Forex News
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH has been trading quietly, with intraday ranges clustered around current levels. Their 24-hour view suggests the Dollar is likely to stay confined within a narrow band, reflecting the lack of fresh directional clues from recent price action.
Dollar seen confined in tight range
"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD traded in a quiet manner and closed marginally lower by 0.01% at 6.7441. When it was at 6.7430 yesterday, we stated that “the price action provides no fresh clues,” and we were of the view that USD “could trade between 6.7370 and 6.7470.” USD then traded within a tight range of 6.7377/6.7438, closing marginally lower by 0.01% at 6.7433. We are unable to derive much from the quiet price action. Today, USD could trade between 6.7390 and 6.7470."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the same view since early this month (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), when we highlighted that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300.” Although USD eked out a fresh low of 6.7377 yesterday, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum. That said, there is still a chance for USD to edge lower toward 6.7300. Overall, only a breach of 6.7530 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the mild downward pressure has eased."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities turns bearish on the Korean Won, arguing USD/KRW is likely to find support around 1,400 as prior KRW strength fades. They have entered short KRW positions versus both the Dollar and Japanese Yen via NDFs, citing stretched valuation, waning momentum and negative correlation to AI equities, while flagging unhedged foreign inflows as the key upside risk to KRW.
KRW seen rich, momentum fading
"We turn bearish KRW as USD/KRW likely finds support at 1400."
"Bullish KRW momentum is waning, valuation and negative FX correlation to AI should allow KRW to retrace some of its recent gains."
"With bullish KRW momentum finally starting to wane and AI equity sentiment stabilizing after Q2 US earnings, we entered a short KRW trade vs the USD and JPY via NDF in our model portfolio."
"KRW is broadly rich vs global currencies including the USD and JPY after the recent rally but maintains negative correlation with the KOSPI."
"The risk to the trade is foreign inflows to Korea equities without FX hedging and Korean corporate repatriation cause KRW to outperform both the USD and JPY over the next three months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rebounds from flag support as buyers defend structure.
- RSI climbs above neutral, supporting near-term upside momentum.
- Break above 0.8135 targets the flag top and 0.8200.
The USD/CHF pair recovers some ground on Tuesday after testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7866 along with the bottom trendline of the ‘bearish flag’, which so far contained price action amid the lack of conviction of buyers and sellers, regarding the trend’s direction. The pair trades at 0.8127, near the day's highs, up 0.82%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Per market structure, USD/CHF is neutral to upward-biased, with momentum favoring buyers, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is above its 50 neutral level and trending higher.
For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF must surpass August’s 17 high of 0.8135. Once cleared, it opens the path to challenge the top trendline of the ‘bearish flag'. A breach of the latter will negate the ‘bearish’ chart pattern and pave the way towards 0.8200, followed by the yearly high of 0.8207.
On the downside, if USD/CHF fails to clear 0.8135 and finishes the session below 0.8100, this could exacerbate a move to the 50-day SMA at 0.8084. A move beneath clears the path to the July 30 swing low of 0.8049, ahead of 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
(This story was corrected on August 18 at 20:11 GMT to say that “The pair trades at 0.8127, near the day's highs, up 0.82%”, not at 0.7960)
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, August 19:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held a firm tone near the 99.60s on Tuesday, keeping a mild safe-haven bid as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz stayed front and center. Gold and Oil both sold off, and most major currencies drifted lower against the Greenback. Attention now turns to a busy Wednesday, led by United Kingdom (UK) inflation, a raft of Eurozone data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.23% | 0.46% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.43% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.41% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.36% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.09% | 0.32% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.21% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | -0.43% | -0.41% | -0.36% | -0.32% | -0.21% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Iran's top negotiator repeated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Washington meets the conditions of the now-expired interim deal, while US President Donald Trump insisted in a social media post that the waterway is open and operating and that no talks with Tehran are scheduled. A vessel was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait earlier in the day, keeping a geopolitical premium under the currency.
EUR/USD traded on the soft side, holding a narrow range around the 1.1580 zone as the US Dollar kept the upper hand. The pair now looks to a busy European morning come Wednesday, with Eurozone final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures for July and a scheduled speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
GBP/USD edged lower, treading water around the mid-1.3500s ahead of the session's marquee release. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July lands early Wednesday, with the headline annual rate expected to tick higher. A hot print would revive bets on Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes and could give the Pound a lift, while a soft one would leave Sterling exposed.
