Forex News
- The Swiss Franc led every major on Thursday despite a soft inflation print that argued for the opposite.
- Safe-haven demand and a soft US Dollar, not Swiss data, drove the move.
- Renewed Franc strength revives the SNB's intervention and negative-rate dilemma.
- Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report is the dominant catalyst for the pair.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) spent Thursday doing something that, on paper, should not work. It closed as the strongest currency on the board, firmer against every major rival, on the same morning that Swiss inflation undershot expectations, a print that ordinarily argues for a weaker Franc, not a stronger one. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% MoM against the 0.3% consensus, with the annual rate stuck at 0.6% versus 0.8% expected. A central bank fighting to keep inflation off the floor does not want its currency bid on a day like this. The market did not care.
A currency that ignores its own arithmetic
The chart makes the point better than the data does. USD/CHF was already grinding lower, from the overnight peak near 0.7950 down toward 0.7850, well before the 06:30 GMT inflation release. If anything, the soft CPI briefly helped the US Dollar: the pair bounced off its session low close to 0.7850 and clawed back toward 0.7900 in the hours after the print. The Franc did its heavy lifting before the data, and the disinflation that should have capped it barely left a mark. When a currency rallies ahead of a release that undercuts its own fundamentals, the move is being driven by something the official narrative would rather not name.
Half a dollar story
This is not purely a Franc story. The Franc's largest gain on the day came against the US Dollar, and the greenback spent the session on the back foot despite a week of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers talking down rate cuts. The soft patch arrived through the data: Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 225K against a 213K consensus, while first-quarter productivity and unit labor costs both came in below forecast. With Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) looming, traders leaned dovish and trimmed Dollar longs. Strip that out and a chunk of the Franc's 'strength' is really Dollar softness wearing a Swiss badge.
The cleanest haven in the room
Thursday's deeper tell: the Franc outran the other havens too, including the Japanese Yen. When safe havens diverge, the market is making a credibility judgment, and right now, the Franc is winning it. It carries no Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalization guessing game, no fiscal anxiety, and no political overhang. With a lingering Middle East risk premium still circling Strait of Hormuz headlines and desks de-risking into Friday's payrolls, the purest refuge gets the bid. The Franc is being treated as the haven of last resort, and it is behaving like one.
The SNB's recurring nightmare
Here is the real paradox. A relentlessly strong Franc is precisely what the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is trying to prevent. Its policy rate already sits at 0%, inflation is flirting with the floor, and the bank has made clear it would rather intervene in the currency market than drag rates back below zero. Thursday's soft CPI hands the doves fresh ammunition ahead of the June policy meeting and quietly puts negative rates back on the table. Yet the market responded by buying more Francs, effectively calling the bank's bluff. The currency is doing the one thing the SNB cannot easily stop, and it is doing it on a day that should have argued for the opposite.
The trade around it
Structurally, USD/CHF is holding above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.7850 but remains capped by the 200 EMA near 0.7950, with the 0.7900 handle as the intraday pivot. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is rolling over from elevated territory, a sign that Dollar momentum is cooling, not collapsing. A clean break back below 0.7850 opens the door to fresh Franc strength and, with it, rising odds of SNB jawboning. The bias stays Franc-positive while the risk-off tone holds, but the trade is asymmetric: the closer USD/CHF drifts toward the lows, the louder the intervention risk that caps any extension.
What Friday's payrolls decide
The week's real verdict lands at 12:30 GMT Friday with the May NFP report, consensus near 85K against 115K prior, and the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.3%. A soft headline extends the Dollar-leg of the Franc rally and presses USD/CHF back toward and through 0.7850. A hot one flips the script and snaps the pair back toward the 200 EMA near 0.7950. Average Hourly Earnings is the wage tell alongside the headline, and with positioning already dovish, the bar for a Dollar-negative surprise is the lower one.
USD/CHF 5-minute chart
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said on Thursday that inflation remains the Federal Reserve's (Fed) primary concern, while emphasizing uncertainty around the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Daly noted that although there are similarities between the current environment and the 1990s, policymakers should not assume the economy will follow the same trajectory.
Key takeaways
Just because we have similarities to the 90s doesn't mean it will be the 90s.
On rate path, we don't know how the economy will play out.
Policy is in a good place.
Prepared to respond either way.
Forward guidance not good at this juncture.
Hard to say labor market has firmed.
Labor market is resilient, we've stabilized.
Most worrying today is getting inflation back to target, number one priority."
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.20% | -0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.34% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.40% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.15% | -0.11% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.23% | 0.28% | 0.11% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.41% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.34% | 0.40% | 0.21% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CAD pulls back from its highest level since April 7.
