Forex News

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights that Thailand’s financial markets, particularly the Thai Baht (THB) and equities, are under pressure due to vulnerability to Middle East conflict-related commodity shocks. The report notes that upside inflation risks from the Iran war have likely closed room for further Bank of Thailand (BoT) easing, with markets pricing an unchanged policy rate for at least six months.

Baht under pressure as policy constrained

"Thailand’s financial markets remain under pressure, with the Thai baht (-5.3%) the worst-performing currency in the ASEAN-6 region month-to-date, while the benchmark equity index also lost ground (-5.8%). The underperformance reflects the economy’s high vulnerability to severe commodity disruptions propagating from the Middle East conflict. Downward pressures on financial markets are unlikely to ease meaningfully without a credible geopolitical de-escalation."

"The resulting stagflationary effects of Middle East tensions on Thailand’s economy pose a policy dilemma for the Bank of Thailand (BoT). Like its global peers, the BoT is assessing the duration and severity of the supply shock stemming from the Iran war, which remains highly uncertain. Upside inflation risks have likely closed the room for further monetary easing to support a lagging economy and weak credit conditions."

"Considering that the BoT just cut its policy rate to 1.00% in February, we think it is unlikely to reverse course in the near term, instead choosing to monitor whether price pressures broaden beyond energy and fertiliser price shocks, leading to higher inflation expectations and second-round effects."

"Thai fixed income markets are pricing in an unchanged policy rate for at least the next six months, but sustained elevated commodity prices driven by a prolonged Iran war would raise the market’s expectations of a potential BoT rate hike."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, via Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, notes that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept the RRP (Reverse Repurchase Rate) rate at 4.25% in an off-cycle meeting as supply-driven inflation and Middle East risks intensify. The bank expects a prolonged policy pause, with core inflation and second-round effects guiding decisions and fiscal policy taking a larger role.

BSP seen on prolonged policy pause

"In view of the fluid situation and uncertainty over the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict, we maintain a cautious stance and continue to expect no further RRP rate changes for the time being."

"Persistently weak domestic demand alongside elevated living costs supports the case for a prolonged policy pause, with fiscal measures likely to play a larger role in mitigating the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict."

"In sum, we expect the BSP to maintain a meeting-by-meeting approach while closely monitoring external developments."

"During the post-meeting briefing, the BSP Governor did not rule out the possibility of additional off-cycle meetings should the Middle East conflict escalate and pose more immediate economic risks."

"He also noted that the BSP stands ready to inject liquidity into the financial system if needed and could further reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), potentially to around 2.00%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Silver rebounds after losses but remains capped below $70.00.
• RSI improves toward neutral, hinting at potential short-term recovery.
• Break below $66.73 exposes downside toward $61.00 weekly low.

Silver (XAG/USD) price turns positive on Friday after posting back-to-back bearish sessions, as heightened tensions in the Middle East decreased the white metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting traders to turn to the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, buyers emerged, pushing XAG/USD higher and driving it near the $70.00 figure, up 2.70%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver price seems poised to consolidate further after falling below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains above the spot price as a key resistance level at $73.66.

Bears remain in charge, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though the index has been trending upwards towards its neutral level, which, once pierced, could push Silver prices higher.

For bulls to regain control, XAG/USD must clear the $70.00 figure, though they would gather further traction clearing the 100-day SMA at $73.66. In that outcome, the next resistance would be the March 3 daily low, turned resistance at $77.98, ahead of the 20-day SMA at $78.63.

Conversely, the trend lower will resume if sellers clear the March 26 low of 66.73, which could drive XAG/USD towards the current week’s low of $61.02.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Volkmar Baur say China’s industrial profits surged early in 2026, led by AI-related electronics, but this strength predates the recent energy shock. With higher Oil prices now squeezing downstream margins and ending producer-price deflation via cost-push inflation, they argue the PBoC is unlikely to allow a strong CNY appreciation that could further hurt exporters.

Energy shock complicates currency stance

"This energy shock could act as a double-edged sword."

"This results in a two-speed economy where upstream energy giants hoard profits at the expense of the broader factory floor."

"While the end of the deflationary drag removes a persistent structural headwind, the downstream margin squeeze leaves the PBoC walking a tightrope."

"This makes it even more unlikely that the PBoC will let the CNY appreciate strongly this year."

"While a stronger CNY might make imported energy a little less costly and hence deliver some respite from the cost push, it would probably hurt exporters even more as they would lose competitiveness in international markets."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)