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ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say LME Aluminium fell towards $3,000/t as markets unwound the geopolitical risk premium from earlier Middle East tensions. An update from Emirates Global Aluminium showed 7% of pots at Al Taweelah restarted, reinforcing expectations that Gulf supply disruptions are temporary and that lost production will gradually return, easing availability concerns.
EGA restart eases supply fears
"LME aluminium came under renewed pressure yesterday, with the three-month price falling towards $3,000/t as the market continued to unwind the geopolitical risk premium built up during the Middle East conflict."
"Sentiment was weighed down by an update from Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). It said that around 7% of production pots at its Al Taweelah smelter have been restarted, highlighting steady progress in restoring output following the missile and drone attacks earlier this year."
"The update reinforced expectations that supply disruptions in the Gulf will prove temporary. Concerns over lost Middle Eastern production and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz helped lift prices sharply earlier this year. But recovering output and easing regional tensions have steadily improved the supply outlook."
"While a significant portion of Al Taweelah's capacity remains offline and a full recovery will still take time, the latest update reinforces expectations that lost supply will gradually return to the market. This is easing concerns over aluminium availability."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold extends gains as a weak US NFP report weighs on the US Dollar.
- Softer labor market data prompts markets to delay expectations for a Fed rate hike.
- Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum is gradually rebuilding, with the MACD turning positive and the RSI recovering toward neutral.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Friday as weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Thursday batters the US Dollar (USD) and cools expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,185, up about 1.50% on the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.76, near two-week lows.
The US economy added just 57K jobs in June, nearly half the market expectation of 110K. Following the data, markets shifted expectations for a Fed interest rate hike from September to December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike fell to 53% from the 63% expected before the data release, while the odds for a December hike stand at a still high 76.8%.
The delay in Fed rate hike expectations eases near-term pressure on the non-yielding metal, helping Gold stage a solid rebound from the seven-month low of $3,949 touched on Tuesday and putting it on track for its first weekly gain in five weeks.
Can Gold extend its rebound?
While Gold is showing signs of resilience above the $4,000 mark after correcting nearly 28% from its record high near $5,600 reached in January, further upside is likely to depend on the evolving macroeconomic backdrop.
Oil prices have fallen significantly from the highs seen during the US-Iran war, easing a key source of inflationary pressure. Combined with softer US labor market conditions, this weakens the case for an immediate Fed rate hike.
However, monetary policy is still expected to remain restrictive until inflation shows meaningful progress toward the Fed's 2% target. In that environment, Gold's upside is likely to remain limited unless the Fed clearly adopts a dovish stance.
A hawkish Fed outlook should also support the US Dollar, creating an additional headwind for Gold by making the precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers.
Still, Gold's longer-term outlook remains supported by robust central bank demand. The latest World Gold Council (WGC) data showed central banks added a net 41 tonnes of Gold to their reserves in May.
The Council's Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026, released last month, found that 89% of central bankers expect global Gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while a record-high 45% plan to increase their own Gold holdings.
Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum rebuilds as XAU/USD reclaims 20-day SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a near-term bullish bias as it retests the 20-day Simple Moving Average (the Bollinger middle band) at roughly $4,156, suggesting dip-buying interest persists.
Price remains well below the Bollinger upper band near $4,371, leaving room for further upside, while the Relative Strength Index around 47 stays just below neutral and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints in positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is rebuilding.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at $4,371, where a daily close above would open the door to a stronger extension of the uptrend.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day SMA around $4,156, followed by the horizontal floor at $4,000 and the lower Bollinger band near $3,942, levels that together define a broader demand zone that would need to give way to meaningfully undermine the prevailing constructive bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD extends on Friday but remains capped below 1.1475.
- Soft US employment figures have cooled Fed tightening hopes and are weighing on the US Dollar.
- The Euro is likely to meet significant resistance ahead of 1.1500.
The Euro (EUR) trades higher for the second consecutive day on Friday, with the US Dollar (USD) on its back foot in the aftermath of the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair, however, is struggling to breach resistance at 1.1475 so far.
US economy produced 57K net jobs in June, according to NFP figures, just above half of the 110K expected by the market, while May’s reading was revised down to 129K from the 172K previously estimated. These figures have cooled market hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and sent the US Dollar lower against its main peers.
Beyond that, data from the Eurozone has been Euro-supportive on Friday. June’s final HCOB Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been revised up to a 49.4 reading from the previously estimated 48.9, pushing the Composite PMI up to 50 from the 49.5 reading shown at the preliminary estimates. German and Spanish services activity has been stronger than previously thought in June, while Italian and French services figures were revised lower,
Technical Analysis: Bulls are likely to be tested ahead of 1.1500
EUR/USD trades at 1.1455, maintaining a constructive near-term, yet with upside attempts capped below the 1.1475-1.1500 area. Momentum supports the bullish tone, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in the low 60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line modestly positive.
Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance ahead of 1.1500, where the June 8, 11 and 17 lows meet the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June downtrend. If these levels give way, the next target is at the June 15 and 16 highs around 1.1620.
On the downside, Wednesday's low in the 1.1360 area is likely to hold bears, ahead of the horizontal floor at 1.1333 (June 24 low). A break of that level would expose the late-May 2025 low at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.10% | -0.21% | -0.26% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.24% | -0.11% | -0.11% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.18% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.10% | -0.26% | -0.28% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.24% | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.00% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.28% | 0.37% | -0.00% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.16% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
TD Securities strategists expect the ISM Services index to retreat in June after May’s gain, pointing to broad-based slowing in US activity and new orders while employment remains in contraction. They note softer June Payrolls, with leisure and hospitality jobs hit by seasonal factors and the unemployment rate falling on lower participation. Weaker data have challenged recent long Dollar positioning and reduced pricing for 2026 Federal Reserve hikes.
Services cooling and jobs softening
"We look for the ISM services index to partly give back May's ~1pt gain, dropping to 54.0 in June (cons: 54.2). We anticipate broad-based slowing, with activity and new orders explaining most of the cooling while employment likely stayed in contraction territory."
"Prices paid are expected to fall as well, as the index moved persistently higher along the March-May surge in energy prices."
"Payrolls softer than expected, led by weak leisure & hospitality jobs driven lower by seasonal adjustments."
"Job gains appear on the path back to breakeven.UE rate declined to 4.2% due to lower participation."
"Still-stable labor market will keep Fed's focus on inflation. Pricing for 2026 hikes declined, pushing yields lower. The recent buildup in long USD positioning is challenged by weaker data."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US Dollar Index looks set for a negative weekly close as soft US job data weighs on hawkish Fed bets.
- The Fed is still expected to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
- Analysts at ING see little pain ahead for the US Dollar despite the recent NFP-induced decline.
The US Dollar underperforms its major currency peers as traders reconsider hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, following the release of the weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.70. The USD Index is down 0.66% from its last week’s closing price of 101.37.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.54% | -1.12% | -0.39% | -0.01% | -0.70% | -1.12% | -0.89% | |
| EUR | 0.54% | -0.64% | 0.15% | 0.49% | -0.18% | -0.64% | -0.41% | |
| GBP | 1.12% | 0.64% | 0.82% | 1.14% | 0.45% | -0.00% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.39% | -0.15% | -0.82% | 0.36% | -0.33% | -0.65% | -0.54% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.49% | -1.14% | -0.36% | -0.69% | -1.01% | -0.81% | |
| AUD | 0.70% | 0.18% | -0.45% | 0.33% | 0.69% | -0.45% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | 1.12% | 0.64% | 0.00% | 0.65% | 1.01% | 0.45% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.89% | 0.41% | -0.23% | 0.54% | 0.81% | 0.21% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike by the end of the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday, the CME FedWatch tool shows.
The US NFP report showed on Thursday that the number of payrolls increased were lower than expected. The NFP data arrived at 57K, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K.
Meanwhile, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the pain the US Dollar will continue next week.
Analysts at ING said, “The dollar is unlikely to enter a sustained downward trend after Thursday's worse-than-expected US NFP report. The data aren't weak enough on their own to trigger a significant repricing in rate rise bets for the Federal Reserve, he says. While markets scaled back the prospect of imminent tightening, there is still more than 25 basis points (bps) priced in by December. The institution expects the DXY to stabilize in a range of 100.0-101.500 in coming weeks.
Next week, major triggers for the US Dollar will be the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the June policy meeting.
- Silver gains more than 2% on Friday and trades around $62.35.
- Weaker-than-expected US NFP reduces expectations of Fed rate hikes this year.
- Persistent US-Iran tensions continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances to $62.35 on Friday at the time of writing, up 2.32% on the day, as investors increase exposure to precious metals following the release of a weaker-than-expected US employment report. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revived expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook, weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and supporting non-yielding assets.
The report showed that the US economy added only 57K jobs in June, well below the market expectation of 110K. In addition, the previous month's reading was revised lower. Following the release, markets scaled back expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see around a 52% chance of a rate hike by September, down from 66% before the data.
The decline in rate hike expectations is putting pressure on the US Dollar, making Silver more attractive for international investors. The move is also supporting Gold (XAU/USD), which remains close to its recent highs, benefiting from the same interest rate backdrop and weaker Greenback.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated after Iran's joint military command warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with a "decisive and swift response." Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iran had accepted "nearly everything we require," highlighting the continued uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the two countries.
With US markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, trading activity is likely to remain subdued. Nevertheless, investors will continue to monitor expectations surrounding the Fed's monetary policy, as well as geopolitical developments in the Middle East, both of which are likely to influence the outlook for precious metals in the near term.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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