trades at 17.55, up 0.37%.
USD/MXN surges as USMCA uncertainty and Dollar strength collide
Newswires reported that US President Donald Trump said he doesn’t want to extend the USMCA, and the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer added that more time is needed to fix problems with the trade agreement.
Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the US opted not to extend the pact and that the treaty will undergo annual review for 10 years.
On Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum sent a letter to extend the 32-year-old free trade zone for another 16 years, which could happen if all three countries agreed on an extension of its current terms.
Given the backdrop, USD/MXN has aimed higher after bouncing off daily lows around 17.49, trading at current spot prices.
Mexico’s economic docket featured the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which came at 51.3 in June, up from 49.6 in May.
In the US, auto industry officials are calling for a swift resolution that restores duty-free trade in vehicles and parts between the US, Canada and Mexico. They argue that tariffs leave them at a disadvantage compared to car makers in Japan and South Korea.
US data was mixed, with the June ADP Employment Change at 98K, below May’s 122K and the forecast of 113K. The US Challenger Job Cuts in June decreased 53% from 97,006 to 45,849. Layoffs slowed in June due to seasonal factors, with employers announcing 443,604 job cuts, 40% less than last year.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped a tad to 53.3 in June, below the expected 54, while the Prices Paid Index fell to 73 from 82.1, indicating lower inflation.
What can we expect for USD/MXN?
Traders' eyes shift to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. If the data reaffirms the US labor market's strength, it will further support the Federal Reserve’s worries about high inflation. Hence, further rate hikes are expected, which would reduce the interest rate differential between the two countries.
In that outcome, further USD/MXN upside is expected. Otherwise, further consolidation within the 17.00-17.50 range is expected for the foreseeable future.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.55, extending its recovery above the clustered simple moving average (SMA) support around 17.36 and the previously broken long-term downtrend line, which now reinforces the underlying bid. The near-term bias stays constructive while the pair holds over these reclaimed supports, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.18 hinting at steady, but not overstretched, bullish momentum as price approaches a fresh test of the shorter-term descending resistance line derived from 18.17.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with that shorter-term downward-sloping trend line around 17.62, and a clean break above this barrier would open the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen near the current pivot area around 17.55, ahead of the 50-day SMA support at roughly 17.36, while the longer-term trend-line break level near 16.11 marks a deeper structural floor if a broader pullback unfolds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that Canada’s economy remains soft, while inflation is still running clearly above target.
Key takeaways:
In Canada, the economy is soft.
Inflation clearly above target.
We are at the bottom end of neutral range, about the right level to keep inflation contained.
We’ve got to be humble amid uncertainty.
If situation changes, we are prepared to take action.”
AI investment in the US leads to headwinds and competitive pressure.
Open question when AI-driven disinflation kicks in.
In the short term, we saw an increase in computer prices.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.31% | 0.14% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.26% | -0.39% | -0.19% | -0.06% | -0.27% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.26% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.39% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.19% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.13% | -0.09% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.31% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.30% | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | 0.27% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | 0.09% | -0.18% | -0.28% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Thailand update says May data show broadly stable economic conditions, with exports still supported by global electronics demand but facing risks from US trade policy and regional manufacturing weakness. The Bank of Thailand sees contained inflation pressures and little need to alter policy soon, while USD/THB is slightly lower even as the Baht remains down 5.2% year-to-date.
Exports steady as policy stance unchanged
"May exports moderated to 9.8% yoy vs 23.2% previously and were up 16.9% in the first five months of 2026. Imports eased to 34.5% yoy vs 44.0% previously, aided by the lower oil import bill due to the drop in oil prices. Imports are up nearly 36% year-to-date. The trade deficit narrowed to USD2.6bn from USD6.7bn previously, which also saw a smaller current account deficit of USD6.4bn from USD7.8bn previously."
"Looking ahead, Thailand's export sector should continue to benefit from resilient global electronics demand, although heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, geopolitical developments, and weaker regional manufacturing activity could temper momentum in the second half of the year."
"The latest Bank of Thailand (BoT) assessment on the state of the economy expressed that the economy remained broadly stable in May, with modest improvements in domestic demand offsetting softer external trade."
"As such, there are few hints that BoT will alter policy anytime soon. The key risks highlighted were elevated living costs, geopolitical risks, US trade policy, and El Niño, which may push up food prices."
"Headline inflation remained elevated but stayed broadly stable at 2.8% yoy in May. Core inflation was just modestly higher at 0.9% yoy as firms gradually passed through higher input costs. BoT noted that inflation pressures remain contained, with few signs of broad-based price increases."
"Year-to-date, THB is down 5.2% vs USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Michael Wan at MUFG reports that China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data surprised on the upside, easing fears of imminent policy easing. He notes that a recent PBOC overnight reverse repo carried a lower-than-expected coupon, but argues that China’s operational monetary policy target will not immediately shift to the overnight rate, with the 7‑day reverse repo rate remaining the key gauge.
Stronger PMIs temper easing fears
"In Asia, China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers came in somewhat stronger than expected, and this helped to allay some initial concerns around imminent easing."
"This was especially as the PBOC’s recent overnight reverse repo operations were reported to have included a coupon below market expectations at 1.25% (versus most analysts thinking of 1.3%-1.4%)."
"Overall, we don’t think that the operational target of monetary policy in China will change immediately to the overnight rate, with the 7-day reverse repo rate still the key metric to watch for to determine the monetary policy stance."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD is consolidating after Monday’s dip, with intraday momentum flat and the pair expected to hold a narrow 1.2925–1.2955 band. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank keeps a neutral stance, projecting a broader 1.2870–1.2970 range. Longer term, a break above 1.3000 could target the November 2025 high at 1.3095.
Dollar-Singapore Dollar holds tight range
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD fell to a low of 1.2922 on Monday. When it was at 1.2930 yesterday, we highlighted that “the decline did not result in any clear increase in downward momentum, and instead of continuing to decline today, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 1.2920 and 1.2950.” We were not wrong, as USD subsequently traded within a range of 1.2924/1.2952, closing largely unchanged at 1.2930 (+0.03%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect USD to trade between 1.2925 and 1.2955"
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (30 Jun, spot at 1.2930), we revised our USD view from positive to neutral. We highlighted that “upward momentum has faded,” and we indicated that “for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a range between 1.2870 and 1.2970.” There is no change in our view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
