Forex News
- WTI remains stronger after a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel near Oman threatened global shipping routes.
- UN’s International Maritime Organization suspended shipping guidance through the critical Strait of Hormuz following a suspected projectile attack.
- Rubio assured anxious Gulf allies that a finalized Iran agreement would fully safeguard their regional security interests.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $71.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices surge following a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel near Oman, which abruptly halted United Nations (UN) evacuation efforts in the vital Strait of Hormuz and renewed anxieties over the global energy supply.
The UN’s International Maritime Organization suspended its operations to safely guide ships and seafarers through the critical corridor, sparking widespread concern that a preliminary agreement to end the war with Iran may be on the verge of collapse.
The geopolitical friction intensified after Thursday's market close when two US officials reported that Iranian forces had fired on the cargo ship as it attempted to navigate the strait. In response, Iranian authorities issued a stark warning, stating that the security of any vessels traveling outside designated Hormuz shipping routes is no longer guaranteed.
This escalation coincided with the conclusion of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s diplomatic tour of the Middle East. Aiming to ease deep-seated skepticism over the preliminary accord, Rubio assured nervous Gulf allies that any finalized agreement with Iran would fully protect their regional security interests.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1365 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- The US PCE price index rose 4.1% year-on-year in May.
- Markets pare back future ECB hike bets following dovish comments from policymakers.
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1365 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The major remains near a 13-month low as market expectations for US interest rate hikes have risen. Traders brace for the release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report, which will be released later on Friday.
US inflation increased further in May, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbing 4.1% YoY, compared to 3.3% in April. This figure broke above 4.0% for the first time in three years as the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices, and kept an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year on the table.
Meanwhile, the core PCE, the Fed’s primary price gauge, rose 3.4% YoY in May, versus 3.3% prior. The annual core PCE reading was the highest since October 2023.
Financial markets have priced in nearly a 63.4% chance that the Fed will raise rates at the September 15-16 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers weigh on the shared currency. While the ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% at its June policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the central bank does not need to respond aggressively to Middle East conflict spillovers. Lagarde further stated that the inflation shock facing the Eurozone is too large to ignore but not yet large enough to push up longer-term inflation.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused the planned evacuation of more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after a Singapore-flagged ship passing through the waterway was attacked, BBC reported on Friday.
IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez said that several boats had already been evacuated, but the agency wanted to ensure that "necessary safety guarantees" would continue to be in place.
A White House official stated that it was too soon to say who struck the ship. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said that the US was looking into which party was responsible for the strike, including whether it was an action ordered by high levels of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or a rogue decision by lower-level personnel.
Market reaction
Crude oil prices attract some buyers following this headline. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 2.28% higher at around $71.35.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 1.7% YoY as compared to 1.4% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.
Additionally, Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food climbed 1.6% YoY in June against 1.6% expected and 1.3% in the prior month. The Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy jumped 1.9% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 1.6%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges slightly higher in an immediate reaction to the Tokyo CPI inflation report. As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.01% on the day at 161.80.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.25% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.20% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.07% | 0.27% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.34% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.07% | 0.09% | -0.14% | 0.18% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.34% | -0.18% | -0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
What do Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation data mean for the Japanese Yen
Japan's Tokyo CPI measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. This report is one of the most important inflation indicators as it offers an early glimpse into national inflation trends and helps shape expectations for Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy.
Hotter-than-expected CPI inflation suggests stronger inflationary pressures in Japan, which generally supports the Japanese Yen by increasing the likelihood of further BoJ policy normalization. On the other hand, softer-than-expected CPI inflation may signal easing inflationary pressures, which could lead markets to scale back expectations for future BoJ rate hikes and weigh on JPY.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY maintains constructive bias in the near term
In the daily chart, USD/JPY extends its advance well above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band, which both underpin a firm bullish near-term bias. Price now presses toward the Bollinger upper band, highlighting a stretched topside move, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 72 suggests overbought conditions that could slow the pace of gains even if the broader uptrend remains intact.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger upper band at 162.00, and a sustained break above this level would open the way for further upside extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 160.55, ahead of secondary demand at the lower Bollinger band at 159.10 and the 100-day MA at 158.45, where a deeper pullback would be expected to encounter buying interest while the pair holds above these underlying trend supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 28, 2026 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 1.4%
Consensus: -
Previous: 1.5%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Gold price edges lower to near $4,020 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- The annual core PCE reading rose at its highest level since 2023.
