Forex News
- WTI price faces some selling pressure to near $85.30 in Tuesday’s early Asian session, down 4.95% on the day.
- Trump said he is highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran.
- Hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations to end the US war in Iran weigh on crude oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.30 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. WTI falls to its lowest since August amid optimism around diplomatic efforts to end the war in the Middle East, even as attacks in the region continue. Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report later on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that it was “highly unlikely” he would order extensive strikes on Iran, but added that it depends on the country signing a “very strong agreement.”
On Monday, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that he met with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in Washington, DC, to discuss advancing talks between the US and Iran.
Al Arabiya source said that a new Qatar-Pakistan proposal would allow Washington to permit Iran to enrich uranium on its soil up to 3.67%, with Tehran agreeing to this limit. The initiative is part of efforts to relaunch negotiations between the two countries, alongside a US offer to release Iranian assets valued between $6 billion and $9 billion if an agreement is reached.
"This seems to have encouraged sellers on the prospects for peace even while the actual fighting is not slowing down," TACenergy analysts said in a note.
Elsewhere, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on Sunday at Saudi oil giant Aramco's corporate office in the heart of the financial district of the capital, Riyadh. The Saudi energy ministry said that debris from the attempted attack blew out windows across several floors.
Oil volatility persists as US-Iran diplomacy remains uncertain
Analysts at Commerzbank note that oil markets "remain volatile as investors assess whether the Democrats' control of Congress could accelerate diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict." They add that "reports that Iran is reviewing proposals concerning its nuclear programme offered some encouragement, although no comprehensive agreement has been announced and risks to Gulf shipping remain," keeping sentiment fragile.
Technical Analysis: WTI turns bearish bias under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of WTI US Oil is bearish as price holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands lower band, underscoring a break below the recent volatility floor. The Bollinger Bands 20-period SMA and the upper band remain far overhead, highlighting the extent of the current pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.73 flirts with oversold conditions, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than a confirmed reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $86.40, followed by a nearby barrier at the Bollinger Bands lower band around $86.65, forming a tight resistance cluster just above the market. Beyond that, the Bollinger mid-line at $96.35 marks a more significant structural cap, ahead of the upper band near $106.05, which defines a broader ceiling for any stronger corrective recovery. With no clear support levels derived from the provided indicators below $85.30, traders will likely look to prior price lows and psychological handles for potential demand, while the current configuration suggests rallies are prone to being sold as long as price remains below these overhead technical levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/USD gains 0.88% to 0.6924 as risk appetite improves.
- WTI drops nearly 4.50% amid unconfirmed US-Iran diplomatic progress.
- December Fed hike odds reach 82% ahead of US CPI.
The Aussie Dollar makes a U-turn, rises 0.88% as the US Dollar loses ground amid growing speculation that Washington and Tehran may be close of a deal, while investors brace for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6924.
AUD/USD rebounds as plunging Oil prices weaken the Dollar, ahead of US CPI
Wall Street finished Monday’s session with gains, as US President Donald Trump said that it was “highly unlikely” that he would order new strikes on Iran.
Newswires, not confirmed by major outlets, read “US-Iran nuclear talks reportedly revived,” with Al Arabiya reporting that sources said that a Qatari-Pakistan proposal is the first step toward a potential resolution of the conflict. The deal reveals that the US agreed to allow uranium enrichment in Iran up to 3.67%.
The latter sent Oil prices tumbling, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) registering losses of nearly 4.50% at $86.37.
In the US, Fed speakers were hawkish, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying that the risks lie on the inflation side of the US central bank's dual mandate, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated that services inflation has accelerated over the past few months, complicating the argument that elevated prices are only tariff-driven.
Data revealed the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations in October, with one-year inflation expectations seen at 3.9% unchanged, for three years at 3.3% and for five years, also steady at 3%.
Last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls report increased the chances that the Federal Reserve will increase rates at the December meeting, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. The odds are at 82%, up from last Friday’s 76%.
