Forex News
- EUR/JPY breaks below 100-day SMA, confirming bearish technical shift.
- RSI turns lower as sellers target 183.00 support zone.
- Break below 183.00 exposes 200-day SMA and 180.81 low.
The Euro retreated on Wednesday against the Japanese Yen, down 0.08% amid growing speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange markets and also inflation in the producer side in Japan, exceeded estimates above the 3% threshold. The EUR/JPY cross-pair trades at 183.70 after reaching a daily high of 183.92.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows that bears are in charge. The EUR/JPY fell from around weekly highs near the 50-day SMA at 185.32 to current spot prices, diving below the 100-day SMA at 184.60, which exacerbated the drop below 184.00.
Momentum clearly shifted bearish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the EUR/JPY dives below 183.00, it would expose the 200-day SMA at 182.36. Once cleared, the next area of interest would be the latest cycle low of 180.81, the February 12 swing low.
Upwards, the chances are capped due to intervention fears. If EUR/JPY clears 184.00, it will expose the 100-day SMA, followed by 185.00. Above this area sits the 50-day SMA, followed by the June 17 daily high of 186.32.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.41% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | 0.08% | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.28% | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.16% | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.20% | -0.08% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.20% | -0.02% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD extended its decline on Wednesday and closed just above fresh lows for the move.
- Every attempt at a bullish turn has failed, with price stuck well below its key moving averages.
- A leadership vacuum at home and a bare data calendar leave Sterling at the mercy of a firmer Dollar and Thursday's US Core PCE.
GBP/USD spent Wednesday confirming what the daily chart has signalled for a week, that the Pound's attempted recovery has run out of road. Cable drifted lower through the session to a low just under 1.3150 before clawing back a little into the close, settling just above fresh lows for the move. The pressure is all on the Dollar, lifted broadly by a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has turned hawkish, and nothing on the UK side has been able to stand in its way.
The chart has already made the call
The daily chart is unambiguous, and not flattering. Price has broken below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA, which have converged almost exactly near the 1.3400 handle and now form a single thick band of resistance roughly 225 pips overhead. Beneath that wall there is little obvious support before the 1.3000 handle. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits only mid-range, nowhere near oversold, so the chart has room to extend lower before anything looks stretched.
A hawkish hold that bought Sterling nothing
Sterling's deeper problem is that even a hawkish central bank has not stemmed the slide. The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady last week, with two of its nine members voting for a hike, the sort of result that normally puts a floor under a currency. The Pound slid anyway, and with the next BoE decision not due until late July and only a couple of policymaker speeches this week, no fresh domestic catalyst is coming.
Westminster offers a vacuum, not a backstop
On top of that sits a political vacuum the market has learned to charge for. Keir Starmer's resignation has left a caretaker government in charge while Labour runs a leadership contest set to grind through the summer, with Andy Burnham the clear favourite to succeed him before Parliament returns in September. Until that resolves, no one is positioned to act decisively on the economy or the currency, and the uncertainty keeps a risk premium stapled to Sterling that a firm Dollar is happy to press.
Thursday's number is the only mover left
The only release heavy enough to move the pair this week is American, not British. Thursday at 12:30 GMT brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, with consensus at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, both a touch above the prior month. A firm number feeds straight into the hawkish Dollar trade and likely drags Cable toward the 1.3000 handle. With no domestic data to lean against, the risk is skewed lower, and only a soft print offers Sterling any relief.
Levels to watch
Resistance: The 1.3200 handle caps the immediate upside, and the converged moving averages near 1.3400 form the ceiling any genuine recovery would have to break first; nothing between the two argues for it.
Support: The 1.3150 area is the first shelf, with 1.3100 beneath it and the 1.3000 handle the obvious magnet should Thursday's data cooperate.
Bias: Lower. A broken chart, a firmer Dollar and a Britain offering neither a fresh catalyst nor a settled government leave Sterling nothing to rally on; a hawkish BoE hold already failed to change that. Rallies are for selling until price reclaims its moving averages.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY extended its grind higher on Wednesday, closing within touching distance of its highest level in more than three decades.
