Forex News
CBS News reported that the United States and Israel may engage in a large campaign against Iran, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, said multiple sources.
The duration would be over the weekend ahead of next week's Asian open in the financial markets. The article mentions that US sources revealed that Israel has been notified and “are coordinating with the United States.” The US “president has yet to give the final go orders for the strikes, the sources said.”
Meanwhile, an Israeli official told CBS News, “Israel is unaware of a decision to restart full military operations, nor has been requested of Israel to join any military actions against Iran.[
The article read “The military strike plan came up during President Trump's cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday, according to sources briefed later. Some White House aides who focus on politics were strongly opposed, one of the sources said.”
According to two sources, energy infrastructure includes power plants and refineries would be the main targets,
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- NZD/USD clears 100- and 200-day SMAs, exposing 0.5900.
- RSI momentum turns bullish, but overbought risks may emerge.
- Break above 0.5900 targets 0.5995, 0.6000 and 0.6077.
The Kiwi Dollar extends its three-day rally, climbing above 0.5850 and is poised to challenge 0.5900 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness. The clearance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the bullish trend, as traders eye the May monthly high at 0.5995.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows that market structure is becoming more constructive, indicating further upside in the NZD/USD pair. After surpassing the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 0.5821/23, the pair is poised to hurdle the 0.5900 figure.
Momentum has clearly shifted bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aiming towards the overbought territory. Should be remembered that the 80 reading is more precise, delineating extreme overextended uptrends.
If NZD/USD clears 0.5900, the next stop is the May 29 high at 0.5995. Above is 0.6000 followed by the February 12 daily peak at 0.6077, before testing the yearly peak at 0.6094.
Downwards, the first support is the psychological level of 0.5850. Below is the confluence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs, at around 0.5821/23, ahead of 0.5800. Below is the 50-day SMA at 0.5790.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The first full week of August will test whether the US Dollar can recover from its sell-off during the last week of July as investors shift their attention from central bank decisions to a fresh round of economic data. The spotlight will be on July's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while ISM surveys, ADP Employment figures and JOLTS Job Openings will offer additional clues on the strength of the US economy.
In Europe, investors will assess whether inflationary pressure is beginning to ease through Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and Factory Orders data. Meanwhile, China will release key PMI and trade figures that could influence commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.90 and will take its main direction from Friday's July employment report. Markets expect the economy to add 91K jobs, following June's 57K, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge up to 4.3%. Before then, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment will provide important signals on labor market momentum and economic activity. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce the Fed's hawkish bias, while softer data may revive expectations of policy easing.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.29% | 0.03% | -0.19% | -0.21% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.22% | 0.08% | -0.14% | -0.17% | 0.41% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | 0.09% | -0.15% | 0.17% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.50% | |
| JPY | 0.29% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.68% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.25% | 0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.06% | -0.14% | 0.21% | -0.04% | 0.53% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.59% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.50% | -0.68% | -0.33% | -0.53% | -0.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The EUR/USD pair is holding onto gains near the 1.1530 price region. Next week's outlook will be driven by a busy economic calendar. Monday brings June Retail Sales and final Manufacturing PMIs, while Wednesday features Services PMIs and Producer Price Index data. German Factory Orders and another Retail Sales release later in the week will offer further insight into domestic demand and industrial activity. Sticky inflation combined with resilient activity could continue supporting the Euro, although stronger US data may cap EUR/USD upside.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3480 as it closes the week. The United Kingdom (UK) has a relatively quiet calendar, leaving GBP/USD primarily driven by US economic releases. As a result, the pair may remain highly sensitive to ISM surveys, ADP employment and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.
USD/JPY ends July near the 159.10 level after intervention suspicion. In Japanese markets, the focus is on June Labor Cash Earnings and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Investors will look for additional evidence that wage growth remains consistent with the BoJ's tightening path following last week's policy meeting. Any signs of stronger wage inflation could provide additional support for the Japanese Yen.
AUD/USD trades near the 0.7040 level. The AUD/USD pair will face an important week as China publishes Caixin Services PMI and July trade data, both closely watched given Australia's strong trade relationship with China. Domestically, Australia's Trade Balance will provide another update on external demand. Positive Chinese data could support the Australian Dollar, while weaker figures may revive concerns over regional growth.
Gold ends the week near $4,050 on a lower note. Investors will closely monitor US labor-market data and Treasury yields throughout the week. Strong employment data would likely support the US Dollar and yields, limiting Gold's upside, while weaker figures could revive demand for the precious metal.
