Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong flag slight upside risks for USD/SGD as the Hormuz standoff weighs on risk appetite and imported cost pressures. While Singapore Dollar (SGD) remains a regional defensive currency, they note fading bearish momentum and rising RSI on USD/SGD, alongside expectations that Singapore inflation will accelerate toward 2% as energy-related costs from the Middle East conflict pass through supply chains.
Defensive SGD faces inflation pressures
"Slight upward risk. USD/SGD inched higher overnight tracking the broad USD rebound."
"Pair was last at 1.2780 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose."
"Risks somewhat skewed to the upside for now. Resistance here at 1.2790/1.28 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo)."
"Support at 1.2750/60 levels (50 DMA, 50% fibo), 1.2670 (76.4% fibo). On relative terms, SGD can continue to trade like a regional defensive play, holding up better against higher-beta FX."
"Looking ahead our economists see the prolonged US-Iran war and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to trigger energy and petrochemical-related costs for businesses which could add to the inflationary pass-through into 2Q26 and potentially beyond."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank highlights that BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, signalling the start of a new tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations. Despite a hawkish tone and higher inflation forecasts, the Peso underperforming regional peers since the Iran war as the Philippines remains highly exposed to Middle East energy prices.
Rate hike fails to lift weak currency
"The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%. The market consensus was split 50-50 on a rate hike in a Bloomberg poll. It was BSP's first rate hike since September 2023. The decision was aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and containing second-order inflationary effects. Historically, BSP has had a low tolerance for inflationary pressures. It tightened policy in 2018 and 2022 as headline CPI rose above BSP’s inflation target range of 2-4%. Headline CPI climbed to 4.1% yoy in March 2026."
"BSP Governor Remolona emphasized the central bank’s focus on price stability and revealed that 50bp hike was considered. He stated that this is the start of a new rate hike cycle. Governor Remolona noted that “Once we start raising the policy rate, we’re likely to do it again”. BSP downplayed the possible drag on growth from higher policy rates, suggesting that the current monetary policy stance “will still accommodate economic recovery over the medium term”."
"On growth, BSP lowered its full-year projection to 4.3% from 4.6% previously, below the government’s target range of 5-6%. BSP stated that they are confident that fiscal policy is sufficient to support growth. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside amid supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Support from fiscal policies will be limited by slower public spending disbursements and weaker economic sentiment following several large-scale graft allegations concerning several politicians."
"Price pressures are expected to be more widespread in the coming months primarily through the transport costs and fertilizer price channels. As such, higher global commodity prices could spill over to goods and services in the core CPI basket, raising the risk of second-order impacts. BSP is also monitoring inflation expectations to ensure that the supply-side inflationary pressures do not distort wage-setting dynamics, keeping supply-side price pressures sticky."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe a technical rebound in USD/TWD driven by broader US Dollar (USD) strength and risk aversion linked to the US‑Iran ceasefire stalemate. While near-term upside risks persist, they still prefer fading rallies, citing strong foreign inflows into Taiwanese equities, high correlation with the tech cycle, and robust AI-led export momentum as supportive for the Taiwan Dollar (TWD).
Short-term squeeze versus tech support
"Technical rebound fade. USDTWD rebounded, tracking the broad uptick in USD as risk sentiment was restraint."
"The squeeze higher in USDTWD was consistent with our technical caution for falling wedge – typically associated with a near term bullish reversal. Pair was last at 31.57 levels."
"Near term rebound risks remain. Resistance at 31.60 (100 DMA), 31.75 levels (21, 50 DMAs). Support at 31.40/45, 31.20 (2026 low) before 30.90 (200 DMA)."
"We still favour fading rallies. Earlier we had indicated that there are signs that TWD is recoupling with tech cycle again (TWD-TWSE 30-day rolling correlation >0.90)."
