Forex News
- XAG/USD rebounds from daily lows, but yields cap gains.
- Bullish RSI supports short-term recovery despite bearish market structure.
- Break below $63.28 exposes 50-day SMA and $56.57.
Silver price advanced by some 0.39% on Friday, capped by rising US yields, even though US data was softer than expected. XAG/USD trades at $64.70, after bouncing off daily lows of $63.51.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal remains downward biased despite signs of bottoming around the $54.70 area, near the yearly low of $54.77. Momentum is bullish in the short term, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but from a market structure perspective, it remains bearish.
For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for XAG/USD would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.76. Above, the first key resistance is the 200-day SMA at 71.64, ahead of the $72.00 mark
On the downside, if Silver drops the July 6 high of $63.28, the next support would be the 50-day SMA at $61.35. Below the next stop would be the August 3 low of $56.57, followed by the yearly low of $54.77.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- AUD/USD gains as weak Retail Sales pressure the Greenback.
- Bullish RSI supports upside, but 0.7094 caps momentum.
- Break above 0.7100 exposes 0.7190 and 0.7200 next.
The Australian Dollar advanced on Friday after US Retail Sales disappointed investors, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might not raise rates, as the economy showed tentative signs of weakness. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7083, up 0.34%
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows the AUD/USD is bullish, but buyers remain unable to decisively crack the January 29 high of 0.7094, which could open the door for further upside. Momentum shifted bullish since mid-July, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
From a market structure perspective, the pair has not shifted bullish until buyers regain the June 1 peak at 0.7190. Hence, the first AUD/USD resistance is 0.7100, followed by the latter. On further strength, the next stop is 0.7200.
On the downside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7058 is the first support. Once cleared, the 50-day SMA emerges as the next demand zone at 0.6991, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6937.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- US 10-year yield rises as Oil strength offsets weak sales.
- Retail Sales contraction weighs on the US Dollar and sentiment.
- Fed December hike bets hold as traders eye PMIs.
US Treasury yields advanced on Friday during the North American session after reversing their course following the release of US Retail Sales data, which disappointed investors. Meanwhile, the lack of news from the Middle East kept Oill prices higher, amid fears of a resumption of hostilities.
US yields climb as Oil stays bid, while weak sales pressure Dollar
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up by over 4 basis points to 4.692% amid a rise in Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, is up 1.50% at $82.39.
US Retail Sales disappointed investors, contracting -0.6% MoM, below forecasts of 0.1% growth and June’s 0.2%. The decline was spurred by a contraction in online sales, as Amazon moved its Prime Day from July to June. Also, gasoline prices fell.
Later, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell from 55.2 to 51.0 in August, showing waning consumer sentiment, while inflation expectations stayed stable.
The US 2-year T-note yield, the most sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell. Before recovering some ground, rising two basis points at 4.17%. So far, money markets have priced in a 63% chance of a rate hike by the Fed at the December 2026 meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, tumbled over 0.31% at 99.63, and for the week is poised to end almost flat.
The US docket will include housing data, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims, and Flash PMIs.
US 10-year Treasury yield chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- USD/MXN rebounds from 16.97 as buyers defend 17.00.
- Weak Retail Sales and sentiment deepen US Dollar pressure.
- Banxico minutes and Mexico Retail Sales drive next catalysts.
USD/MXN refreshed 24-month lows below 17.00 on Friday, but it has recovered some ground, with buyers stepping in and reclaiming the 17.00 level. Data from the United States (US) weighed on the Greenback, as consumer sentiment and Retail Sales deteriorated. The pair trades at 17.02, after bouncing off daily lows of 16.97.
USD/MXN holds near two-year lows as traders price out Fed hikes
US data proved benign on the inflation front, with consumer and producer prices edging lower. The Nonfarm Payrolls reading on August 7 and jobless claims on Thursday paint a picture of 'some' softening, but give Federal Reserve officials no reason to say labor market risks are tilted to the upside.
On Friday, Retail Sales disappointed investors, contracting 0.6% MoM, below forecasts of a 0.1% expansion, and June’s 0.2%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading in August showed some deterioration in sentiment among American households, as the Index dipped from 55.2 to 51, while inflation expectations remained little changed.
The backdrop prompted an aggressive pricing out for a Fed rate hike in 2026. For the September meeting, the odds are 32% for a hike and 68% for keeping interest rates steady.
In Mexico, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard stated that Mexico is asking the US to eliminate or reduce tariffs on the automobile industry. He argued that vehicles made in Japan, South Korea, Germany, or Morocco pay a 15% tariff, while those in Mexico face a 25% tariff.
“So, give me a discount, because I buy more parts of the United States from you than the other countries, I just mentioned”, Ebrard said.
Next week, Mexico’s economic schedule will be busy, with investors eyeing the release of the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) last meeting minutes and Retail Sales data. In the US, the docket will feature housing data, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims and Flash PMIs.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades near 17.0294, extending its slide beneath the clustered simple moving averages in the Moving Average Triple around 17.3775. Price action remains capped by the more recent descending resistance trend line, which comes in near 17.4197, while the Relative Strength Index (14) sits around 27 and drifts into oversold territory, hinting that bearish pressure is stretched but still dominant as long as the pair holds below these overhead barriers.
