Forex News
- WTI price jumps to near $86.70 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The sudden re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz boost the WTI price.
- Iran's military warns of imminent retaliation after US naval seizure.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $86.70 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price rises on renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which will be published later on Tuesday.
Iran's military said that the United States (US) violated the ceasefire by firing at one of Iran's commercial ships, per Bloomberg. Iran stated that it will soon respond and retaliate against this maritime and armed robbery by the US military.
On Sunday, Iran denied it would participate in new peace talks with the US, hours after US President Donald Trump said its negotiators would head to Pakistan on Monday for a second round of peace talks with Iran. Fears of supply disruption could boost the WTI price in the near term.
Traders brace for the release of the API report later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might weigh on the WTI price.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD fills a modest bearish gap opening on Monday, though it lacks follow-through.
- Renewed US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven USD and offer support to spot prices.
- Rallying Oil prices underpin the Loonie and cap any meaningful appreciation for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers following a modest bearish gap opening on Monday and retakes the 1.3700 mark during the Asian session. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a five day losing streak to levels just below mid-1.3600s, or the lowest since March 13, touched on Friday, though any meaningful upside seems elusive amid mixed cues.
Renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz trigger a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and assist the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) in building on Friday's goodish rebound from a nearly two-month low. This turns out to be a key factor supporting the USD/CAD pair, though rallying Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and could act as a headwind.
Iran said that it is closing the Strait of Hormuz again for commercial vessels and that any ship that approaches it will be targeted. This comes amid an escalation of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which Iran views as a breach of the ceasefire and cites as a key reason for calling off the second round of peace talks. The developments fuel global supply concerns and boost crude oil prices.
Furthermore, the USD struggles to capitalize on its early strength and retreats slightly from a one-week top amid diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This might contribute to capping gains for the USD/CAD pair, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out and placing aggressive bullish bets.
(This story was corrected on April 20 at 02:30 GMT to say, in the title that the Canadian Dollar retreats from over one-month high vs USD, not one-month low.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.08% | 0.09% | -0.04% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.01% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- NZD/USD trims losses after New Zealand posted NZD 698 million March Trade Surplus.
- The People’s Bank of China left one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
- US Dollar gained as markets priced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance amid persistent inflation and Middle East tensions.
NZD/USD pares its daily losses, trading around 0.5880 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair pares its daily losses following the release of New Zealand’s trade balance data, which showed a surplus of NZD 698 million month-over-month (MoM) in March, swinging from a deficit of NZD 365 million in February.
Moreover, the annual trade deficit was NZD 3.2 billion in March, against the NZD 3.1 billion in the previous month. Exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to a record high of NZD 7.94 billion in March 2026. Meanwhile, Imports increased 9.6% to NZD 7.25 billion.
In New Zealand’s close trading partner, China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
The NZD/USD pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) draws support from heightened safe-haven demand amid re-escalating United States (US)–Iran tensions. Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported that Tehran has refused to resume talks with US officials, citing “unrealistic expectations,” among other concerns.
Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz blocked since the US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Although authorities briefly signaled a reopening on Friday, they reversed the decision on Saturday after US President Donald Trump declined to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
US President Trump confirmed on Truth Social that US representatives will travel to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran on Monday. However, he also criticized Tehran’s move to re-close the Strait and reiterated threats to target Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance NZD (YoY)
Trade balance, released by Statistics New Zealand, is the difference between the value of country's exports and imports, over a period of year. A positive balance means that exports exceed imports, a negative ones means the opposite. Positive trade balance illustrates high competitiveness of country's economy.
Read more.Last release: Sun Apr 19, 2026 22:45
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: $-3.1B
Consensus: -
Previous: $-3B
Source: Stats NZ
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8648 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.8622 and 6.8291 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- GBP/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as renewed US-Iran tensions boost the USD.
- Rallying Oil prices revive inflation fears and lift US bond yield, further benefiting the Greenback.
- The divergent Fed-BoE policy expectations support the GBP and help limit losses for spot prices.
The GBP/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week and moves further away from a two-month high, around the 1.3600 mark, touched on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips from a one-week low set during the early Asian session and currently trade just below the 1.3500 psychological mark, still down over 0.15% for the day.
The global risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse amid renewed US-Iran tensions over the Straight of Hormuz, which, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and exerts pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Iran closed the strategic waterway after briefly opening it over the weekend. This comes on top of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and tempers hopes for more peace talks before the end of the current ceasefire on April 21.
In fact, Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported on Sunday that Iran would not participate in the second round of talks with the US. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump warned that he would knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran if Tehran did not agree to Washington’s terms to end the conflict. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and benefits the USD's global reserve currency status.
Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and revive inflationary concerns. This pushes US bond yields higher and further supports the buck. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant on the back of diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a significant divergence in comparison to bets on a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE), which acts as a tailwind for the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/USD weakens as USD gains on safe-haven demand amid renewed US–Iran tensions.
- IRNA says Tehran refuses renewed US talks, citing “unrealistic expectations” and other concerns.
- US Dollar strengthened as markets priced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance amid persistent inflation and Middle East tensions.
EUR/USD edges higher after opening at a gap down, still remaining in the negative territory and trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) draws support from heightened safe-haven demand amid re-escalating United States (US)–Iran tensions.
Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported that Tehran has refused to resume talks with US officials, citing “unrealistic expectations,” among other concerns.
Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz blocked since the US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Although authorities briefly signaled a reopening on Friday, they reversed the decision on Saturday after US President Donald Trump declined to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
US President Trump confirmed on Truth Social that US representatives will travel to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran on Monday. However, he also criticized Tehran’s move to re-close the Strait and reiterated threats to target Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges.
The US Dollar strengthens as markets price in a Federal Reserve (Fed) “higher-for-longer” stance, driven by persistent inflation and Middle East tensions. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s US Retail Sales data, expected to rise 1.3% MoM in March after 0.6% in February.
The Euro (EUR) found support as traders increased bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise interest rates this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged last week that elevated energy costs are pushing the Eurozone away from its baseline growth path, but stopped short of signaling imminent rate hikes.
The renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has dampened optimism over normalized energy supply from key Middle East producers, fueling concerns about stagflation in the Eurozone.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
Market reaction to the PBoC interest rate decision
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading 0.25% lower on the day to trade at 0.7151.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Iran's military said that United States (US) violated the ceasefire by firing at one of Iran's commercial ships, and the country will soon respond and retaliate against this maritime and armed robbery by the US military.
Key quotes
United States violated ceasefire by firing at one of Iran's commercial ships.
Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this maritime and armed robbery by US military.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 4.75% on the day at $87.90.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY gains ground around 159.10 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Iran stated that there are no plans for Tehran’s negotiators to attend the talks.
- Japanese authorities are on high alert for foreign exchange intervention.
The USD/JPY pair holds positive ground near 159.10 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran during more than seven weeks of war in the Middle East.
Iran denied it would participate in new peace talks with the US, hours after US President Donald Trump said its negotiators would head to Pakistan on Monday for a second round of peace talks with Iran, per Bloomberg.
Trump said the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, while Tehran warned that ships approaching the strait would be treated as violating a ceasefire. Several vessels were forced to abandon crossings only hours after Tehran had said the waterway was open. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran could provide some support to the Greenback against the JPY in the near term.
On the other hand, verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might help limit the JPY’s losses. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week that she’s held close discussions on foreign exchange issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and that authorities are prepared for “bold” action if needed.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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