Forex News
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran submitted his resignation letter from the Fed board on Thursday, effective on or shortly before Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the Fed's next chair, since there is no other open seat on the seven-member board for Warsh to fill, and Miran's term had expired in January.
Miran was appointed by US President Donald Trump to serve out the remaining five months of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's term as a temporary appointment ahead of his Fed chair nomination. With Warsh now confirmed as the next Fed chair, Miran is stepping down.
In a letter to President Trump released by the Fed, Miran recounted the arguments he made in favor of lower interest rates, familiar from his many public appearances and the dissents he registered at every Fed policy meeting, Reuters reported.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.91% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.49% | 0.32% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | 0.59% | -0.13% | -0.18% | 0.15% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.91% | -0.59% | -0.68% | -0.77% | -0.42% | -0.60% | -0.69% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.13% | 0.68% | -0.09% | 0.28% | 0.10% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.18% | 0.77% | 0.09% | 0.38% | 0.17% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.15% | 0.42% | -0.28% | -0.38% | -0.17% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | 0.02% | 0.60% | -0.10% | -0.17% | 0.17% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.13% | 0.69% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.25% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and team revise their Fed outlook, now projecting no rate cuts in 2026 as persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict, elevated Oil and strained supply chains delay disinflation. They still anticipate policy easing in 2027 back toward a 3% neutral rate, but warn the FOMC’s bar for cuts is rising and hawkish risks remain.
No cuts as inflation risks linger
"We are revising our Fed call and no longer expect rate cuts in 2026. With the Iran conflict in a stalemate, oil prices still high, and supply chains stressed, we no longer see inflation progress as feasible this year. Additional easing in 2027 is still our base case once impacts from Iran subside."
"We no longer look for rate cuts this year, as the inflation calculus will turn more problematic over the next few months. We remain optimistic regarding policy easing in 2027 (75bps starting in March), as we continue to expect the Fed to eventually bring policy back to our estimate of neutral at 3%. However, we cannot discard the possibility of the Fed staying on hold for even longer with numerous risks threatening the inflation outlook."
"Absent an unexpected deterioration in the labor market or an outside shock that rapidly tightens financial conditions, the Fed will not ease policy this year. The June FOMC meeting is increasingly becoming the likely platform for the Committee to signal its change in guidance. We expect this to be the case despite Kevin Warsh entering as Fed Chair."
"Likewise for the dot plot. We now expect the median Fed official won't pencil in rate cuts for 2026. Also, as noted before, we would not be surprised to see a few participants projecting hikes in 2027."
"The potential for the materialization of downside growth risks is a key reason why we see a rate cut as the more likely next move for the Fed vs a hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbs to a two-week high as traders raise bets on a Fed rate hike following strong US economic data.
- Markets remain focused on stalled US-Iran peace talks and the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing for fresh geopolitical signals.
- Technically, the DXY maintains a mildly bullish tone above the 200-day SMA, while momentum indicators improve.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, climbs to a two-week high on Thursday as traders ramp up expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep interest rates elevated for longer following a fresh batch of strong US economic data. At the time of writing, the index is trading around 98.83, extending gains for a third consecutive day.
US Retail Sales rose 0.5% month-over-month in April, matching market expectations but slowing from the 1.6% increase recorded in March. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Control Group, which feeds directly into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations, also rose 0.5% after increasing 0.8% in the previous month.
Earlier this week, stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data pushed inflation further away from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, increasing pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. Traders have increased bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by year-end, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a roughly 42% probability of a hike at the December meeting, up from around 33% a day earlier.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Thursday that the US economy is “less vulnerable” to global Oil disruptions than in the past, though high Oil prices still “drain household spending power” and “raise business costs.” Schmid added that the US economy has shown “remarkable resilience” and that economic fundamentals remain sound.
Geopolitical uncertainty is also supporting the US Dollar. Investors remain focused on the US-Iran peace talks, which remain stalled, alongside the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Trump said on Thursday that Xi Jinping offered to help on Iran and supports reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global Oil shipments pass.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 98.83. The near-term tone is mildly constructive as price holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 98.53, but remains capped just below the 50-day SMA at 98.99, keeping the broader range intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.15 has recovered from earlier levels near 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram turns slightly positive, hinting that bullish pressure is rebuilding, albeit under nearby trend resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50-day SMA clustered around 98.99, with a subsequent barrier at the horizontal level near 99.50, and a more significant cap at 100.50 if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-day SMA at 98.53, ahead of stronger structural demand at 97.50, where a break would expose a deeper corrective phase within the broader consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Rabobank's Global Strategist Michael Every outlines China’s central role in current geopolitical and financial dynamics. Every covers Trump’s visit to Beijing and potential outcomes from US-China talks, questions over a possible Grand Bargain, and China’s leverage over Iran. It also notes Euroclear’s consideration of China onshore bonds and Beijing’s efforts to promote yuan internationalisation.
