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ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that South Korea’s March consumer price inflation rose modestly, with government fuel caps and food vouchers limiting the impact of higher Oil costs. Core inflation eased slightly, but ING expects recent energy and currency moves to push prices higher in coming months. The Bank of Korea is projected to stay cautious as it monitors external shocks.

Oil and currency seen lifting prices

"South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in March (vs 2.0% in February, 2.3% market consensus). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, below the market consensus of 0.6%. Rising global oil prices explained most of the increase, though the impact was smaller than expected."

"Government measures such as the fuel price cap and food vouchers helped to reduce the impact on consumers. Transportation prices rose the most, by 5% YoY, compared to the previous month’s 1.1%. But food prices declined to 0.5% from the previous month’s 2.1%."

"The March figures indicate that the uptick in commodity prices has not yet broadened to other products or services. Excluding food and energy, core inflation edged down to 2.2% (vs 2.3% in February, 2.1% market consensus)."

"Although today’s inflation increase came in below expectations, we expect the recent rise in energy prices to exert a stronger influence in the months ahead. Fuel costs continued to rise despite the price cap. We also expect currency impacts to feed through to domestic prices in the coming months."

"Price pressures remain relatively contained due to government support, even as domestic demand is poised to weaken. Thus, the Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.5% at the April meeting. The BoK will likely take a wait-and-see approach as it evaluates whether external shocks are contained or intensify."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• NZD/USD trades near 0.5700 with downside pressure amid strong USD demand.
• Donald Trump's Iran stance boosts safe-haven flows.
• Hormuz Strait headlines offer brief relief but fail to shift overall bearish bias.

The NZD/USD pair is trading around the 0.5710 region, maintaining a bearish tone amid heightened geopolitical tensions and risk aversion, as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens.

The Greenback remains well supported after Donald Trump signaled a more aggressive stance toward Iran, warning that additional weeks of conflict are likely. Reports also suggest that Iran is not currently interested in negotiations, keeping markets on edge. However, sentiment briefly improved during the American session after headlines indicated that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Despite this temporary relief, safe-haven demand continues to underpin the USD, weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

On the domestic front, New Zealand has no major data releases today, leaving the NZD exposed to external drivers. Earlier indicators, including softer growth momentum and cautious sentiment, continue to limit the Kiwi's upside potential.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5716. The near-term bias is mildly bearish, as price holds below the descending 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.5731 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5806, keeping the pair capped by a layered moving average barrier overhead. Recent candles show repeated failures to sustain above the short-term average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 stays below the 50 midline, reinforcing persistent downside pressure rather than a momentum recovery.

Immediate support is located at 0.5715, where a horizontal level underpins the current consolidation area, followed by 0.5705 if selling extends. On the upside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5726, with a tighter cap at 0.5730 aligning near the 20-period SMA, and a break above this band would open the way toward the distant resistance cluster starting at 0.5907. As long as the pair trades below 0.5730, rallies are vulnerable to renewed supply within this broadly negative 4-hour setup.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• GBP/USD dropped 0.65% on Thursday to close near 1.3220; the pair has now fallen more than 650 pips from January's high near 1.3870, and the 2026 low around 1.3080 is the next obvious level of interest.
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back on rate hike pricing on Tuesday, saying markets are "getting ahead of themselves," but traders are still betting on at least two hikes this year.
• Friday's US NFP report drops at 12:30 GMT while equity markets are closed for Good Friday, creating a thin-liquidity setup that could amplify moves in either direction.

Thursday's session was a downer for the British Pound. GBP/USD opened near 1.3300, sold off steadily through the day, and closed around 1.3220, losing 0.65%. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 1.3400 and the 200-day EMA around 1.3360 both remain a tricky technical hurdle, and the pair continues to close well below both. The Stochastic RSI sits at 73, which is elevated but not yet overbought, meaning there is room for the selloff to extend before momentum indicators start flashing warning signs. Looking lower, there is not much standing between current levels and the 2026 low near 1.3080 set in mid-March.

