Forex News
- Silver may recover as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to rise.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in more than an 84% chance of the 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- White House shortlisted Kevin Hassett as Fed chair, a candidate investors view as aligned with Trump’s preference for lower rates.
Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after three days of gains, trading around $52.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the non-interest-bearing Silver may regain its ground amid rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets in December, given that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
US data showed unexpectedly low Initial Jobless Claims and stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders, yet rate-cut expectations remained intact. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a more than 84% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from the 30% probability that markets priced a week ago.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Wednesday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The result was stronger than the market expectation of 225,000. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average eased by 1,000 to 223,750.
Fed rate expectations increased by reports that the White House has narrowed its search for the next Fed chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Investors see Hassett as supportive of US President Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
The dollar-denominated Silver attracts buyers with foreign currencies amid a weakening Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the third successive session and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The Australian Dollar remains stronger as Private Capital Expenditure rose by 6.4% QoQ in Q3.
- The AUD also strengthened after the latest monthly CPI release added to the RBA's cautious sentiment.
- The US Dollar extends losses amid rising odds of a Fed rate cut in December.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth successive session. The AUD/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets in December.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Private Capital Expenditure on Thursday, which rose by 6.4% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, accelerating from a 0.2% gain in Q2 and surpassing the 0.5% expected. On Wednesday, ABS reported the first “complete” monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which climbed by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. The reading surpassed the market consensus of a 3.6% rise and a 3.5% increase prior.
The AUD gained ground after the first monthly CPI boosted the cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook. The RBA is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% in December as inflation remains above RBA’s 2–3% target range. RBA officials noted that the unemployment rate has risen slightly, but the job market remains healthy and is expected to continue doing so.
The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures showed, as of November 26, the December 2025 contract trading at 96.41, implying a 6% chance that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 3.35% from 3.60% at its upcoming Board meeting.
US Dollar declines amid increasing Fed rate cut bets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing. The Greenback extended its losses amid reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative policy stance, driven by reports that the White House has narrowed its search for the next Fed chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Investors see Hassett as supportive of US President Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a more than 84% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from the 30% probability that markets priced a week ago.
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Wednesday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The result was stronger than the market expectation of 225,000. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average eased by 1,000 to 223,750.
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year in September, matching expectations and August’s reading and suggesting that inflationary pressures have stabilized. Core PPI eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, undershooting the forecast of 2.7%.
- The US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, slowing from the 0.6% increase seen in August, indicating more cautious consumer spending. Separately, the Conference Board reported a sharp deterioration in household sentiment, with Consumer Confidence sliding 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business on Monday that his primary concern is the weakening labour market, adding that inflation is “not a big problem” given the recent softness in employment. He also said the September payrolls figure will likely be revised lower and warned that concentrated hiring is “not a good sign,” indicating his support for a near-term rate cut.
- New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Moreover, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Nonfarm Payrolls data support a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
- The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in November, versus 49.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 52.7 in November from the previous reading of 52.5, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.6 in November versus 52.1 prior.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting last week, indicating that board members signalled a more balanced policy stance, adding that it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected.
- RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted last week that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures.” Hunter noted that monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the central bank won’t react to a single month of figures. She added that the RBA is closely assessing labour-market conditions to gauge supply capacity and is examining how the effects of monetary policy may be changing over time.
Australian Dollar eyes 0.6600 barrier after breaking above nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6530 on Thursday. The daily chart analysis shows the pair holding within a rectangular consolidation zone, signaling a neutral bias. The pair has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), highlighting that short-term upward momentum has turned stronger.
The AUD/USD pair may explore the region around the rectangle’s upper boundary near 0.6630.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could retreat toward the psychological level of 0.6500, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 0.6495. A break below this confluence support area could prompt the AUD/USD pair to test the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6420, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.22% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.53% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.46% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.12% | 0.05% | -0.05% | -0.43% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.33% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.45% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.09% | -0.36% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 0.33% | 0.45% | 0.36% | 0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- WTI price falls as the possible Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could lift Western sanctions on Russian Oil.
- US envoy Steve Witkoff will visit Moscow next week for talks with Russian leaders on ending the Ukraine war.
- Scepticism persists, and even with a deal, any increase in Russian shipments is expected to take time.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price loses ground after registering more than 1% gains in the previous session, trading around $58.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude Oil prices fell on reports of a potential Ukraine–Russia ceasefire, though overall trading remained thin due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.
The possible ceasefire has raised speculation that Western sanctions on Russian Oil could eventually be rolled back. Adding to this optimism, US envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week alongside other senior US officials for discussions with Russian leaders on a plan to end the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine, the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
However, a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday that Moscow will not make major concessions on a peace plan, following a leaked recording of a call in which Witkoff appeared to advise Russian officials on how to present their case to US President Donald Trump.
