Forex News
- WTI drops more than 3% after failing to clear the 200-day SMA at $73.35.
- The technical bias remains bearish despite signs of improving near-term momentum.
- Immediate support lies at $67, while a break above the 200-day SMA could pave the way toward the $80 psychological level.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil edges lower on Thursday, erasing all of the previous day's gains as traders reassess the supply risks stemming from renewed US-Iran tensions. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $71.75, down 3.77% on the day.
Crude Oil prices surged earlier this week after the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes, raising fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could once again face disruptions.
However, markets see the latest flare-up as unlikely to escalate into a full-blown war and expect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to continue to recover.
From a technical perspective, Thursday's decline follows a rejection at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $73.35, which acts as immediate resistance.
WTI also remains well below the 100-day SMA around $86.91, suggesting sellers retain the upper hand despite signs of improving momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from near-oversold levels to around 40.20 but remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating bullish momentum is still limited.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, pointing to early recovery attempts that remain capped by key overhead resistance.
On the upside, a break above the 200-day SMA at $73.35 could pave the way for a move toward the $80.00 psychological resistance level, followed by the 100-day SMA near $86.91.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $67.00. A break below this level could reopen the path toward the $60.00 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold is boosted by falling Oil prices, as this triggers a Fed rate repricing.
- Lower Treasury yields help Gold recover from weekly lows.
- CPI, PPI and Warsh's testimony shape the next policy catalyst.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances during the North American session on Thursday, up over 1.30% as the US Dollar (USD) retreats due to falling Oil prices amid easing tensions in the Middle East. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,132 after bouncing off weekly lows of around $4,021 hit on Wednesday.
XAU/USD rises as Middle East tensions ease, pressuring Dollar
The US-Iran conflict grabbed the headlines during the last two days as both parties exchanged attacks, threatening to derail negotiations that had been scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday before the last escalation. Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, reclaiming the $ 75.00-per-barrel barrier, but retreated on Thursday.
The jump in energy prices grew speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs to tame already high inflation near 4.2% as reported in May. Now eyes turn to next week, with the release of inflation data on the consumer and producer sides, along with the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the US Congress.
Fed expected to rise in September
Worth noting that the Fed’s last meeting minutes showed a slightly hawkish central bank, as most officials see a scenario for a rate hike, but chose to hold interest rates. As of writing, money markets are pricing in a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.
New York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation is still "far too high" and emphasized the importance of considering energy prices when shaping monetary policy. He reaffirmed the central bank’s goal to bring inflation down to 2%, underlining that policy decisions "must remain” guided by data.
Bullion buyers are capitalizing on falling US Treasury yields, as the 10-year T-note is down five basis points at 4.529%. This is weighing on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is down 0.21%.
The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 100.85, near weekly lows of 100.78.
The drop in US yields is a consequence of the dip in Oil prices. An escalation of the Middle East conflict could trigger a recovery and weigh on Gold prices, which, despite benefiting from inflationary scenarios, tend to edge lower amid high-interest-rate environments.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims and housing data.
HSBC reduces Gold price forecast
On Thursday, HSBC lowered its average Gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,560 and $4,925, from previous estimates of $4,864 and $5,000.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold recovers $4,100, eyes on $4,300
Gold remains bearishly biased, despite posting a two-day peak at $4,138. In the short term, momentum has turned bullish, but if buyers want more reassurance that the downtrend has finished, they must push bullion prices past a downsloping resistance trendline at around $4,190-$4,215.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bearish, is closing to the 50-neutral level, which, once pierced, would show that buyers are gaining traction.
If XAU/USD clears $4,200, the next resistance is at $ 4,300. On further strength, the next stop is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,362. Above is the 50-day SMA at $4,492 ahead of $4,500.
Downwards, Gold must drop below the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement. They see support from a repriced Bank of England (BoE) rate path following the latest Oil rally and describe GBP/USD’s recovery as increasingly entrenched as it attempts to break above 1.3400 and trades within a 1.3350–1.3450 range.
Pound sentiment improves on policy repricing
"The pound is up fractionally vs. the USD and is a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Thursday’s NA session with focus still largely centered on broader developments in the absence of high-level domestic releases."
