Forex News

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reviews Colombian presidential election dynamics ahead of the May 31, 2026 vote, noting that polls suggest a runoff where a unified right has an advantage over the Historic Pact candidate. The note highlights Paloma Valencia’s growing support among undecided voters, lingering fragmentation risks, and elevated institutional and fiscal stress that keep markets cautious on Colombian assets.

Unified right seen with runoff edge

"Polls show runoff dynamics favour a unified right: Valencia or De la Espriella outperform Cepeda in second-round matchups, with fragmentation the key risk."

"Valencia gaining traction: Undecided voters are consolidating around her, while Cepeda appears near a ceiling."

"Odds now slightly favour Valencia, but poll credibility is clouded by a CNE [Consejo Nacional Electoral - National Electoral Council] probe."

"Institutional and fiscal stress elevated: Central bank tensions and limited fiscal space heighten market sensitivity."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• AUD/USD rebounds after a gap-down open as hopes for a US-Iran deal support sentiment.
• US Dollar eases as DXY retreats from near 99.00 after early-week strength.
• RBA’s hawkish stance and upcoming employment data keep interest rate expectations in focus.

AUD/USD stages a sharp reversal on Monday after opening the week with a gap lower, as investors reassess evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the prospects for a US-Iran deal. The rebound comes as hopes of a deal still being reached improve market mood, lifting the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD) while putting pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7089, rebounding from an intraday low near 0.6990. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.54, easing from intraday highs near the 99.00 level.

US President Donald Trump said during a press conference at the Oval Office on Monday that the United States has been contacted by “the right people” in Iran, signaling potential room for renewed negotiations. “We’ve been called by the other side,” he told reporters. “They’d like to make a deal very badly.”

These remarks come after Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports following a weekend of US-Iran talks that ended without a breakthrough.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly any signs of de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as elevated Oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and complicate the monetary policy outlook for major central banks.

In the US, the impact of rising Oil prices was clearly evident in the March inflation data, with headline CPI increasing by 0.9% MoM from 0.3% in February, while the annual rate rose to 3.3% YoY from 2.4%. The stronger inflation print has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in the coming months.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a hawkish stance amid persistent inflation pressures, with inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2%-3% target range. The RBA has already raised interest rates twice this year, and Australia’s employment data due on Thursday could influence interest rate expectations going forward.

Traders will also closely monitor China’s trade balance data on Tuesday, given Australia’s strong economic ties with China, which make the Aussie particularly sensitive to developments in the world’s second-largest economy.

Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. Retail and grocery spending continued to recover, and services such as beauty, travel and leisure also expanded. Higher energy prices lifted gas-station outlays but did not materially crowd out other categories.

Danish consumers lift real spending

"Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy increased by 1.2% in March compared to February, driven by higher consumption across both goods and services. Real spending excluding energy in March climbed 3.8% higher than in March 2025. The timing of Easter is likely an explanation for the high growth y/y."

"Real retail spending rose 1.2% m/m in March. Real grocery spending rose 0.6% m/m, continuing the upward trend seen since October 2025. This marks a notable shift following a prolonged period from mid-2024 when consumers consistently reduced their real grocery spending and is likely a product of food prices no longer rising rapidly."

"Spending at gas stations rose 12.4% m/m in nominal terms in March, reflecting higher gasoline and diesel prices. However, nominal spending is only back at 2024 levels. This relatively modest effect, all things considered, also reflects a significant shift in the Danish car stock, where households are rapidly shifting from fossil fuel cars to electrical cars in recent years."

"Real spending rose across the service sector in March. Beauty and barber shops, along with travel-related services, recorded a significant increase, while other services, such as restaurants, bars, tourist attractions, and cinemas, saw more moderate growth."

"Despite rising energy prices in March, we have not seen this cannibalise other types of spending. The timing of Easter might muddle the picture slightly, but overall spending improved across the board in March."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

US President Donald Trump spoke at a press conference at the Oval Office and praised Vice-President JD Vance's work on Iran, saying that he “has done a very good job on Iran.”

Amongst that, he said that “we’ve been called this morning by the right people on Iran,” and that they “want a deal.” He reiterated that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has started.

