Forex News

• Gold appreciates for the second consecutive day, reaching levels close to $4,800.
• Hopes of a new round of negotiations between IS and Iran are weighing on the safe-haven USD.
• XAU/USD's recovery from 2026 lows near $4,100 has stalled below the $4,850 area.

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a moderate bullish tone for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with price action approaching the $4,800 level after bouncing from one-week lows at $4,664 on Monday. Speculation about a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is allowing a moderate risk aversion, which is buoying precious metals against the safe-haven US Dollar.

News reports hint at ongoing contacts between the US and Iran. Reuters affirmed earlier on Tuesday that delegations from both countries might be ready to resume peace negotiations in Pakistan this week, while US President Donald Trump assured on Monday that Iran had called asking to “work for a deal”. On Tuesday, US Vice President JD Vance said that it is up to Tehran to “take the next step·” in peace negotiations.

Technical Analysis: Looking for direction between $4,620 and $4,850

From a wider perspective, XAU/USD continues trading within a horizontal range with resistance at the $4,850 area holding bulls, with downside attempts limited by the 38.6% Fiboonacci retrecement of the March sell-off, around $4,620

Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 4-hour chart has popped up above the 50 midline, but remains capped below 60. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps hovering around the zero line, showing a lack of clear momentum.

Bulls should break the mentioned $4,850 resistance area (April 8 high) to resume the near-term bullish trend towards the 61.8 Fibonacci level, at $4,932, and a previous support turned resistance right above $5,000.

On the downside, a slide back through the $4,620 area would negate the bullish structure and expose March 26 lows at the $4,350 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US PPI Overview

The United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT.

According to estimates, the US headline PPI grew at a robust pace of 4.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) against 3.4% in February. On a monthly basis, the producer headline inflation rose strongly by 1.2% against the preliminary reading of 0.7%. The expectations for inflation at the producer level are high as energy crisis due to conflicts in the Middle East has raised gasoline prices in the US.

The core PPI – which strips off volatile items such as food and energy – is estimated to have risen at an annual pace of 4.2% against the previous release of 3.9%. Month-on-Month (MoM) core producer inflation is expected to have grown 0.6% vs. 0.5% in February.

Theoretically, higher producer inflation discourages Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from reducing interest rates, while soft figures open the door for monetary policy easing. Fed policy’s market expectations are also influenced by labor market conditions.

Meanwhile, traders have priced out expectations of interest rate hikes by the Fed this year as prospects that the US and Iran will reach a permanent ceasefire remain intact.

How could the US PPI data affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades 0.3% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1633, keeping the recent rebound intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) enters the 60.00+ zone after two months, suggesting buyers retain control after an extended recovery from last month’s lows.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1700, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1633. A breakdown below the 20-day EMA would dampen the current bullish structure. Looking up, the spot could rise towards the February high of 1.1928 if it manages to settle above the immediate hurdle of 1.1825.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Gold steadied after an early stumble and remains underpinned by unresolved geopolitical risks and structural demand. They highlight intact bullish daily momentum, nearby support and resistance levels, and ongoing central bank diversification flows. OCBC prefers buying pullbacks rather than chasing strength, with near-term direction guided by ceasefire headlines and broader risk sentiment.

Structural demand and levels guide strategy

"Gold steadied after an early stumble. With geopolitics unresolved, structural support holds. Prefer buying pullbacks over chasing strength as markets take cues from ceasefire headlines and broader risk sentiment."

"Gold’s early decline to 4645 was partially retraced into NY hours. Last seen at 4720 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while rise in RSI moderated. 2-way risks likely."

"Support at 4670 (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo). Resistance at 4850 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4915 (50 DMA)."

"While no-deal over the weekend had dented sentiment, gold remains supported by structural drivers. Central bank demand, though uneven on a monthto-month basis, continues to reflect broader diversification efforts, and gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty remains relevant within diversified portfolios."

"Hence, we remain in favour of buying on dip (instead of chasing longs) in current environment. Focus remains on how the ceasefire and discussion pan out, while near-term directional trade can still take cues from broader risk sentiment. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has retreated below $100 as hopes grow for a US–Iran deal, easing fears of a stagflationary shock. They highlight that spot Brent is back under $98, while the 6‑month and 12‑month futures trade significantly lower, suggesting markets still expect a temporary conflict and a normalization in energy prices.

