Forex News
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that the US Nonfarm Payrolls release is unlikely to have the market impact it once did, even as recent JOLTS data point to improving hiring and fewer layoffs. He argues that higher volatility in payrolls and the Federal Reserve’s current focus on inflation rather than jobs reduce the significance of today’s report for the Dollar.
Jobs data seen less decisive
"As a preview, we already got the JOLT survey on Tuesday. And that certainly gives reason to hope for a fairly positive job market. The hiring rate in the US has risen slightly but steadily over the past few months, while the layoff rate has declined slightly. Taken together, this points to somewhat faster job growth."
"With the end of the Iran conflict (at least from the market’s perspective - it no longer seems interested in it), the US labor market is once again coming into a bit more focus for the fx markets. However, I don’t believe that today's numbers will come close to having the importance reports in the past once had."
"At the moment, therefore, it is somewhat more difficult to distinguish between signals and “noise” in the labor market based on NFPs. And that is why it could well be that the market (much like Kevin Warsh) won’t be looking quite so closely today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Euro weakens against the British Pound after softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation data.
- European Central Bank officials remain divided over the future path of interest rates.
- The Eurozone Unemployment Rate holds at a record low of 6.2%.
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8550 on Thursday, down 0.21% on the day, as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the British Pound (GBP) after another batch of data reinforced expectations of a more cautious European Central Bank (ECB). A sharper-than-expected slowdown in Eurozone inflation has prompted investors to reduce the odds of another interest rate hike at the ECB's July meeting, limiting demand for the shared currency.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) eased to 2.8% YoY in June from 3.2% previously, below market expectations of 3%. Core HICP, which excludes volatile items, also slowed to 2.4% YoY from 2.6% in May, reinforcing expectations that underlying price pressures continue to moderate.
On Thursday, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.2% in May, matching the revised reading from the previous month and coming in below market expectations of 6.3%. Although the resilience of the labor market remains supportive for the economy, it was not enough to offset the bearish impact of the inflation data on monetary policy expectations.
Comments from ECB officials also highlighted diverging views. Belgian central bank Governor Pierre Wunsch said he does not support further monetary policy tightening, arguing that inflation surprises ahead of the July meeting are more likely to be on the downside. He added that stronger second-round inflation effects would be required to justify another rate hike. In contrast, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said the central bank's next move would either be a rate hike or a hold, warning that stronger wage growth could keep inflationary pressures persistent.
Societe Generale argues that fading expectations of further ECB tightening, combined with a relatively stable political backdrop in the United Kingdom (UK), could keep the cross under pressure. Market participants now await speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Friday for fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Channel.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.32% | -0.49% | -0.89% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.29% | -0.57% | |
| EUR | 0.32% | -0.17% | -0.55% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.49% | 0.17% | -0.37% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.23% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.89% | 0.55% | 0.37% | 0.72% | 0.71% | 0.57% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.72% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.42% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.71% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | -0.07% | -0.23% | -0.57% | 0.12% | 0.09% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.57% | 0.25% | 0.08% | -0.30% | 0.42% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 110K in June, slowing from the impressive 172K increase recorded in May.
- The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%.
- US employment data could influence the Fed policy outlook and ramp up the US Dollar’s volatility.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
With investors pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook with the new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm, the underlying details of the employment report could influence the timing of a possible interest rate increase.
Payroll data is among the indicators that generally trigger a significant market reaction. Still, this time, with all eyes on the inflation front, only a dismal print could hurt the US Dollar in a meaningful way.
What to expect from the Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 110K following three consecutive months of surprisingly strong increases. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), is projected to edge higher to 3.5% from 3.4% in May.
TD Securities analysts note that they expect NFP to rise at a softer pace than what markets expect.
“We expect June payrolls to moderate to 80k (55k private, 25k government) after strong early‑2026 gains. Job growth broadened beyond healthcare, led by trade/transport and leisure, but should cool this month. Local governments may stay firm on World Cup effects. We see the Unemployment Rate edging down to 4.2% as participation dips. AHE likely moderated to 0.2% m/m (3.5% y/y),” they add.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private sector employment in the US grew by 98K in June. This print followed the 122K increase recorded in May and came in below the market expectation of 113K.
Similarly, National Bank of Canada Senior Economist Jocelyn Paquet forecasts a 90K increase in NFP and explain:
“Based on the weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global's flash composite PMI, job creation likely remained fairly robust during the month, although not as robust as what we had been accustomed to between February and May. Layoffs, for their part, may have increased slightly, judging by the rise in initial jobless claims recorded between the May and June survey periods. These two factors combined should, in our view, result in an increase of 90K in nonfarm payrolls.”
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 172K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
How will the US June Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
Although crude Oil prices came down to levels seen since pre-US-Iran conflict, investors remain concerned over global inflation remaining sticky, mainly due to heightened costs of consumer electronics via AI-driven hardware demand. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) has been outperforming its major rivals, supported by growing expectations for a tighter Fed policy.
