Forex News
- The Indian Rupee trades flat around 88.30 against the US Dollar ahead of trade discussions between the US and India.
- Washington receives 50% tariffs on imports from India into the US.
- The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing rates on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens almost flat at around 88.30 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair is expected to face sharp volatility as top negotiators from India and the United States (US) are scheduled to discuss trade in New Delhi on Tuesday.
Trade relations between India and the US have not been good in the past few months as President Donald Trump has criticized New Delhi for buying Oil from Russia, which he called that Moscow is utilizing the money for funding the war in Ukraine. Additionally, Trump also raised tariffs on India to 50%, making Indian products less competitive in global markets.
Ahead of US-India trade discussions, Washington’s trade adviser Peter Navarro said in an interview with CNBC on Monday that India was "coming to the negotiating table". He also acknowledged the exchange of tweets between President Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi happened last week, which signaled that both nations continue to negotiate on trade and expressed confidence that they will reach a deal soon.
"India is coming to the table. PM Modi sent out a very conciliatory, nice, constructive tweet, and President Trump responded to that. We'll see how this works,” Navarro.
The confirmation of a trade truce between the US and India would be favorable for the Indian Rupee in times when the Asian giant is going through structural reforms to steadfast its domestic consumption. Earlier this month, the Indian government unveiled a new Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill in which tax slabs were brought down to two from four.
Daily digest market movers: The Fed seems certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday
- The USD/INR pair trades calmly around 88.30, even as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, suggesting a significant weakness in the Indian Rupee. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 97.20, the lowest level seen in three weeks.
- The US Dollar remains on the back foot as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is certain to start the monetary-easing cycle in its policy announcement on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25%, while the rest support a bigger reduction of 50 bps.
- As the Fed is widely anticipated to reduce interest rates, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the monetary policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to get cues about the outlook of interest rates for the remainder of the year and the labor market.
- Fed dovish speculation has been intensified by escalating US labor market risks. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 5 showed that individuals claiming jobless benefits came in the highest in four years at 263K.
- In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Retail Sales data is expected to come in lower at 0.3% on a monthly basis, against the prior release of 0.5%.
- Meanwhile, the US Senate narrowly confirmed President Donald Trump’s chosen economic adviser Stephen Miran as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors ahead of the policy decision. Miran was placed on the Fed’s board after member Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned in early August.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees upside if RSI rebounds from 60.00
The USD/INR pair trades flat around 88.30 in the opening session on Tuesday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near 88.03.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI rebounds from that level.
Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of 89.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- NZD/USD trades sideways around 0.5970 ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy outcome and NZ Q2 GDP data.
- The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday amid downside labor market risks.
- The NZ economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year.
The NZD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.5970 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. Investors brace for significant volatility in the Kiwi pair as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement and New Zealand’s (NZ) Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
In late Asian trading hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to a seven-week low near 97.10.
On Wednesday, the Fed is certain to start the monetary-easing campaign in the wake of growing United States (US) labor market risks.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25%, while the rest support a bigger reduction of 50 bps.
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Retail Sales data is expected to come in lower at 0.3% on a monthly basis against the prior release of 0.5%.
In the NZ economy, the GDP growth is expected to have declined by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year after rising by 0.8% in the previous quarter. The scenario of contraction in the NZ GDP growth will boost market speculation for more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in the remainder of the year.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 17, 2025 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.25%
Previous: 4.5%
Source: Federal Reserve
- Australian Dollar retreats after reaching a 10-month high at 0.6676, reached on Tuesday.
- China and the US reached a commercial agreement on Monday to transfer TikTok into US ownership.
- The US Dollar extends losses as the Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after registering gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) struggled ahead of the looming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting due on Wednesday.
The AUD could have received support after China and the United States (US) reached a commercial agreement on Monday to place TikTok under US ownership, with final approval anticipated during a Friday call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump wrote on “Social Truth” that the “big Trade Meeting” went “VERY WELL!” and emphasized that US-China relations remain “very strong.”
