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Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a dramatic rebound, surging over 4% on Wednesday to move within striking distance of the $4,300/oz threshold. This rally is being propelled by growing optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement, which has driven crude oil prices lower and significantly tempered market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. As US Treasury yields and the Greenback ease, bullion is benefiting from a favorable combination of disinflationary energy trends, technical short-covering, and persistent central bank buying.

Institutional Analysis: ING vs. OCBC

To evaluate the primary catalysts and technical boundaries driving Gold's upward breakout, we highlight the core findings from ING and OCBC:

• Macroeconomic Drivers: ING notes that lower energy prices are reducing inflation worries, allowing markets to scale back Fed tightening bets and creating a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets. OCBC emphasizes that September Fed hike odds have fallen to roughly 55% (down from 66% a week prior), driving down real yields and the US Dollar.
• Market Mechanics: ING attributes the move to fading geopolitical risk premiums offset by dovish rate expectations and strong Chinese investment demand. OCBC highlights that clearing key overhead resistance triggered widespread short-covering and technical buying.
• Central Bank Activity: OCBC flags news that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years alongside recent gold ETF purchases, adding a sentiment boost alongside ongoing Chinese demand noted by ING.
• Key Technical Levels: OCBC identifies near-term resistance at $4,333 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $4,393 (100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)), with support levels anchored at $4,160 (50-day SMA) and $4,077 (21-day SMA).

Easing energy prices and dovish Fed shifts drive bullion breakout

Commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey at ING emphasize that the market is shifting its focus from geopolitical risk to the broader macroeconomic relief provided by lower energy prices. As optimism around US-Iran talks weakens crude oil, the disinflationary impulse is easing pressure on the Fed to maintain an aggressive stance, boosting the appeal of gold.

"The market is increasingly focusing on the disinflationary implications of lower energy prices. Expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have eased, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold. Continued investment demand from China has also helped underpin the market."

Technical buying and official-sector demand reinforce near-term momentum

Echoing this constructive view, Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong at OCBC point out that technical factors played a major role in accelerating the rally. Once prices broke above immediate resistance, short-covering took over. Coupled with novel buying signals from central banks like the Bank of Korea, near-term momentum has turned mildly bullish, though upcoming macroeconomic releases remain critical to sustaining the breakout.

"Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD... Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained."

Banks anticipate a sustained upward bias dependent on rate expectations

Based on the assessments from both institutions, the banks project a favorable near-term environment for Gold, anchored by cooling rate-hike expectations and lower Oil prices. ING expects bullion to maintain its support as long as the US Dollar stays soft and Fed policy expectations tilt dovish, even if geopolitical risk premiums continue to dissipate. Concurrently, OCBC cautions that while momentum is mildly bullish toward resistance at $4,333 and $4,393, the longevity of this breakout will ultimately hinge on whether upcoming US payrolls data supports lower Treasury yields and a weaker greenback.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman analyses United Kingdom demand prospects under Prime Minister Burnham’s shift from “securonomics” to “vibonomics”. The report argues that elevated household saving and weak confidence leave scope for a temporary consumption boost if sentiment improves. However, it stresses that lasting growth in the UK will depend on structural reforms to productivity, investment, housing, energy and real wages.

Confidence, savings and UK demand

"The upside is that it all leaves a buffer that stronger confidence could partly unlock. In hindsight it poses an awkward question for Starmer and Reeves. By repeatedly stressing security, discipline and repair, did they inadvertently reinforce the sense that households needed to remain defensive?"

"Looking ahead, we expect the saving ratio to remain at around current levels, averaging 9.4% over the next two years, as we expect continued cautiousness amidst structural uncertainty, with interest rates remaining at elevated levels. This means that we expect the build-up of yet another £150 billion in savings."

"We estimate that every one percentage point decline in the household saving ratio is equivalent to roughly 0.5% of GDP in additional demand once import leakages are taken into account. A sustained fall of around three percentage points, bringing the saving ratio back towards its pre-pandemic average, could therefore raise the level of GDP by about 1.5%. Spread over the period to the 2029 election, that could make a 1.0% growth economy temporarily look more like a 1.5% economy."

"Burnham can probably improve the mood and may even buy himself a few stronger quarters. But he cannot vibe the UK out of its consumption slump. For that, the autumn reform agenda will need to tackle the structural constraints holding back both supply and living standards."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is balancing solid long-term fiscal fundamentals against near-term growth headwinds and shifting central bank expectations. While rating agency S&P has reaffirmed Australia's pristine AAA credit rating — underpinned by low public debt and robust institutions — sluggish GDP expansion and persistent inflation present underlying risks for the domestic economy. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar (USD) and the lingering prospect of a November Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike have provided the currency cross with a steady upward trajectory.

