Forex News
- GBP/JPY holds 218.00 floor despite broken support trendline.
- Bullish harami pattern hints buyers may retest 219.00 resistance.
- Break below 217.53 exposes 216.60 support and deeper pullback.
The GBP/JPY rotates for the third straight day, as a ‘bullish harami’ chart pattern opens the door for further upside, but intervention fears by Japanese authorities cap the cross-pair advance. The GBP/JPY trades at 218.17, unchanged.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY found its floor at around 218.00, as sellers failed to drive the cross-pair below it, despite breaking a key support trendline three days ago. One reason for sellers’ weakness is speculation that the Bank of England could raise rates, which could favour some upside.
On the other hand, the GBP/JPY has failed to gain traction above 219.00 amid speculation of Japanese Yen intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
For a bullish continuation, the GBP/JPY must clear 219.00 and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 219.61. Once hurdled, the next area of interest would become the 220.00 milestone.
On the flip side, bears must clear the July 21 low of the day (LOD) at 217.53 to challenge 216.60, the April 30 daily high-turned-support.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.45% | 0.43% | -0.02% | 0.43% | 0.77% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | 0.15% | 0.15% | -0.34% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.45% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.50% | -0.03% | 0.34% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.43% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.45% | -0.01% | 0.34% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.34% | 0.50% | 0.45% | 0.44% | 0.80% | 0.33% | |
| AUD | -0.43% | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% | -0.44% | 0.35% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.77% | -0.48% | -0.34% | -0.34% | -0.80% | -0.35% | -0.49% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.00% | 0.15% | 0.13% | -0.33% | 0.10% | 0.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to remain directionless in the near term, with intraday trading confined to a tight 1.2900–1.2925 band. Over the coming weeks, the pair is seen oscillating in a broader 1.2875–1.2955 range as earlier downside momentum has faded. A deeper correction would require a break of the 1.2865 55‑day EMA support.
Dollar-Singapore Dollar trapped in tight band
"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that “there has been a tentative increase in upward momentum,” we pointed out that “it is insufficient to indicate a continued rise.” We held the view that USD “is more likely to trade within a higher range of 1.2900/1.2930.” However, USD traded sideways between 1.2898 and 1.2923, closing little changed at 1.2911 (-0.09%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and USD could continue to trade sideways today, most likely between 1.2900 and 1.2925."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 1.2885), we indicated that “downward momentum is starting to build, and should USD close below 1.2860, it could trigger a deeper decline.” Two days ago (21 Jul, spot at 1.2910), we highlighted the following: “USD traded in a quiet manner over the past few days, and downward momentum is starting to ease. However, as long as 1.2930 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, the risk of USD breaking and closing below 1.2860 remains, though the odds are not high.” USD traded in a quiet manner over the past couple of days, and downward momentum has largely faded. From here, USD is likely to trade in a range between 1.2875 and 1.2955."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know for Friday, July 24:
The US Dollar strengthened across the board on Thursday as resilient United States labor data and escalating hostilities in the Middle East support demand for the Greenback. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K in the week ending July 18, sharply below the 212K forecast and the revised 209K previous reading. This was the lowest level since 1969, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.
Market sentiment also deteriorated after US President Donald Trump said he was close to deciding whether to launch a larger military operation against Iran. Oil prices surged following attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and concerns that disruptions could affect both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises around 0.3% above 101.40, supported by stronger Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.41% | 0.01% | 0.44% | 0.76% | 0.31% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | 0.15% | 0.11% | -0.31% | 0.13% | 0.47% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.44% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.47% | -0.02% | 0.32% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.40% | 0.02% | 0.34% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.47% | 0.40% | 0.42% | 0.75% | 0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.44% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.42% | 0.34% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.76% | -0.47% | -0.32% | -0.34% | -0.75% | -0.34% | -0.48% | |
| CHF | -0.31% | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.12% | -0.29% | 0.11% | 0.48% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1380, losing around 0.3%. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, as expected, while maintaining a data-dependent approach and leaving the possibility of further tightening open if energy-driven inflation pressures persist. However, the decision failed to provide lasting support to the Euro as broad USD demand dominated market action.
GBP/USD falls below1.3320, declining around 0.4% as the Pound struggles against the stronger Greenback. Investors are also cautious ahead of Friday’s UK Retail Sales report. Monthly sales are expected to decline 0.3% in June following May’s 1.2% increase, while sales excluding fuel are forecast to contract 0.4%.
USD/JPY climbs toward 163.85, advancing around 0.4% and reaching its highest level in almost four decades. The Yen remains under pressure as rising US yields and stronger Fed rate hike expectations widen the monetary policy contrast between the United States and Japan. The sharp move is also keeping markets alert to the possibility of intervention from Japanese authorities.
AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6970, falling around 0.4% despite Australia’s stronger-than-expected employment report. Employment increased by 76.3K in June, well above the 15K forecast, while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.4%. Nevertheless, safe-haven USD demand and cautious risk sentiment outweighed support from the domestic figures. Australia’s preliminary July PMIs are due after the Composite PMIs, which previously stood at 50.4.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil surges more than 6% toward $92.00 per barrel as geopolitical tensions raise concerns about global energy supplies. The Ansar Allah attacks on Saudi tankers opened another potential disruption point in the Red Sea, while reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to tighten supply expectations.