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Tuesday that the central bank is “close to getting inflation to target.” Hunter noted that risks to the outlook are balanced and emphasized the need for a forward-looking approach given the delayed impact of monetary policy. She added that the RBA is closely monitoring the underlying strength of consumer spending and aims to keep the economy near full employment.
The Aussie Dollar finds support on the fading likelihood of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. Swaps now price in an 86% likelihood of unchanged policy in September, bolstered by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter July inflation. Consumer Inflation Expectations also climbed in September, signaling stronger domestic demand and raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures.
Australian Dollar struggles despite risk-on mood
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending losses and trading around 97.20 at the time of writing. Traders will likely be observing the US Retail Sales data for August, due on Tuesday, which could offer fresh cues on US consumer spending.
- The US Senate confirmed Stephen Miran by a 48-47 vote to fill the Federal Reserve Board seat vacated by Adriana Kugler last month. Miran will be the first executive-branch official to serve on the central bank’s board since 1935.
- The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, though there remains a slight chance of a 50-basis-point cut. Markets have also factored in continued easing through 2026 to help stave off a potential recession.
- Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the US central bank to deliver three rate cuts this year, after recent data pointed to easing inflation pressures. In separate notes on Friday, the brokerages projected 25-basis-point reductions at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December, according to Reuters.
- Traders are now expecting multiple Fed rate cuts after US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims climbed to their highest since October 2021, following last week’s weak Nonfarm Payrolls report, overshadowing a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading.
- The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August vs. 3.8% expected and 3.7% in July. Chinese Industrial Production increased 5.2% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.8% forecast and 5.7% seen previously.
- The NBS said during its press conference on Monday that economic operation was generally steady in August, but domestic demand will expand and promote a rebound in prices. Some firms are having difficulties in operations as the external environment is very severe, NBS added.
Australian Dollar eyes 11-month highs near 0.6700
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6660 on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish market bias. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating short-term price momentum is stronger.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the 11-month high of 0.6687, recorded in November 2024, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6700.
The AUD/USD pair may find its initial support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6621, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6570. A break below the channel would weaken the short-term price momentum and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6535.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.22% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.00% | -0.21% | 0.08% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.00% | -0.16% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.33% | 0.13% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.24% | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.25% | -0.33% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.17% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.23% | 0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- GBP/JPY drifts lower on Tuesday and snaps a three-day winning streak to the YTD peak.
- BoJ rate hike bets benefit the JPY and exert some downward pressure on spot prices.
- Traders look to the UK jobs data for a short-term impetus ahead of key central bank events.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak to its highest level since July 2024, around the 200.75 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 200.00 psychological mark as traders look forward to the UK employment details for a fresh impetus ahead of the key central bank events.
The UK jobs report, along with Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, could offer critical insight into the trajectory of inflation and its wider implications on monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected CPI print could further reduce the odds for an immediate interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), which is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday. This, in turn, could provide a goodish lift to the British Pound (GBP) and assist the GBP/JPY cross to attract some dip-buyers at lower levels.
Ahead of the key data, a broadly firmer Japanese Yen (JPY) exerts some downward pressure on spot prices. Despite domestic political turmoil, investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to its policy normalization path, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning the JPY. That said, the uncertainty over the likely timing and the pace of rate hikes by the BoJ might cap gains for the JPY and help limit deeper losses for the GBP/JPY cross.
Furthermore, the prevalent risk-on environment – as depicted by a generally positive mood around the equity markets – could offer some support to the currency pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY cross has topped out in the near-term and positioning for any meaningful corrective decline.
(The story was corrected on September 16 at 05:39 GMT, to say in the title, the third bullet point and the first paragraph that traders now look to UK jobs data, and not UK CPI.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 17, 2025 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.9%
Previous: 3.8%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
- EUR/USD appreciates ahead of Eurozone Industrial Production and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey.