- USD/CHF rebounds from weekly lows, keeping bullish structure intact.
- RSI turns higher, hinting at recovery despite bearish territory.
- Break below 0.8010 would threaten 0.8000 and SMA supports.
The USD/CHF bounces off weekly lows and meanders around 0.8080 after hitting a daily high of 0.8127, amid presumed intervention, with Nikkei reporting that the US Treasury Department has told currency market participants to prepare for additional intervention, following Thursday's action by Japanese authorities to boost the Yen.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF rebounded, reaffirming its upward bias. The market structure suggests the uptrend will continue as long as spot prices remain above the 50-day SMA and the July 10 cycle low of 0.8010.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning bearish, aiming upwards, an indication that a recovery may be on the cards. This, along with price action confirming that the uptrend is in play, suggests that further upside is the path of least resistance.
To resume a bullish trend, USD/CHF must break above 0.8100. Beyond this level, the high of July 30 at 0.8175 is the next target, followed by 0.8200. If the price convincingly breaks through, the yearly high of 0.8207 could be within reach.
A move below the 50-day SMA and 0.8010 would signal a potential break of 0.8000. Such a move could disrupt the bullish market structure and lead to further declines. The next support levels are the 100-day SMA at 0.7952 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7927.
USD/CHF Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- Gold falls as soaring Treasury yields offset softer Dollar backdrop
- Fed dissenters defend hikes, keeping inflation risks in focus
- Failure below $4,100 exposes downside as WTI remains elevated
Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.
XAU/USD drops as Treasury yields, Fed dissents and inflation risks pressure Bullion
The yellow metal is poised to finish the week with losses of over 0.11%, unable to decisively crack the $4,100 milestone. At the same time, the DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.05%, at 99.91, but failed to provide a tailwind for Gold prices as US Treasury yields are soaring.
The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.745%, up almost seven and a half basis points, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates to tame inflation.
On Thursday, US economic data showed that economic growth was softer than projected in Q2 2025, down from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.5% QoQ. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, came in at 3.3% YoY, down from 3.4%, a relief for the US central bank, which decided to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday.
During the day, three FOMC members who voted for rate hikes revealed the reasons for their vote.
Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan suggested that inflation risks are tilting upward and favored raising interest rates to improve the balance of the outlook. Beth Hammack from the Cleveland Fed mentioned that the policy rate is still not restrictive enough as inflation has been “too high for too long. The Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said he preferred to raise rates by 25 basis points as he favors a gradual approach to monetary policy rather than “bolder actions.”
Money markets trimmed hawkish bets after the July meeting. Before, the odds for a rate hike in September were nearly 60%. As of writing, the chances were trimmed to 31%, with the odds for a hold increasing near 70%, according to Prime Terminal data.
US economic data showed that consumers are becoming optimistic about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July improved from its preliminary reading of 54.4 to 55.2. At the same time, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% for one year and 3.3% for five years.
Joanne Hsu, the Director of the Survey of Consumers, wrote, “Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.”
Aside from this, geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets. Rising Oil prices are a headwind for Bullion. The escalation of the Gulf War keeps the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), above $84.00 per barrel
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold retraces below $4,050, eyes on $4,000
Gold’s price shifted downwards steadily after two days of strong gains, and sits below the $4,100 level. The momentum shifted back bearishly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under 50, signaling decreasing buying interest.
On the downside, initial support is at the July 24 low of $4,022. A breach of the latter exposes the psychologically important $4,000 level and the June 17 daily low of $3,959.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to reclaim $4,100, ahead of the July 22 daily high of $4,165, potentially testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $4,185. The July 6 peak at $4,202 is the next resistance level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY has round-tripped close to three Yen between 158.00 and 161.00.
- The US Treasury warned banks through the New York Fed to stand ready Friday.
- Three consecutive days count as one operation, so Friday costs Tokyo nothing.
Thursday's record Yen defence is the story everyone has written. Friday is the one that matters, because the Dollar has been sold in three separate lurches since the Tokyo morning, nobody has claimed any of them, and the US Treasury has told a number of banks through the New York Fed that it may enter the market and they should stand ready for further action. USD/JPY trades just under 159.00 late in the session, a Yen and a half beneath where the day began.
The second round is the cheap one
The pattern reads like an operation rather than a market. The London morning took the Dollar down to the 158.50 area in minutes and it was bought straight back; a second lurch landed around 13:15 GMT as the Treasury headline crossed; the session low near 158.00 printed hours later in the New York afternoon. Desks could not separate an operation from a liquidation.
