Forex News
- EUR/USD gains ground to the highest in almost a month, around 1.1245, in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in US midterm elections.
- Eurozone inflation hits 4% for the first time in three years.
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.1245 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) as the Democrats take control of the US Congress in midterm elections. Germany’s Factory Orders data for September is due later on Thursday.
The Democrats win a majority in both the US Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, taking control from Republicans. This achieved major victories in several Republican strongholds for the first time in decades, as tens of millions of voters delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump.
"Given the Democrats are favoured right now, our expectation is that they will take control of both the House and the Senate," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. If that pans out, the US dollar could sell off further from here, because a Democratic sweep would limit government spending over Trump's term,” Carol added.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in the Eurozone jumped to 4.0% in October, its highest level in three years, a flash estimate showed on Wednesday. This figure followed a rise of 3.8% in September and came in line with the market expectations. This report marked the first time inflation in the Eurozone has hit or exceeded the 4% threshold since September 2023's reading of 4.3%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rate at 2.5% last month, following a hike of 25 basis points (bps) in September. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 72.0% odds of a hike at the ECB’s final meeting of the year in December, up from 71.8% chance before inflation print, according to CNBC.
Eurozone data firm but ECB officials flag risk of December tightening
Analysts at Scotiabank note that the latest Eurozone data were mixed but broadly resilient, with “Eurozone October CPI … confirmed at 4.0% Y/Y (2.5% for core)” even as “final Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs were marked down slightly to 51.4 and 51.7 respectively on downward revisions to French data.” On the policy front, Scotiabank highlights a notably hawkish tone from ECB officials: “ECB Governor Nagel said Tuesday the inflation picture has worsened and that policy would probably have to be tightened in December.” They add that his colleague “Sleijpen said the Iran shock was more persistent than had been thought – although there were no second-round inflation effects visible at this point – while Governor Kocher said a December rate hike was likely unless circumstances change.”
Nagel flags likely December hike as inflation risks intensify
ECB’s Nagel delivers a more hawkish message than usual, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.2 versus a historic 7.0, as a December rate hike is described as “very likely” amid inflation pressures that are already nearing an adverse scenario. The insistence that the ECB “can and must” prevent an energy shock from morphing into broad-based inflation underscores a strong tightening bias that should underpin the Euro on rate expectations.
Nagel’s confidence that France will resolve budget issues, coupled with the remark that this is “not a task for monetary policy,” signals a clear division between fiscal and monetary responsibilities, reinforcing the case for the ECB to stay focused on price stability. For FX markets, the combination of higher-than-expected inflation and explicit openness to further tightening tilts risks toward a firmer Euro, especially if incoming data validate the adverse-scenario narrative into December.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains capped under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/USD remains capped in the broader context as it stays below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the medium-term tone bearish despite the recent rebound. Price is edging just under the upper Bollinger Band, while holding above the Bollinger 20-day SMA, suggesting a short-term recovery within a still-dominant downside structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.9 has normalized from prior oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure has eased but not yet turned into a convincing bullish trend.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1262, with a more meaningful barrier at the 100-day SMA at 1.1420, which should limit gains unless decisively reclaimed. On the downside, initial support is provided by the Bollinger 20-day SMA near 1.1195, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1130, where the recent recovery cycle would likely be challenged if bears regain control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Australia's September Trade Surplus widened significantly to A$2,826M, driven by rising exports and falling imports.
- The US Dollar weakened due to political gridlock fears following a Democratic sweep in midterm elections.
- Resilient US economic data supports the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, capping the Greenback's downside.
AUD/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.7010 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gained ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) inched higher following the release of Australia’s latest Trade Balance report.
Australia’s Trade Surplus widened significantly to A$2,826 million month-over-month in September, up from a revised surplus of A$185 million in the previous reading (initially reported as A$495 million). Australian exports rose by 2.3% in September, following a revised 3.1% increase in August (initially 3.7%), while imports fell by 3.3% after growing by a revised 6.2% the previous month (initially 5.8%).
Further upward momentum for the AUD/USD pair stemmed from broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback faced heavy selling pressure after a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections resulted in control of both houses of Congress, raising concerns over potential political gridlock in Washington. Additionally, market expectations of an end to the Middle East conflict following the election outcome triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, adding further pressure on the USD.
