Forex News
- Dow Jones futures struggle as US-Iran friction raises oil supply concerns, boosting inflation fears.
- Iran ruled out negotiating with President Trump, stating talks will remain frozen until his term ends in 2029.
- Investors await key inflation data and earnings reports from Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer.
Dow Jones futures decline by 0.11% to trade around 54,000 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are steady around 7,770 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.12%, trading near 29,770.
US stock futures are mixed as traders adopt a cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Rising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions have fueled inflation fears, leading to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise interest rates sooner than expected, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September have climbed to nearly 52%, up from 44.4% just a day prior.
Iran has explicitly ruled out any future negotiations with US President Donald Trump. Citing Iranian news outlets and a post on X by Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reports indicate that Tehran intends to wait until the current US presidential term ends on January 20, 2029, before considering a return to the bargaining table. "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends," Shakeri stated.
Chipmakers retreat as energy and health care cushion US equity pullback
Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank notes that the broader US equity complex softened, with the NASDAQ (-0.32%) and Russell 2000 (-0.56%) also losing ground. They highlight that “energy (+4.63%) and health care (+1.68%) sectors helped limit the S&P 500’s decline,” even as the tech space came under renewed pressure. Leading the losses were chipmakers, with Deutsche Bank pointing out that “the Philly semi index dropping -2.94% after its +9.25% rebound last week” marked a sharp reversal for the sector.
Looking ahead, investors are closely monitoring upcoming inflation data scheduled for release this week to better gauge the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Meanwhile, on the corporate front, market participants are keeping an eye on earnings reports due today from key companies, including Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- The US Dollar Index gains further to near 99.90 amid rising Oil prices.
- Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets due to weakness in the US labor market.
- Investors shift their focus to the US CPI data, which will be released on Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) extends its Monday recovery move on Tuesday, as rising Oil prices due to prolonged fears of energy supply disruption keep global inflation expectations de-anchored.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.90.
Meanwhile, fears of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike have eased as the latest United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July revealed a reduction in the overall labor force and a downward revision in labor additions figures of previous months.
Strategists at ING say the latest US labor market data has delivered “clearly dovish and dollar-negative” signals, reinforcing their conviction that the Fed is done hiking. They highlight that, as James Knightley notes, “the -20k payroll print was not the only concern,” with “more than 100k of downward revisions” leaving “average payroll growth at just 20k over the past three months, with health and social care still doing most of the heavy lifting.”
Against that backdrop, ING argues that “our dovish Fed call is strengthening, and so is our bearish bias on the Dollar.” They point out that “despite Friday’s repricing, 11bp are still priced in for September, 28bp for December and 40bp for April,” and conclude that “there remains ample room for dovish repricing to harm the Dollar if we are right about the Fed.”
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the September meeting are 48.3%, up from 30.4% seen a month ago.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, the Dollar Index DXY trades at 99.87, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.32. The index has retreated from earlier highs, and the EMA now acts as immediate overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 shows subdued momentum, hinting at a lack of strong buying interest on current dips.
On the topside, the first hurdle is the 20-day EMA at 100.32, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. On the downside, the US Dollar index could slide towards 99.00 and the May 29 low at 98.75 if it fails to hold Friday's low at 99.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as oil prices extend the advance.
- US President Trump demands reparations for the war, as Iran did the same.
- Investors await the CPI data for July from both India and the US.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a cautious note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair rises further to near 95.40 as surging oil prices due to escalating fears of a prolonged global supply disruption have weakened the Indian currency.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 0.45% higher to near Rs. 7,835, closer to its weekly high.
Trump also demands compensation for war damages
On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump also demanded compensation for war casualties in the Middle East from Iran, through a post on Truth Social, in a direct answer to Iran's own call for compensation, as a key condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.
US President Trump added that Iran should be held "responsible for the damages and death" caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza.
Over the weekend, Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the council, set out six conditions for the Hormuz reopening.
Both sides demanding compensation for war damages have heightened uncertainty over the truce in the near term, boosting oil prices.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.
India-US CPI data in focus
This week, the major trigger for the Indian Rupee and the US Dollar will be respective Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July from their economies, which will be released on Wednesday.
India inflation holds steady as DBS flags mixed food trends and benign core
Economists at DBS Group Research note that key “inflation and trade numbers are due in the second week of August,” with “headline inflation in July… largely steady at 4.4% YoY vs June.” They point out that “high frequency data on food staples point to a rise in pulses, sugar, milk and edible oils, while vegetables have stabilized,” adding that “a catch-up in rainfall in July has helped boost sowing activity.” On the price side, DBS highlights that “adjustments in domestic retail fuel products (non-subsidized LPG was up 10% YoY in July) are also likely to reflect in the utilities and fuel segments.” Even so, they expect underlying pressures to remain contained, with “core readings… benign at sub-4% in July, helped also by moderation in precious metals in the period.”
