Forex News
United States (US) President Donald Trump gave a press conference at his residence in Mar-a-Lago. Trump confirmed the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife: “Maduro and his wife both will face US justice,” Trump said, adding the US will be running Venezuela until they can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.
Key takeaways:
- Air, land, and sea were used in the Venezuela operation.
- This was one of the most stunning, effective, and powerful displays of US military might and competency.
- All Venezuelan military capacity was rendered powerless.
- The lights of Caracas were turned off due to a certain expertise we have.
- Maduro and wife both face US justice.
- Maduro and his wife are on a ship right now that will head to New York.
- They were waiting for us; they knew we were coming.
- We're going to run Venezuela until we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.
- Going to have our large US oil companies go into Venezuela.
- We're ready to stage a second attack if we need to do so.
- We assumed a second wave was necessary, but now probably not.
- Maduro will not threaten US or Venezuelan citizens anymore.
- They took all our property, we built it, costing us billions and billions of dollars.
- We built the Venezuelan oil industry with American talent, and they stole it through force.
- Embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full effect.
- US retains all military operations until the US demands have been fully met.
- Previous administrations have neglected or contributed to these growing security threats in the Western Hemisphere.
As it happened
US President Donald Trump fulfilled his threats and finally struck Venezuela. Different media reports that explosions in Caracas began around 1:50 am local time on Saturday, leaving multiple areas of the city without power.
As the day unfolded, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez stated the government was unaware of President Maduro and his wife's location. Finally, US President Trump confirmed the attack on the country and shared on social media:
The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP."
US Attorney indicts President Maduro and his wife
US Attorney General Pamela Jo Bondi has just announced that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted in the Southern District of New York, through her X account:
Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted in the Southern District of New York. Nicolas Maduro has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States. They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts. On behalf of the entire U.S. DOJ, I would like to thank President Trump for having the courage to demand accountability on behalf of the American People, and a huge thank you to our brave military who conducted the incredible and highly successful mission to capture these two alleged international narco traffickers."
Venezuelan official statement
The Venezuelan government has released an official statement about the ongoing conflict with the US. The following is an extract of the most relevant parts of it:
"The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela rejects, repudiates, and denounces before the international community the grave military aggression perpetrated by the current government of the United States of America against Venezuelan territory and its population in the civilian and military areas of Caracas, the capital of the Republic, and the states of Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira. This act constitutes a flagrant violation of the Charter of the United Nations, especially Articles 1 and 2, which enshrine respect for sovereignty, the legal equality of states, and the prohibition of the use of force. Such aggression threatens international peace and stability, specifically in Latin America and the Caribbean, and places the lives of millions of people at grave risk."
"The objective of this attack is none other than to seize Venezuela's strategic resources, particularly its oil and minerals, attempting to break the nation's political independence forcibly. They will not succeed."
"President Nicolás Maduro has ordered all national defense plans to be implemented at the appropriate time and under the appropriate circumstances, in strict adherence to the provisions of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the Organic Law on States of Emergency, and the Organic Law on National Security."
"In strict adherence to Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, Venezuela reserves the right to exercise legitimate self-defense to protect its people, its territory, and its independence. We call upon the peoples and governments of Latin America, the Caribbean, and the world to mobilize in active solidarity against this imperialist aggression."
"As Supreme Commander Hugo Chávez Frías stated, “In the face of any new difficulties, however great they may be, the response of all patriots…is unity, struggle, battle, and victory.”
Caracas, January 3, 2025
Meanwhile, Diosdado Cabello, the number two of the regime in Venezuela, appeared publicly and called for calm among the population and assured that the US “will not defeat” the Venezuelan people, despite the military operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
Additionally, Reuters reported that the Venezuelan Vice President Delsy Rodriguez is currently in Moscow. According to the news agency, Rodriguez left the country before the US strike. Russian authorities, however, denied the headline.
- Stocks start 2026 flat as chip gains offset tech weakness after a strong, record-setting 2025.
- Tariff delays lift furniture stocks while strategists see broad-market leadership jitters.
- Fed leadership uncertainty and Buffett’s Berkshire handoff add to key investor watch points.
