Forex News
- USD/INR weakens as the US Dollar declines amid easing safe-haven demand amid signs of Middle East de-escalation.
- Washington ended offensive operations against Iran, reaffirming the ceasefire, as Marco Rubio said objectives were achieved.
- India’s forex reserves fell from $728.5 billion, while equity outflows hit $19 billion in March and April.
USD/INR extends losses for the second successive day, trading around 95.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders will likely observe India’s HSBC Composite and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to be released later in the day.
The USD/INR pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) declines on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions. Washington declared an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faces fewer headwinds due to softer oil prices. West Texas Intermediate continues to decline, trading near $97.90 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices are easing amid fading tensions in the Middle East. Donald Trump said that the US military would temporarily pause “Project Freedom” to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump added that the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries and follows what he described as “tremendous military success” during a US campaign against Iran.
Indian equities opened higher on Wednesday, supported by the decline in oil prices after Trump signaled that a potential peace agreement with Iran could be within reach. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold domestic equities worth 36.22 billion rupees ($380.54 million) on a net basis on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased equities worth 26.03 billion rupees, per Reuters.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades near 95.00 after pulling back from fresh record highs
USD/INR trades around 95.00 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias as the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern.
USD/INR keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price over these trend measures suggests underlying demand remains in control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 stays in positive but not overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive though no longer in an extreme state.
The USD/INR pair may rebound toward the fresh record high of 95.53, which was recorded on May 5. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.72, aligned with the lower boundary of the channel.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.69% | -0.77% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.47% | -0.57% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.50% | -0.59% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.64% | -0.71% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.55% | -0.63% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.69% | 0.47% | 0.50% | 0.64% | 0.55% | -0.07% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 0.77% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.71% | 0.63% | 0.07% | 0.74% | |
| INR | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.58% | -0.74% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
- Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day as US-Iran peace deal hopes undermine the USD.
- Easing inflation fears temper hawkish Fed bets and contribute to driving flows into the commodity.
- Traders now look forward to the US ADP report for some impetus ahead of the US NFP on Friday.
Gold (XAU/USD) gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday and climbs to a fresh weekly top, above the $4,650 level, during the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) weakens across the board amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, assisting the commodity to recover further from a more than one-month low, around the $4,500 mark, touched on Monday. Moreover, retreating Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper bets for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is seen as another factor benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “Project Freedom” – the US military’s operation to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see whether a deal with Iran can be finalized. Trump added in a post on Truth Social that great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran. This follows earlier comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Iran, and that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now. Furthermore, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US-led ‘Operation Epic Fury’ launched against Iran, jointly with Israel, on 28 February, is over.
This raised hopes for a peace deal, which would end the US-Israeli war in Iran and reopen the economically vital strait, boosting investors' confidence and undermining the USD's reserve currency status. Meanwhile, the latest developments dragged crude oil prices to a one-week low, easing fears of surging consumer inflation and paving the way for the US Fed to maintain a cautious stance. However, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are now pricing in over a 35% probability that the US central bank will hike rates by the end of this year. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD and keep a lid on any further near-term appreciation for the Gold price.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD pair has bottomed out near the $4,500 mark and positioning for further gains. Traders now look to the US ADP report on private-sector employment, due later during the early North American session. Moreover, speeches from influential FOMC members and geopolitical developments will drive the USD demand. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the buck and the Gold price.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold looks to build on positive momentum as a breakout above 200-SMA comes into play
From a technical perspective, this week's goodish rebound from the $4,500 mark, or the vicinity of the 50% retracement level of the March-April rise, and a subsequent strength beyond the $4,600 round figure favor the XAU/USD bulls. The precious metal is edging closer to the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,651.69, which now acts as the first hurdle barrier.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators support the topside stance. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 59, indicating firm but not yet overbought conditions. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays positive and rising, hinting that bullish pressure is rebuilding as the XAU/USD pair challenges overhead supply.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,588.83, with deeper pullbacks likely to find demand at the 50.0% retracement near $4,495.62 and then the 61.8% level around $4,402.41 if sellers gain traction. A convincing break below the latter will negate the constructive outlook and shift the near-term bias back in favor of the XAU/USD bears.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.36% | -0.36% | -1.14% | -0.24% | -0.91% | -1.02% | -0.44% | |
| EUR | 0.36% | -0.01% | -0.73% | 0.13% | -0.54% | -0.69% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.00% | -0.72% | 0.17% | -0.54% | -0.69% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 1.14% | 0.73% | 0.72% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.69% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.86% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.54% | -0.18% | 0.67% | -0.12% | 0.48% | |
| NZD | 1.02% | 0.69% | 0.69% | -0.06% | 0.79% | 0.12% | 0.60% | |
| CHF | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.06% | -0.69% | 0.18% | -0.48% | -0.60% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF falls as the US Dollar weakens amid growing optimism that Washington may strike a deal with Iran.
