Forex News
Deutsche Bank strategists say a strong semiconductor rally and lower oil prices helped lift global equities. The S&P 500 rebounded as investors rotated from defensive sectors into growth and cyclical stocks, while gains in Micron and SK Hynix reinforced confidence in the AI investment cycle.
Chip strength underpins equity rebound
"Whilst lower oil prices helped sentiment, markets got another boost yesterday from the latest tech headlines, which saw the Philly semiconductor index (+3.06%) post its best daily performance in 3 weeks. That included a very strong gain for Micron (+4.52%), who raised their planned spending on new US plants to $250bn by 2035, which was $50bn on top of previously announced commitments. The rally also saw the SK Hynix ADR officially became the largest foreign company offering as the South Korean chipmaker raised $26.5bn – greater than expected and just ahead of the $25bn previously raised by Alibaba."
"So that chip rally helped to lift US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (+0.81%) recovering after back-to-back declines on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rally was fueled by investors rotating from defensives industries back into growth and cyclical names. Autos (+2.91%), Tech Hardware (+1.99%), Semis, +(1.90%), and Banks (+1.61%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Consumer Staples (-2.04%), Food & Bev (-1.77%), and Household Products (-1.58%) lagged. And in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.78%) advanced for the first time this week with a similar rotation from defensives into cyclicals."
"So for now we can go back to trying to guess whether we’ll wake up to the KOSPI being up or down more than 5%. If you guessed in the positive side this morning you’d be correct as it’s surging +5.11% as I type, after officially entering bear-market territory yesterday."
"Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+1.85%) has climbed to its highest level since June 17, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.77%) is also posting strong gains. The CSI 300 (+0.49%), Shanghai Composite (+0.75%), and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.51%) are also up. US and European futures are down between a tenth and two tenths of a percent though. 10yr USTs are -1.2bps lower trading at 4.54% and oil is fairly flat."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5775 in Friday’s early European session.
- The pair keeps a bearish vibe in the daily chart, holding below the 100-day SMA.
- The immediate resistance level to watch is 0.5825; the initial support level is seen at 0.5770.
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% and signaled the potential for more hikes this year. RBNZ govorner Anna Breman said that the geopolitical environment is still highly uncertain, but the domestic economy has shown a lot of resilience in the past few months despite the fuel shock.
Traders are fully pricing two additional, quarter-point rate hikes from the New Zealand central bank through December, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from pricing a 36% chance the day before RBNZ’s meeting, the data showed.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a capped tone as it holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band. The pair, however, trades above the Bollinger middle band around 0.5712, suggesting nearby downside support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 hints that the latest bounce carries modest positive momentum but not yet enough to overturn the broader downside bias.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band around 0.5825, with the 100-day SMA just above at 0.5840 forming a tight supply cluster that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the recent price pivot around 0.5770, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.5712 and then the lower band around 0.5601, where a break would expose a deeper extension of the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- Silver price gains to near $60.22 amid signs of US-Iran war de-escalation.
- A US official has confirmed that technical talks between the US and Iran are still on.
- Investors await the US CPI data, which will be released next week.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.4% higher to near $60.22 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to remain under pressure amid hopes that the restart of the war between the United States (US) and Iran won’t long last.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% lower to near 100.76. The DXY fell further during the day to near its three-week low at around 100.60.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
Earlier in the day, a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran remained continued, despite President Donald Trump declaring that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tehran is over.
Late Wednesday, US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Iran, adding that the nation wants the deal badly. However, he doesn’t believe that Iran would honor the deal.
Meanwhile, a steep correction in oil prices after significant gains earlier this week has also supported the Silver price. The WTI Crude Oil price holds onto Thursday’s losses near $72.00.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released next week.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
DBS economist Radhika Rao expects India’s June CPI inflation to edge up to 4.1% YoY from 3.9%, driven by food normalisation and fuel-cost pass-through. She sees limited upside risks to core inflation, an improving but uneven southwest monsoon, and the June trade deficit remaining elevated near USD 28.5 billion despite the recent oil-price correction.
Mild CPI rise and trade deficit
"June CPI inflation is expected to rise marginally to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% the month before, on continued normalisation in food segments and passthrough of fuel costs through the related segments."
"Beyond food and fuel, upside risks to core inflation appear limited, amid softer gold as well as precious metal prices and little scope for further pump price adjustments."
"Markets are also focused on the spatial and geographical spread of ongoing southwest monsoon."
"Encouragingly, the nationwide rainfall shortfall has narrowed considerably into July to -15% (as of 8 July), from over 40% gap in end-June, with key crop-producing belts of central and northwest India witnessing improvements."
