Forex News
- EUR/USD rises 0.37% to 1.1613 after rebounding from lows near 1.1484.
- Trump's five-day truce announcement boosted risk appetite and pressured the US Dollar.
- Falling Oil prices and lower yields offset lingering fears over Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
The Euro recovers some ground versus the US Dollar on Monday, up by 0.37%, after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day truce following productive talks between Tehran and Washington, as revealed on his social network. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1613 after bouncing off daily lows near 1.1484.
Euro climbs as easing war fears hit Oil, Treasury yields and the Greenback
Geopolitics remain in the driver's seat, relegating economic data to the sidelines. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced that the US will obliterate Iran if it were reluctant to open the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran escalated the conflict, launching two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia's island in the Indian Ocean, suggesting it's capable of longer-distance attacks, putting Central Europe within reach.
Before Wall Street opened, Trump de-escalated the conflict, saying that "I am pleased to report that the USA, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive talks.
Although Iran's media disputed Trump's statement, Pakistani Media revealed that Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf discussed the Strait of Hormuz issue with US officials in Islamabad.
The improvement in risk appetite sent US equity markets rallying, US Treasury yields falling, and Oil prices plunging. The US Dollar tumbled due to its positive correlation with Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar versus six others, is down 0.37% at 99.13, after hitting a daily high of 100.14.
Despite this, CBS reported that US officials said that the Strait of Hormuz is dotted with about a dozen Iranian mines.
An absent economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic left traders adrift on comments by Fed officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that heightened global uncertainty—specifically the Middle East conflict—made the scenario analysis more relevant than relying on a single baseline economic outlook.
She drew two scenarios for the US economy. In the first one, geopolitical tensions ease quickly, leading to a downward correction in energy prices and a one-time inflationary jump that could be temporary.
On the second one, Daly warned that a prolonged conflict could change the macroeconomic scenario, as sustained disruptions to energy supply could trigger sustained inflation while weighing on economic activity.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said at its best, the inflation progress had stalled, and the Fed is waiting for that to go away. He remains optimistic that rates may decrease by the end of 2026 and that inflation is the primary risk.
On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated that it is premature to determine the impact of the energy price shock resulting from the Iran conflict on inflation. He added that he continues to believe interest rate reductions are appropriate to bolster the labour market.
Fed and the ECB keep rates steady
Last week, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, delivered hawkish holds amid a jump in energy prices.
In the case of the Federal Reserve, the swaps markets scaled back dovish bets, and they're not expecting a rate reduction this year.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting stands at nearly 64%. According to Reuters, sources indicated that policymakers may discuss potential interest rate increases if the Middle East conflict persists.
For the June meeting, the odds are higher at 74%, as investors have priced in nearly 35 basis points of increases, according to Prime Market Terminal.
Euro Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.61% | 0.43% | 1.43% | 0.33% | 1.40% | 2.15% | 1.57% | |
| EUR | -1.61% | -1.15% | -0.20% | -1.26% | -0.20% | 0.54% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.43% | 1.15% | 0.98% | -0.11% | 0.95% | 1.71% | 1.14% | |
| JPY | -1.43% | 0.20% | -0.98% | -1.06% | -0.01% | 0.72% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.33% | 1.26% | 0.11% | 1.06% | 1.06% | 1.81% | 1.26% | |
| AUD | -1.40% | 0.20% | -0.95% | 0.01% | -1.06% | 0.74% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | -2.15% | -0.54% | -1.71% | -0.72% | -1.81% | -0.74% | -0.55% | |
| CHF | -1.57% | 0.04% | -1.14% | -0.17% | -1.26% | -0.20% | 0.55% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1614. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the descending resistance trend line drawn from 1.2086, while price remains capped under the clustered simple moving averages around 1.1730, which now act as an overhead barrier. The latest RSI reading near 48 stays under the 50 midline after rebounding from oversold territory seen below 30 in recent sessions, indicating that bearish pressure has eased but upside momentum is not yet established.
Initial resistance emerges at 1.1640, aligning with the broken area inside the downtrend, followed by 1.1690 and the moving average zone near 1.1730, where the broader bearish structure would be challenged on a daily close above. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1570, ahead of 1.1510, with a deeper floor near 1.1420; a break through these levels would reopen the downtrend and expose further weakness.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The NZD/USD holds near 0.5860, supported by improved global risk sentiment.
- Donald Trump’s Iran de-escalation signals weigh on safe-haven demand, supporting the Kiwi.
- A steady US Dollar Index limits upside as markets reassess the Federal Reserve outlook.
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 price region at the start of the Asian session, having receded almost half its intraday gains late in the American session.
The earlier gains came amid a boost in global risk appetite, which rose after Donald Trump signaled a potential de-escalation of tensions with Iran, stating that talks show “major points of agreement” and expressing hopes for a meeting soon. The headlines reduced demand for safe-haven assets and supported risk-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi.
On the US side, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading below the 100.00 mark at 99.10, as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar finds additional support from stable sentiment in Asia and firm commodity dynamics, though gains remain capped by lingering uncertainty about global growth and trade conditions.
Short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5856. The near-term bias leans neutral-to-bullish as price holds above clustered horizontal support and stabilizes after the recent pullback. Spot is trading just above the 20-period Moving Average (0.5837), while the 100-period Moving Average around 0.5884 still caps the broader recovery, outlining a shallow upside grind rather than a clear trend. The Relative Strength Index at 53 signals balanced but improving momentum, consistent with buyers attempting to regain control without entering overbought territory.