- The Euro gains on hawkish comments from the ECB officials.
- Traders expect the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points in September.
EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.1780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the Euro (EUR) gains ground ahead of seasonally adjusted Eurozone Industrial Production figures for July and German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment data for September.
The Euro draws support against its peers from hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) commentary. European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are in a good place and added that upside risks to inflation continue to dominate. Schnabel said the growth is likely to exceed the potential, with domestic demand counteracting falling exports.
ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said Monday that policy should not be adjusted over “small deviations” from the inflation target, while warning of upside risks to inflation. Kazimir added that interest rates have been brought into neutral territory.
The EUR/USD pair advanced as the US Dollar (USD) weakened on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting on Wednesday. Markets are also assigning a slim probability to a larger 50-basis-point cut, while pricing in continued easing through 2026 to counter the risk of recession.
Traders will likely observe the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the ‘dot plot,’ where each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects the federal funds rate in the near future.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers amid expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike.
- Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and weigh on USD/JPY ahead of central bank events.
- Political and BoJ, along with a positive risk tone, might cap gains for the safe-haven JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is seen extending its steady intraday ascent against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), dragging the USD/JPY pair below the 147.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to its policy normalization path marks a big divergence in comparison to rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, drags the USD to its lowest level since July 24 and benefits the lower-yielding JPY.
However, the recent political developments in Japan could give the BoJ reasons to delay rate hikes. This, along with a positive risk tone, might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the safe-haven JPY. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for this week's key central bank events. The Fed is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday ahead of the two-day BoJ meeting starting Thursday. The outcome will play a key role in influencing the JPY and the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen bulls retain short-term control as BoJ rate hike bets offset political uncertainty
- The Japanese Yen has been struggling for a firm near-term direction over the past week or so and oscillating in a range against its American counterpart amid ambiguity over the Bank of Japan rate hike decision. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation added a layer of uncertainty in the markets and could give the BoJ more reasons to go slow on interest rate hikes.
- Japan's farm minister and the chief government spokesperson, Shinjiro Koizumi, on Tuesday announced his candidacy to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and replace the outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
- Meanwhile, the US-Japan trade deal has removed some risks to domestic growth. The BoJ sees the development paving the way for steady progress toward the inflation target. Moreover, a tight labor market and optimistic economic outlook keep the door open for an imminent BoJ interest rate hike by the end of this year and offer some support to the JPY.
- Moreover, the current market pricing points to a nearly two full 25-basis-point rate hikes by July next year, which, in turn, warrants some caution before placing aggressive JPY bearish bets. Traders might also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest BoJ monetary policy update on Friday. This, along with a bearish US Dollar, should cap the USD/JPY pair.
- The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near its lowest level since July 24 amid rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Traders ramped up their bets for three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year after the recent US macroeconomic data pointed to signs of a softening labor market.
- The US Senate voted to confirm Stephen Miran – one of US President Donald Trump’s top economic advisers – to join the Fed's powerful Board of Governors. Miran will now be voting on this week's interest rate decision. A federal appeals court ruled that Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday.
- On the geopolitical front, Trump said on Monday that a face-to-face meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, is difficult. This comes amid the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and brewing Middle East tensions, which could further benefit the safe-haven JPY ahead of the key central bank events.
- Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of US monthly Retail Sales figures and Industrial Production data later during the North American session. The immediate market reaction is more likely to be muted as traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the central banks' policy outlook.
USD/JPY seems vulnerable to test 146.30-146.20 horizontal support
The range-bound price action might be seen as a consolidation phase before the next leg of a directional move. Meanwhile, the recent repeated failures near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling and acceptance below the 147.00 mark before positioning for further losses amid neutral oscillators on the daily chart. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the 146.30-146.20 horizontal support. This is closely followed by the 146.00 round figure, below which the downward trajectory could extend further towards the 145.35 intermediate support en route to the 145.00 psychological mark.