Key highlights:

VICE PRESIDENT VANCE HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB ON IRAN

WE'VE BEEN CALLED BY THE OTHER SIDE AND THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL VERY BADLY

IRAN DID NOT AGREE TO NOT HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON

WE'LL GET NUCLEAR MATERIAL BACK

BLOCKADE HAS STARTED

WE'VE BEEN CALLED THIS MORNING BY THE RIGHT PEOPLE ON IRAN

CHINA'S XI WANTS TO SEE THIS ENDED

TRUMP: WE MAY STOP BY CUBA AFTER WE'RE FINISHED WITH IRAN

Market’s reaction

• Gold prices ticked up from around $4,730 to $4,741 before retreating to $4,734.
• The Dow Jones Industrial paired some of its earlier losses and is flat at 47,926.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned negative, losing 0.09% in the day at 98.61.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dips on Monday, weighed down by Goldman Sachs after disappointing fixed income results, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite push into positive territory.
• Oil futures for May surged back above $100 per barrel after President Trump ordered a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend peace talks with Iran.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped more than 500 points overnight before a sharp recovery through the session, with markets showing increasing resilience to geopolitical headlines.
• Software stocks led the rally, with Oracle jumping 8% and Palantir gaining more than 3%, while Goldman Sachs fell 2.5% despite beating earnings estimates after a large miss in its fixed income unit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) edges lower on Monday, slipping around 50 points to trade near 47,900 after recovering from a much steeper drop at the open. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to trade above 6,800, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to push above 23,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had plunged more than 500 points in the overnight session after US President Donald Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but equities staged a notable intraday recovery as investors appeared to bet on an eventual resolution to the US-Iran standoff.

Hormuz blockade sends Oil back above $100

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil futures surged more than 5% to top $101 per barrel after Trump declared that the US Navy would blockade all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that the blockade would not impede vessels transiting the strait to non-Iranian ports. The announcement came after weekend negotiations in Islamabad collapsed, with Vice President JD Vance departing without a deal, citing Iran's unwillingness to halt its nuclear weapons program. The two sides appear far apart, with Iran also demanding control of the strait, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets. Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey will continue talks with both nations in the coming days, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is weighing a resumption of military strikes. Brent Crude jumped as much as 9% to trade near $102. The move reverses much of the relief rally that followed the April 7 ceasefire agreement, which had briefly pushed Oil prices back below $100. "Investors are now back to the drawing board trying to reassess the fair value of stocks now that it's clear that there is no end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East," said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.

Goldman Sachs weighs on the Dow

Goldman Sachs (GS) was the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, falling 2.5% despite reporting first-quarter results that topped estimates on both the top and bottom line. Earnings per share came in at $17.55 versus the $16.49 consensus estimate, while revenue hit $17.23 billion against expectations of $16.97 billion. The standout was equities trading, which posted a record quarter at $5.33 billion in revenue, up 27% YoY. However, the bank's fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) division was a sore spot, with revenue dropping 10% YoY to $4.01 billion, missing StreetAccount estimates by roughly $900 million. The miss was attributed to weakness in interest rate products, mortgages, and credit. Bank of America called the overall results "solid" but "clouded by the FICC miss," while Wolfe Research described the quarter as "disappointing" despite lofty expectations, noting that higher commodities and foreign exchange trading were more than offset by weakness in rates, mortgages, and credit. Wells Fargo added that the FICC shortfall was "a little surprising relative to peer guidance and balance sheet growth." The result kicked off what is expected to be a busy week for bank earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America all set to report.

Software stocks lead the recovery

While financials dragged, technology and enterprise software names pushed the Nasdaq Composite higher. Oracle (ORCL) surged 8% to lead S&P 500 gainers after announcing new AI-powered utilities industry suite offerings. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) gained more than 3%, while ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY) both rose more than 5%. Within the Dow, Salesforce (CRM) rose more than 3% on optimism around its artificial intelligence integration pipeline, Microsoft (MSFT) added around 1.6%, and IBM (IBM) gained roughly 1%. The sector rotation out of financials and into software was a defining feature of the session, helping the Nasdaq outperform despite the heavy geopolitical overhang. Semiconductor stocks broadly held gains from last week's rally, which had been fueled by strong results from TSMC and renewed AI capex commitments from major tech firms.

Existing home sales hit nine-month low

Existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in March, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Monday. The figure marked a 3.6% monthly decline and missed the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 4.05 million, coming in at the lowest level since June 2025. Mortgage rates climbed sharply through March, peaking at 6.64% for a 30-year loan before easing by roughly a quarter percentage point during the US-Iran ceasefire. The median home sales price rose 1.4% YoY to near $409K. The housing data adds to a growing pile of evidence that elevated borrowing costs are weighing on rate-sensitive parts of the economy, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it navigates between persistent inflation risks and softening demand.

