Forex News

• EUR/GBP eases from Thursday's highs near 0.8580, but remains marginally higher on weekly charts.
• Rabobank experts see potential for further appreciation towards 0.8700 in the coming months.
• The pair has remained trading sideways since hitting resistance at 0.8585 in late July.

The Euro (EUR) nurses moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP), with price action contained within the previous day's range and market volatility muted, as investors brace for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. The EUR/GBP pair has pulled back to levels near 0.8570 from Thursday’s highs right below 0.8580, with the weekly chart showing marginal gains.

Looking ahead, analysts at Rabobank expect “further range trading in EUR/GBP over the coming weeks, with a mild upside bias later in the year as fiscal realism weighs and BoE rate hike risk is further priced out.” In line with this view, the bank says it “maintain[s] a 3-month EUR/GBP forecast of 0.87.”

Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at 0.8585

EUR/GBP has been trading in a choppy and sideways manner since peaking at 0.8585 in late July. The pair is now trading at 0.8572, after another rejection at the 0.8580 area earlier in the week, with the near-term bias highlighting fading bullish traction.

Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts are pulling towards the neutral area. The Relative Strength Index lies around 57 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits just above zero, but the MACD line is attempting to cross below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.

Bears remain contained above the 08570 area so far, but the key support area is at the August 25 low, near 0.8545, followed by the late July and mid-August low, in the 0.8530 area. Bulls, on the other hand, would have to break the mentioned 0.8585 area (July 30, August 20 highs) to shift the focus towards a previous support area, right above 0.8600 (June 24, 30 highs).

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes Silver as constructive with room for participation to build, as ETF holdings and managed-money positioning rise from light levels. Technical bias is mildly bullish, but momentum is fading near the 70.60–72 resistance band. A decisive break higher, likely requiring softer yields and a weaker Dollar, could open a move towards 80.30.

Mildly bullish but needs breakout

"Silver momentum has also eased alongside gold after the sharp rebound seen earlier in the month. Our weekly dashboard also noted that ETF holdings have picked up, while managed-money net positioning increased. Importantly, futures positioning remains considerably lighter than in gold, leaving more room for fresh participation if the precious-metals rally resumes."

"The increase in speculative positioning appears to have been driven partly by short covering rather than aggressive new longs, suggesting conviction is not yet particularly stretched. That leaves scope for positioning to build further if the macro impulse turns favourable again."

"Silver price action shows consolidation over the past week near important resistance. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact though there are signs of it waning while RSI is near overbought conditions."

"We remain constructive, though a cleaner extension higher likely requires renewed weakness in yields, USD and a decisive break above the 70.60–72 resistance area."

"A sustained break above this zone would provide stronger confirmation that the recovery has further to run, potentially towards 80.30 (38.2% fibo of 2026 high to low)."

"Support at 61.30 – 62 area (21, 50 DMAs) before 54-55 levels (2026 low). Recovery bias would be nullified on downside breach."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Gold may find the primary resistance at the three-month high of $4,697.07.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 67 shows strong bullish momentum.
• The nine-day EMA of $4,557.72 acts as the primary support.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $4,610 during the European hours on Friday. The price of the precious metal is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.

The XAU/USD pair is retaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the short- and medium-term trends aligned to the upside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 67, hovering in bullish territory but shy of extreme overbought conditions, which suggests upside momentum is still dominant though increasingly stretched.

Gold price may rise toward the three-month high of $4,697.07, reached on August 25. A break above this level would open the doors for the XAU/USD pair to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $4,850.00.

On the downside, the immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of $4,557.72, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $4,500. A break below this confluence support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the Gold price to test the 50-day EMA at $4,336.84, followed by the three-week low of $4311.04, which was recorded on August 14.

