Forex News
- Gold price retreats to near $4,490 as US Treasury Yields receive some relief.
- US Treasury Department announces plans to double down on its bond buyback operations.
- Fears of de-anchored inflation projections and ballooning US debt have offered some relief to US bond yields.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.7% to near $4,490 in the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from its 11-week high of $4,527 posted earlier in the day. The yellow metal comes under pressure as United States (US) Treasury Yields claw back some of Wednesday’s losses.
As of writing, 30-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.5% to near 5.21%. 10-year US bond yields trade 0.67% higher at around 4.67%.
Higher yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Late Wednesday, US Treasury Yields were hit badly after the announcement from the US Treasury Department that it would at least double the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal securities, in an effort to curb a sharp increase in borrowing costs, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.
However, financial markets, believing that higher inflation projections due to elevated oil prices and widening government debt, have staged a decent recovery in US bond yields.
Analysts at Jefferies said that the Treasury's announcement does "little to address the underlying issues pushing bonds higher, which they said include unsustainable fiscal deficits and rising inflation expectations", Reuters reported.
Gold Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,490.45, extending its advance well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,299.17 and maintaining a clear bullish near-term bias. The short-term trend is supported by the distance between price and the EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.64 stays in positive territory but below the classic overbought threshold, hinting that upside momentum is strong yet not excessively stretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent closing area around $4,490, with a deeper layer of demand emerging at the 20-day EMA near $4,299, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend on any corrective pullback. With no nearby technical resistance levels from the current dataset, the metal’s path of least resistance remains to the upside, and only a sustained drop back toward the $4,299 region would start to weaken the prevailing bullish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD surges 1.13% in two days to hit fresh three-month highs above 1.1700.
- US Treasury's plan to double up Bond buybacks has crushed speculative demand for the USD.
- The Fed minutes showed a hawkishly leaning tone, but they failed to stem the US Dollar selloff.
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against an ailing US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the US Treasury’s plan to boost buybacks of long-term Government Bonds sent the Greenback tumbling across the board. The EUR/USD pair trades right above 1.1700 at the time of writing after surging about 1.13% from Wednesday’s lows.
The US Treasury Department announced on Wednesday its decision to double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities, to at least 4 billion per operation, from the current maximum size of $2 billion from September 9 on.
This plan is aimed at easing yields on long-term Government Bonds, under pressure this week, after data from the Treasury Department revealed that national debt rose above $40 trillion, prompting investors to demand higher compensation for holding US debt.
MUFG: Dollar vulnerability grows
Analysts at MUFG affirm that the buy-back announcement, combined with the recent FIMA report comment to Japan following intervention, risks proving “counter-productive” for the US Dollar. In their view, it could lead to “reduced appetite for either holding US assets (UST bond sales) or reduced appetite for exposure to the US dollar (dollar selling) or both.”
MUFG cautions that “even if the Treasury buy-back plan does contain yields, the US dollar now remains more vulnerable to the downside on the fact that yields are potentially lower.”
The Treasury's announcement shadowed the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy meeting, which showed a hawkishly leaning tone. The central bank's policymakers highlighted the need for higher rate hikes unless inflationary pressures abate, but failed to stem the US Treasury-inflicted Dollar sell-off.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/GBP trades around 0.8580 on Thursday, virtually unchanged on the day, as interest rate expectations support both currencies.
- Rising German producer prices and surging European natural gas prices are keeping inflation risks elevated across the Eurozone.
- UK inflation remains high, while markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by the end of the year.
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8580 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day. The pair lacks a clear direction as both the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) benefit from monetary tightening expectations, with investors assessing persistent inflationary pressures in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK).
European economic fundamentals continue to provide some support to the Euro. The sharp rise in European natural gas prices, linked to supply disruptions in the Middle East, is keeping inflation risks elevated and strengthening the case for further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year.
The latest German data point in the same direction. Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3% YoY in July, accelerating from the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 2.7%. This marks the fastest annual increase since April 2023. On a monthly basis, producer prices rebound by 1.1%, signaling persistent price pressures in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
Economists at UBS point out that German producer prices have surprised to the upside, noting that “German producer prices were higher than consensus.” However, they downplay the broader significance of the release, observing that “very few economists bother to forecast this data,” suggesting the figures carry limited weight for market participants relative to other drivers.
Against this backdrop, expectations that the ECB will continue its tightening cycle at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in September limit the Euro’s downside potential against the British Pound. The prospect of higher European interest rates could continue to support the shared currency if inflationary pressures persist.
The British Pound, however, retains its own sources of support. In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% YoY in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components, remains unchanged at 2.6%.
Investors are balancing these figures against recent signs of a cooling UK labor market. The absence of a major surprise in the inflation data, combined with slightly softer employment conditions, limits the need for particularly aggressive monetary tightening from the Bank of England (BoE).
Analysts at Danske Bank note that UK inflation data for July were broadly in line with expectations, adding that, "together with yesterday's weak labour market data, the release has taken the top off BoE pricing for the remainder of the year."
Money markets nevertheless continue to price in the prospect of a BoE rate hike by the end of the year, which would lift the Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4%. These expectations provide support to the British Pound and help offset the positive impact of ECB tightening prospects on EUR/GBP.
