Forex News
- EUR/USD extends losses as robust US jobs data fuels Dollar demand ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.
- DXY clears the 200-day SMA, signaling potential upside toward 99.00 if gains hold.
- Eurozone producer prices deflate, reinforcing expectations that ECB easing has largely concluded.
EUR/USD drops for the fourth straight day on Thursday as jobs economic data fared better than expected. Data in the Eurozone reaffirmed traders that the European Central Bank easing cycle finished, as producer prices in the bloc deflated in December. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1652. down 0.19%.
The Euro weakens as upbeat US labor indicators overshadow softer Eurozone data
Market participants are turning to the Dollar ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, in part due to strong jobs market data. On Wednesday, ADP figures were solid while the Challenge Job Cuts report for December showed that companies fired less people than in November.
The data was followed by US jobless claims, which showed that fewer than expected Americans applied for unemployment benefits.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of currencies, has risen 0.19% up at 98.91, surpassing the key technical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level, which lies at 98.87. A daily close above the latter could propel the DXY, above the 99.00 mark.
Dovish comments of Fed Governor Stephen Miran were mostly ignored by market participants, which had priced in two rate cuts, according to Prime Market Terminal data. in the meantime, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured Federal Reserve officials, saying that they should not delay interest rate cuts, to propel economic growth.
In Europe, the docket was packed, with inflation continuing to ease and Consumer Confidence improving. However, the Economic Sentiment Indicator deteriorated in December, due to service providers, retailers and consumers.
Ahead the Eurozone economic docket will feature Retail Sales for the bloc, comments from ECB’s Philip Lane, and German Industrial Production data. in the US, the calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls, the release of the Unemployment Rate, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and housing data.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.56% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.86% | -0.34% | 0.15% | 0.81% | |
| EUR | -0.56% | -0.39% | -0.48% | 0.29% | -0.90% | -0.41% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | 0.39% | -0.19% | 0.70% | -0.51% | -0.02% | 0.66% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.48% | 0.19% | 0.81% | -0.38% | 0.11% | 0.83% | |
| CAD | -0.86% | -0.29% | -0.70% | -0.81% | -1.03% | -0.70% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | 0.90% | 0.51% | 0.38% | 1.03% | 0.49% | 1.17% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.41% | 0.02% | -0.11% | 0.70% | -0.49% | 0.68% | |
| CHF | -0.81% | -0.26% | -0.66% | -0.83% | 0.03% | -1.17% | -0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Euro weighed by US jobs data
- US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 came in at 208K, below forecasts of 210K, though slightly higher than the prior week’s 200K, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
- The data reinforces signs of a gradually improving labor market, following the December Challenger Job Cuts report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which showed employers announced 35,553 layoffs, nearly half of November’s 71,321.
- The US Goods and Services Trade Balance showed a sharp improvement in October, with the deficit narrowing to $29.4 billion from $48.1 billion, defying expectations for a widening to $58.9 billion. The surprise improvement was driven by a steep decline in imports, particularly in pharmaceuticals.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) indicated a mixed outlook among households. Short-term inflation expectations ticked higher, while medium- and long-term expectations remained unchanged.
- One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in December from 3.2%, while expectations over three- and five-year horizons held steady at 3.0%, signaling persistent but contained inflation concerns beyond the near term.
- In the Eurozone, the Producer Prices Index (PPI) accelerated to 0.5% from 0.1% in October, beyond market expectations of a 0.2% increase. Year-on-year, producer prices contracted at a 1.7% pace from -0.5% in October, but still at a slower pace than -1.9% forecasted by market analysts.
- Other data showed that the Consumer Confidence and the Business Climate in December improved. German Factory Orders for November, exceeding estimates of 1%, rose by 5.6% MoM, from 1.6% in October.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD prolongs its agony as traders eye the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD technical outlook weakened further and it seems poised to end the session below Wednesday’s low of 1.1672. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the trend is neutral to downward, but sellers need to push the pair below the key support seen at the 200-day SMA at 1.1561.
On the downside, initial support is found at the 50-day SMA at 1.1640, followed by the 200-day SMA around 1.1561. To revive the bullish case, buyers would need to reclaim 1.1700, followed by the 20-day SMA at 1.1733.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold holds flat after dipping to $4,407 as US yields and the US Dollar extend their recovery.
- Stronger US jobs data and a narrower trade deficit support the Greenback ahead of NFPs.
- Markets still price 56 bps of Fed cuts in 2026, keeping downside pressure contained.