- A BoJ rate hike has failed to lift the Yen, out-hawked by a firmer Fed on the other side.
- Thursday delivers US Core PCE and Tokyo CPI back to back, the only catalysts left this week.
USD/JPY spent Wednesday grinding higher again, which by rights should not be happening. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate only last week, and a hike is meant to put a floor under a currency, not watch it slide toward generational lows. That the Yen keeps sinking regardless points straight at the Dollar side, where a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has just turned more hawkish is holding the rate gap brutally wide.
The gap swallowed the hike
The BoJ did its part, lifting rates to a 30-year high of 1.00%, but the market had long priced it in and the move bought the Yen nothing lasting. The reason is pure arithmetic: with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding near 3.75% and its dot plot now flagging a hike rather than a cut, the gap between the two policy rates still sits near 275 basis points. At that spread a quarter-point from Tokyo barely dents the carry trade, and the Yen's direction stays set in Washington.
What a hike could not do, Yentervention might
That the hike failed to help is precisely why the next risk to the trade is not monetary but political. With the BoJ unwilling to sprint and its rate move already shrugged off, the finance ministry becomes the only actor capable of jolting the pair, and with the Yen at its weakest in a generation, its warnings about disorderly moves are growing louder. The carry trade keeps looking like free money right up until Tokyo reaches for Yentervention. Every step higher only sharpens that asymmetry.
Thursday's double bill
The week comes down to Thursday, and it lands in two parts. At 12:30 GMT the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) prints, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with consensus at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, each a tick above the prior month. A hot number widens the gap that is already doing the damage and likely pushes the pair through 162.00; only a clear miss looks able to stall it.
The second leg comes at 23:30 GMT with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), which now reads differently after last week's move. A soft print near the recent 1.4% headline would tell the market the BoJ is in no rush to hike again, and even another move might not matter much, given how little the last one changed for the Yen.
Levels to watch
Resistance: The 162.00 handle is the immediate cap; a clean break opens room toward 163.00 with little in the way, though every leg higher stiffens the case for intervention.
Support: A pullback finds first footing near 161.50, with 161.00 below it; only a slide toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 159.50 would suggest the uptrend is finally tiring.
Bias: Higher. A hawkish Fed, a punishing rate gap and an uptrend that just shrugged off a BoJ hike all point the same way. The clearest threat to the long side is not the chart or the central bank but the finance ministry.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- USD/CHF refreshes YTD highs as rally extends six days.
- RSI enters overbought territory, signaling powerful bullish momentum persists.
- Break above 0.8200 exposes 0.8215 and 0.8300 resistance.
The USD/CHF extends its rally for the third straight day this week and refreshes year-to-date (YTD) highs, peaking at 0.8139, which is also an 11-month high. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8124, up 0.34%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF has been rallying for six days, and if it closes Wednesday’s session above 0.8100, bulls could reach the 0.8200 level rather sooner than later.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the pair is overbought, but it is short of the 80 level, considered the most extreme. When RSI is between 70 and 80, the uptrend is at its strongest; hence, readings above 80 are most precise for indicating market tops.
If USD/CHF clears 0.8200, the next resistance would be the June 19, 2025, daily high at 0.8215, ahead of 0.8250. A breach of the latter will expose 0.8300. On the other hand, if bears drive the pair below 0.8100, the next support would be the March 31 swing high of 0.8042. Below this level is 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.93% | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.47% | 1.58% | 1.69% | 0.60% | |
| EUR | -0.93% | -0.73% | -0.61% | -0.41% | 0.69% | 0.77% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.73% | -0.13% | 0.26% | 1.38% | 1.36% | 0.38% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 1.29% | 1.27% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.47% | 0.41% | -0.26% | -0.13% | 1.16% | 1.20% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -1.58% | -0.69% | -1.38% | -1.29% | -1.16% | -0.03% | -0.94% | |
| NZD | -1.69% | -0.77% | -1.36% | -1.27% | -1.20% | 0.03% | -0.94% | |
| CHF | -0.60% | 0.32% | -0.38% | -0.28% | -0.11% | 0.94% | 0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/SGD has drifted higher on broad US Dollar (USD) strength and softer risk sentiment, with daily momentum bullish and Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought. Softer Singapore Consumer Price Index (CPI) and easing domestic cost pressures reduce urgency for MAS tightening in July, and they expect Singapore Dollar (SGD) to stay relatively resilient but sees USD/SGD supported if the strong Dollar environment persists.