Oil prices edged higher as investors sought clarity on future supply amid the ongoing Russia–Ukraine peace efforts. Still, scepticism remains over whether the talks will lead to a breakthrough anytime soon, and even if an agreement is reached, markets expect any increase in Russian shipments to take time to materialise.
Reuters reported three OPEC+ sources earlier this week, saying that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are expected to keep production levels unchanged at Sunday’s meeting. Some members of the group, which supplies about half of the world’s oil, have been increasing output since April to capture additional market share.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/USD attracts buyers for the fourth consecutive day amid sustained USD selling bias.
- The divergent Fed-ECB policy outlooks favor bulls and back the case for additional gains.
- A sustained strength beyond the 200-day SMA is needed to validate the positive outlook.
The EUR/USD pair prolongs its uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs beyond the 1.1600 mark, to a one-and-a-half-week top, during the Asian session on Thursday. The momentum is sponsored by the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US Dollar (USD), and lifts spot prices closer to a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, slides to an over one-week trough amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, traders are now pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again in December, and the bets were lifted by recent comments from several Fed officials. Moreover, a mixed set of economic indicators released this week does little to temper expectations. This, along with the upbeat market mood, is seen undermining the safe-haven buck and, in turn, acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
The shared currency, on the other hand, draws some support from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious monetary policy outlook. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos sounded slightly more positive on growth and said on Wednesday that the current level of rates is the correct one. Adding to this, Croatian central bank chief Boris Vujcic noted that the ECB should only cut rates again if price growth is heading below target without rebounding. Furthermore, ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane said that a slowdown in non-energy inflation is needed to keep overall price growth near the 2% target.
Meanwhile, a majority of economists expect that the ECB will hold its deposit rate this year and see no change by the end of next year. This, in turn, favors the Euro (EUR) bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside. However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 200-day SMA barrier, currently pegged near the 1.1625 region, before positioning for any further appreciating move. Furthermore, relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US warrant some caution for bullish traders.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.83% | -1.17% | -0.30% | -0.50% | -1.17% | -1.99% | -0.71% | |
| EUR | 0.83% | -0.35% | 0.54% | 0.34% | -0.35% | -1.17% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | 1.17% | 0.35% | 0.89% | 0.68% | -0.01% | -0.83% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | -0.54% | -0.89% | -0.22% | -0.94% | -1.83% | -0.41% | |
| CAD | 0.50% | -0.34% | -0.68% | 0.22% | -0.67% | -1.48% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | 1.17% | 0.35% | 0.00% | 0.94% | 0.67% | -0.81% | 0.50% | |
| NZD | 1.99% | 1.17% | 0.83% | 1.83% | 1.48% | 0.81% | 1.31% | |
| CHF | 0.71% | -0.12% | -0.47% | 0.41% | 0.21% | -0.50% | -1.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Gold edges lower on Thursday as the upbeat market mood prompts some profit-taking.
- The risk-on mood and hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal undermine the commodity.
- Dovish Fed expectations keep the USD depressed and could support the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day's gains to a nearly two-week top. The prospects for lower US interest rates, along with hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, remain supportive of the upbeat market mood. This, in turn, is seen driving some flows away from the safe-haven bullion amid relatively thin trading volumes on the back of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.
Meanwhile, a mixed set of US economic indicators released this week did little to alter market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again at its December policy meeting. The outlook drags the US Dollar (USD) to over a one-week low and should continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful corrective decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls turn cautious amid receding safe-haven demand
- The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that new orders for manufactured Durable Goods Orders rose 0.5% in September, down from the upwardly revised 3.0% increase in the previous month. The reading, however, exceeded market expectations of 0.3%. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% during the reported month, while excluding defense, they increased 0.1% following a 1.9% rise the prior month.
- Separately, the latest figures published by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to 216K, or a seven-month low, in the week ending November 22. This helps to offset the disappointing release of the Chicago PMI, which unexpectedly fell deeper into contraction territory and came in at 36.3 for November. The US Dollar, however, struggles to lure buyers amid dovish Federal Reserve expectations.
- Recent comments from top Fed officials shifted market expectations strongly in favor of another quarter-point reduction at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. In fact, New York Fed President John Williams said last Friday that interest rates could fall in the near term without putting the central bank's inflation goal at risk. Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at the start of this week that the job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December.
- Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran echoed the dovish view and noted in a television interview on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market and the economy call for large interest rate cuts to get monetary policy to neutral. The outlook, in turn, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to an over one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday. This might continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold.
- Russia said that the US-brokered talks to end the war with Ukraine are serious, though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that an agreement is a long way off and Moscow would offer no major concessions. US President Donald Trump said that a Ukraine–Russia agreement is very close, fueling optimism. This, along with prospects for lower US interest rates, remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets and weighs on the safe-haven bullion.
