Forex News
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.9% q/q in Q2, matching consensus and up from 0.8% in Q1. This would lift annual core inflation to 3.7%, just below the RBA’s 3.8% projection. They also see headline CPI at 4.2% y/y in June, with higher rents and dwelling costs posing upside risks.
Core CPI forecast supports RBA debate
"We forecast RBA's preferred core CPI measure to rise by 0.9% q/q (consensus: 0.9%, Q1: 0.8%) in Q2, in line with consensus."
"This lifts the annual rate to 3.7%, which is slightly lower than the RBA forecast of 3.8% in its May Statement of Monetary Policy."
"We also forecast the June headline CPI to print at 4.2% y/y (consensus: 4.0%)."
"Higher rents and new dwelling purchase costs pose upside risks to our forecast and a hot CPI trimmed mean will ignite debate around another hike in the near-term as the labor market remains resilient."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD hits fresh monthly lows below 1.1360, drifting closer to 13-month lows at 1.1324.
- A mild risk appetite amid lower Oil prices has failed to support the Euro.
- The US Dollar rallies to fresh highs amid hopes of a surprise Fed rate hike on Thursday.
The Euro (EUR) is failing to draw any significant support from the truce in the Middle East and the lower Oil prices and keeps heading south against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. EUR/USD bears are testing fresh one-month lows below 1.1360, drawing near the year-to-date low of 1.1324.
Market optimism about a negotiated end of the US-Iran conflict and the 12% decline in Brent Oil prices have triggered a mild appetite for risk during the European session, with European stock markets showing marginal gains following a negative session in Asia.
Risk appetite, however, has not translated into a weaker US Dollar this time, as traders cling to hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a surprise rate hike later this week. Futures markets are pricing a 35% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, up from 25% a week ago, according to data by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, underpinning support for the US Dollar, which has reached fresh monthly highs against a basket of currencies.
Technical Analysis: Below 1.1324, the next target is the 1.1245 area
EUR/USD trades at 1.1362, holding a mild bearish trend, after being rejected at the 1.1420 area on Monday, with price action approaching year-to-date lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling lower from the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has entered negative levels although it remains near zero. Momentum is flat to slightly bearish, rather than impulsively directional so far.
If the pair confirms below the bottom of the monthly channel at 1.1360, bears are likely to be tempted by the 2026 trading floor of 1.1324. Below here, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210, emerges as the next target.
On the topside, Monday's high, at 1.1420, and the top of the monthly range at 1.1480 are the key levels to breach to ease bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- Gold falls as a firmer US Dollar outweighs support from declining Oil prices.
- Traders await the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing a 35% chance of a rate hike.
- XAU/USD approaches $4,000 support, with RSI on the daily chart holding below the neutral 50 level.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD), even as Oil prices extend their pullback on hopes of an end to the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,027, down 1.20% on the day, after failing to sustain gains above $4,100 on Monday.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the two sides were having “good talks” and that there was a “good chance something will happen,” but warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Iran denied holding direct talks with the United States.
Meanwhile, Oman presented Iran with a proposal for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz through “voluntary fees,” under which Iran would not have sole control of the key shipping route.
Oil prices have erased all the gains recorded last week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $80.30, extending its decline for a third consecutive day. Despite the sharp pullback, Oil prices remain elevated and continue to fuel inflation concerns.
While the US-Iran war stays at the forefront, attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate decision on Wednesday, which carries an unusually high risk of a surprise rate hike.
The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase.
Hawkish bets have strengthened since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led his first policy meeting in June. Warsh has repeatedly stressed the need to restore price stability as inflation runs above the 2% target.
Will $4,000 hold or break?
For Gold, the upcoming Fed decision could prove pivotal in determining whether the $4,000 support holds or gives way to a deeper corrective decline.
A surprise rate hike would put Gold at risk of falling below $4,000. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets while boosting the US Dollar and US Treasury yields.
The base case is a hawkish hold, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged while keeping the door open to an increase later this year as energy-driven inflation risks persist without a lasting resolution to the US-Iran war. Such an outcome could also leave Gold vulnerable to a break below $4,000.
Meanwhile, if the Fed adopts a less hawkish stance and views the energy shock as temporary, traders may scale back rate-hike bets. That could weaken the US Dollar and help Gold hold above the $4,000 support.
Technical analysis: Bears retain control below middle Bollinger Band
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias as it trades below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $4,072, which also represents the middle Bollinger Band.
The band structure shows spot trading in the lower half of the envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.42 stays below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that recovery attempts lack strong momentum within a still‑pressured trend backdrop flagged by an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 32, which signals persistent but moderating trend strength.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band and 20‑day SMA near $4,072, followed by the upper band around $4,179, where sellers could reassert control if tested.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000 handle, ahead of the lower Bollinger band near $3,964. A daily close below this latter floor would expose deeper losses and reinforce the prevailing bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) rate curves have repriced sharply, with more tightening now expected in Czech Republic and Poland and further easing in Hungary. He still sees mispricing versus Taborsky forecasts and expects selected CEE currencies, notably the Polish Zloty (PLN) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), to strengthen, targeting EUR/PLN below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358, while seeing EUR/CZK moving above 24.200.
