Forex News
- EUR/USD gains slightly as the US Dollar inches lower following recent volatility.
- Traders await new Fed Chairman Warsh’s first Meeting Minutes for vital clues on future US interest rates.
- ECB’s Fabio Panetta warned Eurozone inflation risks stay high due to Strait of Hormuz energy supply uncertainties.
EUR/USD maintains its position after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders’ attention is focused on Wednesday's release of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes, the first under newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, for crucial clues regarding the future path of US interest rates.
The EUR/USD holds minor gains as the US Dollar (USD) inches lower after experiencing volatility. The Greenback may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand and renewing geopolitical tensions. US airstrikes against Iran came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that the era of bullying and extortion has ended and insisted that Iran will not fold under pressure. Meanwhile, the country's top joint military command denounced the attacks on southern Iran as blatant aggression, promising a crushing military response. Defiant over the strategic waterway, Tehran reaffirmed that it will block any US interference regarding the control and management of the Strait of Hormuz.
European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike bets rose after board member Isabel Schnabel warned that the Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta warned Eurozone inflation risks remain high due to energy supply uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz.
Panetta flags fragile outlook and inflation risks, supporting Euro underperformance
ECB’s Panetta scores 6.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, notably above the historic 4.2/10 baseline, signaling a more impactful intervention than usual. The focus on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and increasingly frequent supply shocks underscores persistent upside inflation risks, tilting the tone modestly hawkish despite clear concern about downside growth.
By stressing that upside inflation and downside growth risks remain and that the outlook is fragile, the speech reinforces a narrative of constrained policy flexibility. For FX, this mix of inflation vigilance and growth anxiety suggests limited support for the Euro, with markets likely to price in lingering risk premia rather than a confident policy tightening path.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Indian Rupee trades marginally higher against the US Dollar despite a significant recovery in oil prices.
- Renewed Middle East risks have lifted oil prices.
- Investors await FOMC Minutes for fresh cues over the US interest rate outlook.
The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks higher against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair edges down to near 95.00 despite renewed geopolitical risks, following United States (US) attacks on Iran, which have lifted oil prices.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 is up 2.62% to near 6,882. The contract also gained almost 2.35% on Tuesday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform when oil prices surge.
US strikes in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships
The US Central Command has reported, through a post on X, that it launched powerful attacks on Iranian military infrastructure for attacking commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for almost 20% of global energy supply. In response, Tehran clarified that it attacked those ships for crossing the chokepoint without its approval. However, the US, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have blamed Iran for the attacks on the vessels.
Meanwhile, Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has accused the US of violating the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed to end the war, and warned that Tehran won’t step back. “The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.
US Dollar ticks down ahead of FOMC Minutes
In the late Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near 101.10. The US Dollar is expected to trade broadly sideways ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Investors will gauge what possible reasons were behind policymakers’ decision to avoid delivering remarks on the monetary policy outlook. In the policy press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that forward-looking remarks are not well-suited in the current policy juncture.
FIIs remain net buyers for three straight trading days
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to increase their stake in the Indian stock market, extending the buying streak for three trading days on Tuesday. In the past three trading days, overseas investors have poured investment worth Rs. 1,991.55 crore. An improvement in sentiment of foreign investors towards Indian equities ahead of the start of the Q1FY27 earnings season underscores their optimism over quarterly earnings growth.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR falls to near 95.00
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.00, holding a neutral bias as spot has corrected to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 95.00. The pair is testing the breakout region of the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 points to neutral momentum that neither signals overbought conditions nor strong downside pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.00; a break below it would expose the pair to the May 7 low at 94.03. On the topside, a more meaningful resistance level is seen near the original descending trendline start point around 97, where a sustained break would open the way for a stronger bullish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- Gold attracts some buyers as the USD bulls turn cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting Minutes.
- Renewed US-Iran hostilities could support the safe-haven Greenback amid hawkish Fed expectations.
- Reviving inflation fears push US bond yields higher and should cap the non-yielding precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to its modest intraday gains above the $4,100 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak, reaching the weekly trough touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on a modest uptick as bulls turn cautious ahead of the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the bullion. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants caution before confirming that the pullback from levels just above the $4,200 mark, or a two-week high set on Monday, has run its course.
The US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. Traders were quick to price in the geopolitical risk premium amid concerns about a further escalation of tensions, which might continue to benefit the Greenback's reserve currency status and cap the Gold price. The US also moved to withdraw a key concession that allowed Iran to sell oil on international markets, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices on Tuesday. The latest developments revive energy-driven inflationary fears and reaffirm the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) "higher for longer" policy stance.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will deliver at least one 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the end of this year. Adding to this, expectations of a more hawkish tone in the Fed Minutes push US Treasury bond yields higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to 4.567%, and the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.189% on Wednesday. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should contribute to keeping a lid on the non-yielding Gold. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold needs to surpass descending channel hurdle to negate bearish bias
From a technical perspective, the precious metal remains entrenched inside a downward-sloping channel and retains a bearish near-term bias below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, hinting at a short-term recovery attempt. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.33 stays below the midline, reinforcing a still-cautious tone rather than a sustained bullish reversal.