How the Pound went from rate cuts to rate hikes in six weeks

It is worth stepping back and appreciating how dramatically the outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) has shifted since the Iran war began. In February, markets were pricing in at least two rate cuts for 2026, with a move as early as March looking like a near certainty. The BoE had already cut rates by 150 basis points since August 2024, bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, and UK inflation had been falling toward the 2% target. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed, Oil surged above $100, and everything changed. By mid-March, swap markets had flipped entirely, pricing in as many as four rate hikes. That number has since come down to around two, but the mere fact that the market went from expecting easing to pricing tightening in the span of weeks tells you how much damage the energy shock has done to the UK's inflation outlook. The BoE's own staff now projects Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching 3.5% by the third quarter of 2026, up from a pre-war forecast of around 2%.

Bailey says hold, but the data might not let him

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey tried to calm things down on Tuesday, telling Reuters that markets are "getting ahead of themselves" on rate hike expectations. His message was clear: the BoE held in March by unanimous vote, and the April 30 meeting will be another assessment, not a foregone conclusion. But Bailey is walking a tightrope. JP Morgan economist Allan Monks has argued that the conditions for an April hike could be met if energy prices stay elevated and firms begin passing costs through to consumers. Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja has gone further, saying that risks of "early and multiple hikes no longer look misplaced." The UK is particularly vulnerable here. The country imports roughly 40% of its Oil and up to 60% of its natural gas, making it one of the most energy-exposed economies in the G7. The Ofgem price cap shields households until July, but after that, the full force of higher wholesale energy costs will hit consumer bills. BoE policymaker Megan Greene noted in the March minutes that "the risk of inflation persistence has risen, perhaps significantly" in light of the supply shock.

The technical damage is hard to ignore

From a chart perspective, Thursday's breakdown is the kind of session that changes the tone of a trend. GBP/USD had been consolidating between 1.3200 and 1.3450 for most of March, with the 200-day EMA acting as a rough floor. That floor is gone now. The pair closed more than 100 pips below the 200-day EMA, and both moving averages are likely to begin curling lower if price stays at these levels. The 2026 range is well defined, with the January high at 1.3870 as the ceiling and the March low near 1.3080 as the floor. A retest of that floor from current levels would represent barely another 140 pips of downside. Below 1.3080, the next area of interest does not emerge until the 1.2950-1.3000 zone, which dates back to late 2025 price action. On the upside, the broken 200-day EMA close to 1.3350 becomes the first level that bulls would need to reclaim to stabilize the picture, and that is now more than 100 pips overhead.

Friday's NFP and the long weekend gap risk

The immediate catalyst is Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report out of the US, due at 12:30 GMT. The consensus is for roughly +57K jobs, a rebound from February's -92K, and Thursday's strong jobless claims print of 202K suggests the risks may be skewed to the upside. US equity markets are closed for Good Friday, which means liquidity across all Dollar pairs, including GBP/USD, will be thinner than usual. A strong NFP number would likely push the Dollar higher and drag GBP/USD closer to the March lows. A miss could offer a brief reprieve, but with the BoE stuck between an inflation shock and a stalling economy, Sterling does not have a clean bullish catalyst of its own to lean on. The broader picture remains one where the Pound is caught between a Federal Reserve (Fed) that cannot cut and a BoE that cannot decide whether to hike. Until one of those central banks blinks, or the Oil shock resolves, the path of least resistance for GBP/USD continues to point lower. The question heading into the long weekend is not whether the pair retests 1.3080, but whether it holds when it gets there.

GBP/USD daily chart

• USD/JPY climbed to near 159.60 on Thursday as the US Dollar strengthened on surging Oil prices and fading Fed rate cut expectations, putting the pair within striking distance of the critical 160.00 level.
• Japan's MOF has repeatedly warned of "decisive action" against disorderly Yen moves, and 160 is the exact level that triggered nearly $62 billion in intervention spending back in 2024.
• Friday's NFP report drops at 12:30 GMT while US equity markets sit closed for Good Friday, creating a dangerous setup where the US Dollar could move sharply on a thin liquidity backdrop.
• The BoJ's April 27-28 meeting looms as the next major policy inflection point, with markets pricing roughly a 71% chance of a rate hike.

