Forex News
- GBP/USD rises to near 1.3245 as the British Pound outperforms its major peers.
- The British currency gains even as market experts doubt hawkish BoE repricing.
- Investors keenly await the US NFP data for September scheduled for Friday.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.15% at around 1.3245 against the US Dollar (USD) in the early European session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the British currency outperforms its peers despite market experts questioning hawkish Bank of England (BoE) repricing.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | -0.10% | 0.28% | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.16% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.20% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.11% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.07% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.26% | -0.34% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.21% | -0.07% | -0.15% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.26% | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) highlight a growing disconnect between market pricing and their own expectations for the BoE policy path. They note that “the swaps curve continues to imply about 100bps of BoE rate hikes in the next twelve months to 4.75%,” but argue that “the BoE may not need to tighten as much as markets expect,” adding rates are already in the 2%-4% neutral range.
Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned while speaking at the Monetary Economics Conference that persistently higher energy prices could challenge central bank’s stance of not raising interest rates.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally higher at the start of the week, with United States (US) Treasury Yields remaining elevated near the 19-year high of 5.23%. This week, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published on Friday.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades around 1.3240, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3387. The pair has been sliding away from late-July highs, and the EMA now aligns as overhead supply, hinting that rallies are likely to be capped while this barrier remains intact.
The Relative Strength Index (14) sits near 28, in oversold territory, suggesting that while downside pressure dominates, the pace of the decline could start to moderate if sellers hesitate at lower levels.
Analysts at UOB Group note that GBP/USD “extended its sharp decline from Wednesday, dropping to a low of 1.3205 before closing 0.16% lower at 1.3219.” They add that, “unsurprisingly, conditions are deeply oversold due to the sharp decline,” yet “the bias for GBP remains on the downside, even though any decline is likely to stay within a 1.3190/1.3245 range” in the near term.
Looking beyond the next 24 hours, UOB recalls that in its update from 23 September, when spot was at 1.3345, “it is unclear for now whether GBP could break below 1.3300,” and concedes that it “did not expect GBP to easily break 1.3300 and plunge, reaching a low of 1.3205 yesterday.” While the weakness that “started two weeks ago… appears to be overextended,” the bank still sees “a chance for GBP to test the June low of 1.3140 before stabilisation is likely.” On the topside, UOB flags that “a breach of 1.3295 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.3390) would indicate that 1.3140 is out of reach.”
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Indian Rupee declines at open against the US Dollar due to a rise in oil prices over the weekend.
- US President Trump pushes back hopes of near-term diplomacy with Iran.
- Analysts at MUFG expect the RBI to deliver 50bps interest rate hike in the remaining year.
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) due to significant gains in oil prices over the weekend. As of writing, the USD/INR pair is up 0.15% to near 95.95.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on October 19 is up 2.22% to near Rs. 9,045.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to provide support to the Indian currency through intervention in both spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets. "Nearly every day we have seen some amount of interventions, which signals that the RBI wants to keep a firm floor under the rupee for now, traders say, Reuters reported.
What caused a significant increase in oil prices over the weekend?
Oil prices attracted significant bids as United States (US) President Donald Trump pushed back hopes of diplomacy with Iran, adding that additional military strikes before the midterm elections are possible, Fox News reported. Trump expressed confidence that Washington is going to win this war very soon, and as soon as we win it, the oil will go down, way down to what it was before the war.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, says his country is open to “real diplomacy” but ready for an “apocalyptic war” if the US attacks again, Al Jazeera reported.
US Yields remain key concern
Elevated US bond yields due to firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates again this year continue to remain a key concern for riskier assets. 10-year US Treasury Yields remain firm near its 19-year high of 5.23% posted on Friday.
Strategists at OCBC note that the recent run of resilient US data and sticky inflation has translated into firmer expectations for further Fed action, with “market pricing currently implies around a 70% probability of another 25bp rate hike in October, highlighting the market's growing conviction that the Fed's inflation fight is not yet over.”
RBI caution persists as inflation risks linger despite subdued headline prints
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that, although "year-to-date CPI inflation has averaged 3.8%, below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FY2026-2027 forecast of 5.0%", the underlying price backdrop remains concerning. They argue that "the persistence of cost pressures suggests policymakers will likely maintain a cautious stance," reinforcing their view that the RBI will stay in "wait-and-see mode." In Commerzbank’s assessment, "higher global crude oil prices and evidence of second-round effects continue to pose upside risks to the inflation outlook," keeping the central bank wary even as headline inflation runs below target projections.