That confusion is not a communication failure. It is the product. Having spent a record sum on Thursday to break the book, Tokyo can now hold the level with a fraction of the money, or with none at all, because every air pocket is deniable and traders have to price the possibility rather than the fact.
Three days count as one
International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidelines treat up to three episodes of intervention in six months as consistent with a free-floating exchange rate, and three consecutive days of operations count as a single episode. Finance ministry officials said in May that two windows remained before November once the April campaign was counted. Thursday and Friday are the second, and they are the same one, which means today's activity is free on the only meter Tokyo is watching.
Reserves are not the binding constraint either. Japan holds roughly 1.4 trillion Dollars, a little under 1.2 trillion of that in foreign currency assets, and the April to May campaign ran about 74 billion Dollars across a month without denting the pile. What is scarce is the permission rather than the ammunition, and one window is left.
The desk is American, the policy is not
The rate check that preceded Thursday's move came from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York acting as fiscal agent for the Treasury, not from the Federal Reserve on its own account. Participation by the central bank itself would require separate authorization from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and none has been granted. The coordination running through this episode is fiscal, and it stops at the border of the interest rate that created the problem.
The gesture is still the largest in fifteen years. The Treasury Secretary called the Yen badly undervalued on Thursday and said currency markets tend to overshoot, and the last direct American operation in this pair was March 2011, one billion Dollars split between the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the central bank's own portfolio, aimed at weakening the currency rather than supporting it.
Scale is what keeps the enthusiasm in proportion. The ESF's net position at the end of 2025 was 43.6 billion Dollars, less than Tokyo spent in an hour on Thursday. American money is a signal, and the signal is the point.
What Thursday actually bought
The operation itself is estimated near 53 billion Dollars from central bank account data, which would make it the largest single day Tokyo has ever run. It took the Dollar from the 163.00 handle to just under 158.00 inside an hour, sixty minutes after a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print of 1.5% annualised against a 2.1% consensus had knocked it off balance, into a book carrying net short Yen positions worth 11.65 billion Dollars.
Twelve hours later the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held at 1.00% on an 8-1 vote, one member preferring a quarter point more, while warning that underlying inflation could run above target. A 3.75% upper bound in Washington against 1.00% in Tokyo, a war that keeps Japan's energy import bill denominated in Dollars, and a government elected on spending, together make a machine that manufactures Yen sellers faster than any operation can retire them.
The week that decides it
Monday brings the first hard read on Thursday's size when the operation clears into central bank account data, alongside the manufacturing survey at 14:00 GMT with a consensus of 54. Wednesday carries private payrolls at 75K from 98K. Confirmation from the finance ministry itself does not arrive until its monthly figure late in August, which is exactly why the ambiguity is worth more to Tokyo than the reserves are.
Friday 7 August at 12:30 GMT is the release that matters. Nonfarm payrolls are seen at 91K against 57K prior, unemployment at 4.3% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% MoM. There is no FOMC meeting in August, so two payroll reports land before 16 September, where futures still price at least one increase at roughly 59%.
Levels and bias
Resistance: The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just under 161.50 capped Friday's rebound near 161.00 and stands as the first line. Above it sit 163.00 and the four-decade high short of 164.00.
Support: The 200-day EMA near 158.00 has been tested twice in two sessions, by Thursday's flush just beneath it and by Friday's low just above. Under that lie the 155.00 area and the year's base near 152.00.
Bias: Bearish while the 50-day EMA caps rallies and an unnamed bidder with an American co-signer is live in the market. A daily close beneath 158.00 opens the 155.00 area. A daily close back above 161.50 invalidates the call and says the market has counted Tokyo's remaining windows and found them wanting.
USD/JPY 5-minute chart
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- The US Dollar Index struggles near six-week lows as suspected Japanese intervention weighs on sentiment.
- Analysts see the Greenback's rally losing momentum after the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
- Traders await next week’s ISM PMIs and Nonfarm Payrolls data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to hold its early recovery on Friday as the fallout from suspected Japanese intervention and the possibility of direct action by the United States (US) keep the Greenback under pressure.
At the time of writing, the index trades around 99.96, easing from an intraday high of 100.45 and hovering near its lowest level in six weeks. The DXY is also on track to close July in negative territory.
The Greenback suffered a sharp sell-off on Thursday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) surged across the board. Reuters reported, citing a market source, that Japanese authorities likely conducted a large-scale US Dollar-selling, Yen-buying intervention during American trading hours.