Hammack flags broad inflation, keeps rate hike option alive
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a moderately hawkish message with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.4/10.
This is slightly softer relative to the historical average of 7/10 but still signals a tightening bias. By stressing that the job market is “right around full employment” and that growth “looks good,” while warning that “inflation is still too high” and that rate hikes may need to be considered, the speech underscores a willingness to tighten policy despite concerns about the broader economy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 34% probability of the Fed raising the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as early as July, compared to a 6% chance seen in early June. Moreover, the probability of at least two rate increases by the end of 2026 now sits slightly above 40%.
Another positive surprise of 130K or higher in the headline NFP could feed into July rate hike projections and fuel another leg higher in the USD. In this scenario, EUR/USD could remain under bearish pressure and extend its downtrend in the near term.
On the other hand, a significantly disappointing print below 70K could trigger an upward correction in the pair. However, a steady bullish reversal is unlikely to materialize unless Fed policymakers shift their tone and put more emphasis on labor market conditions rather than the inflation outlook.
Given three consecutive months of very strong prints, however, a single NFP miss is likely to be overlooked, keeping any potential rebound in EUR/USD short-lived.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook doesn’t point to oversold conditions and suggests that the bearish bias stays intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart remains below 40 after recovering from oversold territory and the pair trades slightly above the lower arm of the Bollinger Band.”
“On the downside, 1.1320-1.1280 (lower arm of the Bollinger Band, static level) forms the first support ahead of 1.1160 (static level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, static level).”
“Looking north, a strong resistance area could be spotted at the 1.1485-1.1500 region (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), round level) before 1.1600 (round level, 50-day SMA) and 1.1650-1.1660 (200-day SMA, descending trend line, 100-day SMA).”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
(This story was corrected at 09:16 GMT to say in the subheading "How will the US June Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?" instead of May.)
- USD/JPY drops abruptly to session lows around 161.00 from fresh 40-year highs near 163.00.
- The lack of fundamental drivers to explain the move has raised speculation of some Tokyo action.
- The pair's next support levels are 161.00 and 160.50.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) staged a sharp rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, raising speculation about potential action by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF). The USD/JPY chart accelerated its reversal from 40-year highs near 163.00, finding support at a previous resistance level of 161.00.
Yen’s recovery is lacking a clear driver, which has put JPY sellers on their toes, wary of a new round of interventions, as Friday’s July 4 holiday in the US provides an ideal opportunity for Tokyo authorities to optimise the impact of their actions.
Asked about the Yen's sudden recovery, the Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to make any comment, as reported by Reuters. Earlier on the day, Toshihiro Nagahama, a private-sector member on Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, affirmed that he expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike interest rates again before the end of the year. These comments, however, are unlikely to have boosted the JPY's comeback, as they just confirm a scenario already priced in by the market.
Technical Analysis: Next supports are at 161.00 and 160.50
USD/JPY trades at 161.24, after trimming the previous day's losses with momentum indicators picking up from oversold levels. Intraday charts, however, highlight a strong immediate bearish bias, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) just above 30, hinting at stretched conditions, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, reinforcing waning upside momentum.
On the downside, the area between the June 19 low, around 161.00, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June 11-30 upleg, at 160.78, has contained the decline so far. Further down, the June 18 low near 160.50 emerges as the next downside target. The 160.00 psychological level seems too far away for today.
On the topside, bulls might find resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle, which is coincident with the June 25 and 26 lows at the 161.60 area, ahead of Wednesday's lows at 162.30.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on July 2 at 10:11 GMT to say that the USD/JPY's next support is at 161.00, not 1612.00 as previously written.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.32% | -0.49% | -0.89% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.29% | -0.57% | |
| EUR | 0.32% | -0.17% | -0.55% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.49% | 0.17% | -0.37% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.25% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.89% | 0.55% | 0.37% | 0.72% | 0.71% | 0.57% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.72% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.42% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.71% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | -0.07% | -0.25% | -0.57% | 0.12% | 0.09% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.57% | 0.25% | 0.08% | -0.30% | 0.42% | 0.39% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Societe Generale highlights that state-controlled banks in India have been actively selling Dollars for a second day after USD/INR briefly moved above its 50-day moving average. The report notes that supportive factors such as FPI debt inflows and lower Oil and Gold prices are being offset by hawkish Federal Reserve repricing. RBI’s net short USD position expanded sharply in May before recent policy steps.
Indian banks lean against Dollar strength
"In Asia, state-controlled banks of India actively sold dollars for second straight day this morning following a brief return of USD/INR above the 50dma (95.03) yesterday."
"Tailwinds of FPIs debt portfolio inflows, lower oil and gold prices have been negated by hawkish repricing of the Fed."
"Yesterday’s minor pullback in front-end US yields on Warsh’s inflation comments were brushed aside."
