Forex News
HSBC sees global and US equities supported by strong earnings momentum linked to AI adoption, fiscal spending and a positive cyclical backdrop. The bank argues the recent tech sell-off has improved valuations and favours a broad sector allocation across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Utilities, with particular emphasis on US and Asian markets for diversification and innovation exposure.
AI trend broadens sector opportunities
"Despite the recent tech sell-off, US earnings growth remained strong in Q4 2025, reflecting continued AI adoption, software demand and margin expansion. We expect this momentum to persist, led by the technology and cyclical sectors. Tech valuations are also much cheaper now."
"The cyclical outlook also appears positive, thanks to the AI trend, elevated investment spending and fiscal support. This broadens the opportunity set in the industrials sector, which continues to benefit from fiscal spending and capital investment, with positive spillover effects on materials linked to infrastructure construction."
"Utilities have also benefitted from increasing demand for electricity – not just in the US but also in Asia and parts of Europe. Our selective yet broad-based approach helps reduce concentration risk in the US and the technology sector."
"We remain overweight on global and US equities across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Utilities. In response to rising risks to oil supply from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we’ve upgraded global energy stocks to neutral."
"Geographically, we continue to favour the US, while increasingly adding to Asia, which provides stock level diversification at compelling valuations, along and a vibrant innovation ecosystem. Some emerging markets have also outperformed as investors look to reduce their US exposure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US signals it may release Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude through swaps to ease short-term supply disruptions.
- Washington says military operations could last weeks, while naval escorts for vessels may be possible later this month.
- Oil prices remain supported amid escalating tensions around Iran and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In interviews with CNBC and CNN reported by Reuters, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that any release of Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would likely take the form of swaps, designed to address short-term supply disruptions without direct costs to taxpayers. He added that such a release could help the market “get through a few weeks of dislocation”.
The remarks come amid rising tensions involving Iran and renewed concerns about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint for global Oil flows. Wright stressed that reopening the strait is a priority and warned that Iran’s ability to threaten regional shipping must ultimately be neutralized.
According to the Energy Secretary, any military operation related to the crisis would likely take weeks rather than months. He also indicated that US naval escorts for commercial vessels are not currently in place, although such measures could become possible before the end of the month.
Wright added Oil markets in the Western Hemisphere are “not really tight” compared with Asia.
Market reaction
The comments didn’t get significant market attention. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surges on Thursday, gaining 5.10% and trading around $91.75 per barrel at the time of writing.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Shanghai silver arbitrage signals strong Chinese demand, contrasting with cautious Western investors after the Iran conflict. London OTC markets are still absorbing flows and lease rates point to better availability. This backdrop supports TD Securities’ view that global Silver inventory coverage is improving despite earlier tightness.
Shanghai arb signals robust buying
"Shanghai silver arb points to strong Chinese demand. The shell-shock from the recent conflict is keeping Western investors cautious, but the trend in Shanghai silver arb points to a resurgence in Chinese demand for silver following the unprecedented retail demand for silver in the early months of 2026."
"This demand impulse has kicked off in the days leading up to the war in Iran."
"For the time being, London OTC markets continue to absorb this demand well, with silver lease rates continuing to point to improving availability."
"This contrasts sharply with the early-year market context, and lends strength to our view of rising inventory coverage in global silver markets."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that despite shifting rate expectations elsewhere in G10, surveys show BoJ watchers still expect a rate hike by the end of June. The bank underlines that higher energy prices worsen Japan’s terms of trade and create uncertainty over April policy, with upcoming guidance from Governor Ueda seen as crucial for near-term Japanese Yen performance.
Energy shock complicates BoJ rate outlook
"The Reuters survey indicated that BoJ watchers continue to expect the BoJ to hike rates next by the end of June."
"The market will be watching the BoJ’s March 19 meeting for any clues as to the risks regarding an April move. The most recent Bloomberg survey suggests that more than one third of participants already expect a hike next month."
"For an energy importer such as Japan, however, higher prices of oil and gas will lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade."
"The BBG survey indicates a lack of consensus as to whether higher energy prices will increase the chances of a BoJ rate rise in April on the back of the inflation implications or reduce the risks due to the headwinds to growth."
"Next week’s guidance from BoJ Governor Ueda could thus be instrumental for the near-term performance of the JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra notes that ECB officials have turned more hawkish as energy‑driven inflation risks re‑emerge, but the bank’s base case is still for only one rate hike toward late 2026. Markets have swung from modest cuts to pricing cumulative 2026 hikes, while ECB research suggests long lags from policy to inflation, especially for services.
Market shifts from cuts to modest 2026 hikes
"Research from the ECB suggests that a 50bp hike can reduce inflation by 0.2-0.3% within 12-18 months while service inflation requires more than 24 months for transmission."
"This big lag also suggests why the ECB members have started to sound hawkish without waiting for the story to unfold."
"Markets have shifted sharply from pricing 8-9bp of ECB cuts for this year (as of 27 February) to pricing a cumulative 40bp of hikes in 2026."
"Our base case remains for the ECB to deliver one rate hike towards the end of 2026."
"Should the response shift towards aggressive fiscal support, central banks (particularly those already operating near neutral such as the ECB) may be less constrained by growth risks when considering further hikes."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY trades around 158.90 on Thursday, remaining broadly unchanged on the day.
