Forex News
- USD/IDR declines as the US Dollar weakens ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
- Strong US inflation data drives a 92.4% market expectation for a Fed rate hike.
- Domestic economic weakness and rising global risks could pressure IDR against USD.
USD/IDR halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 17,740 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the Greenback may rebound as hotter-than-expected, released last week, US inflation data that solidified expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Financial markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, which would lift the benchmark overnight rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Data from the CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are pricing in nearly a 92.4% probability of this quarter-point increase, alongside expectations that the Fed will signal additional rate hikes ahead.
The USD/IDR pair may regain ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces mounting pressure from both domestic and international headwinds. On the home front, Indonesia's recovery is slowed by persistent weakness in August factory activity, fragile consumer sentiment, and decelerating retail sales growth. Compounding these internal challenges are heightened external risks, including surging global crude oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, elevated international bond yields, and cautious foreign investors pulling back from Indonesian assets.
Indonesia reshuffle sees third finance minister in under two years
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight the latest bout of policy uncertainty in Indonesia, noting that President Prabowo Subianto “abruptly dismissed Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa yesterday after around one year in office.” They add that Deputy Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara has been elevated to the top job, “making him Indonesia’s third finance minister in less than two years,” a rapid turnover that underscores lingering questions over the stability and continuity of fiscal policymaking.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1545 ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
- The Fed is almost certain to hike interest rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%-4.00% range.
- Market experts see the Fed delivering one more interest rate hike this year.
The Euro (EUR) trades with caution at around 1.1545 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce the monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT.
The Fed is widely anticipated to break its five-meeting hold streak and hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 3.75%-4.00% range, as latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflationary pressures are sticky and well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Investors will pay close attention to Fed’s monetary policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the US interest rate outlook.
Ahead of the Fed meeting, financial markets have started pricing in at least one more interest rate hike this year.
ABN Amro frames hike as inflation insurance, not the start of a long cycle
Analysts at ABN Amro stress that, in their view, the rationale for another move is primarily precautionary rather than aggressively disinflationary. They argue that “the case for a hike is therefore less about bringing inflation down directly and more about preventing inflation from becoming more persistent.” Reflecting this risk-management stance, the bank says it has “pencilled in a single additional hike in the December meeting, based on similar considerations as the first hike,” while underscoring that the path beyond that will hinge on how inflation dynamics evolve.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades at 1.1548, keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1590.
The failure to reclaim this dynamic barrier hints that recent rebounds are being sold into, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 sits in neutral-to-soft territory, suggesting downside pressure persists but without oversold extremes.
Strategists at Scotiabank also see the current setup as “neutral/bearish” with the “RSI has swiftly fallen into bearish territory following a brief push above the overbought threshold at 70—reached in late August.”
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.1590, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery. Looking down, the psychologcial level of 1.1500 is the key support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 16, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
- The Indian Rupee trades weakly against the US Dollar due to higher US Treasury Yields.
- Investors expect the Fed to continue the interest rate hike cycle even after raising them later in the day.
- Rising India’s inflation prompts RBI’s interest rate hike expectations.
The Indian Rupee (INR) holds onto over-a-week long losses against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair trades firmly near its seven-week high at around 96.00, as the Indian currency remains under pressure due to higher United States (US) Treasury Yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade 0.35% lower to near 4.98%, but is still close to its 19-year high of 5.04% posted on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee struggles to regain ground despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervening through spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets. According to a Reuters report, the Indian central bank likely selling US dollars to support the currency.
What’s drove US Treasuries higher
The borrowing costs for the US government have accelerated significantly as markets price in deeper Fed tightening on the back of higher inflation.
According to strategists at Deutsche Bank, investors pricing in a growing chance of a full-blown hiking cycle for the months ahead,” as markets reassessed the policy path. Looking further out along the curve, Deutsche Bank highlights that “90bps of hikes are now priced by the June 2027 meeting, underscoring how expectations for additional Fed tightening have firmed.”
What to expect from the Fed at the policy meeting
The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% at the policy meeting after five straight holds. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at the policy meeting later in the day are 92.5%.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh would be able to take a hawkish decision without any political pressure, as recent remarks from US President Donald Trump signaled that he has come into terms with higher interest rates.
While speaking to reporters at the Irish Open golf tournament over the weekend, US President Trump said that he did not know whether Fed policymakers will raise interest rates at their meeting this week. But stressed that the US "should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world" no matter what the Fed’s data indicates about inflation and the economy, Business Standard reported.
Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook. Warsh is expected to stay with “no forward-guidance policy”.
RBI seen edging toward mini hiking cycle as inflation pressures broaden
According to Societe Generale, the recent “pickup in services inflation is particularly important from a monetary policy perspective,” underscoring that price pressures are becoming more entrenched beyond volatile food components. The bank notes that “with headline inflation above the median target for a third consecutive month and underlying inflation beginning to firm, the room to look through food-led price pressures is narrowing.” Against this backdrop, Societe Generale reiterates that “we continue to believe that the RBI will initiate a mini rate-hike cycle, announcing a 25bp hike at its October meeting, followed by two similar increases at its December and February meetings.” The bank adds that, “although this is not our baseline scenario, we also do not rule out a 50bp hike,” highlighting the risk of a more forceful policy response if inflation dynamics deteriorate further.
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.93. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends its rebound above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.37, suggesting buyers are reasserting control after the recent pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.2 sits in bullish territory but shy of overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive without yet signaling exhaustion.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 95.37, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge if the pair corrects lower. On the upsdie, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high near 97.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- Gold reverses a modest Asian session dip on Wednesday as US Dollar bulls pause for a breather.
- Fed rate hike bets, surging US bond yields and geopolitical risks should limit deeper USD losses.
- Any meaningful appreciation for the bullion seems limited ahead of the key FOMC rate decision.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday move higher and remains below the $4,350 level through the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather after touching a two-week high and offers some support to the commodity. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines heading into the key central bank event.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision later today and is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of its September 15–16 meeting. The focus, meanwhile, will be on the Fed's updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding Gold.
Meanwhile, energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. In fact, crude oil prices shot to a fresh high since May 20 on Tuesday amid growing concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007. Adding to this, escalating Middle East tensions should continue to underpin the safe-haven USD, which might cap the Gold price.
In the latest developments, Saudi Arabia issued security alerts over a range of territory – including the holy city of Mecca and the second-largest city, Jeddah – following a week of attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has promised to respond “firmly” to missile and drone strikes by the Houthi group, raising the risk of further escalation of the regional conflict. Moreover, the US Central Command said it has redirected 103 commercial vessels as part of its blockade on Iranian maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting oil prices and favouring USD bulls.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The precious metal has been showing some resilience below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is now trading just above the 50% retracement level of the July-August upswing. That said, momentum oscillators have softened, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the 50 line. This, in turn, suggests that the upside traction is moderating even as the Gold stays above a key moving average.
Hence, any further move up could confront initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,413, which is followed by a stronger hurdle at the 23.6% retracement around $4,520, where prior supply could re-emerge. On the downside, immediate support aligns first at the 50.0% retracement close to $4,326, reinforced by the 50-day SMA at about $4,280. A break below the latter would expose the 61.8% retracement near $4,240 and deeper retracement supports at approximately $4,116 and $3,959.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- WTI price slumps to near $100.00 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Crude oil inventories rose by 7.14 million barrels in the week ended September 11, API said.
- Traders remain glued to developments in the Middle East after an Iran-backed attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $100.00 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI falls after an unexpected build in US crude inventories. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the Middle East conflicts as Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at its Yanbu port.
US crude oil inventories see an unexpected weekly build, weighing on the WTI price. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending September 11 climbed by 7.14 million barrels, compared to a decline of 300,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a fall of 1.8 million barrels.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port had been paused after the world's biggest crude exporter shut its East-West pipeline following an attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on Friday.
Saudi Arabia has used the pipeline to reroute around 4 million barrels per day, or about 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea port. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that the closure was a brief interruption that will last days. Meanwhile, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that “judging from the on-line pictures, it will take months to repair.” Concerns over supply disruptions could boost the black gold in the near term.
Oil balances tighten as Rabobank flags dwindling inventories and SPR strain
Analysts at Rabobank warn that the latest supply disruption is unfolding against an increasingly fragile backdrop, noting that "the new disruption comes as crude inventories continue to decline globally and SPRs are beginning to hit worrisome levels." In their view, this combination of falling stocks and strained strategic reserves underpins a structurally tighter market and reinforces their higher WTI price profile for the coming years.