In the US, both headline and core CPI are expected to have cooled down, with figures seen arriving lower at 3.4% and 2.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.
Signs of US inflationary pressures cooling down would ease fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes further. This week, financial markets have rolled back hawkish Fed after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which showed a reduction in the overall labor force against estimates of a fresh addition of 80K workers.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR wobbles near 60-day EMA
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.40. The pair holds above the 60-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.26, keeping a modest bullish near-term bias as price respects this dynamic support zone.
Momentum is less conclusive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 47, hinting at a consolidative tone rather than strong directional conviction, but the preservation of levels above the EMA favors mild upside while this floor holds.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 60-day EMA at 95.26, followed by the June 26 low at 94.15. Looking up, the pair might attempt to revisit the all-time high at 97.10 if it manages a decisive recovery above 96.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose describes recent Forint weakness as a high-beta correction that only partly erases post-election outperformance. He expects EUR/HUF to recover toward 350–355 if global risk sentiment improves, but warns that accelerating core inflation and narrowing real interest rates as MNB cuts will later weigh on HUF, limiting the durability of any interim recovery.
High-beta correction then structural headwinds
"The forint has corrected weaker recently through the global market risk-off. This reflects its high-beta status within the eastern European peer group."
"This near-term correction should not be over-interpreted as the forint has only given up a fraction of its outperformance since the April election, which had brought regime change. The regime-change story itself has not disappointed; Tisza’s ratings remain strong, and Peter Magyar is moving ahead with reforms on multiple fronts."
"If the global risk backdrop were to ease, the forint would recover a part of its losses, with EUR/HUF moving back to the 350-355 range. Later, however, the familiar constraints and a falling real interest rate will weigh down on the exchange rate."
"July CPI data showed underlying core inflation measures accelerating."
"Hungary’s real interest rate is likely to narrow as MNB cuts rates and as underlying inflation momentum stays elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold attracts heavy selling following an intraday move up to over a two-month high on Tuesday.
- Higher oil prices keep Fed hike bets on the table, driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
- Traders look to the latest US inflation figures and geopolitical developments for further cues.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday retracement slide from the highest level since June 5 and drops to a fresh daily low, near the $4,350 area during the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Despite Friday's disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs by the year-end amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices. This tends to undermine the non-yielding bullion and prompts traders to take some profits off the table, especially after a strong rally over the past week or so.
Meanwhile, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with US President Donald Trump and said that it will wait until his term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks, dampening hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains choked due to the Iran-backed Houthis' blockade against Saudi Arabia. This led to the overnight sharp rise in crude oil prices and fueled inflation fears, underpinning prospects for a more hawkish Fed.
The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which is seen lending support to the USD and exerting pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price.
Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets and contribute to producing trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
An intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June suggested that buyers retain control. Momentum indicators also backed the constructive structure. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below overbought territory at 68.89, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is expanding in positive territory. This, in turn, suggests persistent upside pressure while the Gold price remains capped beneath the 200-day SMA at $4,498.
That said, a deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% retracement at $4,297 and then the 23.6% level at $4,162, ahead of the structural floor near $3,945. On the top side, the $4,400 mark, followed by the daily swing high, near $4,435 could act as immediate hurdles ahead of the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,514.92. A break above would open the way toward the 78.6% retracement at $4,669 and the cycle high around $4,866.98.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- NZD/USD weakens as higher energy prices and Treasury yields stoked fears of early Fed rate hikes.
- Iran ruled out negotiations with President Donald Trump, choosing to wait until his term ends in 2029.
- Rising oil prices and surging Q2 inflation data sparked caution ahead of the RBNZ's September policy meeting.
NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5880 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains on increased safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Iran ruled out any future negotiations with United States (US) President Donald Trump, according to Iranian outlets and a X post by an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Headlines note that Tehran will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks. "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends," Majid Shakeri, adviser to Ghalibaf, said
This geopolitical tension has driven a sharp rally in crude oil, which in turn has pushed US Treasury yields higher. Concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation data this week to gauge the Fed's next move, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September have climbed nearly 52%, up from 44.4% just a day prior.
Higher oil and rate hike bets weigh on global sovereign bonds
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the combination of rising energy prices and renewed policy tightening concerns left fixed income markets under pressure, noting that “that backdrop of higher oil prices and rate hike speculation meant it was a tricky session for sovereign bonds around the world.”
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that the central bank will likely need to execute multiple rate hikes to get broad-based inflation under control. Speaking with Yahoo Finance, Hammack, who notably dissented at the July meeting in favor of an immediate hike, argued that current policy remains insufficiently restrictive. She highlighted the upcoming Consumer Price Index report as a pivotal test that will dictate the Fed's trajectory moving forward.
