Forex News
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report European natural gas prices have bounced higher as Middle East tensions disrupt Qatari LNG exports. They flag QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure, reduced EU LNG imports and below-average storage levels. With heatwaves complicating injections, they expect tighter-than-usual storage at the start of winter and elevated gas prices with potential spikes through the heating season.
European gas storage lags seasonal norms
"European natural gas prices have also bounced higher this morning, following the renewed tensions in the Middle East. The European gas market is looking increasingly vulnerable as we head into the winter."
"QatarEnergy has reportedly extended its force majeure for buyers in Asia and Europe to as far as the end of September. There have also been reports of QatarEnergy looking to subcharter an LNG carrier until the end of October, given the ongoing disruptions to Qatari LNG exports."
"EU LNG imports are on track to fall a little more than 25% YoY in July, which is making the job of refilling storage more difficult. EU gas storage is 56% full at the moment, below the 10-year seasonal average of 72%. Heatwaves across Europe will only add to the difficulty in filling up storage ahead of the winter."
"Tighter-than-usual storage at the start of the heating season suggests that gas prices will remain elevated through the winter, with the risk of spikes higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The US Federal Reserve is seen leaving the policy rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting in July.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows there is a considerable chance for an unexpected rate hike.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments could drive the US Dollar’s valuation.
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, another pivotal meeting for markets to gauge the stance of policymakers as they assess how rising crude Oil prices could impact the inflation outlook.
Markets widely expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting in July.
However, this decision is not fully priced in, with the CME FedWatch Tool pointing to a nearly 30% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike, compared to just 15% a week ago.
After falling about 35% from May to the end of June, crude Oil prices turned north again in July. With the United States (US) and Iran exchanging strikes for nearly two consecutive weeks, the naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz came to a halt. As a result, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $90 from $67 at the beginning of July. Although news of the US and Iran pausing strikes helped WTI correct lower, it’s still up nearly 20% this month.
Fed hike odds rebound as oil-driven inflation worries resurface
Strategists at OCBC note that the perceived risk of near-term Fed tightening has shifted meaningfully recently. They point out that the probability of a July Fed rate hike “fell to just 10% following benign US inflation data but has since rebounded to 35% as higher oil prices reignited inflation concerns.” In their view, “a hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55bp of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027.”
However, OCBC cautions that “a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function.”
When will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference starting at 18:30 GMT.
If the Fed announces a 25 bps rate hike, that would be seen as a hawkish surprise and boost the USD, causing EUR/USD to turn south. If the US central bank decides to hold rates steady, an important factor will be the potential number of dissents on the hawkish side.
US Dollar outlook hinges on Fed, and a surprise is on the cards
Analysts at MUFG observe that the recent pullback in Oil has eased some of the urgency around further tightening, noting that “in the near-term, the correction lower in energy prices will dampen rate hike expectations for central banks ahead of the Fed’s, BoE’s and BoJ’s latest policy meeting this week.” Against that backdrop, they reiterate that “we have been assuming that the Fed would leave rates on hold this week but one can’t completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike.”
MUFG adds that any policy surprise could have swift currency implications: “If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise and hikes rates this week it would give the US dollar renewed upward momentum.”
In case the Fed leaves the policy rate unchanged as anticipated and refrains from making a significant change to the policy statement, which would be in line with Fed Chair Warsh’s insistence of avoiding forward guidance, the immediate market reaction is likely to remain muted. In this scenario, investors will scrutinize comments from Warsh in the press conference.
During his congressional testimony earlier this month, Warsh adopted a neutral tone with a score of 5.4/10 on the FXS Speechtracker. By calling recent inflation data an “imperfect gauge” and stressing that whether AI proves inflationary is “up to the Fed,” the remarks framed technology-driven price shifts as manageable one-offs rather than a persistent inflation threat, while acknowledging disruptive transition risks. If Warsh downplays the impact of the recent increase in Oil prices on inflation and reiterates the favorable growth outlook, markets could see that as a dovish sign and cause the USD to lose interest. Conversely, EUR/USD could turn south in case Warsh makes it clear that they will need to take action soon to tame inflation, even if the pair has an initial bullish reaction to a policy hold.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD has been fluctuating in a relatively tight range since the beginning of the month, but there are no signs of a bullish reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the day chart failed to clear the 50 threshold three times since early July and the descending trend line drawn from late-January stays intact.”