Institutional Breakdown: BNY vs. Rabobank

To compare how key market analysts view the drivers shaping the Aussie Dollar, we highlight the core perspectives from BNY and Rabobank:

• Sovereign Credit & Fiscal Profile: BNY emphasizes S&P's affirmation of Australia's AAA rating with a stable outlook, supported by modest public debt, a projected deficit of 1.6% of GDP over two years, and net debt stabilizing near 28% by fiscal 2029.
• Domestic Macro Headwinds: BNY notes that economic growth is easing to 1.5% in fiscal 2027, alongside weak productivity and persistent above-target inflation, with per capita GDP falling in ten of the last 15 quarters.
• RBA Rate Hike Potential: Rabobank views the RBA's upcoming August 11 meeting as a key catalyst, maintaining that strong labor data leaves room for one final rate hike in November.
• AUD/USD Price Targets: Rabobank has upgraded its 3-month AUD/USD forecast to 0.71 (up from 0.70), maintaining a modest upside bias out to 12 months driven primarily by broader US Dollar softening.

AAA rating affirmation provides structural backstop against economic drag

Geoff Yu at BNY reports that S&P's stable AAA rating affirmation reflects Australia's wealthy economy, credible monetary policy, and resilient policy frameworks. However, the rating agency's report highlights significant economic friction under the surface. Higher interest rates continue to weigh on domestic demand, with real GDP growth projected to slow to 1.5% in fiscal 2027. Combined with weak productivity and shrinking per capita output, these factors act as a persistent counterweight to fundamental currency appreciation.

"The agency expects the general government deficit to remain around 1.6% of GDP over the next two years, while net debt stabilizes near 28% of GDP by fiscal 2029... Inflation remains above target, productivity is weak and per capita GDP has declined in ten of the past 15 quarters."

Shifting RBA expectations and USD weakness lift AUD/USD target to 0.71

Taking a tactical trading view, Jane Foley at Rabobank points out that AUD/USD has maintained a gentle upward trend since July, placing the Aussie in the middle of the G10 performance pack. While recent trade balance data underscored structural trade strength, Foley asserts that near-term price action will be driven by RBA policy guidance. With market expectations over Fed rate hikes seen as overextended, Rabobank foresees further modest gains for the currency pair.

"In Rabo’s view there is still risk of one more rate hike this year in November. The market will be hoping that the RBA’s August 11 policy meeting will provide more clarity on rate hike risks... We have raised our 3-month forecast to AUD/USD 0.71 from 0.70."

Based on the joint analysis of both institutions, the banks project a moderately positive trajectory for the Australian Dollar, led by external USD dynamics rather than aggressive domestic growth. BNY notes that while fiscal metrics remain among the strongest in the G10, softer per capita growth and weak productivity will temper rapid upside momentum. Conversely, Rabobank expects AUD/USD to climb toward 0.71 over a 3-month horizon, buoyed by broader US Dollar weakness and the lingering possibility of an RBA rate increase before the end of the year.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD retains a mildly bullish bias while holding above the 50-day SMA.
• RSI and MACD indicators show that buyers still hold the upper hand.
• The 100-day and 200-day SMAs cap the upside ahead of the 1.1700 barrier.

EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies. Still, the near-term technical picture remains bullish following the late-July rebound from below 1.1400. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1534, down 0.15% on the day.

Traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations and drive volatility in EUR/USD.

Analysts at Scotiabank note that “fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads,” with spot now trading close to their fair-value estimates. However, they caution that “further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness.”

From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the setup as “bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s,” but still expects consolidation, stating that “we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600.”

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1474. However, topside progress is already challenged by the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, which cap the advance for now.

Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades above its short-term trend support.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1474, ahead of a more significant horizontal floor near 1.1350. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, while a stronger barrier awaits at the horizontal level of 1.1700.

A daily close above the 100-day SMA would open the way toward the 1.1629-1.1700 band, whereas a loss of the 1.1474 support area would suggest that the current bullish bias is starting to erode.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but modestly outperforming other majors, trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.40. With CAD-specific news limited, USD/CAD remains driven by external factors and stabilized US/Canada spreads. Technicals stay USD-bearish, with downside focus on a break below 1.3970/80 and fading rallies toward 1.41.

