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Brent is back near $80 and West Texas Intermediate near $77, which means the Oil market has handed back almost the entire premium it built over nearly four months of open war with Iran. The tape is treating this week's US-Iran memorandum as a finished peace: Blockade lifted, Strait of Hormuz reopening, Iranian barrels cleared to sell, equities at a record high while the President takes a victory lap on falling pump prices.

The problem is that the market ran this exact trade in April, priced the all-clear inside a single session, and got run over within hours when the people who can actually break the ceasefire were never asked to sign it. Nothing about the way this deal is built says the second attempt ends differently.

The all-clear got priced first

Since the fighting began on 28 February, Brent and WTI ran up more than 45%, with dated Brent cargoes printing above $120 at the peak as Hormuz traffic seized and Gulf loadings collapsed. That premium is now gone. Brent has shed roughly 8% on the week alone and sits in the low $80s, and crude has erased nearly all of its wartime gains, trading close to where it stood the day the first missiles flew.

Risk assets took the same cue, with US equities at a record high and the President crowing on Truth Social about tumbling crude and a record tape while writing off his critics as jealous or stupid. Read narrowly, the market is right: A deal exists, it is signed, and ships are moving. Read against what the deal actually binds, the de-risking looks early.

Open on paper, mined in the water

Start with the thing the entire move is pricing, a reopened Strait of Hormuz, the artery for roughly a fifth of the world's crude. It is open, but only at the edges. Tanker-industry trackers put the main central channel still closed, with an estimated 80 mines left to clear; traffic is threading the northern route inside Iranian waters and the southern route hugging Oman's coast, with US Central Command (CENTCOM) lifting port restrictions and maritime advisories steering ships to the Omani side to dodge the mines.

Even the flow that is moving is being metered by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has been openly capping vessel numbers to manage congestion. And Tehran is already fighting over the terms: Where Washington declared a toll-free opening, Iran says no such clause exists and that it will run the waterway on its own arrangements, inspections, services and security included. The supply relief the market has banked is therefore being delivered by Iran, at Iran's pace, reversible at Iran's word. That is not a normalised strait. It is a tap with Tehran's hand on it.

A two-party deal for a three-party war

Here is the part the price action is ignoring. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) is a bilateral document, 14 points, signed by President Trump at Versailles and by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran. The war it is meant to end is not bilateral. Its most dangerous front runs through Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hezbollah, and Israel never signed anything. The text calls for an end to the war on every front, Lebanon included; Israel's defence minister has said in plain terms that Israeli forces will hold the ground they have taken in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria indefinitely.

The gap is not academic, because Iran has already found the lever inside it. The technical talks meant to open in Switzerland today fell apart before they started, with Iran withholding its delegation over Israel's Lebanon campaign and demanding Israel withdraw first. So the 60-day clock that is supposed to squeeze Iran toward a nuclear settlement is a clock Iran can stop whenever Israel pulls a trigger Iran does not control. Three unbound actors, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran's own hardliners, can each break this, and the President's assurance that he can keep Israel in line landed hours before Israel ran its second-deadliest day of the war in Lebanon, with the government in Beirut counting 47 dead.

April already ran this experiment

The reason to distrust the round-trip is that the market has lived it. In early April, Washington announced a two-week ceasefire and crude cratered around 16% in a single session, Brent collapsing toward the low $90s on the same logic driving today's tape. Within hours Israel hit Beirut in what it billed as its heaviest strikes of the war, killing more than 350 people, and the truce came apart.

By early May it had broken outright: Brent jumped 6% in a day back above $110, WTI cleared $100, the Dow shed more than 500 points and the volatility bid came back. The market faded the war premium then and wore the reversal. It is fading it again now, from a lower base, into a deal whose very first procedural step has already failed. The serial-ceasefire count is the tell. The Lebanon truce alone has been struck, broken and renewed at least five times since April, and today's version landed only after one of the bloodiest days of the conflict and still carries no confirmation from the Israeli military or Hezbollah. A ceasefire that has to be re-announced this often is not peace. It is a pause with better public relations.

Where the lean sits

The tape has priced a clean 60-day glide to a permanent deal. The lean is that the premium is too cheap for a window three spoilers can blow up. $80 Brent is the level the market is defending, and the triggers higher write themselves: Any incident in Hormuz, any hard break in the Lebanon truce, or an Iranian walk from the nuclear track as the clock runs down. Each one points the tape back toward the $90s, and a real re-closure of the strait reopens the $100-plus regime the market has spent weeks unwinding.