USD/JPY is heading into Friday's Asia session trading just below 159.60, and the setup going into the long Easter weekend is about as uncomfortable as it gets for Yen traders on either side. The pair has rallied roughly a full figure from Wednesday's lows near 158.50, driven entirely by the US Dollar reasserting itself after President Trump's Wednesday night address killed the de-escalation narrative that had briefly pulled Oil below $100 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil surged around 8% on Thursday to near $110, Treasury yields firmed, and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations faded further. All of that is Yen-negative. But the closer USD/JPY gets to 160, the louder Tokyo's warnings get, and the more dangerous it becomes to be long.

The 160.00 line: Why this number matters more than most

This is not just a round number. In April-May 2024, when USD/JPY last pushed through 160, Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) deployed a record $62 billion in intervention over roughly a month, causing violent multi-hundred pip reversals with no warning. In January 2026, the pair briefly breached 159, and speculation immediately surfaced that Tokyo had conducted a stealth intervention, a suspicion bolstered by reports that the New York Fed had conducted a "rate check" on behalf of the US Treasury. The MOF has never formally confirmed the January episode, but the market got the message. Since then, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have both explicitly stated that authorities are prepared to take "decisive action" against excessive Yen depreciation. That language is the standard pre-intervention playbook. The problem for Tokyo right now is that the Yen's weakness is not being driven by speculative carry trades the way it was in 2024. This time it is Oil. Japan imports roughly 90% of its crude from the Middle East, and with WTI above $110 and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the country faces an energy import bill that structurally weakens the Yen regardless of what the MOF does. That makes intervention a bandage, not a fix. But it does not mean Tokyo will not use it.

NFP drops into a closed market

Friday's March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report lands at 12:30 GMT, and here is the problem: US equity markets are closed for Good Friday. The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and bond markets are all dark. CME Globex futures will trade, but liquidity will be a fraction of a normal session. The consensus expectation is for roughly +57K jobs, a rebound from February's brutal -92K print, which was the worst single-month loss in recent memory. Thursday's weekly jobless claims reading of 202K, well below the 212K consensus, suggests the labor market may be stronger than the February number implied. ADP's March print of +62K, released Wednesday, also pointed to a modest recovery. But here is what matters for USD/JPY: a strong NFP print would push Fed rate cut expectations even further out, widening the US-Japan yield gap and putting more upward pressure on the pair heading into Monday's reopening. A weak print could give the Yen a temporary lifeline, but with Oil still elevated, any relief would likely be short-lived.

The BoJ is stuck, and the market knows it

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates at 0.75% at its last meeting, and the April 27-28 meeting is shaping up as the most consequential in months. Markets currently price a roughly 71% probability of a hike, and new board member Toichiro Asada signaled a "cautious, data-driven" approach at his first briefing this week. The fundamental case for hiking is strong: Japanese wage growth is running above 4% annually, core-core inflation (excluding food and energy) sits at 2.5%, and Yen weakness is amplifying imported inflation through higher fuel and freight costs. But the BoJ is trapped. Hiking into an energy shock risks tipping an already fragile recovery, while standing pat allows the Yen to weaken further, compounding the very inflation problem rates are supposed to address. Wellington Management noted in a recent report that the January intervention episode, particularly the suspected US Treasury involvement, actually makes an April hike more likely, not less. Their view is that intervention buys time but does not fix the underlying cause, which is the still-wide US-Japan rate differential sitting at roughly 275 basis points.

Heading into Asia with no good options

For USD/JPY traders heading into Friday's Asia session, the risk matrix is unusually lopsided. Longs face the intervention cliff at 160, a level where history says the MOF has been willing to spend tens of billions of dollars to defend. Shorts face the structural headwinds of a rising Oil price, a firmer US Dollar, and a BoJ that is still months behind the curve on normalization. NFP adds another layer of uncertainty on a day when liquidity will be thin and US equity futures will be the only real-time gauge of Dollar sentiment. The path of least resistance still looks modestly higher for USD/JPY, but "modestly" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. If the pair pushes above 160 in thin Friday trade, the MOF will face a choice: intervene into a holiday-thinned market and risk being overwhelmed by fundamental flows, or wait until Monday and risk the pair running even further. Neither option is good. And that is the story of USD/JPY right now: a pair where every participant, from the BoJ to the MOF to the speculative community, has a reason to act and a reason to wait.