The pair therefore remains caught between two central banks facing persistent inflation risks. Energy price pressures and stronger producer prices bolster the case for the ECB, while elevated UK inflation keeps the possibility of another BoE rate hike alive, leaving EUR/GBP without a sufficiently strong catalyst to move away from the 0.8580 area.
Analysts at Danske Bank highlight that attention in the Euro area will centre on the ECB’s publication of the minutes from its July meeting due next week, “at which policy rates were left unchanged.” The bank expects the account to “show a bias towards a rate hike in September, which is also fully priced in by markets,” and, consistent with this view, they “continue to expect only one further 25bp rate hike from the ECB.”
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.30% | 0.11% | -0.34% | -0.07% | -0.45% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | -0.05% | 0.35% | -0.07% | 0.19% | -0.20% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.41% | -0.04% | 0.24% | -0.14% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.43% | -0.15% | -0.54% | -0.34% | |
| CAD | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.29% | -0.10% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.19% | -0.24% | 0.15% | -0.29% | -0.38% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.38% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.34% | -0.09% | 0.19% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner analyzes recent U.S. employment trends, noting that Nonfarm Payroll growth has slowed sharply, with average monthly gains of just 32,000 over the past year. He argues that official data likely understate job creation and expects a positive benchmark revision of about 250,000 jobs for March 2026, though this will not materially alter the current softening labor market trend.
Positive revision prospects
"U.S. employment has grown only slowly in recent quarters. Unlike in previous years, however, the published figures appear to slightly underestimate job growth. The upcoming annual revision is likely to be positive."
"Employment in the U.S. is now growing at a relatively slow pace. In July, it was only 0.24% higher than a year earlier. Average monthly job growth over the past 12 months amounted to just 32,000."
"In December 2025, the QCEW figures show job growth of 299,000 compared to December 2024 (an increase of 0.2%). By contrast, the nonfarm payrolls from the employment report show only a minimal increase of 69,000 jobs. This means they underestimated actual employment by 230,000."
"Therefore, there is a good chance that a similar discrepancy will exist between the two data series in March, leading to an upward revision of payrolls for the first time in four years. We expect a revision of about +250,000 jobs. This corresponds to just under 0.16%."
"While the revision does change the baseline—even if it won’t be incorporated into the data until next year—it is unlikely to lead to a reassessment of labor market developments since March. After all, a smaller revision also indicates that statisticians have improved their models, which should also benefit the quality of current labor market data."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Radhika Rao at DBS Group Research highlights that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) minutes from the early-August meeting were more cautious than Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s public messaging. Most members adopted a neutral-to-cautious stance, with Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta firmly pushing back on rate-cut expectations. The inflation outlook remains conditional on monsoon performance, El Niño risks and geopolitical developments, keeping potential tightening risks alive.
Cautious RBI tone keeps tightening risk
"Across the ocean, RBI minutes from the early-August policy meeting, released late Wednesday, were more cautious than the Governor's messaging at the rate review. Statements in the minutes pointed to four members preferring a neutral-to-cautious view, while Deputy Governor Gupta struck a firmer tone putting to bed rate cut expectations and Governor backed a pause but saw a need for broad-based policy tightening moves if inflation quickens here on."
"Besides highlighting early signs of cost pressures seeping into categories, members viewed the inflation outlook as conditional on the monsoon outcome, El Niño risks, and geopolitical developments."
"With inflation expected to average well over 5% in second half of FY27, investors might price in potential tightening risks in the run-up."
"Onshore markets’ price action is meanwhile likely to be more influenced by energy prices and US rate movements, with USD/INR’s attempts to break above 96.0 attracting strong counter presence."
"Despite these moves, rupee 1M volatility has largely moderated this month, after peaking in June."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.71 per troy ounce, down 0.42% from the $67.00 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 6.15% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 66.71 |
1 Gram | 2.14 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.33 on Thursday, down from 67.51 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
MUFG’s research team uses AI-driven textual analysis to judge the July FOMC minutes as slightly more hawkish, with broader support for a rate hike and concern over inflation expectations. However, fading tariff pass-through and data-dependent communication mean the minutes largely reinforce existing pricing, leaving major FX pairs and the broader US Dollar trend little changed.
AI sentiment analysis of Fed minutes
"Our AI-driven sentiment analysis framework identifies the July FOMC minutes, released last night, as slightly more hawkish than expected, although not enough to generate a repricing of the Fed outlook. The key message is that policymakers remain concerned about inflation persistence and retain a bias towards further tightening. The textual analysis revealed support for a July rate increase extending beyond the three formal dissenters, with "several participants" favouring a 25bp hike, compared with the softer "a few participants" language used in the June minutes."
"The textual analysis also highlighted AI as an inflation driver. Several participants highlighted that AI-related investment was boosting aggregate demand contributing to broad price pressures, while others also acknowledged productivity gains associated with AI adoption should eventually lower costs and expand supply. The Committee therefore appears to view AI as a near-term inflation risk, while aware its longer-term effects could prove disinflationary."