The other side is honest too: If the side routes stay open, the mines come out, and next week's Washington meetings hold Lebanon together, the premium keeps bleeding toward the low $70s base that prevailed before the war. But risk-reward skews toward keeping some war optionality into the clock rather than selling the last of it near $80. The deal is signed. Whether it holds is being decided by the people who never signed it.

Brent Spot, daily chart

• USD/CAD pushed to a fresh 14-month high this week, dragging the Loonie to its weakest against the Greenback since early 2025.
• The slide defies firm Crude Oil prices; the Loonie's traditional link to Crude Oil has broken down and even turned negative.
• The real drivers are a widening Canada-US rate gap and a six-week slide in Gold.

The textbook calls the Canadian Dollar a petro-currency, which means that with a Middle East war keeping Crude Oil bid, the Loonie should be holding its own. Instead it spent this week sliding to a fresh 14-month low against the Greenback, capping a run in which the US Dollar has closed higher in six of the last seven weeks. The textbook is wrong, at least for now: the Loonie has quietly stopped trading like a Crude Oil proxy, with its weakness driven by two forces that have nothing to do with the price of a barrel.

A petro-currency in name only

For years the Loonie moved with the price of a barrel; that relationship has quietly inverted. The rolling correlation between daily moves in the currency and Crude Oil has turned negative in recent months, a clean break from the historical norm. In its place, a less obvious driver has taken over: Gold. Canada is a major bullion producer; with Gold down for six straight weeks and well off its recent record, that slide has become a genuine weight on the currency. The market has swapped one commodity anchor for another; traders still watching only the barrel have missed it.

Two central banks moving apart

The second force is the one doing most of the damage: a widening gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). The Fed held at 3.75% this month and revised its dot plot higher, with markets pricing a possible 2026 hike; the BoC, at 2.25%, is going nowhere. It held again this month, caught in a two-way bind between a soft domestic economy and fresh, energy-driven inflation, and has signalled no intention of moving. When one central bank is leaning toward hikes and the other is frozen, the rate spread does the talking; right now it points squarely against the Loonie. Speculative short positions on the currency have climbed to their highest in months as a result.

Outgunned, but not without a say

What makes the move striking is that this is not simply a story about Canada falling apart. The domestic picture is mixed rather than broken: a strong May jobs report sits alongside Friday's soft retail sales; the Loonie's slide owes more to relative positioning than to outright collapse. That also means the currency has a busier week ahead than the bears might like.

Canada's own May Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands Monday at 12:30 GMT. With inflation already running near 3% on elevated energy costs, a hot print would feed the BoC's inflation side and could lend the Loonie a rare bid; Governor Macklem then speaks Tuesday. The dominant event still sits south of the border: on Thursday at 12:30 GMT the US delivers its first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) third estimate alongside the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), with core PCE seen accelerating to 0.3% MoM. A hot US PCE widens the rate gap further and points USD/CAD higher still; only a genuinely hot Canadian CPI on Monday gives the Loonie much to fight back with.

Resistance: USD/CAD is pressing the 1.4200 handle after this week's run; a clean break opens 1.4250 and then 1.4300, levels last seen well over a year ago.

Support: Initial support sits near 1.4100, then 1.4050; only a move back below 1.4000 would suggest the Loonie has found real footing.

Bias: Higher for USD/CAD while the Fed-BoC gap widens and Gold stays heavy, meaning further Loonie weakness is the base case. The one caution is positioning: the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is deep in overbought after a near-vertical climb; a sharp but shallow pullback toward 1.4100 would not surprise. A hot US PCE next week is the catalyst most likely to push the pair on toward 1.4250.

USD/CAD hourly chart

• EUR/USD broke to a fresh multi-week low this week before steadying near a tentative floor.
• The slide came despite the ECB's first rate hike since 2023, a move forced by the energy shock rather than by strength.
• With the eurozone economy contracting, the Euro stays chained to broad Dollar direction into next week's US data.

The Euro did something this week that ought to be impossible: it fell in the same fortnight the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023. EUR/USD slid to a fresh multi-week low near 1.1400 before clawing back to a tentative floor around 1.1450; the lesson is that not every rate hike is a vote of confidence. The ECB tightened because an energy shock forced its hand, not because the eurozone economy is firing. That distinction is why the single currency cannot turn a hawkish central bank into a rally.

