Forex News
- GBP/USD plunges nearly 0.60% to 1.3371, breaking below 1.3400.
- US payrolls surge 165K versus 65K expected; unemployment falls to 4.1%.
- BoE tightening fails to support Sterling despite prospects of further hikes.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) dives nearly 0.60% against the US Dollar (USD) as a stellar US Nonfarm Payrolls report shows a solid labor market and clears the path for further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3371 after peaking near 1.3463.
GBP/USD tumbles on strong NFP, reinforcing Fed tightening expectations
US Nonfarm Payrolls in October exceeded estimates of 65K, rising to 165K, while figures from September were upwardly revised from 29K to 60K. The report lowered the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%, as employers added jobs across sectors.
Recently, the University of Michigan reported that Consumer Sentiment in November exceeded the forecasts and the previous month's print of 48, rising to 51 on its preliminary reading. The survey showed that Americans see inflation edging lower, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.3% down from 4.7% and five-year expectations at 3.4% down from 3.5%
After the data, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors increased the odds of a December Fed rate hike from 67% a day ago to nearly 77%.
In geopolitics, an Iranian source said Tehran is responding positively to the latest proposal from mediators, according to Al-Arabiya. Nevertheless, tensions remain high, as unconfirmed reports indicate that a US aircraft issued an emergency notice near the coast of Oman, Tasnim reported.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said that “people remain concerned about inflation at the current level,” adding that inflation expectations remain anchored and that current excess inflation is due to energy shocks and the AI buildout.
In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) rate hike was a tailwind for GBP/USD, but failure of a decisive breakout above 1.3500 exacerbated the Pound’s fall beneath 1.3400 during Friday’s session.
However, Cable sellers are not out of the woods, as the BoE hinted at another potential rate increase, even though it doesn’t see clear evidence of second-round inflation effects. Additionally, the BoE said a potential US-Iran peace deal would be positive for the economy but warned that it may not be sufficient to bring inflation down.
Next week, speeches by BoE officials and the release of UK GDP figures could rock the boat. In the US, the release of CPI figures, jobless claims, and Fed officials' comments can influence the direction of the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technica outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3368, holding just above the cluster of the 50/100/200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.3362, which now acts as immediate support. Price action sits marginally beneath a descending resistance trend line break at 1.3381, leaving the near-term bias neutral as the pair oscillates around its key averages, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 50.77 reinforces a consolidative tone rather than a directional push.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the downward-sloping trend line break at 1.3381, with subsequent barriers emerging at the former rising support trend lines whose break prices stand at 1.3684 and 1.3855. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the triple SMA cluster near 1.3362, ahead of a more distant structural floor at the prior resistance trend line break around 1.3235, where buyers would be expected to reassert if the pair extends a pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.62% | 0.64% | 0.30% | 0.69% | 0.83% | 0.93% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | -0.62% | 0.02% | -0.32% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.29% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.64% | -0.02% | -0.32% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.25% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.39% | 0.52% | 0.61% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.69% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.39% | 0.13% | 0.22% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.83% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.52% | -0.13% | 0.10% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.93% | -0.29% | -0.25% | -0.61% | -0.22% | -0.10% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | 0.21% | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.29% | 0.41% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
BNP Paribas underscores India’s favourable medium-term growth outlook, with the IMF lifting forecasts to 6.8% per year, but stresses significant structural constraints. The report points to a modest middle class, large informal economy, weak industrial base and labour market rigidities. It warns that without faster reforms in AI adaptation and industrial development, India risks failing to complete its transition to a higher-value, more inclusive economy.
High growth facing deep structural hurdles
"In October 2026, the IMF revised upward India’s medium-term growth forecast from 6.5% to 6.8% per year. Nonetheless, to achieve such strong growth performance, India will have to adapt to the challenges posed by artificial intelligence (AI), while its infrastructure and education system are not prepared for it."
"India faces two key structural challenges: i) adapting the services sector to AI and ii) accelerating industrial development. Even with progress in sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals, India’s industrial base remains too small to absorb its vast labour force."
"India may fail in completing its transition to a higher-value, more industrialised and inclusive economy if reforms do not accelerate significantly. Structural changes could lag behind pressures from its rapidly growing population and fast global technological advances."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold extends its decline as stronger-than-expected US jobs data lift the Dollar and Treasury yields.
- Lower Oil prices support Gold's weekly recovery, although hawkish Fed expectations remain a hurdle.
- XAU/USD holds above the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday as stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data lifts the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,050, down 1.20% on the day, after climbing to a two-week high of $4,146 on Thursday.
The US economy added 165K jobs in October, more than double the 65K forecast, while September’s gain was revised higher to 60K from 29K. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.
The stronger hiring figures point to a resilient labour market, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to keep fighting inflation and strengthening the case for a December interest rate hike. Higher interest rates increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets, weighing on Gold, which offers no yield.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.22, up 0.62% on the day. US Treasury yields also rebound, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 4 basis points (bps) to 4.88%.
Meanwhile, the deepening AI-led sell-off in equities leaves Gold vulnerable to liquidity-driven selling as investors cut positions to raise cash, meet margin calls or cover losses elsewhere.
