Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to slightly steepen its S$NEER policy band slope on Wednesday. With tightening largely priced in, the immediate Singapore Dollar (SGD) reaction may be muted. While a steeper slope should support SGD, persistent US Dollar (USD) strength and elevated US Treasury yields could limit gains.
Policy slope support versus strong USD
"Focus on Wed’s MAS policy decision and 3Q GDP. SGD softened modestly against the USD on Monday, although the move remained contained despite broader USD strength and elevated US Treasury yields."
"With expectations for another slight tightening already largely priced in, the immediate SGD reaction may be muted unless MAS delivers an element of surprise, either through a more aggressive adjustment or an unexpected hold. The accompanying GDP estimates and MAS’ assessment of inflation risks will also shape expectations for the policy path ahead."
"Beyond Wednesday, we expect USD direction and US Treasury yields to remain important drivers of USD/SGD. While a steeper S$NEER slope should provide underlying support for SGD, sustained USD strength and elevated US Treasury yields could continue to constrain gains against the USD."
"USD/SGD was last at 1.2810 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell modestly. 2-way trade still likely, as we keep a look out for rallies to fade into."
"Resistance at 1.2820 (100 DMA), 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740/50 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high, 50 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Fed Funds forward pricing may be nearing the end of its third upward leg this year, with current expectations just below 5% and the US Dollar (USD) having risen alongside each repricing. He notes that further upside in terminal Fed Funds pricing likely requires a significant upside surprise in US core Consumer Price Index (CPI), limiting additional Dollar strength from rates.
Fed repricing and Dollar response
"We appear to be coming to the end of the third leg up in Fed pricing this year. These uplifts in 12-month forward pricing of (effective) Fed Funds, have each taken the Dollar higher."
"Repricing 1-year forward rates from 3.2% to 3.8% at the start of the Gulf crisis helped the DXY above 100; 4.2% dragged the DXY above 101 and getting rate pricing above 4.5% has seen DXY reach 102.the current pricing is just below 5% for the headline Funds rate, which is 20bp higher than the highest of the 65 forecasters in the Bloomberg survey, and 50bp above the consensus."
"Questions about how high bond yields could get have been a feature of many recent conversations. The fact that 10year notes yielded 13% and Fed Funds were above 15% on my first day at work in 1984 is a reminder not to be too surprised by higher yields (the low yields of the post-GFC period were every bit as unusual as the high ones of the early 1990s), but the spike in bond yields will do some work for the Fed and tomorrow’s core CPI data will have to come in well above the consensus 2.5% print, if we are to see any further uptick in market pricing of terminal Fed Funds."
"The dollar has, mostly, tracked US rate expectations higher. That doesn’t have to continue, however."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF declines 0.18% to 0.8331 as Dollar demand weakens.
- Fed's Williams sees one more rate hike in 2026, none in 2027.
- US CPI and PPI data will shape December Fed hike expectations.
The Swiss Franc registers gains versus the US Dollar on Tuesday as risk appetite improves and energy prices retreat, weighing on the Greenback, which failed to advance even though US Treasury yields soared ahead of the US CPI release. The USD/CHF trades at 0.8331, down 0.18%.
USD/CHF slides despite elevated Treasury yields as Fed policy expectations shift
The Greenback is pressured even though housing data was positive, with Existing Home Sales rising from 3.93 million to 3.99 million, for a 1.5% rise. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average cooled from 25.25K to 24.75K, revealing a low-hiring, low-firing environment and a solid US jobs market.
Meanwhile, geopolitics remained the main driver of financial markets. Newswires reported explosions in Saudi Arabia as the Houthis warned of attacks on Oil facilities. At the same time, the Yemeni Deputy Defence Minister said that the battle with the Houthis is “open” on all fronts, reported Al Hadath.
In the meantime, US Treasury yields edged lower as New York Fed President John Williams said in a Bloomberg News interview that he sees another rate hike in 2026 but none in 2027.
Money markets do not expect a Fed rate hike in October, with odds slim at 23%, but do expect one in December, with odds at 90%.