A hike that smells like surrender

Look at what the ECB actually did and the bind becomes obvious. It raised the deposit rate for the first time in nearly three years while simultaneously cutting its growth forecasts and lifting its inflation projections, an unambiguous stagflation signal. Euro-area inflation has climbed to its highest in nearly three years on surging energy costs tied to disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the bloc's economy contracted in the first quarter. Tightening into that mix is a defensive move; currency markets know the difference between a central bank hiking from strength and one hiking because it has no choice.

Out-hawked across the Atlantic

Even on the narrow question of rate differentials, the Euro is losing. The ECB paired its hike with no-preset-path guidance, which markets read as a one-and-watch rather than the start of a campaign; German Bund yields barely budged. The Federal Reserve (Fed), by contrast, held at 3.75% but revised its dot plot higher, pricing toward a hike of its own from a position of relative economic strength, with the US Dollar Index parked at a 13-month high. When both sides lean hawkish, the currency attached to the stronger economy and the firmer conviction wins; right now that is unambiguously the Greenback.

A bounce on a short leash

The near-term picture is the one part of the Euro story that favours the bulls, and only just. Price has carved out a tentative floor near 1.1450, with the hourly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) pushing into overbought after the bounce off the lows, a sign the immediate move is stretched. There is room for a corrective rally toward the 1.1500 area, though it stays on a short leash: the daily chart sits below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), clustered near 1.1600, with the broader trend still pointing lower.

A wall of ECB speakers and Tuesday's still-contractionary flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints will not change that calculus; whatever bounce the Euro manages is unlikely to survive a hot reading from next Thursday's US data, when the third estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) land together at 12:30 GMT.

Resistance: The 1.1500 area is the first test, then 1.1550; the heavier barrier is the 1.1600 zone, where the 50-day and 200-day EMA converge and any recovery would have to prove itself.

Support: The tentative floor near 1.1450 is the level bulls must defend. Below it sit the 1.1400 handle and this week's low; a clean break there reopens the downtrend.

Bias: Tactically neutral with scope for a short-term bounce toward 1.1500 while 1.1450 holds, but bearish on any longer horizon. The Euro remains a hostage to the Dollar; a hot US PCE next week is the most likely trigger to drag it back to 1.1400 and beyond. Only a soft US inflation print gives the bounce real legs.

EUR/USD hourly chart

• AUD/USD was knocked lower this week as a hawkish FOMC powered the US Dollar broadly higher.
• The RBA held this month, with above-target inflation keeping a further hike on the table.
• Wednesday's Australian CPI is the Aussie's best chance to trade on something other than the Dollar.

The Australian Dollar spent this week as a passenger in someone else's trade. A hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a surging US Dollar dragged the Aussie down to the 0.7000 handle, with the pair's sharp mid-week drop owing more to events in Washington than to anything out of Canberra. Yet the Aussie is not quite the pure risk-proxy it tends to get treated as. It carries a domestic inflation problem of its own; next week hands it a rare chance to trade on that rather than on the Greenback's momentum.

The RBA is not done being hawkish

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% this month, yet struck a far-from-dovish tone. Policymakers flagged that inflation remains elevated and has picked up materially, driven in part by higher fuel and commodity prices tied to the Middle East conflict, with pass-through into goods and services already visible. Several desks still see scope for additional tightening before any easing cycle begins; the central bank's own projections keep inflation above target into 2027. That is a meaningfully firmer footing than most of the Aussie's peers can claim.

Why the carry can't catch a bid

None of that has been enough to lift the currency, because the Aussie answers to more than its own rate story. It trades as a liquid proxy for both risk appetite and China, neither of which has helped: a stronger Dollar saps risk sentiment, while soft Chinese demand and a heavy Iron Ore market cap any rebound in Australia's terms of trade. The result is a currency with real domestic inflation pressure that still cannot pull away from the 0.7000 handle. As long as the Dollar owns the tape, the Aussie's better fundamentals stay academic.

Two home prints, then the Dollar

Next week finally gives the Aussie a domestic slate to trade. Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May lands on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, with the annual rate seen ticking up to 4.3% and the trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, in focus; a hot reading would revive hike bets and hand the currency a genuinely idiosyncratic reason to firm, even against a strong Dollar.

