Forex News

• Silver attempts to extend gains past $75.00 after bouncing from lows near $64.00.
• The precious metal has dropped nearly 30% over the last two weeks.
• XAG/USD technical picture remains bearish while below the $92.00 area.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming some losses during Friday’s early European session, trading right above $74.00 at the time of writing, after hitting fresh seven-month lows near $64.00 earlier on the day. The pair, however, remains capped below a previous support area, in the vicinity of $75.00.

The white metal has dropped nearly 30% over the last two weeks, weighed down by investors' relief after US President Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the replacement for Jerome Powell as the central bank’s chairman, and by easing geopolitical tensions, as the US and Iran opened negotiations to avoid a conflict.

Technical Analysis: XAG/USD remains bearish while below $92.00Chart Analysis XAG/USD

XAG/USD is picking up from lows, with the technical picture showing a bearish scenario. The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which acted as a dynamic support during the bullish cycle, extends its decline, with the pair holding beneath it. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped back below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating weak traction.

Silver's recovery found resistance at the $75.00 area, which is holding bulls for now. Further up, the pair might find resistance at an intraday level around $81.00. Key resistance is at Wednesday's high in the area of $92.00.

Immediate support is at the daily low of $64.08, below that level, the $60.00 round level, and early December lows, in the $56.00 area, might come into focus

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $73.54 per troy ounce, down 0.14% from the $73.64 it cost on Thursday.

Silver prices have increased by 3.45% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 65.90 on Friday, up from 65.34 on Thursday.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, following significant cuts in previous months. The ECB's current stance reflects a data-dependent approach, with inflation easing and growth remaining resilient despite global uncertainties. The outlook suggests rates will remain on hold over the medium-term, with a bias towards potential cuts if economic conditions deteriorate, notes Lee Sue Ann from UOB Group.

ECB keeps rates steady amid economic resilience

"The European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, following 200 bps of cuts since Jun 2024, maintaining a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and judging policy and inflation dynamics to be 'in a good place'."

"We had previously expected a 25 bps rate cut this quarter, but now judge that the bar for further easing has risen, leading us to revise our view towards policy rates remaining on hold over the medium-term horizon."

"That said, if conditions change, the bias would still tilt towards a cut rather than a hike, reflecting downside risks to growth and the disinflationary influence of euro strength."

"Lagarde noted that a stronger euro could contribute to inflation undershooting the 2% target, but framed this in a largely analytical manner, stressing that recent currency moves remain broadly consistent with the ECB’s baseline assumptions and are not, for now, a source of concern."

"While the bias would still tilt towards a cut rather than a hike if conditions change — given downside growth risks, euro strength, and disinflationary forces — only a sustained undershoot of the 2% inflation target would meaningfully reopen the case for renewed easing."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING's Chris Turner discusses the Bank of England's recent dovish stance, which was unexpected and has shifted market expectations towards potential rate cuts. Turner suggests that political pressures could delay the easing cycle, and expects EUR/GBP to find support at 0.8670/80, with a bias towards 0.88 in the coming month.

Market adjusts to dovish BoE

"We see plenty of room for sterling to take the strain here and would look for EUR/GBP to now find support at 0.8670/80."

"Our bias over the next month is towards 0.88 as political pressure remains on Starmer and data slowly adds to the case for a March BoE rate cut."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1800, with 1.1765 low at hand.
• The overall risk-averse sentiment and weak German Industrial data are weighing on the Euro.
• The ECB kept rates on hold and signalled a steady monetary policy on Thursday.

The Euro (EUR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading near 1.1800 at the time of writing after hitting fresh two-week lows of 1.1765 earlier on the day. The sell-off in Equity markets has cast an overall risk-averse sentiment that is buoying the safe-haven Greenback, while German Industrial Production data has disappointed.

The US Dollar is drawing support from a global rout on Equities, with the tech sector leading losses amid growing market concerns about aggressive spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI). The risk-off mood has offset the impact of a string of downbeat US employment figures, which has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to provide further support to employment creation.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) stood pat on interest rates, as widely expected, and dismissed concerns about Euro strength, pointing to a steady monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

Later on Friday, ECB Governing Council Member Martin Kocher will take the stage, while in the US session, the focus will be on the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has been delayed for next week due to a partial government shutdown.