- Technically, bullish momentum persists as RSI climbs toward overbought territory.
- Traders await US and Canadian employment data due on Friday.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recovers some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/CAD reversing earlier gains as traders weigh a softer Greenback against lower Crude Oil prices. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3895 after pulling back from an intraday high of 1.3925, its highest level since April 7.
The US Dollar is under modest pressure as market sentiment improves following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, raising hopes that US-Iran peace talks could regain momentum after showing little progress in recent days.
Oil prices have also retreated on the latest optimism. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is down more than 3% on the day after posting gains for three consecutive days. The Canadian Dollar is highly sensitive to Oil price movements, given Canada's status as a major crude exporter.
Softer Oil prices could limit deeper follow-through selling in USD/CAD, while traders also avoid placing aggressive directional bets ahead of key employment reports from the United States and Canada due on Friday.
In the United States, economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to show the economy added 85K jobs in May, down from 115K in April, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
In Canada, employment is expected to increase by 10K after a decline of 17.7K in April, with the Unemployment Rate forecast to hold steady at 6.9%
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds well above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3812 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3721, which underpins a constructive near-term bias.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 68, approaching overbought territory, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 24 suggests a moderate, strengthening trend as the pair grinds higher toward nearby overhead barriers.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the recent horizontal cap around 1.3920, with a subsequent hurdle at the psychological 1.4000 level, where further selling interest could build if momentum cools.
On the downside, any pullback is likely to find first support at the 200-day SMA near 1.3812, with the 100-day SMA around 1.3721 acting as a deeper safety net while the broader bullish structure remains intact above these averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- The Dow jumped 865 points, or 1.7%, to a fresh record high as money rotated out of chip names and into non-tech stocks.
- A Broadcom revenue miss sparked a broad semiconductor selloff, pulling the Nasdaq Composite lower while the S&P 500 scraped out a small gain.
- UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase and Walmart led the Dow higher, while the chip complex tracked Broadcom lower.
- Jobless claims ticked up and Strait of Hormuz tensions lingered ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tore to a record on Thursday, adding 865 points, or 1.7%, to settle above 51,000 and print an intraday high near 51,300. The split tape underneath told the real story. The S&P 500 managed just a 0.2% gain and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%, as investors pulled cash out of crowded artificial intelligence trades and parked it in the old-economy names that dominate the price-weighted Dow. On the daily chart the index sits well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a trend that has been intact since the early-April lows near 45,000.
The chip trade finally blinks
The rotation was set off by Broadcom (AVGO), which slid roughly 15% after its fiscal second-quarter revenue came in light and forward guidance failed to deliver the blowout AI growth the Street had priced in. The reaction punished the whole complex. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) shed more than 2%, Micron Technology (MU) dropped 7.7%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) fell 6%. CrowdStrike (CRWD) added to the gloom outside the chip space, sinking around 10% on soft guidance of its own. The semis had led the market's latest charge to records, so a stumble there was always going to sting the Nasdaq hardest. The takeaway is less that the AI story is over and more that not every AI-linked name carries the same expectations, and the bar after this earnings season is high.
Defensives and banks do the heavy lifting
With chips offside, the Dow's gains came from elsewhere. UnitedHealth (UNH) led the charge, climbing 5.8%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose 2.7% and Walmart (WMT) added 1.4%. The bid spread beyond the index too, with Costco (COST) up 2% and Eli Lilly (LLY) gaining 4.5%. It was a textbook defensive-and-financials rotation, the kind that flatters the Dow precisely when the high-multiple growth names that drive the Nasdaq are getting sold.
Labor data sends a mixed signal
The macro calendar offered something for both camps. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 225K, above the 213K consensus and the prior 212K, a soft patch that markets read as one more nudge toward eventual Fed easing. Challenger job cuts for May jumped to 97K from a far smaller prior reading, hinting at cracks in hiring. At the same time, first-quarter Nonfarm Productivity came in at 0.3% against a 0.8% expectation, with Unit Labor Costs at 1.8%. None of it was decisive, but the drift points to a labor market that is cooling rather than collapsing.
Hormuz risk that nobody wants to price
Sitting underneath the equity euphoria is a Middle East standoff the tape keeps shrugging off. Attacks have escalated between the US and Iran, with Iran striking Kuwait International Airport early Wednesday after US Central Command said it had defeated multiple Iranian missiles and drones and carried out self-defense strikes on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate shows no sign of resolving, and Oil sits as the obvious transmission channel. Records and complacency tend to travel together, and a market this stretched after a two-month surge has little cushion if the geopolitical premium suddenly reprices.
