Forex News
- UK GDP is forecast to have eased a tad YoY in Q4 2025.
- The BoE expects the economy to expand by 0.9% in 2026.
- GBP/USD seems to have met firm resistance near 1.3900.
Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year. If forecasts match, it would suggest a steady but uninspiring outcome, hinting that momentum is starting to level off. On a QoQ basis, GDP is expected to show a modest expansion of 0.2%, slightly above the 0.1% in Q3, reinforcing the idea of an economy still growing, but doing so with less energy.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed a slightly more optimistic outlook, projecting growth of approximately 1.5% for the entire year.
That said, the policy outlook remains finely balanced. Given the cooling labour market and slowing domestic inflation, markets anticipate a further 25 basis point rate cut from the ‘Old Lady’ at its March 19 meeting, provided that incoming data continues to support this view.
Projections for the UK GDP
The ONS reported that the UK economy grew by 0.1% QoQ in Q3 2025, matching the previous quarter’s prints. On a monthly basis, GDP grew by a healthier 0.3% in November, but momentum is expected to fade again, with output seen rising by only 0.1% in the final month of 2025.
The BoE’s latest meeting echoed the softer tone. Policymakers have downgraded their growth outlook and now expect GDP to expand by 0.2% in Q4 2025, up from a flat reading previously pencilled in for December but still pointing to a very subdued end to the year.
Inflation remains the more uncomfortable part of the picture. The UK maintains its leading position in the inflation league table among its major peers. The latest ONS data showed headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rising to 3.4% YoY in December. Core CPI eased only marginally to 3.2% YoY, while services inflation remained stubbornly high at 4.5%, underlining why policymakers remain cautious despite the clear loss of growth momentum.
When will the UK release Q3 GDP, and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The UK will release the preliminary Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday at 7:00 GMT.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, says, “GBP/USD appears to have met some decent resistance at the 2026 ceiling at 1.3868 (January 27).”
“If bulls push harder, Cable could challenge the minor hurdle at the 1.3900 round level, ahead of the July 2021 peak at 1.3983 (July 21) and the weekly high at 1.4001 (June 23, 2021),” Piovano adds.
“On the flip side, the loss of the February base at 1.3508 (February 6) could see the interim 55-day SMA at 1.3455 retested, closely followed by the significant 200-day SMA at 1.3429,” he concludes.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Feb 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/USD softens to around 1.1860 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The upbeat US jobs report tempers bets for more Fed rate cuts, supporting the US Dollar.
- The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged over the rest of 2026, maintaining its data-dependent approach.
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
The Greenback strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as traders trim bets for a March Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut after the upbeat US jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Wednesday that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 130,000 in January, stronger than the expectation of 70,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December, better than the projection of 4.4%.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, up from 80% from the previous day.
Across the pond, the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) would likely hold interest rates steady for the rest of the year could support the shared currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference that the central bank would maintain its data-dependent and “meeting-by-meeting approach” and would not be “precommitting to a particular rate path.”
Around 85% of economists surveyed by Reuters in their January poll showed the ECB would leave the interest rates unchanged over the rest of 2026.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/INR falls as the Indian Rupee firmed, despite higher US yields after strong jobs data.
- The Indian Rupee receives support on possible intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
- The CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets price a 94% chance the Fed will hold rates, up from 80% previously.
USD/INR weakened on Thursday after posting modest gains in the previous session. The pair slipped as the Indian Rupee (INR) found support, with Asian currencies largely steady despite higher United States (US) Treasury yields following strong US jobs data. Traders told Reuters the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely intervened, helping the Rupee open stronger.
According to Reuters, a bank currency trader said the US–India trade deal and the latest US employment figures “change nothing.” The trader noted that the Rupee’s sensitivity to external cues has been limited in recent sessions. With the payrolls report failing to trigger significant moves in other asset classes, attention has shifted back to domestic dollar flows and market positioning.
US Dollar maintains position amid growing Fed caution
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive session and is trading near 97.00 at the time of writing. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Friday.
- The Greenback weakens despite growing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged after stronger-than-expected US jobs data. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, up from 80% the previous day. Markets anticipate the first cut likely in June and a possible follow-up in September.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 130,000 in January, following a revised 48,000 gain in December (previously 50,000), and surpassed market expectations of 70,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%.
- The US Census Bureau reported Tuesday that US Retail Sales were flat at $735 billion in December, following a 0.6% rise in November and missing expectations for a 0.4% increase. On a YoY basis, Retail Sales rose 2.4%, while total sales for October–December 2025 increased 3.0% (±0.4%) compared with the same period a year earlier.
- US inflation expectations eased, with median one-year-ahead inflation expectations falling to 3.1% in January, the lowest in six months, from 3.4% in December. Food price expectations were unchanged at 5.7%, while three- and five-year expectations remained steady at 3%.
- Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data and assessments of the economic outlook, adding on Friday that the labor market is gradually stabilizing. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation has remained elevated for too long, stressing in a Bloomberg interview on Friday that the Fed cannot lose sight of inflationary risks.
