Forex News
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a negative stance on USD/CNH, expecting the Dollar to edge lower within a defined range. Intraday, they see only mild downside momentum, limiting losses. Over 1–3 weeks and months, they project a gradual decline toward 6.6640 while the pair stays below the cloud near 6.7815.
Negative Dollar view toward 6.6640
"24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated last Friday that USD “could trade between 6.6700 and 6.6760.” However, USD edged down to a low of 6.6688. Downward momentum has increased slightly. Today, USD could continue to edge lower, but based on the mild momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach 6.6640 today. Resistance is at 6.6740."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative USD view since the middle of the month. In our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (21 Oct, spot at 6.6750), we highlighted that USD “could decline gradually toward 6.6640.” There is no change in our view. On the upside, a breach of 6.6780 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 6.6850) would indicate USD is not declining further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes Malaysian Ringgit trading sideways but relatively resilient despite regional FX volatility, supported by strong September exports, a wider trade surplus and benign inflation. The bank retains a constructive bias on MYR, seeing little urgency for BNM policy changes and expecting USD/MYR to remain in a tight near-term range driven mainly by broader USD moves.
MYR supported by solid fundamentals
"MYR traded sideways last week, holding relatively steady despite renewed volatility in regional FX. Domestic data remained supportive, with September exports surging 54.5% YoY and the trade surplus widening to MYR33.7bn."
"Headline inflation also eased to 1.8% YoY, while core inflation remained stable at 1.7%. The combination of resilient external demand and manageable inflation continues to underpin Malaysia’s relatively favourable macro backdrop."
"Focus will also turn to BNM’s 5 November meeting. For now, there may be little urgency for a policy adjustment, with the relatively firm domestic backdrop allowing BNM to remain patient."
"We retain a constructive bias on MYR, although near-term direction may remain largely driven by broader USD movements and risk sentiment. The strong trade surplus is encouraging, but the extent to which export earnings translate into actual MYR conversion remains an important consideration."
"Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose. 2-way trades likely to persist. We see range of 4.08 – 4.09 within wider perimeters of 4.0760 – 4.0950."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) has started the week in an auspicious fashion, further extending its recovery to the area of multi-day highs. The Greenback’s extra strength has followed a mixed tone in US Treasury yields amid a generalised cautious stance among market participants.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has briefly surpassed the 102.00 barrier, building on Friday’s advance ahead of key events and data later in the week. The ADP Employment Change Weekly figures are due in the first turn, followed by the final Building Permits data, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, the FHFA’s House Price Index, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories.
EUR/USD has receded to multi-day troughs, returning to the sub-1.1200 region in response to the extra improvement in the US Dollar’s sentiment. The ECB’s Loan to Companies/Households data will be released prior to the speech by the ECB's Lagarde.
GBP/USD has followed the gloomy mood in the risk-associated universe, tumbling to four-day lows in the 1.3330-1.3320 band. Another gauge of UK inflation is due, this time from the BRC Shop Price Inflation.
The mixed tone in the US money market and extra gains in the US Dollar have sparked a decent recovery in USD/JPY, sending spot to two-day peaks around 157.60. Next on tap on the Japanese calendar will be the usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures along with the Consumer Confidence reading.
AUD/USD has further extended its bumpy trade, although the 0.7000 contention zone seems to have contained the bearish impulse fairly well for now. The key Inflation Rate will gather all the attention in Oz on October 28.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures (December contract) have come under extra pressure, adding to Friday’s retracement and briefly approaching the psychological $100.00 mark per barrel before staging some recovery. The commodity’s decline has followed renewed hopes of a potential US-Iran agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.
Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to regain some composure, setting aside two daily pullbacks in a row and regaining the area beyond the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s bounce has come despite a stronger US Dollar and mixed US Treasury yields, although declining crude oil prices appear to have underpinned the move.
- USD/JPY trades with a positive bias as the Japanese Yen struggles across the board.
- The Fed and BoJ are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this week's meetings.
- Markets anticipate further tightening in December, keeping policymakers' guidance in focus.
USD/JPY trades with a positive bias on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major peers, while a firmer US Dollar (USD) adds support to the pair. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 157.42 after slipping to 156.08 on Friday, its lowest level since September 18.
The US Dollar finds some footing after ending last week in negative territory, as concerns over AI-related investments drove demand for government bonds and pushed US Treasury yields lower. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.91 after falling to 101.45 last week, its lowest level since October 1.
Yields are mixed on Monday, with shorter-dated yields edging higher while longer-dated yields remain little changed near recent lows. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stands around 4.98%.
All eyes on Fed and BoJ monetary policy announcement
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. Both central banks are widely expected to hold rates steady after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September and the BoJ delivered a cumulative 50 bps of tightening earlier this year, as the Middle East energy shock added to inflationary pressures.
However, traders anticipate further hikes from both in December. With pauses largely expected, attention will centre on the policy statements and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues about the timing and pace of further tightening.