Despite these headwinds, the US Dollar's decline may remain limited due to resilient domestic economic data. Private-sector employment grew by 86,000 in October, according to the ADP report, beating the expected 69,000, though September’s figure was revised downward to 86,000 from 90,000. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI slipped slightly to 54.5 from 54.9, just below the forecasted 54.8, but remained safely within expansionary territory.
These solid economic indicators provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with room to maintain its hawkish stance in its effort to return inflation to the 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 80% probability of another rate hike in December. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US economic releases, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
USD softens as post-election risk appetite lifts high-beta FX
Analysts at Scotiabank report that the “USD is weakening broadly in response to Tuesday’s US midterm election results,” with the pattern of moves across majors pointing to a clear improvement in risk sentiment. They note that the relative performance within G10 FX “is suggestive of risk appetite,” as the Mexican Peso leads with “a near-1% gain on the day” and the NZD, NOK and AUD are “up between 0.6-0.7%,” while even the EUR and GBP “show relatively sizeable 0.5% rallies from Tuesday’s close.”
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu Nov 05, 2026 00:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2,826M
Consensus: 1,200M
Previous: 495M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7156 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7180 and 6.6783 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- WTI attracts some sellers for the second straight day amid hopes of an end to the Iran war.
- The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play.
- The prevailing USD selling bias could further support oil prices, warranting caution for bears.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – remains depressed for the second straight day on Thursday, trading just below mid-$87.00s during the Asian session and close to a near one-month low touched the previous day.
Democratic leaders vowed Wednesday to push for an end to the Iran war after sweeping US midterm election victories to gain control of both Chambers of Congress. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer suggested that his party could use the control over government funding to press for that goal, prompting traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium and weighing on crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern for energy markets as disruptions to shipping could constrain global supplies. In fact, Iran said that the US response to its conditions for reopening the strategic waterway was unsatisfactory. Furthermore, another oil tanker was struck off the coast of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, adding to concerns about the security of shipments in the region.
Furthermore, the prevailing selling bias surrounding the US Dollar (USD) could act as a tailwind for the USD-denominated commodity. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that crude oil prices have topped out and positioning for an extension of the recent sharp retracement slide from the 104.00 mark, or the highest level since May, touched last Friday.
WTI daily chart
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil prices retain a constructive tone while above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.11 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upswing at $85.59. The confluence support points to the underlying dip demand after the recent pullback from multi-month highs.
A break below this, however, would expose deeper supports at the 61.8% retracement at $81.27 and the 78.6% level at $75.12, with the prior swing low region at $67.29 acting as a more distant floor. On the topside, initial resistance is lined up at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $89.91, followed by the 23.6% level at $95.25 and then the recent cycle high region at $103.89.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Australia's Trade Balance widened to A$2,826M MoM in September, followed a surplus of A$185M in the previous reading (revised from A$495M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.
Further details reveal that Australia's Exports rose by 2.3% MoM in September from an increase of 3.1% seen a month earlier (revised from 3.7%). Meanwhile, Imports fell by 3.3% MoM in September, compared to a rise of 6.2% seen in August (revised from 5.8%).
Market reaction to Australia’s Trade Balance
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges slightly higher following the Australia’s Trade Balance report. At press time, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7012, gaining 0.06% on the day.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Thursday, per the BoJ Minutes of the September meeting.
Key quotes
Members concurred it was suitable for the bank to keep increasing the policy interest rate and modify the level of monetary easing.
One member said it was preferable for the bank to move the policy interest rate closer to the target relatively soon and maintain flexibility for quick adjustments in either direction.
One member said it was important to show the market BOJ's resolve to prevent upward price deviations with agile response to global economic conditions.
Cabinet Office rep expects central bank to fulfill accountability on meeting decisions and closely examine cumulative effects of past rate policies.
One member noted that if signs of rising price deviation appeared, the bank would need to speed up rate hikes.
Cabinet office representative said BoJ may need to consider its estimates of neutral interest rate.
One member said BoJ did not need hasty action but should set policy to prevent excessive, persistent inflation.
One member said bank should keep acting promptly without being too cautious.
Cabinet office representative says important for BOJ to take proactive, appropriate steps amid excessive economic and market fluctuations.