On the flip side, any positive move up is likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 148.00 round figure, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier, currently pegged near the 148.75 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 149.00 mark and the monthly swing high, around the 149.15 region, would negate the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.14% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | 0.00% | -0.17% | 0.10% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.00% | -0.12% | 0.10% | 0.27% | 0.28% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.10% | 0.15% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.27% | -0.31% | -0.10% | 0.11% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.01% | -0.00% | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver bulls pause for a breather after touching the highest level since September 2011.
- The overbought daily RSI makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation.
- Any corrective decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.
Silver (XAG/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase near its highest level since September 2011 and oscillates in a range, just above mid-$42.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the recent strong move up witnessed over the past four weeks or so pauses near the top boundary of the month-to-date (MTD) ascending channel as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC policy meeting. Moreover, the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart further holds back the XAG/USD bulls from placing fresh bets.
This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for an extension of the sideways consolidative price move or a modest pullback before the next leg up. That said, any corrective slide below Asian session low, around the $42.40-$42.35 zone, could be seen as a buying opportunity and limit losses for the XAG/USD near the $42.00 mark. A convincing break below, however, should pave the way for a deeper decline.
The subsequent fall could drag the white metal to the $41.40 confluence – comprising the lower boundary of the aforementioned channel and the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below would expose the $41.00 mark before the XAG/USD extends the corrective slide further towards the $40.80-$40.75 intermediate support en route to the $40.50-$40.45 region.
Meanwhile, bulls might now wait for a sustained move beyond the ascending channel resistance, currently pegged near the $42.75 region. This is followed by the $43.00 round figure, above which the XAG/USD could aim to challenge the September 2011 peak, around the $43.40 region, and climb further to the $44.00 round figure and the $44.25 region, or the August 2011 swing high.
Silver 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 10,431.45 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 10,414.78 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 121,669.00 per tola from INR 121,475.90 per tola a day earlier.
| Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
| 1 Gram | 10,431.45 |
| 10 Grams | 104,313.30 |
| Tola | 121,669.00 |
| Troy Ounce | 324,454.60 |
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to draw support from dovish Fed-inspired USD weakness and geopolitical risks
The XAU/USD bulls pause for a breather during the Asian session on Tuesday following the recent blowout rally to a fresh all-time high and ahead of the key central bank event risks. The downside for the XAU/USD pair, however, remains cushioned amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Traders ramped up their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve following the release of a weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the US central bank is expected to lower borrowing costs three times this year.
The US Senate voted to confirm US President Donald Trump's aide, Stephen Miran, to join the Fed's Board of Governors. The decision came as a US federal appeals court ruling that Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting due to begin this Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the dovish outlook leads to an extension of the recent US Dollar (USD) downfall to its lowest level since July 24 and should continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. Apart from this, the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict could limit losses for the safe-haven commodity.
Russian forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, following a series of strikes by the latter against its oil infrastructure in recent weeks. Moreover, Trump has repeatedly threatened tougher measures against Russia, keeping geopolitical risks in play.
An emergency summit of Arab and Islamic country leaders has condemned Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar's capital, on September 9. A joint statement from the summit urged member states to coordinate efforts aimed at suspending Israel's membership in the United Nations.
Tuesday's release of the US monthly Retail Sales figures and Industrial Production data might do little to provide any impetus. Traders this week will also scrutinize monetary policy updates from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday.
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
FX option expiries for Sept 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
EUR/USD: EUR amounts
- 1.1710 916m
- 1.1715 1.1b
- 1.1750 1.9b
- 1.1760 1.5b
- 1.1800 2b
- 1.1900 860m
USD/JPY: USD amounts
- 146.00 1.4b
- 147.00 829m
- 149.00 694m
- 150.00 1.5b
AUD/USD: AUD amounts
- 0.6600 677m
USD/CAD: USD amounts
- 1.3900 503m
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