Forex News

• Gold rebounds from daily lows and remains near $4,000.
• Fed hike bets and rising yields pressure non-yielding Bullion.
• US ADP and NFP data could reshape the Fed’s September tightening odds.

Gold (XAU/USD) price posts modest gains of 0.35% on Tuesday, set to end the month with losses of over 11% after retreating from monthly highs around $4,500 towards $4,000, weighed by overall US Dollar strength. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,026 after hitting an eight-month low of $3,942 earlier in the day.

XAU/USD steadies as Dollar strength keeps monthly losses intact

The US-Iran war was the main reason behind Gold’s collapse in June, propelling Oil prices higher and underpinning the US Dollar. Although they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the conflict and Oil prices have eased, the yellow metal failed to gain traction amid expectations that major central banks could raise interest rates.

Bullion prices tend to fare well amid low-interest-rate environments. Speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could hike rates boosted the Greenback and pushed US Treasury yields higher.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.07% at 101.17. The US 10-year Treasury yield surges 3.5 basis points, up to 4.412%.

Money markets have priced in 35 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening by December 2026, though it’s not expected to change policy in July, according to Prime Terminal data.

Over the weekend, hostilities between Washington and Tehran tested the fragility of the MOU. However, both parties halted attacks as US President Donald Trump's envoys flew to Doha to resume talks.

In the meantime, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was hawkish, insisting that inflation is too high and that, if consumer data holds up, monetary policy is not restrictive enough. She added that the Fed “may need to consider rate hikes."

Data from the US showed that JOLTS unexpectedly increased in May, indicating rising vacancies but weak hiring, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings rose by 7.594 million, beating forecasts of 7.3 million and April's revised 7.585 million.

The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved in June as the truce deal between the US and Iran drove gasoline prices lower.

Ahead, traders are eyeing the ADP National Employment Change data on Wednesday, before the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday, amid a shortened week due to US holidays.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend intact, eyes on $3,500

From a technical perspective, Gold is neutral to downward-biased, as it has registered a successive series of lower highs and lower lows. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bearish, though it signals that selling pressure has eased in the short term, as the slope points up.

For a bullish reversal, Gold must clear $4,100. A breach of the latter will expose the June 22 daily high at $4,220, followed by a down-slope resistance trendline at around the $4,280-$4,300 area. If those levels are taken, the next stop would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,439.

Downwards, the first support would be the day’s low of $3,941. Once surpassed, $3,900 is up next, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be $3,500, April 22, 2025, daily high turned support.

• USD/CHF retraces from YTD high, but bullish structure remains intact.
• RSI holds above 50, signaling bulls remain firmly in control.
• Break above 0.8100 exposes 0.8139 and 0.8171 resistance.

The USD/CHF pair holds firm around 0.8070 on Tuesday, after losing 0.29% on Monday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness amid month-end flows and improving risk appetite.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The uptrend paused as USD/CHF retraced from a year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.8139, opening the door for a 70-pip drop. However, buyers had stepped in, signaling that bullish momentum hasn’t faded.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above its 50-neutral level and closing in on overbought territory. This means that bulls are in charge.

For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF must climb above 0.8100 and clear the YTD high. Above this area is August 1, 2025, with a daily high of 0.8171, followed by the June 19, 2025, high of 0.8215. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the June 4 high at 0.8250.

Downwards, the first support would be the March 31 high-turned support at 0.8042, followed by the June 11 high at 0.8013. Below, the next area of interest would be 0.8000.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• New Zealand Dollar edges higher as ANZ Business Confidence hits a four-month high.
• NZD/USD recovery faces resistance near 0.5700 as the broader downtrend remains intact.
• RSI recovers from oversold territory while the MACD points to easing bearish momentum.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, supported by upbeat New Zealand business confidence data and a modest pullback in the Greenback. At the time of writing, NZD/USD trades around 0.5677, up 0.5% on the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.23 after hitting an intraday high of 101.43 and remains on track for a second consecutive monthly gain.

ANZ Business Confidence surged to 36.6 in June from 10.0 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since February.

Despite the intraday uptick, NZD/USD remains on track to close the month in negative territory, with losses of around 5.20%. The downside came as the US Dollar strengthened across the board amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.

Meanwhile, the lack of progress toward a final US-Iran deal keeps geopolitical risks alive, supporting safe-haven demand for the US Dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi.

Traders now turn their attention to this week's US labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports, which could shape Fed interest rate expectations and drive the next move in NZD/USD.

Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5824 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5862.

The pair is pressing against nearby overhead resistance at 0.5700, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.5 is recovering from oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative with fading red histogram bars, which together hint that downside pressure persists even as selling momentum shows signs of moderating.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier of 0.5700, followed by 0.5770, before the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.5824 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5862 reinforce a broader caps zone.

