Forex News
- USD/CHF gives up part of its early advance as the Greenback struggles to hold its recovery.
- Suspected Japanese intervention and the possibility of US action keep the US Dollar under pressure.
- Traders await Swiss inflation data due on Monday.
USD/CHF trims part of its earlier gains on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to regain momentum following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, which was driven by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY).
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8086 after reaching an intraday high of 0.8128. USD/CHF is still up around 0.45% on the day but is heading for a weekly loss.
The Greenback initially attempted to recover from six-week lows before losing strength after Reuters reported that the US Treasury had informed several banks it may intervene in the Yen market on Friday and advised them to “stand ready for future action.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.07, easing from an intraday high of 100.45.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that “the USD rally from May has run its course, with DXY poised to retreat into a 96.00-100.00 range.” They note that the earlier “tailwind to USD from resilient US economic activity” is now being overshadowed by concerns that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has “fail[ed] to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy,” thereby “increasing the risk the Fed falls behind the curve in containing inflation.”
On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range for a fifth consecutive meeting, with three policymakers backing an immediate 25-basis-point (bps) hike.
One of the dissenters, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, said on Friday, “I would have preferred a quarter-point rate increase to better balance the outlook and risks.” She added that “modest Fed action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing sharper action later.”
Traders still see a meaningful chance that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in around a 65% probability of a hike in September.
On the Swiss side, traders await July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Monday. Annual inflation eased to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May, remaining near the lower end of the SNB's price-stability range and reinforcing expectations that the central bank will keep its policy rate at 0%.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | -0.01% | -0.18% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.44% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.35% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.19% | -0.19% | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.46% | |
| JPY | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.19% | 0.32% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.66% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.07% | -0.12% | -0.32% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.05% | -0.25% | 0.06% | -0.00% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | 0.13% | -0.05% | -0.26% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.44% | -0.27% | -0.46% | -0.66% | -0.34% | -0.39% | -0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that stronger-than-expected Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support a brighter growth outlook but do not materially change their Bank of Canada (BoC) view. They highlight that Q2 GDP is tracking above BoC projections, yet still expect policy rates to remain unchanged through 2026 before a gradual hiking cycle begins in early 2027.
BoC seen on extended 2026 hold
"The Canadian growth outlook looks a little brighter after industry-level GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in May (0.34% unrounded) for an upside surprise against expectations (TD & market) for a 0.2% increase and flash estimates for GDP to rise by 0.1%."
"This report leaves Q2 GDP tracking at 3.4%, above BoC projections, but we look for the Bank to stay patient before hiking rates in 2027."
"While this report bodes well for the near-term growth outlook, the Bank of Canada can remain patient going forward."
"The upside surprise on May GDP should give the Bank some added confidence that the economy is adjusting this environment of heightened uncertainty, but we continue to look for the Bank to stay on hold through 2026 as excess supply is slowly absorbed before hiking to 2.75% in early 2027."
"We continue to see the BoC staying on hold for 2026, and imagine it would feel quite comfortable with that decision after today's print."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner describes USD/JPY’s rollercoaster, with a 3% drop on reported Japanese intervention followed by a near 2% rebound. He notes that coordinated Fed-Treasury involvement was key in January but now sees the story as having moved on. Turner expects more Japanese FX intervention, yet believes it can only slow, not reverse, the underlying USD/JPY bull trend without a clearer Fed shift.
Japanese action tempers but does not end the rally
"USD/JPY has been on a rollercoaster, falling 3% yesterday on Japanese intervention, only to bounce back near 2% overnight. The Nikkei reported that Japanese authorities did indeed intervene yesterday and that the Fed, as it did in January, also checked rates yesterday afternoon."
"Back in January, the Fed checking USD/JPY rates on behalf of the US Treasury was a big story which reflected the co-ordinated nature of intervention and the shared concern by the US and Japan over the weak yen."
"However, the story has moved on now, and we would need to see some own-account intervention from US authorities to give USD/JPY another leg lower."
"We could well see some more Japanese FX intervention today and early next week, since intervention typically comes in blocks of a few days."
"But until we get a clearer signal that the Fed is not going to hike in September and the broader dollar trend clearly turns lower, intervention can only slow rather than reverse the underlying USD/JPY bull trend."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold retreats as the US Dollar regains ground following Thursday's sharp decline.
- Elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East war keep inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations in focus.
- Technical indicators suggest stabilization, with XAU/USD holding above $4,000 despite remaining below key moving averages.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following the previous day’s sharp sell-off, while hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations remain a key headwind for the non-yielding metal.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,040, down nearly 1.50% on the day after struggling to sustain gains above $4,100.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to a six-week low on Thursday amid suspected foreign exchange intervention by Tokyo to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). The DXY, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.28, up 0.30% on the day.
The Greenback attracts fresh bids as the war in the Middle East supports demand, while the resulting rise in energy prices heightens inflation concerns and reinforces expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the index remains on track to end July in negative territory.