Bond yields rise as inflation fears return

Treasury yields climbed on Monday as the resurgence in Oil prices reignited inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.34%, while the 30-year yield added 2 basis points to reach 4.93%. The moves come on the back of Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which had already revived higher inflation expectations. With Oil back above $100, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Fed may need to delay rate cuts further. The bond selloff adds another layer of pressure for equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. Last week had been the strongest for all three major indexes since November, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.6%, the Nasdaq jumping 4.7%, and the Dow advancing 3%, so Monday's relatively contained pullback was viewed as a healthy pause given the escalation in geopolitical risk.

Looking ahead

The key data release this week is the March Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation update due on Tuesday, with consensus expecting a jump to 4.6% YoY from 3.4% previously, and 1.2% MoM versus 0.7% prior. Core PPI excluding food and energy is also expected to accelerate to 4.2% YoY from 3.9%. A hot PPI print, particularly on the heels of Friday's CPI data and the renewed surge in Oil prices, could further dampen rate cut expectations and weigh on risk sentiment. Thursday brings weekly Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 215K), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and March Industrial Production data. The week also features a heavy lineup of Fed speakers, including Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin, Collins, and Williams, along with the release of the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.

Dow Jones 5-minute chart

• Silver declines on Monday and trades around $74.10 after hitting an intraday low of $72.61.
• The collapse of US-Iran negotiations revives geopolitical tensions and supports the US Dollar.
• Rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns and strengthen expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $74.10 on Monday at the time of writing, down 2.23% on the day after briefly dropping to an intraday low near $72.61. The white metal is attempting to stabilize its losses but remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Market sentiment deteriorated after peace negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran failed over the weekend. Talks aimed at establishing a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East did not succeed, as Tehran refused to abandon its nuclear ambitions. In response, US President Donald Trump announced military measures aimed at blocking maritime traffic linked to Iranian ports, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy flows.

This escalation has revived concerns about global energy supply and triggered a sharp rebound in Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is rising strongly and trades around $97 per barrel, fueling renewed inflation fears across financial markets.

Higher energy prices are pushing investors to reassess expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets are now considering the possibility that interest rates could remain higher for longer, or even rise further if geopolitical tensions continue to drive inflationary pressures.

In this environment, non-yielding assets such as Silver tend to lose relative appeal. A higher interest-rate backdrop increases the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, limiting demand despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

On the macroeconomic front, the calendar remains relatively light at the start of the week. Investors’ attention will turn to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, which could provide further clues about the evolution of inflationary pressures and the next steps in the Fed’s monetary policy.

• Gold recovers from intraday lows but remains capped as escalating US-Iran tensions keep gains in check.
• US-Iran talks end without a deal, US orders a blockade targeting Iranian ports.
• Technically, XAU/USD shows a neutral bias with a slight downside tilt below the 50-day SMA.

Gold (XAU/USD) regains ground on Monday after a gap-down open, though upside remains limited as markets stay on edge amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,717, recovering from an intraday low near $4,632.

Risk-off sentiment dominates the market mood as last week’s optimism following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire fades after US-Iran talks over the weekend in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough.

In response, US President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any Iranian ships approaching it would be “immediately eliminated.” The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the blockade will apply to all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, with operations beginning Monday at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT).

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be seen as a ceasefire breach and could face a strong response.

Markets remain wary of further escalation and prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies, with Crude prices climbing back after last week’s correction. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $96, up roughly 6.5% at the time of writing.

Elevated Oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, or even raise them further if the conflict persists, keeping the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields broadly supported. Recent US inflation data for March reflected rising energy costs, with headline CPI increasing by 0.9% MoM from 0.3% in February, while the annual rate rose to 3.3% YoY from 2.4%.

Despite being seen as an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset, Gold has struggled to attract meaningful buying interest since the war began, as the higher interest rate outlook increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

However, the broader outlook remains supported by steady central bank buying, fading confidence in fiat currencies, rising sovereign debt levels in major economies, and resilient investment demand.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is relatively light, with the main focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March due on Tuesday. In addition, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, which could provide further guidance on the interest rate outlook.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates between key SMAs

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows XAU/USD holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,687.17 and well above the 200-day SMA near $4,185.69, while remaining capped below the 50-day SMA at $4,899.38. This keeps the broader bias neutral with a slight downside tilt as price consolidates between these key levels.

Momentum indicators point to a lack of strong direction, with the Relative Strength Index (14) near 47 suggesting buyers lack conviction, while the Average Directional Index around 27 reflects only moderate trend strength.

On the upside, a sustained move above the 50-day SMA would signal improving bullish momentum, with the $5,000-$5,200 zone emerging as the next resistance area.

On the downside, a failure to hold above the 100-day SMA could expose the $4,600–$4,500 support zone, followed by the 200-day SMA.