Recent inflation data from both the United States and Japan support expectations of further tightening. US headline CPI accelerated to 3.7% YoY in September from 3.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.3% YoY, up from 5.6% in August. In Japan, inflation excluding fresh food rose to 2.1% from 1.7%, moving above the BoJ’s 2% target, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy increased to 2.4% from 1.9%.
BoJ pause keeps focus on December as firmer inflation supports Yen
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the BoJ is “widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25% and assess September’s 25bps hike before tightening again.” They recall that in September, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda “warned that rapid rate hikes could unsettle asset prices,” while also cautioning that “it could take some time to confirm that 2% inflation is entrenched.”
Even so, BBH argues that “firmer underlying inflation leaves scope for a more hawkish Outlook Report, lifting BoJ rate expectations in favor of JPY.” Reflecting this shift, they highlight that “the swaps curve price in 75% odds of a 25bps BoJ rate hike to 1.50% at the December 18 meeting and nearly 75bps of tightening in the next twelve months.”
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.23% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.21% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.38% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.22% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.21% | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.16% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- XAG/USD rebounds above $54 after buyers defend $53.03 support.
- RSI recovers from oversold territory, signaling fading bearish momentum.
- Break below $53 exposes $50 and November support at $48.64.
Silver (XAG/USD) price drifts lower by 0.42% on Monday after retesting last Friday’s low near $53.00, which buyers defended, sending XAG/USD back above $54.00 but below its opening price.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The market structure of lower highs and lower lows continued to be respected. This suggests Silver’s downtrend remains intact. Although momentum has stabilized, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bottoming in oversold territory, further downside is seen unless XAG/USD rises back above the October 20 daily high of $58.61 and breaks to new highs.
For a bullish reversal, XAG/USD buyers need to reclaim the October 22 high of $58.02. Above is the October 20 high ahead of the $60.00 mark. Once those key levels are cleared, the next stop is the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of $62.09 and $62.87, respectively.
On the downside, Silver’s first support is $53.00. Below is the psychological $50.00 mark, followed by the November 21, 2025, swing low of $48.64.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Standard Chartered’s Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan highlight China’s strengthening external position, raising the 2026 and 2027 current account surplus forecasts on larger goods surpluses and smaller services deficits. They argue this strong current account will support further capital account opening, gradual CNY appreciation and expanded authorised channels as China advances its Renminbi internationalisation strategy under managed convertibility.
Strong surplus supports gradual liberalisation
"We raise our 2026 current account (C/A) surplus forecast to 4.0% of GDP from 2.5% previously, due mainly to a larger-than-expected goods trade surplus and a smaller-than-expected services trade deficit in H1-2026."
"We expect the structural drivers of China’s external-sector strength to remain intact going forward; we therefore raise our 2027 C/A surplus forecast to 3.6% of GDP from 2.0% previously."
"China is likely to continue to gradually open up its capital account to increase the Renminbi’s usability and acceptance internationally."
"We expect the growing C/A surplus to be digested by gradual CNY appreciation and a relaxation of capital controls."
"Full convertibility does not seem to be the authorities’ goal for the CNY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold gains 0.6% to $4,020 after rebounding from $3,978.
- Lower Oil prices and Treasury yields provide relief for Bullion.
- December Fed hike odds reach 83% ahead of Warsh's remarks.
Gold price recovers, rises 0.6% after finishing last week below the $4,000 figure as speculation of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed energy prices lower ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The XAU/USD trades at $4,020 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,978.
XAU/USD rebounds as easing Treasury yields and Middle East diplomacy support Bullion
Geopolitics continued to drive price action, particularly Oil prices, which have shown a mild positive correlation with the Greenback. Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – the Mecca Pact members – agreed to continue talks. Meanwhile, speculation of a US-Israel coordinated attack on Tehran looms as Iranian officials excluded nuclear talks from the Mecca Pact reunion.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, edges 0.5% lower to $102.90, which opened the door for Bullion’s recovery as US Treasury yields edge lower.
The US 10-year T-note yield, which correlates inversely with Gold prices, falls by 2 basis points to 4.978%, as investors price out a Fed rate hike this Wednesday.
At the time of writing, money markets had priced in an 83% chance that the Fedwill raise rates at the December meeting. Nevertheless, investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, in which he could signal the central bank’s next move, even though he doesn’t provide guidance.
Traders should be aware that although Gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn’t fare well in high-interest-rate environments. If Warsh’s words are hawkish, XAU/USD might press lower, and a potential move below $4,000 is on the cards.
Besides this, traders eye the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — for fresh clues about the interest-rate outlook. Additionally, investors are bracing for the November 3 US midterm elections.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold buyers emerge below $4,000; up next is $4,050
After diving to a two-month low of $3,975, Gold is making a U-turn and is about to form a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle pattern, meaning that further upside is seen. Although the move is backed by momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending higher, the 14-day RSI remains bearish and could cap the move.