Contrary to the view from Commerzbank, strategists at MUFG view firm domestic growth and signs of broadening in core pressures are strengthening the case for a shallow 50bp hike in second half of FY27, making October’s meeting a live one.
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.95, holding above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.61, which keeps the near-term bias bullish. The recent recovery from sub-95.00 levels is supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.7, suggesting constructive but not overextended momentum as the pair consolidates near recent highs.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 95.61, which protects the advance and would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. Looking up, the 96.10 is the immediate hurdle for the pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- EUR/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery amid the bullish USD undertone.
- Fed hike bets, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical risk underpin the safe-haven buck.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent declining trend.
The EUR/USD pair fills a modest weekly bearish gap, though it lacks bullish conviction and struggles below the 1.1400 mark through the Asian session on Monday. Moreover, spot prices remain close to the lowest level since July 28, touched last Thursday, and seem vulnerable amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
Against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, oil-driven inflation fears lifted market bets for another interest rate hike in October and keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff, underpins the safe-haven buck and validates the negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.
Even from a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a clear bearish bias below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below zero with the line under its signal and a negative histogram, reinforcing persistent downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 28 signals oversold conditions that could slow the decline but have yet to trigger a meaningful rebound.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 1.1350 horizontal support before positioning for further weakness toward the year-to-date low, near 1.1325 touched in June, en route to the 1.1300 round figure. On the top side, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the 1.1460 supply zone. A move above could lift the EUR/USD pair beyond the 1.1500 psychological mark, though it is likely to remain capped near the 200-day SMA at 1.1557.
Spot prices would need to reclaim this barrier to ease the broader bearish tone and open scope for a more sustained recovery in the near term as the market focus shifts to this week's important US macro data. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due for release on Wednesday, along with the final Q2 GDP print. The attention will then turn to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the EUR/USD pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.03% | 2.31% | -1.23% | 2.14% | 2.00% | 4.33% | 2.67% | |
| EUR | -2.03% | 0.29% | -3.20% | 0.09% | -0.02% | 2.25% | 0.63% | |
| GBP | -2.31% | -0.29% | -3.49% | -0.20% | -0.31% | 1.97% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | 1.23% | 3.20% | 3.49% | 3.41% | 3.28% | 5.57% | 4.02% | |
| CAD | -2.14% | -0.09% | 0.20% | -3.41% | -0.10% | 2.10% | 0.53% | |
| AUD | -2.00% | 0.02% | 0.31% | -3.28% | 0.10% | 2.28% | 0.68% | |
| NZD | -4.33% | -2.25% | -1.97% | -5.57% | -2.10% | -2.28% | -1.59% | |
| CHF | -2.67% | -0.63% | -0.36% | -4.02% | -0.53% | -0.68% | 1.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/IDR rises as importers' FX demand and domestic portfolio outflows weaken the Indonesian Rupiah.
- CME FedWatch shows a 65.9% chance of an October rate hike, up from 57.6% last week and 9.4% last month.
- US Dollar advances amid growing market expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.
USD/IDR recovers its recent losses from the previous trading day, trading around 17,980 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces selling pressure, driven by robust foreign-exchange demand among importers and ongoing portfolio outflows from domestic assets, according to a central bank official.
Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of critical economic releases scheduled for later this week, including Indonesia’s August trade data, September inflation figures, and manufacturing activity metrics.
The USD/IDR cross appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from hawkish signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Traders are turning their focus toward key economic indicators this week, including key US employment data and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Last week, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned against allowing the public to accept elevated prices as the norm. Echoing this sentiment, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted that modest further tightening may be warranted. As a result, CME FedWatch Tool suggests that money markets are now pricing in a 65.9% chance of a benchmark rate hike at the October Fed meeting, up from 57.6% a week ago and just 9.4% a month ago.
Traders are closely tracking geopolitical developments in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump recently rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Tehran had overplayed its hand, though he noted negotiations are expected to resume this week. Furthermore, President Trump expressed confidence that the conflict with Iran would conclude soon, while keeping open the possibility of additional military strikes before the midterm elections.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- Most Asian stock markets edge lower on Monday.
- Ongoing tensions in the Middle East drive oil prices higher and dampen investor appetite for risk.
