Forex News
- Gold holds above the $5,200 level amid heightened geopolitical risks and failed US–Iran talks.
- Hot US inflation readings, including PPI and core measures, keep rate-cut expectations modest, supporting bullion.
- Uncertainty over US tariff policy and Middle East tensions fuel safe-haven demand, prolonging a multi-month uptrend.
A red-hot inflation report in the United States and rising tensions between the latter and Iran pushed Gold price higher on Friday, past the $5,260 figure, posting solid gains of over 1.20%. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,261, hitting a one-month high and extending its gains for the seventh consecutive month.
XAU/USD climbs to fresh highs as unresolved US–Iran talks and inflation fears underpin safe-haven buying
Talks between Washington and Tehran ended on Thursday, but failed to show meaningful progress, which could prevent a US strike on Iran. Recently, US President Donald Trump said that he was not happy with the way Iran negotiated, sounding vague about whether there may or may not be a regime change in the country, and added that Tehran forgot to say the golden words, “no nuclear weapon.”
The US Embassy in Jerusalem permitted non-emergency staff and families to leave the country, citing safety risks, according to NBC News. Meanwhile, CNN reported that no intel shows Iran is planning an intercontinental ballistic missile able to hit the US.
Data-wise, the US Producer Price Index in January rose by 2.9% YoY, beneath the previous month’s 3% but exceeded forecasts of 2.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased on an annual basis by 3.6%, up from the previous month’s print and estimates of 3.3% and 3%, respectively.
Although market participants are pricing in nearly 58 basis points of easing, the first rate cut is expected to be delayed until the Fed’s July 29 meeting, with traders implying 29 basis points of easing.
What is on the calendar for the first week of March?
Ahead next week, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, the ADP Employment Change for February, Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and February’s Nonfarm Payrolls data.
XAU/USD Technical outlook: Gold surges as bulls eye $5,300
Despite continuing its advance, Gold price seems poised to consolidate and forget about parabolic upward moves. As XAU/USD clears $5,200, the next area of consolidation lies within the latter and $5,300, with expectations of higher prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum is building, which opens the door to higher prices.
The first resistance is seen at $5,300. A decisive break puts the move towards $5,400 in play, followed by the January 30 high at $5,450. On further strength, $5,500 is up next ahead of the record high near $5,600.
Conversely, if Gold drops, the first support would be the February 24 daily low of $5,093. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $5,019 before testing $5,000.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar (USD) lost ground this week amid geopolitical uncertainty and the United States (US) trade policy developments after the Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration's tariffs illegal and he responded with a fresh round of levies. On another note, the release of a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data couldn’t revive the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.60 price region, losing around 0.20% in the day and closing the week with a mild decline as traders are cautious amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | 0.09% | -0.09% | -0.35% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.77% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.06% | -0.19% | 0.14% | 0.01% | -0.61% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.25% | -0.19% | -0.40% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.85% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.19% | -0.23% | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.66% | |
| CAD | 0.35% | 0.19% | 0.40% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.19% | -0.42% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.08% | -0.32% | -0.12% | -0.74% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | -0.01% | 0.23% | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.12% | -0.62% | |
| CHF | 0.77% | 0.61% | 0.85% | 0.66% | 0.42% | 0.74% | 0.62% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1810 price zone, regaining some ground during the American session as the flash German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for February was released lower than expected at 2% YoY from the 2.1% expected, and 0.4% from the 0.5% MoM. Additionally, investors assessed European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament. She insisted that inflation is on track to return to 2% over time, with food price pressures gradually easing into 2026. She also said she won’t be leaving her position before her term ends, erasing speculation of another ECB Chair for now.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3470 level, recovering some ground after almost retouching the one-month low it hit earlier this month. On another note, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that there is scope for rate cuts, amid expectations that inflation will return to the 2% target.
USD/JPY is trading near the 156.00 price zone, in a neutral zone after recovering almost all its intraday losses. Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% YoY in February, with the ex Fresh Food print slipping below the Bank of Japan (BoJ) 2% target for the first time since 2024.
AUD/USD is trading close to the 0.7120 level, trading on a green note after reversing its losses. Market focus now shifts to Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge due on Monday.
