Forex News
- Initial Jobless Claims went down to 194K vs. the previous week.
- Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.728M.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 194K for the week ending October 17. The latest print came in below initial estimates (200K) and was lower than the previous week’s 200K (revised from 199K).
Additionally, the 4-week moving average went down by 1K to 197.75K vs. the previous week’s revised prints (198.75K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 25K to 1.728M for the week ending October 10.
Market reaction
The Greenback regains fresh upside traction, reversing part of the recent multi-day negative streak and trading with decent gains near 101.80 when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes highlights the Swiss Franc’s role as a funding currency, with gradual depreciation interrupted by sharp rebounds during periods of market stress. With Swiss inflation subdued and fiscal and external balances stable, he sees little pressure on the SNB to raise rates. However, he cautions against expecting sustained CHF weakness, as falling oil prices and a softer Dollar could eventually support the Franc against higher-yielding currencies.
Low inflation limits SNB tightening as CHF upside risks linger
"How can Switzerland, with a net international investment surplus totalling USD 1.22 trillion (109% of GDP), be a "funding currency"? An answer of sorts is emerging as the Swiss franc develops a pattern of gradual depreciation against both the euro and the dollar, interrupted by sharp corrections as the currency reacts to dramatic events."
“With inflation set to remain below 1% as far into the future as economists dare to look, despite real GDP growth approaching 2% this year, there is currently no pressure on the SNB to raise rates.”
“The current account surplus remains reasonably steady at around 6% of GDP, the budget is close to balance, and there is snow falling in the mountains.”
"Anyone looking for the start of a sustained CHF downtrend risks being disappointed. However, if Swiss CPI data remain as well behaved as they have been so far this year, rising from 0.1% in January to 1.0% in September, there is little pressure to tighten monetary policy in the near term."
“The biggest risk is that, when oil prices eventually fall, a weaker dollar could potentially drag the Swiss franc higher relative to some higher-yielding currencies. The timing of such a move is highly uncertain, however, and the end of the Gulf conflict would initially be a risk-supportive event that is unlikely to benefit the franc.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI Oil climbs toward $100 amid persistent Middle East supply risks.
- The daily chart favours buyers as WTI stays above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs.
- A decisive move above $100 could pave the way for further gains toward $105.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounds on Thursday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep supply risks elevated, maintaining a significant geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $99, hovering near five-week highs and up more than 1.50% on the day.
According to The New York Times, the United States (US) and Israel are considering renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, with the country's energy facilities among the potential targets.
Meanwhile, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis shows no signs of easing, following reports of attacks on the Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport. The situation has also prompted the US State Department to order non-emergency government staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that its navy targeted four vessels involved in Oil transfers in the Gulf. Separately, three other ships reportedly caught fire after striking mines near the Strait.
Despite mounting tensions, Middle East Oil exports have recovered to pre-war levels as producers increasingly rely on alternative shipping routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from Kpler cited by the Financial Times, Oil shipments from Gulf producers excluding Iran averaged 24.6 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, above the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels per day.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $91 and the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered just below $85.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 64 stays in positive territory without yet reaching overbought extremes, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, together suggesting firm upside momentum backed by a moderately strong trend signaled by an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 27.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the $100 psychological mark. If buyers extend the advance, the next barrier emerges at $105. A sustained break above this level could open the door toward $110, followed by the $113 peak reached after the Middle East war erupted.
On the downside, initial support is seen around $95, followed by the 50-day SMA near $91. A deeper pullback could expose the 100-day SMA at $84.67 and the 200-day SMA at $84.11, ahead of the $80 and $75 psychological levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Indian Rupee falls back against the US Dollar after hitting a fresh almost seven-week high.
- Surging oil prices weigh heavily on the Indian Rupee.
- Investors await flash India-US PMI data for October.
The Indian Rupee (INR) fails to extend its winning streak for the eighth trading day against the US Dollar (USD). The USD/INR pair rebounds sharply to near 94.91 after attracting signficant bids at around the seven-week low of 94.33. The Indian currency was outperforming in the past few days; however, a significant jump in oil prices has faded the rally.
As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is up 2.8% to near Rs. 9,500. Higher oil prices bode poorly for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
Middle East tensions flare and US clarifies diplomatic pullback
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that “several geopolitical headlines came through overnight that led to mounting concerns about a fresh escalation in the conflict,” prompting them to “start with the oil moves.” They note that this backdrop “dampened hopes for a near-term resolution, and oil prices have continued to rise over the last 24 hours.”