The May employment report follows on Thursday in the same early slot, after the prior month's surprise contraction in jobs; a rebound would reinforce the hawkish case. The complication is timing: that jobs print lands the same day the US delivers its first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) third estimate and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) at 12:30 GMT. A firm Australian double-header into a hot US PCE would leave the Aussie pulled in both directions; the Dollar leg usually wins that tug-of-war.

Resistance: The 0.7050 level is the first hurdle, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.7100 capping the broader pullback; the Aussie needs a close back above 0.7100 to argue the down-leg is over.

Support: The 0.7000 handle is the line that matters; it has so far held. A sustained break exposes 0.6950, then the 200-day EMA near 0.6900.

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish while price sits below 0.7100 and the Dollar dominates, but with a clear two-way risk next week. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near oversold leaves room for a bounce; a hot Australian CPI is the catalyst most likely to deliver one. A soft CPI into a firm US PCE points the pair back through 0.7000 toward 0.6950.

AUD/USD hourly chart

• XAU/USD posted a sixth consecutive week of lower or flat closes, extending a grinding retreat from its February record.
• The slide defies a live Middle East conflict and re-accelerating inflation, both of which should be bullish for bullion.
• The real driver is a hawkish Fed, whose firmer Dollar and rising real yields punish a zero-yield asset.

Gold is supposed to be the asset you want when the world looks dangerous, which makes this week's price action quietly remarkable. Bullion ended the week down close to 1.5%, its sixth straight week of lower or flat closes, even as a Middle East war ran into its fourth month and an unsigned ceasefire kept geopolitical risk firmly on the table. The metal that is meant to thrive on exactly this backdrop is instead grinding toward the $4,000 handle, well off the February record near $5,600. The explanation has almost nothing to do with fear and almost everything to do with the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The Fed is the only chart that matters

For all the geopolitical headlines, Gold has spent the past six weeks trading as a pure inverse of US real yields. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held at 3.75% in June but lifted its dot plot, with the median projection now carrying a hike bias and markets leaning toward a 2026 increase rather than the cuts they spent last year forecasting. Higher policy rates and firmer real yields lift the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays nothing; a US Dollar Index sitting at a 13-month high does the rest. In that frame, every bullish geopolitical impulse has been overwhelmed by a single bearish one.

Hot inflation, cold metal

The cruel twist for Gold bulls is that inflation is doing exactly what should help them while hurting them instead. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt above 4% YoY in May; the energy shock has pushed inflation expectations higher across the board. Ordinarily that is a buy signal for an inflation hedge. The catch is that the market trusts the Fed to crush hot inflation with higher rates, which turns the same data into both an inflation signal and a tightening signal. The tightening signal wins; Gold pays the bill.

Next week the data does the talking

Like every Dollar-sensitive asset, Gold now waits on next Thursday's data. At 12:30 GMT the US releases the third estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) alongside the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. For Gold, the logic is brutally simple: core PCE is already seen accelerating to 0.3% MoM from 0.2%; any print at or above that reinforces the hike pricing, drives real yields higher, and pushes the metal toward $4,000 and potentially through it.

A downside surprise is the bulls' clearest escape route, offering room for a relief bounce. The one wrinkle is positioning, with the hourly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) swung back toward overbought after the bounce off this week's low, a sign the immediate downside may pause before the next leg lower.

Resistance: The first ceiling is the $4,200 area; above it, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $4,365 and the 50-day EMA up around $4,500 mark the levels a genuine recovery would need to reclaim.

Support: The week's low near $4,120 is the immediate floor. Below it sits the $4,000 handle, the genuine line in the sand; a decisive break there opens air toward the high-$3,000s.

Bias: Bearish while price holds below the daily moving averages and the Fed keeps pricing hikes. The path of least resistance points at $4,000; a hot PCE next week is the catalyst most likely to take Gold through it. A soft inflation print is the only near-term argument for a bounce; even then, the downtrend stays intact.

XAU/USD hourly chart

• DXY printed a fresh 13-month high this week after a hawkish FOMC pushed markets toward pricing a 2026 rate hike.
• The move is driven by rate differentials, not a growth scare, as the Fed out-hawks a stalling field of peers.
• Next week's combined GDP and PCE print is the validation test for the rally.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) spent the back half of this week doing something most desks had written off six months ago: rallying on the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. The index pushed to a fresh 13-month high before easing back; the move owed less to safe-haven flight than to a cold read on rate differentials. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning hawkish at its June meeting, the Greenback has become the cleanest way to play the only major central bank still willing to tighten into an energy shock.