USD/JPY daily chart

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that China’s economy started 2026 slightly better than expected, driven by a sharp rise in exports and a swelling current account surplus. State-linked banks are recycling these surpluses into foreign assets, while higher commodity prices are expected to end deflation as producer prices and the GDP deflator turn positive over coming quarters.

Exports, current account surplus and deflation outlook

"The Chinese economy got off to a slightly better start to the new year than expected, once again buoyed by a sharp rise in exports."

"The already very high current account surplus is therefore likely to rise further this quarter."

"Data from the financial sector show that it is primarily Chinese banks that are recycling the surpluses and investing them in foreign assets."

"This suggests once again that the banking sector is actively intervening in the exchange rate to weaken the CNY by purchasing assets denominated in foreign currencies."

"However, trends in commodity prices strongly suggest that producer prices are likely to turn positive year-over-year as early as March. The GDP deflator should therefore follow suit by the second quarter at the latest."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD is currently under near-term pressure toward 1.2760, but the broader technical backdrop still points to a recovery phase in the second quarter. Key support is seen at 1.2660 and 1.2586, while the 55-week EMA around 1.2940 remains a significant resistance cap.

Recovery bias but short-term downside risk

"As of early March, USD/SGD has broken above the minor declining weekly trendline near 1.2755, indicating that the late-January low of 1.2586 may have been a near-term low. The breach of the trendline resistance, combined with the weekly slow stochastic turning higher from oversold territory, suggests that the risk is tilted toward a recovery in USD/SGD in the second quarter."

"However, it is premature to expect a major reversal, as any advance is expected to face significant resistance at 1.2900 (major declining weekly trendline) and 1.2950 (55-week EMA. For the expected recovery to materialise, USD/SGD must hold above the 1.2586 low, with near-term support at 1.2660."

"Last week, USD/SGD broke above the major declining weekly trendline resistance. Two days ago, USD/SGD rose to 1.2929, close to the 55-week EMA at 1.2940, before a sudden plunge sent it lower. Fading upward momentum may keep USD/SGD under pressure in the near term, but a positive weekly MACD suggests it is too early to call for a sustained move lower."

"Support is at the minor rising weekly trendline, now at 1.2760. A break below this level cannot be ruled out, but absent a pickup in downward momentum, the support at 1.2660 is unlikely to come under threat. The odds of USD/SGD breaking the late-January low of 1.2586 appear slim for now."

"On the upside, the 55-week EMA at 1.2939 remains a significant resistance."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Trump’s tougher rhetoric boosted the Dollar and pressured risk-sensitive currencies.
• Rising oil prices and firmer US yields added downside pressure.
• Hawkish RBA expectations and stronger trade data helped limit Aussie losses.

The Australian Dollar retreats by 0.36% on Thursday following harsh remarks by US President Donald Trump, who, rather than seeking to de-escalate the conflict, warned that it would last 2 to 3 weeks and would hit Iran harder. This boosted the Greenback, pushing the AUD/USD to a daily low of 0.6860 before stabilising around 0.6900

Aussie weakens as oil jumps and war fears darken sentiment again

Geopolitics continued to drive the narrative in the financial markets. Following Trump’s remarks, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields rose, as sentiment soured, sending global equities lower. Also, Oil prices rose, as depicted by WTI, up more than 11% and trading above the $111.00 per barrel milestone.

Trump’s speech reiterated that he does not need the Strait of Hormuz, while challenging US allies to work toward reopening it. Recently, he posted a video of a bridge blast in Iran in this Truth Social account and pressured Iran to reach a deal.

Meanwhile, US data showed the trade deficit widened to 3.0% to $84.6 billion in February, as imports increased 4.3% to $372.1 billion, while exports rose 4.2% to a record high of $314.8 billion.

Further data revealed that the US labor market remains firm, despite mixed figures. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 dipped from the previous print of 215K to 202K, beneath forecasts of 212K, while the US Challenger Grey & Christmas jobs report revealed that companies slashed over 60K in March.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth estimates for Q1 2026 fell 0.3% from 1.9% a day ago to 1.6% at an annual rate, after the US Balance of Trade data.

Despite this, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.46% at 100.01, as the New York close looms.