Ahead, the Swiss economic docket is absent, with traders leaning on US dynamics. Inflation figures on the consumer and producer side are widely expected to provide clues for the potential future of interest rates.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8326. The pair holds above the cluster of simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day SMA) around 0.8172 and is trading north of the rising parallel channel top near 0.8277, which together suggest a firm bullish near-term bias. The broader uptrend support line, now coming in at the break area around 0.8479, stays overhead and outlines the next structural objective, while a moderately elevated Relative Strength Index (14) near 60.95 hints at constructive but not yet overbought momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the latest close itself at 0.8326, followed by the former channel ceiling at 0.8277 and the channel floor at 0.8205, before the grouped long-term SMAs around 0.8172. On the topside, the rising trend-line break zone at 0.8479 acts as the next key resistance level; a sustained move through this barrier would open the way for an extension of the current advance, while failure to do so could trigger a corrective pullback towards the 0.8277–0.8205 support band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.42% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.46% | -0.39% | -0.49% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.42% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.37% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.27% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Euro (EUR) is marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) on the softer USD tone, with ECB Governor Stournaras signalling continued gradual tightening. They judge EUR/USD retains a soft undertone and may be overshooting, as front-end spreads and risk reversals adjust, while their fair value model points to equilibrium around 1.1250, above current spot.
Euro edges up as ECB stays gradual
"The EUR is marginally higher on the day, reflecting the generally softer tone of the USD. ECB Governor Stournaras remarked that the central bank will likely stick with its policy of gradual monetary policy tightening."
"Final German September CPI was confirmed at 3.3% in the year. The EUR retains a soft undertone but spot pricing may be overshooting somewhat."
"Front-end spreads have narrowed a little from the early October levels and short-term risk reversal pricing has pared the premium for EUR puts somewhat. Our fair value model suggests spot equilibrium sits around 1.1250 currently."
"EUR/USD short-term technicals: Neutral/bearish – Bearish pressure on the EUR may be moderating but there is little indication from short-term price action that a rebound is developing."
"Intraday price signals suggest a minor low may be developing around the mid-1.11 area. But short-term trend resistance remains intact at 1.1215 and a push above this area is the bare minimum the EUR needs to achieve to strengthen in the short run."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
On Tuesday, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin appeared at Howard University and said 2 percent inflation isn't a unicorn and that “we can hit it,” adding that Fed policymakers see the impact of AI investment on US inflation.
Barkin commented that it is clear that inflation is “enduring,” and acting “makes sense.”
Key highlights:
2% inflation not some unicorn, something we can hit
We can see impact of AI investment on US inflation
It is clear that inflation is enduring, acting makes sense
It seems clear at this point that shocks are continuing
Doing something about inflation makes sense.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.47% | -0.37% | -0.49% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.16% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.35% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.15% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.37% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.14% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
On Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams, a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he believes “disinflationary forces are at play,” and added that “one more interest-rate hike is appropriate this year.”
Williams commented that there are no signs the jobs market is contributing to inflation and added, “AI is the inflation driver I am watching most closely.” He added that he doesn’t see a rate hike in 2027.
Key highlights:
I still believe disinflationary forces are at play
No sign the labor market is contributing to inflation
I am not seeing broad price pressure outside AI and energy
AI is the inflation driver I am watching most closely
The reason for a September hike ‘starts from risk management’
The rate path will be about maintaining a balanced economy
Currently sees no need for rate hike in 2027
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.50% | -0.36% | -0.48% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.30% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.14% | -0.13% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.28% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.14% | -0.11% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD gains ground as a softer US Dollar offers relief ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI report.
- The daily technical outlook remains bearish as the pair trades below its key SMAs.
- An oversold RSI raises the possibility of a corrective bounce, although the ADX signals a strong downtrend.
EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Tuesday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) lifts the Euro (EUR). Despite the modest recovery, the pair remains near 17-month lows as fiscal and political concerns in France weigh on the single currency, while the technical picture suggests sellers remain firmly in control. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1200, up 0.41% on the day. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Wednesday could determine whether the Euro extends its rebound or faces renewed losses.