US-China talks and yuan strategy
"In Eastenders, Trump, with a billionaire CEO entourage, is meeting Xi after posting in Air Force One that he will be asking him “to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level!”"
"Indeed, as some talk of UK Labour going back to the 1970s, the US language is also of Nixon–Mao 2.0, albeit from a very different starting point."
"Everybody gets how important these talks are, but few consider the full US *and* Chinese contexts, and many takes are coloured by what they think of Trump."
"We will have to wait and see if we get a Grand Bargain that reshapes geopolitics and geoeconomics – and, yes, imbalances; smaller agreement on tariffs, tech (as the Netherlands protests a US proposal to further bar chip giant ASML from the China market), and even Taiwan; a de minimis Farce Two Trade Deal can-kicking exercise, or a Great Escalation."
"On which note, some media suggest China might be prepared to put pressure on Tehran, yet the New York Times reports that Chinese firms are plotting arms sales to it."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Bank of England (BoE) MPC member, Huw Pill, said that he does not expect second-round effects to be as strong as in 2022, and also that the second-round effects are behavioral, affected by what the BoE does next. He spoke at an event hosted by NatWest on Thursday.
Key quotes:
We must not allow ourselves to drift off into deep space of unmoored inflation dynamics.
I do not expect 2nd round effects to be as strong as in 2022.
Labour market weakness means second round effects likely to be weaker than in 2022.
Latest GDP data shows some robustness.
Not clear labour market is as loose as when there were oil price spikes in 2008 or 2011.
Tighter financial conditions do not get BoE out of question of whether to raise rates itself.
Prompt but modest increase in rates advantageous.
Second-round effects are behavioural, affected by what BoE does.
If you wait until market forces you to move, that would be more challenging to BoE.
Cannot say now if rate rise would only be temporary or a plateau for rates.
Fiscal and global situation are influencing long-term market rates as well as inflation outlook.”
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- USD/CAD trades near one-month highs, while the US Dollar Index advances to its strongest level in two weeks.
- Stronger US inflation and Retail Sales data boost expectations for a possible Fed rate hike by year-end.
- Higher Crude Oil prices linked to Middle East supply concerns are helping support the Canadian Dollar, limiting broader gains in USD/CAD.
USD/CAD extends gains on Thursday, rising for a third consecutive day, supported by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) as traders assess ongoing geopolitical developments alongside the latest US economic data, which reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
At the time of writing, the pair is up 0.12% on the day, trading around 1.3723, close to one-month highs. However, elevated Oil prices linked to supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to provide underlying support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), limiting stronger upside moves in USD/CAD.
Investors are closely monitoring the two-day summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both leaders discussed trade, increasing bilateral investment and the ongoing Iran war. Trump told Fox News earlier on Thursday that Xi Jinping offered to help on Iran and said he wants to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
Meanwhile, US-Iran peace talks remain deadlocked, with no near-term breakthrough in sight as both sides continue to disagree over Tehran’s nuclear program.
On the data front, US Retail Sales rose 0.5% MoM in April, matching market expectations but slowing sharply from March’s 1.6% increase. The Retail Sales Control Group, which feeds directly into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations, also increased 0.5% in April after rising 0.8% previously.
The data follows hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports earlier this week, which showed inflation accelerated sharply in April, largely driven by higher energy prices.
Traders have dialed up bets that the Fed could deliver an interest rate hike by year-end following the latest batch of US economic data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 42% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, up from around 33% a day earlier.
Growing expectations of a more hawkish Fed have pushed US Treasury yields sharply higher in recent days while also boosting demand for the US Dollar. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are providing additional support to the Greenback through safe-haven flows.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.78, its highest level in two weeks.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.29% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | 0.44% | -0.13% | -0.16% | 0.15% | -0.01% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.74% | -0.44% | -0.57% | -0.61% | -0.27% | -0.45% | -0.56% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.13% | 0.57% | -0.08% | 0.28% | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.16% | 0.61% | 0.08% | 0.37% | 0.16% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.15% | 0.27% | -0.28% | -0.37% | -0.18% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | 0.01% | 0.45% | -0.09% | -0.16% | 0.18% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.56% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.27% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- US Retail Sales beat yearly forecasts, boosting US Dollar momentum.
- Jobless claims rise, but Fed officials emphasize inflation risks.
- Eurozone inflation data remains secondary as DXY hits highs.
EUR/USD edges lower for the third consecutive day on Thursday during the North American session, down 0.22%, as US economic data showed consumers' resilience. In contrast, labor market data showed a slight increase in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits. The pair trades at 1.1679 after reaching a high of 1.1721.
