Forex News

• US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 172K in May, beating expectations of 85K.
• The Unemployment Rate held at 4.3%, while wage growth eased to 3.4%.
• The New Zealand Dollar hit its lowest level since April 8.

NZD/USD falls sharply towards the 0.5790 region on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following a stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggled to attract buyers amid a cautious market mood. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.5791, its lowest level in the last two months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States (US) economy added 172K jobs in May, significantly above market expectations of 85K and following an upwardly revised gain of 179K in April.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3%, while annual wage growth eased to 3.4% from 3.6%. The data reinforced the view that the labor market remains resilient and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher-for-longer or even raise them, supporting the Greenback.

Next week, markets will closely watch the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and labor data, while New Zealand will release the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5793, extending its downside bias as price remains below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5871 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5882. This configuration reinforces a bearish near-term tone, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into oversold territory near 23, hinting that while sellers remain in control, the downside could become more vulnerable to corrective rebounds.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at 0.5802, followed by a tighter cap at 0.5813 and then 0.5843, where prior horizontal levels may attract renewed supply. Above these, the 20-period SMA at 0.5871 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5882 add to a broader resistance band that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 0.5790; a decisive break lower would expose fresh lows and keep the bears firmly in charge.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang highlights that USD/KRW has pushed above 1530 as weakness in semiconductor stocks adds pressure on the Korean Won. He links KRW softness to foreign investor profit-taking after a sharp KOSPI rally and warns that further outflows, limited exporter repatriation of overseas earnings, and persistently high Oil prices could destabilize the currency.

Won vulnerable on chips and flows

"USD/KRW have sallied above 1530, and wobbles in semiconductor stocks today could pose another risk."

"Following a retreat in US semiconductor stocks led by an industry bellwether on Thursday, Korean chipmakers have fallen 6% in early trading today."

"KRW weakness has been ascribed to outflows amid profit-taking by foreign investors after a scorching 93% rally in the KOSPI year-to-date."

"More investor profit-taking going forward could destabilize the KRW, especially with Korean exporters not fully repatriating overseas earnings while oil prices remain sticky near USD100."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Silver plunges toward the 200-day SMA after brutal weekly selloff.
• RSI nears oversold territory, confirming aggressive downside momentum.
• Break below $67.79 exposes $61.01 and $60.00 support levels.

Silver (XAG/USD) price tanks and challenges the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $67.79 on Friday, as the white metal registers a daily loss of nearly 8% and is poised to end the week down by almost 10%, amid a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver has extended its losses this week, hitting a nine-week low of $68.03, as sellers target the 200-day SMA. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows that sellers are in charge as the index approaches oversold territory.

If XAG/USD tumbles below the 200-day SMA, the next area of interest would be the March 23 swing low of $61.01, ahead of the psychological $60.00 mark. Below this area, the next support would be the November 13 low, which turned into support at $54.39.

For a bullish reversal, Silver’s first resistance is the $70.00 mark. Above this level, the next resistance is the May 28 low-turned-resistance at $71.79, followed by the psychological $75.00 level. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at $76.17.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Standard Chartered economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee revise their Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy rate path, dropping expectations for a 50bps off-cycle hike before the 18 June meeting. They still project a 50bps increase in June and 25bps in August as inflation risks persist and PHP weakness raises imported inflation concerns. Policy easing is only expected from Q2-2027.

BSP path revised but still hawkish

"We no longer expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to deliver a 50bps off-cycle rate hike ahead of its scheduled 18 June monetary policy meeting."

"That said, we maintain our call for a 50bps hike at the June meeting, followed by a further 25bps increase in August, as inflation risks have moderated but not disappeared."

"Continued PHP depreciation also reinforces concerns on imported inflation and supports BSP’s hawkish rhetoric."

"With the off-cycle hike no longer in our baseline, we lower our end-2026 policy rate forecast to 5.25% (from 5.75% previously)."

"We continue to expect these hikes to be reversed from Q2-2027, once inflation eases more convincingly, bringing the policy rate back to 4.50% by end-2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)