Still, bullion remains set to break a three-week losing streak, supported by a sharp drop in Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down around 12% so far this week as the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections fuels expectations that lawmakers could curb President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran.
However, a negotiated end to the US-Iran war still appears distant despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, while Oil prices have recovered some ground. US President Donald Trump said the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran, adding that people will “know soon enough” whether he will act.
Crude and its impact on inflation and interest rates have been key drivers for bullion since the war began in late February. Higher energy costs have added to pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy.
Technical analysis: bulls struggle to clear 200-period SMA
On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD holds above both the 50-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), hinting at a constructive near-term tone even as it remains capped by the 200-period SMA.
The Relative Strength Index (14) has eased from overbought territory to around 55, suggesting bullish momentum has cooled but remains mildly positive. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers near the zero line, indicating limited directional momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA at $4,114, followed by the horizontal barrier near $4,200, where a sustained break would open the way for a stronger bullish continuation.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 100-period SMA at $4,050, with the 50-period SMA at $4,004 underpinning the broader structure; a deeper pullback could revisit the year-to-date low around $3,870.23, where buyers would be expected to defend the prevailing uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY snaps a two-day losing streak as upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls lift the Greenback.
- Strong US labour market data reinforces expectations of another Fed rate hike in December.
- Falling JGB yields weigh on the Yen, offsetting support from safe-haven demand.
USD/JPY rebounds on Friday, snapping a two-day losing streak as stronger-than-expected US jobs data lifts the US Dollar (USD) and brings its yield advantage over the Japanese Yen (JPY) back into focus. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 158.30 after hitting an intraday low of 157.26.
October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report shows employers added 165K jobs, well above the 65K forecast. Upward revisions to September’s hiring, a drop in unemployment to 4.1% and stronger-than-expected wage growth add to signs that the labour market remains firm.
The report leaves the Federal Reserve (Fed) with little urgency to step away from its inflation fight, keeping a December rate hike firmly in play. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday inflation must return to 2% “on a timely basis,” adding that “excess inflation today is coming from energy shocks and the AI buildout.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.15, recovering from the five-week low near 101.20 reached earlier this week. US Treasury yields also rebound, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 4 basis points (bps) to 4.88%.
However, softer US consumer inflation expectations limit further gains in the Dollar. Preliminary University of Michigan data show one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.3% in November from 4.7%, while the five-year measure eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen initially benefited from safe-haven demand amid an AI-led equity sell-off. However, investors also bought Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), pushing domestic yields lower and offsetting some of the support from risk aversion.
Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield trades around 2.63%, near a four-month low and down more than 4% on the day. This leaves the gap with its US counterpart at around 225 bps. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish outlook offers only limited support to the Yen.
Nevertheless, the risk of Japanese intervention keeps traders cautious about taking aggressive bullish positions in USD/JPY. The pair has remained rangebound since late September after recovering from an earlier intervention-driven slide that briefly pushed it below 154.00.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that “people remain concerned about inflation at the current level,” adding that inflation expectations remain anchored.
Musalem said that the Fed “must return inflation to 2% on a timely basis” and noted that current excess inflation is due to energy shocks and the AI buildout.
Key highlights:
People remain concerned about inflation at the current level
Inflation expectations remain anchored
Must return inflation to 2% on a timely basis
Excess inflation today is coming from energy shocks and the AI buildout
Consumption and investment are both growing at a fast rate based on an optimistic outlook
AI will bring much higher productivity
Data center build-out contributing to strong demand
Good Fed comms leads to smoother policy transmission
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.61% | 0.64% | 0.30% | 0.63% | 0.63% | 0.82% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.61% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.21% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.64% | -0.03% | -0.34% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.18% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | 0.32% | 0.34% | 0.35% | 0.34% | 0.53% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.63% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.35% | -0.01% | 0.17% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.63% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.34% | 0.01% | 0.18% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.82% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.53% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | 0.18% | 0.21% | -0.14% | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.37% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra reports Indonesia’s Q3 GDP grew 5.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in Q2, driven by household consumption, investment and exports. Energy subsidies and social spending helped sustain consumer purchasing power despite higher Oil prices. The bank maintains its 2026 GDP forecast at 5.3%, but notes upside risks from strong year-to-date growth and resilient household spending.
Policy support underpins robust expansion
"Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.5% y/y in Q3 (vs 5.2% in Q2), beating our and consensus expectations, led by relatively steady household consumption, investment and exports."
"Broadly unchanged energy prices supported by subsidies and social spending helped sustain household consumption growth above 5.0% y/y in Q3, despite higher food and imported inflation."
"We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 5.3%, with upside risk given the strong growth rebound (5.5% YTD) and resilient household spending."
"However, we expect cautious business sentiment and a weak formal-sector recovery will likely continue to weigh on growth in the near term, especially as narrowing fiscal buffers constrain support for household purchasing power."
"That said, the government has planned around IDR 31tn in year-end stimulus, largely through food assistance and wage subsidies, which should provide some support to household consumption in Q4-2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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