- The United States (US)–India interim trade framework. New Delhi and Washington on Friday unveiled an interim framework aimed at lowering tariffs, reshaping energy ties, and deepening economic cooperation. The announcement follows a breakthrough in prolonged negotiations earlier last week and helped lift the Rupee to its strongest weekly gain in more than three years.
- The US and India reached a wide-ranging trade agreement involving India buying more than $500 billion in purchases, tariff reductions, and provisions on digital trade, significantly reshaping bilateral commercial relations. India will also eliminate or lower tariffs on US industrial products and a broad spectrum of agricultural goods, with reductions covering food items such as grains, edible oils, fruit, wine, and spirits.
USD/INR trades near 90.50 after pulling back from the nine-day EMA
USD/INR is trading around 90.60 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis suggests a prevailing bearish bias, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trends higher, keeping the broader bias tilted upward as price holds above it. The nine-day EMA has flattened at 90.8611 and caps near-term rebounds, with spot hovering just beneath it. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 49.74 (neutral), indicating balanced momentum after cooling from recent overbought readings.
Initial support is located at the 50-day EMA at 90.51, followed by the four-week low of 90.15. A decisive break below this level could weaken medium-term momentum and open the door toward the channel’s lower boundary around 89.10. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the nine-day EMA near 90.83. A sustained move higher may target the upper boundary of the channel around 91.50, followed by the record high of 92.51 reached on January 28.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.10% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.00% | -0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.06% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.16% | |
| INR | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
- USD/JPY weakens as the Japanese Yen strengthens after renewed intervention warnings from Tokyo.
- Japan’s top FX official, Atsushi Mimura, said authorities are closely monitoring markets amid renewed Yen volatility.
- The US Dollar holds ground as Fed caution increases after stronger-than-expected jobs data.
USD/JPY extends its losses for the fourth successive session, trading around 152.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair weakens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens following renewed verbal intervention from Tokyo.
Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top FX official, Atsushi Mimura, said authorities are monitoring market moves “with a high sense of urgency” and remain vigilant amid renewed JPY volatility. Additionally, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the government would respond to currency movements in line with the US-Japan joint statement.
The JPY also draws support from optimism that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda will lift domestic growth. Analysts see signs of greater fiscal discipline and a more market-friendly approach ahead, prompting investors to increase exposure to Japanese equities on expectations of stimulus benefiting households and corporations.
The downside of the USD/JPY pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the rising likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) caution on policy outlook following stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Wednesday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Friday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls climbed by 130,000 in January, following a revised 48,000 increase in December (previously 50,000), exceeding market expectations of 70,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Gold drifts lower as traders trimmed bets for a March Fed rate cut after the upbeat US NFP.
- The Fed is still seen cutting rates twice in 2026, which fails to help the USD attract any buyers.
- Moreover, threats to the Fed’s independence help limit the downside for the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.
The blowout US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Wednesday tempered market expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and prompts some selling around the non-yielding bullion. The closely-watched US monthly employment details showed that the economy added 130K new jobs in January, up from the previous month's revised print of 48K and beating expectations for a reading of 70K.
Other details revealed that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.7%, compared to the expectation of 3.6%. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 95% chance that the US central bank will leave rates unchanged in March, up from 80% the previous day, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that the labor market looks like it is finding a healthy balance and that it is important for the central bank to get back to the 2% inflation goal. She added that policy is right around neutral and that it is good for the Fed to hold rates unchanged. Adding to this, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted that further rate cuts could allow higher inflation to persist for longer.
The US Dollar (USD), however, struggles to capitalize on the post-NFP bounce from a nearly two-week low as traders remain confident that the Fed will deliver two 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts this year, with the first reduction seen in July. Adding to this, threats to the US central bank's independence keep the USD bulls on the defensive and help limit the downside for the Gold price, warranting some caution for aggressive bears.
The market attention now shifts to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Friday, which could offer more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and drive the USD demand. In the meantime, Thursday's release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be looked upon for short-term opportunities. Nevertheless, the supportive fundamental backdrop might continue to support and act as a tailwind for the Gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold could attract dip-buyers amid bullish technical setup
Momentum signals are mixed as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram contracts toward the zero mark at 0.17, with the MACD line marginally above the Signal line and upside pressure fading. The Relative Strength Index prints at 55.65 (neutral), aligning with a modest bullish tilt. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart rises steadily, and the Gold price holds above it, preserving a positive underlying bias. The 200 SMA currently stands at $4,757.23 and serves as immediate dynamic support.