- India’s NIFTY 50 slumps below the crucial 23,000 support level.
Asian equities mostly trade in negative territory on Monday, pressured by rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields. Traders doubt that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement soon.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Tehran was desperate to make a deal, per Reuters. Trump said that he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, though Iran shows no sign of watering down its proposals.
The Indian stock market faces some selling pressure on Monday, with the NIFTY 50 falling by 1.25% to 22,855 amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex tumbled over 1.30% to 72,945. Volatility could remain elevated as traders head towards the month-end expiry of Nifty and Bank Nifty contracts on Tuesday.
The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark, declined 0.06% to 66,330. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said on Friday that Trump expressed concern about the Yen's weakness during their latest summit. Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reconfirmed "the yen's undervaluation is problematic" after speaking by phone with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The SHANGHAI, China’s main stock market index, dropped by 1.75% to 3,820. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 0.65% to 24,665. The Shenzhen Stock Index slumped by 3.35% to 12,870.
In Taiwan, the Taiex slips by 0.28% to 48.025. The South Korean stock, the benchmark KOSPI, tumbles by 2.15% to 6,925 as traders locked in profits from large-cap tech shares.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- Gold kicks off the new week on a downbeat note amid rising October Fed rate hike bets.
- Oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated, further undermining the commodity.
- The US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD, favouring XAU/USD bears.
Gold (XAU/USD) comes under heavy selling pressure at the start of a new week, dropping below the $4,200 mark to its lowest level since August 5 during the Asian session amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook earlier this month, oil-driven inflation fears keep US bond yields pinned near multi-year highs. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate in mid-September 2026—its first rate increase in three years—and signaled that another hike is likely before the end of this year. Moreover, Fed speakers are leaning toward potential further policy tightening amid inflation risks stemming from rising energy prices. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in around a 68% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in October.
USD supported as Fed hawks keep tightening risks in focus
Strategists at OCBC note that “resilient US economic data, elevated energy prices and persistent inflation concerns continue to drive Treasury yields higher,” a backdrop that is “underpinning the USD while weighing on rate-sensitive and carry-oriented assets.” They add that “recent Fed rhetoric has also remained hawkish,” pointing to comments from New York Fed President Williams and Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who “warned that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside,” while Philadelphia Fed President Paulson cautioned that “modest further tightening may still be warranted if inflation fails to moderate.” In their view, this is reflected in current market pricing, which “implies around a 70% probability of another 25bp rate hike in October, highlighting the market's growing conviction that the Fed's inflation fight is not yet over.”
Adding to this, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), which exerts additional pressure on the commodity. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately on meeting their terms and end fighting. Trump added on Sunday that additional military strikes on Iran were possible before the midterm elections in the US.
Furthermore, Houthis continued their attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Yemen’s government forces intensified attacks against the Iran-backed group, conducting multiple air and ground operations. This adds to worries about a broader regional conflict, prompting traders to again price in the geopolitical risk premium. This, in turn, supports oil prices and underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which backs the case for a further depreciating move for the Gold price.
Traders now look forward to speeches from FOMC members, which, along with the incoming geopolitical headlines, will drive the USD and the XAU/USD pair. Traders this week will further confront the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final Q2 GDP print on Wednesday, ahead of the popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will influence Fed hike expectations and provide a fresh impetus.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair confirms a fresh breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August upswing following the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative with a declining profile, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward 38, hinting at persistent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, any further slide could find some support at the 78.6% retracement at $4,099, ahead of a more substantial structural floor at the prior swing low near $3,939, where sellers may begin to hesitate. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,226, followed by the 50.0% retracement at $4,314 and the 100-period EMA at $4,352, with higher hurdles at $4,403 and $4,513.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,952.29 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,218.79 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 151,073.30 per tola from INR 154,181.40 per tola on friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,952.29 |
10 Grams | 129,523.20 |
Tola | 151,073.30 |
Troy Ounce | 402,861.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- AUD/JPY rebounds to near 110.85 in Monday’s early European session.
- RBA is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps at its September meeting on Tuesday.
- The cross retains a negative outlook, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 111.45; the next contention level to watch is 100.00.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 110.85, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as increasingly sticky inflation underpins a hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The RBA is anticipated to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 4.35% to 4.60% at the conclusion of a meeting on Tuesday. That would be the fourth increase in 2026 and mark its highest level rate since 2011.