USD/JPY firmed with the Dollar's safe-haven bid favoring the Greenback over the Japanese Yen and nudging the pair toward the 159.60 zone, within reach of the 160.00 handle. Japan's July trade figures are due late in the day.
AUD/USD was among the weaker majors, sliding toward the 0.7080 zone as the risk-off tilt and a firm Dollar took their toll. The Aussie faces a packed Asia-Pacific session on Wednesday, headlined by Australian employment data, alongside Consumer Inflation Expectations and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision.
Gold retreated sharply, pulling back over 1% toward the $4,350 zone despite the risk backdrop as a firmer Dollar and profit-taking weighed on the metal.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil remained on the front foot but eased off the early session highs toward the $84.00 area as traders weighed conflicting signals over whether the waterway is actually passable.
Later in the North American session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) releases the Minutes of its latest policy meeting, which traders will comb for any fresh steer on the rate path.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD rebounded after a sharper-than-expected drop to 1.2752, easing immediate downside pressure and pointing to intraday consolidation between 1.2760 and 1.2795. However, the 1–3 week view still sees the risk for the US Dollar (USD) on the downside, with scope for a move toward 1.2740 while resistance is capped near 1.2810.
Dollar seen consolidating before next leg
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD fell to a low of 1.2775 last Friday. When it was at 1.2790 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted the following: “The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a continued decline. That said, there is a chance for USD to test 1.2775 again. The next support at 1.2765 is unlikely to come into view.” While our view that USD would decline was correct, we did not expect the sharp drop to a low of 1.2752. USD rebounded from the low to close 0.16% lower at 1.2778. The immediate downward pressure has eased with the rebound, and instead of continuing to decline today, USD is more likely to consolidate within a range of 1.2760/1.2795."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have maintained the view that “the risk for USD is on the downside” since early this month. In our most recent narrative from last Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.2805), we highlighted that “while the price action continues to suggest downside risk, USD must break clearly below 1.2765 before a move to 1.2740 can be expected.” Yesterday, USD broke below 1.2765, dropping to a low of 1.2752 before rebounding to close at 1.2778 (-0.16%). While we would have preferred a close below 1.2765, the price action suggests that USD could decline toward 1.2740. The downside risk will remain intact as long as 1.2810 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.2840 yesterday) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG analysts Lin Li and Khang Sek Lee note that July data point to weaker Chinese growth and a widening divergence between the "new" and "traditional" economy. Despite short-term production disruptions from Middle East risks and extreme weather, they highlight persistently weak demand and the need for more policy stimulus. MUFG maintains its forecast for USD/CNY to reach 6.65 by end-2026.
MUFG keeps 2026 Yuan forecast
"July data indicates a slowdown in aggregate economic momentum, with growth decline seen in IP, retail sales, FAI and main property activity indicators."
"While factors, like the renewed risk of conflict in the Middle East, and natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat, exerted some short-term negative pressure on the productions of certain sectors, overall demand remained weak, necessitating further policy stimulus."
"Government may accelerate the pace of project pipeline development and the disbursement of funds. We expect infrastructure investment to pick up from September onwards."
"We maintain the view of USD/CNY to reach 6.65 by the end of 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Singapore-focused FX research highlights robust non-oil domestic exports driven by electronics and AI-related demand, with NODX growth already above the government’s upgraded full-year forecast. The report notes broad-based technology demand across major partners and expects this to keep the Singapore Dollar supported, alongside MAS’ steeper S$NEER appreciation path and a lower USD/SGD trend since July.
AI-led exports support Singapore Dollar
"July non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose slightly less than expected but still by a firm 24.2% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 26.5%) vs 20.8% in June. Growth continued to be driven overwhelmingly by electronics, which more than offset another contraction in non-electronic shipments. Year-to-date, NODX is up 19.4%, putting growth ahead of the government's recently upgraded full-year forecast of 14-16%, from 3-5% previously."
"In contrast, non-electronic NODX contracted 2.3% yoy vs -2.8% in June, reflecting continued weakness in chemicals, particularly pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals. Pharmaceutical exports plunged 57% yoy after falling 18% in June, while petrochemical shipments contracted 23% vs 28% previously. The weakness appears more consistent with ongoing sector-specific and supply-chain pressures than the latest US tariff measures."