Gold drops approximately 2% toward $4,050, retreating from its recent highs despite geopolitical uncertainty. The stronger US Dollar, rising Treasury yields and expectations that higher Oil prices could force central banks to maintain elevated interest rates are weighing on the non-yielding metal.
Friday’s economic calendar
On Friday, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to improve to −28.5 from −29.2. France, Germany and the Eurozone will release their preliminary July HCOB PMIs, with Eurozone Manufacturing expected at 51.3 and Services at 49.8.
The UK will publish Retail Sales and preliminary S&P Global PMIs. The United States will also release its preliminary July PMIs, with Manufacturing expected to rise to 54.5 from 53.9 and Services forecast to ease to 51.0 from 51.2. June New Home Sales will also be published on Friday.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports Bank Indonesia kept the BI Rate at 5.75%, choosing targeted capital-flow incentives over further tightening to support the Indonesian Rupiah. BI cut hedging costs and improved macroprudential liquidity tools, echoing RBI’s playbook. Lay notes USD/IDR’s pullback gives some breathing room, but warns the Rupiah is still vulnerable and another 25 bp hike later this year cannot be ruled out.
Capital-flow tools to back rupiah
"Bank Indonesia (BI) left the BI Rate unchanged at 5.75%. In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were evenly split, with a slight majority expecting a 25bp hike. This was on the view that BI will continue to hike to support the currency and shore up investor confidence."
"The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has come under pressure this year amid higher oil prices and growing concerns over fiscal discipline and policy credibility. Governor Perry Warjiyo acknowledged that another rate hike had been considered. However, the board expressed concerns over the negative consequences on domestic borrowing costs and consumption, particularly given that it had already hiked by 100bp in two months."
"Instead, BI opted to leave rates unchanged and rely on targeted financial incentives to attract foreign capital and support the rupiah. The strategy echoes the Reserve Bank of India's approach of supporting the currency through capital-flow measures rather than relying solely on higher policy rates."
"The recent pullback in USD/IDR from above 18,200 to around 17,900 has given BI some breathing room, but the rupiah is unlikely to be out of the woods. A sustained recovery will still depend on stronger policy credibility and continued foreign capital inflows."
"Higher oil prices, renewed safe-haven demand for USD, and lingering concerns over fiscal management remain key risks. While BI has paused for now, another 25bp rate hike later this year cannot be ruled out if depreciation pressures re-emerge."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6970 as stronger US labor data and cautious market sentiment boost the US Dollar.
- US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K, well below the 212K forecast, while Trump’s comments about a possible major attack increased geopolitical uncertainty.
- Australia added 76.3K jobs in June, but the Aussie failed to benefit as traders awaited the preliminary July S&P Global PMIs.
AUD/USD trades lower near the 0.6970 area on Thursday, giving back earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the back of upbeat United States (US) labor market data and continued hostilities between the US and Iran.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K in the week ending July 18, well below the 212K market forecast and the previous revised 209K. The stronger-than-expected reading reinforced the view that the US labor market remains resilient, supporting US Treasury yields and the Greenback.
Risk sentiment also turned more cautious after US President Donald Trump said he was “considering a massive attack greater than anything before” and added that Israel would join “within two minutes” if asked. The remarks lifted geopolitical uncertainty and helped underpin safe-haven demand for the USD, limiting support for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
On the domestic front, Australia’s June employment report was broadly strong. Employment Change rose by 76.3K, far above the 15K expected and the previous 44K, while Full-Time Employment increased by 29.3K and Part-Time Employment climbed by 47K. The Participation Rate edged up to 67.0% from 66.7%, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4%, matching expectations.
Traders now look ahead to Australia’s preliminary July S&P Global PMIs, with the Composite PMI seen at 50.4, Manufacturing at 51.5 and Services at 50.5. Stronger PMI readings could help the AUD stabilize, while softer figures may leave AUD/USD vulnerable if the USD keeps advancing.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6974, holding below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7000 while clinging just above nearby horizontal and trend supports, which maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias. The 100-period SMA at 0.6959 sits beneath price and offers underlying trend support, but the latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 40 hints at fading momentum and leaves the pair vulnerable while it remains capped by layered resistance overhead.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6979, followed by a more congested barrier at 0.6994 and the 20-period SMA at 0.7000, before a higher horizontal cap emerges at 0.7006. On the downside, immediate support is essentially at the current trading area near 0.6974, with a minor horizontal floor at 0.6964 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6959 expected to act as a deeper defensive zone if selling pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Oil near $95 is a shock for Asian energy importers but not a trigger for a broad balance-of-payments crisis. He highlights stronger current-account buffers in ASEAN and India, prior fiscal consolidation and lighter FX positioning as key supports, while urging monitoring of central bank intervention and reserve data to gauge any deterioration.