CAD trades near fair value versus Dollar

"The CAD is effectively flat against the USD and outperforming most of the major currencies modestly on the day as a result."

"CAD-specific news remains scant and the trend in funds remains largely contingent on external developments. US/Canada spreads have stabilized and broader risk appetite remains positive—while the tech/AI cycle holds."

"The trend in relative US/Canada data surprises has turned a little more positive for the CAD in recent weeks. Trade concerns remain a background niggle ahead of the August 19 deadline for President Trump’s latest tariff salvo."

"Our fair value estimate for spot sits just above 1.40 this morning (1.4006), suggesting that the CAD is more or less right where it should be. "

"Bearish—There is little change in the CAD’s technical position. Broader chart pointers continue to lean USD-bearish after the negative technical close on the week through last Friday."

"The CAD still needs to secure a break under 1.3970/80 (former high/retracement support) to drive the next phase of gains, however. Technicals suggest fading moderate USD gains to the 1.41 zone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Copper prices trading above $14,000/t on the LME and near record levels on Comex, driven by metal diversion into the US ahead of potential tariff decisions. Tight physical markets, low inventories outside the US and ongoing supply-side challenges are seen as supporting prices and possibly increasing volatility in coming sessions.

Record-level prices on supply constraints

"In base metals, copper prices also extended gains, with LME copper trading above $14,000/t and Comex futures remaining close to record levels. The market continues to be driven by the diversion of metal into the US ahead of potential tariff decisions. This is leaving availability tighter elsewhere and supporting prices across global exchanges."

"Improving sentiment around the Middle East provided a boost to industrial metals. Hopes for progress in negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have weighed on the US dollar. Lower energy prices have reduced inflation concerns and improved the outlook for global growth-sensitive assets."

"Copper fundamentals remain supportive. Tight physical markets, low inventories outside the US and ongoing supply-side challenges should keep prices well supported. Developments in US tariff policy could also trigger increased volatility in the near term."

"Aluminium and zinc also moved higher alongside copper."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• The New Zealand Dollar extends its decline for a second consecutive day as the US Dollar strengthens.
• Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support demand for safe-haven assets despite mixed US economic data.
• Softer New Zealand employment figures reinforce expectations that the central bank will tighten policy only gradually.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) emerges, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon has reignited risk aversion, although reports that Iran and Oman are finalizing an agreement on a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz have helped ease concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy supplies.

The US Dollar is benefiting from this defensive positioning despite another round of mixed US economic data. Initial Jobless Claims edged up to 199K last week from a revised 198K previously, but came in below market expectations of 202K. The release follows Wednesday's weaker ADP employment report. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a clearer assessment of US labor market conditions.

Markets continue to scale back expectations for another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September has fallen to 56.9% from 63.4% a week ago, as traders increasingly believe that the gradual cooling in the labor market could encourage the central bank to adopt a more cautious approach.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weighed down by weaker-than-expected employment data. The report reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue to tighten monetary policy at a gradual pace, although markets still fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting. Policymakers recently indicated that further tightening may still be required to bring inflation fully under control.

NZD softens as labor slack persists but RBNZ tightening bias holds

Strategists at BBH note that “NZD and NZ yields slump” in the wake of New Zealand’s latest labour market data, arguing that “solid Q2 job and wage growth mask ongoing labor market slack.” They highlight that employment “surged 0.5% q/q vs. 0.1% in Q1, well above consensus and RBNZ projection of 0.1%,” while “private regular wages were up 0.7% q/q (consensus & RBNZ: 0.6%) vs. 0.5% in Q1.” However, BBH stress that “strong hiring was more than offset by rising labor supply,” with the participation rate “rose 0.2ppt to 70.7%,” which “lifting unemployment and pointing to excess labor supply.” In their view, the labour market slack is underscored by the fact that “the unemployment rate rose 0.2ppt to 5.6% (consensus & RBNZ: 5.4%), the highest since Q3 2015 and the underutilization rate increased 0.9ppt to 13.8%, the highest since December 2013.”

Despite the softer currency and higher jobless rate, BBH argue that “NZD has room to keep edging higher against most major currencies,” citing “above target inflation, more favorable domestic growth outlook, and a policy rate near the lower-end of the RBNZ’s neutral range (2.20%-4.10%)” as factors that “argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes.” They note that “the swaps curve price in nearly 100bps of cumulative tightening over the next twelve months to 3.50%.” TD Securities concur that policy tightening remains on the table, stating that “despite the mixed report today, we believe the RBNZ has the room to hike again by 25bps in September given that economic activity continues to recover in Q3.”