A yield gap, not a panic

Underneath the geopolitical noise, the Dollar's bid is a yield story. The Fed has parked itself in a higher-for-longer posture while the field around it has stalled or blinked. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) both held this week, with the Greenback taking its largest gains against the Pound and the Franc. Even the European Central Bank (ECB), which delivered its first hike since 2023, is tightening defensively into a contracting economy rather than a strong one; that distinction is the entire trade.

Warsh pulls the guidance rug

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first meeting to do less, not more. The Committee held at 3.75% as expected; the updated dot plot told the real story, with the rate projections revised higher across the board and the median now embedding a hike bias for the year. Warsh himself declined to signal the next move, leaning instead on the line that inflation has sat above target for years and that restoring price stability comes first. Markets took the hint and ran: pricing on CME FedWatch now leans toward a hike by the autumn, with inflation forecasts revised higher on the back of the Middle East conflict. A central bank that refuses to promise cuts, in a world where everyone else is cornered, is a powerful tailwind for its currency.

The number that settles it

Every bar of this rally is implicitly long the hawkish-Fed thesis, which means next week hands the Dollar its first real audit. Thursday delivers a rare double-header at 12:30 GMT: the third estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lands alongside the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The growth print is seen confirming 1.6%, down from the initial 2.0%; the spotlight therefore falls on PCE. Core PCE is already pencilled in to accelerate to 0.3% MoM from 0.2%, which means even an in-line print stamps reacceleration onto core inflation; an upside surprise, coming after May headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt above 4% YoY, would cement the hike pricing and send the index back to test its highs. A soft one would expose how much good news is already in the price.

Resistance: The 101.00 round figure caps the immediate upside, with this week's 13-month peak just above it; a clean break opens room toward 102.00.

Support: Initial support sits near 100.50, then the psychological 100.00 handle; below that, the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster near 99.00 marks where the trend would come into question. The hourly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is washed out near oversold, which argues the current dip is a pause rather than a turn.

Bias: Bullish while the index holds above 100.00 and the hawkish-Fed narrative survives next week's data. A hot PCE keeps the path toward 102.00 open; a downside inflation surprise is the one catalyst that turns this stretched-but-intact rally into a deeper pullback toward 99.00.

US Dollar Index hourly chart

The week ahead will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors digest the first Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and look ahead to the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, global PMI releases, and central-bank commentary.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 100.70 price zone on Friday after reaching a 13-month high of 101.13 earlier in the day. The Greenback rose sharply this week following the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and removing its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments” . A hotter-than-expected PCE report, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, could reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance and extend the upward USD's trend.

EUR/USD declined over 0.80% this week to the 1.1480 level amid a broadly strong US Dollar. The Eurozone calendar will keep its eyes on flash PMI data, which should give investors a clearer view of whether activity remains fragile across manufacturing and services. Germany will also be important, with flash PMIs, the Ifo Business Climate survey, and GfK Consumer Confidence due during the week. Any signs of weaker German business sentiment could weigh on the Euro, especially after ECB officials warned about uncertainty around energy prices, inflation transmission, and second-round wage effects.

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3230, with a strong weekly decline, after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers supporting a hike to 4.00%. Next week, the United Kingdom (UK) flash PMIs and final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be key for the Pound Sterling.

USD/JPY remains near intervention levels at 161.30, focused on the balance between Fed caution and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening bias. The BoJ recently raised interest rates to 1.00%, while officials continue to warn that inflation risks could require further action. Japan’s flash PMIs, Tokyo CPI, and comments from BoJ officials will be watched closely.

AUD/USD fell this week toward the 0.7020 level, a significant domestic test as Australia releases flash PMIs, monthly CPI, and labor market data. A stronger CPI print or resilient employment data could support the Aussie, while weaker numbers may leave AUD/USD vulnerable to renewed US Dollar strength.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles near the $4,155 level as geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the Middle East could limit downside for the precious metal.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell for a second consecutive week near $76.50 per barrel as the US-Iran agreed a peace deal, weighing on Oil prices. Markets will watch whether Oil flows continue to normalize, as lower energy prices could ease inflation fears and influence central-bank expectations.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, June 22

• ECB President Lagarde
• Fed’s Waller
• ECB President Lagarde

Tuesday, June 23

• ECB’s Lane
• BoC Governor Macklem
• ECB’s Elderson
• ECB’s Vujčić
• BoE’s Taylor
• BoE’s Dhingra

