Forex News
Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Vincent Stamer notes Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% in March, driven entirely by higher energy prices linked to the Iran War, while core inflation slipped to 2.3%. He argues the outcome matches the ECB’s mild scenario, implying at most one further rate hike as higher energy and fertilizer costs gradually lift core and food inflation over 2026.
Energy-driven spike but limited ECB response
"Despite the surge in energy prices, the actual inflation rates in March are most consistent with the ECB’s mildest scenario. This suggests that the ECB is unlikely to raise its key interest rates multiple times, as the market expects."
"Over the course of the year, however, the core rate will also rise due to higher energy prices – even if active hostilities cease in the next two months and the oil price begins to fall again. This is because the current rise in energy and fertilizer prices will feed through to the other main components of inflation with a certain lag. Thus, by the fourth quarter of this year at the latest, higher energy prices are likely to offset the slower rise in labor costs and cause the core rate to rise again."
"Two weeks ago, the ECB published its own scenarios for inflation trends in connection with the war in Iran. The mildest scenario in terms of inflation is based on the lower energy prices recorded on March 11. Two other scenarios assumed significantly higher energy prices."
"However, the March inflation rate released today most closely aligns with the ECB’s mild scenario, in which inflation in the euro area climbs only slightly above the 3% mark in the second quarter. This currently argues against multiple interest rate hikes by the central bank, as currently expected by the market."
"We expect the ECB to raise key interest rates once in April or at least signal a rate hike in June. The inflation rate for April will also be published on the day of the next ECB Governing Council meeting on April 30."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Iranian media reported that Tehran is prepared to end the war under specific conditions, tilting markets toward risk.
- Iran set the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi tanker ablaze off Dubai on Tuesday, undercutting the peace narrative.
- Friday's NFP report and Wednesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI lead a data-heavy week for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.50% on Tuesday and counting, testing below the 100.00 handle for the first time since mid-March, snapping a five-session winning streak. The session tagged a high near 100.65 before sellers drove the index through the round number to a low around 99.90, where price continues to press. The move has unwound a good portion of March's rally, with the index now threatening to lose the key psychological figure after climbing nearly 3% month-to-date from the January lows close to 95.55.
The US Dollar came under broad selling pressure as markets tilted toward risk appetite after Iranian state media reported that Tehran is prepared to end the war, provided specific conditions are met and all attacks cease. However, the peace-talk lean looks premature; Iran struck the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi off Dubai on Tuesday morning in a drone attack on a vessel carrying two million barrels of crude, and Iran's Foreign Ministry dismissed the US 15-point ceasefire proposal as "unrealistic" and "excessive" just a day earlier. The conflicting signals suggest markets may be over-invested in a de-escalation that the facts on the ground have not yet confirmed, with Trump's April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fast approaching.
On the data front, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 91.8 in March, beating the 87.8 consensus but doing little to shift sentiment in a session dominated by geopolitics. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) missed at 52.8 against a 55.0 forecast, while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) printed at 6.88 million against 6.92 million expected. The week's marquee releases land later: Wednesday brings the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and February Retail Sales, while Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report carries a 60K consensus against a prior reading of negative 92K.
DXY 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.94. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 50-day exponential moving average near 98.90 and continues to respect the 200-day exponential moving average just below 99.15 as underlying trend support. The recent pullback from the 100.50 area has not broken these dynamic supports, suggesting the broader upswing from the mid-97.00s remains intact despite loss of immediate momentum. Stochastic RSI has retreated from overbought extremes toward the low-20s, indicating a cooling phase, yet the oscillator stabilizing rather than collapsing favors a corrective pause within an uptrend rather than a full reversal.
Initial support emerges at the 99.50 area, ahead of stronger backing at the confluence of the 200-day exponential moving average and the recent reaction low around 99.20. A break below this band would expose the 98.70 region, where the 50-day exponential moving average sits as the next line of defense for bulls. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the psychological 100.00 level, followed by 100.50, the recent swing high that currently caps the advance. A sustained daily close above 100.50 would confirm trend resumption toward higher highs, while failure to hold above 99.20 would shift the focus back toward a deeper consolidation phase.
In the 5-minute chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.94. The near-term bias is bearish, with price holding below the 200-period exponential moving average near 100.30 and extending a sequence of lower intraday highs from the 100.20 area. The Stochastic RSI has retreated from persistent overbought readings above 80 to the lower band, confirming fading upside momentum and aligning with the break below the psychological 100.00 handle. While the downside appears to be slowing as the oscillator approaches oversold territory, the dominant signal remains one of intraday selling pressure while the index stays capped beneath the 200-period average.