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $100.05. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds comfortably above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $85.36 and the 20-day Bollinger middle band around $90.05, indicating firm underlying demand after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 69, hinting at strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum as price approaches the upper Bollinger band.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the upper Bollinger band near $102.75, and a clear daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around $90.05, with the 100-day SMA at $85.36 and the lower Bollinger band near $77.36 providing deeper levels where buyers could look to re-emerge if a corrective phase develops.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY advances to a one-week high on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through buying.
- USD bulls pause for a breather ahead of the Fed decision and cap the upside for spot prices.
- A more hawkish BoJ repricing helps limit deeper JPY losses and further keeps a lid on the pair.
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers for the third straight day and touches a one-week high, around the 155.45-155.50 region, during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through as traders seem hesitant ahead of the key central bank event.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) concludes its September policy meeting today and is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Investors, however, will keep a close eye on updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot, and Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks during the post-meeting press conference for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
The immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to remain limited amid a more hawkish repricing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) normalization path. In fact, traders now seem to have fully priced in a 25 bps rate hike at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday and see a greater possibility of a follow-up move in December. This, in turn, might hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, investors remain worried about energy-driven inflation risks, which underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007. This, along with geopolitical risks, might continue to underpin the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair holds well above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and maintains a constructive bullish intraday bias. The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 155.65 marks the first upside hurdle, with the 50% retracement at 156.55 and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at 156.81 reinforcing a broader supply zone.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% retracement around 154.54, while a deeper pullback toward the Fibonacci anchor near 152.75 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure on the 4-hour time frame.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.33% | 1.13% | 0.43% | 0.48% | 1.23% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | -0.16% | 0.65% | -0.05% | 0.01% | 0.75% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | 0.16% | 0.84% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.92% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -1.13% | -0.65% | -0.84% | -0.70% | -0.69% | 0.04% | -0.84% | |
| CAD | -0.43% | 0.05% | -0.11% | 0.70% | 0.08% | 0.80% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.01% | -0.17% | 0.69% | -0.08% | 0.75% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -1.23% | -0.75% | -0.92% | -0.04% | -0.80% | -0.75% | -0.94% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.84% | 0.15% | 0.18% | 0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,341.32 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,240.35 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 155,611.10 per tola from INR 154,432.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,341.32 |
10 Grams | 133,403.20 |
Tola | 155,611.10 |
Troy Ounce | 414,961.80 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Asian stocks rise modestly on Wednesday as investors await the crucial Fed rate decision.
- Oil-driven inflationary concerns and hawkish central bank expectations weigh on sentiment.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions might contribute to keeping a lid on any optimistic move.
Asian equity markets trade with modest gains on Wednesday, tracking stability in US stock index futures, though sentiment remains cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. High oil prices, escalating Middle East tensions and surging bond yields also kept markets on edge.
The US central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of a two-day meeting later today. Furthermore, energy-driven inflation fears underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. Hence, the market focus will be on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks during the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the broader risk sentiment.
Meanwhile, oil prices touched the highest level since May 20 on Tuesday amid growing concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East. This could directly drive up wholesale and retail inflation worldwide, which might prompt central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007.
At press time, South Korea’s KOSPI was up around 1.25% for the day, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and India’s Nifty50 rose around 0.25%. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 gained over 0.50% as traders keenly await the widely expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike on Friday.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- USD/CHF declines as the US Dollar weakens ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
- Strong US inflation data drives a 92.4% market expectation for a Fed rate hike.
- OECD raised Swiss growth forecasts to 2% after strong exports fueled a five-year Q2 peak.
USD/CHF halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 0.8180 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair inches lower as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the Greenback may rebound as hotter-than-expected, released last week, US inflation data that solidified expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Financial markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, which would lift the benchmark overnight rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Data from the CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are pricing in nearly a 92.4% probability of this quarter-point increase, alongside expectations that the Fed will signal additional rate hikes ahead.
Strategists at UOB Group note that they “turned positive on USD late last week,” and reiterate that while “upward momentum continues to build,” it remains “currently unclear whether it is sufficient for USD to rise to the significant resistance at 0.8205.” They point out that after their latest update on 14 Sep, when spot was at 0.8165, USD/CHF “subsequently rose to 0.8195,” underscoring the improving tone. However, UOB cautions that “given the overbought conditions, USD must break and hold above 0.8205 before a move to 0.8245 can be expected.” On the downside, they stress that “to keep the momentum going, USD must not break below 0.8130,” noting that the “strong support” level had been at 0.8110 previously.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has emphasized the urgent need for structural tax and pension reforms to safeguard long-term fiscal stability. This call to action comes as the country faces mounting spending pressures driven by a rapidly aging population and intensifying geopolitical challenges.