Zloty and Forint seen outperforming peers
"The region saw a sharp recovery in rates yesterday, although this did not fully carry through to FX. Implied rate paths moved meaningfully, now pricing around 60bp of tightening in the Czech Republic and 40bp in Poland, alongside 50bp of easing in Hungary over an 18-month horizon. In the past two sessions alone, curves have shifted by roughly 15-30bp across the region."
"We still see material mispricing versus our forecasts, but market pricing is moving back into a plausible scenario range. We expect this normalisation to continue this week unless the US-Iran conflict re-escalates and oil prices rise further."
"Rates and FX have diverged sharply over the past two weeks. The rates rally and the reduced rate-hike premium are not supportive for FX, but given the current gaps and the recent lag in FX versus rates, we still see room for selected currencies to strengthen."
"We therefore continue to expect gains in the zloty and forint despite narrower rate differentials, with EUR/PLN moving below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358. By contrast, EUR/CZK does not benefit from the same dynamic and has closely tracked rates; we instead see scope for a move above 24.200. We also expect more dovish Czech National Bank comments this week, which could further support EUR/CZK upside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Indian Rupee adds more gains due to further weakness in oil prices.
- US President Trump confirms that strikes on Iran have halted to open the door to diplomacy.
- India’s GDP growth will likely slow down to 6.6% YoY this year.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the third trading day on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair falls to near 95.65 as a further decline in oil prices has strengthened the Indian currency.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 1.4% down at around Rs. 7,848, the lowest level seen in a week.
Given that India meets 85% of its energy demand through imports, a steep decline in oil prices reduces foreign outflows from India and hence improves the appeal of the Indian Rupee.
Trump confirms Iran negotiating with US
On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that Iran is talking to Washington about a deal and said “reaching one is possible”. Trump added that there’s plenty of time to reach a deal with Iran and that “we'll see what happens”, Axios reported. Trump added that he halted strikes on Iran to open the door to diplomacy, while maintaining the stance of expanding military aggression if talks failed.
The pause in the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran has resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices. However, it doesn’t mean that the energy supply is returning to normal, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Countdown to Fed’s policy starts
This week, the major trigger for financial markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 62% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The tool shows a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in the September policy meeting.
However, US President Trump urged Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends.
Experts warn of slower India’s GDP growth
According to the latest Reuters poll, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow 6.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) in the fiscal year ending March 2027, down from 7.7% in FY2025-26. Growth is then expected to edge up to 6.8% in FY2027-28. The report showing poll results also revealed that weak private investment and higher oil prices will weigh on India’s economic growth.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Indian currency will be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement next week.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR struggles to return above 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.65, holding in a corrective phase after recent gains as it slips just under the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 95.93. The loss of this short-term average as immediate resistance hints that upside momentum is fading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.6 sits near neutral territory, suggesting a consolidative rather than impulsive tone for now.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 95.9278 is the first barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to revive a more constructive bias and open the way for a retest of all-time highs around 97.10. Looking down, the 95.00 level will be the key support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- The Australian Dollar trades lower to near 0.6965 against the US Dollar on stagflation risks in Australia.
- RBA’s Bullock warns of a slowing economy and housing market, with risks to inflation remaining on the upside.
- The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is down against its major currency peers, trading 0.35% lower at around 0.6965 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean faces intense selling pressure following remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, which triggered fears of stagflation in the economy.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.11% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.06% | -0.19% | 0.29% | 0.06% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.17% | 0.28% | 0.04% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.23% | 0.23% | -0.00% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.23% | 0.48% | 0.21% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.29% | -0.28% | -0.23% | -0.48% | -0.22% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.21% | 0.22% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.18% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Earlier in the day, RBA’s Bullock warned of “Economy slowing, housing market cooling more than anticipated,” while keeping the option of cash rate hikes on the table to bring inflation down. Bullock didn’t offer any guidance for the upcoming policy meeting, but clarified that the board will have some difficult decisions to make if it thinks inflation is not coming down.
Technically, upside inflation risks and a subdued economic outlook prompt the risk of stagflation in an economy.
For fresh cues regarding the current status of inflation, investors await the Australian Q2 and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released on Wednesday. On an annualized basis, Australian Q2 and June CPI are expected to have grown steadily by 4.1% and 4%, respectively.
On the US Dollar front, financial markets await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to deliver any remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook, as he said in the June meeting that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
Economic Indicator
Quarterly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 29, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 4.1%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.
- USD/JPY trades around 163.90 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
- Markets expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged this week before a possible rate hike in September.
- The Bank of Japan is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish policy stance.