US equities opened 2026 on a cautious note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq essentially flat as strength in semiconductors offset weakness elsewhere in technology. The Dow Jones found some footing on Friday after an early plunge through the overnight session, holding steady near where the first trading day of 2026 started.
Looking ahead, Wall Street strategists remain broadly bullish on US equities through 2026. The latest CNBC strategist survey points to an average S&P 500 target of 7,629, implying double-digit upside for the year. Some strategists expect market leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap technology, with rotation into regional banks and other non-tech sectors, while select richly valued tech names could lag.
Semiconductors steady markets after 2025 tech splurge
Chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU) advanced, extending momentum from a powerful 2025 driven by artificial intelligence spending, while software names including Salesforce (CRM) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) declined. Tesla (TSLA) also weighed on sentiment after reporting fourth-quarter deliveries well below expectations. Despite the subdued start to the year, 2025 closed with strong gains across major benchmarks, as the S&P 500 rose more than 16%, the Nasdaq climbed over 20%, and the Dow added roughly 13%, all reaching record highs through the year.
Tariff pause sparks relief rally in furniture stocks
Outside of technology, furniture and home goods stocks stood out after US President Donald Trump delayed planned tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for one year. Wayfair (W), RH, and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) all rallied as investors reassessed cost pressures tied to trade policy. The tariff pause follows a sharp divergence within the sector in 2025, when value-oriented retailers surged while higher-end brands struggled amid sourcing concerns and volatile demand.
On the economic front, US manufacturing activity cooled modestly in December as new orders slowed, according to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results. December’s Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory, while job creation accelerated to its fastest pace since August and price pressures eased, suggesting a mixed but otherwise stable backdrop for growth.
Fed and corporate leadership transitions loom large over 2026
Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership is emerging as a key uncertainty for markets this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has declined to say whether he will remain on the Fed’s board when his term as chair ends in May, fueling debate about the future balance of power within the central bank. If Powell steps down entirely, President Trump would gain immediate influence over a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), potentially reshaping monetary policy direction. Most Fed observers expect Powell to leave, citing institutional precedent and concerns about politicizing the central bank, though the decision remains unresolved and closely watched.
In corporate leadership news, Warren Buffett formally handed the CEO role at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) to Greg Abel, ending a six-decade tenure that transformed the company into a trillion-dollar conglomerate. Buffett expressed strong confidence in Abel’s leadership and capital allocation skills, even as Berkshire shares have lagged since the succession announcement amid investor questions about the post-Buffett era. Buffett emphasized the company’s long-term durability, underscoring Berkshire’s deep cash reserves and diversified business mix as it enters a new chapter.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Financial markets extend the holiday mood on the first trading day of the new year. Markets continue playing the waiting game for a data-driven next week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 98.40 price region on Friday, trimming a big chunk of its New Year losses.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.18% | -0.28% | -0.36% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.15% | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.17% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.09% | -0.25% | -0.27% | -0.39% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | 0.11% | -0.09% | 0.15% | 0.25% | -0.04% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.15% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.36% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.39% | 0.12% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around the $4,320 level, losing all of its intraday gains after the New Year's break. Market expectations of lower interest rates in the United States (US) and rising geopolitical tensions have underpinned precious metals over the last few sessions.
EUR/USD hovers around 1.1740 after edging lower in the first half of the week. The pair remains under pressure as it awaits the upcoming data.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3480 price region, little changed in the first American session of the year.
USD/JPY is trading near the 156.50 price region, in negative territory, with little intraday change.
AUD/USD is trading close to the 0.6690 area, posting a small advance after trimming almost half of its intraday gains on Friday.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Key economic data: Upcoming releases to shape market sentiment
Over the coming days, investors will focus on US employment data and global inflation figures, as they inform central banks’ decisions.
The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December on Monday.
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday.
The US ADP Employment Change report (December) and the ISM Services PMI (December) will be released on Wednesday, along with the Eurozone HICP (December preliminary).
The US Trade Balance (October) and Consumer Credit (November) will be released next Thursday.
Finally, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December and the preliminary estimate of the January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on January 9.
- The Canadian Dollar held within near-term ranges, but softened to open the 2026 trading window.
- Market sentiment is tilted slightly toward bullish heading into the new year, but momentum remains limited.