On the downside, the next notable support comes at 0.5600, where a break would likely extend the current bearish phase, while holding above this floor would keep the pair consolidating beneath the cluster of daily moving averages.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said in comments to CNBC that policymakers have time to assess how higher energy prices may feed through into the United Kingdom (UK) economy, while noting that financial conditions have already tightened.

Key takeaways:

We have time to judge the pass-through of higher energy prices to the UK economy.

UK inflation could still rise to 3.2% later this year.

It is important that energy prices are now not much higher than before the Iran war.

The UK would have hit the inflation target in April or May 2026 were it not for the war.

Financial conditions have tightened, giving the BoE time to evaluate whether it needs to raise the Bank Rate.”

Bailey flags war-driven inflation risks but senses room before next BoE rate move

BoE Governor Bailey’s 7.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score is notably above the historic 4.7/10 baseline, signaling a more hawkish tilt than usual despite the emphasis on patience. References to UK inflation potentially rising to 3.2% later this year and the claim that the inflation target would have been hit by April or May 2026 without the war underscore upside inflation risks that support a firmer stance on GBP.

At the same time, Bailey’s remarks that financial conditions have tightened and that the BoE has time to judge the pass-through of higher energy prices suggest a reluctance to rush into further interest rate hikes. The observation that energy prices are now not much higher than before the Iran war tempers the hawkish tone, implying that while inflation risks remain, the BoE may prefer to wait and assess data before committing to a new tightening cycle, leaving GBP sensitive to incoming inflation and energy market developments.

• AUD/USD rose after the latest RBA Minutes showed that policymakers unanimously kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.
• The Aussie finds support from the RBA’s hawkish tone as the Board left the door open to further tightening.
• US Consumer Confidence improved modestly in June, rising to 91.2 from 90.6.

AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6915 on Tuesday as investors digest the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and a modest improvement in United States (US) Consumer Confidence. The Australian Dollar (AUD) found some support from the RBA’s hawkish tone, although the US Dollar (USD) remained neutral after falling partially due to end-of-quarter profit-taking.

The RBA Minutes from the June 16 meeting showed that policymakers unanimously decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% while keeping the door open to further tightening if inflation fails to return sustainably to target. The Board noted that inflation remains materially above target, policy needs to stay restrictive, and it would do what is necessary to deliver price stability and full employment, including raising rates again if needed.

China-linked sentiment also supported the Aussie after the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0, beating expectations of 50.1 and returning to expansion territory. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2 from 50.1, also above the 49.9 forecast. As China remains Australia’s largest trading partner, signs of stronger Chinese manufacturing and services activity tend to support the Australian Dollar by improving commodity demand expectations and broader risk appetite.

The Minutes also showed that the Australian economy continues to face excess demand and broad-based cost pressure. The RBA also noted that the Australian Dollar had depreciated slightly since the previous meeting, partly due to lower yield differentials against the United States and softer commodity prices.

On the US side, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June from May’s revised 90.6, showing a small improvement in household sentiment. The report noted that falling Oil prices helped ease consumer inflation fears, offering some support to the Greenback, while traders assess whether the US economy remains strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) cautious.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6915. The pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6895, hinting at a modest constructive tone, yet remains capped by the 100-period SMA at 0.6989, which preserves a broader topside barrier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 stays just above its midline, suggesting slightly improving momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at 0.6930, ahead of the longer-term 100-period SMA at 0.6989. On the downside, immediate support is clustered around 0.6904 and the 20-period SMA at 0.6895, followed by a secondary floor at 0.6890 and a deeper level near 0.6868, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the pair retreats.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• USD/JPY extends its advance and trades near its highest level in several decades.
• The US-Japan interest rate differential continues to support carry trades.
• Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes are also underpinning the US Dollar.

USD/JPY trades around 162.65 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day, and remains close to its highest level in several decades. The pair continues to benefit from a supportive backdrop for the US Dollar (USD), while repeated warnings from Japanese authorities about possible foreign exchange intervention have failed to reverse the broader trend.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains weighed down by the wide interest rate differential between Japan and the world's major economies. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate to 1% in June, its highest level since 1995, but it remains well below the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 3.5% to 3.75% target range. This gap of around 250 basis points continues to support carry trades at the expense of the Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is regaining strength after its recent pullback. Ongoing tensions surrounding Iran continue to fuel inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of additional monetary tightening by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now assigning a high chance to another rate hike before the end of the year. These expectations were also reinforced by comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said inflation remains too high and that the Fed may need to consider further rate hikes if price pressures persist.