Gold price hovers around its opening price on Thursday after hitting a daily low of $4,407 as US Treasury yields rise and the Greenback follows suit. Economic data in the US has improved the outlook of the labor market ahead of the release of the crucial December Nonfarm Payrolls report. XAU/USD trades at $4,455, virtually unchanged.
Bullion steadies ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls on firmer labor data, strong US Dollar
The US Dollar is staging a recovery after US jobs data showed that companies shed half of the people slashed in November. Furthermore, Initial Jobless Claims came below estimates despite jumping compared to the previous week, while a reduction of the US trade deficit was cheered by Dollar bulls.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.20% to 98.92 after clearing a key technical resistance level seen at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 98.87. However, US Dollar bulls must achieve a daily close above the latter to remain hopeful for a recovery.
Meanwhile, the New York Fed Survey of Consumers reported that inflation expectations and job perceptions deteriorated in December, according to the poll.
All in all, money markets have priced in 56 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
US economic docket for January 9
On Friday, traders will eye Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which are expected to show the economy added 60K jobs in December, less than November’s 64K. The Unemployment Rate is projected to dip from 4.6% to 4.5%.
Daily digest market movers: Upbeat US jobs data caps Gold advance
- US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 were below estimates of 210K, which came at 208K, above the previous week’s 200K. The report confirmed that the jobs market is improving following the release of the Challenger Job Cuts report in December, which revealed that companies shed 35,553 jobs, nearly half of November’s 71,321.
- Andy Challenger, the Chief Revenue Officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, wrote that “The year closed with the fewest announced layoff plans all year. While December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job-cutting plans.”
- The US Goods and Services Trade Balance revealed that the trade deficit narrowed from $48.1 billion to $29.4 billion in October, exceeding estimates of a widening of $-58.9 billion, on a sharp pullback in imports, notably pharmaceuticals.
- The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) revealed that households’ inflation expectations rose in the short term and remained unchanged for the medium term. Job finding expectations declined, while expectations of losing a job worsened.
- Inflation expectations increased in December to 3.4% from 3.2% for one year, and for three and five years were unchanged at 3%.
- Following the US data releases, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for the last quarter of 2025 rose from 2.7% to 5.4%.
- Gold falls as US Treasury yields rise. The US 10-year note yield rises nearly two and a half basis points to 4.173%. US real yields, which correlate inversely with Gold prices, climbed two basis points to 1.903%.
Technical analysis: Gold consolidates at around $4,450
Gold price uptrend is intact, but a daily close below Wednesday's daily low of $4,423 could accelerate a test of the $4,400 figure. Bullish momentum continues to fade as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains above its neutral line, but is flat.
For a bullish continuation, traders need to regain $4,500, which could clear the path to test the all-time high of $4,549. Above lies $4,600. If XAU/USD tumbles below $4,400, the first support would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,376. A breach of the latter will expose $4,300. On further weakness, Gold’s uptrend might be compromised if it drops below $4,274, the latest cycle low.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on a CNBC interview on Thursday that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue to cut rates.
Last year, the Fed embarked on a 75-basis-point rate cut run, though in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed could pause its easing cycle. So far, money markets have priced in two 25 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, which would leave the Fed funds rate near the 3 to 3.25%.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting will be on January 27-28, which shows a minimal chance for a rate cut. It should be noted that some Fed officials have stressed that the central bank might pause its easing cycle, adding that the rates are closer to its neutral rate level.
Bessent said that lowering rates is “the only ingredient missing for even stronger economic growth. Which is why the Fed should not delay.”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) posted decent gains, enough to maintain its optimism unchanged so far this year. Meanwhile, market participants remained cautious ahead of the release of the critical US labour market report at the end of the week.
Here’s what to watch on Friday, January 9:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) built on recent gains and surpassed its key 200-day SMA, flirting at the samet time with the 99.00 level, or multi-week tops. The Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage seconded in relevance by the flash U-Mich Consumer Sentiment print and speeches by the Fed’s Kashkari and Barkin.
EUR/USD further extended its bearish leg, this time putting its interim 55-day SMA near 1.1640 to the test. Balance of Trade and Industrial Production in Germany will wrap up the euro calendar along with Retail Sales in the broader Euroland and the speech by the ECB’s Lane.
GBP/USD remained well on the back foot, retreating for the third day in a row and revisiting the 1.3420-1.3415 band. Next on tap across the Channel will be the release of the BRC Retail Sales Monitor on January 13.
