Forex News
- Gold holds near $4,400 as Middle East war keeps safe-haven demand alive.
- Rising Oil, firmer DXY and higher Treasury yields continue to limit bullion’s rebound.
- Markets price no Fed cuts in 2026 as inflation risks tied to the war remain elevated.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured on Tuesday, remaining near its opening price amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon plans to deploy a brigade combat team from the Army's elite Airborne Division. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,404, after hitting a daily low of $4,306.
Bullion struggles for direction as rising energy prices and firm US yields offset persistent geopolitical tension
Geopolitics remain in the driver's seat in financial markets, amid worries that hostilities would resume if the US and Iran talks fail to provide an agreement in four days. Meanwhile, high energy prices have prompted investors to trim bets on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish stance, as the war in Iran is about to enter its fifth week and has disrupted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's Oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of writing, Oil prices are rising, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up more than 3% to $91.65. The Greenback, which has remained positively correlated with WTI over the last two weeks, is gaining 0.34%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck versus six currencies, trades at 99.50 after bouncing off daily lows of 99.09.
Recently, Axios revealed that the US and a group of regional mediators are discussing hosting high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday. Still, they're waiting for Iran's response.
Business activity in the US slowed, according to S&P Global's March Flash PMIs. The S&P Global Services PMI slowed from 51.7 to 51.1 while the services index improved from 51.6 to 52.4. Finally, the S&P Global Composite PMI for March, which comprises both indices, dipped from 51.9 in February to 51.4 in the current month.
Earlier, US jobs data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed its 4-week Employment Change average improved from 9K to 10K.
Fed to hold rates in 2026
Money markets do not expect any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, following last week's meeting. Uncertainty about the duration of the US-Israel and Iran conflict has increased the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal, a headwind for bullion prices.
The swaps market had priced in a 14% chance of a rate hike at the FOMC's April meeting. US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year T-note up nearly five and a half basis points at 4.408%.
US jobs data, Fed speeches ahead on the US economic calendar
On Wednesday, the US economic docket is light, aside from Fed Governor Stephen Miran's speech. By Thursday, US jobs data would be released, followed by speeches by Fed officials Cook, Miran, Jefferson and Barr.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold to remain sideways as doji emerges
Gold's technical picture remains bullish, as Monday's price action formed a hammer and the yellow metal hit a daily low of $4,098, shy of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,077.
As of writing, price action remains sideways, poised to form a doji candle, indicating traders' indecision.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold; the slope has turned flat, an indication that sellers remain in charge.
For a bullish continuation, XAU/USD must clear the Monday daily high at $4,536, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,590. A breach of the latter will expose the March 20 high of $4,736 ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,960.
On the downside, a Gold daily close below the February 2 cycle low of $4,402 would exacerbate a test of the November 13 high, which has turned support at $4,245, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $4,077.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Australia’s inflation is expected to remain steady, but upside risks are building.
- Middle East tensions reinforce expectations of further RBA tightening.
- The Australian Dollar trades near recent lows ahead of the inflation release.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT, with inflation expected to hold steady at 3.8% YoY and come in flat on a monthly basis. This release comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised its key rate to 4.10%, highlighting concerns over persistent inflation. Policymakers remain focused on potential second-round effects, while markets increasingly anticipate another rate hike in the coming months.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments are playing a growing role in inflation expectations. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supply routes are pushing Oil prices higher, which could soon feed into Australian inflation in the months ahead.
Ahead of the release, AUD/USD is pulling back on the day, trading near recent lows around 0.6960, as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following its recent decline.
What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?
February inflation data is expected to show broadly stable price pressures, but still above the RBA’s 2%-3% target range. Markets expect annual inflation to remain unchanged at 3.8% for a third consecutive month, while the monthly reading is seen falling to 0% after 0.4% in January. The RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, the Trimmed Mean CPI, is also expected to hold steady at 3.4% YoY.
However, these figures should be interpreted with caution. The February data does not yet fully reflect the recent surge in energy prices driven by the Middle East war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Westpac, fuel prices actually declined during the period, partially masking underlying inflationary pressures. At the component level, housing-related costs such as rents and electricity continue to rise, alongside education and clothing prices, while lower fuel and travel costs help contain headline inflation.
Looking ahead, risks are clearly tilted to the upside. Westpac expects inflation to rise to around 4.6% YoY in the June quarter due to the energy shock. While the direct impact on core inflation is expected to be more limited, second-round effects via wages and inflation expectations remain a key concern.
In this context, markets continue to price in a hawkish bias from the RBA, with rising expectations of further rate hikes in the months ahead.
How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?