Measured from the 5,599.68 high to the 4,409.26 low, the XAU/USD trades between the 50% retracement at $5,004.47 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,144.94, with the latter acting as resistance. A decisive push through the latter could extend the recovery phase, while failure to build momentum would keep XAU/USD consolidating above the rising 200-period SMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.38% | -0.21% | -2.88% | -0.64% | -1.49% | -0.51% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.38% | 0.18% | -2.58% | -0.26% | -1.11% | -0.13% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.18% | -2.42% | -0.44% | -1.29% | -0.30% | -0.49% | |
| JPY | 2.88% | 2.58% | 2.42% | 2.34% | 1.47% | 2.50% | 2.19% | |
| CAD | 0.64% | 0.26% | 0.44% | -2.34% | -0.75% | 0.15% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 1.49% | 1.11% | 1.29% | -1.47% | 0.75% | 1.00% | 0.81% | |
| NZD | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.30% | -2.50% | -0.15% | -1.00% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.31% | 0.49% | -2.19% | 0.06% | -0.81% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF may weaken as the Swiss Franc strengthens on rising domestic yields amid safe-haven demand.
- The SNB is expected to hold rates at 0%, with inflation on target and negative rates unlikely.
- The US Dollar holds ground as Fed caution increases after stronger-than-expected jobs data.
USD/CHF remains steady after two days of gains, trading around 0.7710 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the pair may weaken as the Swiss Franc (CHF) could receive support as Switzerland’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 0.32%, its highest level since December, amid sustained safe-haven demand. Rising yields enhance the appeal of Swiss assets for foreign investors, boosting capital inflows and lending support to the currency.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0% in the near term, as inflation is projected to remain on target over the next two years and the bar for reintroducing negative rates remains high.
Ongoing concerns around artificial intelligence and reports that Chinese regulators have urged financial institutions to limit exposure to US Treasuries due to policy uncertainty added to the cautious market tone.
Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic releases for clues on the interest rate outlook. Switzerland’s January inflation figures, scheduled for February 13, are expected to show annual inflation holding at a muted 0.1%.
The USD/CHF pair maintains its position as the US Dollar (USD) receives support amid rising likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) caution on policy outlook following stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Wednesday.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, up from 80% the previous day. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Friday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, following a revised 48,000 increase in December (previously 50,000), beating market forecasts of 70,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | -0.01% | -0.24% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.33% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | 0.10% | -0.23% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.33% | 0.23% | 0.29% | 0.34% | 0.22% | 0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.29% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.34% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.05% | -0.22% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.07% | -0.03% | -0.24% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- AUD/JPY attracts some sellers on Thursday and is pressured by notable JPY strength.
- Prospects for more BoJ interest rate hikes and easing fiscal concerns underpin the JPY.
- The RBA’s hawkish outlook continues to support the AUD and limits losses for the cross.
The AUD/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply near the 109.40 area during the Asian session on Thursday and slides back closer to the weekly trough, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 108.70 region, down 0.40% for the day, though the downside potential seems limited.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative outperformance that followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's victory in the lower house election on Sunday, which paved the way for more stimulus. Meanwhile, investors remain hopeful that Takaichi could be more fiscally responsible and her policies will boost the economy, prompting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stick to its rate-hike path. This, in turn, continues to boost the JPY and is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the AUD/JPY cross.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, remains supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish outlook. In fact, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said earlier today that the central bank will raise interest rates again if inflation becomes entrenched. Adding to this, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that inflation is expected to remain above the 2% to 3% annual target for some time and that the labour market has stabilised from its earlier slowdown but remains tight.
Traders are currently pricing in a greater chance that the RBA will hike interest rates again at its May policy meeting. Apart from this, China's inflation figures released this Wednesday reinforced concerns that deflationary pressures continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy and raised hopes for more stimulus. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment, is seen as underpinning the risk-sensitive and holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the AUD/JPY cross.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Thursday that she expects the labor market to remain tight and inflation above target for some time. Hunter added that she will be closely assessing capacity pressures in the economy and labor market.
Key quotes
Expect labor market to remain tight and inflation above target for some time.
Will be closely assessing capacity pressures in economy and labour market.
Need to assess the extent to which recent rise in inflation is temporary.
Labour market has stabilised recently and remains somewhat tight.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.12% lower on the day to trade at 0.7116.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- NZD/USD drifts higher to around 0.6055 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Westpac sees the RBNZ keeping its policy settings unchanged at its February meeting, nudging the first rate hike to December 2026.
- Traders trimmed bets for a March Fed rate cut after the upbeat US jobs data.
The NZD/USD pair gains traction near 0.6055 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. However, the expectations of a slow and cautious Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening cycle might cap the upside for the pair. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Friday.
New Zealand's Unemployment Rate climbed to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the highest since 2015. Softer labor data push out bets for the RBNZ tightening, which might weigh on the Kiwi.
The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at its February meeting while modestly bringing forward the timing of its first projected rate increase, according to a new research note from Westpac.
On the USD’s front, stronger-than-expected US jobs data for January reduces the chances the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will see a need to cut interest rates again by midyear. This, in turn, could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% odds that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, up from 80% from the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders will closely monitor the US inflation data on Friday for fresh impetus. The headline and core CPI are expected to show a rise of 2.5% YoY in January. On a monthly basis, the headline and core CPI are estimated to show an increase of 0.3% during the same period. Any signs of softer inflation in the US could undermine the USD against the NZD in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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