On the downside, the next notable structural floor aligns with the earlier downtrend break level around 15.6176, which acts as a distant but important support reference should the decline deepen. On the topside, a recovery would first need to reclaim the Moving Average Triple resistance near 17.3775, followed by a clearer break above the descending resistance trend line at 17.4197 to ease the bearish bias and open the way for a more sustained corrective rebound.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Societe Generale analysts highlight CNY’s firm trend, with the currency advancing to 6.7424, its strongest level since February 2023, on Dollar weakness and lower US yields. The PBoC reiterates an accommodative stance and targeted support while avoiding explicit rate or RRR cut signals, as 10-year CGB yields fall below 1.70%.
Policy support underpins currency strength
"CNY maintains steady appreciation path: The CNY advanced to 6.7424 today, its strongest level since February 2023, supported by broad-based dollar weakness and lower US yields."
"In its latest quarterly monetary policy implementation report, the PBoC reiterated its commitment to maintaining an appropriately accommodative policy stance and deploying targeted support measures when needed, while stopping short of explicitly signalling policy rate or RRR cuts."
"Chinese bonds continue to demonstrate notable resilience, with the 10y CGB yield falling below 1.70% for the first time in a year after the PBoC’s first mid-month overnight reverse repo (liquidity injection)."
"Separately, the Ministry of Finance successfully sold 50y special sovereign bonds at an average yield of 2.2831%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its slide on Friday, holding below 100.00 at fresh lows after a fourth straight soft US data print. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey fell to 51 in August from 55.2, well short of forecasts, capping a week that also brought cooler inflation and a weak Retail Sales report.
As a result, bets on a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike have faded further. The coming week hands the Dollar no top-tier data of its own. Instead, Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the July meeting take center stage, offering the detail behind the hawkish split that unsettled markets late last month.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.34% | -0.37% | -0.08% | -0.41% | -0.33% | -0.65% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.34% | -0.02% | 0.24% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.31% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.37% | 0.02% | 0.28% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.26% | 0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.24% | -0.28% | -0.32% | -0.26% | -0.59% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.41% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.32% | 0.07% | -0.23% | 0.29% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.00% | -0.04% | 0.26% | -0.07% | -0.31% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | 0.65% | 0.31% | 0.26% | 0.59% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 0.55% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.22% | -0.25% | 0.03% | -0.29% | -0.22% | -0.55% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Elsewhere, the United Kingdom (UK) delivers a full slate of jobs on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday while Japan opens the week on Sunday with second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). China's July activity data on Monday and a People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision on Thursday set the tone for the commodity currencies, and flash PMIs across the major economies close the week on Friday.
EUR/USD ends the week in the upper 1.1500s, at fresh two-month highs and within reach of 1.1600. The Eurozone calendar is light on surprises: the German ZEW survey lands on Tuesday. Friday's flash PMIs are the main domestic test. With the ECB content to wait, the pair stays a Dollar story.
GBP/USD trades near three-month peaks around 1.3560 as it closes the week. Tuesday brings the UK labor market report, Wednesday the July inflation figures, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), is seen accelerating toward 3%, and Friday Retail Sales. A hot inflation print would complicate the Bank of England's (BoE) path and could hand Cable fresh support, while a soft set of numbers would give it its first real domestic drag in weeks.
USD/JPY ends the week in the low-159.00s, with a weak Yen offsetting the softer Dollar after the pair's sharp swings earlier this month. Japan's own calendar is busier than usual with second-quarter GDP on Sunday, seen at 0.5% on the quarter, and National inflation figures later in the week.
AUD/USD trades around 0.7080, its best in two months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) having already met, attention turns to Thursday's jobs report, employment growth is expected to slow sharply from June's pace and to China. Monday's Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales and Thursday's PBoC decision will steer the Aussie as much as anything at home.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil ends the week in the low-$80s per barrel, firmer on Friday after a choppy stretch. With no major oil-specific data due, the crude story stays tied to the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has been slow to recover even after the waterway was declared open.
Gold ends the week near $4,380, closing in on $4,400 after a strong run built on the sliding Dollar and fading Fed hike bets. With no top-tier US data due, Wednesday's FOMC Minutes are the key event: a dovish read would extend the move.
Commerzbank notes that the Kospi has rebounded 29.5% from its 30 July low, supported by strong tech earnings and improved sentiment toward semiconductor and memory chipmakers. They note USD/KRW has retreated nearly 8.9% from its July high as exporters’ repatriation and foreign portfolio inflows bolster the Korean Won. Despite a modest 0.3% rise to 1,421 on a stronger Dollar, KRW is the second-strongest Asian currency this year, up 1.5% versus USD and outperforming the regional ex-Japan average of -2.1%. Further volatility moderation in equities may offer near-term KRW support.
USD/KRW retreats from July peak
"The South Korean equity benchmark Kospi rose 3.6% yesterday, following a 3.7% rally on Wednesday. The index has now rebounded by 29.5% from its 30 July low. The recovery was driven by strong tech earnings, which boosted market sentiment toward semiconductor names and lifted South Korean chipmakers."
