Forex News
- Gold price posts modest gains near $4,720 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Two-week ceasefire fails to halt Israel-Hezbollah fighting.
- Fed officials still expect a rate cut this year despite war impacts, FOMC Minutes showed.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed "to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz.
“The ceasefire is calming markets and easing pressure. It could help roll back some inflationary pressures and might open the door for Fed rate cuts, which is bullish for gold,” said Edward Meir, a Marex analyst.
The recovery of yellow metal could be short-term as sporadic fighting continued in the Middle East, including in Lebanon. Iranian officials cast that as violating the terms of the less than day-old ceasefire.
Gold faced some selling pressure in recent weeks amid worries that surging oil prices from the Middle East conflict would create inflationary pressures and prevent central banks from cutting interest rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty, but it does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
According to minutes released Wednesday, Fed officials at their March meeting still expected to lower interest rates this year, even with a high level of uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs. Policymakers stated that they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continued to hold above the Fed’s target, and hiring, which has been mostly flat over the past year.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The US-Iran two-week ceasefire sent the US Dollar tumbling, but cracks in the deal are already showing as Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.
- The FOMC's March minutes showed most officials still expect one rate cut this year, though upside inflation risks from tariffs and oil have risen.
- Thursday's core PCE, GDP and jobless claims data will set the tone ahead of Friday's March CPI print.
GBP/USD surged more than 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire, pushing Cable to a session high close to 1.3485. The rally faded through the North American session, however, with the pair slipping back to the 1.3400 region as doubts over the deal's durability mounted. Vice President JD Vance described the agreement as a "fragile truce," and Israel launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the war began, declaring the Hezbollah front excluded from the terms.
On the Pound Sterling side, Wednesday's UK data painted a soft picture. Halifax house prices fell 0.5% MoM in March against expectations of a 0.1% gain, while the S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45.6, well below the prior 44.5 reading. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing price balance plunged to negative 23%, its weakest since early 2024.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) March meeting minutes, released Wednesday evening, confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Officials flagged rising near-term inflation expectations driven by oil prices and tariffs, while most judged it too early to know how the conflict in the Middle East would affect the US economy. The median projection still calls for one 25 basis point cut this year, but several members noted that a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation stays above target.
Thursday brings the Bank of England's (BoE) Q1 Credit Conditions Survey, though higher-impact releases sit firmly on the US side of the docket. Thursday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February, fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched, followed by Friday's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary April consumer sentiment and inflation expectations readings.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 15-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3399. The pair holds a modest bullish intraday bias as it trades above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3354, keeping the latest rebound supported while short-term momentum remains constructive. The Stochastic RSI at around 81 sits in overbought territory, hinting that upside follow-through may slow even as the broader near-term structure stays underpinned above the 200-period EMA.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 200-period EMA at 1.3354, where a break lower would signal fading bullish pressure and expose deeper pullbacks toward prior intraday lows. As long as GBP/USD respects this moving average on dips, buyers are likely to defend the current consolidation, while overbought oscillators warn that fresh highs may attract profit-taking rather than a sustained breakout.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY slipped roughly 0.66% on Wednesday after the US and Iran struck a last-minute ceasefire deal, pulling the pair off the 160.00 handle.
- Japanese economic data is functionally absent for the rest of the week, leaving Thursday's US PCE and Friday's CPI to set the tone.
USD/JPY fell around 0.66% on Wednesday, retreating from the session high near 160.00 to settle close to 158.50. The sharp reversal from the 160.00 level, which has only been tested once since Tokyo's intervention campaign in July 2024, produced a series of lower highs on the intraday chart, with price consolidating in a tight band just below the 15-minute 200-period EMA heading into the Asian open.
The selloff was triggered by news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, including an agreement by Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal immediately crushed the safe-haven bid that had propelled the US Dollar and crude oil higher throughout March, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower as the Yen clawed back losses.
However, the ceasefire is already proving tenuous; neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and traders are treating the two-week window as a countdown rather than a resolution.
On the Japanese Yen side, the domestic calendar offers little through Friday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to hike at its April 28 meeting, with markets pricing roughly a 70% probability of an increase, but the decision is still weeks away. Attention therefore shifts entirely to the US: Thursday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February alongside fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while Friday delivers March Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.57, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.92. The pair’s latest slide has left price clearly capped by this medium-term dynamic barrier, while the Stochastic RSI has dropped into oversold territory near 14, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet reversed.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period EMA around 158.92, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a recovery toward higher intraday levels. With no clear nearby structural supports on the chart, any further decline from current levels would likely rely on fresh price discovery to establish a new floor, although the oversold Stochastic RSI suggests that sellers may become more cautious on deeper dips.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD surged over 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran struck a last-minute ceasefire, but gains stalled below 0.7100.
