Forex News
- WTI holds gains over 10% as supply fears increased after recent Trump threats on Iran.
- Trump warned of intensified military action against Iran over the coming weeks, offering no clarity on reopening Hormuz.
- Iran’s Gharibabadi said Tehran is finalizing the draft and will soon begin talks with Oman.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price steadies around $103.80 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. WTI price gained over 10% as supply concerns intensified following renewed Iran threats from US President Donald Trump.
President Trump warned of intensified military action on Iran over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. But he offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.
Reports indicate that Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol to oversee transit through the Strait of Hormuz, though optimism quickly faded. In an interview with Sputnik, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran is finalizing the draft and will soon begin talks with Oman to establish a joint framework.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom (UK) is hosting virtual discussions with around 40 countries to explore ways to reopen the Hormuz. The US is not participating, after President Trump said it is not America’s responsibility to reopen the route, urging European nations to “go get your own oil.”
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/GBP flatlines around 0.8720 on Friday after bouncing from 0.8700 support.
- The pair has rallied nearly 1% over the last three weeks, despite the risk-off sentiment.
- The Euro is likely to require an additional impulse to breach resistance at 0.8740.
EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found support above 0.8700 earlier this week, before stalling halfway through the last few days’ range around 0.8720. Technical indicators show waning bullish momentum, while thinned market volumes suggest that further consolidation is the most likely outcome on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) remains on track for a nearly 0.5% weekly gain and is nearly 1% up over the last three weeks. The risk-averse sentiment stemming from the war in Iran has been weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Still, the positive manufacturing activity and the moderate uptick in inflation seen in the Eurozone earlier this week have provided some support to the Euro (EUR), while UK manufacturing PMI failed to convince investors.
Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP's near-term bias remains mildly bullish, although technical indicators point to a weakening momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index at 58 stays above its midline, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips marginally below the zero line, and the MACD line has crossed below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.
Bears will have to breach Wednesday's and Tuesday's lows, at 0.8705 and 0.8676, respectively, to undermine the near-term bullish structure and expose the 0.8630-08635 area, which provided support to the pair on March 23, 24, and 26.
On the upside, bulls are likely to require additional impulse to break resistance at the 0.8740 area (March 3 and April 1 highs), and shift the focus to the key area between 0.8790 and 0.8800, which capped bulls several times in December and early March
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.12% | 0.13% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.13% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.20% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.10% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.00% | -0.01% | 0.12% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | -0.01% | -0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.12% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/JPY edges higher to near 184.15 in Friday’s early European session.
- The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The initial support level is located at 183.50; the first upside barrier emerges at 184.80.
The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength around 184.15 during the early European session on Friday. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers provide some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank’s next interest rate move will very likely be an increase, although it is still too early to say when it will start hiking.
On the other hand, escalations in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven demand, supporting the JPY. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 182.10 and consolidates just under the upper Bollinger Band, indicating sustained upside pressure after the recent advance. The Bollinger middle band around 183.50 now tracks below spot and acts as dynamic trend support, while the latest RSI reading just above 54 confirms positive, but not overextended, momentum consistent with a grinding uptrend rather than a climax move.
Immediate support emerges at the 183.50 Bollinger middle band, followed by the 182.50–182.10 area where recent lows converge with the 100-day EMA. A break below this zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement toward 181.50. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the recent upper Bollinger Band region around 184.80, with a daily close above this threshold opening the door toward the 186.00 area where prior band highs cluster and upside risk would intensify.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 60K in March.
- The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%.
- Markets could have a delayed reaction to employment data due to the Good Friday holiday.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Investors will scrutinize the underlying details of the employment report to assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to consider an interest-rate hike later in the year. Still, the immediate market reaction could remain subdued, with trading volumes staying thin on the Good Friday holiday.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 60K following the disappointing 92K decrease recorded in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to decrease to 3.7% from 3.8% in the previous month.
Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect a moderate 30K increase in NFP in March.
“The reversal of weather and strike effects should result in a payrolls composition similar to the end of 2025, with outsized healthcare support. We also look for the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.4%, with a risk of moving higher. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased a subdued 0.2% m/m, translating to 3.6% y/y,” they add.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported earlier in the week that employment in the private sector rose by 62K in March. This print followed the 66K (revised from 63K) increase reported in February. Assessing the report’s findings, “overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. Meanwhile, the Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey came in at 48.7 in March, pointing to an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector payrolls.
Danske Bank Research Team also projects the NFP to come in at 30K and see the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.5%. “Recent indicators, including declines in daily job postings and weekly private sector employment growth, point to a softer labour market,” they note.
How will the US March Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The USD outperformed its rivals in March as it benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere and growing expectations for a hawkish tilt in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook, with surging crude Oil prices reviving fears over inflation getting out of control. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained more than 2% in March and experienced heightened volatility in the first days of April.
While speaking at an event organized by Harvard University earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that there is tension between the Fed’s two mandates, keeping maximum employment and stable prices, and said that they are in a good place to wait and see how the current situation plays out. Commenting on labor market conditions, Powell said that job creation is very low and that it's challenging to enter the job market.