The first resistance for XAU/USD is $4,100. A breach of the latter exposes the $4,150 psychological level ahead of the $4,200 mark. If cleared, the next stop is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,221, and the 50-day SMA at $4,294.
For a bearish continuation, the first support for XAU/USD is $4,000, followed by October’s 23-day low of $3,975, with the next key support levels seen at the July 17 low at $3,959 and the year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,941.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD falls 0.25% on Monday, despite expectations of further monetary tightening in New Zealand.
- Markets anticipate a third consecutive interest rate hike, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.0%.
- The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision and key US economic data.
NZD/USD declines by 0.25% on Monday, trading around 0.5680 at the time of writing, despite growing expectations of an interest rate hike in New Zealand. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles to benefit from the prospect of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as investors await several major monetary policy decisions and economic releases this week.
Expectations surrounding the RBNZ's upcoming policy decision have recently shifted toward another interest rate increase. According to TD Securities, the firm has shifted its near-term view on the RBNZ, noting that “we had forecast the RBNZ to pause at its October meeting. We now forecast the Bank to hike the Official Cash Rate 25bps at this week's meeting to 3%.” Despite the change in timing, strategists at the bank emphasize that “nonetheless, we stick to our call for 25bps hikes in December and February. Accordingly, this pushes our terminal rate from 3.25% to 3.50%.”
The latest data from New Zealand showed that inflation eased slightly more than expected in the third quarter. However, economists anticipate a renewed acceleration in consumer prices in the fourth quarter, potentially pushing inflation above 4%, beyond the RBNZ's target range of 1% to 3%.
This outlook could encourage the central bank to continue tightening monetary policy to contain price pressures, potentially providing support for the New Zealand Dollar.
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 27-28 policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hold in October, while the likelihood of another interest rate hike in December stands at 79%.
This potential divergence between the monetary policies of the two central banks could support NZD/USD, particularly if the RBNZ confirms its intention to continue raising interest rates.
Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming US economic releases, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. These indicators could influence expectations regarding the future path of US interest rates and, consequently, the direction of the US Dollar.
NZD/USD technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5687. The pair is sandwiched between its major moving averages, holding above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5665 but trading just beneath the 100-period SMA at 0.5689, which hints at a capped intraday tone within an overall supported structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.2 sits just below the neutral 50 line, suggesting consolidative momentum after the recent pullback from the 0.5700 area.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at 0.5689, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.5710. On the downside, initial support appears at the horizontal level at 0.5668, ahead of the 200-period SMA at 0.5665, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader intraday range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness persists despite strong exports, as foreign equity outflows and unsettled global tech sentiment dominate USD/TWD. Wong stays cautious near term, highlighting the need for improved equity flows for a more durable TWD recovery and flagging technical overbought conditions with nearby support and resistance levels guiding price action.
TWD pressured by equity outflows
"TWD remained under pressure last week as foreign equity selling continued (Week-to-date USD7.6bn) amid unsettled global technology sentiment."
"The CBC attributed the currency’s weakness to substantial foreign fund outflows and dividendrelated remittances, while reiterating its willingness to maintain orderly FX conditions. This contrasted with strong September export orders, which surged 62.4% YoY, highlighting the disconnect between Taiwan’s resilient external sector and portfolio flows."
"We remain cautious on TWD near term. While CBC smoothing may help contain excessive volatility, sustained recovery would likely require foreign equity selling to moderate."
"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. We continue to keep a lookout for signs of technical turnaround."
"Support at 32.35 (23.6% fibo), 32.13 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 32.70 (recent high)"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that Brazil’s election outcome surprised markets, with Lula winning the run‑off and BRL dropping about 10% toward 5.50 per Dollar. He stresses Lula’s limited fiscal room given high debt and deficit, and argues the key for the Brazilian Real will be how quickly Lula can convince investors that his reform and consolidation pledges are credible.
Fiscal credibility key for Real
"Brazil’s election result caught markets on the wrong foot. While the first round had raised hopes of a change in power, Ignacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) ultimately prevailed in yesterday’s run-off and will return to the presidency."
"The real reacted sharply. Having strengthened after the first round, BRL dropped around 10% towards 5.50 against the dollar in thin Asian trading."
"As my colleague Norman pointed out last week, attention will now quickly shift to fiscal policy. With public debt at 83% of GDP and a budget deficit of around 10%, Lula has little room to disappoint."
"He has promised fiscal consolidation in recent weeks, partly in response to market pressure. Now he needs to deliver. That will not be easy, particularly as he faces a more conservative Congress following the parliamentary elections in early October."
"The initial sell-off may well have been exaggerated, but that does not mean it will reverse immediately. Markets had been positioned for a Bolsonaro victory and the associated reform agenda, and such positioning can unwind quickly. "
"For the real, the crucial question is therefore how quickly Lula can convince investors that his reform pledges are credible."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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