- PMI survey results played second-fiddle on Friday as traders await next week’s labor data.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) hit a bit of a soft patch on Friday, kicking off the first trading day of 2026 on the back foot. The Loonie is one of the worst performers for the day, shedding weight against all but one of its major currency peers. Despite a steady note of overall weakness to open up the new trading year, the Canadian Dollar is still within near-term ranges as overall market momentum remains tepid coming out of the holiday window.
Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures showed more of the same in December, with overall activity and output falling for an eleventh straight month. Tariffs remain the key thorn in Canadian business activity, with firms opting for lean operations and inventory management, keeping purchasing activity subdued. Tariffs remain the key pink elephant paradox for Canadian businesses, with apprehension keeping supply lines jittery and self-creating some inflationary pressures on input costs.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar eases slightly after PMIs confirm the usual
The Canadian Dollar lost a little over one-tenth of one percent against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.
- The new trading year is now here, but overall market narratives remain largely the same.
- According to the latest Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Canada’s manufacturing sector ended the year weakly, with falling output and orders, persistent tariff uncertainty weighing on confidence, firms cutting labor, inventories, and purchases, and rising input costs driven by ongoing supply chain delays and tariffs.
- The US Manufacturing PMI component also released on Friday, showing that tariff impacts continue to hit on both sides of the 49th parallel.
- US manufacturers boosted production in December, supporting late-2025 growth. However, with orders falling at the widest gap since the financial crisis, tariff-driven cost pressures squeezing demand, and payroll risks rising, current output levels look unsustainable heading into early 2026 despite some easing in input inflation.
- The first meaningful data dump that will kick off the USD/CAD trading year in earnest will be next week’s dual labor reports, with both the US and Canada slated to release their latest employment statistics on December 9.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
In the 5-minute chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3740, above the day's opening price by around 20 pips and up for the day. The 200-period EMA edges higher at 1.3725, with price holding above it and keeping the intraday bullish tone. Pullbacks are supported while spot stays over this average. RSI at 59.77 (neutral-bullish) is rising, aligning with improving short-term momentum. Stochastic near 68.61 continues to advance, leaving room before overbought.
Momentum remains supportive as buyers defend the rising average. A drop back under the 200-EMA would undermine the upmove and could trigger a deeper pullback. With RSI shy of the 70 threshold and Stochastic not yet in the 80 band, bulls could attempt to extend gains, though upside would slow if momentum stalls.
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3741. The pair remains below the falling 50-day EMA at 1.3849 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3891, keeping a bearish tone. The short-term average below the long-term one reinforces downside pressure. RSI at 40.9 (neutral) has bounced from oversold but stays under the 50 midline.
Stochastic at 42.7 has turned higher, backing scope for a corrective move. A recovery could stall at the 50-day EMA at 1.3849, while sustained weakness beneath the current level would leave risk of fresh lows. A decisive push through the short-term average would open the path toward the longer-term one; otherwise, sellers remain in control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
USD/CAD 5-minute chart
The US jobs report will be the main economic release next week, with other US data including the ISM indices and consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, the focus will be on inflation in Europe and China, whilst wage data is due in Japan, Deutsche Bank's economists report.
Europe and China inflation in focus
"In the US, the key event will be the December jobs report due Friday. Our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by +50k (+64k in November), with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 4.5% (4.6%), and the hourly earnings growth rising to +0.3% MoM (+0.1%). The ADP and JOLTS reports are also scheduled for Wednesday. Meanwhile, there are the ISM indices and our economics team forecast readings of 48.8 and 52.1, respectively. Other notable releases will be the University of Michigan’s consumer survey on Friday (DB forecast a 54.0 print, up from 52.9 in December) and Q3 unit labour costs on Thursday."
"Moving on to Europe, the focus will be on the preliminary December CPIs in the Eurozone. Readings for Germany and France are due Tuesday, with a Eurozone-wide report due Wednesday. Outside of the bloc, consumer inflation prints are also due in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. In Germany, other notable economic releases include factory orders on Thursday and industrial production and trade balance on Friday."
"Rounding out with the economic calendar for Asia, highlights include CPI and PPI reports in China on Friday as well as wages in Japan on Wednesday."
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