Initial resistance emerges at 100.00, which now acts as a pivot level after the recent breakdown, followed by 100.15 and 100.20, where earlier rebounds stalled before the latest slide. A recovery above 100.20 would be needed to challenge the 200-period EMA around 100.30 and weaken the immediate bearish tone. On the downside, minor support is seen at 99.90 ahead of last visible lows near 99.80; a clear break below this zone would open room toward deeper intraday weakness. As long as price trades below 100.20, rallies are likely to face supply into nearby resistance bands rather than establish a sustained reversal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD firms as the US Dollar eases after hitting ten-month highs
- Hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East improve sentiment, though risks remain elevated.
- ECB tightening bets contrast with Fed’s steady rate outlook.
EUR/USD edges higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens across the board following its recent rally, allowing the Euro (EUR) to snap a five-day losing streak. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1551, up nearly 0.75% on the day, but remains on track to close the month in negative territory amid heightened Middle East tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.90, easing after touching fresh ten-month highs of 100.64 earlier in the day.
The US Dollar’s pullback comes as improving risk sentiment weighs on demand after a Wall Street Journal report said that Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to end the war but is seeking guarantees. However, uncertainty remains elevated as attacks across the Gulf region continue. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that “the coming days will be decisive” and that “there is nothing Iran can do about it.”
The conflict has pushed Oil prices sharply higher amid ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The inflationary impact is now beginning to show in economic data, with the latest Eurozone preliminary inflation figures climbing above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target.
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.2% MoM in March, accelerating from 0.6% in February. On an annual basis, inflation picked up to 2.5% from 1.9%, though it came in below market expectations of 2.7%.
The Core HICP increased by 0.8% MoM, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual rate edged lower to 2.3%, missing both the 2.4% forecast and the prior reading.
This strengthens the case that the European Central Bank (ECB) could consider raising interest rates in the coming months if Oil prices remain elevated.
However, markets are scaling back expectations of any immediate move that had been priced in earlier, while still pricing in around two rate hikes by year-end, as rising energy costs also fuel concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone given its heavy reliance on imported energy.
Across the Atlantic, markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged through most of 2026, after earlier pricing in the possibility of policy tightening.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- The Dow rallies more than 500 points as reports emerged that the US-Iran conflict could be winding down.
- Technology stocks lead the rebound, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2% in a broad-based relief rally.
- Oil prices remain elevated after reports of an Iranian strike on a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai waters.
- Consumer confidence edged higher in March but inflation expectations surged to levels last seen in August 2025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) jumped around 500 points, or roughly 1.0%, on Tuesday as investors staged a recovery attempt on the final trading day of March. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2%. All three major indexes have been under significant pressure in recent weeks, with the Nasdaq still in correction territory, down more than 11% from its recent high. The Dow and S&P 500 are both within striking distance of corrections themselves, off more than 9% and 8%, respectively. The S&P 500 is on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2022.
Iran war headlines drive relief rally
Tuesday's advance was fueled by reports suggesting the US-Iran conflict may be approaching a resolution. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump told aides he was willing to end military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The New York Post later reported the president said he believes the war will likely end soon, with other nations taking the lead in reopening the Strait. The Dow opened near 45,200 before rallying sharply through the session, touching a high near 45,900 before settling around 45,700. The 50-period exponential moving average provided dynamic support throughout the afternoon on the 5-minute chart, while the Stochastic RSI closed in neutral territory around 68.
Tech stocks bounce from multi-week selloff
Technology, which has been under the most pressure since the conflict began, led Tuesday's bounce. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund traded 1.5% higher. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 1% and Microsoft (MSFT) advanced 2%. Separately, Oracle (ORCL) popped 2.6% despite reports it had begun a round of layoffs numbering in the thousands. Shares of the software maker have fallen 27% year-to-date as investors weigh competitive risks from generative artificial intelligence models and the impact of infrastructure investments on cash flow.
Oil prices remain elevated despite diplomatic optimism
Crude prices stayed elevated even as peace hopes lifted equities. Brent crude futures rose 4% to trade above $117 per barrel after Bloomberg reported that Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures advanced nearly 1% to above $103 per barrel. The energy sector has been the sole winner in March, up more than 12.5% for the month, while industrials have been the worst performer with a 10% decline. Healthcare and communication services are both off by more than 9%.