Many members expressed view it was difficult to pinpoint neutral rate level in advance.
Many members said bank should modify policy while assessing changes in financial conditions including short-term interest rates and reaction to economic activity and prices.
Ministry of Finance expects central bank to carefully assess impact of policy rate shift on economy and prices.
Some members noted services prices rose steadily over recent years.
Members say if trend accelerates further, underlying inflation could rise accordingly.
One member noted that the current rate of CPI increase has largely met the price stability target.
A different member said underlying cpi inflation has already reached a level generally aligned with the 2% target.
Several members highlighted rising chances of CPI inflation increase from early autumn.
Market reaction to the BoJ Minutes
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.03% on the day at 158.39.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Wednesday that inflationary pressures have increased as the October figure exceeded expectations. Schlegel added that the central bank won’t hesitate to modify policy if price stability is endangered.
Key quotes
Inflation in Switzerland climbed, October figure exceeded expectations.
No major second-round effects so far, but can't be excluded later.
Central bank won’t hesitate to modify policy if price stability is endangered.
Central bank will monitor situation closely, especially for second-round inflation effects.
Market reaction
No impact of SNB Schlegel's comments was seen on the Swiss Franc (CHF). At press time, USD/CHF trades 0.53% lower at around 0.8165.
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
- Gold price jumps to around $4,065 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress.
- US September employment will take center stage on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to near $4,065 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal rises over 3.60%, the biggest gain since mid-August, after Democrats swept the US midterm elections. Traders will closely monitor the US September employment data later on Friday for clues on the interest rate outlook.
Democrats seized control of both the US Senate and House of Representatives, an outcome markets interpreted as likely to cause political gridlock that could curb further fiscal expansion.
Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections dragged the US Dollar (USD) lower to more than a one-month low on Wednesday. The weaker USD boosted gold’s appeal by making dollar-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers.
However, signs that inflationary concerns persisted and oil prices remained elevated would give the US Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to pursue easier monetary policy. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Markets are now pricing in about an 82.7% probability of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“More broadly, there is now a hope that a change in course could finally help fight inflation,” said Joshua Kutin, Columbia Threadneedle’s head of multi-asset solutions for North America. “Oil is part of this, but more broadly the expectation is that high prices will be directly addressed by incoming politicians,” Joshua added.
Gold surges back above $4000 as Dollar softness and US fiscal worries lift precious metals
Analysts at Scotiabank highlight that “the price gold is showing an impressive near-3% gain on the day, climbing back above the psychologically important $4000/oz level as the price of silver pushes to a near-5% pop.” They note that “the gains in precious metals may be attributed to a combination of the broader USD’s moves, as well as market participants’ concerns related to the US fiscal outlook,” underscoring how renewed Dollar weakness and mounting fiscal anxieties are feeding directly into bullion’s latest rally.
Technical Analysis: Gold retains a negative outlook below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA. The price’s position beneath these key trend gauges suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 48 signals neutral momentum rather than an oversold condition, hinting that sellers retain the structural advantage despite the recent bounce off sub-$4,000 levels.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band around $4,075, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,205 and the upper Bollinger band near $4,255. On the downside, the next notable support aligns with the lower Bollinger band at about $3,900, where a break would likely open the door to a deeper corrective leg, while holding above this floor would keep XAU/USD in a broad consolidation beneath its key moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY forms potential bullish pin bar below 200-day SMA resistance.
- RSI remains bullish but turns lower, signaling fading buying momentum.
- Break above 159.00 exposes 159.16, while losing 157.39 threatens 156.08.
The USD/JPY edges lower but trims some of its earlier losses, down 0.20% in the aftermath of the US midterm election results. However, the pair seems to form a tilted bullish ‘pin bar ’, yet it remains consolidated within the 50- and 200-day SMAs, each at 157.39 and 158.62. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 158.41.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/JPY remains subdued, with no clear bias. The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, but if buyers reclaim 159.00, a move to the 100-day SMA at 159.16 is on the cards, with buyers eyeing a test of 160.00.
From a momentum standpoint, that move seems remote. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bullish, is aiming downwards. Still, if USD/JPY clears 160.00, buyers could negate the bearish market structure on a breakout of the September 2 high of 160.39.