Wednesday, June 24

• ECB’s Nagel
• BoE’s Breeden
• ECB’s Cipollone
• BoE’s Dhingra

Thursday, June 25

• ECB’s Philip
• ECB’s Cipollone
• Fed’s Williams
• Fed’s Goolsbee

Friday, June 26

• ECB’s Nagel
• Fed’s Williams
• ECB’s Vujčić

Saturday, June 27

• ECB’s Schnabel
• RBA Governor Bullock

Central banks’ meetings and policy decisions to shape markets

No major Fed, BoE, BoJ, or RBA interest rate decisions are scheduled for the week, leaving investors focused on speeches, incoming data, and the market interpretation of the latest policy meetings.

• Silver breaks below 200-day SMA as sellers regain control.
• RSI remains bearish, though downside momentum begins losing steam.
• Break below $61.06 exposes $60.00 and $54.39 support levels.

Silver (XAG/USD) price tumbles for the third consecutive trading day, down over 3.32% on Friday, courtesy of broad US Dollar (USD) strength and rising US Treasury yields, which have aimed higher since Wednesday amid the Fed's hawkish tilt.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver price continued to trend lower after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69.11, which was tested three times this week, but buyers surrendered, and sellers are gaining the upper hand, pushing the white metal below $65.00.

Momentum shows that bears have continued to gain traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though it’s worth noting that sellers seem to be losing some steam.

For a bearish continuation, XAG/USD needs to clear the March 23 daily low of $61.06. Below this, the next support would be the $60.00 milestone, followed by November 13, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of the $50.00 mark.

Conversely, for XAG/USD to resume its uptrend, buyers must conquer the 200-day SMA at $69.11. Above this level, the next area of interest would be the $70.00 figure, followed by the 50-day SMA at $74.88.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CAD extends a clear uptrend as bulls target 1.4200.
• RSI near extreme overbought levels warns of pullback risk.
• Break above 1.4200 exposes 1.4273 and 1.4415 targets.

The USD/CAD pair rises during the North American session, up 0.27% on Friday and over 1.34% for the week, with the pair remaining upward-biased and set to test higher prices seen last year. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.4175, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.4131.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Price action shows a clear uptrend, with USD/CAD poised to test 1.4200 in the short term. Momentum is also extremely bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RS), which is above the overbought level of 70 and near an extreme at 86.45, indicating the pair is subject to a pullback.

For a bullish continuation, USD/CAD must clear 1.4200. A breach of the latter will expose April 9, 2025, at 1.4273, followed by April 1, 2025, at 1.4415.

On the flip side, if USD/CAD drops below 1.4150, sellers could test the psychological 1.4100 mark. Below this level is the June 11 daily high turned support at 1.4024, followed by the June 15 daily low of 1.3994. On further weakness, the next stop would be the June 10 swing low of 1.3899.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily

• AUD/USD trades sideways as hawkish Fed and RBA signals offset each other.
• A heavy slate of economic data next week puts the focus on the Australian CPI and the US PCE Price Index.
• Technically, AUD/USD remains under pressure, with the RSI below the neutral 50 mark and price below the 20-day SMA.

AUD/USD trades little changed on Friday as hawkish policy signals from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offset each other, keeping the pair range-bound despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7011 and remains on track for a weekly loss.

Earlier this week, both the Fed and RBA kept interest rates unchanged but signaled openness to rate hikes later this year amid persistent inflation as policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to their respective targets.

Meanwhile, easing tensions in the Middle East is providing some support to risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. Still, upside in AUD/USD could remain limited as traders await fresh economic data for clues on the future path of interest rates in both the United States and Australia.

Next week's economic calendar features Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labor market data, along with the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and the final reading of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Traders will also monitor preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys and the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) interest rate decision. The Australian Dollar is highly sensitive to Chinese economic data, given Australia's close trade ties with China.

Technical analysis:

On the daily chart, AUD/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias, with spot remaining below the Bollinger middle band, which corresponds to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7091. Although the pair remains comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6852, the failure to reclaim the 20-day SMA suggests sellers retain control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 remains below the neutral 50 mark, pointing to persistent bearish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 31 indicates the downtrend is gaining strength.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day SMA/Bollinger midline near 0.7091, with the upper Bollinger band around 0.7220 acting as the next hurdle. On the downside, immediate support is located near the lower Bollinger band around 0.6963, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6852. A decisive break below the latter would reinforce the broader bearish outlook.