Asia FX resilience to Oil spike
"Oil at $95 is an FX shock, but not a broad Asia balance-of-payments crisis. ASEAN and India have stronger current-account buffers and lighter positioning, while the cleaner opportunity is in high-carry commodity FX such as BRL, CLP and ZAR. NOK may get oil-linked demand, but elevated holdings and limited Norges Bank buying cap the upside."
"A sharp rise in crude prices isn’t trivial for Asia’s energy importers. Taiwan and South Korea were already facing capital outflows on the financial account, and a lack of dollar liquidity will exacerbate currency weakness. However, we would not overplay the risk of destabilizing pressure or a financial-stability event."
"The region’s balance-of-payments position is also in relatively good shape. Official data indicate that in the run-up to the conflict, ASEAN and India were running the highest current-account surpluses in a decade. The reserve drain around the world in March was severe, and while this had a knock-on impact on government bond holdings globally, ultimately the process was manageable."
"Vigilance is warranted. As Bank Indonesia noted in Wednesday’s decision, the shock calls for “closer fiscal-monetary policy synergy” to bolster external resilience. Asia has made significant progress on this through Q2, and we expect that resilience to hold in the near term."
"Monitor Asian central bank intervention and oil-driven import pressure but treat Asia stress as manageable unless reserves or current-account data deteriorate."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver preserves lower-high structure as bearish momentum accelerates.
- RSI turns lower below 50, signaling sellers retain control.
- Break below $54.77 exposes $50.00 and $48.64 supports.
Silver price dives over 3.80% on Thursday as the precious metals segment tumbles amid overall US Dollar strength and heightened risk aversion amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The XAG/USD trades at $57.62 after hitting a weekly high of $60.94.
XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlook
The white metal remains downwardly biased despite recovering some ground after bouncing off yearly lows of $54.77. The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, an indication that the downtrend might extend in the near term.
Momentum-wise, Silver remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed its course toward the 50-neutral level, aiming lower in bearish territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the price below the July 17 low at $54.77. Once hurdled, the next stop is the $50 milestone. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the November 21, 2025 swing low of $48.64.
On the other hand, if buyers move in and drag Silver above the July 22 day’s high at $60.94, it opens the path toward challenging the July 6 high at $63.38. Above the next key resistance is the psychological $64.00, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $65.79.
XAG/USD daily price chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day SMAs, keeping the near-term outlook mildly positive.
- The 50-day SMA at 0.7028 caps the upside, while momentum indicators show fading buying pressure.
- A break below the 200-day SMA would expose the 0.6800 support level.
AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support from stronger-than-expected Australian employment data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6966, down 0.45% on the day.
The US Dollar gains as the Middle East war lifts safe-haven demand, while the resulting surge in Oil prices adds to inflation worries and strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.6948 and 0.6896, respectively, keeping the near-term outlook mildly constructive. However, the pair remains capped by the 50-day SMA at 0.7028.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally positive, but the fading green histogram suggests that bullish momentum is weakening.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at 0.7028, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7100 and then 0.7250. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at 0.6948, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6896. A sustained break below these levels would expose the 0.6800 mark.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is tracking the broader US Dollar (USD) trend, with USD/CAD easing overnight then rebounding to trade nearly flat. Trade comments from United States (US) officials suggest limited long‑term tariff damage, while their fair value estimate for USD/CAD remains close to spot around 1.40.
CAD tracks broader Dollar trend
"The CAD is tracking the broader trend in the USD, with spot easing somewhat overnight before rebounding to start our session all but flat."
"US Trade Representative Greer yesterday offered some hope that the latest tariff blast from Washington would not undermine US/Canada trade relations in the long run and that talks could make progress towards a broader agreement before year-end."
"Our fair value estimate for the CAD is all but unchanged at 1.4013."
"Neutral—There is little change in the CAD’s technical position. Spot is pivoting around the 40-day MA (1.4074) but holding below USD resistance at 1.4125 and above initial support at 1.4060."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rises for a fourth straight day, reaching its highest level since June 2025.
- The Greenback gains as surging Oil prices reinforce Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
- SNB intervention concerns limit demand for the Swiss Franc despite the Middle East war.
USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since June 2025 on Thursday, supported by a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and strengthens Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8170, extending gains for the fourth straight day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
The war in the Middle East shows no sign of easing after the US and Iran resumed attacks earlier this month. Oil supply disruptions have now spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Ansar Allah group attacked two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea.
US President Donald Trump warned in a Truth Social post that “if they do this again, the US will hold Iran responsible,” describing Ansar Allah as a proxy of Tehran. He added that “major military punishment” would be inflicted on both Iran and the Yemeni rebel group.
Surging energy prices raise concerns that inflation could accelerate again, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September, while the probability of an increase at next week’s meeting stands near 35%.
On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K last week, well below market expectations of 212K. The previous week’s reading was revised slightly higher to 209K from 208K. Traders now await the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July, due on Friday.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) typically attracts demand during periods of geopolitical stress. However, the currency is struggling to benefit from the Middle East war as widening US-Swiss interest-rate expectations and strong demand for the Greenback outweigh its traditional defensive appeal. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to signal its readiness to intervene against excessive Franc strength, adding pressure on the currency.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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