"So, when geopolitical de-escalation gets underway again and USD softness returns, then there is a good chance TWD can see gains catch up, riding on foreign inflows and strong AI-led export momentum."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research economist Samuel Tse analyses recent steepening in Chinese Yuan (CNY) rates, linking it to a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran and stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in China. He highlights resilient Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), firm industrial and external activity, robust onshore bond demand and continued offshore inflows, arguing this backdrop supports a stable front end and an accommodative but measured People's Bank of China (PBoC) stance.
Steepening curve on solid macro backdrop
"The CNY curve has steepened in the past week, driven by a ceasefire between the US and Iran and a stronger-than-expected macro starting point in Q1. China’s economy grew 5% YoY in Q1, supported by resilient external demand and a continued rebound in industrial activity."
"First, we expect PMI to remain resilient 50.3 in April, supported by improving high-frequency indicators. Industrial activity continues to pick up, with cement clinker and electric furnace utilisation rising by 2.4ppt and 1.0ppt, respectively, alongside higher operating rates at major steel mills. Importantly, the impact of the oil shock remains largely contained within energy-related sectors."
"Operating rates at petroleum asphalt plants have declined, while PTA load rates fell from 89.4% in March to 75.7% in April mtd. However, broader industrial activity has yet to show meaningful spillover, suggesting limited transmission beyond oil-linked industries at this stage."
"In addition, onshore bond demand remains robust. Northbound Bond Connect turnover reached a record CNY1.22tn in March, with average daily volumes rising to CNY55.6bn, both all-time highs. EPFR data show China bond funds recorded USD1.6bn of inflows in the first week of April, pointing to continued offshore demand."
"Taken together, growth momentum remains stable but uneven, reinforcing expectations of a measured policy stance. The PBOC is likely to maintain an accommodative bias via liquidity operations, while refraining from aggressive rate cuts."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF fails at 100-day SMA, signaling resistance remains intact.
- RSI turns lower, confirming growing bearish momentum pressure.
- Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.
USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.
Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7863 open the door to further downside.
If market mood remains optimistic, the USD/CHF could test lower levels, with the first area of interest at 0.7800. On further weakness, April 17 low of 0.7775 ─the last cycle low─, would be the next key support ahead of clearing the path towards the March 10 daily log of 0.7748, ahead of February’s 27 daily low of 0.7672.
On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the 100-day SMA, the next line of resistance would be the 0.7900 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 0.7936 ahead of 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | -0.35% | 0.35% | -0.14% | -0.38% | -0.34% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | -0.51% | 0.00% | -0.27% | -0.52% | -0.56% | 0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.35% | 0.51% | 2.17% | 0.26% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.79% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | 0.00% | -2.17% | -0.51% | -0.67% | -0.71% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.27% | -0.26% | 0.51% | -0.13% | -0.21% | 0.55% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.52% | -0.02% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.79% | |
| NZD | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.02% | 0.71% | 0.21% | -0.02% | 0.77% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | -0.28% | -0.79% | -0.04% | -0.55% | -0.79% | -0.77% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength. While upside risks have increased, MUFG also flags growing signs of Rupiah undervaluation and potential constraints from Bank Indonesia’s policy response.
Domestic confidence shock drives USD/IDR
"USD/IDR has reached fresh all-time highs around 17,300 level. This overshoots our prior near-term stabilisation view around 17,000. This move appears less about global USD strength and more about a domestic confidence shock, with markets likely reacting to heightened fiscal uncertainty."
"In the near term, upside risks to USD/IDR have clearly widened, with sentiment still fragile. The speed and direction of the latest move suggest markets are demanding a higher risk premium, particularly as oil prices remain elevated and fiscal-energy dynamics stay unfavourable."
"However, at the same time, valuation signals are becoming increasingly compelling, pointing to meaningful rupiah undervaluation versus the US dollar, while technical indicators show USD/IDR moving into overbought territory. Policy response functions could become more binding, with Bank Indonesia firmly focused on rupiah stability. Indonesia’s sovereign CDS spreads have not shown the kind of blowout typically associated with a loss of macro anchor."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver trades near the confluence of 20- and 100-day SMAs around $75.60.