Fed voices and the jobs report ahead
Two Fed speakers crossed the wires Thursday, with Daly leaning hawkish at 15:30 GMT and Schmid following at 16:00 GMT, keeping the rate debate live without moving it much. The real test lands Friday at 12:30 GMT, when the May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due. Consensus looks for around 85K new jobs against 115K previously, with the Unemployment Rate seen holding at 4.3% and Average Hourly Earnings watched closely for any wage stickiness. A soft print would feed the easing narrative that has helped power the Dow to records; a hot one, paired with simmering Oil risk, could give this stretched rally the excuse to catch its breath.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- EUR/USD gains as easing Middle East tensions weigh on the US Dollar.
- Markets welcome the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, boosting hopes for progress in US-Iran talks.
- Markets are fully pricing in an ECB rate hike at next week's monetary policy meeting.
EUR/USD edges higher on Thursday as signs of easing tensions in the Middle East reduce safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1625, up 0.25% on the day.
Market sentiment improved after the United States announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, one of Iran's key demands to end the war. The development raised hopes that US-Iran peace talks could pick up pace after appearing to stall in recent days.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is down 0.20% on the day and trading around 99.34.
However, the two sides remain far apart on several major issues, including Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and most importantly, the future status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that "no tangible progress has been made," according to Tasnim News Agency.
The lack of progress in the negotiations is helping limit deeper losses in the US Dollar. At the same time, the recent rise in Crude Oil prices has fueled concerns that inflation could remain elevated, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer. That continues to provide underlying support for the Greenback.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) is struggling to draw meaningful support from growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could resume raising interest rates as inflation outlook deteriorates. Markets have fully priced in a rate hike at next week's meeting and are expecting at least two additional increases by year-end.
The surge in Oil prices has raised stagflation risks in the Eurozone, which could challenge market expectations for additional ECB rate hikes.
Traders now await Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh clues on the Fed's monetary policy path. Earlier this week, JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls data both came in stronger than expected. However, data released on Thursday showed weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 225K from 212K and came in above market expectations of 213K.
(This story was corrected on June 4 at 16:00 GMT to say that EUR/USD edges higher on Thursday, not Wednesday.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- Lebanon ceasefire headlines pressure Oil and weaken the Greenback.
- US jobless claims rise, but Nonfarm Payrolls remain the main focus.
- BoE hike bets support Sterling despite UK political turmoil.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers gains of over 0.16% on Thursday amid news that Israel and Lebanon agreed on a ceasefire, but headlines that Hezbollah rejected the plan triggered a retracement on Cable. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3439 after bouncing off daily highs of 1.3462.
GBP/USD rises as oil slump offsets Hezbollah uncertainty
Hostilities in the Middle East continued on Thursday, particularly Israel attacking the South of Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli forces began to withdraw from Dibbin in southern Lebanon, Al Hadath reported. Meanwhile, Iran reiterated that a ceasefire in Lebanon is crucial to advance in peace talks with the US.
A quick resolution of the Middle East conflict might ease inflationary pressures as major central banks are expected to maintain rates unchanged, while others, like the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), have tightened policy by 75 bps this year, citing the energy shock and Oil supply disruptions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, falls 3.3% to $93.04, a headwind for the Greenback due to its close correlation. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.21% to 99.34.
US jobless claims for the week ending May 30 exceeded estimates of 213K, coming at 225K, up from a downwardly revised 212K in the previous week. The 4-week average stood at 214.75K, nearly 5K above the previous reading of 208.25K. The Challenger Job Cuts in May rose from 83.387K to 97.006K, with nearly 39% in the technology sector, a 16% increase from April.
Despite this, the labor market is stable as traders eye the release of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for May, which is expected to show the economy adding 85K people to the workforce, and the Unemployment Rate remaining at 4.3%.
In the UK, amid political turmoil and the possibility of being sacked, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing his own party looking to replace him following the local election results.
Aside from this, comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers have been supportive of Sterling, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying that, if not for the events in the Persian Gulf, inflation would be at the 2% target. Two days ago, BoE MPC Megan Greene commented that she sees a growing case for a rate hike.