"However, the minutes also contained a subtle dovish signal through the discussion of tariff pass-through. The sentence, “Several participants assessed that the pass-through of past increases in tariffs into the level of prices was now largely complete and that the effects of recently announced tariffs on measured inflation would likely be modest.” Received the lowest score (most dovish) in our hawkish-dovish analysis suggesting that policymakers increasingly view tariff-related inflation as a fading source of price pressure."
"The muted FX reaction to the minutes supports that interpretation. The Treasury buyback announcement earlier in the session appears to have dominated market attention, leaving major FX pairs largely unaffected by the minutes. So, while the minutes modestly strengthen the case for further tightening, they do not provide the explicit signal required to generate a sustained repricing of the Fed path or a durable reversal in the broader USD downtrend."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
UBS' chief economist Paul Donovan notes that the United States (US) Treasury’s plan to at least double purchases of long-term US government bonds triggered a rally, pushing 10-year yields down to levels seen a week ago. Donovan argues higher yields worsen the US affordability crisis and debt service costs, and says this new policy aims to offset unintended bond market effects from the Gulf war and tariffs.
Treasury buying shifts yield dynamics
"The announcement that the US Treasury would “at least double” purchases of long-term US government bonds sparked a rally; 10-year yields fell to levels not seen for a whole week."
"Higher yields impact the US affordability crisis and debt service costs, making them a political focus. This policy is to counter the (presumably unintended) consequences for bond markets of other policies like the Gulf war and tariffs."
"The narrative around the bond market may be biased by commentators’ aversion to other administration policies (using bond market reactions to argue against war or tariffs)."
"US government debt as share of GDP is below record levels, and debt as a share of private wealth, an important metric for debt financing, is low."
"Federal Reserve policy uncertainty may add a financial market risk premium. The last Fed meeting’s minutes showed Fed Chair Warsh proposing fewer policy meetings—an unusual idea at a time of increased structural change."
"Most Fed members wanted unchanged rates, but with concerns about inflation persistence. Changes to the calculation of US inflation will help to lower it."
"US initial jobless claims may get a flicker of investor interest today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Strong Canadian oil gains are putting temporary pressure on the EUR/CAD cross.
- US Treasury bond buybacks and rising European gas prices are fueling Euro support.
- Accelerating German inflation increases expectations for further European Central Bank rate hikes.
EUR/CAD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.6110 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross faces downward pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from rising crude oil prices.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, combined with stalled negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, have driven the crude market surge. While the confrontation has spread to the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, US President Donald Trump noted that oil shipments continue to move through the passage, leaving open the possibility of future talks with Tehran.
Despite CAD's current edge, the EUR/CAD cross could regain ground as the Euro (EUR) receives support following new policy shifts from the US Treasury. By doubling its buyback limits for long-term notes and bonds in the upcoming financial quarter, the Treasury is expected to inject significant dollar liquidity into the market via its General Account, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and benefiting rival currencies like the Euro (EUR).
Eurozone inflows build as foreigners ramp up demand for local assets
Analysts at ING point out that the underlying flow picture for the Eurozone remains supportive, noting that “behind the scenes, foreigners are also buying a lot of eurozone debt and equities.” They highlight ECB data released yesterday showing that foreign investors “have bought around €1.1tr of eurozone securities over the last 12 months,” underscoring robust external demand for Eurozone assets and reinforcing the broader Euro diversification narrative.
Additionally, European economic fundamentals are providing underlying strength for the Euro. Soaring European natural gas prices, caused by Middle Eastern supply shortages, are keeping inflationary risks high, which will likely compel the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver further interest rate hikes this year.
Germany's July producer prices surged 3.0% year-on-year. This accelerated growth blew past market expectations of 2.7% to mark the fastest annual increase since April 2023, while monthly prices rebounded sharply by 1.1%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures across the Eurozone.
German producer prices surprise but market impact seen as limited
Economists at UBS highlight that the latest German producer price data "were higher than consensus," but they downplay the broader significance of the release, noting that "very few economists bother to forecast this data." This framing suggests the upside surprise is unlikely to materially shift market narratives, with the series viewed more as a secondary indicator than a key driver of investor positioning.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has broken to a three‑month high near 1.1680 as Dollar weakness and strong momentum underpin the pair. They see room for further gains toward 1.1725, though intraday moves are expected to be capped around 1.1700, with support now strengthened at 1.1635 and 1.1600 over the next few days.
Euro rally tests 1.17 ceiling
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, EUR surged by 0.89% and closed at a three-month high of 1.1677. Unsurprisingly, after such a sharp rally, conditions are deeply overbought. However, strong momentum suggests that there is scope for the rally to extend. That said, any advance could stay within a 1.1635/1.1700 range. In other words, a sustained rise above 1.1700 is unlikely."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570), indicating that “the price action suggests EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias.” On Tuesday (18 Aug, spot at 1.1580), we indicated that “while the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 and beyond can be expected.” Yesterday, EUR broke above 1.1615, as it rallied sharply to 1.1679. EUR closed at a three-month high of 1.1677, up by 0.89%. Given the strong momentum, there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725. We will maintain our positive EUR view as long as it stays above 1.1600 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1525)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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