USD/JPY rose modestly, briefly surpassing the 157.00 barrier while extending its positive streak for the third day in a row. Household Spending data are due followed by the preliminary readings of the Coincident and Leading Economic indexes.
AUD/USD succumbed to the continuation of Wednesday’s selling pressure, easing to three-day lows and breaching below the 0.6700 support. Household Spending figures will be released in Oz on January 12.
Prices of the American benchmark WTI gave signs of life after two straight days of losses, clocking marked gains near the $58.00 mark per barrel as traders continued to closely follow developments around Venezuela’s oil.
Gold prices added to Wednesday’s retracement, hitting three-day troughs and challenging the $4,400 mark per troy ounce amid the firmer US Dollar, higher US Treasury yields and speculation surrounding the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing. Silver prices sold off, deflating to three-day lows after revisiting the $74.50 region per ounce.
- USD/CAD hovers near a one-month high as broad US Dollar strength keeps the Loonie on the back foot.
- A rebound in Oil prices limits upside in the pair, offering some support to the Canadian Dollar.
- Attention shifts to US Nonfarm Payrolls and Canada’s labour-market data due on Friday.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pressured by broad-based Greenback strength. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.3875, hovering near its highest level since December 5.
However, the pair lacks strong follow-through buying as a rebound in Oil prices lends some support to the Loonie, given Canada’s status as a major crude exporter. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $57.22, up nearly 1.78% after coming under pressure earlier this week amid market reaction to recent US military action in Venezuela and expanding US oversight of Venezuelan Oil exports.
The US Dollar extends its advance after data released earlier in the day showed Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 and up from the previous week’s revised reading of 200,000.
Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.914 million from 1.858 million, while the four-week moving average of Initial Claims eased to 211,750 from 219,000.
The main highlight came from trade data. Figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau showed the Goods and Services Trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion in October, well below forecasts of $58.9 billion and down from September’s revised $48.1 billion shortfall.
Traders now look ahead to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Economists forecast payrolls to rise by 60,000 in January, following a 64,000 increase in the prior month. A softer-than-expected reading would likely reinforce expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) easing, while a stronger print could temper rate-cut bets. Markets are currently pricing in around two Fed rate cuts this year.
In Canada, the economic calendar remains relatively light. Data released earlier showed Canada’s trade balance swung to a deficit of C$0.58 billion in October from a C$0.24 billion surplus in September, though the shortfall was smaller than market expectations for a C$1.4 billion deficit.
Attention now turns to Friday’s Canadian labour-market report. Net Change in Employment is forecast to show a modest decline of 5,000 jobs in December, following a strong 53,600 increase in November.
On the monetary policy front, markets widely expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates unchanged through much of 2026.
Bank of Canada FAQs
The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.
- The Australian Dollar weakens after softer Australian macroeconomic data for November.
- Australia’s trade surplus contracts sharply due to a notable decline in exports.
- Investors await US employment data for fresh clues on the US monetary policy outlook.
AUD/USD extends its pullback and trades around 0.6690 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, after posting a more-than-one-year high on the previous day. The pair corrects as the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under renewed pressure following disappointing economic data released in Australia.
The weakness in the Aussie is primarily driven by the narrowing of the trade surplus. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that the trade surplus shrank to 2.936 billion Australian dollars in November, from more than 4 billion in the previous month. This deterioration mainly reflects a 2.9% monthly decline in exports, following an increase in October, while imports edged slightly higher. These figures raise concerns about the contribution of external trade to Australia’s economic growth toward the end of the year.
Inflation data published earlier this week also weighed on the currency. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% YoY in November, below market expectations and easing from the previous month. Although inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, the slowdown adds to uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the figures were largely in line with expectations and reiterated that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the near term, while stressing that the central bank remains data-dependent.
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) finds some support from relatively firm economic indicators. Recent data on employment and services activity reinforce the view of a resilient US economy, limiting expectations of an imminent shift toward easier monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Against this backdrop, investors remain cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due on Friday, and widely seen as a key catalyst for near-term interest rate expectations.
The contrasting fundamentals between Australia and the United States (US), therefore, keep downside pressure on AUD/USD, with the pair remaining sensitive to any macroeconomic surprises that could influence the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.40% | 0.43% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.05% | -0.22% | -0.13% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | 0.05% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.17% | 0.07% | 0.36% | 0.36% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.13% | 0.08% | -0.07% | 0.28% | 0.30% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.40% | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.28% | 0.04% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.43% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.36% | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.11% | 0.17% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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