Gold constructive setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels
Any subsequent slide is likely to find decent support near the $4,132-4,130 region, below which the Gold price could accelerate the fall toward the $4,100 mark. Some follow-through selling would expose a confluence support, comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trend-line extending from late October, currently pegged around the $4,040 area. A convincing break below the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $4,000 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the $4,171-4,173 zone, or a nearly two-week high touched on Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $4,200 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the momentum toward testing the monthly swing high, around the $4,245 zone.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5710 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- New Zealand’s Retail Sales rose 1.9% QoQ in Q3, stronger than expected.
- US weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 216,000 last week.
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.5710 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver a further interest rate cut in December.
Data released by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday showed that Retail Sales rose by 1.9% QoQ in the third quarter (Q3), compared to an increase of 0.5% in the previous reading (revised from 0.7%). This figure came in stronger than the expectation of 0.6%. Meanwhile, Retail Sales ex Autos climbed 1.9% QoQ in Q3, versus 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%). The Kiwi attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat New Zealand Retail Sales data.
Furthermore, business confidence in New Zealand has hit its highest level in 11 years, according to the ANZ's Business Outlook (ANZBO) survey for November. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said on Thursday that the improvement in sentiment "is rooted in an improvement in experienced activity, not just hope”.
US President Donald Trump is potentially naming top economic adviser Kevin Hassett as successor to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Traders believe that the leading candidate to be the next Fed chair may pursue a more dovish policy, which could undermine the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 22 declined by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000. This registered the lowest level since April. Economists had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Some stronger signs in the US labor market might help limit the USD’s losses in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- USD/CAD clings to Wednesday’s losses around 1.4030 amid firm Fed dovish bets.
- Fed’s Williams supported more interest rate cuts last week, while warning job market risks.
- Investors await Canada Q3 GDP, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
The USD/CAD pair holds onto Wednesday’s losses around 1.4030 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair has been under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains fragile due to firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again this year.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% to near 99.45. This is the lowest level seen in over a week.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.82% | -1.18% | -0.33% | -0.46% | -1.09% | -1.82% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.82% | -0.37% | 0.49% | 0.36% | -0.28% | -1.00% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | 1.18% | 0.37% | 0.85% | 0.73% | 0.09% | -0.64% | 0.50% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | -0.49% | -0.85% | -0.14% | -0.81% | -1.61% | -0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | -0.36% | -0.73% | 0.14% | -0.62% | -1.34% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | 1.09% | 0.28% | -0.09% | 0.81% | 0.62% | -0.72% | 0.43% | |
| NZD | 1.82% | 1.00% | 0.64% | 1.61% | 1.34% | 0.72% | 1.15% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | -0.13% | -0.50% | 0.35% | 0.23% | -0.43% | -1.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates in the December policy meeting has increased to 84.7% from 30.1% seen a week ago.
Traders have become increasingly confident about the Fed reducing interest rates in the December policy meeting, following dovish comments from New York Fed Bank President John Williams, who is the permanent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member.
Last week, Fed’s Williams supported the need of further interest rate adjustment for the year, citing downside labour market risks.
In Thursday’s session, the action in the US Dollar is expected to remain light as United States (US) markets will be closed on account of Thanksgiving Day.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be released on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly calm ahead of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is scheduled for Friday. Statistics Canada is expected to show that the economy expanded by 0.5% on an annualized basis after declining 1.6% in the previous quarter.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canada’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 28, 2025 13:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: -
Previous: -0.4%
Source:
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday, “if economic activity and prices develop in line with the bank's outlook, the bank will gradually adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.”
Additional quotes
What is needed for inflation to be sufficiently sustainable and stable is steady expansion in demand and an accompanying sustained increase in nominal wages.
Although growth in the CPI will likely decline overall, I believe that a chain reaction of price hikes could occur in certain areas, as has happened with food, including rice.
Once tightness in supply and demand conditions begins to generate upward momentum, it is not rare at all for prices to continue rising as firms compensate for previous delays in passing on costs.
Whether or not underlying inflation will continue to rise steadily toward 2% target will depend entirely on whether the momentum of wage increases is sustained, spreads to small and medium-sized firms and regional economies.
Impact from US tariffs limited so far.
If price target achieved in 2nd half of projected period of outlook report, BoJ should adjust rate at appropriate pace to align with that tlimeline.
That means raising policy interest rate at a pace that will make it possible to smoothly reach the neutral interest rate when 2% inflation target is achieved.
Market reaction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds gains following these comments, with USD/JPY down 0.23% on the day at 156.12, as of writing.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Business confidence as measured by ANZ's Business Outlook (ANZBO) survey for November has hit its highest level in 11 years.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said on Thursday that the improvement in sentiment "is rooted in an improvement in experienced activity, not just hope”.
Business confidence climbed another 9 points from 58 to 67 in November, while expected own activity rose 8 points to a net 53%, also the highest in more than a decade.
Market reaction
The NZD/USD pair is gaining 0.34% on the day to trade at 0.5710, at the press time.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.0779 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0796 and 7.0733 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
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