Recent US economic data also support this outlook. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings rose to 7.594M in May, above market expectations, while investors now await Wednesday's ADP Employment Change report and Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

On the Japanese side, policymakers continue to issue verbal intervention warnings. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara reiterated that authorities stand ready to take the necessary action in the foreign exchange market if needed. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also said the government would respond appropriately to excessive currency moves. According to ING, the risk of another intervention remains elevated after USD/JPY broke above 162, although the persistent strength of the US Dollar could limit the effectiveness of any action by Japanese authorities.

Meanwhile, discussions within the Bank of Japan continue to support expectations for a gradual normalization of monetary policy, with several policymakers recently highlighting the risks of more persistent inflation. However, despite the central bank's more hawkish stance, Japan's still-low interest rates continue to limit the Japanese Yen's appeal against a US Dollar supported by expectations of a still-restrictive monetary policy.

• EUR/USD recovers from an intraday low as month-end repositioning pressures the US Dollar.
• Fed rate-hike bets and geopolitical uncertainty continue to underpin the Greenback.
• ECB policymakers offer mixed signals on the need for another rate hike.

The Euro (EUR) stages a rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as month-end repositioning weighs modestly on the Greenback, limiting support from upbeat US economic data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1415 after hitting an intraday low of 1.1382.

US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.594 million in May from April's revised 7.585 million, beating market expectations of 7.3 million.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The reading fell short of economists' expectations of 94.7, according to a Reuters poll.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.23 after hitting an intraday high of 101.43 and remains on track for a second consecutive monthly gain, leaving EUR/USD on course for a second straight monthly decline.

The Greenback remains supported by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and lingering uncertainty over the next round of US-Iran talks. While US and Iranian envoys have arrived in Doha, no direct talks between the two sides are scheduled.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said, "Inflation is still too high," adding that the Fed "may need to consider rate hikes" and that "core inflation has been elevated; it's not just an energy story."

Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a September rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Attention now turns to this week's labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change report and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, for fresh clues on the Fed's policy outlook.

On the Euro side, expectations for another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike have become less certain as easing Oil prices reduce inflation concerns.

Speaking on Tuesday, ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said, "I don't see major second-round effects materialising," and added, "It's important not to commit to a predetermined rate path." Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said, "We're going to have some second-round effects," adding that "we might need another hike."

• UK GDP misses yearly forecasts, but services cushion the slowdown.
• JOLTS vacancies rise, yet hiring weakness clouds labor outlook.
• BoE's Bailey and Fed's Hammack keep inflation and rate risks alive.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances 0.11% on Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) despite UK data showing the economy is slowing, while the latest US jobs report indicated that the number of vacancies rose in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3270.

GBP/USD gains as politics calm despite weaker UK growth signals

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2026 expanded by 0.6% QoQ as expected, boosted by services, specifically computer programming, commented Liz McKewon, the director of economic statistics at the ONS. However, on a yearly basis, the economy grew by 0.9%, below estimates and the prior reading of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, investors continue to digest Andy Burnham's speech, in which he pledged for a radical political change, devolving more power to regions and promoting cooperation over division. Also, he adhered to the fiscal rules developed by the current Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Cable showed no meaningful reaction to the data, but as of late, GBP/USD cleared Monday's peak following the release of US data.

The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) jumped unexpectedly in May, an indication that vacancies are rising, but hiring remains weak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings rose by 7.594 million, exceeding forecasts of 7.3 million and above the downwardly revised 7.585 million in April.

Other data showed that US Consumer Confidence improved in June as the truce deal between the US and Iran drove gasoline prices lower.

Dana Peterson, the Chief Economist at the Conference Board, said that “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly ​more positive ​compared to ⁠last month.” However, she added that perceptions about the labor market had weakened.

Recently, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey commented that UK inflation could still rise to 3.2% this year, and that it’s important that energy prices are now much higher than before the war in Iran.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) Beth Hammack was hawkish, commenting that inflation is too high and that the Fed “may need to consider rate hikes.” Hammack added that if consumer data holds up, this means that policy is not that restrictive.

Money markets had priced in 35 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening by the end of 2026. For the July meeting, traders expect the US central bank to hold rates unchanged.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3253, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the cluster of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) grouped around 1.3420. The pair also trades beneath both the broken upward trendline at 1.3468 and the former downward resistance line now watched around 1.3526, suggesting rallies remain capped while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 stays in neutral-to-soft territory.