“On the downside, 1.1280 (static level) aligns as the next key support ahead of 1.1160 (static level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, static level). Looking north, the first resistance area could be spotted at 1.1460-1.1490 (50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), upper arm of the Bollinger Band) before 1.1570 (100-day SMA, descending trend line) and 1.1635 (200-day SMA).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Michael Pfister of Commerzbank argues that subdued imported inflation and low exchange rate pass-through give the Swiss National Bank (SNB) little reason to tighten policy. Despite a recent uptick in prices, he expects inflation to rise only slightly, if at all, and reiterates a forecast that SNB interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2027, supporting a persistent rate differential versus the Euro area.
Low pass-through underpins steady SNB stance
"Although inflation has increased again in Switzerland in recent months, the rise has been smaller than expected. Our analysis suggests one possible reason for this: the exchange rate effect is smaller than is often assumed."
"We therefore stand by our forecast that inflation is likely to increase only slightly, if at all."
"Relatively subdued inflationary pressure is one of the main reasons for our long-standing forecast that the SNB will leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2027."
"As our model suggests that imported inflationary pressure is moderate, the interest rate differential between the euro area and Switzerland is likely to persist for some time."
"EUR/CHF should benefit from this in the medium term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
UOB’s SGD NEER model shows the index at 1.68% above the midpoint of the policy band, after ending the previous session 171 basis points above it. The model is expected to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the midpoint today, implying a USD/SGD trading range of 1.2898–1.2963. With the S$NEER near the upper end of the policy band and MAS maintaining a mildly restrictive stance, the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive SGD strength may increase.
SGD NEER guides intraday band
"Meanwhile, the S$NEER index in our model fell by more than 10 bps, ending the session 171 bps above the midpoint of the policy band."
"This morning, our SGD NEER model is at 1.68% from the mid-point and it is likely to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the mid-point for today's session."
"This implies a USD/SGD range of between 1.2898 and 1.2963."
"With the S$NEER trading closer to the upper end of the policy band and the MAS policy stance likely remaining mildly restrictive following the cumulative tightening moves in Apr 2026 and Jul 2026 (current estimated slope: 1.25% p.a.), the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive S$NEER strength could rise, thereby helping to keep domestic liquidity conditions relatively ample."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold holds above $4,000 as traders await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
- Renewed attacks in the Middle East lift Oil prices, keeping inflation concerns in focus.
- The technical picture remains bearish with XAU/USD holding below multiple moving averages.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates above $4,000 on Wednesday as price action remains choppy amid growing caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, while the war in the Middle East intensifies again after a brief lull.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, prompting US President Donald Trump to threaten heavy military action against Tehran. Separately, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it carried out precision strikes with Saudi Arabia against Iran-backed groups in Iraq targeting US forces and Saudi Oil facilities.
Oil prices reversed course following the latest attacks, snapping a three-day sell-off. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $83, up more than 5.5% on the day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, supported by Fed rate-hike expectations and tensions in the Middle East.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 GMT.
The US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, a rate hike cannot be ruled out amid heightened energy-driven inflation risks.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 31% chance of a 25-basis-point increase (bps). Higher borrowing costs typically reduce demand for Gold by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets.
Even if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, Gold may struggle to stage a recovery as policymakers are expected to maintain a hawkish stance while assessing the inflationary impact of elevated Oil prices. If the Fed signals that a rate hike could come in the next few months, XAU/USD could face renewed selling pressure.
Technical analysis: sellers retain control below key daily SMAs
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias as it trades below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is near 44 and remains below the neutral 50 level, while the shrinking green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest that sellers retain control.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA around $4,070, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,202. Further up, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,446 and $4,490, respectively, form a key resistance zone.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the psychological $4,000 mark, with a break below this level exposing the next structural support around $3,850.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- Donald Trump says the United States will strike Iran again in response to attacks on US targets in Jordan.
- The US president also says he will let Iran "keep talking" while still vowing military action.
- The comments come after multiple ballistic missiles targeting US forces in the Middle East were intercepted.
According to Reuters, United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a phone interview with Fox News on Wednesday that the US would carry out further strikes against Iran in response to attacks targeting US positions in Jordan. He also said he would "let them keep talking," suggesting that ongoing discussions would not prevent military action.
The interview was not broadcast, but a Fox News reporter summarized Trump's remarks. The comments mark a further escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran as geopolitical tensions remain elevated across the Middle East.
Market reaction
Investors continue to monitor developments closely, as any further military escalation between the United States and Iran could fuel risk aversion across financial markets and boost demand for safe-haven assets.
The US Dollar (USD) reacted with modest gains following Trump's comments, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.04% on the day to trade around 101.45 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Oil prices move sharply higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surging 6.4% to $83.40 per barrel as investors price in the risk of further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.45% | 0.18% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.39% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.40% | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.39% | -0.40% | -0.52% | -0.53% | -0.29% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.22% | 0.29% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.40% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Canadian Dollar gains modestly as surging Oil prices offer support.
