Forex News

TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.

Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook

"After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports."

"Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict."

"As input costs rise, we may see a slowdown in production which may be a drag on China’s exports growth in the near term."

"Industrial production is likely to hold steady in Mar but rising input costs could change the calculus for firms’ output plans soon."

"Retail sales may underwhelm as consumers brought forward their spending last month due to the CNY holidays and the early rollout of the consumer trade in prog subsidies.GDP should rise to 4.8% y/y in Q1 given strong exports and mfg over the qtr."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends. They argue recent KRW weakness stems mainly from foreign equity profit-taking, with attractive Korean equity valuations helping to stabilise the currency.

War risk and equities drive Won outlook

"KRW now trades below 1,500 level. The near-term move will depend heavily on the Middle East situation. Thus, we continue to keep our trading range of 1,450-1,550 for now."

"We agree with Governor Rhee’s view: if the war ends, then the KRW is expected to strengthen quite rapidly. The recent weak KRW was mostly driven by foreign investors’ net selling of equities – presumably profit taking rather than panic selling."

"The still appealing valuation levels in the Korean equity market are expected to help stabilise KRW."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, accelerating to 10.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in February. Electronics exports are seen outperforming on global AI demand, while non-electronics may rebound as Lunar New Year base effects fade, though petrochemicals likely face pressure from a Middle East-related naphtha supply crunch.

NODX growth led by electronics

"We expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to sustain growth for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, expanding by a faster pace of 10.3% yoy, compared with 4.0% yoy in February."

"The performance was likely supported by superior growth of electronics domestic exports relative to weaker non-electronics shipments, as electronics continued to be bolstered by global AI tailwinds."

"While non-electronics domestic exports may have rebounded as adverse base effects from the previous month’s Lunar New Year faded, segments such as petrochemicals were likely under pressure due to a naphtha feedstock supply crunch stemming from the Middle East conflict."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Risk mood improves as DXY hits four-week lows near 98.52.
• Weekend US-Iran talks seen as catalyst for AUD/USD above 0.7100.
• Upside capped below 0.7100; support seen at 0.7026, 0.6978.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is poised to end Friday’s session flat against the US Dollar (USD), even though an improvement in market mood drove the Greenback toward four-week lows near 98.52, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). Hopes that the US-Iran talks over the weekend could open the door for further discussions to lay a deal may push AUD/USD higher, past 0.7100, clearing key resistance at Thursday's high of 0.7094. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7070.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

On its way north, AUD/USD cleared April’s 1 high past 0.6962, but fell shy of cracking the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Finally, on Tuesday, buyers reclaimed 0.6978 —the 20-day SMA—and crushed 0.7000 as the pair was on its way toward weekly highs reached the next day.

Despite this, buyers ran out of steam and failed to overcome the 0.7100 figure, which is seen as the next key resistance level, before traders aim towards the March 11 year-to-date (YTD) high at 0.7187. On further strength, 0.7200 is up next.

On the downside, AUD/USD must drop below the 50-day SMA at 0.7026, so traders can remain hopeful of challenging 0.7000. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 20-day SMA at 0.6978, followed by the April 6 swing low of 0.6875.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that if Iran conflict is resolved quickly and Oil prices come back down, a rate cut may not be out of the question.

Key takeaways:

If Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, a rate cut is 'not out of the question'.

If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done.

We had work to do on inflation before the oil price shock; now, the work just takes longer.

I put a lower probability on a rate hike than on a cut or holding steady.

Persistently high oil prices would mean higher inflation but would also hurt growth.

We're already seeing higher prices show through to the economy with people pulling back on travel because they are worried about higher costs.

Extremely important to bring inflation to 2%, but doing that at the expense of jobs puts families behind the eight ball.

US economic fundamentals 'solid,' labor market in a steadier place.

Risks to fed's goals of full employment, inflation are balanced.

Need to see what happens with the conflict and how businesses are passing along price increases.

Seeing surcharges, which can be reversed, rather than price increases.

Policy is restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation, balanced enough to support a steady labor market.

Policy in a good place gives us more time to see how conflict resolves and what happens to oil prices.

High CPI reading will not be a surprise to anyone.

The real question is does the ceasefire persist, and if it does the CPI will be old news.”

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%. The bank warns that secondary shocks from the Iran war could later erode China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.

Resilient activity but external risks linger

"We expect China to report a Q1 GDP growth of 4.6% yoy."

"China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks to our 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment."

"We expect March industrial production to grow 5.5% as activity remains firm."

"Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious stance on the economic outlook for the remainder of 2026. The primary risk to China does not stem from direct inflation but rather from the secondary impacts of the Iran war."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)