Commerzbank similarly points out that Middle East tensions intensified after “a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field killed two people and injured two others.” According to the bank, “oil prices briefly jumped on reports suggesting a wider withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel from the Gulf, but pared gains after Washington clarified that the order was limited to Saudi Arabia,” helping to contain the initial risk-driven spike.
What strengthened INR in the past few days?
Plenty of tailwinds, including active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets on several occasions, fresh measures announced to curb US Dollar demand and a significant inflow of foreign funds for the Jio Platforms Initial Public Offering (IPO), are fueling the rally in the Indian currency.
DBS Group Research highlights that the Reserve Bank of India has rolled out a “multi-layered defence strategy to support the rupee this year,” combining “outright intervention in spot/forwards, regulatory action, liquidity steps, administrative measures and moves to curb import-related dollar demand.” According to DBS, the authorities “are likely not done yet and remain ready to take further action, as required,” with RBI Governor Malhotra underlining the central bank’s resolve in a recent Moneycontrol interview on 13 October, stressing that “The RBI is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market.”
Meanwhile, Reliance Industries-backed Jio Platforms has launched its ₹30,213 crore IPO on October 21, 2026, which will remain open until October 23, according to Groww.
India-US flash PMI data awaited
Investors are keenly awaiting October's preliminary private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for both India and the US, which is due on Friday.
The US S&P Global PMI report will likely show that overall business activity expanded again, but at a moderate pace.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers strongly to near 94.90
On the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.91, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.44. The moving average now acts as immediate dynamic resistance, suggesting rallies are likely to be sold while price remains capped beneath this gauge.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.68 sits near oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 95.44, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease current bearish pressure and open the door to a corrective rebound. Looking down, the June 25 low at 94.15 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- EUR/USD hits session lows below 1.1200 after failing to extend its recovery beyond the 1.1250 area.
- Oil price rally and ongoing French debt woes pose a heavy weight for any significant Euro recovery.
- The US Dollar remains depressed, which is keeping the Euro from depreciating further.
The Euro (EUR) pares recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as escalating French bond yields and higher Oil prices amid growing uncertainty in the Middle East prove a heavy weight for any significant recovery. The EUR/USD pair has hit lows below the 1.1200 level at the US session opening, after being rejected just above 1.1250 earlier in the day.
France’s debt yields have rushed to fresh highs amid investors’ concerns about the government’s inability to restore fiscal stability, while the country braces for further protests next Saturday, with the images of last week’s riots still in everyone’s mind. In this context, the yield of the benchmark 10-year OAT note has jumped to 5.10%, its highest level since 2002.
Moody’s rating agency is expected to review France's credit status on Friday, and markets are anticipating a downgrade, which would add strain on the country’s troubled credit status. Moody’s ranked France’s sovereign debt with an Aa3 rating in April, but the Outlook is negative, and the latest developments have not helped to improve it.
Brent Oil prices add pressure on the Euro
Beyond that, Brent Oil prices have rallied above $108.00, nearing the highest levels in the last five months, clouding the economic outlook of Eurozone economies and boosting inflationary pressures higher, ultimately threatening to tip the region into a stagflationary cycle.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, is not faring much better this week, which keeps the Euro from falling further. US Treasury yields are retreating from recent highs, as investors assume that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hit the pause button next week, and ponder the overall scope of the monetary tightening cycle.
Looking ahead, Analysts at ING argue that “until the rock-solid short-end of the US yield curve starts to buckle, it is hard to make the case that the Dollar needs to fall across the board.” In this context, the bank “favour[s] consolidation over correction for the DXY Dollar index, but do[es] not rule out some further softening to the 101.25/30 area,” suggesting any Dollar weakness is likely to be contained rather than the start of a broader downtrend.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park expects the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% at the 29-30 October meeting, maintaining a hawkish tone. The bank notes upside inflation risks and firmer Tokyo CPI and PPI data, but highlights weak domestic demand and subdued consumption. December is seen as a live meeting, while January 2027 remains the base case for the next hike.
BoJ stance and implications for JPY
"We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at its 29-30 October meeting, following September’s 25bps hike."