- A ship was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining the rapid reopening of the energy chokepoint.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,020 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline as traders have ramped up bets of a US rate hike. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report is due later on Friday. Also, Federal Reserve (Fed) New York President John Williams and Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari are set to speak.
Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s primary price gauge, rose 3.4% YoY in May, compared to 3.3% in April. The annual core PCE reading was the highest since October 2023.
Meanwhile, the headline PCE inflation climbed to 4.1% YoY in May from 3.8% in April. Both core and headline figures came in line with expectations.
Markets continued to expect the US central bank to approve a rate hike in September, though they lowered odds slightly. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that a ship was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after several freighters turned around while attempting to cross the vital waterway. Any signs of renewed tensions in the Middle East could raise concerns over elevated inflation, weighing on the yellow metal.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Crude Oil bounced on Thursday after a tanker attack in the Gulf of Oman, then faded back toward pre-war levels.
- The attack pushed the UN's maritime agency to pause an evacuation of thousands of sailors stranded near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Record tanker traffic through the Strait and a building supply glut remain the dominant pressure on price.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spent Thursday doing its now-familiar trick of grabbing a geopolitical bid and then quietly handing most of it back. A fresh tanker attack in the Gulf of Oman, paired with a decision by the United Nations to halt the evacuation of stranded sailors, lit a bounce of roughly 2.3% off a low near $69.00 to a high around $72.50, before the move faded into the close near $71.50. The honest label for the session is a reflexive fear bid that the tape promptly sold into. Crude Oil is still trading within a whisker of where it sat before the war began, which tells you how little the market now fears the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait flares, the premium twitches
The trigger was an attack on a container ship in the Gulf of Oman, the latest reminder that the 60-day truce reopening the waterway is held together with tape and goodwill. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its plan to evacuate roughly 11K mariners still stuck near the Strait, saying it needed to reconfirm safety guarantees before sending anyone through. Iran's strait authority then repeated its threat that vessels straying from Tehran-approved lanes would face consequences, deliberately vague and deliberately ominous.
Layer in the unresolved fight over transit tolls, with Tehran wanting to charge for passage and Washington threatening a counter-toll, and you have a ceasefire that could fray on any headline. That is exactly the kind of backdrop that should keep a war premium firmly bid. It did, for about six hours.
The glut has the wheel
The reason that bid keeps leaking out is sitting in the shipping data. Tankers are now moving through the Strait at the fastest wartime pace yet, with a single-day record of about 16 million barrels set earlier in the week that surpassed even pre-war volumes, while Saudi cargoes steam toward Ras Tanura to restart Gulf exports for the first time since March. A temporary US waiver clearing the purchase of already-loaded Iranian barrels only adds to the wave of supply now hitting the water.
The structural signal is louder still. Brent's prompt spread flipped into bearish contango this week, the first such move since the conflict began; that is the market's way of saying near-term supply is no longer scarce. Traders are openly repositioning for a 2026 glut, as a major exporter threatens to break ranks over production quotas. The lone bullish footnote is Cushing, where inventories near 19 million barrels sit below comfortable operating levels, but a thin storage hub is small comfort against a Gulf that is reopening for business.
The inflation irony nobody is pricing
There is a neat irony buried in Thursday's other headline. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve (Fed) watches most closely, printed at 4.1% YoY for May, the hottest reading since 2023, with the core measure at 3.4%. Both landed roughly in line with forecasts, and the energy spike from the Hormuz war was a primary driver of that surge.
The catch is that the same de-escalation now gutting Crude Oil is quietly defusing the energy-driven inflation impulse that has kept the Fed leaning hawkish. May's data is backward-looking, and the barrel that fed it already sits more than $40 below its wartime peak near $113. A roughly in-line monthly print also took a little starch out of the Dollar on the day, handing Crude's bounce a small mechanical assist it did not earn on its own.
Where to fade it
Resistance: The first ceiling is Thursday's high near $72.50, the level the bounce died at. Above it, sellers should reload toward $75.00, and only a reclaim of the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now near $78.00, would force a rethink of the broader downtrend.
Support: The line to watch is the $69.00 area, with Thursday's spike low just beneath it. A clean break there opens the door to the high-$60s and a full round-trip to pre-war levels, where the chart last found a floor.
Bias: Lower. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is buried near the bottom of its range on the daily chart, so another oversold bounce is possible, but every rally into resistance is a fade until the Strait of Hormuz genuinely re-closes rather than merely flickers. The glut is the trend; the war premium is the noise.
WTI Spot daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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