USD/JPY trades around 163.90 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.11% on the day, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy announcement on Friday. The lack of immediate catalysts is keeping the pair in a wait-and-see mode as markets look for greater clarity on the outlook for both central banks.
The US Dollar (USD) trades without a clear direction ahead of the Fed meeting, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is edging slightly higher. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets assign a roughly 62% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range, while continuing to price in a strong chance of a rate hike at the September meeting.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated at the previous meeting that forward guidance was “not well-suited to the current policy environment,” suggesting that policymakers are unlikely to provide significant signals about the future path of interest rates. However, market participants will closely watch for any clues on how long US inflation is expected to remain above the central bank’s 2% target.
In Japan, attention is now turning to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday. Markets expect the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1%, while maintaining a hawkish tone on the monetary policy outlook, supported by inflation conditions that remain consistent with a gradual normalization of policy.
Against this backdrop, monetary policy divergence between the United States (US) and Japan remains the key focus for investors. Until both the Fed and the BoJ deliver their policy decisions, USD/JPY is likely to remain range-bound as traders refrain from taking aggressive positions ahead of these two major events.
Japan outlook softens as BoJ’s cautious hiking path meets elevated USD/JPY
Strategists at BNP Paribas expect Japan’s expansion to lose some momentum, projecting that “annual GDP growth [will] stand at 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.1% in 2025.” Against this softer growth backdrop, they note that the Bank of Japan has already begun normalising policy, having “initiated a cautious process of ‘adjustment in the degree of monetary accommodation’ in 2024, lifting the policy rate to 1.0% so far (previously negative) – the highest since 1995.” BNP Paribas anticipates that this gradual approach will continue, with “a 25pb hike about every four to five months until a 2.50% terminal rate in 2028.”
In the currency market, DBS observes that USD/JPY “remains high near 164,” but characterises the move as increasingly fatigued, saying the pair is “exhausted by Japan’s policymakers’ talk of supporting the currency through interventions, more gradual rate hikes, and using the GPIF to purchase Japanese assets.”
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.11% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.06% | -0.18% | 0.29% | 0.06% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.17% | 0.28% | 0.04% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.23% | 0.23% | -0.01% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.23% | 0.48% | 0.21% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.29% | -0.28% | -0.23% | -0.48% | -0.22% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.21% | 0.22% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.18% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim argues that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s surprise resignation, following earlier high-profile departures, heightens concerns over policy continuity and institutional credibility as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) trades near historic lows versus the US Dollar (USD). Market focus now shifts to the choice of successor, with some candidates seen as reassuring and others potentially undermining confidence, keeping USD/IDR supported near term.
Governor exit keeps USD/IDR supported
"The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) faces renewed depreciation pressure following the surprise resignation of long-serving Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo yesterday."
"Warjiyo, who had led the central bank since 2018, stepped down for personal reasons and will be replaced on an interim basis by Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti. His departure follows the exit of the well-respected former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani in 2025, who was widely regarded as an anchor of fiscal discipline. The exit of another key policymaker will raise questions over policy continuity and institutional credibility going forward."
"Warjiyo had come under increasing scrutiny as IDR depreciated to a record low against the USD earlier this year, with USD/IDR rising above 18,200. This was higher than at the height of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997."
"The weakness reflected a combination of factors, including the spike in global oil prices, concerns over BI's independence and policy credibility, the risk of a downgrade to frontier-market status by MSCI, and concerns that higher fuel subsidy costs could push the fiscal deficit above the statutory ceiling of 3% of GDP."
"Market attention will now focus on BI's independence and policy continuity, with the choice of Warjiyo's permanent successor likely to be critical. The appointment of Senior Deputy Governor Damayanti would likely ease investor concerns by providing greater policy continuity."
"Another potential candidate is Deputy Governor Thomas Djiwandono, President Prabowo's nephew, whose appointment could renew investor concerns over central bank independence. In the near term, USD/IDR is likely to remain supported, limiting the scope for a sustained IDR recovery."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.53 per troy ounce, down 1.49% from the $58.40 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 19.07% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 57.53 |
1 Gram | 1.85 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.27 on Tuesday, up from 69.81 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that the Dollar is trading on diverging themes versus Developed Market and Asia-ex Japan currencies, with Fed expectations central. Futures are pricing a 38% chance of a surprise rate hike at Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting. Wee highlights that USD bulls could be disappointed if the Fed stays on hold and ends forward guidance.
Fed pricing drives Dollar performance
"The FX market ran different themes against Developed Market and Asia-ex Japan currencies overnight, balancing monetary policy in the former and oil price relief in the latter."
"The futures market is not ruling out a surprise hike at Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting, which it has priced in at a 38% probability."
"The DXY basket of currencies will likely depreciate if and only if this happens."
"All said, Warsh could disappoint USD bulls as well by seeking cover to deliver nothing amid the latest retreat in oil prices and by aiming to end forward guidance to keep rates on hold without signalling a September hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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