"Data shows the net short USD book of the RBI expanded by $11.4bn to record $106.7bn in May before policy measures announced by the RBI/MoF in early June."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Frantisek Taborsky at ING notes diverging PMI signals in Central Europe, with strong Czech sentiment and weaker Poland, but still expects Polish growth above 3% in 2026. Softer Polish inflation and a potentially dovish National Bank of Poland outlook are reflected in modest rate-cut pricing. EUR/PLN faces strong resistance above 4.300, while EUR/CZK and EUR/HUF largely follow rate differentials and remain rangebound.
Zloty, koruna and forint ranges
"Yesterday's PMI in the region showed quite a mixed picture, with the Czech Republic leading the positive sentiment, while Poland surprisingly declined. However, Polish data in recent months does not show a significant turnaround in the direction of the economy, and we still expect strong growth of more than 3% this year."
"On the other hand, Tuesday's inflation in Poland showed another surprise to the downside and the July National Bank of Poland meeting next week may show a relatively dovish picture in the new forecast and forward guidance."
"This is also reflected in market pricing with around 10bp of rate cuts next year. EUR/PLN tested levels above 4.300 yesterday, but strong resistance acted as a rebound lower, closer to 4.290. Although getting above 4.300 would require a significantly dovish signal from the NBP, there is also little reason to expect the zloty to strengthen in the near future."
"On the other hand, the koruna saw some strengthening yesterday, where EUR/CZK follows the interest rate differential. The relationship has recovered in recent weeks and rates point to levels around 24.200 for now."
"Meanwhile, EUR/HUF has seen some stabilisation around 355-356, and we don't see much reason to move for now, but our bias is still down, where 350-356 could be the range for the second half of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.92 per troy ounce, up 1.38% from the $59.10 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 15.71% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 59.92 |
1 Gram | 1.93 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.89 on Thursday, down from 68.21 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
UOB strategist Quek Ser Leang highlights a constructive technical backdrop for the US Dollar Index (DXY), noting similarities with the 2021 and 2025 basing phases. He stresses that a sustained break above the weekly Ichimoku cloud near 103.20 would complete the bullish setup, while a drop below 99.55/60 around the key EMAs would invalidate the positive structure.
Key levels define bullish setup
"The USD index fell to a low of 89.20 in January 2021, a move that unfolded alongside a positive divergence on the weekly MACD. This was followed by a period of accumulation/basing, as the index traded broadly sideways for several months."
"Between August and October 2021, the index first broke above a declining trendline resistance, followed by a 21-week EMA crossover above the 55-week EMA. The index then broke decisively above the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Taken together, these technical developments gave rise to a multi-month sharp rally."
"In September 2025, the index fell to a low of 96.22, a decline that was also accompanied by a positive divergence on the weekly MACD."
"Aside from a brief dip to 95.55 in January this year, the index has also largely traded sideways, resembling another period of accumulation and basing phase. Two weeks ago, the index broke the declining trendline resistance, and currently, the 21-week EMA is poised to cross above the 55-week EMA."
"While the past technical setups resembling the current one have led to a sharp rally, there is no certainty they will result in a similar move again. That said, a clear break above the weekly cloud, now at 103.20, could open the way for further upside. "
"Note that the weekly cloud is set to move lower over the coming weeks, similar to the pattern in 2022. On the downside, a breach of 99.55/60, where the EMAs currently reside, would nullify the positive setup."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.50% at next week’s meeting, keeping policy too accommodative with the cash rate still below neutral. Newnaha anticipates further hikes in September and sees Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation running above RBNZ forecasts, arguing against delaying the start of the tightening cycle.
Hiking now but at measured pace
"TD forecasts the RBNZ to hike the OCR 25bps to 2.50% at next week's meeting, but it could signal patience around how quickly it intends to lift the cash rate towards neutral. This should cap any uptick in yields on hike headlines while initial NZD strength is unlikely to be outsized."
"While we concede recent oil moves may see the RBNZ hike at a slower pace than our forecast(Jul, Sep, Dec and Feb to 3.25%), we stick with our call for a July hike."
"A 25bps hike at the July meeting would still have monetary policy too accommodative. The cash rate is currently around 75-100bps below neutral."
"Taking 50bps of those cuts back over July & Sep is prudent considering markets were debating if the RBNZ had an inflation problem brewing before the US/Iran war."
"Of course the Bank may decide to wait till Sep to begin hiking. However, we struggle to see the catalyst for hiking then when conditions are already loose now and will likely loosen further if it decides to wait another two months to calibrate policy."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
When asked about the sudden spike in the Japanese Yen (JPY), Japan’s Finance Ministry declined to comment, per Reuters.
In the last hours, JPY has experienced unexpected bouts of strong buying, leaving USD/JPY volatile between 161.00 and 162.00 levels.
Traders stay alert to the prospect of intervention from Japan to prop up its stubbornly weak currency from 40-year lows against the US Dollar (USD), while weighing a possible new approach to Yen-buying from Japanese officials.
Additionally, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura has stated that he won't comment on forex levels.
Market reaction
At the press time, USD/JPY is losing 0.82% on the day at 161.22.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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