Consumer confidence edges up but inflation fears mount
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged up to 91.8 in March from 91.0 in February, beating estimates of 87.9. The Present Situation Index rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while the Expectations Index slipped 1.7 points to 70.9. Beneath the headline, the picture was less encouraging. Inflation expectations surged as consumers cited rising Oil, gas and war-related costs. US gas prices jumped above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Separately, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings fell to 6.88 million in February from a revised 7.24 million in January, below the 6.92 million consensus. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also retreated to 52.8 from 57.7, marking its third consecutive month of expansion but missing the 55 forecast.
Busy week ahead with NFP on Good Friday
Attention now turns to a compressed trading week ahead of the Easter holiday. Wednesday brings the ADP Employment Change report, where the consensus expects 40K private-sector jobs added after the prior month's 63K. Also on Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.5, roughly in line with the prior 52.4, alongside February retail sales. Thursday's calendar includes initial jobless claims and the Challenger Job Cuts report. The main event is Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where the consensus expects 60K jobs added after February's shock loss of 92K. However, NFP falls on Good Friday with US equity and bond markets closed, meaning the full market reaction will be deferred to Monday, April 6. A sharp surprise in either direction could produce significant opening gaps across equities, rates and foreign exchange at Monday's open.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- GBP/USD rises as weak US labor data caps the Dollar’s rebound.
- Iran threats sour sentiment, but Sterling holds gains above 1.3200.
- UK growth stays sluggish as stagflation risks cloud the outlook.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains on Tuesday after Iran's IRGC threatened to attack US companies as of April 1, turning the market mood sour, while the US Dollar (USD) trimmed some of its earlier losses. Nevertheless, the move was short-lived as GBP/USD trades at 1.3190, up 0.04%.
Sterling gains as soft JOLTS counters Iran threat and Dollar
Iran's state media reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would target US companies within the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran. Some of the names targeted are Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel and Boeing among the 18 companies warned by the IRGC.
In the headline, the Greenback cut some of its earlier losses as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, the DXY, which measures the buck's performance against six currencies, edges towards 100.00, down 0.37%.
US jobs data revealed weakness in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) revealed that vacancies fell from 7.24 million in January to 6.882 million in February. The data revealed that hiring deteriorated, falling 3.1 percentage points to 3.4% from the previous month, the US Department of Labor said.
In the UK, the economy expanded by a mediocre 0.1% in Q4 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in line with economists' estimates. Compared with a year earlier, GDP in the last quarter grew 1%, unchanged. It should be said that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) downward revised Britain's economy from 1.2% to 0.7% last week.
Hence, the UK economy faces a stagflationary scenario prompted by a double whammy: the Middle East conflict underpinning energy prices and the UK economy at the brink of decelerating further. Despite this, money markets seem to be getting ahead of themselves, pricing in 59 basis points of BoE tightening. Conversely, the Fed most likely stands pat, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Given the backdrop, GBP/USD could rise further in the near term, with the first key resistance seen at the March 30 high at 1.3282. If broken, expect a move towards 1.3300 and beyond.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3192. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds well below the clustered 50–200-day simple moving averages around 1.3500, keeping the broader down phase from the 1.3800 area intact. Price is pinned between an ascending support trend line from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, with the latest candles pressing the lower half of this contracting structure. The Fed Sentiment Index has pushed to fresh highs above 122, underscoring a stronger dollar backdrop that reinforces downside pressure while the pair remains capped beneath the descending trend line.
Immediate resistance emerges near 1.3330, where recent highs align beneath the descending trend line and the lower band of the moving-average cluster, with a break exposing 1.3400 and then the 1.3500 region as a stronger barrier. On the downside, initial support is at 1.3180–1.3200, just above the rising trend line drawn from 1.3035, and a clear close below this area would open 1.3100, followed by the 1.3035 swing low. As long as spot trades below 1.3330 and beneath the flattening medium-term averages, rallies are likely to be sold into, keeping the bias tilted to the downside toward the lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.41% | 2.27% | 1.88% | 1.97% | 3.67% | 4.80% | 3.71% | |
| EUR | -2.41% | -0.14% | -0.55% | -0.43% | 1.23% | 2.33% | 1.24% | |
| GBP | -2.27% | 0.14% | -0.38% | -0.29% | 1.37% | 2.47% | 1.40% | |
| JPY | -1.88% | 0.55% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 1.76% | 2.86% | 1.79% | |
| CAD | -1.97% | 0.43% | 0.29% | -0.10% | 1.66% | 2.76% | 1.68% | |
| AUD | -3.67% | -1.23% | -1.37% | -1.76% | -1.66% | 1.09% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -4.80% | -2.33% | -2.47% | -2.86% | -2.76% | -1.09% | -1.04% | |
| CHF | -3.71% | -1.24% | -1.40% | -1.79% | -1.68% | -0.01% | 1.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD trades around 0.5710 on Tuesday, down 0.15% on the day.