In this environment, an in-line inflation reading may have a limited impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD), as markets are already aware that energy-related inflation pressures are still in the pipeline.
However, a stronger-than-expected print, particularly in the Trimmed Mean CPI, would reinforce expectations of further RBA tightening and support the Aussie.
On the other hand, a downside surprise could weigh on the Australian Dollar in the short term. That said, losses may remain limited, as markets are already anticipating a pickup in inflation driven by energy costs.
More broadly, AUD/USD direction will depend not only on domestic data but also on global risk sentiment and geopolitical developments, which continue to shape both inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy.
From a technical perspective, in the 4-hour chart below, AUD/USD near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair holds beneath a descending resistance trend line, with price also trading below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7059. The SMA has started to edge lower, indicating sellers retain the upper hand after the recent correction from the 0.7187 area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 shows momentum leaning to the downside but not yet in oversold territory, suggesting room for further pressure while keeping scope for intermittent rebounds.
Immediate support is seen around 0.6950, where the horizontal line coincides with the latest downswing, followed by a lower support level around the 0.6900 level if selling extends. On the topside, initial resistance emerges near the 0.7060 region in line with the 100-period SMA, which would need to be reclaimed to ease current downside pressure. A sustained move above that area would open the way toward the trend-line zone around 0.7068, while failure to clear it would keep focus on the 0.6950 and 0.6900 supports.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- The US Dollar Index recovered toward 99.50 on Tuesday as safe-haven demand returns and flash PMI data points to slower growth alongside rising prices.
- Iran denied any negotiations with the US are taking place, while the Pentagon prepared to deploy 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division, reversing Monday's de-escalation trade that briefly sent the Dollar to a two-week low.
- March flash PMI showed manufacturing expanding at 52.4 but services slipping to 51.1; S&P Global flagged stagflation risks with annualized GDP growth tracking just 1.0% and inflation potentially rebounding toward 4%.
The US Dollar Index rose about 0.3% on Tuesday, recovering to around 99.40 after Monday's sharp sell-off to a near two-week low. The session produced a steady grind higher from an early dip close to 99.10, with price pushing to about 99.60 in afternoon trade before pulling back slightly into the close. The reversal mirrored the broader risk recalibration across markets as Iran's flat denial of Trump's diplomatic claims brought safe-haven flows back into the Greenback.
The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast is tracking March Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.02% and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) at 3.14%, both sharp jumps from February, driven almost entirely by the oil shock. CME FedWatch pricing now shows essentially zero probability of a cut by year-end, with some traders beginning to price in a possible hike if core inflation picks up. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May, described the situation as "an energy shock of some size and duration" while stressing it was "too soon to know" the full impact.
Tuesday's flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data reinforced the stagflation narrative: Manufacturing expanded at 52.4, beating the 51.5 consensus, but Services slipped to 51.1 and the composite reading fell to an 11-month low of 51.4. Input costs rose at their fastest pace in ten months while selling prices hit their highest since August 2022, and employment declined for the first time in over a year. S&P Global's chief economist noted the data points to annualized GDP growth of just 1.0% alongside inflation potentially rebounding toward 4%, a combination that leaves the Fed caught between its dual mandates.
DXY 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 5-minute chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.41. Near-term bias is neutral with a slight bearish tilt as prices slip back toward the 200-period exponential moving average at 99.38 after failing to hold the early-session push above 99.50. The flattening EMA and the sequence of lower intrabar highs point to fading upside momentum, while Stochastic RSI recovering from oversold territory below 20 toward the mid-40s suggests short-covering rather than fresh buying interest at this stage.
Initial resistance stands at 99.50, where recent upticks stalled, followed by a stronger cap near 99.60 if buyers regain control. On the downside, the EMA around 99.38 acts as immediate intraday support, and a clear break below this area would expose the next bearish objective near 99.30. A sustained move back above 99.50 would ease downside pressure, while a close below 99.38 would reinforce the short-term corrective drift.
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.42. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, which continue to underpin a medium-term uptrend. The recent pullback from the 100.50 area has so far been contained near the rising 50-day EMA around 98.60, showing buyers defending this dynamic support. Stochastic RSI is retreating from overbought readings toward mid-range, indicating fading upside momentum but not yet signaling a complete reversal of trend.
Initial support is located at the 50-day EMA near 98.60, followed by the 200-day EMA around 99.00, where a break would open the way toward the late-January lows near 97.80. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 100.00, ahead of the recent peak at 100.50, which caps the current bullish structure. A daily close above 100.50 would confirm a continuation of the broader advance, while a sustained move below 98.60 would neutralize the upside bias and expose deeper retracement.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- WTI rebounded roughly 3% on Tuesday as Iran denies diplomatic progress and the war premium floods back into Crude Oil markets.
- Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran.
- Iran has denied that any negotiations are taking place.
- The Pentagon is preparing to deploy 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne to the region.
WTI Crude Oil bounced roughly 3% on Tuesday, recovering to above $90.00/barrel after Monday's brutal 11% sell-off. The session produced a wide intraday range, with price dipping to near $89 in early trading before buyers drove a sharp V-shaped recovery to about $93, only to fade back near $91 by the close. The whiplash price action reflected a market still caught between ceasefire optimism and the physical reality of a near-total supply shutdown through the world's most critical Oil chokepoint.
Monday's crash was sparked by President Trump's Truth Social post claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and a five-day postponement of strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. The post briefly wiped out a significant chunk of the war premium that has built in since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Iran's parliament speaker dismissed the claims as disinformation aimed at manipulating oil markets, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely and respond in kind to any attacks on energy infrastructure.
At the same time, the Pentagon is preparing to deploy roughly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East on top of the 50,000 already in the region, signaling that the US is building ground-operations capability even as it tests the diplomatic waters.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the Hormuz closure as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with flows through the strait collapsing from around 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. IEA member nations agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, though executive director Fatih Birol stressed that reopening the strait is the only lasting solution.
Goldman Sachs raised its WTI forecasts to $98 for March and $105 for April, warning that if Hormuz flows stay at 5% of normal through April 10, prices are likely to keep grinding higher. Traders are now watching two near-term flashpoints: reports that the US and regional mediators are discussing high-level peace talks with Iran as early as Thursday, and the March 28 deadline when Trump's five-day strike postponement expires.
WTI 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $90.87. Price holds just beneath the gently rising 200-period exponential moving average around $91.02, keeping the very short-term tone mildly bearish after failing to sustain earlier highs above $92.50. The recent pullback unfolded with Stochastic RSI dropping from overbought extremes into mid-range, showing fading upside momentum rather than aggressive selling pressure. With price oscillating close to the long-term intraday average and momentum stabilizing near the middle of its range, the near-term bias turns neutral with a slight downside tilt while the market digests the prior advance.
Immediate resistance aligns with the 200-EMA near $91.00, with a break above exposing further recovery toward $91.60 and then $92.20. On the downside, initial support comes in around $90.50, protecting a deeper retracement toward $90.10 and then $89.60 if intraday selling resumes. A sustained move above the 200-EMA would weaken the bearish bias and favor a return to the upper $91s, while failure below $90.50 would confirm that sellers remain in control of the short-term structure.
In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $90.88. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming that the recent pullback from the $98 area is a correction within an established uptrend. Momentum has cooled from overbought territory, with the Stochastic RSI retreating from readings near 90 toward the mid-30s, indicating that upside pressure has eased but not yet flipped into outright bearish control. As long as price remains above the shorter EMA cluster, dips are likely to attract buying interest rather than signal a trend reversal.
Initial support emerges near $88.00, just above the rising 50-day EMA around $75.65 and well clear of the 200-day EMA near $66.60, which defines a broader bullish floor. A deeper decline would eye the $80.00 area as intermediate support before exposing the stronger demand zone closer to the 200-day average. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at $95.00, with a break opening the way toward the recent high near $99.00. A daily close above that upper barrier would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, while sustained trading below $88.00 would warn of a broader consolidation phase rather than a straightforward extension higher.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, March 25:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around the 99.50 region, experiencing a relative surge as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations offset mixed risk sentiment. Elevated Oil prices reinforce inflation concerns, supporting the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.40% | 0.37% | 0.28% | 0.61% | 0.71% | 0.59% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.36% | 0.45% | 0.33% | |
| GBP | -0.40% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.08% | 0.23% | 0.33% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.37% | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.32% | 0.42% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.61% | -0.36% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.32% | 0.10% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.45% | -0.33% | -0.38% | -0.42% | -0.10% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.59% | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.25% | -0.30% | 0.04% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell near the 1.1580 zone, finding some support from a softer Dollar at times but pressured by weak Eurozone PMI data. The near stagnation in services activity capped upside and highlighted slowing growth momentum in the bloc.
GBP/USD plummeted to near the 1.3385 region. The Pound was weighed down by rising cost pressure and slowing United Kingdom (UK) business activity, as PMI-related inflation concerns intensified alongside the global energy shock.
USD/JPY remained elevated near the 159.00 area, supported by higher US yields. The Yen remained under pressure amid policy divergence, though intermittent risk-off sentiment provided mild support.
AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.6940, benefiting from USD softness in some parts of the session. However, gains were capped as global growth concerns triggered by weak PMIs and rising energy costs limited risk appetite.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil surged toward $92 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply risks linked to disruptions in key shipping routes. The rally reinforced inflation fears and became the key driver of global markets.
Gold trades in a tight, range-bound tone at $4,406, struggling to capitalize fully on safe-haven demand after Monday’s drop to $4,098. While geopolitical risks offered support, higher yields and a resilient US Dollar limited upside momentum.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations (Mar).
- Germany IFO Business Climate (Mar).
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr).
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- United States Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Mar).
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/USD weakens as Middle East tensions keep the US Dollar supported.
- Technically, EUR/USD remains below key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias.
- Momentum indicators show a cautious recovery within a broader bearish trend.
The Euro (EUR) trades under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as heightened geopolitical risks surrounding the US-Israel war with Iran continue to underpin demand for the Greenback. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1573, reversing most of the previous day’s gains and down nearly 0.35% on the day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.50, rebounding after briefly slipping below the 99.00 mark on Monday.
The Euro has remained under pressure since tensions in the Middle East escalated, weighed down by rising Oil prices and their negative impact on the Eurozone economy, given that the bloc is a net energy importer.
Higher energy costs are raising concerns about slower growth and persistent inflation across the region. Even rising expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes have failed to provide meaningful support to the Euro.
In contrast, the US Dollar continues to benefit from multiple supportive factors. The United States is a net oil exporter, making it less affected by higher energy prices.
At the same time, Oil is priced in US Dollars, which increases global demand for the Greenback as prices rise. Additionally, during periods of uncertainty, investors also prefer the US Dollar for safety and liquidity, reinforcing its role as the world’s primary reserve currency. Further support comes from rising US Treasury yields, as markets have fully priced out the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate bets for this year.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows that the near-term bias remains mildly bearish as sellers continue to defend the 1.1600 mark while the pair trades below the clustered 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around 1.1670-1.1680, keeping the broader tone under downward pressure.
However, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from near-oversold levels to around 45, but still holding below the midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive but remains close to the zero line, which suggests only tentative recovery interest within an overall soft backdrop.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near 1.1665, marking the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2082–1.1411 decline, which also aligns with the 100- and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing a strong resistance zone. A sustained move above this level could open the door toward the 50% retracement near 1.1745, followed by the 38.2% level around 1.1825.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the recent swing low near 1.1410. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward the 1.1265 region, marked by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, with further downside risk toward the 1.1200 psychological level.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Silver posts modest gains but struggles to extend upside as the US Dollar and yields remain strong.
- Middle East tensions persist, though mixed signals limit strong safe-haven inflows.
- Higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to weigh on precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly higher on Tuesday, around $69.35 at the time of writing, up 0.25% on the day, but struggles to build momentum as markets remain driven by conflicting geopolitical signals and tight financial conditions.
The white metal finds limited support from ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as investors assess the likelihood of escalation or de-escalation in the conflict. Comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting a pause in military strikes initially improved market sentiment, but denials from Iranian officials regarding any negotiations keep uncertainty elevated.
In this context, Silver’s safe-haven appeal remains restrained. Despite heightened geopolitical risks, demand for precious metals is capped by rising US Treasury yields and a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD). Elevated energy prices, driven in part by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing a higher-for-longer interest rate narrative.
Markets have significantly repriced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, now anticipating that rates will remain elevated through the year. This shift in rate expectations is a headwind for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Finally, amid heightened volatility, investors are increasingly favoring liquidity, leading to broad-based selling across asset classes. Precious metals, including Silver, are also being sold to meet margin calls, reduce risk exposure, and preserve capital, limiting near-term upside despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Eurozone business activity lost momentum with Composite and Services PMIs falling to multi-month lows.
- Japan’s CPI data cooled with both headline and core inflation slipping below the BoJ’s 2% target.
- Diverging signals from the Eurozone economy and Japan’s inflation outlook keep EUR/JPY trading in a neutral range.
The EUR/JPY cross is trading in a neutral zone near 184.00 after the Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data indicated a significant loss of economic momentum in the region.
The Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 50.5 from 51.9, marking a 10-month low, while the Services PMI fell to 50.1 from 51.9. However, Manufacturing provided some support, with the PMI increasing to 51.4 from 50.8, reaching its highest level in nearly four years.
On another note, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% YoY in February, easing from 1.5% previously, while core inflation excluding fresh food slowed to 1.6% from 2.0%, slipping below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.
The CPI data could complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalization path ahead as policymakers emphasized their commitment to increasing rates if the economy and prices develop as expected. They also noted that their policy will aim to achieve the 2% inflation target in a stable and sustainable way.
