Forex News
- The Australian Dollar receives support from the cautious tone surrounding RBA’s policy outlook.
- RBA’s Bullock stated that elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity could drive inflation above current forecasts.
- President Trump issued a fresh round of tariff demand letters, reigniting concerns over a global trade war.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak for the third successive session on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair gained ground after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.85% earlier this week.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that inflation risks persist, driven by the elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity, which could push inflation above forecasts. Moreover, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser mentioned that the global economy is facing uncertainty. Hauser also stated that tariff effects on the global economy are profound and are likely to dampen growth.
However, the AUD could face challenges following the Reuters survey poll, forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in August. Australia’s four major banks, ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac, also support the rate cut.
Australian Dollar continues to advance as US Dollar weakens on tariff uncertainty
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends its losses for the second successive session and is trading at around 97.30 at the time of writing. Traders will likely observe the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims later on Thursday.
- US President Donald Trump unveiled a new wave of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, sparking concerns about a renewed global trade war. The flurry of letters and additional tariff threats marked the latest turn in a fast-moving trade agenda that has fueled market volatility.
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the June 17–18 meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that policymakers largely maintained a wait-and-see stance regarding future interest rate decisions.
- President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce a 50% tariff on imported copper and indicated that steeper sector-specific levies are forthcoming. Trump also said he would soon announce tariffs “at a very, very high rate, like 200%,” on pharmaceutical imports.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States has already received around $100 billion in tariff revenue this year and could see that total surge to $300 billion by the end of 2025, driven by US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade measures.
- The White House announced late Monday that US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order delaying the implementation of new tariffs from July to August 1, per Bloomberg. Trump renewed his threat of a 25% tax on imports from Japan and South Korea and shared a batch of other letters to world leaders warning of levies from 1 August. Trump also imposed 25% rates on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia, while South Africa would see a 30% tariff, and Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy. Other nations hit with levies included Indonesia with a 32% rate, Bangladesh with 35%, and Thailand and Cambodia with duties of 36%.
- Trump posted on social media on Monday that “Any Country aligning itself with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
- China’s Consumer Price Index climbed 0.1% year-over-year in June after declining 0.1% in May. The market consensus was 0% in the reported period. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI decreased by 0.1% against the expected 0% reading. Moreover, Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 3.6% YoY in June, following a 3.3% decline in May. The data came in lower than the market consensus of 3.2%. Any change in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD as China and Australia are close trading partners.
- The Financial Times reported that China is increasingly rerouting its exports through Southeast Asia to circumvent US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Direct shipments from China to the US fell by 43% in May, while China's overall exports climbed by 4.8%. This shift was marked by a 15% surge in exports to Southeast Asia and a 12% increase to the European Union (EU). However, the US trade agreement with Vietnam now includes a 40% tariff on transshipped goods to curb such practices.
- Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates was neither the outcome millions of Australians had hoped for nor what markets had anticipated. Chalmers added that the central bank has signaled a clear direction on inflation and interest rates moving forward.
Australian Dollar holds gains near 0.6550 after breaking above nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6540 on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a persistent bullish sentiment as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, strengthening the bullish bias. Additionally, the pair has moved slightly above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.
The AUD/USD pair may encounter its primary barrier at the eight-month high of 0.6590, which was reached on July 1. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and open the doors for the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6680.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test its initial support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6538. A successful breach below this level would weaken the market sentiment and put downward pressure on the pair to test the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6478.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.25% | -0.14% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.00% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.12% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.14% | 0.03% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.11% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.06% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.00% | -0.19% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
- EUR/JPY retreats after marking a one-day high of high at 172.28 on Wednesday.
- The safe-haven Japanese Yen gains ground due to the renewed trade concerns.
- EU Maros Sefcovic said that significant progress had been made toward reaching a framework trade agreement with the US.
EUR/JPY continues its deterioration for the second successive session after pulling back from a one-year high of 172.28, reached on Wednesday. The currency cross is trading around 171.40 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
The EUR/JPY cross depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) receives support from safe-haven demand, driven by the renewed trade concerns. US President Donald Trump unveiled a new wave of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, sparking concerns about a renewed global trade war. These letters outline individual tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50% for eight countries starting August 1. Additionally, Trump has announced the new 50% tariff on US copper imports, which will take effect on August 1, per Reuters.
However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) may struggle as trade negotiations between the United States (US) and Japan showed signs of strain, particularly over Japan’s rice market protections. This follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, effective August 1.
Japan is pushing for ministerial-level tariff negotiations with the United States (US) ahead of the August 1 deadline. Tokyo is looking to set up talks between its chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the World Expo on July 19. Japan is also seeking to arrange a preliminary phone call and potentially a meeting between Prime Minister Ishiba and Secretary Bessent.
On Wednesday, European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic stated that "good progress" had been made toward a framework trade agreement with the US, suggesting a deal could be reached "potentially even in the coming days." He also highlighted that the extended deadline offers additional time to conclude negotiations. However, Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned that the talks remain “very complicated” and could stretch to the final hour.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Thursday that the US Dollar's (USD) status as global reserve currency remains solid. Akazawa added that Japan is unlikely to face US demands to prop up Japanese Yen as the USD is more susceptible to selling.
Key quotes
Dollar's status as global reserve currency remains solid.
Japan unlikely to face US demands to prop up Yen as Dollar more susceptible to selling.
Another plaza accord type US-led coordinated depreciation of dollar unlikely.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.29% lower on the day to trade at 145.91.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- The Japanese Yen recovers further from a two-week low touched against USD on Wednesday.
- Tariff jitters benefit the safe-haven JPY, while Fed rate cut bets undermine the Greenback.
