Forex News
- WTI shot to a seven-month peak on Monday amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- The recent rebound from the 100-period SMA on H4 and a break above $69.00 favor bullish traders.
- A slightly overbought RSI warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices trim a part of strong intraday gains to levels beyond the $73.00 mark, or the highest since June 2025, touched this Monday in reaction to a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The black liquid currently trades around the $71.00 mark, still up over 5.50% for the day.
The near-term bias turns bullish following the recent rebound from the rising 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout above the $69.00 mark. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above its signal and above the zero line, with a widening positive histogram, which reinforces the strengthening bullish tone.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.94 approaches overbought territory, showing strong upside momentum after breaking above the 60 area. Immediate resistance emerges at the recent spike high around $71.80, where the latest rally stalled, and intraday overbought readings intensified. A clear break above this level would open the door to further gains toward the mid-$70s, while failure here would encourage a corrective phase.
On the flip side, initial support now stands at the psychological $70.00 handle, followed by yesterday’s open near $70.50 acting as an intermediate floor on pullbacks. Below that, stronger support aligns toward $67.00, where the prior consolidation area sits well above the 100-period SMA, preserving the broader upward bias as long as it holds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, said the country will not negotiate with the United States in response to reports that he reached out to Washington via Oman mediators, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said the US sank nine Iranian naval vessels and that the bombardment will continue. He added that he is open to lifting sanctions if Iran’s new leader is pragmatic.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Gold opens with a bullish gap as escalating Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven assets.
- The XAU/USD bulls now await more developments before positioning for any further gains.
- A modest USD pullback and Fed rate cut bets might continue to support the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) stabilizes around the $5,350 area following some volatility during the Asian session and remains well within striking distance of the highest level since late January, touched earlier this Monday.
A dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in West Asia over the weekend unsettles global markets. In fact, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military strike on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Adding to this, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced the closure of a critical maritime chokepoint – the Strait of Hormuz – and raised the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East. This, in turn, provides a strong boost to the traditional safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week.
As the opening volatility subsides, the XAU/USD bulls opt to take some profits off the table and await more developments before placing fresh bets. In the meantime, a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the highest level since January 23, along with bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), might continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. This, in turn, warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the precious metal and before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline.
Traders this week will confront important US macro releases, scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. This will be followed by the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments, which will have a significant impact on the global risk sentiment and play a key role in driving demand for the safe-haven Gold.
Gold needs to find acceptance above $5,400 to back the case for further gains
Against the backdrop of last week's breakout above the $5,200 horizontal barrier, the strong move up on Monday favors the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above its signal in positive territory, with the histogram expanding, which supports building bullish momentum after the latest leg higher.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index at 68.88 hovers just below overbought territory, showing firm but not extreme upside pressure. Initial support emerges near $5,260, where the latest consolidation area begins, followed by a deeper floor around $5,210, guarding the prior congestion band. A break below $5,210 would expose $5,180 as the next downside level.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the recent spike high around $5,390. A sustained push above $5,390 would open the way for an extension of the uptrend, while a failure to clear this barrier would keep XAU/USD vulnerable to a corrective pullback toward the cited supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- The Indian Rupee falls sharply to near 91.75 against the US Dollar amid the US-Iran war.
- Middle East tensions have spiked the oil prices and triggered risk-off market sentiment.
- India’s Q4 GDP registers a strong 7.8% growth against estimates of 7.2%.
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising 0.25% to near 91.75 amid sour market sentiment and surging oil prices due to a brutal war between the United States (US) and Iran.
S&P 500 futures trade sharply lower, and Asian stock markets plunge in the Asian trade on Monday, demonstrating a risk-off market sentiment.
The oil prices soar following reports of two attacks on tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran war. WTI futures on the NYMEX are up over 4% to near $70, the highest level seen in over seven months. Currencies from countries like India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs remain highly sensitive to changes in the oil prices.
Over the weekend, Israel and the US military launched a series of strikes against Iran in which their 48 leaders, including top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed, according to Fox News.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases across the Middle East and several West Asian countries.
Meanwhile, Tehran has announced Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as its interim leader after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On the domestic front, India’s Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has surprised markets after registering a 7.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) growth, faster than estimates of 7.2%, but slower than 8.2% in the third quarter of 2025.
After strong Q4 numbers, India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has revised GDP growth for the entire Financial Year (FY) 2026-27 to 7%-7.4% from the 6.8%-7.2% projected last month.
During the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 97.85 amid a risk-off mood. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR rises to near 91.75
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USD/INR jumps to near 91.75 in the opening trade on Monday, the highest level seen in a month. The pair demonstrates a mild bullish bias as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is starting to edge higher again after a period of consolidation.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps vertically to 65.00 after consolidating in the 40.00-60.00 range for a month, hinting at the onset of a fresh bullish momentum.
As long as the pair stays above the 20-day EMA, the odds remain high that it could revisit the all-time high of 92.50. On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 91.05 forms first support, with a deeper pullback exposing the late-February trough at 90.60. A daily close below 90.60 would negate the current bullish bias and shift focus toward the 90.25 zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- Silver price loses momentum to around $93.75 in Monday’s early European session.
- The constructive outlook of Silver remains intact, with the price holding above the 100-day EMA.
- The initial support level is located at $82.00; immediate resistance emerges at $97.00.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near $93.75 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by a renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation provides some support to the Greenback and undermines the USD-denominated commodity price.
Nonetheless, the potential downside for the white metal might be limited, as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that combat operations will continue in Iran until America’s objectives are met.
(This story was corrected on March 2 at 06:55 GMT to say that the potential downside for the white metal might be limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand, not upside).
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average near $72.0, preserving the broader uptrend despite recent volatility.
Daily candles remain in the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, and the middle band around $82.0 acts as dynamic trend support after the sharp pullback from the highs. RSI around 59 stays above its midline and turns higher, indicating renewed buying interest rather than exhaustion at current levels.
Immediate resistance emerges at the recent swing high near $97.00. A clear break above this area would open the way toward the psychological $100.00 region. On the downside, initial support stands at the mid-Bollinger band and prior congestion around $82.00, with a deeper floor at the rising 100-day EMA near $72.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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