"However, we expect policy makers to maintain a clearly hawkish tone."
"As a result, the debate is increasingly shifting from whether the BoJ will hike again to when the next hike will occur."
"While December is now a live meeting, January 2027 remains our base case for the next hike."
"At the same time, the BoJ has an incentive to continue policy normalisation to support yield differentials and reduce the risk of renewed JPY weakness, particularly if the Fed resumes tightening or maintains a restrictive policy stance for longer than expected."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD’s recent sharp gains have left the pair consolidating around 1.3395, with scope for a modest intraday rise within 1.3370–1.3415. Over the coming weeks they maintain a constructive stance, looking for a move toward 1.3440 while raising strong support to 1.3330. Their 1–3 month outlook points to further rebound potential toward 1.3480 as upward momentum builds.
Pound retains constructive technical setup
"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose sharply to a high of 1.3409 two days ago. Yesterday, we indicated that “the sharp rise appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to advance today, GBP is more likely to consolidate between 1.3340 and 1.3410.” GBP then traded within a 1.3369/1.3403 range, closing slightly higher at 1.3394 (+0.11%). The slight increase in upward momentum suggests GBP could edge higher today, but any advance should stay within a 1.3370/1.3415 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive GBP view from late last week, we highlighted yesterday (21 Oct, spot at 1.3375) that “there is scope for GBP to rise to 1.3440 next.” We also highlighted that “a breach of 1.3300 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that GBP is not rising further.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level higher to 1.3330."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF hits one-month lows near 0.8190 and drops more than 2% in less than two weeks.
- Switzerland's solid fiscal stability has given the CHF a safe-haven status amid the global bond selloff.
- A daily close below the 0.8230 area confirms a Double Top pattern just below 0.8400.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) keeps marching higher against the US Dollar (USD), favoured by Switzerland’s solid fiscal stability and the Greenback's weakness, as traders ponder the depth of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary tightening cycle. The USD/CHF pair accelerated its downtrend on Thursday, hitting one-month lows below 0.8200, before trimming some losses.
Investors have rushed to the Swiss Franc over the last few weeks, with global bonds tumbling on concerns about the elevated debt levels in the world’s leading economies. US debt climbed to 124% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026, France’s to 119%, while Japan’s escalated beyond 200% of the country’s GDP. In contrast, Switzerland’s remains around 15%, which is the main reason behind the 2.3% USD/CHF decline over the last two weeks.
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that “Switzerland’s public finances are much more solid than those of most other industrialised countries.” They acknowledge domestic debates over whether the country’s “debt brake can always be adhered to in the face of demographic change and additional military expenditure. But these concerns pale in comparison to those in other European countries."
The minutes of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) latest monetary policy meeting, released on Thursday, revealed a moderately positive economic forecast for the coming quarters. Regarding inflation, SNB policymakers see no signs of second-round effects as of yet, although they warn that the high energy prices will keep price risks skewed to the upside in the near term. The Swiss Franc appreciated after the release.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF pierces the neckline of a Double Top pattern
USD/CHF trades at 0.8213 at the time of writing, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the neckline of a Double Top pattern, in the 0.8230 area, a common figure for trend shifts. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart remain negative, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 34 and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hinting that sellers still retain the upper hand despite the proximity of support areas.
A daily close below the mentioned 0.8230 area confirms a Double Top pattern just ahead of the 0.8400 level. This would increase pressure on the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October rally, near 0.8195, which is holding bears for now, and the September 16 and 22 lows around 0.8180. The Double Top's measured target is at the September 9 low, near 0.8070.
A bullish reaction above 0.8230, on the contrary, would shift focus towards Monday's high around 0.8270 ahead of the October 15 high, at the 0.8315 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.43% | -0.80% | -0.56% | -0.65% | -0.27% | -0.56% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.24% | -0.61% | -0.38% | -0.40% | -0.08% | -0.38% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | 0.24% | -0.36% | -0.12% | -0.15% | 0.16% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.80% | 0.61% | 0.36% | 0.24% | 0.15% | 0.53% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.56% | 0.38% | 0.12% | -0.24% | -0.08% | 0.34% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.65% | 0.40% | 0.15% | -0.15% | 0.08% | 0.31% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.08% | -0.16% | -0.53% | -0.34% | -0.31% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | 0.56% | 0.38% | 0.08% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold slides nearly 2% as higher-for-longer interest rate expectations weigh on demand.