Immediate support sits at 0.5842, reinforced by the nearby 20-period Moving Average, with a break exposing the next downside level at 0.5804, followed by 0.5763. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5881, aligning with the 100-period Moving Average overhead and acting as the key barrier for a more decisive bullish extension. A sustained move above 0.5881 would open the way toward higher levels, while failure to hold 0.5842 would shift focus back to the lower supports and weaken the nascent positive tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Standard Chartered economists argue that higher Oil and commodity prices are driving a cost‑push reflation process in China, with CPI inflation in 2026 now projected at 1.2% instead of 0.6%. They expect PPI deflation to end and the GDP deflator to turn positive, while the PBoC keeps policy accommodative but refrains from cutting rates further.
Higher commodities lift China inflation outlook
"With our in-house Brent oil forecast revised to USD 85.5/bbl for 2026, 35% higher than our forecast at end-2025, the pass-through to China’s inflation, especially PPI, appears non-negligible."
"Even before the recent oil rally, signs of reflation had already emerged, supported by rising metal prices in upstream sectors and domestic capacity management."
"Cost‑push inflation could further squeeze industrial profits if firms are unable to fully pass higher costs on to consumers."
"That said, positive inflation could still help unwind entrenched deflation expectations and, when combined with more active fiscal spending to lift demand, could contribute to more sustainable reflation."
"We raise our average CPI inflation forecast for 2026 to 1.2% from 0.6% previously, driven mainly by higher commodity prices, a stabilisation in food prices, and a modest firming in services prices."
"We now expect PPI inflation to average 0.8% in 2026, ending four years of deflation; risks remain two‑sided given uncertainty around global demand and commodity prices. The GDP deflator will likely turn positive this year. We do not expect a shift in the accommodative monetary policy stance in response to moderate reflation. However, we think the bar for policy rate cuts has increased and therefore no longer expect a policy rate cut in 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight how Chinese policymakers are defending China’s large trade surplus while aiming to keep the CNY broadly stable. Authorities are expected to use the 7‑day reverse repo rate, Loan Prime Rates and RRR adjustments, plus open market and structural tools, to offset Middle East-driven cost pressures and maintain a managed, flexible USD/CNY regime.
PBoC tools to steady Chinese Yuan
"Speaking at the China Development Forum, Premier Li Qiang committed to addressing trade frictions during the fragile US-China tariff truce, stating, "We are ready to work with all parties to promote the sound and balanced development of trade.""
"Conversely, People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng defended the surplus as a net positive that underpins global financial stability through outward investment. Pan attributed current imbalances largely to non-economic distortions, such as the front-loading of shipment."
"This careful messaging underscores China's structural reliance on goods exports to offset sluggish domestic consumption."
"Governor Pan emphasized the central bank's "commitment to ensuring ample liquidity and balancing internal and external equilibria"."
"We expect policymakers to actively deploy their comprehensive monetary policy toolkit, focusing on the 7-day reverse repo rate, which guides the broader Loan Prime Rates (LPR), alongside reserve requirement ratio (RRR) adjustments."
"PBoC may also utilize open market operations, and structural policy tools to complement a fiscal push that marks the fastest start to state spending since 2022."
"Looking ahead, we expect the PBoC to tolerate flexible, market-driven fluctuations while actively deploying macro-prudential tools to curb "herd effects" and prevent one-sided bets against the CNY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, March 24:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100 mark on Monday and is now trading at 99.10, as improved risk appetite offsets support from steady yields and cautious expectations for the Federal Reserve. Markets kicked off the week with a positive tone after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a postponement of planned strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and pointed to “major points of agreement” in ongoing talks.
Trump's post triggered a sharp decline in Oil prices, even as Iranian officials downplayed the prospect of negotiations, claiming no talks have been held with the United States.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.34% | -0.65% | -0.60% | -0.01% | 0.20% | -0.46% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.34% | -0.31% | -0.26% | 0.31% | 0.67% | -0.14% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.65% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.64% | 0.98% | 0.17% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.60% | 0.26% | -0.04% | 0.61% | 0.81% | 0.07% | 0.41% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.31% | -0.64% | -0.61% | 0.19% | -0.58% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.67% | -0.98% | -0.81% | -0.19% | -0.79% | -0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.14% | -0.17% | -0.07% | 0.58% | 0.79% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | -0.14% | -0.44% | -0.41% | 0.23% | 0.39% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1630 price region, rising by over 0.50% to two-week highs as the Euro (EUR) is supported by a steady outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB).
GBP/USD surged sharply to 1.3479 in the European session, and declined slightly to 1.3430, still with gains of 0.80% amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
USD/JPY plummeted to the 158.40 level as a weaker US Dollar loses ground to a firmer Japanese Yen (JPY), which is being supported by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which continues to draw attention after Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that further rate hikes remain possible if inflation evolves as projected .
AUD/USD is trading in a tight range near 0.7010 after reaching an almost two-month low in the Asian session at 0.6910. The Australian flash March PMIs will be released at the start of the Asian session on Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell from $100 to $87.70 per barrel as Trump requested resolution talks, giving investors room to breathe and play their cards in other positions.
Gold recovers and posts mild losses, trading near $4,450 after hitting a three-month low of $4,098 earlier in the day. The yellow metal staged a solid comeback following Trump's announcement on Iran strikes.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, March 24:
- Eurozone HCOB PMIs (Mar) Prel.
- United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs (Mar) Prel.
- United States ADP Employment Change.
- United States Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
- United States S&P Global PMIs (Mar) Prel.
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations (Mar).
- Germany IFO Business Climate (Mar).
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr).
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- United States Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Mar).
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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