“The ongoing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the tendency of the RBA to view the resultant increase in oil prices as much more of an inflation shock than a growth shock… makes us view two rate hikes (September and November) as more likely than one,” said ANZ analysts last week.
Attention will shift to Australia’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday. The headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 4.1%. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the near term.
Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the downside for the JPY. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said on Friday that US President Donald Trump expressed concern about the Yen's weakness during their latest summit.
Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reconfirmed "the yen's undervaluation is problematic" after speaking by phone with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
RBA seen delivering decisive hike as Australia data stays hot
Economists at ING expect the RBA to “deliver a decisive 25bp rate hike on Tuesday,” arguing that the move reflects “an economy that continues to run hot across multiple fronts.” They highlight that “labour market conditions remain tight, second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, and recent inflation readings came in stronger than expected,” reinforcing the case for further tightening. ING also points to upcoming price data, noting that “August CPI data is likely to accelerate further to 4.1% year-on-year, driven primarily by higher diesel and food prices, alongside persistent underlying core inflation pressures.”
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY remains capped under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as the spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is closer to the lower end of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the midline at 41.58, hinting at weak but not oversold downside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the Bollinger middle band near 111.45, en route to the September 22 high of 112.22 and the 100-day SMA around 112.80. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary Bollinger band near 113.70.
On the downside, the critical support level is located at the 100.00 psychological level. Further south, the lower limit Bollinger band at 109.25 acts as the next key support, where sellers may start to lose traction if tested.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
- EUR/JPY may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 177.00.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 41.43, signalling weak yet stabilizing momentum.
- The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 177.88.
EUR/JPY gains ground after registering modest losses the previous day, trading around 179.70 during Asian hours on Monday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross continues to trade within a descending channel pattern, pointing to a persistent bearish outlook.
The EUR/JPY cross retains a bearish near-term bias as it remains below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA sitting just above price hints at immediate topside pressure, while the longer EMA reinforces a broader capped tone. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.43 stays below the midline, suggesting weak but stabilizing momentum after the recent pullback.
The EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 177.00, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the nine-day EMA at 177.88. A break above the short-term price average could trigger a bullish reversal and support the cross as it tests the 50-day EMA at 182.17. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.60, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
However, strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Japanese Yen is leading G10 gains against the US Dollar, noting that "JPY is outperforming on verbal intervention & FX comments from both PM Takaichi & FinMin Katayama." They point out that the latest remarks from Japan’s political leadership, expressing concern over a weak Yen, have provided notable near-term support and helped drive what the bank describes as an impressive move in the currency.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.27% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.28% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.27% | 0.04% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.29% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.14% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | -0.27% | -0.29% | -0.24% | -0.36% | -0.45% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.24% | -0.14% | -0.23% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.36% | 0.14% | -0.10% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.45% | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.17% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CHF prolongs its uptrend for the fourth straight day amid a combination of factors.
- The Fed-SNB rate gap undermines the CHF and supports spot prices amid a bullish USD.
- Rising Fed hike bets, elevated US bond yields and geopolitical risks underpin the buck.
The USD/CHF pair attracts some follow-through buying for the fourth straight day, hitting a fresh high since May 2025 during the Asian session on Monday. Bulls now await acceptance above the 0.8300 mark before positioning for further gains amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has been underperforming against its American counterpart on the back of the widening interest rate gaps between the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the SNB kept its key policy rate unchanged at 0% during its September meeting, citing global oil price dynamics and regional uncertainties. In contrast, the US central bank maintained a comparatively hawkish policy outlook following the widely expected 25 basis points (bps) rate hike earlier this month.
Moreover, energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further Fed tightening and keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, benefits the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and lends additional support to the USD/CHF pair. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to fully open the Strait immediately upon meeting their terms and end fighting.
Furthermore, Trump said on Sunday that additional military strikes on Iran were possible before the midterm elections in the US. Adding to this, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran continued their attacks on Saudi Arabia, prompting traders to again price in the geopolitical risk premium. This favors USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CHF pair remains to the upside. Traders now look to speeches from influential FOMC members for some impetus later during the North American session.
USD/CHF daily chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/CHF pair holds comfortably above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7951, which suggests a firmly bullish near-term tone as buyers maintain control over the broader trend. On the downside, initial structural demand is seen at 0.8200 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7951, which should act as a key pivotal zone on any corrective pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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