• Gold pauses after reaching a seven-week high as traders monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Markets lower expectations of a September Fed rate hike ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
• Momentum indicators turn bullish as XAU/USD reclaims the 50-day SMA.

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates gains on Thursday after briefly climbing above $4,300 as the US Dollar (USD) steadies while traders await confirmation of a possible Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,269, up 0.52% on the day.

The precious metal rallied a little over 4% on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in seven weeks after Iran said it had reached an understanding with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait. Tehran added that a joint statement containing the main points of the agreement was in the final stages of drafting.

Oil prices stay under pressure, creating a supportive backdrop for Bullion. A sustained decline in energy prices would ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs generally weigh on Gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Despite the recent decline, Oil prices still carry a significant geopolitical risk premium as tensions in the Middle East persist. Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman would establish only a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the Strait. Yemen’s Houthis also claim to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers, while Tehran denies holding talks with the United States, saying its discussions with Oman are strictly bilateral.

Still, lower energy prices and softer US labour-market data, including weaker ADP employment and JOLTS figures, have prompted traders to reduce bets on a September Fed rate hike. Initial Jobless Claims, however, rose only slightly to 199K from 198K and came in below the 202K forecast.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 56.9% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September, down from 63.4% a week earlier.

Attention now turns to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)." Analysts highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer after a strong start to the year," and they anticipate that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains."

Technical analysis: Buyers regain control above 50-day SMA, $4,300 in focus

XAU/USD is recovering above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,157, but remains capped beneath the 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader tone neutral with a slight topside constraint.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 on the daily chart leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above the signal and an expanding positive histogram, which together suggest improving upside pressure despite the overhead moving-average barrier.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level around $4,300, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,393, with the 200-day SMA at $4,493 acting as a more distant cap.

On the downside, immediate support is provided by the reclaimed 50-day SMA near $4,157, with a deeper structural floor at the prior horizontal support around $4,000, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a pullback develops.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Oil prices have stabilized near $80 as markets digest Iran’s proposed shipping route with Oman through the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary arrangement has reduced perceived disruption risk for Brent and WTI, helped by larger U.S. inventories. Yet traders remain cautious given ongoing shipping incidents and unresolved United States (US) backing for any deal.

Hormuz corridor tempers risk premium

"Oil prices have steadied at close to $80/barrel as traders digested Iran’s claim that it had reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz."

"The possible route, which officials said could operate for two to four months, supported hopes that some energy flows may resume, even though it would not amount to a full reopening and U.S. backing remains unclear."

"Brent fell as markets priced in a lower probability of a prolonged disruption, but traders remain cautious given continued shipping risks, including reported explosions near Oman and Houthi threats against tankers."

"Larger U.S. crude inventories and improved stocks at Cushing also eased pressure, while fresh disruption at a Black Sea export terminal kept supply risks in view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• AUD/USD edges lower as the US Dollar steadies following two consecutive days of losses.
• Markets trim Fed rate-hike bets as lower energy prices ease inflation concerns.
• China’s trade figures could influence the Australian Dollar ahead of next week’s RBA meeting.

AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following two consecutive days of losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7036, down roughly 0.32% on the day.

US labour-market data released on Thursday offered some support to the Greenback. Initial Jobless Claims rose only slightly to 199K from 198K and came in below expectations of 202K.

Meanwhile, attention stays on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are close to finalizing an agreement that would establish a temporary shipping route through the waterway. The prospect of an agreement has improved near-term market sentiment, but the broader backdrop remains fragile, keeping some defensive demand for the US Dollar alive.

Tehran denies holding direct talks with the United States, even as Washington says negotiations are taking place. Traders are also waiting for formal confirmation of the Iran-Oman agreement and more details on whether it would lead to a full reopening of the Strait.

Oil prices trade modestly higher on Thursday, although their recent decline has eased energy-driven inflation concerns and reduced pressure on major central banks to raise interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 56% chance of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, down from 63% a week earlier.

Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be closely watched as it could influence Fed rate expectations.

On the Australian side, China’s Trade Balance data is also in focus. The Australian Dollar is sensitive to developments in the Chinese economy because of the close trading relationship between the two countries.

Attention will then shift to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest-rate decision next week. Analysts at Standard Chartered expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to "keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting," noting that "Q2 trimmed mean inflation held steady at 0.8% q/q – as we had expected – and below the RBA’s prior forecast (0.9%)." They add that this outcome, "together with the recent retracement in oil prices, should take the pressure off the RBA to tighten policy further in the near term."