- RSI remains bearish, suggesting downside risks despite recent rebound.
- Break below $75 exposes $72.61 and $69.82 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price edges up over 0.50% during Friday’s session, after bouncing off a daily low of $73.95. Speculation about a resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is cheered by investors, which pushed US equities higher in tandem with the precious metals segment. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $75.83,
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Technically, Silver is poised to consolidate within the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both at $75.64. Worth noting that since bottoming at around $61.02 on March 23, the white metal continued to record higher lows, an indication that the uptrend might continue.
However, the latest uptrend impulse peaked at around $83.05, with sellers outweighing buyers, pushing prices towards $75.00.
From a momentum standpoint, further losses are expected as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish.
For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear the $75.00 mark, followed by the April 13 daily low of $72.61. On further weakness, the next stop would be the April 7 daily log of $69.82.
On the flip side, buyers must reclaim the 100-day SMA, immediately followed by the 50-day SMA at $78.57. Above this confluence, the next resistance is the $80.00 psychological figure.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the central bank of Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) 25bp hike to 4.5% and guidance that further increases are possible as inflation forecasts are revised higher and second-round effects emerge. While this reduces the risk of BSP falling behind the curve and is relatively supportive for Philippine Peso (PHP), the Peso remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks and uncertain US‑Iran ceasefire dynamics.
Higher rates versus energy vulnerability
"More hikes not ruled out. BSP hiked policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% at its last MPC meeting (23 Apr). The Board now sees a greater risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored, with higher oil and fertiliser prices already feeding into domestic fuel and food costs and core inflation still edging higher."
"Governor Remolona said “once we start raising the policy rate, we’re likely to raise it again,” and also noted that a 50bp move was discussed. This suggests BSP is no longer just reacting to an external price shock but is becoming more concerned about broader second-round effects. Nonetheless, the 25bp hike was still framed as measured, with the Board judging that it will “still accommodate economic recovery over the medium term”."
"For PHP, the message is supportive on a relative basis because it reduces the risk that BSP falls behind the curve. But the FX follow-through may still be tempered by the Philippines’ vulnerability to imported energy shocks and the broader risk backdrop."
"Until we get some clarity on the ceasefire agreement, PHP may have to bear the brunt of the hit."
"Risks somewhat skewed to the upside. Resistance at 60.83 (previous all-time high). Support at 60.15 (21 DMA), 60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities strategists, including Andrew Kelvin and colleagues, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through the April meeting and likely for the rest of 2026. They see the Bank striking a more balanced but still cautious tone, emphasizing two-sided growth risks from higher Oil prices and USMCA renegotiation while looking through near-term inflation spikes.
BoC seen on extended hold with neutral tone
"We look for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% as the policy statement strikes another cautious tone. Higher energy prices will drive a sharp upgrade to the Bank's inflation forecast in the April MPR, with more modest revisions to core inflation and GDP. Crucially, we look for the Bank to note "two-sided" risks to growth from higher oil prices, and maintain its pledge to look through near-term inflation impacts."
"Putting everything together, we believe the Bank will be able to strike a more balanced tone now that near-term recession fears have subsided. The Bank should acknowledge that growth is picking up, but material slack still remains and we expect the communique to pay special attention to the risks associated the ongoing USMCA renegotiation. Critically, we look for the Bank to describe the growth risks associated with the Hormuz Strait closure as two-sided."
"We still expect the BoC to stay on hold for the rest of 2026, especially given downside surprise on recent CPI. The recent moves higher in rates, particularly in BoC pricing further out, should be seen more as a function of importing the pricing out of Fed rate cuts rather than an accurate reflection in a change of outlook. December is currently priced in at 2.61%, and a return to pre-war levels will likely be slower rather than traded off a single dovish data point or communication."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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