Money markets are pricing in approximately 47 basis points of Bank of England rate increases in 2026, implying that traders expect at least two rate hikes by the central bank.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3434. The pair is oscillating around its recent range midpoint, holding above the upward support trend line break near 1.3387 but still below the simple moving average at 1.3452, which leaves the near-term bias broadly neutral with a slight downside tilt. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 47 suggests subdued momentum, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index print at 148.83 hints that broader macro sentiment remains supportive but not sufficiently strong yet to overcome nearby technical caps.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the simple moving average around 1.3452, with a stronger barrier at the downward resistance trend line break near 1.3587, where sellers could reassert control if the bounce extends. On the downside, initial support comes in at the upward support trend line break around 1.3387; a sustained break below this floor would expose the recent lows and open the door to a deeper correction within the broader consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on June 4 at 15:51 GMT to say that the US Dollar Index is down 0.21%, not 9.21%, and to say that the Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average previous week print was 208.25K instead of 209K.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.21% | -0.46% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | -0.11% | 0.06% | 0.15% | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.34% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.19% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.10% | -0.25% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.24% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.46% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.16% | -0.13% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 0.13% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.46% | 0.22% | 0.34% | 0.40% | 0.46% | 0.28% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD trades on a bearish bias after gaining steam earlier in the session.
- US initial jobless claims rose to 225K, but the broader labor market remains stable.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock maintained a cautious stance on inflation, reinforcing expectations that the RBA will not rush into additional rate cuts.
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7140 on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) regains traction following the latest labor market data, while traders continue to assess remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock.
United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims rose to 225K in the week ending May 30, above the market expectation of 213K and up from 212K previously. Despite the increase, claims remain consistent with a relatively stable labor market. Continuing Claims also declined, reinforcing the view that labor market conditions remain resilient.
Earlier in the day, Bullock struck a relatively hawkish tone, emphasizing that the RBA remains focused on ensuring inflation returns sustainably to target. She also noted that policymakers are still assessing whether financial conditions are restrictive enough and signaled caution about premature policy easing, which supported Australian yields and helped the Australian Dollar (AUD) limit its losses.
Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, which will provide further clues on the strength of the US labor market and influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7141, maintaining a modest bearish bias as it sits below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7158 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7161. The pair is hovering just above nearby support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 suggests fading upside momentum, hinting that bounces may remain capped unless buyers can force a sustained break back above the clustered moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.7149, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.7158 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7161, which together form a dense supply zone that would need to be cleared to ease the current bearish tone. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 0.7139, with further cushions at 0.7135 and the prior base around 0.7128. A drop through these levels would open the door to a deeper corrective leg in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bob Savage highlights that the OECD now sees the Middle East conflict as the main driver of the global outlook, with surging energy and input prices lifting inflation and weighing on growth. The OECD cut its 2026 global GDP forecast and outlines time-limited versus prolonged disruption scenarios, warning inflation could rise notably under a prolonged shock while urging central banks to stay vigilant.
OECD warns on energy-driven risks
"The OECD has warned that the Middle East conflict has become the main driver of the global outlook, with energy and input prices surging since February, lifting inflation while weighing on real incomes and growth."
"It cut its projected global GDP growth for 2026 to 2.8% from 3.4%, while leaving 2027 unchanged at 3.1%."
"Its outlook presents two scenarios: a time-limited disruption, where growth slows modestly before recovering, and a prolonged disruption, where higher energy prices, supply shortages, tighter financial conditions and weaker confidence would depress activity further."
"Inflation could rise by around 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 1.3 percentage points in 2027 under the prolonged scenario."
"The OECD is urging central banks to remain vigilant where temporarily higher headline inflation resulting from the energy price shock can be looked through provided longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and says governments should keep energy relief temporary, targeted and well-designed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Scotiabank’s Analyst Team highlights that Japanese Yen gains are modest as USD/JPY hovers near the key 160 level, keeping intervention risk in focus. They note that hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and market pricing for limited tightening keep attention on the June 16 decision, while technical levels remain centred on 160 resistance and support in the 156–158 post-intervention range.
Yen sensitive to intervention risk
"The JPY is up 0.1% vs. the USD while underperforming most of the G10 currencies into Thursday’s NA session. Risk remains centered on the potential for official currency management (intervention) as USD/JPY tests the psychologically important 160 level."
"Comments from BoJ Gov. Ueda have been hawkish, and media reports suggest meaningful deliberations as policymakers look to next week’s meeting and consider an additional hike before year-end."
"Markets are currently pricing 24bps for the June 16 decision and are just below 50bps by December, offering little in terms of near-term upside. For USD/JPY, we continue to highlight the importance of the 160 level, with limited additional resistance ahead of 162."
"Near-term support is expected at 159, followed by the 156-158 range that prevailed in the immediate aftermath of the government’s interventions in late April/early May."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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