Daily Digest market Movers: The US Dollar firms up in risk-off markets

• The main Wall Street indexes dropped for the third consecutive day on Thursday, dragged down by a sell-off in tech stocks as quarterly earnings boosted investors' concerns about an AI bubble.
• The US Dollar is trading higher against its main currency peers since US President Donald Trump selected former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the replacement of Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman. The market views Warsh as someone who will defend the central bank's independence and maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing.
• On Thursday, the ECB left its Rate on Deposit Facility on hold at 2% and stuck to its view that inflation will stabilize around the 2% level, despite the soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures seen recently in the Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that monetary policy is in a "good place" and downplayed the risks to inflation stemming from a strong Euro.
• In the US, employment data raised alarms, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims surging to 231K in the week ending January 31, from 209K the previous week, and job openings dropping to five-year lows at 6.542 million in December, from 6.928 million in November.
• The weak employment figures come after a downbeat ADP Employment report on Wednesday and have boosted market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in the first half of the year. The odds for a March rate cut have increased to 22% from 9% earlier this week, and chances of an April cut have risen to 40% from 24% in previous days, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool
• Data from the Eurozone released on Friday revealed that German Industrial Production contracted 1.9% in December, well beyond market expectations of a 0.3% drop, while November's data was revised down to a 0.2% growth from the 0.8% increase previously estimated.
• In the US, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to have deteriorated to 55.0 in February from 56.4 in January.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains its bearish tone, with 1.1765 low at risk

The EUR/USD is in a bearish correction, with technical indicators in the 4-hour chart showing a neutral-to-bearish trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line flattens near the Signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady below the 50 line, at levels consistent with a moderate bearish momentum.

The pair has found support in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late January rally, at 1.1772, and the January 20 and 22 highs above 1.1765. Below these levels, the next target is the January 21 lownear 1.1670.

On the upside, the pair should break Wednesday's high, at 1.1838, and Monday's high, at 1.1874, to confirm a trend shift.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Gold attracts strong dip buyers on Friday following an Asian session decline to a four-day low.
• A turnaround in the risk sentiment and Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
• The USD preserves its recent strong recovery gains and limits the upside for the XAU/USD pair.

Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to an intraday positive bias through the first half of the European session on Friday, though it remains below the $4,900 mark amid mixed cues. A turnaround in the global risk sentiment drives flow toward traditional safe-haven assets and acts as a tailwind for the commodity ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks. Furthermore, bets on more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, bolstered by signs of weakness in the US job market, turn out to be other factors supporting the non-yielding yellow metal.

Adding to this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling provides an additional lift to the precious metal. Meanwhile, the White House said that diplomacy is US President Donald Trump's first choice for dealing with Iran, though it warned that he has military options at his disposal. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and further underpins the safe-haven Gold. However, expectations that the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be less dovish might cap the non-yielding yellow metal, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold remains supported by flight to safety and modest USD weakness

• Asian stocks extended losses into a second day as a selloff on Wall Street intensified amid a global rout in tech equities. Adding to this, prospects for lower interest rates in the US assist the non-yielding Gold to reverse an Asian session slide to the $4,655 area on Friday.
• According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The bets were reaffirmed by this week's US data, which pointed to weakness in the labor market.
• The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute reported on Wednesday that private-sector employers added 22K new jobs in January. This marked a notable decline from the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 37K and missed estimates of a 48K rise.
• Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Thursday revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 6.542 million, compared to the previous month's downwardly revised print of 6.928 million.
• Furthermore, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31 from the previous week’s 209K. The reading was also higher than estimates for a rise to 212K.
• Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee for the Fed Chair if he had expressed a desire to hike interest rates. Trump added that there was not much doubt that the US central bank would lower rates.
• The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that diplomacy is Trump's first choice for dealing with Iran, and he will wait to see whether a deal can be struck at high-stakes talks on Friday amid differences over the agenda, keeping geopolitical risks in play.
• Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. This, along with comments from influential FOMC members, would drive USD demand and the XAU/USD pair.