Gold could soften as real yields firm, Oil extends gains

Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight a firmer backdrop in rates and commodities, noting that the "10y US Real Yield @ 2.34 // 2 bp" and "10y US Breakevens @ 2.33 // 1 bp" both edged higher, alongside a rise in "10y German Breakeven @ 2.13 // 2 bp." Credit markets were broadly steady, with "iTraxx Europe 125 @ 51 // unch," "CDX 125 @ 50 // unch," and "CDX EM @ 98.4 // unch," while financial indices were little moved as "iTraxx Sen Fin @ 54 // unch" and "iTraxx Sub Fin @ 87 // +1" showed only marginal shifts. In commodities and FX, Deutsche Bank points to "WTI Oil^ @ 83.13 // +1.94%" and a slightly softer Euro as "EUR/USD^ @ 1.165 // -0.10%." Equity sentiment in Asia was constructive, with the "NIKKEI @ 66624 // +0.74%" and "Hang Seng @ 25685 // +0.47%," while volatility eased as the "VIX @ 14.51 // -0.70" slipped further. Against this backdrop of rising real yields and stronger Oil, the bank notes that "Gold^ @ 4579 // -0.85%" came under pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect India’s 1QFY27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to confirm that the economy has weathered geopolitical disruptions better than initially feared. They note stronger consumption gauges, improving production, and ongoing support from services and exports, even as muted wealth effects, soft fuel demand and higher energy costs weigh on some sectors and the external balance.

Growth holding up despite disruptions

"GDP growth in 1QFY27 is likely to suggest that the economy weathered geopolitical disruptions better than initially factored in."

"Our consolidated consumption gauge strengthened during the quarter, even as sentiment indicators, pointed to a more cautious backdrop and wealth effects remained muted amid subdued capital market performance."

"Production activity picked up, although demand for industrial fuels and downstream petroleum products remained soft following a series of price adjustments."

"Meanwhile, the services sector continued to provide support to overall growth, as reflected in robust bank credit expansion, PMIs remaining in expansionary territory, higher e-way bill generation, and resilient export growth."

"Corporate earnings indicators were also broadly constructive, with aggregate revenue growth across listed firms remaining resilient, although higher energy prices weighed on the profitability of oil marketing companies."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

MUFG’s Michael Wan reviews recent decisions by Bank of Korea (BoK), Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), stressing a shared risk-management approach under uncertainty. BoK and BSP both hiked 25 bps but signalled a slower pace ahead while keeping tightening options open. Wan links these policy stances to its broader Asia FX and rates positioning.

BoK, BSP and BoJ signal cautious tightening

"We had policy decisions and/or communication from 3 key Asian central banks yesterday (27 Aug), and one common thread was the idea of the central bank as a risk manager working under imperfect information and uncertainty over how long it takes for their tools to take effect, especially during times of structural changes and shocks."

"On that note from a policy decision perspective, we had both the BoK and BSP raising their key policy rates by 25bps yesterday to 3.00% and 5.00% respectively (from 2.75% and 4.75%)."

"More importantly for markets, the communication and tone for both generally pointed to a slower pace of rate hikes moving forward, even as both the BoK and BSP kept the option to do more to tighten monetary policy to address inflation risks moving forward."

"Meanwhile, BSP Governor Remolona highlighted the meaningful risks of a severe El Nino and minimum wage hikes to inflation, and with that the BSP will tighten as much as they need to."

"BoK also raised its 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts to 3.3% and 2.9% (from 2.6% and 2.1%), while keeping its inflation forecasts unchanged."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD held near 1.1650 after a brief dip, with intraday action lacking strong downside momentum. They judge the earlier bullish phase has faded after a break of strong support at 1.1640, shifting to a range between 1.1600 and 1.1685 in the coming days. Longer term, they still flag upside targets at 1.1800 and 1.1850.

Bullish bias cools into consolidation band

"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR dipped to a low of 1.1636 yesterday before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1651 (+0.02%). The decline did not result in a significant increase in downward momentum. Today, EUR is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.1630 and 1.1665."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on EUR early last week (as annotated in the chart below). In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1675), we highlighted that “there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725.” Yesterday, EUR fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1640. The breach of our ‘strong support’ indicates that upward momentum has eased. EUR appears to have entered a range-trading phase. For the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1600 and 1.1685."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/JPY crawls above 159.50, heading to the key 160.00 area.
• Hot Tokyo CPI figures and an unexpected decline in unemployment have failed to support the Yen.
• The US Dollar shows a firmer tone ahead of Fed Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower for the fifth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, despite hot Tokyo inflation numbers and an unexpected decline in the Unemployment Rate earlier in the day. The USD/JPY has reached fresh weekly highs above 159.50, drawing closer to the key 160.00 level.

Data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday revealed that the advanced Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to a 1.9% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) rate in August from 2% in July, but that the Core CPI, more relevant for the Bank of Japan (BoJ), accelerated to 1.8% (Y-o-Y) in August from 1.7% in July, beating market forecasts of a steady 1.7% rate and approaching the BoJ’s 2% target.

These figures come shortly after the BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned about mounting inflationary pressures and called for timely interest rate hikes to avoid abrupt hikes later if consumer prices run out of control.