Meanwhile, Gold looks set to snap a four-month losing streak as buyers continue to defend the psychological $4,000 level. However, the prospect of higher US interest rates is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting the metal’s upside.
The Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, with three policymakers voting for an immediate rate hike. Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stopped short of offering clear forward guidance, he reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the three dissenters, said on Friday, “If inflation remains elevated, a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and concluding that bolder actions were necessary.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently price in around a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.
On the data front, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 55.2 in July from 54.4, while the Consumer Expectations Index improved to 55.4 from 54. Meanwhile, one-year and five-year consumer inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
In the near term, XAU/USD is expected to remain range-bound as traders assess developments in the Middle East and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook, while technical indicators point to signs of stabilization.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD recovery remains capped below the 21-day SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD shows signs of stabilization after repeatedly finding support around the psychological $4,000 mark, while holding beneath a cluster of key moving averages.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum rather than strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 28 suggests that the earlier downtrend is losing strength.
On the downside, the $4,000 level provides immediate support, with a sustained break below this area exposing the next cushion near $3,850. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,071.
A decisive move above this level could open the door towards the 50-day SMA at $4,185, while the 100-day SMA at $4,425 represents a stronger barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 12:30 GMT to update the Gold price in the second paragraph. XAU/USD was trading around $4,053, not $4,0553.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD falls on Friday after weaker-than-expected Chinese business activity data.
- China's PMI contraction weighs on the New Zealand Dollar despite improving consumer confidence at home.
- The US Dollar rebounds as markets continue to assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Friday, down 0.33% on the day, as investors react to another deterioration in Chinese business activity. China, New Zealand's largest trading partner, reported that the official NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 previously, missing the 50 market consensus. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49 from 50.2, pointing to a broader slowdown in economic activity.
The weak Chinese data overshadowed more encouraging developments in New Zealand. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose by eight points to 99.3 in July, its highest level since February. Expectations for the economy over the next one and five years also improved, suggesting a gradual recovery in household sentiment.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum as investors continue to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. Markets still see another rate hike as a possibility, supported by persistent inflation concerns. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently assign around a 65% chance to a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the September meeting.
The latest US economic data also reinforced that view. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised higher to 55.2 in July from the preliminary estimate of 54.4, while the Consumer Expectations Index was revised up to 55.4. One-year and five-year Consumer Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.28% | -0.10% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.28% | 0.71% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | -0.11% | -0.49% | -0.13% | -0.09% | -0.14% | 0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.28% | 0.11% | -0.39% | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.39% | 0.43% | 0.38% | 0.84% | |
| CAD | -0.26% | 0.13% | 0.01% | -0.39% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.46% | |
| AUD | -0.31% | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.43% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | 0.14% | 0.03% | -0.38% | -0.00% | 0.05% | 0.47% | |
| CHF | -0.71% | -0.32% | -0.44% | -0.84% | -0.46% | -0.40% | -0.47% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December. Their fair‑value estimate sits in the mid‑1.15s, with a near‑term 1.1450–1.1550 range.
Euro consolidates Fed‑driven gains
"The EUR is soft, down 0.2% vs. the USD with a drift toward 1.15 and a slight fade of this week’s rally. The preliminary euro area’s CPI release for July has offered little in terms of movement for spot, with headline coming in as expected at 2.9% y/y and core printing 2.5% y/y (vs. 2.4% exp.)."
"The French CPI data, released earlier, offered a modest lift to the EUR as the figures came in well above expectations. However the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold. Comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so."
"Rate expectations are showing signs of stabilization following their recent pullback and the market is currently pricing about 22bpts of tightening for September with a cumulative 42bpts of tightening by December. 2Y spreads (Germany-US) remain well supported and our narrow FV estimate is in the mid-1.15s."
"Bullish – the RSI remains bullish in the upper 50s and has seen an impressive reversal from the oversold (sub-30) bullish levels reached in late June. The 50 day MA (1.1482) has been broken and the daily chart offers little in terms of resistance ahead of 1.16. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1450 and resistance at 1.1550. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/JPY falls as suspected Japanese intervention rattles foreign exchange markets.
- The wide BoE-BoJ interest-rate gap supports the cross’s broader outlook despite the pullback.
- GBP/JPY slips below its 21-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs, pointing to renewed downside pressure.
GBP/JPY extends its slide on Friday as suspected intervention by Japanese authorities rattles the FX market and lifts the Yen across the board, pushing the cross further away from the multi-year high of 219.16 touched earlier this month. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 213.75, hovering near June lows.
Reuters reported, citing a market source, that Japan likely conducted a large-scale US Dollar-selling, Japanese Yen-buying intervention worth as much as $58.97 billion during Thursday's American trading hours. The move triggered a drop of more than 500 pips in GBP/JPY.
Separately, Reuters, citing a source familiar with the matter, reported that the US Treasury informed a number of banks it may intervene in the Yen market on Friday and advised them to "stand ready for future action."