- Australian economic data is largely absent for the rest of the week, leaving Thursday's US PCE and Friday's CPI in the driver's seat.
AUD/USD gave back a portion of Wednesday's sharp rally, settling around 0.7050 after surging over 1% earlier in the session. The pair spiked to a three-week high near 0.7085 on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but momentum faded quickly as markets questioned the durability of the deal, with price pulling back into a tight range of small-bodied candles heading into the Asian open.
The ceasefire, which includes an agreement by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, initially crushed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and sent risk-sensitive currencies sharply higher. However, the deal is already proving tenuous; reports suggest neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and traders are treating the two-week window as a countdown rather than a resolution. On the Australian Dollar side, the domestic calendar is functionally empty for the remainder of the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, and markets are pricing the possibility of further tightening at the May decision as elevated energy costs keep inflation pressures alive.
With no local data to trade, attention shifts entirely to the US: Thursday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February and fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while Friday delivers March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data alongside the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7047. The pair holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7005, which suggests a mildly bullish intraday bias as price respects this underlying dynamic support. The Stochastic RSI near 71 hints at firm but increasingly stretched upside momentum, leaving room for consolidation or a shallow pullback while the price action stays supported above the 200-EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA around 0.7005, where buyers would be expected to defend the short-term uptrend if a corrective dip unfolds. As long as AUD/USD remains above this level, the near-term structure favors further recovery attempts, with any pause likely to develop as sideways consolidation rather than a deeper reversal in the very short term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Fragile ceasefire headlines fade quickly, keeping risk sentiment unstable and supporting the USD.
- RBNZ's cautious stance limits NZD upside as policymakers balance inflation risks and weak growth.
- Fed’s steady tone and firm yields continue to underpin the Greenback.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5830 region on Thursday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regains some traction following shifting geopolitical headlines.
Market sentiment initially improved after reports suggested a potential ceasefire framework between the United States, Iran, and Israel. However, optimism faded quickly as the agreement appears fragile, with key conditions still unresolved and ongoing military activity in the Middle East continuing to weigh on confidence.
From a macro perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains in a delicate position. Inflation remains slightly above the 1–3% target band, but policymakers have signaled a willingness to “look through” energy-driven price pressures unless they spill over into broader inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to project a cautious but firm stance. Recent communication, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, reinforced a data-dependent approach, with policymakers acknowledging inflation risks tied to higher oil prices.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5822, holding a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. Price action is now probing a band of overhead levels after reclaiming the 0.58 handle, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5839, followed closely by 0.5847, with further bullish targets at 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 if buying pressure extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5816 ahead of 0.5809, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 100-period SMA around 0.5780 and then the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 to maintain the broader constructive structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- AUD/JPY rises as ceasefire optimism boosts global risk appetite.
- RSI tilts lower despite bullish bias, signaling fading upside momentum.
- Break below 111.50 exposes 111.00 and 110.47 support levels.
The Australian Dollar extended its gains versus the Japanese Yen, driven by an improvement in risk appetite amid the two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran. Still, traders must be aware that hostilities remain as Israel strikes Beirut, saying that Lebanon is not part of the deal. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 111.79, up 0.39%.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY seems poised to consolidate, as it forms a quasi-shooting star, preceded by an uptrend that is about to close below the candle's half-size, an indication that buyers are losing momentum.
This is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is bullish, but tilted to the downside, towards the index`s 50-neutral level. Hence, a clear break below 50 would mean that sellers are gaining momentum, pushing the AUD/JPY lower.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to clear the April 8 daily high at 112.38, which would open the path to challenge 113.00. Further resistance lies overjed at 113.96, the March 11 peak.
Conversely, if AUD/JPY drops to 111.50, a psychological level a move towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.02 and the 111.00 figure is likely. Below here, sellers are gradually taking hold, driving the cross towards the 50-day SMA at 110.47, ahead of the 110.00 milestone.
AUD/JPY Price — Chart
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.21% | -1.55% | -0.63% | -0.68% | -2.20% | -2.21% | -1.12% | |
| EUR | 1.21% | -0.35% | 0.57% | 0.56% | -1.02% | -1.02% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 1.55% | 0.35% | 0.87% | 0.88% | -0.66% | -0.68% | 0.43% | |
| JPY | 0.63% | -0.57% | -0.87% | -0.05% | -1.55% | -1.55% | -0.53% | |
| CAD | 0.68% | -0.56% | -0.88% | 0.05% | -1.54% | -1.52% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | 2.20% | 1.02% | 0.66% | 1.55% | 1.54% | -0.02% | 1.11% | |
| NZD | 2.21% | 1.02% | 0.68% | 1.55% | 1.52% | 0.02% | 1.12% | |
| CHF | 1.12% | -0.08% | -0.43% | 0.53% | 0.44% | -1.11% | -1.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD jumps on ceasefire optimism and hawkish RBNZ commentary.