Despite these structural headwinds, the OECD significantly upgraded its economic growth forecast from 1.1% to 2%. This upward revision follows a remarkably strong second-quarter performance, where economic expansion hit 1.5%, marking its highest level in five years, largely propelled by a weaker Swiss franc that provided a strong boost to domestic exporters.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- UK inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.1% YoY in August from 2.9% in July, driven in part by higher energy prices.
- Core inflation is also expected to pick up, while further energy and food price pressure looms.
- The data comes one day before the BoE’s decision, with policymakers expected to keep rates unchanged.
The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT.
The inflation report could trigger volatility in the British Pound (GBP), as it comes just one day before the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, but another acceleration in price pressure could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike in the coming months.
What to expect from the next UK inflation report?
The UK Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 3.1% YoY in August, up from 2.9% in July, moving further away from the BoE’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.5% in August, following a 0.3% rise in July.
Core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco components, is also expected to accelerate to 2.7% YoY from 2.6% previously. A simultaneous increase in headline and core inflation could fuel concerns at the BoE about persistent price pressure.
The expected acceleration in headline inflation comes as the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East continue to feed through to UK energy costs. UK Finance notes that transport prices rose 9.1% YoY in July and that pump prices increased again in August, with a litre of unleaded petrol reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Inflationary pressure could also persist beyond the August report. UK energy regulator Ofgem has confirmed another 4% increase in the energy price cap from October, following the increase implemented in July.
Risks also appear to be spreading to food prices. The latest Worldpanel by Numerator data showed that grocery price inflation accelerated to 2.3% YoY in the four weeks to September 6, from 2.1% in the previous report. Meanwhile, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) expects food and non-alcoholic drink inflation to reach 3.9% in December before exceeding 6% in 2027, due in part to higher energy costs, logistical disruptions and weather conditions.
This pressure could further complicate the disinflation process. The BoE projected in July that headline inflation would peak at around 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, while judging that risks to its inflation outlook were tilted to the upside. Bloomberg Economics now estimates that higher energy costs could push UK inflation above 4% in 2027.
How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD?
Wednesday’s release is particularly important for GBP/USD as it comes on the eve of the BoE’s monetary policy decision. Economists widely expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. All 65 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll conducted between September 4 and 8 expect the BoE to remain on hold on Thursday, while 57 of them anticipate rates staying unchanged through the end of the year.
Markets, however, are taking a more hawkish view. According to Morningstar, interest rate markets see a potential first BoE rate hike as early as November and are pricing in three increases by mid-2027.
Divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) add to the importance of the inflation report. At the July meeting, three of the nine committee members voted for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate increase, up from two members previously.
The key debate for the BoE, however, remains whether the energy shock is generating more persistent second-round inflation effects. According to Reuters, citing HSBC UK economist Elizabeth Martins, the BoE has indicated that it would consider a policy move if second-round effects emerged, but current conditions are unlikely to be enough for policymakers supporting unchanged rates to switch their votes.
A report showing headline and core inflation above expectations could nevertheless change the picture. Such a surprise would reinforce concerns that energy-related pressures are beginning to spread more broadly through the economy and could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. In this scenario, the British Pound could attract fresh demand, pushing GBP/USD higher.
Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation, particularly in the core measure, would strengthen the argument that the energy shock remains largely temporary and is not yet generating persistent domestic price pressure. This could reduce expectations of BoE monetary tightening and weigh on the British Pound.
A release broadly in line with expectations could quickly shift attention toward the composition of the report, particularly services inflation, as well as the BoE’s vote split and policy message on Thursday. With a September rate hike still considered unlikely, the key question for markets could be whether the acceleration in August inflation is strong enough to bring the next rate increase closer.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3529 and a confluence of resistance around 1.3550 marked by the 100-period SMA and a horizontal cap, while a downward-sloping trendline continues to weigh on rallies. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers in the high-30s, hinting that downside momentum remains in place even as price stabilizes just above nearby supports.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 200-period SMA around 1.3529, with a denser barrier near 1.3550 where the 100-period SMA aligns with horizontal resistance, ahead of the 1.3570 level and the overarching descending trendline. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3480, with further cushions at 1.3464 and 1.3434; a clear break below this support band would open the door to an extension of the current bearish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 16, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.1%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
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