Forex News
UOB economist Jester Koh highlights a strong rebound in Singapore’s Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX), led by electronics and pharmaceuticals, with petrochemicals slightly softer. Koh argues that K-shaped export growth will likely persist, as AI-related electronics and semiconductors stay resilient while non-electronics exports face supply disruptions and higher energy prices, making it premature to call a peak in the tech cycle.
Electronics strength offsets non-electronics drag
"The K-shaped NODX growth is expected to persist in the months ahead, driven by sustained outperformance in the electronics/semiconductor segment amid strong AI-related demand and ongoing agentic rollout by firms."
"While there are signs of an emerging peak in the electronics/semiconductor cycle—[1] Taiwan’s tech exports to the US have likely already peaked (on a 3mma y/y basis), and [2] South Korea’s semiconductor exports moderated slightly in Apr in nominal terms but remained strong at over US$30bn—we believe it is still too premature to call for one."
"This reflects still-robust AI-related demand and the diffusion of AI applications into consumer electronics."
"In contrast, non-electronics exports may weaken, reflecting supply shortages in the chemicals segment and a surge in energy prices alongside broader spillovers, weighing on external demand."
"This likely reflects some element of front-loading in response to the US’s announced 100% tariffs (with deals and exemptions) on selected patented pharmaceuticals and their associated ingredients, scheduled to take effect on 31 Jul 2026 for certain large companies and 29 Sep 2026 for smaller firms."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold rebounds from sub-$4,500 lows as US Dollar eases.
- Fed hike bets keep traders cautious following hot inflation data last week.
- Lower Oil prices weaken the Greenback amid Iran sanctions headlines.
Gold (XAU/USD) price steadies on Monday after reaching a daily low beneath $4,500, as the US Dollar is on the back foot amid fears that the energy shock spurred by the Middle East conflict could trigger a second wave of inflation. Consequently, global bond yields—which are falling in the day—remain near their highest levels of the year.
XAU/USD stabilizes as softer Dollar offsets elevated Treasury yields
The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,541 flat, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, drops 0.20% to 99.06.
Sentiment remains mixed, with US equities swinging between positive/negative in the day. The US 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level in nearly two years, at 4.631%, before turning flat at 4.595%, a tailwind for Gold prices.
Money markets had begun to price in a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates in December 2026, rather than ease policy, according to Prime Terminal data.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said the clock is ticking for Iran, while Bloomberg reported that Washington agreed to lift sanctions on Iranian Oil during the negotiation period, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices lower. Consequently, the Greenback turned negative on the day due to its positive correlation with Oil prices.
The US economic docket is absent on Monday, yet traders continue to digest hot inflation data revealed last week. This week, the schedule will feature the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, housing data, the last FOMC meeting minutes, Initial Jobless Claims, Flash PMIs, speeches by Federal Reserve officials and Kevin Warsh sworn in as the Fed Chair at the White House, according to Fox Business reports.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold consolidates near $4,550, poised for further downside
Gold continues to consolidate around $4,550 after diving to a seven-week low of $4,480. Momentum remains bearish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stalled, opening the door for XAU to reclaim the $4,500 mark.
On the upside, the next area of interest would be the $4,600 mark. A breach of the latter will expose a resistance trendline, drawn from around mid-March’s high, at around $4,615-$4,625, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,647. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $4,700 and the 50-day SMA at $,4716.
Downwards, XAU/USD first support is the $4,600? mark. Below this area, the next support would be the psychological $4,550 area ahead of the May 4 daily low of $4,500, followed by the day’s low of $4,481.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman on Friday at the White House, a White House official told CNBC on Monday.
Last week, Warsh was voted by the US Senate to succeed the current temporary Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for a four-year period, beginning this Friday.
Warsh will face a tough economic environment and political pressure from Trump, who, since the beginning of his second presidency, has pushed for lowering interest rates, even though the disinflation process has reversed course, according to the latest data.
Last week's releases showed the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% YoY in April and the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 6%. Therefore, money markets had priced in no interest rate cuts; instead, they’re expecting a rate hike towards the end of the year, according to LSEG data.
(This story was corrected on May 18 at 17:45 GMT to say that US CPI rose 3.8% in April, not 3.7%.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Headlines on the US-Iran conflict emerged on Monday, with Axios reporting that Iran’s last proposal to the US is seen by the White House as “insufficient for a deal,” according to a Senior US official.
However, the US accepted lifting Iran’s Oil sanctions, according to a source close to the negotiation team, Iranian news agency Tasnim reported. Waving the sanctions means a “temporary lifting” of the sanctions, though Tehran insists on the removal of all sanctions on Iran, which must be a part of the US commitments.
WTI reaction
Oil prices turned positive for the day, up 1.79% to $102.76 per barrel, on news headlines.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Australian Dollar advances against the US Dollar as the Greenback pulls back on Monday.
- Hopes of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran improve market sentiment.
- Weak Chinese economic data continue to limit the upside potential for the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD trades around 0.7160 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) corrects lower after its recent rebound. Improved market sentiment, driven by renewed hopes for diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, is reducing demand for safe-haven assets and weighing on the Greenback.