Deutsche Bank economists say Germany’s recovery is being pushed back by higher energy costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. They cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% while keeping 2027 at 1.5%. Inflation is projected to average 2.7% this year. Recent data show weak industrial production but stronger exports and stable core inflation.

Energy shock weighs on German outlook

"The energy price shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the increased perception of uncertainty are likely to significantly delay the economic recovery."

"Against this backdrop, we have lowered our growth forecast for 2026 from 1.5% to 1.0%."

"The annual aggregate rate rose to 2.7% as a result of the energy price shock."

"New orders in the manufacturing sector stabilized in February with a lower-than-expected increase of 0.9% compared to the previous month, following a significant decline in January due to fewer large orders."

"A preliminary agreement on an income tax reform package could be reached before the key figures for the 2027 budget are presented on April 29."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• USD/CHF edges lower but downside remains limited amid US-Iran tensions and Oil-driven inflation risks.
• Technically, USD/CHF is testing the 100-day SMA after failing to hold above 0.8000.
• Momentum indicators weaken, with RSI below 50 and MACD turning negative.

USD/CHF edges lower on Monday but lacks follow-through selling as escalating US-Iran tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, driven by rising Oil prices, help limit downside in the US Dollar (USD). At the same time, the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles to attract strong demand as the Swiss National Bank’s readiness to act against excessive currency strength keeps investors cautious.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7876, down 0.13% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.78 after opening the week with a gap higher toward the 99.00 level.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump has ordered a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports after US-Iran talks over the weekend concluded without a breakthrough, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be seen as a ceasefire breach and could face a strong response.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is trading within an upward-sloping parallel channel on the daily chart, with price now hovering near the lower boundary, which closely aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7883. This increases the risk of a breakdown after buyers failed to sustain gains above the 0.8000 psychological level.

A decisive break below the channel support or the 100-day SMA could expose the 50-day SMA at 0.7827 as the next support, followed by the March 10 low near 0.7748.

On the upside, the 200-day SMA at 0.7944 acts as immediate resistance, ahead of the upper boundary of the channel near the 0.8000 psychological mark. A sustained move above 0.8000 is needed to confirm renewed bullish momentum.

Momentum indicators suggest fading upside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the 50 mark, indicating weakening bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning lower, with the histogram dipping into negative territory hinting that bearish momentum is beginning to build.

• GBP/USD capped as disappointing US-Iran talks keep markets cautious.
• BoE tightening bets helped Sterling offset modest US Dollar strength.
• Traders now await US PPI, Fed speeches and labor data.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm on Monday as talks between Iran and the US disappointed investors, triggering a reaction from the White House, while recent news suggests that Tehran could be considering abandoning uranium enrichment, a key condition set by the US to end the war. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3457.

Sterling stays firm as BoE bets offset stronger Dollar tone

The market sentiment improved slightly but remains mixed, as Iran is reportedly considering halting its nuclear program. Nevertheless, the US established a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which began at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday, aimed at blocking Iranian-flagged vessels and those from other countries leaving Iranian ports.

The Wall Street Journal confirmed that the US blockade began, citing a senior US official, as there are more than 15 US warships in place to support the operation.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies versus the Greenback, is up 0.10% at 98.79, a headwind for GBP/USD.

Data from the US showed that Existing Home Sales fell to a nine-month low in March, from 4.13 million to 3.98 million, down 3.6% from February's print, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In the meantime, energy prices edged higher after breaking news that neither Washington nor Tehran reached an agreement over the weekend.

In the UK, fears of an inflation spiral triggered by high petrol prices pushed traders to price in nearly 50 basis points of rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2026. This, despite comments by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who said that money markets are getting ahead of themselves by expecting a hawkish BoE.

Given the Fed's backdrop and expectations of keeping borrowing costs unchanged in 2026, while the BoE is expected to tighten, further upside for GBP/USD is seen. However, a risk-off mood could keep bulls on the sidelines, awaiting confirmation before opening fresh bets for higher prices.

On Tuesday, the UK's docket is absent, while in the US, traders will eye the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, along with speeches by Fed officials and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March, expected to rise by 4.6% YoY.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3459, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the dense cluster of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages around 1.3431. The pair has also pushed through the descending resistance trend line, now turned support near 1.3436, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index grinds higher, suggesting dip demand is emerging on shallow pullbacks.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the rising former support trend line projected near 1.3492, where sellers could attempt to cap the recovery. On the downside, immediate support is located at the prior descending trend barrier around 1.3436, followed by the major moving-average cluster near 1.3431, with a break under this zone needed to undermine the nascent bullish structure on the daily chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)