Rising oil prices have sparked fresh debate on how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might approach its September policy meeting. Markets are exercising caution ahead of New Zealand’s third-quarter inflation expectation figures, particularly after the Q2 data showed an unexpected acceleration.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has called an urgent, in-person caucus meeting for Wednesday morning to confront growing speculation surrounding his leadership. Following a turbulent week marked by reports of MPs receiving calls about a potential leadership challenge, Luxon is acting decisively to suppress internal dissent before it metastasizes into a campaign-defining issue for the National Party.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- USD/JPY attracts some buyers following an intraday dip to sub-159.00 levels on Tuesday.
- Japan’s fiscal concerns and the wide US-Japan rate gap continue to undermine the JPY.
- Geopolitical tensions, inflation fears and Fed-hike bets support the USD and spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair reverses an intraday dip to sub-159.00 levels and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early part of the European session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.25-159.30 region, near a one-and-a-half-week top set on Monday, and seem poised to build on the recent solid recovery from the lowest level since early May.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has surrendered a substantial portion of its recent joint US-Japan intervention-led recovery registered last week amid concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal condition. In fact, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government fiscal year 2026 budget totals a record ¥122.3 trillion. Moreover, the wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies, including the US, keeps the so-called carry trade active and continues to weigh on the JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
The initial market reaction to Friday's disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report fades rather quickly amid expectations that inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, oil prices climbed to a one-and-a-half-week high amid fading hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and restricted traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This keeps bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 firmly on the table and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback amid the US-Iran standoff.
Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the latest US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI)and the Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Apart from this, traders will take cues from further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which will drive the USD demand. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of USD/JPY bulls and backs the case for further gains.
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish near-term tone above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the intervention-led corrective fall from a four-decade high. The pair is now pressing into a dense overhead Fibonacci band, with the 50.0% retracement at 159.62 acting as immediate resistance, keeping gains somewhat capped. A clear break above would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 160.66, with subsequent Fibonacci barriers at 162.14 and 164.03 limiting further upside. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 158.58, ahead of the 23.6% level at 157.29, while a deeper pullback would likely look to the structural anchor near 155.21 as a more distant floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.50% | 1.35% | -0.77% | -0.68% | -0.03% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | -0.29% | 1.58% | -0.57% | -0.34% | 0.19% | 0.30% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | 0.29% | 1.85% | -0.30% | -0.22% | 0.48% | 0.59% | |
| JPY | -1.35% | -1.58% | -1.85% | -2.09% | -1.98% | -1.46% | -1.22% | |
| CAD | 0.77% | 0.57% | 0.30% | 2.09% | 0.13% | 0.63% | 0.88% | |
| AUD | 0.68% | 0.34% | 0.22% | 1.98% | -0.13% | 0.60% | 0.78% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | -0.19% | -0.48% | 1.46% | -0.63% | -0.60% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.30% | -0.59% | 1.22% | -0.88% | -0.78% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Deutsche Bank strategists report that US equities saw modest losses as Oil extended gains, with the S&P 500 easing slightly from record highs and chipmakers leading declines. Energy and health care outperformed. In Europe, the STOXX 600, DAX and CAC 40 hit new records, while the FTSE 100 slipped, and early-August risk sentiment remains unusually resilient.
Stocks resilient versus usual August pattern
"With the move higher in oil extending as the session went on, risk assets struggled to get traction, with the S&P 500 (-0.06%) seeing a marginal pull back from Friday’s all-time high."
"The NASDAQ (-0.32%) and Russell 2000 (-0.56%) also lost ground, though energy (+4.63%) and health care (+1.68%) sectors helped limit the S&P 500’s decline. Leading yesterday’s losses were chipmakers, with the Phily semi index dropping -2.94% after its +9.25% rebound last week."
"In AI news, Intel (-4.06%) is planning a $15bn offering of new stock, which would be the chipmaker’s first share sale since 1971. And then shortly after the US close we heard Nvidia (-2.86% yesterday) announce that it is teaming up with several investment firms to mobilize $500bn “to create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for Nvidia customers”. After the softer US close S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.37%) futures are edging higher though."
"In Europe, it was a marginally more positive story, with the STOXX 600 (+0.03%) inching up to a new record, having now posted 6 consecutive gains for the first time since May. That included a new record for the DAX (+0.02%) and the CAC 40 (+0.13%), but the FTSE 100 (-0.35%) slipped back."
"In Asia the KOSPI is up +1.46%, but with mainland China broadly flat and the Hang Seng declining -0.60%. Japanese markets are closed today for a public holiday."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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