MAS seen patient as pair consolidates
"USD/SGD drifted higher overnight amid broad USD strength while risk sentiment softened due to sell-off in tech/AI-linked equities. Pair was last seen at 1.2970. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose into overbought conditions."
"Consolidation near the upper range likely to persist for now. Resistance at 1.2980 (76.4% fibo), 1.3030 levels. Support at 1.29 (61.8% fibo retracement of Dec high to 2026 low), 1.2840/50 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo). "
"The recent CPI report saw May headline and core inflation printed softer-than-expected at 1.8% and 1.4% YoY respectively. They came in below our house view forecast of 1.9% and 1.5% YoY. Higher food and retail and other goods inflation was mostly offset by lower services inflation. "
"Our economists noted that domestic cost pressures are tapering off – services unit labour costs are likely to rise at a slower pace this year as the nominal manpower wage growth moderates from last year with the cooling labour market conditions, whilst domestic consumer spending could also turn more cautious amid the economic uncertainty and higher price environment."
"With core CPI undershooting expectations and global energy prices easing off, our house now see less urgency for MAS to tighten at the upcoming MPC in July if the core inflation trajectory eases into 1H27."
"While SGD may retain relative resilience (vs peers), the SGD is not immune to higher US Treasury yields/ firmer USD. A strong USD environment if sustained, may still keep USD/SGD supported in the interim."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that despite a bear market in the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index and 15–16% declines in Chinese equities this year, institutional investors continue to add exposure. Holdings remain elevated versus longer history, and Yu argues that cheaper valuations, resilient exports and potential policy support underpin a buy-the-dip mentality in major China benchmarks and ETFs.
Institutional investors keep adding China
"Despite this weakness, our data shows institutional investors continue to buy Chinese equities, with inflows outperforming the rest of Asia (Exhibit 2) where sentiment has been weighed down by outflows from South Korea and Taiwan. However, Chinese equities have fallen 15% to 16% this year, meaning losses on existing holdings have more than offset the value of new purchases."
"China holdings currently rank in the eighth percentile of their 2026 range, but that range has been exceptionally tight: holdings have fluctuated between roughly 10% and 18% above their rolling 12-month average throughout the year. In other words, the low percentile ranking reflects a modest decline from elevated starting levels rather than an outright underweight position."
"Investors appear to be buying Chinese equities because the recent selloff has created a more attractive entry point. Major China ETFs are down close to 20% from their year-to-date highs and more than 12% below their 200-day moving averages, leaving the market deeply oversold."
"Yet valuations remain relatively undemanding, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading on a trailing P/E of 17.6x and the HSCEI on 11.3x. For many institutional investors, the decline in prices appears greater than any deterioration in the long-term investment case, supporting a buy-the-dip mentality."
"From an asset allocation perspective, the combination of attractive valuations, better export data and the potential for further policy support in response to equity market signaling helps explain why cross-border investors continue to add exposure despite recent market weakness."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a constructive stance on USD/SGD after five consecutive daily gains, noting overbought conditions but still expecting further upside. In the near term, they see scope for a test of 1.2980 while 1.3000 caps. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank’s next technical target is 1.3000, provided 1.2915 holds.