- A stronger US Dollar and diverging Fed-BoC expectations limit the Loonie’s upside.
- USD/CAD consolidates below the 21-day SMA as traders await the Fed decision.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) modestly outperforms the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, drawing support from a rebound in Oil prices as the war in the Middle East intensifies again following a brief calm. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4093, trapped within a week-old range.
US President Donald Trump threatened heavy military action against Iran on Wednesday following attacks on US targets in Jordan.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $83, up more than 5% on the day. Higher Oil prices typically support the Canadian Dollar due to Canada’s position as a major crude exporter.
However, elevated Oil prices provide only limited support to the Loonie as a broadly stronger US Dollar remains the main driver of the pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, rebounding from an intraday low of 101.24.
Diverging monetary policy expectations add another headwind for the Canadian currency, with traders seeing a greater chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates than the Bank of Canada (BoC) in response to energy-driven inflation risks.
The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it announces its policy decision at 18:00 GMT. Still, a rate hike cannot be ruled out, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 31% probability of a 25-basis-point increase.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds a modestly bullish near-term bias as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at roughly 1.4045 and 1.3893, respectively.
The pair is still capped by the 21-day SMA around 1.4123 overhead, suggesting a consolidative tone rather than a clean breakout, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative but has been edging higher, hinting that downside momentum is fading.
On the topside, a sustained move above the 21-day SMA at 1.4123 would open the way for further gains, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure. On the downside, initial support is seen near the immediate price pivot around 1.4090/1.4094, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.4045. A deeper pullback would look to the horizontal support zone near 1.4000, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3893 acting as a more distant structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
BNY reports that renewed Iranian–U.S. hostilities lifted Brent above 3%, reviving the inflation channel but remaining secondary to Fed and AI valuation drivers. The bank notes the U.S. interception of Iranian missiles and retaliatory strikes, but argues these Oil price moves are unlikely to materially affect today’s Fed decision, keeping focus on policy and risk assets.
Geopolitical flare-up lifts Brent prices
"The brief pause in hostilities has ended. Iran launched missiles toward U.S. forces in Jordan, while U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Brent rose more than 3%, reviving the inflation channel."
"The move is unhelpful but remains secondary for sentiment: the dominant drivers are now the Fed, AI valuations, and positioning rather than geopolitics alone."
"The U.S. said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile attack on military bases in the Middle East, ending a brief lull and heightening the risk of renewed escalation. Oil prices have reacted, but we don’t see the moves materially affecting today’s Fed decision."
"U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple missiles from Iran in a surprise attack, all of which were intercepted, while U.S. and Saudi forces also struck Iran-backed militants in Iraq after 30 drone attacks in the prior 72 hours."
"Iran’s state media said the IRGC fired missiles at a U.S. airbase and command center in response to U.S. actions. President Trump said diplomacy with Tehran may still progress, but reiterated threats of force."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has hired active domestic bond managers for the first time in five years to improve expertise and diversification amid volatile JGB markets. The fund’s domestic bond portfolio has suffered losses despite strong overall returns. Officials are urging more domestic investment, which Yu argues should, over time, provide support for the Japanese Yen (JPY).
GPIF active shift seen Yen supportive
"Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) hired active domestic bond funds for the first time in five years, appointing three firms in May – Asset Management One, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management – to manage Japanese bonds."
"The move aims to improve expertise amid heightened volatility in Japan’s debt market; GPIF is seeking benchmark-beating returns and better diversification of risk assets."
"GPIF’s domestic bond portfolio has been under pressure from falling bond prices and market swings, losing 5.1% in the year ended March 31, even as total assets returned 16.5%."
"The decision comes as investors face inflation, higher government spending, and a BOJ tightening cycle viewed by some as too slow."
"Officials have also urged GPIF to invest more in domestic assets, which in time will support the JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that speculative net long positions in LME Copper increased notably in the latest COTR data, supported by tight supply and low inventories. They note broader sentiment has improved, while positioning changes in Aluminium and Zinc were more modest, with only small increases in net long exposure among money managers.
LME positioning reflects tighter fundamentals
"The latest COTR report shows that the speculative net long position in LME copper increased by 12,668 lots to 60,771 lots in the week ending 24 July."
"The move was driven by increased participation from both long and short positions."
"Positioning changes in other base metals were more modest, with money managers increasing their net long in LME aluminium by just 96 lots to 59,264 lots, while the net long in zinc increased by 4,107 lots to 39,736 lots."
"Tight supply conditions and low inventories lifted broader market sentiment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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