The US Dollar weakens against several major peers after comments from a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that discussions regarding a peace proposal remain ongoing. This relative easing in geopolitical tensions supports risk-sensitive currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, trades lower after failing to hold onto earlier gains. Markets also remain focused on developments in the Middle East following recent drone attacks reported in the region, while comments from US President Donald Trump continue to keep investors cautious.
However, the Aussie’s rebound remains limited by the latest Chinese economic data, which renewed concerns over slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s Retail Sales increased by only 0.2% YoY in April, well below market expectations of 2%, while Industrial Production slowed to 4.1%, missing the 5.9% consensus forecast. These figures weaken the outlook for Chinese growth, a negative factor for the Australian Dollar due to Australia’s strong trade ties with China.
Investors are now turning their attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes and Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia, which are scheduled for release on Tuesday.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | -0.77% | 0.06% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.48% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | -0.55% | 0.31% | 0.19% | 0.09% | -0.25% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.77% | 0.55% | 0.87% | 0.73% | 0.64% | 0.29% | 0.56% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.31% | -0.87% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.60% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.19% | -0.73% | 0.16% | -0.08% | -0.44% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | -0.09% | -0.64% | 0.22% | 0.08% | -0.34% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.48% | 0.25% | -0.29% | 0.60% | 0.44% | 0.34% | 0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | -0.01% | -0.56% | 0.32% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- DJIA futures recovered from session lows above 49,000 to trade close to Friday's closing levels by mid-afternoon.
- Memory chip stocks led declines after Seagate said new factories would "take too long" to meet demand.
- Brent crude held above $109 a barrel as US-Iran peace negotiations remained deadlocked.
- Thursday's flash Purchasing Managers Index releases are the only high-impact US data this week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures clawed back from a weekend-driven plunge on Monday, recovering from session lows above 49,000 to trade close to Friday's closing levels by mid-afternoon. The bounce came despite a backdrop of higher Oil prices, elevated sovereign bond yields, and unresolved US-Iran tensions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which both hit fresh record highs last week before Friday's sharp pullback, attempted similar recoveries but remained capped well below their recent peaks. Friday's selloff, driven by a global spike in long-end bond yields, has left investors more cautious heading into a relatively light week of US economic data, with Thursday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) releases the only meaningful high-impact print on the calendar.
Memory chips lead the early selling
Memory chip stocks led Monday's declines after Seagate (STX) tumbled 7% following comments from its CEO at a JPMorgan conference that new factories would "take too long" to come online. The remark exacerbated concerns that the memory chip industry doesn't have the capacity to meet soaring demand, pulling peer Micron (MU) down 2%. The Nasdaq-100 has been particularly vulnerable to the yield-driven repricing, with the index dropping 1.5% on Friday for its worst one-day performance since late March. Tech leadership, which had driven the broader market to fresh records last week, is now being tested by both rate dynamics and stock-specific supply concerns.
Oil and global yields keep pressure on
Oil prices extended gains as the US-Iran standoff continued to dominate the energy market. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.5% to trade above $105 a barrel, while Brent crude added 0.5% to hold near $109. The persistent bid in crude is reinforcing the inflation narrative, with the 30-year US Treasury yield hitting its highest level in around a year on Friday before holding largely steady on Monday. Long-end yields globally have moved in tandem, with the UK 30-year gilt at levels not seen since the late 1990s and long-dated Japanese government bonds also under pressure. The combination of higher Oil and higher yields is squeezing valuations in long-duration sectors, with mega-cap tech the most obvious casualty.
Iran tensions keep the geopolitical risk premium intact
US President Donald Trump kept the geopolitical temperature high on Sunday, warning that Iran had to "get moving" or "there won't be anything left." Peace negotiations remain deadlocked, with Axios reporting that Iran has submitted an updated peace proposal that the US still considers inadequate. The standoff has kept Oil prices supported and the Strait of Hormuz risk premium intact. Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs Investments, told CNBC that elevated Oil prices represent a "watershed" issue that will be hard to offset, adding that stocks could remain stuck in a heavy range trade without positive developments out of the Middle East.
Thursday PMIs the main event in a quiet data week
The US economic data calendar is unusually light this week, leaving Thursday's flash PMI releases as the only meaningful catalyst for the broader macro tape. Manufacturing PMI consensus sits at 53.8 against a 54.5 prior, while Services PMI is expected at 51.3 versus 51 prior. The Composite reading will be closely watched as a real-time gauge of whether the energy-driven inflation pass-through is starting to weigh on activity. Outside of the PMIs, traders will track a steady stream of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers including Christopher Waller on both Tuesday and Friday, plus the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday. Friday's University of Michigan (UoM) consumer survey will draw attention for its one-year and five-year inflation expectations components, with last week's hot inflation data already making near-term Fed rate cuts a long shot.
Dow Jones 15-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- USD/JPY climbs ahead of Japan’s preliminary Q1 flash GDP release.