On the topside, initial resistance stands at the daily SMA cluster near 1.3420, followed by the upward trend-line break level at 1.3468, while a more significant barrier emerges at the prior downward resistance trend-line around 1.3526. On the downside, the lack of nearby mapped structural supports leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely using intraday lows and psychological handles as interim floors until a clearer technical base develops below the current 1.3253 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Gold bounces after touching a fresh seven-month low of $3,941.
• Hawkish Fed expectations and a stronger US Dollar continue to weigh on the non-yielding metal.
• XAU/USD is attempting to stabilize above the $4,000 mark, but technical indicators continue to favor sellers.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday after falling to a fresh seven-month low of $3,941 in the Asian session, as dip buyers help the precious metal recover some of its losses. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,030 after hitting an intraday high of $4,063.

Despite the modest intraday recovery, Gold remains on track for its worst quarter since 2013, having erased all of its gains for the year. The precious metal is down nearly 18% this quarter and is heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2008, with losses of about 11%.

The downside came as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered an energy-driven inflation shock, causing a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

While Gold typically benefits from geopolitical tensions and rising inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal because the non-yielding metal becomes less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over a potential round of talks between the US and Iran in Qatar and expectations that the Fed could raise borrowing costs in the second half of the year continue to support the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 101.10 and is on track for a second consecutive monthly gain. A stronger Greenback adds further pressure on Gold by making it more expensive for overseas buyers.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 63% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Tuesday, "We may need higher rates to bring inflation back to target," while adding, "I worry what higher rates could do to the rest of the economy."

This week's US labor market data will be carefully watched for fresh clues on the Fed's next policy move. Tuesday's JOLTS report showed Job Openings rose to 7.594 million in May, beating market expectations of 7.3 million.

Attention now turns to the ADP Employment Change report due on Wednesday, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday, which will be released a day earlier than usual ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend.

The upcoming data are also likely to determine Gold's near-term direction. The $4,000 level remains an important psychological support, and unless it is decisively broken, XAU/USD may continue to consolidate near recent lows.

Strategists at Societe Generale said, "While the decline appears somewhat stretched, signals of a meaningful rebound are not yet visible. Should a short-term bounce emerge, the recent pivot high at $4,100 may act as the initial resistance. Below $3,885, the next projections could be located at $3,750 and $3,600."

Technical Analysis: Bearish bias persists below key moving averages

On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as price holds well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered between roughly $4,440 and $4,660.

The metal is attempting to stabilize just above the $4,000 area, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 remains weak, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 42 suggests a still-solid underlying trend, hinting that downside pressure could persist unless key overhead levels are reclaimed.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the horizontal floor around $4,000, where a sustained break would open the way to further losses in the coming sessions.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at $4,300, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,438 and the 200-day SMA at $4,480, with the 100-day SMA up at $4,663 acting as a broader cap on any corrective bounce while the bearish structure remains in place.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Silver rebounds as the US Dollar gives back part of its intraday gains despite upbeat US data.
• XAG/USD challenges the $60 support-turned-resistance level after recent stabilization.
• The broader technical picture remains bearish, limiting the scope for a sustained recovery.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) trims part of its intraday gains despite upbeat US economic data. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $59.70, up nearly 2.5% on the day.

US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.594 million in May from April's revised 7.585 million, beating market expectations of 7.3 million. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 91.2 in June from 90.6 in May.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 101.10 after hitting an intraday high of 101.43.

However, the DXY remains on track for a second consecutive monthly gain, leaving Silver down nearly 20% this month as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the Greenback supported and weigh on the non-yielding metal.

The technical outlook also suggests bears remain in control, making a meaningful recovery unlikely in the near term.

Technical Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as price remains capped beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $64.32 and the 200-period SMA at $69.68.

The metal is also trading under a downward resistance trend line, with its break point at $63, while the horizontal barrier at $60 is being challenged but not yet reclaimed; momentum has improved with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising toward 54, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) easing toward 38, suggesting a consolidative phase within a broader downside structure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal level of $60, followed by the trend-line break price at $63, before the 100-period SMA at $64.32 and the more distant 200-period SMA at $69.68 reinforce a dense supply zone. On the downside, the next notable structural support emerges near $50.00, and as long as XAG/USD trades beneath the clustered moving averages and trend resistance, rallies toward the $60-63 area are likely to struggle.

On the daily chart, XAG/USD remains under bearish pressure, with the price trading well below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs.

The RSI has recovered modestly from oversold territory but remains weak at around 35, suggesting bearish momentum is easing without signaling a trend reversal. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 37 points to a strong underlying trend, indicating sellers continue to hold the upper hand despite the recent stabilization.

On the topside, immediate resistance sits at the horizontal pivot around $60.00, which guards the path toward the 200-day SMA at $69.73 and then the 50-day SMA at $72.28, with the 100-day SMA at $75.55 marking a deeper corrective barrier if buyers gain traction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)