Short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 184.07. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above layered support and stays above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which edge higher and cluster around the mid-183.00s. The RSI at 59 leans to the upside without reaching overbought territory, reinforcing steady buying pressure rather than a momentum spike.
Immediate support is seen at 184.06, where recent price holds above the upper horizontal floor, followed by 183.82 and then 183.67, which align with the rising SMAs and underpin the bullish tone while intact. On the upside, continuation above the current area would open the way to fresh resistance levels beyond 184.10, with the bullish bias intact as long as the cross trades above the 183.67 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average gains around 40 points on Tuesday while the S&P 500 slips 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite falls 0.5%.
- Oil prices resume their rally as doubts grow over the viability of US-Iran diplomatic talks, with Brent crude jumping back above $100 a barrel.
- Apollo and Ares both capped redemptions on their flagship private credit funds after withdrawal requests surged past their quarterly limits.
- Salesforce and IBM lead the Dow lower while Chevron and Walmart provide a floor for the index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eked out a modest gain on Tuesday, adding around 40 points after a volatile premarket session, as markets struggled to build on Monday's sharp rebound. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%, weighed down by weakness in tech names. Tuesday's session was volatile, with the Dow dipping below 46,000 in early trade before recovering as investors tried to make sense of conflicting signals around the US-Iran situation.
Middle East confusion keeps markets on edge
Monday's 600-point rally in the Dow was fuelled by President Trump's claim that Washington and Tehran had held "very good and productive conversations" on ending the conflict. He also announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. However, Iran flatly denied that any direct talks had occurred. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US had engaged with Iran through Middle Eastern intermediaries, but Arab mediators privately expressed doubt that a quick deal was within reach. Adding to the confusion on Tuesday, Israel and Iran continued to exchange strikes, dimming expectations of an imminent de-escalation. Iran struck targets in Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, while Israel accelerated attacks on both Iran and Lebanon. On the other side, an Iranian source told CNN that there has been "outreach" between Washington and Tehran, and Pakistan offered to facilitate further discussions. The mixed signals left equities stuck in a holding pattern, with investors unsure of how much of Monday's optimism was warranted.
Oil prices jump as peace premium fades
Oil prices reversed sharply higher on Tuesday after Monday's dramatic plunge. Brent crude futures climbed more than 3% to trade above $103 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped roughly 4% to above $91 a barrel. Monday had seen Brent fall about 11% on the back of Trump's de-escalation comments, briefly settling below $100 for the first time in nearly two weeks. The renewed rally reflected growing scepticism that the conflict would end anytime soon. Citi analysts warned that Oil could test $200 a barrel if production disruptions persist through June, calling the supply shock larger than those of the 1970s as a share of global output. Chevron (CVX) was among the top performers in the Dow on Tuesday, adding about 1%. Energy remains the only positive S&P 500 sector since the conflict began, up nearly 32% year to date.
Private credit stress deepens as redemption gates spread
A wave of redemption pressure hit the alternative asset management sector hard on Tuesday. Apollo (APO) disclosed that its $15 billion flagship private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, received withdrawal requests totalling 11.2% of shares outstanding in the first quarter, more than double the fund's 5% quarterly redemption cap. Apollo chose to stick with the 5% limit, meaning redeeming investors will receive roughly 45 cents on the dollar. Ares (ARES) followed suit, announcing that its $10.7 billion Strategic Income Fund also capped redemptions at 5% after clients sought to pull 11.6% of shares. Shares of both Apollo and Ares dropped more than 4% on the session, dragging down peers including Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR), and Blue Owl Capital (OWL). The redemption wave reflects growing unease around private credit exposure to software companies whose businesses may be disrupted by artificial intelligence, alongside broader concerns about transparency and lending discipline across the $1.8 trillion asset class.
Jefferies rallies on Sumitomo Mitsui takeover speculation
Jefferies (JEF) was a standout gainer on Tuesday, rising about 4% after a Financial Times report that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is working on plans for a possible takeover of the US investment bank. SMFG, Japan's second-largest lender, has reportedly assembled a small internal team to act if Jefferies' depressed share price presents an opportunity. The Japanese bank already holds a roughly 20% economic stake in Jefferies, built up since an initial 4.9% investment in 2021. However, the excitement was tempered somewhat after Bloomberg reported that SMFG has no immediate plans to pursue a deal, and Jefferies has indicated it is not interested in selling at current levels. Jefferies shares have fallen more than 36% year to date amid investor concerns tied to its exposure to collapsed auto-parts supplier First Brands and broader scrutiny of its risk management practices. The company reports earnings on Wednesday.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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