Forex News
- USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on the overnight recovery gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
- The US-Iran statement benefits the safe-haven USD, while bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoC/FOMC decisions.
The USD/CAD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 1.3700 mark, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid a combination of diverging forces. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks continues to benefit the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and supports spot prices. However, bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the currency pair.
Hopes for a revival of US-Iran peace talks receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy's planned visit to Pakistan. Furthermore, media reports suggest that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's new proposal on resolving the war and reopening the strategic waterway, but would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and continues to benefit the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran's restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to dismantle its entire nuclear program. This keeps Crude Oil prices elevated near the highest level in over two weeks and keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair.
Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of key central bank events. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its policy decision later during the North American session, and will be followed by the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants will look for fresh cues about the central banks' future policy path, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and determine the next leg of a directional move.
Economic Indicator
BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Read more.Next release: Wed Apr 29, 2026 13:45
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 2.25%
Previous: 2.25%
Source: Bank of Canada
The US officials said that President Donald Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
The report stated that Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. The source added that Trump believed that his other options, including resuming bombing or walking away from the conflict, carried more risk than maintaining the blockade.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.08% on the day at $96.50.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said on Wednesday that “the first quarter measures of core inflation have remained stable within the target band of 1–3%.”
“The Monetary Policy Committee continues to keep a close watch on developments in the Middle East and incoming data,” she further noted.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, NZD/USD is down 0.27% on the day at 0.5870, helped little by these above comments.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.18% | 0.18% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.21% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.22% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.19% | 0.20% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.19% | 0.02% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
- The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.
GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.
However, the GBP/USD pair maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.
The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.00% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/JPY weakens to near 114.50 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Australia’s CPI inflation rose to 4.6% YoY in March, softer than expected.
- BoJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April policy meeting on Tuesday.
The AUD/JPY cross declines to around 114.50 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the release of the Australian inflation report. Traders brace for Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is due later on Friday.
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that the country’s CPI inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March from 3.7% in February, driven largely by a fuel shock from the Middle East conflict. This figure came in softer than the expectations of 4.7%. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI rose 1.1% in March, compared to the previous reading of 0%.
The Aussie attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the softer-than-expected inflation data. However, a tight labor market and stronger-than-expected growth in late 2025 have supported expectations for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in May. This, in turn, could help limit the AUD’s losses.
On Japan’s front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 0.75% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected.
According to the policy statement, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in accordance with developments in the economy, prices, and financial markets. It said wages and prices may face upward pressure more than what the output gap suggests. The BoJ will scrutinise the timing and pace of policy adjustment with a close eye on economic and price impact from Middle East war developments.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD attracts some sellers following the release of Australian consumer inflation figures.
- Geopolitical uncertainties underpin the safe-haven USD and further exert pressure on the pair.
- Hawkish RBA bets should limit losses for the Aussie as traders keenly await the FOMC decision.
The AUD/USD pair continues with its struggle to conquer the 0.7200 mark and drifts lower following the release of Australian consumer inflation figures during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices slide to the 0.7170 area in the last hour, though the downside potential seems limited ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision later today.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% in Q1, lifting the annual rate to 4.1%. Additional details revealed that the Trimmed Mean CPI rose climbed 0.3% during the January-March period and 3.5% over the year. In the absence of a major surprise from the inflation data, the Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers amid the cautious market mood due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
Meanwhile, the latest data does little to dampen hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. In fact, traders are pricing in a greater chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at the upcoming RBA meeting in May. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, offers some support to the AUD/USD pair and helps limit the downside. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision, due later today.
Investors will look for cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path amid worries that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflationary pressures. In the meantime, the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks and a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz might continue to underpin the USD's reserve currency status. This should cap the AUD/USD pair and warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of a one-month-old uptrend.
Economic Indicator
Quarterly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 29, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 4.1%
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 3.6%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.
Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 4.6% year-over-year (YoY) in March, compared to a 3.7% increase reported in the previous reading, the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday.
The market consensus was for 4.7% growth in the reported period.
The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for March rose 0.3% and 3.3% on a monthly and and annual basis, respectively. The monthly Consumer Price Index came in at 1.1% in March, compared to the previous reading of 0%.
AUD/USD reaction to Australia's Consumer Price Index data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers following the Australia's CPI report. The AUD/USD pair is losing 0.15% on the day to trade at 0.7170, at the press time.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.03% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.17% | -0.01% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.18% | -0.01% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.17% | -0.05% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published at 23:32 GMT on Tuesday as a preview of the Australia’s CPI inflation report
The Australia monthly CPI overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish its data for March on Wednesday at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to see a rise of 4.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.7% in February.
The CPI measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards.
How could the Australia monthly CPI affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the Australia monthly CPI data. The pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If data comes in hotter than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the 0.7200 psychological level. The next resistance level emerges at the April 17 high of 0.7222, en route to the weekly high of May 30, 2022 at 0.7283.
To the downside, the April 27 low of 0.7131 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 0.7100, round figure. The next contention level is located at the March 13 low of 0.6980.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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