Ahead, the US economy will see the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9% YoY. Core CPI is forecast to rise from 2.6% to 2.8% YoY.
In Australia, the docket is light with the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence for November.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6922, extending a pullback beneath its major simple moving averages and keeping a bearish near-term tone. The latest 50/100/200-day simple moving averages cluster around 0.7040 as a cap above spot, while price still rests on a series of rising trend-line supports initiated between 0.6673 and 0.6897, suggesting a corrective decline within a broader constructive structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.8 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure but not yet oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is provided by the triple simple moving average cluster near 0.7040, ahead of the horizontal barrier at 0.7198, while the longer-term downward trend line originating at 0.8015 remains a distant obstacle. On the downside, nearby support is concentrated around the upward trend-line pivots at 0.6897, followed by secondary trend-line floors at 0.6865 and 0.6833, before a deeper structural base emerges from the older rising trend line starting at 0.6673.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.72% | -0.67% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.86% | -1.62% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.72% | 0.05% | 0.41% | 0.68% | -0.14% | -0.90% | 0.61% | |
| GBP | 0.67% | -0.05% | 0.36% | 0.63% | -0.19% | -0.95% | 0.55% | |
| JPY | 0.35% | -0.41% | -0.36% | 0.29% | -0.52% | -1.29% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.68% | -0.63% | -0.29% | -0.81% | -1.57% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.52% | 0.81% | -0.77% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | 1.62% | 0.90% | 0.95% | 1.29% | 1.57% | 0.77% | 1.53% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | -0.61% | -0.55% | -0.22% | 0.07% | -0.75% | -1.53% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said in an interview with El Financiero that the Mexican central bank has been considering rate cuts since September.
Last week, Banxico reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, unexpectedly, from 6.50% to 6.25% on a 3-2 vote split, with Deputy Governors Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath opting to hold rates, as inflation has continued to rise, though it remains within the 3% plus or minus 1% range.
Regarding the exchange rate, she added that there is still an appreciation, compared to the average of the USD/MXN exchange rate held in 2025, adding that “The importance of exchange rate behavior under our free-floating regime lies in its potential impact on inflation. And we know that the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to consumer prices in Mexico is small. This is even more noticeable in an environment of slack.”
She added that going forward, “maintaining the rate at its current level – 6.25% – for an extended period will support the convergence of inflation to the target and will be adequate to address external macroeconomic challenges.”
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
- Gold gains nearly 1% above $4,100 as US Dollar weakness accelerates.
- WTI plunges nearly 6% while December Fed hike odds reach 84%.
- China's central bank adds 25.8 metric tons to Gold reserves ahead of US CPI.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1.50% above $4,130 on Monday as the Greenback weakens, even though last Friday’s stellar US jobs data triggered a modest hawkish repricing, with markets increasing bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December.
XAU/USD advances as Oil plummets, weighing on the USD despite rising Fed tightening speculation
US equities are recovering, reflecting a risk-on mood, in part because US President Donald Trump said it's “highly unlikely” he will order further strikes on Iran. Consequently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, tumbled nearly 6% to $85.00, dragging the Greenback lower due to its positive correlation.
As of writing, reports emerged that US-Iran nuclear talks had been revived. Al-Arabiya, citing sources, reported that a Qatar-Pakistani proposal would allow Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67%, with Washington reportedly agreeing to the terms and Tehran accepting the proposal.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against its peers, is down 0.46% to 101.81. On the other hand, the US 10-year Treasury yield rises two basis points to 4.889% as traders begin to price in further tightening after last Friday’s jobs report.
Nonfarm Payrolls crushed estimates, pushing the Unemployment Rate down from 4.2% to 4.1%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of a December rate increase are 84%, up from last Friday’s 76%.
Due to its non-yielding nature, Gold usually fares badly amid high interest rate scenarios, but remains supported by central bank buying, as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added nearly 25.8 metric tons of the precious metal to its reserves in October, its largest monthly purchase in three years, according to the World Gold Council.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossed the wires. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented that there’s no base case (in rates) for December, adding that the risk lies on the inflation side of the mandate.