Euro under pressure as France risk premium lingers and EUR/USD tests lower range
Analysts at ING estimate that EUR/USD is currently "around 1.5% undervalued relative to short-term fundamentals," arguing that this points to a moderate France-related risk premium that "may be becoming entrenched in the Euro," and could yet "expand further if French bonds continue to lose value." For now, ING stresses that this is "not our baseline," noting that while "it’s early to call for a retightening of the OAT-Bund 10yr gap," expectations that this year's French budget can be passed via decree "may help contain the spread below 150-160bp."
ING cautions that "it’s hardly a welcoming environment for EUR bulls," with "few other domestic drivers for the Euro this week" beyond several ECB appearances, including President Christine Lagarde. The bank adds that "markets are already fully priced for a December hike, leaving limited scope for additional hawkish support, while an October move still looks unlikely."
Against this backdrop, ING warns that "a test of 1.110 remains the risk for EUR/USD, even if we expect some stabilisation today," and confirms it has "revised our EUR/USD forecast lower to 1.13 for 4Q26 and 1Q27." Price action has already been soft, with Societe Generale reporting an overnight EUR/USD range of "1.1186 - 1.1217."
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as it trades well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 29 signals oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory. The Average Directional Index (ADX) above 50 points to a strong prevailing downtrend, although stretched momentum leaves room for a corrective bounce.
On the topside, immediate resistance lies at the 1.1200 psychological mark, followed by 1.1350. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA at 1.1483 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1489 form a firm resistance zone. The 200-day SMA at 1.1591 presents a further hurdle ahead of 1.1700.
On the downside, initial support stands at 1.1150. A break below this level could open the door to the 1.1000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.15% | 0.07% | 0.54% | -0.17% | -0.52% | 0.27% | -0.42% | |
| EUR | -1.15% | -1.07% | -0.60% | -1.32% | -1.68% | -0.88% | -1.53% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | 1.07% | 0.44% | -0.24% | -0.64% | 0.21% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.54% | 0.60% | -0.44% | -0.75% | -1.11% | -0.23% | -0.92% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | 1.32% | 0.24% | 0.75% | -0.37% | 0.51% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | 0.52% | 1.68% | 0.64% | 1.11% | 0.37% | 0.80% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.88% | -0.21% | 0.23% | -0.51% | -0.80% | -0.67% | |
| CHF | 0.42% | 1.53% | 0.39% | 0.92% | 0.23% | -0.18% | 0.67% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Fresh downside pressure has weighed on the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, prompting it to recede from Monday’s fresh highs. The Greenback’s correction comes amid declining crude oil prices and mixed US Treasury yields as investors gear up for key data releases on Wednesday.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, October 14:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has set aside two daily advances in a row on Monday, slipping back to the 102.20 region amid steady pre-US CPI caution. The Inflation Rate will be the main focus, followed by the usual MBA Mortgage Applications, the Fed Beige Book, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. In addition, the Fed’s Bowman and Barkin are due to speak.
EUR/USD had taken advantage of the US Dollar’s offered stance, managing to bounce off recent lows near 1.1150 and challenge the 1.1200 barrier. Germany’s Wholesale Prices will be the sole release on the domestic calendar. The ECB’s Lagarde is also due to speak.
GBP/USD has climbed to as high as the 1.3250 zone, just to recede a tad afterwards amid the widespread upbeat tone in the risk complex. The BoE’s Bailey and Pill will speak in an otherwise empty docket across the Channel.
Further range-bound trade has seen USD/JPY navigating the low 158.00s, while at the same time disputing its key 200-day SMA. Next on tap in Japan will be Machinery Orders data, the weekly Foreign Bond Investment readings, the Capacity Utilisation gauge and the final readings of the Industrial Production, all due on October 15.
AUD/USD has further extended its choppy trade, this time coming closer to the key 0.7000 threshold. The Westpac Leading Index is only due in Oz.
Front-month WTI futures have added to the ongoing recovery, up for the fourth day in a row and approaching the $95.00 mark per barrel, despite cooling tensions in the US-Iran-Hormuz conflict.