USD/CAD is trading close to the 1.3630 price zone, reaching an almost two-week low as investors digested US and Canada data. The Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter, following a revised 2.4% growth in the previous quarter, according to Statistics Canada.
Gold is trading near $5,260, reaching a one-month high amid geopolitical uncertainty. The yellow metal is trying to regain the all--time high of $5,598 it reached earlier this year.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Sunday, March 1:
- ECB's Nagel.
Monday, March 2:
- ECB's Elderson.
- ECB's Nagel.
- ECB's President Lagarde.
- BoE's Ramsden.
- RBA Governor Bullock.
Tuesday, March 3:
- BoJ Governor Ueda
- Fed's Williams.
- ECB's Sleijpen.
- ECB's Kocher.
- Fed's Kashkari.
Wednesday, March 4:
- ECB's Cipollone.
- BoC's Governor Macklem.
- ECB's De Guindos.
Thursday, March 5:
- ECB's De Guindos.
- ECB's Kocher.
- ECB's President Lagarde.
Friday, March 6:
- ECB's Cipollone.
- Fed's Daly.
- Fed's Hammack.
- Fed's Paulson.
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies
Monday, March 2:
- Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge.
- Chinese February RatingDog Manufacturing PMI.
- German January Retail Sales.
- Swiss January Real Retail Sales.
- Spain February HCOB Manufacturing PMI.
- Italy February HCOB Manufacturing PMI.
- Germany February HCOB Manufacturing PMI.
- Canadian February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
- US February ISM Manufacturing Employment Index.
- US February ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index.
- US February ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- US February ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid.
- New Zealand January Building Permits s.a.
- Japanese January Unemployment Rate.
Tuesday, March 3:
- Australian January Building Permits.
- Eurozone HICP.
- Italian February flash CPI.
- Australian AiG Industry Index.
- Australian February S&P Global Composite PMI.
- Australian February Global Services PMI.
Wednesday, March 4:
- Australian Q4 GDP.
- Chinese February NBS Manufacturing PMIs.
- Chinese February RatingDog Services PMI.
- Swiss February CPI.
- Spain Feb HCOB PMI.
- Germany Feb HCOB PMI.
- Eurozone Feb HCOB PMIs.
- Eurozone Jan PPIs.
- Italian Q4 GDP.
- US ADP Employment Change.
- US S&P Feb Global Composite PMI
- US Feb ISM Services Employment Index.
- US Feb ISM Services New Orders Index.
- US Feb ISM Services PMI.
- US Feb ISM Services Prices Paid.
- US Fed's Beige Book.
Thursday, March 5:
- Australian January Trade Balance.
- Eurozone January Retail Sales
- US February Challenger Job Cuts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US flash Nonfarm Productivity
- US flash Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
Friday, March 6:
- Germany January Factory Orders n.s.a.
- Eurozone Employment Change (Q4).
- Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4).
- US February Average Hourly Earnings.
- US February Labor Force Participation Rate.
- US February Nonfarm Payrolls.
- US January Retail Sales.
- US February U6 Underemployment Rate.
- US February Unemployment Rate
- Canadian February Ivey PMIs.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
DBS Group Research expects Taiwan’s upcoming January export orders and industrial production to show strong double-digit growth, helped by last year’s low base and robust global AI-driven demand, alongside semiconductor and ICT inventory restocking. February CPI is forecast above 1.5% on holiday-related food and services prices. The statistics agency’s upgraded 2026 GDP and CPI forecasts broadly match DBS projections.
AI demand and restocking drive momentum
"A set of economic data will be released this week following the Chinese New Year holiday."
"January export orders and industrial production are likely to post strong double-digit growth, driven partly by a low base effect from last year’s CNY holiday and partly by sustained expansion in global AI demand, as well as inventory restocking in the semiconductor and broader ICT sectors."
"February CPI inflation is expected to rise to above 1.5%, up from 0.7% in January, reflecting higher food and services prices during the CNY holiday period.The national statistics agency has recently revised up its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.7% and slightly adjusted its 2026 CPI inflation forecast to 1.7%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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