"The US imposed a 12.5% tariff on around one-third of Singapore's domestic exports to the US following the Section 301 investigation on 24 July. However, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, certain electronics, and energy products are currently exempt. Nonetheless, uncertainty surrounding US trade policy remains a downside risk to the broader export outlook, particularly if additional sectoral tariffs or trade restrictions are introduced."
"Looking ahead, the export outlook remains constructive as global AI infrastructure investment should continue to support electronics exports. NODX to the US surged 63% yoy in July, while shipments to China rose 38%, South Korea 53% and Japan 43%, suggesting that technology-related external demand remains geographically broad-based."
"In FX, USD/SGD fell 0.1% to 1.2780 yesterday amid a softer USD. The pair has trended lower since its July high of just under 1.3000. SGD should remain supported by strong export growth and MAS' decision to steepen the S$NEER appreciation path at both its May and July meetings. Year-to-date, SGD is up 0.6% against the USD, outperforming the average Asian currency ex-Japan of -1.9%"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, according to a Reuters poll conducted between August 13 and 18.
Nearly 90% of economists, or 56 of 64, expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% through the end of 2026, up from 83% last month. All respondents forecast no change at the central bank’s next meeting in September.
Economists largely agree that the BoE can stay patient as the inflationary impact of higher Oil prices remains modest despite inflation staying above the 2% target.
The poll also showed a narrow majority of economists expect at least one rate cut by mid-2027, even though inflation is forecast to stay above target until late next year.
Attention now turns to the UK inflation report for July, due on Wednesday. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% YoY from 2.6%, while core inflation is forecast to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- USD/JPY trades modestly higher, holding above the 159.60 area.
- The US Dollar keeps a mild safe-haven bid as Strait of Hormuz tensions simmer.
- Mixed US housing and production data do little to shift the picture.
USD/JPY holds modest gains near the 159.60s on Tuesday, edging higher on the day. The pair has clawed back ground after a recent sharp pullback and is grinding back toward the upper end of its recent range.
The US Dollar (USD) is keeping a mild bid as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep a safe-haven premium in the currency. That flow is favoring the Greenback over the Japanese Yen (JPY), keeping USD/JPY supported even as geopolitical risk runs through the headlines.
US President Donald Trump hardened the tone in a social media post, saying there are no talks or conversations scheduled with Iran and that the US naval blockade remains in full force. He also claimed the Strait of Hormuz is “open and operating” and that all water mines had been removed or detonated, comments that come as Tehran insists the waterway stays shut until Washington meets its conditions.
On the data front, the picture was mixed. US Building Permits for July jumped to 1.443 million, beating expectations, but Housing Starts slipped to 1.239 million, missing forecasts and falling from the prior month. Industrial Production rose 0.2%, just shy of the 0.3% consensus, while Pending Home Sales fell 2.3%, a smaller drop than the previous month but still in contraction.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.61, retaining a mild bullish bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.38 and a dense support band between 159.55 and 159.59. However, the advance is increasingly capped by the 100-period SMA at 159.69, with additional resistance aligned at 159.73, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.46 suggests constructive but not overextended momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA at 159.69, followed closely by the horizontal barrier at 159.73. On the downside, first support is clustered at 159.59 and 159.55, ahead of the horizontal floor at 159.43 and the 20-period SMA at 159.38, where buyers would be expected to defend the current short-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja reviews Indonesia’s 2027 State Budget, highlighting a calibrated balance between growth and fiscal discipline that matters for the Rupiah and local bonds. The budget assumes a Rupiah exchange rate of Rp17,500 per US$, a 6.0% GDP growth target and a 2.40% of GDP deficit, with financing via disciplined sovereign bond issuance.
Budget assumptions shape Rupiah outlook
"The budget targets economic growth of 6.0%, supported by strategic public investment and prudent fiscal management, with the fiscal deficit projected to narrow to 2.40% of GDP."
"Rupiah Exchange Rate Rp17,500/US$. Reflects ongoing global financial market volatility and continued strength of the U.S. dollar."
"10-Year Government Bond (SBN) Yield 6.90%. Assumes stable domestic liquidity conditions and manageable sovereign risk premiums."
"Prolonged high interest rates in advanced economies or sustained U.S. dollar strength could place additional pressure on the rupiah and increase government borrowing costs, necessitating close coordination between fiscal authorities and Bank Indonesia."
"Financing requirements will be met through a disciplined combination of domestic and international sovereign bond issuance, helping maintain market confidence and funding flexibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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