- Escalating tensions in the Middle East fuel risk aversion and could support the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven currency.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting after inflation data met expectations.
USD/JPY trades around 158.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day. The pair remains close to its yearly highs, supported by a relatively firm US Dollar (USD) despite a tense geopolitical backdrop and growing expectations that Japan may gradually normalize its monetary policy.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are drawing strong market attention. Iran has launched what it described as its most intense operation since the beginning of the war, notably attempting to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global Oil flows. At the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. In this environment, traders are closely monitoring the evolution of the conflict, as any escalation involving Iran, its regional neighbors, the United States (US) or Israel could strengthen demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weigh on USD/JPY in the near term.
On the macroeconomic front, data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in February, compared with 0.2% previously, in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% MoM after a 0.3% rise previously, also matching forecasts. Market participants largely looked through the report and instead focused on rising Oil prices, which could push headline inflation higher in the coming months.
Markets now widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on March 18. However, the outlook for energy-driven inflation and persistent geopolitical risks continues to provide support for the US Dollar.
Several financial institutions are urging caution at current levels. Analysts at DBS note that the pair is testing an important resistance zone around 159-160, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could deliver a hawkish hold at its March 19 meeting as it continues its path toward policy normalization. According to DBS, a diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East, potentially linked to upcoming discussions between the US and China, could lower energy prices and weaken the current fundamental support for USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, analysts at MUFG argue that rising energy prices represent a negative terms-of-trade shock for Japan, which may lead authorities to tolerate a weaker JPY in the near term. This situation could raise the threshold for foreign exchange intervention, even as expectations grow that the Bank of Japan could deliver another rate hike as soon as April.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.31% | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | 0.02% | -0.31% | -0.22% | 0.07% | 0.07% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.31% | -0.02% | -0.34% | -0.23% | 0.06% | 0.06% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.39% | 0.36% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.22% | 0.23% | -0.08% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.39% | -0.30% | -0.00% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.36% | -0.29% | 0.00% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.27% | 0.03% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.19% | 0.10% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 213K vs. the previous week.
- Continuing Jobless Claims went down to 1.850M.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance went down to 213K for the week ending March 7. The latest print came in short of initial estimates (215K) and was a tad lower than the previous week’s 214K (revised from 213K).
Additionally, the 4-week moving average decreased by 4K, bringing it to 212K from the revised average of the previous week (216K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims fell by 21K to 1.850M for the week ending February 28.
Market reaction
The Greenback adds to the weekly recovery on Thursday, prompting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to hit three-day highs around 99.50. The Greenback’s improvement remains well underpinned by unabated tensions in the geopolitical landscape.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- Gold trades broadly flat amid a firmer US Dollar.
- US-Iran war supports safe-haven demand, but Oil-driven inflation fears cap gains in the yellow metal.
- Technically, XAU/USD continues to consolidate within the $5,000-$5,250 range.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers earlier losses and trades broadly flat on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) caps upside attempts, even as Treasury yields ease somewhat after rising earlier this week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $5,170, rebounding from intraday lows near $5,125.
The precious metal remains trapped within a familiar range and lacks strong directional momentum as traders weigh opposing macroeconomic forces. The ongoing US-Iran war continues to underpin safe-haven demand and help limit deeper losses.
At the same time, concerns that the conflict could trigger an Oil-driven inflation shock are reinforcing a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) narrative that keeps the USD and Treasury yields broadly elevated, limiting Gold’s upside.
Fed rate-cut bets fade as US-Iran war intensifies
The US-Iran war entered its thirteenth day on Thursday, with attacks intensifying across the Middle East and no clear signs of de-escalation. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the war with Iran could end “soon,” telling Axios in a brief phone interview that there is “practically nothing left to target.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled that Tehran would only consider ending the conflict under certain conditions, including recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights,” payment of war reparations, and guarantees against future aggression.
The conflict is disrupting global Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran targeting Oil tankers and commercial vessels near the key shipping route, raising concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
Oil prices have surged sharply since the conflict began and remain volatile despite efforts to calm the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, including 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
According to a BHH report, nearly 15 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude Oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or about 10 mb/d assuming alternative routes operate at full capacity. Based on these estimates, the IEA’s Oil stock release could cover roughly 27 to 40 days of supply disruption.
Against this backdrop, markets have continued to trim Fed interest rate-cut bets, with traders now pricing in around 25-30 basis points (bps) of easing by December, down from more than 50 bps before the war began, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Recent US inflation data also supports a cautious Fed stance, with focus now on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due on Friday.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades sideways between $5,000 and $5,250
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows XAU/USD consolidating between $5,000 and $5,250, reflecting a pause in the broader uptrend. The near-term bias remains mildly bullish as the price continues to hold above the rising 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which in turn remain well above the 100-day SMA, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 55, holding above its midline and suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has slipped toward 12, pointing to waning trend strength.
On the upside, $5,200 remains the immediate resistance level, followed by Tuesday’s peak near $5,238. A decisive break above this zone could revive bullish momentum and open the door for a move toward $5,419, the March 2 high.
On the downside, initial support emerges near the 21-day SMA around $5,115, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,932. A sustained break below this area could trigger fresh selling pressure, exposing the 100-day SMA near $4,556 as the next key support level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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