Forex News
The United States (US) said airstrikes on Sunday aimed to "punish" Iran over the first US military deaths since renewed hostilities with the Islamic republic, Bloomberg reported.
Washington reported the death of another American service member, who was killed in northern Iraq during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone. US Central Command (CENTCOM) also said it has located unidentified remains in Jordan, where a separate Iranian attack left two US troops dead and one missing in action.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 6.77. In their 1–3 week view, they maintain a downside bias toward 6.7600 as long as strong resistance at 6.7820 remains intact. Over 1–3 months, they see tentative upside potential if key technical resistance is broken.
Short-term consolidation, medium-term downside bias
"24-HOUR VIEW: After USD fell as we expected on Wednesday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Our view was not wrong, as USD subsequently rose to 6.7781 and then fell to a low of 6.7653. Downward momentum continues to increase, and today, there is a chance for USD to test 6.7600. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 6.7780 (minor resistance is at 6.7720).” Our expectation did not materialise, as USD traded in a quiet manner between 6.7649 and 6.7753, closing little changed at 6.7734 (+0.07%). The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, which is expected to be between 6.7670 and 6.7780."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (15 Jul, spot at 6.7720), we highlighted that “downward momentum is increasing, and USD is likely to trade with a downside bias toward 6.7600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 6.7820 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying analyzes the latest Bank of Korea (BoK) decision, noting a hawkish shift as the base rate is raised to 2.75%. The report now anticipates a faster tightening cycle, with the policy rate reaching 3.25% by year-end 2026. Growth is expected to benefit from the AI-driven semiconductor sector, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected to overshoot target.
BoK signals accelerated tightening cycle
"The Bank of Korea raised the base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% at its July 16 meeting, marking the first rate hike since January 2023. The BOK maintained a hawkish stance and signaled that further rate increases are likely, although it provided no guidance on the timing of future moves."
"The BoK’s hawkish messaging suggests that the rate hike cycle could proceed faster than we previously anticipated. We had expected a total of 50bps of hikes in 2H26 (one in 3Q and one in 4Q)."
"We now expect a cumulative 75bps increase in 2H26, implying two additional 25bps hikes over the remaining three policy meetings this year (August, October, and November), bringing the policy rate to 3.25% by year-end."
"We do not expect significant upside surprises in real GDP growth during 2H26, as the current AI boom is likely to boost semiconductor export prices and corporate profitability more than export volumes or industrial output."
"However, we expect CPI inflation to continue rising and overshoot the BoK’s target, reaching around 3.5% YoY in 2H26, as energy cost pass-through effects persist and stronger export revenues and corporate profits translate into higher wages and demand-driven inflation pressures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver refreshes YTD low, keeping bearish structure firmly intact.
- RSI remains bearish, signaling path of least resistance lower.
- Break below $54.39 exposes $48.64; reclaiming $60 eases pressure.
Silver price recovered some ground on Friday, up 0.84%, but it is poised to finish the week down over 6.50%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $56.00 per troy ounce, after reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of $54.77.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal ended the week on the back foot as XAG failed to reclaim the $60.00 psychological barrier, which could’ve opened the door for a recovery and challenged the July 6 high at $63.28. Nevertheless, the downward market structure remains intact, and after refreshing yearly lows, it could open the door to testing the November 13, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39.
Momentum remains downward-biased as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
The first support is $55.00. Below lies the November 13, 2025, daily high-turned-support at $54.39, followed by the November 21, 2025 swing low of $48.64. On the other hand, if XAG/USD reclaims the $60.00 mark, expect a move towards the July 6 swing high at $63.28. On further strength, the next resistance would be $65.00, followed by the 50-day SMA at $68.01.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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