- Markets expect the Fed to hold rates next week before raising them again in December.
- Technically, XAU/USD tests lower Bollinger Band support as selling pressure builds.
Gold (XAU/USD) slips below $4,100 on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds, while energy-driven inflation concerns from Middle East tensions reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated longer. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,059, its lowest level since August 5.
The New York Times reported that the United States (US) and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections, potentially targeting the country's energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to escalate, with fresh attacks reported on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport. The US State Department has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia.
Fresh geopolitical headlines have raised concerns about further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies, pushing Oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounds toward $100, up 1.40% on the day and trading near five-week highs.
The ongoing energy shock has pushed inflation above central bank targets across major economies, prompting policymakers to raise borrowing costs. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. The longer the conflict drags on, the longer central banks may need to keep monetary policy restrictive.
Traders now look ahead to next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where the US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) in September. Markets will closely watch for clues about the Fed's interest rate path, as traders price in another rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool placing the odds at 89%.
These hawkish expectations keep dip-buying interest in the US Dollar intact after its recent correction from multi-month highs, triggered by falling US Treasury yields as concerns over AI-related investments weigh on equities and drive demand for government bonds.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.78 after hitting a three-week low of 101.45. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stands at around 5.04%, down over 1% on a daily basis.
Despite the recent decline, US Treasury yields remain elevated, and combined with a stronger US Dollar and prospects of higher interest rates, Gold is likely to remain on the back foot, with any recovery likely to attract fresh selling interest.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests lower Bollinger Band
On the daily chart, XAU/USD tests the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069, while trading below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which forms the middle Bollinger Band around $4,153, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index hovers in the high-30s, hinting at lingering downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally positive but has rolled over, suggesting that recent recovery momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near $4,153, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around $4,237. A sustained break above these levels could open the door toward $4,400, followed by the $4,500 psychological mark.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069. A clear break below this level could expose the $4,000 psychological mark, followed by the June lows around $3,950.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- AUD/USD slumps to near 0.7000 as higher oil prices weigh on the Australian Dollar.
- The withdrawal of US non-emergency personnel from Gulf has prompted risks of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions.
- Investors keenly await the preliminary Australia-US PMI data for October.
The Australian Dollar underperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Thursday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the antipodean is down 0.4% to near the psychological level of 0.7000.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.85% | -0.03% | 0.48% | 0.55% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.08% | -1.14% | -0.34% | 0.17% | 0.24% | -0.65% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | 0.08% | -1.07% | -0.30% | 0.24% | 0.31% | -0.56% | |
| JPY | 0.85% | 1.14% | 1.07% | 0.80% | 1.33% | 1.37% | 0.51% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.34% | 0.30% | -0.80% | 0.52% | 0.60% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.17% | -0.24% | -1.33% | -0.52% | 0.06% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.24% | -0.31% | -1.37% | -0.60% | -0.06% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.65% | 0.56% | -0.51% | 0.29% | 0.80% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Risk-perceived currencies have come under pressure due to surging oil prices amid fears of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is up 1.5% to near $99.00.
Analysts at Commerzbank report that Middle East tensions “intensified after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field killed two people and injured two others,” but note that the impact on crude was ultimately contained. They highlight that “oil prices briefly jumped on reports suggesting a wider withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel from the Gulf,” before the move faded as “Washington clarified that the order was limited to Saudi Arabia,” prompting the market to pare earlier gains.
Meanwhile, the recovery move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also build pressure on the Aussie pair. In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 101.66 after revisiting the three-week low near 101.45.
The next trigger for the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar is expected to be the Australia-United States (US) flash private sector PMI data for October, which is scheduled for Friday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6996. The pair sits exactly at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 0.6996, turning it into a pivotal level and keeping the short-term bias neutral while price oscillates around this dynamic line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark at 48, hinting at a lack of clear directional momentum as recent downside pressure has slowed but buyers have yet to regain firm control.
With price pinned to the 20-day EMA and the delivery of a breakout of the Double Bottom formation, a sustained close above this pivot would open the door for the bulls to regain the upper hand and attempt a recovery toward prior highs around 0.7036. On the downside, the Aussie pair could enter a fresh leg of decline if it declines below the October 15 low at 0.6894.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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