RBA expected to further tighten policy

In Australia, the goods trade surplus more than doubled in February due to higher Gold and farm exports, data revealed. This, along with slightly hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia and China’s NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI back in expansion territory, could push the AUD/USD higher.

RBA’s Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said on March 25 that the Middle East conflict has tightened financial conditions, but the supply shock also poses a risk to inflation.

The RBA’s last meeting minutes revealed that “Board members agreed that financial conditions needed to be restrictive,” and that the majority opted to demonstrate the bank’s “clear commitment to return inflation to target.”

The swaps market had priced in a 71% chance of an RBA rate hike at the May 5 meeting. Regarding this, Josh Williamson, chief Australian economist at Citi, said, “We now forecast another 25bp hike from the RBA in June, in addition to the 25bp hike expected in May," he added. "This takes our terminal to 4.6% in 2026, with rate cuts still expected in 2027.”

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6911. The near-term bias stays mildly bullish as price consolidates above the rising cluster of the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages around 0.70, keeping the broader uptrend from the 0.67 area intact despite the recent pullback. The sequence of higher supported closes along the latest upward-sloping trend line from 0.6897 underscores persistent dip-buying, while RSI around 43–45 has eased from prior overbought conditions without entering oversold territory, indicating a cooling of momentum rather than a trend reversal.

Initial support emerges at the 0.6900–0.6880 band, where the most recent swing low aligns with the rising trend-line zone, followed by deeper support near 0.6830 if that structure fails. On the topside, the first resistance stands at 0.7020, ahead of 0.7080, where prior highs capped advances and the moving averages begin to flatten. A daily close above 0.7080 would reopen the path toward the 0.7120–0.7150 area, while a decisive break below 0.6880 would neutralize the current bullish bias and expose the 0.68 handle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures aimed at defending the Indian Rupee (INR). The RBI has barred banks from offering rupee NDF contracts to residents and offshore users while keeping deliverable hedging channels open. Rao notes this may widen the onshore–offshore gap and that geopolitical risks and a possible third straight balance of payments deficit could keep the Rupee under pressure.

RBI steps up defence of INR

"In a move to further curb speculative trades and as a follow up to the change in the FX playbook last week, the RBI further tightened regulations on late Wednesday, by disallowing banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts to resident and offshore users. Authorised dealers can continue to offer deliverable FX derivative contracts to users to meet their hedging requirements provided that the user does not undertake offsetting non-deliverable derivative positions."

"This additional notification seeks to close the arbitrage window that had opened between the onshore and NDF markets after the previous directive, which had spurred a surge in corporate interest (as banks unwound), according to the wires."

"To recall, the RBI had earlier sought to curb banks’ daily net open positions in the onshore deliverable rupee market, effective April 10."

"Besides a strong open for the INR when trading resumes on Thursday in this holiday-shortened week, this additional ruling is expected to further widen the gap between onshore and offshore markets."

"Beyond these measures and on a more structural basis, markets will remain focused on geopolitical developments (oil prices jumped post-US speech this morning), in midst of which rupee could remain under pressure from the risk of a third consecutive year of balance of payment deficit."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Standard Chartered’s Ethan Lester notes that global manufacturing PMIs stayed in expansionary territory in March for an eighth straight month, even as the pace of growth eased from February’s 44‑month high. Asia offset ongoing contractions in Emerging Europe, while India’s PMI, though at a 3.5‑year low, remained the second strongest among 27 countries. Input price inflation and supply-chain delays surged following the Iran conflict, but employment and stockpiling were broadly stable and business confidence suggests only modest war-related disruption is expected.

Global manufacturing expands despite price surge

"Composite global manufacturing PMIs remained in expansionary (>50) territory during March for the eighth consecutive month."

"Globally, ongoing contractions across EM Europe economies (Türkiye, Russia, Poland) were offset by resilience in Asia."

"While India’s preliminary figure was the weakest in nearly 3.5 years, its performance remained the second strongest among our sample of 27 countries."

"The Iran conflict, which started on 28 February, was clearly reflected in higher reported supply chain and price pressures."

"Business confidence also held up surprisingly well, indicating expectations of only modest war-related disruption to production."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)