- The US Dollar remains supported near recent highs despite a slight pullback in the DXY.
- Investors remain cautious as geopolitical tensions and shifting interest-rate expectations influence sentiment.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5710 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes and market caution persists. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, stands near 100.20 after touching a ten-month high of 100.64 earlier in the day.
Markets remain focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump is reportedly willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, briefly raising hopes for de-escalation. However, Washington still aims to weaken Iran’s naval and missile capabilities while maintaining diplomatic pressure. Meanwhile, Iran warned it could target US companies operating in the region starting April 1. In addition, an Iranian parliamentary committee has approved a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping uncertainty elevated in energy markets.
On the macroeconomic front, US data provided moderate support to the Greenback. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March from a revised 91 in February. The improvement mainly reflects a better assessment of current economic conditions, according to the institution’s Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson, although the indicator remains on a broader downward trend since 2021.
At the same time, expectations of further monetary tightening appear to be fading. Investors are increasingly concerned that rising Oil prices could slow global growth while keeping inflation elevated. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range through the year.
In New Zealand, TD Securities notes that markets now price roughly three rate hikes this year for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), but believes expectations may be excessive.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.47% | -0.08% | -0.46% | 0.21% | -0.12% | 0.15% | 0.33% | |
| EUR | 0.47% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.72% | 0.38% | 0.66% | 0.84% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.41% | -0.31% | 0.33% | -0.01% | 0.25% | 0.45% | |
| JPY | 0.46% | -0.05% | 0.31% | 0.66% | 0.33% | 0.60% | 0.80% | |
| CAD | -0.21% | -0.72% | -0.33% | -0.66% | -0.33% | -0.06% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | -0.38% | 0.01% | -0.33% | 0.33% | 0.28% | 0.46% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.66% | -0.25% | -0.60% | 0.06% | -0.28% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.33% | -0.84% | -0.45% | -0.80% | -0.13% | -0.46% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Japanese officials warn against excessive FX moves, boosting the Yen amid rising intervention threats.
- BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals rate hikes remain possible as FX weakness fuels inflation.
- US Dollar eases slightly despite geopolitical tensions as markets await US employment data.
The USD/JPY fell to near the 159.00 level, extending its slide below the 160.00 barrier on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds support from intervention threats and hawkish signals from policymakers, while the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly despite the ongoing war with Iran.
From the United States (US) side, recent rhetoric from President Donald Trump continues to shape sentiment. While earlier comments helped boost the USD by reinforcing confidence in the US economy and downplaying the economic fallout from rising Oil prices, markets are now reassessing risks amid evolving geopolitical headlines.
The New York Post publishes President Trump's comments:
US has more work to do in Iran war.
US doesn't have to be in Iran much longer.
Hormuz Strait will 'automatically open.'
Other nations can reopen Hormuz Strait.”
Meanwhile, the JPY is gaining traction as authorities ramp up verbal intervention. Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, described recent currency moves as “speculative” and reiterated readiness to act against excessive volatility, signaling that officials are closely monitoring FX developments.
Additional support for the Yen comes from growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten policy further. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that exchange rate movements are having a meaningful impact on inflation and that persistent Yen weakness could justify rate hikes.
Short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.03. The near-term bias turns mildly bearish after the pair slipped back toward the lower end of its recent range and now flirts with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.74 while holding only marginally above the rising 100-period SMA at 159.05. The loss of upside momentum is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has retreated from the mid-60s to around 40, signaling fading buying pressure and leaving the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback while below the short-term average cluster.
Immediate support emerges at 159.02, just above the 100-period SMA, with a clear break opening the way toward 158.90 as the next downside level. Below that zone, sellers would gain traction and expose a more pronounced correction. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 159.42, followed by 159.56, where prior reaction highs converge with the short-term average band. A recovery through 159.56 would ease the current downside bias and re-establish the broader uptrend toward the 160.00 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- US CB Consumer Confidence Index improves in March.