- Japan’s Kihara says authorities are monitoring market moves and long-term yields with a “very high sense of urgency.”
- Elevated US Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s policy outlook continue weighing on the Japanese Yen.
The USD/JPY pair rises toward the 158.90 region as traders position ahead of Japan’s Q1 GDP release.
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara stated that authorities are watching financial-market developments, including long-term interest rates, with a “very high sense of urgency.” His comments come as Japanese government bond yields remain elevated, increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could face additional pressure to normalize policy further if inflation and wage trends remain firm.
Market participants are now turning their attention to Japan’s preliminary Q1 flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which will be released on the opening of the Asian session, and could provide fresh clues regarding the strength of the domestic economy and the BoJ’s future policy path.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.90 with a bullish near-term bias, holding above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.43 and the 100-period SMA at 157.90. The pair is pressing into overhead supply, with only the nearby horizontal barrier at 158.97 capping further gains for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 74 sits in overbought territory, hinting at stretched but still strong upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is layered just below the market, with successive horizontal levels at 158.83, 158.69 and 158.62 helping to cushion pullbacks. A deeper retreat would likely look toward the rising 20-period SMA at 158.43 ahead of the 100-period SMA at 157.90, which together reinforce the broader bullish structure as long as they continue to hold beneath price.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
ING’s Lynn Song highlights that China’s April data showed broad-based weakness in domestic activity, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all disappointing. Despite a strong first quarter and resilient exports keeping growth targets in sight, the sharper April deterioration raises downside risks. At the same time, rising PPI and non-food inflation complicate stimulus decisions for policymakers.
Second quarter growth slows as prices rise
"Disappointing April economic activity suggests growth will decelerate in the second quarter, after the first quarter comfortably beat expectations. A strong first quarter and continued resilience in exports suggest that China remains on track to meet its growth targets. But the sharper-than-expected deterioration in April's data highlights downside risks and should be seen as a warning sign that additional stimulus might be needed to stabilise the domestic side of the economy."
"On the other hand, we see signs that reflation momentum is strengthening in China. PPI inflation and non-food inflation just hit 45-month highs, with further price pressures likely still ahead. Luckily for China, this rising inflation backdrop stems from a near-deflationary environment over the past few years."
"Thus, the People’s Bank of China doesn't face the rate hike pressure that many global central banks are now facing."
"Nonetheless, this combination of downside growth risks and upside inflation risks highlights the dilemma for policymakers. We've seen limited urgency for stimulus so far this year, but if data continue to deteriorate, this could change soon."
"Investment appetite has been very soft in the post-pandemic years. One element behind this is the impact of inflationary expectations. It at least is expected to turn around this year, though it will take some time before it's reflected in markets."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD loses ground on Monday as the US Dollar weakens amid improving market sentiment.
- Ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran support risk appetite and reduce demand for the Greenback.
- Investors now await Canadian inflation data and the FOMC minutes later this week.
USD/CAD trades around 1.3740 on Monday at the time of writing, down modestly by 0.05% on the day. The pullback in the US Dollar (USD) against its major peers is weighing on the pair after signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The US Dollar weakens following comments from a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, who confirmed that discussions with the United States (US) are continuing through Pakistani mediators. According to the same source, Tehran remains focused on de-escalating the conflict, while technical discussions with Oman regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz have also taken place.
This improvement in market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets such as the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, falls toward 99.10 after reaching an intraday high near 99.40 earlier in the day.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also finding mild support after Oil prices stabilized, despite a correction in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil from its recent May highs. As Canada remains a major Oil exporter, energy prices continue to have a significant influence on the Canadian currency.
With Canadian markets closed on Monday for Victoria Day, trading volumes remain relatively thin. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming key economic releases. Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April will be released on Tuesday and could influence expectations regarding the Bank of Canada (BoC).
On the US side, traders will also focus on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday, as markets look for further clues about the future path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.53% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.47% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | -0.36% | 0.26% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | 0.36% | 0.62% | 0.46% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.26% | -0.62% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.57% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.46% | 0.16% | -0.13% | -0.40% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.04% | -0.33% | 0.28% | 0.13% | -0.25% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.47% | 0.29% | -0.07% | 0.57% | 0.40% | 0.25% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.04% | -0.32% | 0.30% | 0.14% | -0.02% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the global bond selloff is approaching levels where borrowing costs exceed nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The United Kingdom (UK) has already entered this ‘danger zone’, with 10-year gilt yields above both current and decade-average nominal growth. Haddad warns that deteriorating UK fiscal credibility and rising political uncertainty can further undermine the British Pound (GBP).
Gilt yields and politics weigh on Pound
"The ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade remains the dominant market driver because there is no clear endgame in sight while the buffer from global oil inventories is shrinking fast."
"The global bond market selloff is edging towards dangerous territory where borrowing costs exceed nominal GDP growth."
"The UK has already crossed that danger zone, with 10-year gilt yields above both UK Q1 nominal GDP growth and the average pace of nominal growth over the past decade."
"Worsening UK fiscal credibility, alongside mounting political uncertainty, can further undermine GBP."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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