Brent curve points to temporary conflict

"Amidst all that newsflow, the market focus was on the prospect of further talks, which helped to keep oil prices beneath $100/bbl. So Brent crude was only up +4.37% by the close yesterday at $99.36/bbl, paring back its stronger gains from earlier in the session."

"The market optimism has continued this morning, with oil prices falling back amidst growing hopes that the US and Iran might still reach some kind of deal. Indeed, Brent crude is down another -1.61% overnight to $97.76/bbl, which is easing fears about a stagflationary shock, and significantly, the S&P 500 (+1.02%) closed above its pre-strike level on February 27."

"We can also see that investors are still expecting a temporary conflict, as the energy futures curve is sharply downward sloping, with the 6-month Brent future at $83.55/bbl this morning, and the 12-month future at $78.57/bbl."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and hawkish MPC members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene speak today, with Greene recently sounding more balanced. ING expects Bailey to signal a pause, and maintains the view that the BoE will not hike further this year, which they see as consistent with a move to 0.88 in EUR/GBP.

BoE pause view underpins EUR/GBP outlook

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in New York this afternoon. Earlier in the day, the two most hawkish MPC members, Catherine Mann and Megan Greene, are also due to deliver remarks. Greene has actually been rather balanced in recent comments, highlighting the dual impact of higher inflation and lower demand from the oil shock."

"Bailey may well retain a balanced tone himself, implicitly signalling that a pause is the preferred course of action for now."

"We remain of the view that the BoE won’t hike rates (market pricing 45bp by year-end), which should help a move to 0.88 in EUR/GBP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Rabobank strategists note that US stocks have risen even as the Hormuz crisis threatens higher energy costs. They point to upcoming United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism index as key for gauging upstream inflation, pricing power and labour costs, suggesting the Dollar’s outlook will hinge on how energy and supply‑chain pressures filter into broader US inflation dynamics.

PPI and NFIB in focus for markets

"Today sees US PPI, with markets alert to signs that energy and supply‑chain pressures are lifting upstream inflation. We also have the US NFIB small business optimism index, which will be monitored for insight into pricing power and labour costs."

"US stocks closed up and oil is currently down around 2%, or at least the screen price of Brent is, which doesn’t mean much in the physical trading space. There may be a little logic to that market optimism, driven by a majority who focus as much mental energy on ignoring bad news as a minority expend in trying to flag these kinds of major crises in advance."

"However, back-channel diplomacy continues alongside blockade(s). Indeed, Vice President Vance claims there could yet be “a grand deal,” but “the ball is in Iran’s court” - and Iran reportedly said it would only agree to suspend uranium enrichment for five years after the US had requested 20-year halt.That means there *might* be movement on the nuclear front, which could unlock much else in the negotiations."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $77.89 per troy ounce, up 3.00% from the $75.62 it cost on Monday.

Silver prices have increased by 9.57% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 61.40 on Tuesday, down from 62.72 on Monday.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights Australia’s growing dependence on imported diesel, with around 87% of demand met by imports in 2025. He warns that any diesel supply bottlenecks could hit the mining sector, which consumes a large share of diesel and generates about half of exports, potentially pressuring the Australian Dollar. Current shipping data, however, show no immediate disruption.

Import reliance could weigh on currency

"Australia’s crude oil production has been declining for many years, and with the closure of refineries, the country’s dependence on imports for petroleum products has also increased."

"While Australia still produced 60% of its diesel domestically in 2009, by 2025, approximately 87% of diesel demand had to be met through imports."

"The largest consumer of diesel is the mining industry. It is estimated that mining accounts for about 10 of the approximately 35 billion liters consumed annually in Australia. "

"Should supply bottlenecks in diesel occur, the industry sector responsible for around 50% of Australian exports could also be affected. Prolonged production restrictions and reduced exports could therefore put pressure on the Australian dollar."

"For the moment, therefore, supplies appear to be functioning normally. However, the risk remains as long as the problems in the Strait of Hormuz persist."

"At present, however, shipping data does not yet indicate that there have been any problems with the supply of oil and oil products. In March, 265 oil tankers docked at Australian ports - the highest number in two years. While the first 11 days of April point to a figure around 220, this is not cause for concern but rather in line with recent months."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)