Gold needs to find acceptance above $4,900 to back the case for further gains

The overnight failure to build on momentum beyond the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors bearish traders. The subsequent fall, however, finds decent support near the 200-period SMA, warranting some caution. Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA remains above the 200-period SMA, which continues to rise, sketching a mixed backdrop and keeping a consolidative bias within the broader uptrend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds below the Signal line near the zero level. Its negative but contracting histogram suggests fading bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 45 (neutral). Near-term traction would improve on a close back above the 50-period SMA at 5,026.76, with that level acting as initial resistance, whereas failure to stabilize risks a drift toward the 200-period SMA at 4,691.87, which serves as dynamic support.

A MACD move back above the Signal line and into positive territory, alongside an RSI break through 50, would bolster the recovery; otherwise, momentum remains capped, and price could continue consolidating between these averages.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• EUR/GBP fails to find acceptance above 0.8700 and dips to the 0.8690 area.
• The pair is on track for its first weekly appreciation in the last two months.
• ECB-BoE monetary policy divergence boosted the Euro on Thursday.

The Euro (EUR) failed to hold above 0.8700 against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday and pulled back to session lows near 0.8685 in the early European session. The pair, however, remains on track to close its first positive week in two months, fuelled by the ECB-BoE policy divergence.

The Bank of England (BoE) left its Repo Rate unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected, on Thursday, but in a closer-than-expected call, with four policymakers voting for a rate cut, instead of the two expected by the market.

Beyond that, the bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, showed confidence that inflation will reach the 2% target sooner than expected, which suggests that more rate cuts are in the pipeline.

The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as well, but President Christine Lagarde stuck to the message that monetary policy is in a “good place” and downplayed the risk to inflation from a strong Euro, hinting at steady interest rates for the foreseeable future. The Euro rallied nearly 0.7% on Thursday following the central bank decisions.

The pair is trimming some gains on Friday following downbeat German Industrial Production figures. Data released by Destatis showed that factory output fell 1.9% in December, well beyond the 0.3% consensus decline, and November’s figures have been revised down to a 0.2% growth, from previous estimations of a 0.8% increase.

• The Pound Sterling bounces back against its major currency peers, recovering some of the previous day’s losses.
• A higher-than-expected number of BoE members supporting an interest rate cut on Thursday weighed on British currency.
• The US Dollar retraces as soft US labor market data supports dovish Fed bets.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) regains ground against its major currency peers on Friday after a sharp fall the previous day, which was driven by the Bank of England’s (BoE) signal that there is a high chance of an interest-rate cut in the near term.

In the monetary policy announcement on Thursday, the BoE unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with a 5-4 vote split. The BoE was widely expected to maintain the status quo, but the number of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members supporting keeping rates unchanged was lower than the seven expected by markets.

Regarding the monetary policy outlook, the BoE reiterated that the policy will remain on a “gradual downward path”, while expressing confidence that inflationary pressures will return to the 2% target “ahead of the schedule expected in November”. Governor Andrew Bailey refrained from setting a timeframe for the next interest-rate cut and declined to endorse 3.25% as a terminal rate, a level that neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth.

Still, markets quickly priced in a higher likelihood of a near-term cut. The Pound Sterling lost 0.8% on the day against the US Dollar (USD), with the GBP/USD pair touching a two-week low.

In Friday’s session, investors will pay close attention to BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s comments in a National MPC Agency briefing scheduled at 12:00 GMT for further details about the BoE's interest-rate outlook. Pill was one of five MPC members who voted to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling rises against US Dollar, US NFP in spotlight

• The Pound Sterling trades 0.3% higher to near 1.3570 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair recovers after posting a fresh weekly low near 1.3500.
• A slight corrective move in the US Dollar after a week-long rally has also supported the pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.15% to near 97.80.
• The US Dollar has come under pressure as traders have raised bets supporting an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its Marchmonetary policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next month by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%-3.50% has advanced to 22.7% from the 9.4% seen on Monday.
• Dovish Fed prospects have increased after the latest batch of United States (US) job market-related data showed continued weakness in the labor demand. The US JOLTS Job Openings report for December showed on Thursday that employers posted lower job vacancies – at 6.542 million against 6.928 million in November.
• ADP reported on Wednesday that the private sector created 22K jobs in January, less than the 37K added in December.
• For more cues on the current state of the US labor market, investors will focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, which will be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD aims to return above 20-day EMA

GBP/USD gains to near 1.3568 as of writing. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has softened to 1.3591 after a steady ascent, with price holding just beneath it and dampening immediate upside traction.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 (neutral) confirms waning momentum from prior overbought readings.