- The US Dollar Index loses momentum, hovers around the 100.00 hurdle.
US consumer sentiment picked up marginal pace in March, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked a tad higher to 91.8 from February’s 91.0 (revised from 91.2).
“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future”… “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021,”said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) reverses part of its recent multi-day rebound, motivating the US Dollar Index (DXY) to abandon the area of recent peaks near 100.60 and refocus on a potential test of the 100.00 support.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
- Gold set for worst monthly drop since October 2008 amid Middle East turmoil.
- Softer US Dollar offers support, though a higher-for-longer rate outlook caps XAU/USD gains.
- Technically, XAU/USD remains mildly bullish within an ascending triangle on the 4-hour chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with an upside bias on Tuesday, on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. However, price action remains trapped in a one-week-old trading range, reflecting indecision among traders amid mixed signals on geopolitical developments and shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy path.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,618, up nearly 2.30% on the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.12, easing after touching ten-month highs of 100.64.
Middle East headlines keep markets cautious
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Donald Trump has decided he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, raising hopes that the conflict could end soon.
However, the report also noted that he has decided the US should still achieve its main goals of degrading Iran’s naval and missile capabilities and continue diplomatic pressure to restore trade flows, keeping tensions elevated.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it could target US companies in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for recent attacks.
Meanwhile, a parliamentary committee in Iran has approved plans to impose tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Fars News Agency, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Macro headwinds weigh on Gold
As the war continues to escalate and Oil prices remain elevated, fueling inflation worries, Gold is not behaving like a typical safe-haven or inflation hedge. Instead, price action is being driven by higher-for-longer interest rate expectations globally and sustained demand for the USD, with the metal now on track to post its worst monthly decline since October 2008.
At the same time, markets are beginning to push back earlier expectations of rate hikes, as traders grow concerned that rising Oil prices could slow economic growth even as they keep inflation high, creating a policy dilemma for major economies.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026. A higher interest rate environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.
In the near term, Gold is likely to remain range-bound with a slight downside bias unless a clear end to the US-Iran conflict leads to a meaningful decline in Oil prices and a shift in interest rate expectations.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD eyes breakout above $4,600
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD appears mildly bullish in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, an ascending triangle pattern is forming, suggesting building upside pressure. Spot now trades above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,494, which is acting as immediate support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 mark, signaling building upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, with the MACD line above its signal line and a modestly positive histogram suggesting buyers retain control in the current move.
On the upside, a clear break above the upper boundary of the triangle, near the $4,600 zone, could open the door for a move toward the 100-period SMA at $4,773.
On the downside, a break below the 50-period SMA at $4,494 could find support in the $4,300-$4,400 zone, followed by the March swing low near $4,100.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite a softer US Dollar.
- Canada's GDP signals a soft start to the year, with a modest rebound expected in February.
- US Dollar eases from multi-month highs as traders reassess risk sentiment.
USD/CAD edges higher on Tuesday, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a seventh consecutive day, even as the Greenback eases. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3960, hovering near its highest level since December 2025.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.17, pulling back after touching fresh ten-month highs of 100.64 earlier in the day.
The pullback in the US Dollar appears largely technical, while some easing in geopolitical risk sentiment is also weighing on demand after The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
However, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it could target US companies in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for recent attacks.
The Loonie has remained under sustained pressure since the US-Israel war with Iran erupted, pushing energy prices sharply higher. While Canada is a net Oil exporter, persistent downside pressure on the CAD reflects growing concerns that elevated energy costs could weigh on domestic demand and slow broader economic growth.
Adding to the cautious tone, Canada’s January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.1% MoM, slightly above expectations for a flat reading, though it marked a slowdown from the previous 0.2% expansion, pointing to soft underlying economic momentum at the start of the year.
However, preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP rose by 0.2% in February, indicating a modest pickup in activity and keeping growth broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s 1.8% projection outlined in its January Monetary Policy Report.
Meanwhile, traders are increasingly pricing in at least two Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes by year-end amid oil-driven inflation pressures. However, persistent labour market headwinds and contained underlying inflation suggest the Bank could remain patient, with rate hikes likely only if Oil prices stay elevated for longer.
In the United States, economic data released on Tuesday showed that JOLTS Job Openings fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.24 million in January, slightly below expectations of 6.92 million.
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose to 91.8 in March, beating forecasts of 87.9 and improving from 91 in February.
(This story was corrected on March 31 at 15:24 GMT to say that the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence in February was 91, not 91.2.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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