Earlier, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee was hawkish, saying that services inflation is beginning to “pick up,” that it has become a “big problem,” and that the Fed has to come to terms with failure on inflation.
Eyes shift to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which is expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9% YoY in October. Core CPI is forecast to rise from 2.6% to 2.8% YoY.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold struggles at $4,100 and retreats
Gold price begins the week on a positive note, but it remains below last Thursday’s high of $4,146. Price action shows a modest jump, but momentum suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bracing for the 50-neutral level.
For a bullish continuation, XAU/USD must clear the confluence of the 100- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), at $4,191 and $4,201, respectively. Once hurdled, the next stop is the psychological $4,300.
On the downside, sellers must push Gold below $4,100, then $4,000. Once cleared, the next area of interest would be the November 4 daily low at $3,919, followed by the October 30 year-to-date low at $3,879.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar (USD) has partially faded Friday’s strong advance, coming under fresh downside pressure following reignited speculation over a probable US-Iran agreement, which in turn weighed heavily on crude oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has started the week on the back foot, returning to the sub-102.00 region amid a slight decline in US Treasury yields across the curve, while investors remained cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data. The NFIB Business Optimism Index is due in the first turn ahead of the ADP Employment Change Weekly, the Inflation Rate, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories.
EUR/USD has left behind two daily drops in a row, regaining upside traction and challenging the key 1.1200 barrier. The speeches by the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane are due in an otherwise empty domestic docket.
GBP/USD has traded with marked gains along with the rest of its risk-linked peers, reclaiming the area beyond 1.3400 the figure after two straight daily losses. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is due, followed by the speeches by the BoE’s Lombardelli and Pill.
USD/JPY has kickstarted the week on the defensive, breaking below the 158.00 barrier while extending the multi-day consolidative theme for yet another day. Household Spending data are due alongside Current Account results, Bank Lending prints, and the Eco Watchers Survey.
AUD/USD has set aside two consecutive daily pullbacks, retaking the 0.6900 mark and beyond on the back of the strong improvement in the sentiment surrounding the risk complex. The Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge and the NAB Business Confidence are due next in Oz.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have resumed their decline, reversing two daily advances in a row and flirting with the area of multi-week troughs below the $87.00 mark per barrel amid fresh optimism around the US-Iran-Hormuz conflict.
Gold has climbed to two-day highs north of the $4,100 mark per troy ounce following the US Dollar’s renewed offered stance, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and another negative day of crude oil prices.
Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Tom Barkin said that “government, not consumer debt is at a historic level.” He added that there’s “no base case” regarding interest rates for the December meeting. The statements were made during a speech at the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina.
Barkin suggested that the “current policy rate [is] likely around or slightly below neutral” and that the last job report was healthy, but that he stills see a low-hire, low-fire environment.
Key highlights:
Government debt, not consumer debt is at historic level
No base case for December meeting
Hard to know impact of elections on the economy
Current policy rate likely around or slightly below neutral
Would an advantage if each Fed policy meeting were set to include two full months of economic data
Last jobs report was healthy but still see firms in low-hire, low-fire environment.
I do not think ballot measures approved in recent elections will impede data center expansion, firms will find somewhere to build
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.56% | -0.55% | -0.30% | 0.07% | -0.69% | -1.45% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.56% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.63% | -0.14% | -0.89% | 0.60% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | -0.01% | 0.28% | 0.61% | -0.15% | -0.90% | 0.59% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | -0.27% | -0.28% | 0.35% | -0.41% | -1.17% | 0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.63% | -0.61% | -0.35% | -0.76% | -1.51% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.76% | -0.75% | 0.74% | |
| NZD | 1.45% | 0.89% | 0.90% | 1.17% | 1.51% | 0.75% | 1.50% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.60% | -0.59% | -0.32% | 0.02% | -0.74% | -1.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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