"This combination of recovering semiconductor sentiment and easing Kospi volatility has enticed foreign investors to re-enter the market. Since 30 July, foreign investors have net bought USD1.9bn of South Korean equities. A further moderation in volatility could support additional portfolio inflows and provide near-term support for the KRW."
"USD/KRW rose 0.3% to 1,421 yesterday, driven by a stronger USD. Nonetheless, the pair has fallen by nearly 8.9% from its July high of 1,559, as exporters' repatriation activity and foreign portfolio inflows continue to support the KRW."
"Year-to-date, KRW is up 1.5% vs the USD, well above the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -2.1%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD rebounds from daily lows, challenging 100-day SMA resistance.
- Bullish RSI raises reversal risk after reclaiming 1.1500.
- Break above 1.1629 exposes 1.1685 and 1.1700 next.
The EUR/USD pair registers gains of over 0.32% on Friday as traders face key resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1567, as bulls eye the 1.1600 psychological figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1564 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1526.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD market structure suggests that the downtrend remains intact. The successive lower highs and lower lows have been respected, but since July 30, when the pair reclaimed the 1.1500 area, the risk of a bullish reversal has increased.
Although the pair topped around 1.1550-60, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests bullish momentum is building. That said, EUR/USD might turn bullish if traders clear key resistance levels.
Upwards, the 200-day SMA at 1.1629 is the next area of interest. Once surpassed, the next cycle high pending is the May 29 high at 1.1685. If those two levels are removed, EUR/USD could be headed toward 1.1700, putting the April 17 high at 1.1849 into play ahead of the 1.1900 area.
On the flip side, if the shared currency drops below 1.1500, a move to the 50-day SMA at 1.1465 is on the cards. The next demand zone would be 1.1400.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.36% | 1.02% | -0.54% | -0.28% | 0.07% | 0.66% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.24% | 1.11% | -0.52% | -0.22% | 0.10% | 0.69% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.24% | 1.29% | -0.27% | 0.02% | 0.34% | 0.92% | |
| JPY | -1.02% | -1.11% | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.95% | -0.77% | -0.15% | |
| CAD | 0.54% | 0.52% | 0.27% | 1.24% | 0.29% | 0.47% | 1.25% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.95% | -0.29% | 0.32% | 0.88% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.34% | 0.77% | -0.47% | -0.32% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | -0.66% | -0.69% | -0.92% | 0.15% | -1.25% | -0.88% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
MUFG’s Asia FX Weekly highlights that China’s July activity indicators, following weak Q2 GDP, will be central for the Chinese Yuan and regional FX. The authors stress ongoing weakness in fixed asset investment and property-sector challenges, and question whether domestic demand is stabilizing and whether PBOC will tolerate continued CNY strength. They also note PBOC has been guiding USD/CNY lower via its daily fixing.
China data and fixing steer CNY
"In China, attention will centre on July activity indicators, following a weak Q2 GDP print."
"Fixed asset investment is likely to remain weak, underscoring ongoing challenges in the property sector."
"The key question for FX markets is whether domestic demand shows signs of stabilization and whether PBOC is comfortable allowing continued strength in CNY."
"Any weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data could weigh on regional risk sentiment and those regional currencies that are closely interlinked with China’s economic outlook."
"PBOC has broadly guided USD/CNY lower via its daily fixing mechanism."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY is little changed in the low-159s on Friday, holding its ground after a volatile stretch.
- US Consumer Sentiment fell sharply in August, missing forecasts and adding to a soft week of US data.
- A weaker Yen is offsetting the softer Dollar, keeping the pair pinned near current levels.
USD/JPY is holding near 159.40 at the time of writing, with little change on the day. A weak United States (US) Consumer Sentiment reading nudged the Dollar lower, but the pair has stayed close to where it started.
The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 51 in August from 55.2, well below the 54.5 that markets expected. The Expectations component fell to 50.6. It is the latest soft US number in a week that also brought cooler inflation and a weak Retail Sales report.
Taken together, that run of data has taken some steam out of the US Dollar (USD), with the Dollar Index (DXY) lower on the day. On its own, a softer Dollar would usually pull USD/JPY down with it.
The boost from the record joint US–Japan intervention in late July and early August has faded, and with no follow-up from Tokyo, speculators have gone back to selling the Japanese Yen (JPY). That leaves USD/JPY caught between a soft Dollar and a soft Yen, with neither side able to take control.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.38, maintaining a neutral near-term tone as it holds above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 159.33 but remains capped beneath the 100-period SMA at 160.20. The pair is hovering just under the nearby horizontal barrier at 159.39, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 56 suggests mildly constructive momentum without reaching overbought conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 159.39, followed by the higher horizontal level at 159.58, before the more significant 100-period SMA at 160.20 comes into view as a broader cap. On the downside, initial support is clustered around the 20-period SMA at 159.33, ahead of the horizontal floors at 159.20 and 159.10, which together form a shallow demand band protecting the recent consolidation area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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