- RSI breaks above 50, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
- Failure above the 200-day SMA risks a pullback toward 0.5800 support.
The NZD/USD pair rallies sharply on Wednesday, boosted by a double whammy: The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and hawkish remarks by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor, Anna Breman, following the bank’s monetary policy meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.5816 after rebounding at daily lows of 0.5715.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is set to consolidate after reaching a two-week high of 0.5860, but it has failed to sustain its gains above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5849, which could exacerbate a fall below 0.5800.
Nevertheless, momentum shifted bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) spiking above its 50-neutral level, an indication that buyers are gaining strength.
Should the pair regain the 100-day SMA at 0.5840, it will expose the 200-day SMA immediately at 0.5859. Once those levels are taken out, a rally towards 0.5900 is on the cards. A break above puts into play the 50-day SMA at 0.5904, followed by the March 10 high at 0.5964.
On the flipside, if NZD/USD drops below 0.5800, it will find fresh buying interest at the 20-day SMA at 0.5784. The break of support opens the way for a test of the April 8 daily low at 0.5715, ahead of 0.5700.
NZD/USD Price — Chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues Singapore’s energy system and fiscal strength materially limit near‑term tail risks from Middle East tensions. The city‑state benefits from deep infrastructure, diversified sourcing, large inventories and untapped fuel reserves, plus the ability to switch fuels and expand reserves. Strong public finances allow further stockpiling and targeted support if disruptions through Strait of Hormuz persist.
Infrastructure and fiscal space support resilience
"Singapore’s energy resilience materially limits tail risks in the near term. The city-state enters this shock with well-established buffers. Deep energy infrastructure, diversified energy sourcing, and strong logistical capacity significantly reduce vulnerability to near-term supply disruptions. Fuel reserves remain untapped, and no rationing measures have been introduced so far."
"As a global bunkering hub, Singapore holds large inventories and storage capacity, underpinning resilience against temporary supply shocks."
"While natural gas accounts for ~95% of electricity generation and Qatari supplies face stress, mitigation options are substantial. Singapore imports LNG from Australia and the US, retains ability to switch to diesel for electricity generation, and holds strategic fuel reserves owned by the government and power generators."
"That said, vulnerabilities would rise if disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz prove prolonged, reinforcing policymakers’ view that fuel reserves will need to be further expanded."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, April 9:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm near 99.10, supported by safe-haven demand late in the American session with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious on easing. Markets reacted swiftly after the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which largely confirmed that policymakers remain cautious and in no rush to cut rates, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” stance.
The Minutes showed that officials are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation risks, particularly those stemming from elevated energy prices linked to ongoing Middle East hostilities. While the Fed acknowledged some cooling in parts of the economy, it emphasized that inflation progress remains uneven, keeping the bar high for any policy easing.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to cloud the outlook. Despite headlines of a temporary ceasefire between the United States, Iran and Israel, markets remain skeptical as conditions tied to the agreement have yet to be fulfilled, and tensions persist across the region.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.72% | -0.59% | -0.21% | -0.86% | -1.41% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.28% | -0.36% | -0.95% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.69% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.36% | -0.26% | -0.84% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.28% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -0.61% | -1.18% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.61% | -0.58% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 1.41% | 0.95% | 0.69% | 0.84% | 1.18% | 0.58% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.48% | -0.13% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD surged near the 1.1720 region earlier in the day but are now pulling back toward 1.1650 as the stronger USD and lingering Eurozone growth concerns limit upside attempts.
GBP/USD gained traction, trading around the 1.3380 level, hovering near multi-week lows, after trading as high as 1.3484.
USD/JPY fell toward the 158.70 zone, retracing some of its losses but still in the red due to geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD clung onto large gains near the 0.7030 price zone, though falling from earlier heights near 0.7080. The pair is weighed down by risk aversion and a cautious outlook despite relatively stable domestic conditions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices fell sharply to the $95.00 per barrel as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz seems to have dissipated momentarily, with supply risks still in focus despite fragile ceasefire headlines.
Gold trades near $4,709, supported by geopolitical uncertainty earlier in the day, but remained in a neutral zone as risk dissipated.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, April 9
- Germany Trade Balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income
- US Personal Spending
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statement
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