On the other hand, for a bearish continuation, sellers must drag the USD/JPY below 158.00 and clear the 50-day SMA at 157.39. A breach of the latter will expose 157.00, with sellers setting their sights on the October 23 low of the day (LOD) at 156.08.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.21% | -0.27% | -0.54% | -0.22% | -0.52% | |
| EUR | 0.37% | -0.06% | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.16% | 0.20% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.17% | -0.10% | 0.23% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.34% | -0.03% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.13% | -0.17% | 0.07% | -0.27% | 0.04% | -0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.54% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.34% | 0.27% | 0.32% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | -0.20% | -0.23% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.32% | -0.29% | |
| CHF | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.26% | -0.02% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD rebounds from 0.6954, gaining over 0.59% above 0.7000.
- WTI plunges nearly 9% as US Treasury yields and Dollar retreat.
- Economists see RBA rates peaking at 4.85% after latest hike.
The Democratic blue sweep in the US midterm elections weighed on the US Dollar and boosted the Australian Dollar, which has bounced from a 12-day low of 0.6954 and reclaimed 0.7000, gaining over 0.59% at the time of writing.
AUD/USD rebounds from a 12-day low as falling US yields undermine the Greenback
Market mood is positive, as evidenced by US equities, which closed Wednesday’s session in the green. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against a basket of six currencies, dropped 0.36% to 101.53 amid fears that bills proposed by Trump would be rejected by a US Congress dominated by the Democrats.
On a positive note, the leaders of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate pledged to end the Iran war, which, according to the US Vice President JD Vance, was the main reason for the Republicans’ loss. The comments weighed on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate, the US crude Oil benchmark, collapsing nearly 9% to $88.05 per barrel.
This backdrop pushed US Treasury yields lower, amid expectations that gasoline prices may resume downward, with the US 10-year T-note yield falling 7.6 basis points to 4.890%.
US data revealed that the ISM Services PMI cooled to 54.5 in October, below forecasts but in expansionary territory. Although new orders softened, prices paid also edged lower – good news for inflation – while the employment sub-component rose, suggesting the jobs market remains solid.
Other data showed that the trade deficit was little changed in August, while the ADP National Employment Change report in October crushed forecasts, with private hiring creating 86K jobs, exceeding forecasts of 69K.
Now traders' focus is on Thursday’s data, as US jobless claims are expected to increase from 194K to 196K, and alongside this, Fed officials will hit the wires.
In Australia, the economic docket was absent; still, traders were digesting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike and a mildly dovish press conference by Governor Bullock.
A poll by the Australian Financial Review of 30 economists found that rates have peaked at 4.85% and that they expect the RBA to pause its tightening cycle. Even though most analysts expect this, they noted that external shocks such as the Middle East conflict and high energy prices could prompt a reaction from the central bank.
Of note, the RBA's recent forecasts, revealed on Tuesday, see core inflation returning to its 2.5% target in mid-2028.
Ahead, the Aussie’s economic docket will feature the Trade Balance for September, which is expected to register a surplus of 1,200 million, up from 495 million in August.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7006, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the latest triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7056. Price remains below a series of upward-sloping trend-line break levels at 0.7121 and 0.7472, suggesting the pair is still trading on the back foot despite the Relative Strength Index (14) edging toward a more neutral 49 area, hinting at fading downside momentum rather than a clear bullish shift.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the triple simple moving average level near 0.7056, followed by the upward support trend-line break around 0.7121, while a horizontal barrier at 0.7198 marks a stronger cap ahead of the higher structural lines at 0.7472, 0.9039 and 1.0046. On the downside, the pair is still supported by an upward trend-line break near 0.6923, with the earlier downward resistance trend-line break anchored around 0.6348 emerging as a deeper structural floor if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.35% | -0.43% | -0.22% | -0.23% | -0.59% | -0.17% | -0.51% | |
| EUR | 0.35% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.13% | -0.22% | 0.20% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.21% | 0.21% | -0.15% | 0.28% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | -0.14% | -0.21% | -0.02% | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.27% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | -0.13% | -0.21% | 0.02% | -0.34% | 0.04% | -0.27% | |
| AUD | 0.59% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.34% | 0.39% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.39% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.51% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.27% | 0.27% | -0.08% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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