"The recent recovery in sentiment remains important, signaling market confidence in the aftermath of PM Starmer’s June 22 resignation announcement."
"Fundamentally, the outlook for relative central bank policy is providing additional support as markets reprice the BoE’s rate path in light of the latest rally in oil prices."
"Neutral/bullish—the GBP’s recovery is looking even more entrenched as it stages its first meaningful attempt at breaking above recent resistance around 1.3400 and levels that roughly correspond to the 50 and 200 day MA’s."
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports that recent Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness is moderating, partly due to Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) guidance that banks execute large USD sell orders immediately, bringing forward natural supply. However, foreign equity selling and dividend-related USD demand still restrain recovery, with USD/TWD two-way moves likely.
Upside momentum pauses as USD supply emerges
"Recent weakness in TWD shows tentative signs of moderation. Part of the moderation may reflect the earlier CBC guidance for banks to execute large USD sell orders on the day received, rather than delaying or staggering them."
"This could have helped bring forward natural USD supply and temper the pace of TWD weakness."
"Still, the broader flow backdrop has not turned decisively positive, with foreign equity selling (week-to-date USD4.3bn) and dividend/remittance-related USD demand potentially still restraining the pace of TWD recovery."
"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell from overbought conditions. 2-way trades likely with risk of pullback."
"Resistance at 32.22 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 32.50/60 levels. Support at 31.95, 31.78 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) navigated a narrow range on Thursday, building on the previous day’s losses and briefly reaching multi-day lows. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions continued to make the rounds, while investors seemed to have largely ignored the cautious tone in the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 10:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) had kept the bearish tone for the second straight day on Thursday, although it managed to bounce off earlier lows and dispute the 101.00 region afterward. Next on tap on the USD docket will be the release of the always-relevant inflation figures tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 14.
EUR/USD has clinched its second consecutive daily advance on Thursday, although gains appear to have met a tough nut to crack around 1.1450. Final inflation data in Germany are due alongside the speech by the ECB’s Vujcic.
GBP/USD could not sustain the early move to three-week tops around 1.3430, coming under pressure and challenging once again the 1.3400 neighbourhood. The next event across the Channel will be the publication of the BRC Retail Sales Monitor on July 14.
The USD/JPY’s weekly recovery has stalled on Thursday amid renewed downside bias in the Greenback and steady FX intervention concerns. Producer Prices will be the sole release in the 'Land of the Rising Sun'.
AUD/USD has added to Wednesday’s small advance and approached the 0.6950 zone, always on the back of fresh selling interest hurting the buck. Data-wise in Oz, Westpac will publish its Consumer Confidence gauge on July 14.
USD/CAD has slipped back toward the 1.4150 zone, the lower end of its current multi-day consolidative phase, down for the fourth day in a row. Wrapping up the week, the Canadian labour market report will take centre stage.
Prices of the barrel of WTI reversed five consecutive daily advances, returning to the $72.00 mark per barrel and below its critical 200-day SMA.
Prices of Gold have left behind three straight daily losses and reclaimed the area beyond the $4,100 mark per troy ounce, always amid fresh weakness in the US Dollar and persistent geopolitical jitters.
Societe Generale strategists note the Korean Won (KRW) has become Asia’s best performer in early H2, rallying nearly 2.8% as USD/KRW drops from around 1,550 to near 1,500. They link gains to FX conversion flows tied to SK Hynix ADRs and expectations of a 25 bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75%, following a weak first half for KRW.
Won rally driven by flows and policy
"Elsewhere in EM, the KRW has emerged as Asia’s best performer in early 2H, with a gain of nearly 2.8% (spot). The sharp drop from around 1,550 in early July to near 1,500 coincided with profit taking in the KOSPI."
"We recently highlighted the shift in the FX regime from one driven primarily by trade balances to one increasingly influenced by portfolio flows, resulting in a more pronounced inverse correlation between the KRW and KOSPI amid concerns of frothy semiconductor valuations incl Samsung and SK Hynix."
"Paradoxically, the earlier outperformance of the KOSPI had weighed on the KRW as foreign investors trimmed equity exposure to manage concentration risk. The relationship appears less symmetrical during equity corrections. Recent KRW gains have been linked to FX conversion flows associated with the ADR share of SK Hynix."