"June trade data are unlikely to fully capture the impact of the mid-month correction in oil prices, with the trade deficit expected to remain elevated at around $28.5bn."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that the National Bank of Poland kept rates at 3.75% and a neutral stance, but Governor Adam Glapinski’s press conference was markedly dovish. He floated a possible September rate cut and downplayed inflation and FX risks, leading Commerzbank to expect Polish Zloty (PLN) underperformance versus Czech Koruna (CZK) as markets price in easing in coming quarters.
NBP dovish tilt weakens zloty case
"Poland’s National Bank (NBP) delivered a cautious July sitting, on paper, with unchanged 3.75% rate, a neutral stance, and updated macroeconomic projections which appear stagflationary. As examples, the new Inflation Report raised the 2026 CPI mid-point by 0.60pp to 2.85% and 2027 by 0.35pp to 2.75%, while trimming GDP growth for those years by 0.20pp and 0.15pp respectively."
"But, the press conference tore up this story: NBP Governor Adam Glapinski described the council as “cautiously dovish” and himself as “decidedly dovish”, openly floating a 25bp cut motion at the September meeting (if no fresh shock were to arrive). He conceded that fuel tax normalization will push inflation higher in coming months, but insisted CPI will stay inside the 2.5%±1pp band and portrayed recent developments – slower wage growth, softer commodity prices, a benign growth outlook – as inflation-supportive in the dovish sense."
"There was no genuine concern about second-round effects from the Iran shock. Glapinski even downplayed recent zloty weakness, simply repeating that the CB could intervene in FX if the move were to become “too sharp”."
"In essence, Glapinski confirmed our own view that the next move would be a rate cut, not hike, something markets could begin to price-in for Q4. The reason why Glapinski’s dovishness came as somewhat of a surprise is that the Iran situation had worsened in the past couple of days, and NBP’s forecast revisions matched up with that direction."
"This means that the main supportive factor for PLN – the idea that Iran might force NBP into a hawkish stance – has evaporated. With CNB still enjoying a more credible hawkish bias, the zloty is set to underperform the Czech koruna over the coming quarter."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD edges up above 1.1450 but remains capped below last week's top, at 1.1475.
- German inflation figures confirm that price pressures eased in June, adding to the case for an ECB pause in July.
- The US Dollar trades lower across the board as hopes of a negotiated end to Iran's war remain alive.
The Euro (EUR) holds minor gains against a somewhat softer US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The pair edged up to the mid-range of the 1.1400s, but it has failed to find acceptance above the top of the last two weeks' trading range, in the area of 1.1475, and is set to close the week practically unchanged.
In Germany, the final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June, released earlier on the day, confirmed the moderation in inflationary pressures anticipated by the preliminary reading, which eases pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates further at its July meeting.
German consumer inflation, as measured by the HICP, eased to a 2.4% year-over-year rate in June from 2,7% in May and April's 2.9% peak. Monthly inflation contracted 0.2%, also in line with preliminary estimations, and following a 0.% contraction in May. The impact of these figures on the Euro has been marginal.
The rebound in Oil prices weighs on the Euro
The resumption of the hostilities between the US and Iran and the ensuing rebound in oil prices, with traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz plunging, has acted as a headwind for any significant Euro recovery this week.
The US military launched a series of strikes on Iranian targets earlier this week in retaliation for alleged attacks from Tehran on vessels attempting to cross Hormuz, and Iranian forces responded by targeting US bases in Gulf countries. Markets, however, have taken these acts as manoeuvres to gain leverage in fut¡ure negotiations, and risk aversion has remained contained, which kept the Euro from falling further.
In the US, the minutes of the last Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a firm commitment to bring inflation to target. The central bank's governing board, however, was split on the near-term rate path, leaving investors pondering the timing for the next hike. The US Dollar retreated moderately after the release of the minutes.
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Jul 10, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.2%
Consensus: -0.2%
Previous: -0.2%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Jul 10, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.4%
Consensus: 2.4%
Previous: 2.4%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
- USD/JPY attracts some sellers to near 161.50 in Friday’s early European session.
- The prospect Japanese pension funds will invest more domestically to support the Japanese Yen.
- Fed's Williams doesn't expect a sustained surge in energy prices.
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to around 161.50 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the reports that Japan plans to encourage pension funds to increase their holdings of domestic financial assets.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the government is pursuing measures that would include the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets,” per Reuters. Analysts said this move could offer greater support to the battered currency than intervention.
Traders reduce their bets of a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, weighing on the Greenback against the JPY. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year.
Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting dropped to 24.6% from 31% in the previous session, but up from 18.2% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. For the September policy meeting, markets are pricing in a 62.3% chance of a hike, down from the 66.6% on Wednesday but an increase from the 54.1% a week earlier.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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