The flattening 20-day EMA signals consolidation in the near term, though its elevated level still frames the upward trend bias. A decisive daily close back above 1.3591 could extend gains toward the February 4 high of 1.3733, while repeated rejection would keep the pair range-bound.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• The Indian Rupee extends correction against the US Dollar after the RBI’s policy decision.
• The Indian central bank kept the Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
• Accelerating dovish Fed expectations have put some pressure on the US Dollar.

The Indian Rupee (INR) falls sharply against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon trading hours in India on Friday. The USD/INR pair recovers to near 90.85, even as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement has held the Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.

The RBI was expected to maintain the status quo as it reduced the Repo Rate by 125 basis points (bps) in 2025, as price pressures have rebounded in the past few months, and the announcement of trade deals with the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) has lifted growth prospects. The Indian central bank has maintained a “neutral” stance on the monetary policy outlook, citing that India’s economy is in a “good spot” even as global uncertainties remain “elevated”.

On the economic outlook, the RBI expects higher-than-projected real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the next two quarters on the back of trade deals, and said that fresh GDP projections will be provided in the April policy meeting.

The Indian Rupee outperformed in the past few days, following the confirmation from India and the United States (US) that both will reduce tariffs. On Monday, US President Donald Trump said through a post on Truth Social that tariffs on imports from New Delhi will be lowered to 18%, from 50% prior, and there will be zero tariff charged on exports from Washington to India, which was later acknowledged by Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi.

The event led to a sharp increase in the Indian Rupee, strong demand for Indian stocks, and a significant inflow of foreign funds into the Indian equity market. However, the lack of follow-up buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) is weighing on market sentiment.

According to data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE), FIIs turned out to be net sellers on Thursday, offloading their stake worth Rs. 2,150.51 crore. On Tuesday, a day after the US-India trade truce, FIIs bought shares worth Rs. 5,236.28 crore.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Soft US job data supports dovish Fed speculation

• The US Dollar struggles to extend its week-long rally on Friday as prospects of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates have improved, following a string of weak labor market data.
• At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 97.85. Still, the DXY is close to its weekly high of 97.98 posted on Thursday.
• The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 22.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%-3.50% in the March policy meeting, up from 9.4% seen on Wednesday.
• The US JOLTS Job Openings data for December showed on Thursday that employers posted 6.542 million fresh jobs, significantly lower than estimates of 7.2 million and the previous reading of 6.928 million.
• On Wednesday, the ADP reported that the private sector created 22K jobs in January, fewer than 37K in December.
• A majority of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have been expressing concerns over weak labor market conditions, citing the need for more interest rate cuts to support the same.
• For more cues on the current state of employment, investors will focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, which will be released on Wednesday. The data has been delayed due to a partial federal shutdown, which resumed on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR bounces back to near 20-day EMA

USD/INR jumps to near 90.85 at the press time. The pair recovers to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 90.95.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 50 (neutral), indicating buying interest at lower levels.

As long as the spot remains under the 20-EMA, rallies could stall, and the pair would continue to test lower levels. A recovery through the 20-EMA at 90.9282 would improve tone and open room for stabilization, while failure to reclaim it would preserve downside risk.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

The report by Nordea, authored by Jan von Gerich, discusses the recent rebound of the USD against the EUR and JPY. Despite the rebound, the report maintains a bearish outlook for the USD in the long term as investors seek alternatives.

Recent USD movements and market outlook

"Such moves once again suggest that the USD is not on the verge of collapse and worries towards the status of the USD can ease as fast as they arise."

"That said, we continue to think the USD will weaken further going forward, as investors continue to seek alternatives to the USD, even if such a moves will not take place on a one-way street."

"We maintain our core views of no rate moves from either the Fed or the ECB this year, while we continue to expect longer rates to creep higher."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)