"Domestically, the KRW has also found support from expectations that the BoK will raise rates by 25bp to 2.75% next week Thursday."
"The rebound follows a difficult 1H when the KRW, alongside the IDR, THB and INR, ranked among the region’s weakest currencies, contrasting with the resilience and safe haven status of the CNY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING's Chief Economist Lynn Song notes that the CNY has been one of the strongest performers in 2026, even against a firm Dollar backdrop. Song tightens its USD/CNY forecast band to 6.67–6.92 for the rest of the year, citing PBoC-driven currency stability, strong Chinese exports, a robust current account surplus and expectations of a narrowing US-China yield spread.
CNY resilience and revised band
"The CNY has been one of the top performers so far in 2026. With upside risks increasingly reflected in current valuations, we are narrowing and modestly lowering our forecast range to 6.67–6.92 for the remainder of the year."
"Will the CNY outperformance repeat in the second half? This is probably a more dollar-centric rather than CNY-centric question. The dollar-weakening trend would likely result in the CNY underperforming other currencies."
"With the PBOC holding fixings near 6.80 over the past month — after earlier, more gradual downward moves — that level now looks like a sensible midpoint for our forecast band for the second half of the year."
"As we enter the second half of the year, we tighten and nudge down our USD/CNY forecast band, revising it to 6.67-6.92."
"With markets already pricing in a hawkish Fed, modest PBOC easing, continued Middle East risks, and slowing Chinese growth, there might need to be substantial new catalysts to drive the CNY back toward the 7 level for the remainder of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Swiss Franc strengthens against the US Dollar after the Fed Minutes reveal divisions over the interest rate outlook.
- Rising tensions between the United States and Iran fuel inflation concerns and support demand for safe-haven assets.
- USD/CHF trades around 0.8065 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day.
USD/CHF extends its decline for a second consecutive day, trading around 0.8065 at the time of writing, losing 0.15% on Thursday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD) following the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes. The Minutes showed that policymakers remain divided over the future path of interest rates, with some expecting the policy rate to end the year near its current 3.6% level, while others believe an additional rate hike may be necessary before year-end.
This uncertainty over the monetary policy outlook is weighing on the US Dollar, despite resilient US economic data. The latest figures from the Department of Labor showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K in the week ending July 4 from 217K previously, while Continuing Jobless Claims edged slightly higher to 1.814M.
However, geopolitical tensions are limiting the Greenback's losses. Renewed friction between the United States (US) and Iran is fueling concerns over energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign a chance of more than 30% to a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, up from less than 20% a week ago. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that any further US military action would trigger retaliation and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control.
At the same time, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal. Rising inflation concerns and geopolitical risks are supporting demand for the Swiss currency, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reiterated that it remains ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to prevent excessive Swiss Franc appreciation and limit imported inflation.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.19% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -1.09% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.00% | -0.85% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.90% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.01% | -0.89% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.99% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.87% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 1.09% | 0.85% | 0.90% | 0.89% | 0.99% | 0.87% | 0.80% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.07% | -0.80% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret notes the Euro (EUR) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by a repricing of the European Central Bank (ECB) outlook toward renewed hawkishness and recovering yield spreads. They highlight markets now price about 35 bps of tightening by December, lifting fair value estimates for EUR/USD toward the mid to upper 1.14s despite only modest recent gains.
Euro aided by hawkish ECB repricing
"The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD as it performs in line with most of the G10 currencies in quiet overall trade."
"The outlook for relative central bank policy is offering the EUR support as market participants reprice the ECB outlook in light of renewed hawkishness and a resurgence in geopolitically-driven oil price gains."
"Markets are currently pricing in about 35bpts of tightening by December, a considerable increase over the past week or so. Yield spreads are showing signs of recovery and lifting fair value estimates of the EUR toward the mid/upper-1.14s."
"Bearish/neutral—the EUR’s recent modest recovery is important, however the tepid gains have offered little in terms of shifting momentum in a more material way. The RSI is recovering back toward neutral but still remains below the 50 threshold as it climbs into the mid-40s."
"We see limited near-term resistance ahead of 1.15 and we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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