EUR/USD weakens as sticky inflation keeps Fed cut bets sidelined
US Retail Sales rose in April by 0.5% MoM, aligned with estimates and below March’s print of 1.6%. Sales increased 4.9% YoY in the same period, exceeding estimates of 3.3% growth. Other data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 9 rose by 211K, above forecasts of 205K.
Household spending is notable due to the jump in energy prices, with receipts at gasoline stations rising 2.8%, after surging 13.7% in March. Data from the US EIA revealed that gasoline prices rose by 12.3% last month.
On the headline, the Greenback extended its gains according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.33% at 98.77, refreshing ten-day highs. Consequently, the Euro (EUR) dropped and is poised to extend its losses as Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid stated that “inflation is the most pressing risk to the US economy.”
Schmid added that the economy “has shown remarkable resilience” and that the job market is “functioning effectively.”
His comments come after the latest consumer and producer price data, which reaffirmed that inflation remains sticky and stubbornly higher, clearly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
The money markets' view on interest rates suggests there is no chance of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Across the pond, inflation in Spain came as expected at 3.2% YoY in April, down from March’s 3.4%.
Ahead of the Eurozone economic schedule, inflation in Italy will be featured. In the US, traders would digest the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1676, holding just under the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.1647, which now sit slightly below price and suggest only a modest underlying cushion within a broader capped setup. The Relative Strength Index (14) near 46 points to waning bullish momentum, while the confluence of the prior downward resistance trend line and the broken rising support line above current levels hints that rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the former rising trend-line area around 1.1759, followed by the downward resistance line region near 1.1796, where recent advances previously stalled. With no clearly defined structural floors below spot in this dataset, a sustained break under the nearby SMA cluster around 1.1647 would expose the pair to deeper losses, leaving EUR/USD reliant on fresh demand emerging at lower, as yet undefined, levels to arrest any further downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.61% | 0.57% | 0.92% | 0.33% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.66% | |
| EUR | -0.61% | -0.05% | 0.39% | -0.29% | -0.65% | -0.38% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.57% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.62% | -0.32% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.92% | -0.39% | 0.06% | -0.66% | -0.98% | -0.66% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.33% | 0.29% | 0.26% | 0.66% | -0.26% | 0.00% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | 0.04% | 0.65% | 0.62% | 0.98% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.38% | 0.32% | 0.66% | -0.00% | -0.31% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | -0.66% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.24% | -0.32% | -0.70% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- DJIA futures pushed back above 50,000 in the overnight and premarket sessions on Thursday, recouping Wednesday's modest cash-index loss.
- April Retail Sales matched expectations at 0.5%, while the Control Group reading beat at 0.5% versus 0.4% consensus.
- Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 211K, above the 205K consensus and the prior week's 199K print.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures traded above 50,000 in the overnight and premarket sessions on Thursday, more than reversing the modest pullback in the cash index on Wednesday. The recovery came as traders digested a mixed batch of US data and looked ahead to a packed lineup of Fed speakers, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both sitting on record closes from Wednesday's session.
Overnight tone steadies after Wednesday's PPI shock
DJIA futures opened the overnight session on a constructive footing despite Wednesday's mild cash close, where the index slipped around 0.1% as financials and home improvement names dragged. The Asian and European sessions traded with a narrow upside bias, helped by a softer US Dollar and a small pullback in crude prices into Thursday morning. Treasury yields, which had pushed to fresh 2026 highs after Wednesday's hot Producer Price Index (PPI) print, stabilized just below the recent peaks. Headline PPI surged 1.4% MoM in April and 6% YoY, the steepest annual increase since December 2022, layering onto Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3.8% YoY, the hottest since May 2023.
Retail sales hold up as consumer absorbs higher gas prices
April Retail Sales matched expectations at 0.5% MoM, marking a third straight monthly gain, though the headline slowed sharply from the upwardly revised 1.6% in March. The Retail Sales Control Group, which feeds directly into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations, rose 0.5% versus 0.4% consensus. Retail Sales ex-Autos beat at 0.7% against 0.6% expected. The print carried its usual asterisk that nominal sales reflect higher prices rather than higher volumes, with gasoline station receipts again a meaningful contributor to the increase. On a YoY basis, headline sales rose 4.9%, suggesting the US consumer is still spending through the inflation pipeline driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Jobless claims tick up but labor market signals remain tight
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 211K for the week ending May 9, above the 205K consensus and the prior week's 199K (revised from 200K). Continuing Jobless Claims edged up 24K to 1.782 million, while the four-week moving average climbed only marginally to 203.75K. Despite the uptick, claims remain well below year-ago averages and consistent with a tight labor market by historical standards. The reading does not materially shift the Fed calculus, especially against the backdrop of accelerating price pressures earlier in the week.