The latest leg lower has weakened GBP/JPY’s near-term bullish structure. However, the broader outlook remains tilted to the upside, underpinned by the wide interest-rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% on Friday in an 8-1 vote. The central bank reiterated that it would continue raising borrowing costs if economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its forecasts.
Meanwhile, the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday in a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers backing an immediate rate hike to 4.0%. The central bank stands ready to adjust its policy stance if higher energy prices lead to second-round effects.
Technical analysis
The daily chart points to a bearish shift, with GBP/JPY now trading below the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative and declining, which together suggest renewed downside pressure while the cross remains capped by these overhead trend filters.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near 214.48, followed by the 50-day SMA around 215.65, with the 21-day SMA higher up at 217.42 before a more pronounced barrier at the horizontal pivot near 219.50.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the prior floor around 212.50, with a deeper cushion at 210.50, and a daily close below these levels would further extend the current corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- USD/JPY falls sharply toward 159.00 following Japanese Yen-buying intervention and volatile post-BoJ trading.
- The BoJ leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, but one policymaker votes for an increase to 1.25%.
- Progress toward Hamas disarmament improves risk sentiment, although Iranian attacks and Trump’s latest comments maintain geopolitical uncertainty.
USD/JPY trades sharply lower near the 159.50 area on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens following intervention by Japanese authorities and a relatively hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy announcement.
Japan reportedly entered the foreign-exchange market to purchase Yen and sell US Dollars after USD/JPY in recent weeks climbed to multi-decade highs. The intervention triggered an abrupt decline in the pair, although price action remains extremely volatile as investors assess whether officials will continue defending the currency.
The BoJ left its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.00%, as widely anticipated. The decision was approved by an 8–1 majority, with board member Hajime Takata voting to raise the rate to 1.25% due to increasing upside risks to inflation from overseas demand shocks and changes in global financial conditions.
Despite maintaining rates, the Japanese central bank reiterated that it would continue raising borrowing costs if economic activity, inflation and financial conditions evolve in line with its projections. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also indicated that the central bank could accelerate the pace of rate increases and would avoid falling behind the inflation curve, providing additional support to the Yen.
Geopolitical developments provide mixed signals for the US Dollar. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced an agreement intended to secure the phased disarmament of Hamas and the eventual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The development could reduce some safe-haven demand for the Greenback, although implementation remains conditional on commitments from the parties involved.
However, tensions surrounding Iran remain elevated. Kuwait said its air defenses intercepted Iranian drones targeting military and vital installations, while Trump stated that the war was progressing well and that the United States was “hitting Iran hard.”
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.12, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds well below the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered around 162.31 and 162.62. The pair remains capped by a band of overhead horizontal resistance beginning at 159.92 and reinforced at 160.57, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25 hovers in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet reversed.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at 159.92, with a stronger barrier at 160.57. Above these levels, the 20-period and 100-period MAs around 162.31 and 162.62, respectively, form a broader supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish tone. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.91, with a secondary floor at 158.56, and a clear break beneath this cluster would expose the pair to further declines in line with the dominant downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, with an advance estimate of 0.2% for June, indicating a solid second-quarter rebound after winter stagnation. They highlight broad-based sector gains and estimate Q2 annualized growth of 3.4%, above their 2.2% forecast, while warning that escalating trade tensions and new U.S. tariffs pose downside risks despite improving per-person and per-worker output.
Growth rebounds but trade risks loom
"The stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase in Canadian GDP in May (and early estimate of another 0.2% increase in June) added to evidence that the economy bounced back at a solid pace in the second quarter after growth stalled over the winter."
"Monthly GDP readings and advance estimates are notoriously revision-prone, but the preliminary estimate, including the June advance, points to annualized quarter-over-quarter growth of 3.4% in Q2, more than a percentage point above our 2.2% forecast."
"Looking ahead, escalating trade tensions and the latest U.S. tariff announcements pose downside risks to the outlook, particularly for targeted industries."
"Still, signs of a bounce-back in Q2 growth and stabilization in labour markets are encouraging."
"We continue to expect the economy to gradually improve on a per-person and per-worker basis this year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz highlight that Q2 United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.5% q/q AR, but underlying private domestic final purchases accelerated to 3.9%. They stress that AI (Artificial intelligence)-related activity remains a large share of the economy, yet growth outside AI sectors was strong. They argue this broader momentum suggests policy may not be highly restrictive.
Underlying momentum extends beyond AI
"Headline Q2 GDP growth moderated to 1.5% q/q AR, but underlying activity (private domestic final purchases) accelerated to a strong 3.9%."
"The percent of GDP that comes from AI-related activity remains high, but growth outside those sectors was strong in Q2."
"AI-related activity remains a large share of the economy, but robust Q2 growth beyond the AI sector showed encouraging signs of healthier, more broad-based economic momentum."
"Robust activity is also another sign that policy may not be that restrictive."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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