Overbought Dollar still grinding higher
"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD edged to a high of 1.2939. When USD was at 1.2935 yesterday, we indicated that “upward momentum has not increased by much, but there is scope for USD to continue to edge higher to 1.2950.” We also indicated that “the major resistance at 1.2960 is unlikely to come into view.” While our expectation of a higher USD was correct, we did not expect it to grind to a high of 1.2974. Conditions are overbought, and upward momentum remains lacklustre. That said, as long as USD holds above 1.2940, there is a chance for it to test 1.2980. This time around, the next resistance at 1.3000 is unlikely to come into view."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD late last week. In our most recent narrative from Monday (22 Jun, spot at 1.2920), we indicated that “the price action suggests USD could rise toward 1.2960.” Yesterday, USD rose and exceeded 1.2960, printing a high of 1.2974. USD closed higher for the fifth straight day at 1.2969 (+0.24%). Given that conditions are overbought, we would have preferred a more impulsive advance, but the overall price action continues to suggest further USD strength. The next technical target is 1.3000. We will maintain our positive USD view as long as 1.2915 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.2890 yesterday) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Ten-year yield drops nearly 10 bps as WTI Oil nears $70.
- Breakevens retreat from April peaks, easing inflation-risk pressure.
- Fed hold remains favored, but the risk of a July hike persists.
US Treasury yields fell across the curve on Wednesday after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which eased inflationary pressures and drove Oil prices lower. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, is rising by over 0.22% to 101.62.
Treasury yields fall as cheaper Oil cools inflation expectations
The US 10-year Treasury note yield is falling nearly 10 basis points, down 2% to 4.40% at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, loses 4% to trade around $70.00 per barrel a day.
The 5- and 10-year breakeven rates, a market-based measure of inflation expectations, are at 2.24% and 2.21%, respectively, after peaking in mid-April at 2.72% and 2.5%, respectively.
Easing Oil prices and fears of a potential supply disruption weighed on US yields, which skyrocketed last week, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, which increased the chances of seeing higher interest rates towards the end of the year.
For the upcoming July 29 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, with odds at 60%. However, there’s a modest 40% chance that policymakers will increase the Fed funds rate, based on incoming data.
The US economic calendar will be busy, with traders focusing on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, GDP figures for Q1 2026, Durable Goods Orders, and jobless claims.
US 10-year Treasury yield chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, June 25:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.60 on Wednesday, at a one-year high as markets looked ahead to Thursday’s United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.
The PCE for May arrives at 8:30am EST on Thursday and is expected to give the market more insight into whether rising Oil prices due to the US and Israel's war with Iran has filtered through to core inflation. Expect US Treasury yields to be volatile following the release.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.42% | 0.52% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.10% | -0.19% | -0.17% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.09% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.05% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.42% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.25% | -0.22% | 0.07% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.52% | -0.26% | -0.15% | -0.35% | -0.29% | -0.07% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | -0.14% | -0.03% | -0.20% | -0.19% | 0.06% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell toward a one-year low near the 1.1360 price level but climbed out of the session's low near 1.1325. The Euro struggled to gain traction despite hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) commentary. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said that, “more hiking is needed” to bring inflation back to 2%, adding that rates are not yet restrictive and that the ceasefire is not a signal for the ECB to ease its vigilance.
GBP/USD weakened and is now close to a one-year low of 1.3160 as Sterling came under heavy pressure from political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) and softer activity data. The S&P Global Flash UK Composite PMI on Tuesday slipped to 49.4 in June from 49.7, while the Services PMI fell to 48.7, marking a 41-month low.
USD/JPY rose to 161.80 as the Greenback benefits from cautious Fed expectations, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in intervention levels.
AUD/USD sloped below the 0.6890 level after Australia’s annual inflation eased to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, below expectations of 4.4%. However, Trimmed Mean Inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, suggesting sticky underlying price pressure. Traders will also watch Australia’s upcoming employment data for fresh clues on the RBA’s policy outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extended its decline toward a three-month low of 70.00 as easing tensions in the Middle East and resumed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduced supply-risk premiums.
Gold slipped below the $4,000 mark, now trading at $3,980, as a stronger US Dollar and expectations of higher-for-longer Fed rates reduced demand for the non-yielding metal. However, geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand could limit deeper losses.
What's next in the docket:
Thursday, June 25:
- US PCE
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- Australian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Friday, June 26:
- Tokyo CPI
- Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
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