- Reduced BoJ rate hike bets could act as a headwind for the JPY and warrant caution for bulls.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is building on the previous day's goodish recovery from over a two-week low and scaling higher for the second consecutive day against a broadly retreating US Dollar (USD). Investors remain on edge amid persistent uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which, in turn, benefit the safe-haven JPY. The USD, on the other hand, is undermined by prospects for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, bolstered by FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. This, in turn, contributes to the USD/JPY pair's intraday slide back below the 146.00 round figure during the Asian session.
Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that rising trade tensions would add to woes for Japan’s economy and force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to forgo raising interest rates this year. The expectations were reaffirmed by Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this Thursday, which hinted that inflation pressures might be cooling off. This, along with domestic political uncertainty, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit further losses for the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look to the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, would drive the Greenback.
Japanese Yen attracts safe-haven flows amid rising trade tensions
- US President Donald Trump issued a new round of trade letters, outlining individual tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50% for eight countries starting August 1. A notable aspect of the 20 letters sent so far was Trump's direct threat to increase tariffs if any countermeasures are taken.
- Moreover, Trump announced 50% tariffs on copper and has also threatened to impose levies of up to 200% on foreign drugs, fueling concerns about the economic fallout from trade tensions. This assists the safe-haven Japanese Yen to attract buyers for the second straight day on Thursday.
- Japan hopes to arrange meetings between its chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to the World Expo on July 19. Japan also aims to secure a call prior to the meeting, and possibly a meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Bessent.
- Minutes from the June 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday indicated that policymakers anticipate that rate cuts would be appropriate later this year and that any price shock from tariffs could be temporary or modest. This is seen weighing on the US Dollar and the USD/JPY pair.
- A report released by the Bank of Japan on Thursday revealed that Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.2% in June and rose by 2.9% compared to the same time period last year. The readings were in line with estimates, though the annual rate marked a deceleration from May's 3.3%.
- Moreover, data released earlier this week showed that the growth in Japan's nominal wages decelerated for the third straight month in May 2025, and inflation-adjusted real wages posted the steepest decline in 20 months. This backs the case for the BoJ caution in the near term.
- Recent media polls raised doubts about whether the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito will be able to secure enough seats to maintain their majority at the House of Councillors election on July 20. This adds a layer of uncertainty and could cap the JPY.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, due later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches from Fed officials will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path, which should drive the USD and the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY bears await break below 100-hour SMA before placing fresh bets
From a technical perspective, intraday breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the monthly swing low could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears. The subsequent fall, however, finds some support near the 145.75 region, representing the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). The said area should now act as a pivotal point, below which spot prices could extend the fall towards the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level, around the 145.50-145.45 area. Some follow-through selling could eventually drag the pair to the next relevant support near the 145.00 psychological mark, or the 50% retracement level.
On the flip side, any recovery beyond the 146.00 mark might now confront resistance near the 146.25-146.30 area ahead of the 146.55 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the corrective pullback has run its course and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 147.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 147.60-147.65 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 mark, or the June monthly swing high.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
- The US Dollar Index loses ground near 97.30 in Thursday’s Asian session, down 0.17% on the day.
- Fed officials split between concerns over tariff-fueled inflation and signs of labor market weakness and economic strength, noted the Fed Minutes.
- The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be the highlight later on Thursday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, retreats from near a two-week high to 97.30 amid tariff threats after US President Donald Trump unveiled a new round of tariff demand letters.
Trump on Wednesday said he would impose a 50% tariff rate on Brazil, one of the highest so far announced for the levies, which will take effect in August. He also said that he will slap a 30% duty on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 20% on goods from the Philippines.
Furthermore, Trump said Wednesday that the new 50% tariff on US copper imports, which he had announced the previous day, will take effect on August 1, per Reuters. The decision was made after he received a national security assessment. The uncertainty around tariff policies and the impact of tariffs on the US economy could weigh on the Greenback in the near term.
According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June 17-18 meeting, FOMC Minutes, few officials expressed the view that interest rates might decrease as early as this month, while the majority of policymakers continued to have concerns regarding the inflationary pressures anticipated from Trump's implementation of import taxes aimed at altering global trade.
Most participants at the Fed's meeting saw some reduction in the Fed funds rate this year as appropriate, citing that any price shock from tariffs was expected to be "temporary or modest.”
Later on Thursday, traders will keep an eye on the release of US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term. Apart from this, the Fed officials are set to speak later on the same day, including Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the new 50% tariff on US copper imports, which he had announced the previous day, will take effect on August 1, per Reuters. The decision was made after he received a national security assessment.
"I am announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025, after receiving a robust NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT," said Trump in a post on his Truth Social media platform.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.17% lower on the day to trade at 97.35.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1510 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1541 and 7.1757 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- NZD/USD gains traction to near 0.6010 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The RBNZ left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its July meeting.
- Traders brace for the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which is due later on Thursday.
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6010 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand struck a cautious tone in its latest policy meeting. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which is due later on Thursday.
The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25% at its July meeting on Wednesday, citing an elevated level of uncertainty and near-term risks to inflation. The New Zealand central bank has paused the easing cycle for the first time since it started reducing rates in August 2024. The current borrowing cost is at the lowest level since August 2022.
Policymakers said the decision to hold the interest rate would allow the central bank to assess whether weakness in the domestic economy is persisting and how inflation and inflation expectations evolve before their next meeting in August. Volkmar Baur, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, said that policy update points to continued caution on the part of the RBNZ, "and we continue to assume that it will take at most one more step before the cycle ends. This should support the NZD."
On the USD’s front, US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and soon introduce long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, raising fears of a global trade war.
The US and China agreed to a trade framework in June that restored a fragile truce, but with many details still unclear. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-China trade agreement. Any renewed trade tensions could undermine the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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