Meanwhile, NY Fed President John Williams acknowledged that the job market is sending signals, adding that the low hiring rate might be feeding into economic pessimism.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 80% probability that the Fed policy rate will remain unchanged at the range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2026. In early March, markets were projecting a 92% chance that the Fed would cut the policy rate at least once this year.
A positive surprise in the NFP, with a reading of at least 70K, could cause markets to reassess the possibility of a Fed rate hike and boost the USD. Conversely, a print below 50K, especially if combined with an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, could make it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals and help EUR/USD hold its ground. Nonetheless, unless a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a steady decline in Oil prices, a steady uptrend in EUR/USD could be difficult to come by, even if the NFP misses analysts’ estimates.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact despite the latest recovery attempt. The pair remains below a descending trend line drawn from late-January and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreats toward 40 after failing to clear the 50 midline earlier in the week.”
“On the downside, 1.1430-1.1400 (lower limit of the Bollinger Band, static level) aligns as a key support before 1.1300 (round level) and 1.1220 (static level). Looking north, immediate resistance could be spotted at 1.1600 (round level, descending trend line) ahead of the 1.1680-1.1700 region, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA align.”
(This story was updated on April 3 at 07:10 GMT to reflect a consensus change in the annual Average Hourly Earnings to 3.7%)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Japanese Yen faces challenges as uncertainty persists over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.
- BoJ’s Koji Nakamura told parliament that higher oil prices pose risks to economic growth and could impact outlook.
- The US Dollar holds ground on safe-haven demand following recent Iran threats from President Trump.
USD/JPY remains in the positive territory for the third successive day after registering over 0.5% gains on Thursday, currently trading around 159.60 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair moves little due to thin trading activity amid the Good Friday holiday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) as uncertainty builds around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. While the Japanese central bank has hinted at a potential rate hike this month, markets remain uncertain about whether it will offer clear forward guidance ahead of its April 28 policy meeting.
According to Reuters, a senior BoJ official indicated on Friday that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if its economic projections remain on track, reinforcing a tightening bias even as recent surveys highlight growing strain on firms from rising fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions.
Meanwhile, BoJ Executive Director Koji Nakamura told parliament that although higher oil prices pose risks to economic growth, they could also lift underlying inflation by boosting long-term inflation expectations.
The USD/JPY pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising safe-haven demand following the recent Iran threats from US President Donald Trump. Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- USD/CAD holds firm above 1.3900 on track for its third consecutive weekly gain.
- Investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report amid holiday-thinned market volumes.
- Canada's trade deficit rose to a six-month high in February.
The US Dollar (USD) keeps the upper hand against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, trading near 1.3925 at the moment of writing, with the 1.3966 year-to-date high at a relatively short distance. The pair is on track for its third consecutive weekly rally, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weighed by the risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran war.
Trading volumes are expected to remain low, with most markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday bank holiday. During the US session, however, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report is likely to attract significant interest and might trigger wild FX movements due to the limited liquidity conditions
US Payrolls are seen bouncing up in March
The market consensus anticipates US net employment to have increased by 60K in March àttyially offsetting the 92K decline posted in February. The positive ADP employment reading seen earlier this week and the strong US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) have contributed to boosting investors' expectations about March’s payroll figures.
Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East continues, keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued. The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a proposal by Bahrain authorizing countries to use “all defensive means necessary” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an initiative that has been rejected by veto-wielding Chinese representatives.
Data released on Thursday showed that Canada’s Merchandise Trade Balance deficit widened to a six-month high at CAD 5.74 billion i (USD 14.4 billion) in February, as imports increased 8.4% to an all-time high of CAD 72.05 billion, offsetting the 6.4% rise in exports.
Also on Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, warned that the recent surge in Oil prices might complicate the central bank’s rate-setting activity in a context ot a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market. The impact on the US Dollar, however, was minimal.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 03, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 60K
Previous: -92K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 03, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.4%
Previous: 4.4%
Source:
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 4:
The US Dollar (USD) holds positive ground around 100.00 heading into the European trading session. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday.
Markets might turn cautious ahead of the key US employment report for March. Traders expected the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to rise by 60,000 following the disappointing 92,000 decrease seen in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4% during the same period.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.09% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.09% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump touted the destruction of a bridge in Tehran, Iran. He warned that there was “much more to follow” and urged Tehran to “make a deal before it is too late.” Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”
Trump signed an executive order that could slap up to 100% tariffs on certain imported medicines from companies that don't reach deals with his administration in the coming months. A White House statement said that the new levy applies to patented drugs made in countries that lack tariff deals with the US by companies that don’t have most-favored-nation-pricing agreements with the administration.
The latest data published by RatingDog showed on Friday that China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February. This figure came in weaker than the expectations of 53.7.
AUD/USD gains ground near 0.6910 in the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1535 in the European morning on Friday. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 81.0% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the upcoming April 30 meeting, according to the ECB Watch Tool.
GBP/USD trades in positive territory around 1.3230 in Friday’s early European session after falling 0.65% on Thursday to close near 1.3220.
USD/JPY posts modest gains near 159.65. The pair faces volatility driven by intervention threats from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the government is ready to take "decisive action" to counter volatile speculative moves.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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