Fed speaker slate in focus as 2026 cut bets evaporate
The data tape gives way to a string of Federal Reserve (Fed) appearances with the potential to extend the recent move higher in Treasury yields. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid is scheduled at 14:15 GMT and carries a clear hawkish bias, having dissented at the December meeting in favor of holding rates rather than cutting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack follows at 17:00 GMT, with New York Fed President John Williams at 21:45 GMT and Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr at 23:00 GMT. Per the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price essentially zero probability of a rate cut at the June 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and through year-end, a sharp reversal from earlier in 2026. Bank of America and JPMorgan have pushed first-cut forecasts into 2027.
Setup for Friday and the Warsh handover
Friday's data slate includes the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (consensus 7.5 versus 11 prior) and Industrial Production (consensus 0.3% MoM versus a revised -0.5% prior reading). Neither is typically a major market mover, but both are worth tracking given the manufacturing complex's sensitivity to higher input costs from the energy spike. The bigger calendar item is the formal Fed handover, with Kevin Warsh set to take over as Chair from Jerome Powell on Friday. Warsh's hawkish lean on inflation, the unresolved US-Iran conflict that continues to keep crude near three-figure levels, and the hot CPI and PPI prints earlier this week leave the path of least resistance for yields skewed higher. The bar for any DJIA futures breakout above the 50,000 area runs through the tone Schmid sets later in the session.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- USD/CHF trades around 0.7830 on Thursday, up 0.15% on the day.
- US Retail Sales and inflation data reinforce the resilience of the US economy.
- Comments from policymakers support the view that restrictive monetary policy could remain in place for longer.
USD/CHF advances toward 0.7830 on Thursday, gaining 0.15% on the day at the time of writing, supported by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) following a series of solid economic releases in the United States (US). The Greenback's rebound comes as markets reassess monetary policy expectations and scale back bets on an early easing cycle from the US central bank.
Support for the US Dollar strengthened after US Retail Sales rose by 0.5% in April, in line with market expectations. Although growth slowed from the 1.6% increase recorded in March, the figures continue to highlight the resilience of consumer spending despite elevated borrowing costs. This trend reinforces the view that US economic activity remains on solid footing.
Recent inflation data also supports that outlook. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed producer prices increased by 1.4% MoM in April, while annual producer inflation accelerated to 6%, reaching its highest level in more than three years. These figures pushed US Treasury yields higher on Wednesday before easing slightly on Thursday, while also providing support to the USD across the market.
This combination of resilient economic data has led investors to revise expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets are now reducing expectations for future rate cuts and increasingly pricing in the possibility that rates could remain elevated for a longer period, with some even considering the risk of additional tightening later this year.
On the geopolitical front, a White House official said the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was 4viewed positively. Discussions reportedly focused on strengthening economic cooperation between the world's two largest economies, including broader access for US businesses to Chinese markets and a potential increase in Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.
Comments from Fed officials also continue to support the US Dollar. Fed Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday that persistent inflation remains the biggest risk to the economy. He added that the US economy remains resilient and that the labor market continues to function effectively, although elevated energy prices continue to weigh on households and businesses.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.35% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.49% | 0.26% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.17% | -0.16% | 0.14% | -0.07% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.19% | 0.13% | -0.10% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | 0.17% | 0.21% | -0.02% | 0.33% | 0.09% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.33% | -0.36% | -0.22% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.22% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.29% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- AUD/USD weakens after decent US Retail Sales reinforce confidence in the US economy.
- Hot US PPI data and high Treasury yields support expectations for higher Fed rates.
- Trump and Xi discussed stronger economic cooperation and increased trade access.
The AUD/USD pair weakens toward the 0.7220 region on Thursday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens after April Retail Sales held up in the United States (US).
Support for the USD emerged after US Retail Sales rose 0.5% in April, meeting market expectations and highlighting the continued resilience of consumer spending despite elevated borrowing costs. The retail data, which dropped from 1.6% in March, reinforces confidence in the underlying strength of the US economy and further supports expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer.
The latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed producer inflation surged 1.4% MoM in April, while annual PPI accelerated to 6.0%, marking the strongest increase in more than three years. The hotter inflation figures pushed US Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, although they are somewhat declining on Thursday, and boosted the Greenback across the board as traders scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts and increasingly priced in the possibility of additional tightening later this year.
According to a White House official, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was described as “good,” with both leaders discussing ways to enhance economic cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. The two sides reportedly explored expanding market access for American businesses into China, increasing Chinese investment, and boosting Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7223, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it slips below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7241 while holding above the 100-period SMA at 0.7197. The pair is pivoting around the horizontal level at 0.7223, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 suggests fading momentum, hinting that sellers retain the upper hand while buying interest emerges on dips.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered near 0.7239 and the 20-period SMA at 0.7241, with a further cap at the horizontal barrier around 0.7243. On the downside, initial support sits at the 0.7223 pivot, followed by the horizontal floor at 0.7220, while the 100-period SMA around 0.7197 offers a deeper layer of demand if downside pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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