- US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the nearly month-old ceasefire remains in place.
- Switzerland’s headline inflation rose to 0.6% YoY in April, above the SNB’s 0.5% yearly projection.
USD/CHF loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 0.7800 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid rising optimism that Washington could secure a deal with Iran.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the ceasefire that began nearly a month ago remains in place, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that offensive operations have ended as Washington shifts focus to safeguarding shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump stated that the US would temporarily pause efforts to assist stranded vessels in exiting the Strait of Hormuz, allowing time to assess prospects for a deal with Iran to end the conflict. However, the blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports will remain in effect.
The Greenback faces pressure as oil prices retreat, easing inflation concerns and reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to contain price pressures.
Switzerland’s headline inflation rose to 0.6% YoY in April, the highest level since December, up from 0.3% in March and slightly above the 0.5% average projected by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for this year. The increase was mainly driven by higher energy costs, as Middle East tensions pushed petrol prices higher. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 0.3% from 0.4% in March, marking the slowest increase since July 2021 and reducing pressure on the central bank to adjust policy.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens amid ongoing safe-haven demand due to persistent geopolitical tensions and Switzerland’s low energy dependence, which should help limit the impact on consumer prices. The SNB is widely expected to keep interest rates at 0% in June and potentially over the next 12 months.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- USD/JPY falls to near 156.15 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Japan’s Katayama warned of "decisive measures" against speculative moves, maintaining high alert during the ongoing Golden Week holidays.
- The US ADP Employment Change report is due later on Wednesday ahead of jobs data.
The USD/JPY pair came under selling pressure, falling to 155.00 before rebounding to trade around 156.15 during Wednesday’s European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on suspected massive government interventions aimed at curbing its weakness against the US Dollar (USD).
Japanese authorities are estimated to have spent around $35 billion last week to support the JPY after it breached the 160.00 psychological level. Traders remain on edge over the potential for Japanese officials to step back into the market after last week’s intervention to curb weakness. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action versus speculative foreign-exchange movements.
On the USD’s front, the ADP Employment Change report for April will be published on Wednesday. The attention will shift to the US April jobs data later on Friday. The US economy is projected to see 60,000 job additions in April. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- AUD/JPY slumps to around 112.75 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term.
- The first upside barrier to watch is 113.60; the initial support level is seen at 112.25.
The AUD/JPY cross tumbles to near 112.75 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on suspected interventions from Japanese authorities.
Traders remain on edge over the potential for Japanese authorities to step back into the market after last week’s intervention to curb weakness. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action against speculative foreign-exchange movements.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35% from 4.10% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the current monetary policy is "a bit restrictive," providing the board space to monitor how the Middle East conflict and domestic data evolve.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact, while price also remains over the lower Bollinger Band, hinting at nearby downside protection. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the 50 area, suggesting momentum has cooled and leaving the pair vulnerable to consolidation even within a generally constructive bias.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day simple moving average, at 113.60, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 114.85. On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25, with a deeper floor at the 100-day EMA around 109.52, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a broader corrective pullback develops.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- WTI drifts lower for the second straight day amid the optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal.
- The overnight breakdown below the 200-hour SMA backs the case for a further depreciating move.
- Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the $38.2% Fibo. level before placing fresh bets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some follow-through sellers for the second straight day and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity currently trades near mid-$97.00s, down nearly 2.5% for the day, and seems vulnerable to extend the recent pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched last Thursday.
US President Donald Trump said that ‘Project Freedom’ – aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see if an agreement with Iran can be finalised. Furthermore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now and that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran. This, in turn, fuels hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, the failed attempt to sustain gains above $98 has tilted the short-term structure lower. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 37. Momentum indicators hint that downside pressure is still dominant despite some intraday stabilization.
The subsequent slide, however, stalls near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the April monthly low. The said support is pegged near the $96.40 region and should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, would reaffirm the near-term negative bias and pave the way for further losses. Crude Oil prices might then accelerate the downfall towards the 50% retracement at $93.09 en route to deeper Fibonacci floors at $89.76 and $85.02 ahead of the cycle low region near $78.97.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-hour SMA at $98.63, while a stronger barrier aligns at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $100.55. Only a decisive recovery above these levels would ease the current bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 1-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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