Intervention concerns intensified on Friday after Reuters reported that the US Treasury had informed several banks that it may intervene in the Yen market and advised them to “stand ready for future action.”
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift towards limited forward guidance is also weighing on the US Dollar. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that “the USD rally from May has run its course, with DXY poised to retreat back into a 96-100 range.”
They warn that “the tailwind to USD from resilient US economic activity is outweighed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's failure to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy, increasing the risk the Fed falls behind the curve in containing inflation.”
The US central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who voted for a rate hike at this week’s meeting, said on Friday, “Without any policy restraint, inflation will likely continue to trend above target until there’s an unanticipated shock.”
On the data front, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 55.2 in July from 54.4, while the Consumer Expectations Index improved to 55.4 from 54. Meanwhile, one-year and five-year consumer inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
Looking ahead, next week’s US economic calendar features the July ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs), followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The US economy is expected to add 91K jobs in July, up from 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.22% | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.11% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.24% | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.14% | 0.41% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.15% | 0.17% | -0.01% | -0.05% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.20% | 0.15% | 0.71% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.36% | -0.17% | -0.20% | 0.35% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.20% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.52% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | 0.14% | 0.05% | -0.15% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | -0.41% | -0.52% | -0.71% | -0.35% | -0.52% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Tom Barkin said on Friday that it remains uncertain whether the current level of interest rates is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, according to an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Barkin also said he was unsure whether he would have joined the three Fed committee members who dissented in favor of a 25 basis-point rate increase at this week's policy meeting. His comments come after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, while Governors Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari favored an immediate hike.
Key quotes
It's a close call whether interest rates are high enough.
I don't know whether I would have joined the three colleagues who dissented in favor of a rate increase.
I'm skeptical that the labor market has strengthened meaningfully.
Price increases are moving through the economy unevenly."
- EUR/USD trades around 1.1530 after recovering from an early intraday sell-off.
- Eurozone HICP inflation increased to 2.9% YoY in July, while Core HICP accelerated to 2.5%.
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she would have preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike, supporting the US Dollar.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1530 area during Friday's American session, consolidating after a strong rally off intraday lows. The Euro found support from resilient Eurozone inflation data, although gains remain capped as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric boosts the US Dollar.
Preliminary data from Eurostat showed that the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.9% YoY in July, up from June's 2.8% reading. Meanwhile, core HICP accelerated to 2.5% YoY, above both the previous 2.4% and economists' forecasts, suggesting underlying price pressure remains persistent. On a monthly basis, headline HICP increased 0.2%, while core HICP was unchanged.
Labor market figures were more mixed. Germany's unemployment rate edged higher to 6.4% in June from 6.3%, while the number of unemployed increased by 6,000, slightly above expectations, pointing to some moderation in labor market conditions.
The US Dollar, however, continues to draw support from renewed hawkish comments by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Logan said monetary policy is not restraining the economy and argued that inflation is not on course to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% objective.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1531. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it trades above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the short-term SMA rising and comfortably stacked over the longer one, suggesting an ongoing constructive trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 67 hovers in overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum remains firm, even if the risk of a brief pause or shallow pullback is growing.
On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.1526, backed by nearby horizontal levels at 1.1518 and 1.1513 that collectively form a tight demand band just under spot. A deeper retracement would expose 1.1485, ahead of the 20-period SMA near 1.1457 and the 100-period SMA around 1.1423, where the broader bullish structure would be expected to attract dip-buying interest as long as these moving averages hold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- Silver falls as rising US Treasury yields offset support from a weaker US Dollar.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations continue to weigh on non-yielding metals.
- Technically, XAG/USD consolidates above the $55 support zone while holding below key moving averages.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday as rising US Treasury yields outweigh support from a weaker US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $57.50, down 2% on the day and on track to close July in negative territory.
The US Dollar stays under pressure following suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, hovers around 100, near six-week lows.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields move higher as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain tighter monetary policy or raise interest rates later this year. Hawkish Fed expectations weigh on non-yielding metals such as Silver, as higher borrowing costs increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets.
While macroeconomic headwinds persist, the technical outlook points to signs of near-term stabilization within the broader bearish structure.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD is consolidating above the $55 support area. However, the broader structure stays bearish as Silver trades below the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 sits below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued buying pressure. Meanwhile, the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that downside momentum is easing.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $58.50. A daily close above this level could support a recovery towards the 50-day SMA at $63, followed by the 100-day SMA near $70.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level around $55, with a deeper floor near $45 if selling resumes, keeping the metal vulnerable while it trades beneath its key moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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