Beyond that, Japan’s Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% in July, its lowest level in the last 12 months, against market expectations of a steady 2.5% reading, boosting expectations that the BoJ might hike interest rates at next month’s meeting.

All eyes are on Fed’s Warsh

The focus on Friday, however, will be on the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, namely on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech, due later on the day, with investors eager for some hints about the bank’s plans to tame above-target inflation. Fed policymakers put pressure on him on Thursday, calling for monetary tightening amid the hot inflationary pressures.

Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt said on CNBC that inflation is “still sticky and we've got to continue to find ways to break through" while the Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that it is “time to act,” referring to interest rate hikes.

According to Commerzbank, markets are likely to concentrate on two key aspects of Kevin Warsh’s upcoming remarks. First, investors will be watching “how clearly he speaks regarding a possible interest rate hike in September.” Second, they will be alert to “whether he hints that the Fed might, as part of the five working groups, change the specific figure to which the Fed’s inflation target refers,” a shift that could carry important implications for the Dollar and the broader policy outlook.

• WTI could rebound toward the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of $82.75.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 51 signals neutral momentum as overbought conditions cool.
• The pair may find immediate support at the 50-day EMA of $81.69.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after two days of gains, trading around $82.20 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the spot is remaining within the ascending channel, suggesting that the primary trend is upward.

WTI holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price has slipped back under the nine-day EMA, hinting at a pause within the broader recovery, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral momentum after easing from prior overbought territory.

The immediate resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of $82.75. A rebound above the short-term moving average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the WTI price to target the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $90.40, followed by the nearly three-month high of $92.25, reached on July 23.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of $81.69, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $80.80. A sustained break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the WTI price to navigate the region around the seven-week low of $72.53, followed by the six-month low of $67.09, which was recorded on July 2.

On the Brent side, Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team notes that the latest move “as there were still few signs of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.” They highlight comments from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who told Fox News that “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way,” underlining the ongoing geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says accelerating inflation in Tokyo has strengthened the case for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September. Markets are pricing an implied probability of around 84% for a move, while the BoJ has yet to give clear guidance on timing. Baur argues that a delay would likely put significant pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Rising inflation builds case for BoJ move

"Nothing stands in the Bank of Japan’s way anymore. In August, inflation in the Greater Tokyo area stood at 1.9%; excluding energy and fresh food, it was even 2.0%. Annualizing the past three months reveals an acceleration in inflation, and service sector inflation, at 0.39% in August, was at its highest level in nearly a year and has also shown accelerating momentum over the past three months."

"Inflation has thus not only reached its 2% target but also threatens to rise above it in the coming months. The context of this rising inflation remains an environment of high energy prices, expansionary fiscal policy, and a policy rate that is, at best, at the lower end of what the central bank itself would describe as its neutral rate. It’s actually a pretty clear-cut case: the policy rate should rise."

"The market sees it similarly. The implied probability of an interest rate hike in September has recently risen again and now stands at around 84%. Only the Bank of Japan has yet to make any clear statements regarding the timing of its next move. And Deputy Governor Himino, too, preferred in his speech yesterday not to get specific just yet."

"A bit of uncertainty therefore remains. However, the signs clearly point to an interest rate hike in September. Anything else would likely put the JPY under significant pressure."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent Oil prices have recovered, with ICE Brent up 2.1% as prospects for renewed US-Iran talks fade and flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually increase. They highlight Venezuela’s potential exit from OPEC as relations with the US improve, which could reduce OPEC’s formal influence but still leave the wider OPEC+ group with substantial market power.

Brent supported by geopolitics and OPEC shifts

"Oil prices ended higher for the first time this week yesterday, with ICE Brent settling up 2.1%. The renewed strength comes after reports that President Trump told mediators the US has no intention of returning to the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding."

"Instead, he indicated, the US is happy to see whether growing economic pressure on Iran yields better results. Optimism grew through the week amid efforts to restart talks."

"Despite diplomatic efforts hitting a roadblock, there are growing signs of additional oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. We’ve been assuming oil flows through this key chokepoint have averaged 5m b/d."

"OPEC faces the risk of another member exiting the group after the UAE’s departure earlier this year. Venezuela is considering leaving the group as relations with the US improve following the ousting of Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year."

"While an exit would reduce OPEC’s influence over the oil market, the group still holds a large market share, particularly when you factor in OPEC+."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)