Forex News
- EUR/USD picks up to the 1.1775 area but remains within previous ranges below 1.1800.
- The Euro faltered at Monday's opening after Trump dismissed Iran's peace plan.
- The recent jump in Oil prices is likely to keep Euro bulls in check.
The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the Dollar (USD), yet moving within previous ranges on Monday. The pair has returned to the upper side of the 1.1700s range, and is trading at 1.1775 at the time of writing after a negative opening, following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace plan.
Trump posted on social media that Tehran’s latest peace proposal was “totally unacceptable”, crushing market hopes of a swift end to the war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped after the news, with the barrel of Brent returning above $100, which puts the Eurozone’s Crude-importing economies under pressure and undermines the Euro’s upside attempts.
On the macroeconomic front, US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations on Friday, showing a 115K increase, almost twice the 62K expected. These figures strengthen the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and ease pressure on the bank to cut interest rates, which provides support to the Greenback.
The economic calendar is thin in the US and Europe on Monday. Later this week, US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, and US Retail Sales on Thursday, together with Fed speakers throughout the week, will provide the fundamental guidance for the USD. In Europe, Germany’s final consumer inflation data on Tuesday, but above all, Wednesday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech, will be the highlights of the week.
Technical Analysis: Bulls to be tested at 1.1800
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EUR/USD shows a modest bullish bias with momentum readings backing this constructive tone. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is near 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers retain control.
Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between 1.1790 and 1.1800 (around April 20, May 6, 8 highs), which, so far, is closing the path to April's high, in the 1.1850 area. Further up, February's top, at the 1.1930 area, would come into focus.
On the downside, session lows at the 1.1750 area and Friday's lows, near 1.1725, are likely to provide some support to a potential bearish reversal, although the key support is at the area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which contained downside attempts in April.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong says British Pound (GBP) has held up despite UK political noise, with local elections pointing to a more fragmented landscape and a medium-term political-risk premium. He sees GBP trading with a modest political-risk discount near term, but driven mainly by US Dollar (USD) direction and Bank of England (BoE) repricing, with technicals showing mixed signals and key resistance around 1.37.
Sterling balances politics and rate repricing
"UK local election results pointed to a more fragmented political landscape. Labour took heavy losses, Reform UK was the standout winner in English councils, the Conservatives also remained under pressure, while the Greens/Lib Dems picked up support in parts of the country. In Wales, Plaid Cymru’s win ended Labour’s long dominance, with Reform also performing strongly."
"For GBP, the immediate damage looks contained as there is no clear leadership or fiscal shock yet. But the results do add to the medium term political risk premium, especially if poor Labour showing revive concerns over fiscal slippage. In the interim, GBP is likely to trade with a modest political-risk discount, but the bigger drivers remain USD direction and BoE repricing."
"GBP traded better bid for the week. Last at 1.3630 levels. Weekly momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose slightly. Technical readings are mixed with momentum/oscillator indicating upside risk while chart pattern saw a potential hanging man formation, typically associated with bearish reversal."
"We continue to watch price action. Resistance at 1.37 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low). Support at 1.3540 (21 DMA), 1.3510 (50% fibo) and 1.3480. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that the proposal to the United States (US) was not “excessive”, and Washington continues to have “unreasonable demands”.
Iran's Baghaei added that Tehran only seeks to secure its rights and gave generous and responsible suggestions to the US.
These comments from Iran’s Baghaei seem a reply to US President Donald Trump’s social media post on Truth Social, which came over the weekend, in which he called the response from Iran’s so-called Representatives “totally unacceptable”.
According to Iranian state media, Iran's counterproposal stresses US compensation for war damages, the recognition of Tehran’s authority on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, CNN reported. Iran’s proposal also demands the release of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of sanctions.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene said during the European trading session on Monday that the central bank needs to wait to see how Middle East conflicts will flare before making any monetary policy adjustments.
Comments
It's worth waiting to see how the US-Iran war develops before deciding whether to hike interest rates.
Inflation risks are skewed entirely to the upside.
Sluggish economy and loose labour market should limit second-round effects from energy shock.
Market reaction
No immediate response appears on the British Pound (GBP) due to BoE's Greene. The reason might be that they lack any meaningful guidance on the monetary policy outlook. As of writing, GBP/USD is down 0.17% to near 1.3610 but has recovered a majority of its early losses.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- Gold attracts some sellers on Monday as renewed US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven USD.
- Rising Oil prices revive inflation concerns and bolster hawkish Fed bets, underpinning the buck.
- Bearish traders seem hesitant as the focus now shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest bounce from a three-day low, touched earlier this Monday, and maintains its offered tone below the $4,700 mark through the first half of the European session. Persistent geopolitical uncertainties turned out to be a key factor underpinning the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status. Adding to this, expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) offer additional support to the buck and contribute to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and the de-escalation of conflict faded quickly amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump and Iran both rejected each other’s peace proposals for ending the war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid major disagreements over Iran's nuclear program. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has rejected US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years. Trump quickly lashed out at the Iranian response, calling it "totally unacceptable." This keeps geopolitical risks in play and regains some positive traction on Monday, which, in turn, is seen exerting some pressure on the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the latest development triggers a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices and revives inflationary concerns. This, along with the upbeat US employment data released on Friday, backs the case for a more hawkish Fed going forward. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added more-than-expected 115K new jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3%. Moreover, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are currently pricing in just over a 20% chance that the US central bank would deliver at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, favors the USD bulls and backs the case for a further downfall for the non-yielding Gold.
Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of US monthly Retail Sales, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price. Meanwhile, the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before confirming that the recent rebound from the $4,500 psychological mark, or over a one-month low touched last week, has run out of steam.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bears look to seize control below 200-period SMA on H4
From a technical perspective, the precious metal holds a neutral tone following last week's repeated failures to make it through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May downfall. The subsequent slide below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), however, lacks follow-through. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the 50 line, hinting at modest positive bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading, suggesting that bullish momentum is not yet fully convincing.
In the meantime, the 50.0% retracement around $4,696 is likely to act as an immediate resistance, with further hurdles seen at the 61.8% level near $4,743 and then the 78.6% retracement around $4,810. A sustained break above these barriers would open the way toward the recent cycle high close to $4,894. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,675 offers immediate support ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $4,650, with deeper protection seen at the 23.6% level around $4,592 and the structural low region anchored near $4,498.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- Silver prices may climb toward the ascending channel's upper limit at $87.10.
- An RSI reading near 59 indicates healthy bullish momentum.
- The immediate support lies around the nine-day EMA at $77.34.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $80.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart timeframe shows that the white metal price is moving within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.
The white metal holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now underpin a constructive near-term bias, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below the overbought band around 59, suggesting positive but not yet overstretched momentum.
Silver price may rise toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $87.10. A break above the channel would support the metal price to test the three-month high of $96.62, reached on March 2. Further advance would expose the all-time high of $121.66, which was recorded on January 29.
On the downside, the silver price may find immediate support around the nine-day EMA at $77.34, followed by the 50-day EMA of 76.99. Further support lies at the lower ascending channel boundary around $74.50. A break below the channel would cause the bearish emergence around the five-month low of $61.01, which was recorded on March 23.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/JPY jumps to near 157.00 as higher oil prices raise concerns over Japan’s economic prospects.
- US President Trump dismisses Iran’s demands against the peace proposal.
- Investors await the US CPI data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.25% higher to near 157.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair trades firmly as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board amid growing concerns over Japan’s economic outlook due to higher oil prices.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.20% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.19% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.28% | -0.13% | 0.10% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.27% | -0.13% | 0.07% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.13% | 0.30% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.13% | -0.13% | 0.21% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.11% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The WTI Oil price has gained strongly above $96, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s demands after reviewing Washington’s peace proposal. Iran wants the recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to monetize the passage, compensation for war damages, and the release of frozen assets, according to CNN. However, there have been no comments regarding Tehran pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
A higher oil price is an unfavorable environment for the Japanese Yen, given Tokyo’s heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades higher as rising oil prices are expected to discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from easing monetary conditions this year. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Tuesday.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades higher at around 157.00 as of writing. The pair keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.02. The earlier rising support trend line, last anchored around 156.34, now sits just beneath the price and acts as the first structural floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 43 suggests only modest downside momentum after the latest pullback.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 158.02 is the immediate resistance that the pair would need to reclaim to ease current downside pressure and open the way to a more sustained recovery. On the downside, a clear break below the prior uptrend support around 156.34 would expose deeper losses and signal that sellers are regaining control of the broader daily structure. Major support areas would be the February 23 low at 154 and the February 12 low at 152.27.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
HSBC economists note that “risk-on” G10 currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD), have outperformed the US Dollar (USD) this quarter on improved risk sentiment linked to Middle East de-escalation hopes. They highlight the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) third consecutive 25bp hike to 4.35%, keeping it an outlier among G10 central banks, and expects a wait-and-see stance unless further domestic fiscal support prompts additional tightening.
Australian Dollar benefits from RBA stance
"So far this quarter, “risk-on” G10 currencies, such as the AUD, NOK, and NZD have outperformed against the USD, helped by renewed optimism around a potential de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East."
"In addition to the broader shift in risk appetite, both the AUD and NOK appear to have benefited from domestic policy developments."
"On 5 May, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a third consecutive 25bp rate hike, taking the policy rate to 4.35%, in line with market expectations."
"This keeps the RBA an outlier among G10 central banks."
"Our economists expect the RBA to remain on hold in a “wait-and-see” mode; however, further domestic fiscal support could increase the likelihood of additional tightening."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/JPY turns positive for the third straight day following a bearish gap amid a weaker JPY.
- Economic risks due to Iran tensions undermine the JPY, albeit intervention fears limit losses.
- The mixed technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for additional gains.
The EUR/JPY cross attracts fresh buyers following a bearish gap opening around the 183.80 region on Monday and extends the steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session. Spot prices climb back closer to last week's swing high in the last hour, with bulls looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 185.00 psychological mark amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).
The JPY underperformance comes amid economic risks stemming from renewed US-Iran tensions and the continued disruption to energy supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency, along with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish outlook, might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. This, in turn, might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the EUR/JPY cross amid a mixed technical setup.
The recent breakdown below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders, albeit the subsequent fall stalled near the 182.00 round figure. The EUR/JPY cross has recovered from recent lows, and short-term momentum is constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 62 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding in positive territory, yet the inability to reclaim the 200-period SMA suggests rallies remain vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA at 185.40 defined the initial resistance, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to higher highs. On the downside, the absence of nearby mapped supports leaves the focus on intraday swing lows as the next reference points, with any rejection from 185.40 likely to trigger fresh selling pressure back toward the recent swing low, around the 182.00 round figure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.24% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.13% | 0.08% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.26% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.12% | 0.19% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.26% | -0.19% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.11% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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