Gold has added to Monday’s decline, meeting some contention near the $4,150 mark per troy ounce in a context of a weaker US Dollar and mixed US Treasury yields across the curve.
- Gold declines 0.37% as ten-year Treasury yields climb to 5.223%.
- WTI tops $94 as Middle East tensions reinforce inflation concerns.
- US CPI takes center stage as October Fed hike odds reach 23%.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its losses on Tuesday as US Treasury yields resumed their uptrend, erasing previous losses, even though the US Dollar faces headwinds ahead of the release of US inflation data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,157, down 0.37%.
XAU/USD slides toward $4,150 as rising Treasury yields overpower Dollar weakness
US data released earlier showed that the ADP Employment Change 4-week average dipped from 25.25K to 24.75K, a moderation in the labor market, which some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials recognized as stable. Existing Home Sales Change for September improved and grew 1.5% MoM, exceeding August’s -3.2% contraction as home sales rose from 3.93 million to 3.99 million.
Despite the data, bullion prices are losing steam, as US Treasury yields began the session on a lower note but have recently risen. The US 10-year Treasury yield is up 6 basis points to 5.223%, as energy prices continue to rise.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six currencies, dives by over 0.32% to 102.24 as its positive correlation with Oil prices breaks.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is supported by tensions in the Middle East and is up more than 1% to $94.20.
The US-Iran conflict seems far from a swift resolution, as Tehran escalated its attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports noted that traffic is near 80% of pre-war levels, an indication that crude and energy markets are stabilizing.
US President Donald Trump said the Houthis are behaving “very badly” and that he will make a decision on Iran very soon. He praised the US Navy blockade against Iran, and added that he is working with Russia and Ukraine to end the war.
Aside from this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the jobs market is very stable, growth has been solid, and that “If inflation remains persistent, then I think it’s clear what the Fed has to do.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said AI investment is affecting US yields, could help the Fed manage demand, and inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Money markets have priced in a 23% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed at the October 27-28 meeting, according to Prime Terminal.
Investors are focused on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index release, while Thursday's Producer Price Index figures and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinized.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold’s bearish bias remains intact
Gold price is still unable to decisively clear $4,200, with buyers making their second attempt this week, but they were quickly rejected, and the yellow metal fell to a fresh weekly low of $4,150, which could open the door to further downside.
Momentum continues to favor sellers as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its 50-neutral level and aiming lower.
That said, the XAU/USD first support is the weekly low, ahead of $4,100. A breach of the latter would expose the psychological $4,050 area ahead of the July 29 cycle low of $3,996, and $4,000 below.
For a bullish reversal, Gold must decisively clear $4,200. Once hurdled, a move to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,252 is on the cards. Above is the 50-day SMA at $4,339, followed by $4,500. The next stop is the 200-day SMA at $4,522.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Silver struggles below $60 as traders await US inflation data due on Wednesday
- XAG/USD holds below the Bollinger Bands midline, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
- The ADX near 19 indicates limited trend strength, although the RSI and MACD continue to favour sellers.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday, losing more than 1.5% as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and elevated US Treasury yields weigh on the non-yielding metal. However, a softer US Dollar (USD) helps contain losses ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $59.25, near two-month lows.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, trades around 102.25, below Monday’s peak of 102.61, its highest since April 2025. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could lift the US Dollar and Treasury yields and revive expectations of a rate hike at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, adding pressure on Silver.
Traders currently price in an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In contrast, softer inflation could strengthen the case for a pause and offer the metal some relief, although elevated Oil prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside and expectations of further Fed tightening alive. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD remains under the Bollinger Bands Simple Moving Average (SMA) midline at $62.29, keeping the near-term tone bearish. Momentum backs this softer bias, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifting toward the mid-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram still negative, while the Average Directional Index near 19 suggests the downtrend is present but not strongly directional.
On the downside, immediate support sits at the Bollinger lower band near $57.42, ahead of the horizontal level at $55.50 and a deeper floor at $50.00. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger SMA midline around $62.29, followed by the upper band near $67.16, with more significant barriers at $70.00 and $75.00 that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