This, in turn, suggests that rallies are likely to face stiff resistance and remain capped by overhead supply near the channel’s upper boundary at $4,164.35, despite improving momentum. A convincing breakout through the said barrier and a subsequent move beyond the 200-day SMA at $4,491.30, which marks a more significant barrier, would be needed to ease the broader bearish pressure.
On the downside, the first meaningful structural support aligns with the channel’s lower boundary around $3,713.85. Buyers may attempt to defend the broader trend floor if the current rebound fails and XAU/USD resumes its slide within the bearish channel.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- NZD/USD catches fresh bids on Wednesday in reaction to the RBNZ’s hawkish rate hike.
- Subdued USD demand lends additional support to the pair ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
- The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls amid renewed US-Iran hostilities.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) first rate hike in three years and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains in the wake of the central bank's hawkish outlook, saying that further rate increases appear likely at the coming meetings. Moreover, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action backs the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair as the market focus shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes, due later today.
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently placed near the 0.5715 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June fall. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low, touched last month.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.98 is mildly constructive, though this improving momentum only hints at consolidation rather than a clear topside break while the NZD/USD pair stays beneath the aforementioned barrier. A sustained strength, however, should pave the way for a move towards the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5767 and the 50% retracement near 0.5811. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 0.5855, the 78.6% level at 0.5917, and the cycle high at 0.5996 form successive resistances for any recovery.
On the downside, the only notable structural support in view emerges at the Fibonacci anchor around 0.5626, where buyers would be expected to show interest if the pair extends its decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
RBNZ FAQs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Silver price rises to around $60.35 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- US and Iran exchanged fire after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders await the June FOMC meeting Minutes later on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to near $60.35, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal edges higher amid a softer US Dollar (USD) ahead of the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes.
The US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire.
“US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” Centcom said on Tuesday.
The latest developments could raise energy-driven inflationary fears and reaffirm the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) "higher for longer" policy stance, which would weigh on the white metal.
Traders are currently pricing in over an 80% probability that the Fed will deliver at least one 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the end of this year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The US central bank will release the Minutes from its June 16–17 policy meeting later in the day. However, the messages recorded in the Minutes happened before the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which came in weaker than expected. Because the Fed Minutes reflect a labor market that still looked solid at mid-day June, any hawkish rhetoric might feel slightly outdated to current market pricing.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,620.82 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,558.66 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,207.30 per tola from INR 146,481.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,620.82 |
10 Grams | 126,208.70 |
Tola | 147,207.30 |
Troy Ounce | 392,560.30 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/IDR strengthens as Indonesia's June consumer confidence dropped to 117.8 from May's 120.9, weakening the Rupiah.
- Traders await new Fed Chairman Warsh’s first Meeting Minutes for vital clues on future US interest rates.
- Safe-haven demand from renewed geopolitical tensions supports the US Dollar.
USD/IDR gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 18,050 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair holds ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) remains subdued following the release of the latest Consumer Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia (BI), indicating an optimistic (index >100) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 117.8 in June, against the 120.9 in May.
Traders’ attention is focused on Wednesday's release of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes, the first under newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, for crucial clues regarding the future path of US interest rates.
The US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid renewing geopolitical tensions. US airstrikes against Iran came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that the era of bullying and extortion has ended and insisted that Iran will not fold under pressure. Meanwhile, the country's top joint military command denounced the attacks on southern Iran as blatant aggression, promising a crushing military response. Defiant over the strategic waterway, Tehran reaffirmed that it will block any US interference regarding the control and management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia reflects the change in consumer confidence in economic conditions compared with one month earlier. The report includes Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) and Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) to paint an accurate picture of consumer sentiment in the country.
Read more.Last release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 117.8
Consensus: -
Previous: 120.9
Source:
- WTI enters a consolidation phase following an Asian session uptick to a two-week high.
- Fresh US-Iran tensions and supply disruption worries lend support to the commodity.
- The OPEC+ decision to raise oil production and Saudi Arabia's oil price cut cap gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up and enters a bullish consolidation phase near a two-week high, touched during the Asian session this Wednesday. The black liquid currently trades just above the $72.00 mark, with bulls awaiting a sustained strength beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) amid renewed US-Iran hostilities.
In fact, the US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. Moreover, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that it targeted 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait following the US ceasefire breach and added that it downed a US MQ9 drone in the country's south. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflict in the region, prompting traders to price in geopolitical risk premiums and acting as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, the US also moved to withdraw a key concession that allowed Iran to sell oil in international markets. Furthermore, the US-Iran standoff fuels concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, lending additional support to the black liquid. The upside for the commodity, however, remains capped on the back of the OPEC+ decision of another production target increase starting in August. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia slashed its August official selling price to Asia by an unprecedented $11 per barrel, which contributes to keeping a lid on gains for Crude Oil prices.
The market focus now shifts to the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes, which will play a key role in driving the US Dollar (USD) demand and providing some impetus to the USD-denominated commodities. Apart from this, developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility in Crude Oil prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
