Forex News
- Gold holds steady during the Asian session on Friday as the USD pauses for a breather.
- The Fed’s hawkish tilt, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical risks favor USD bulls.
- The XAU/USD pair remains on track to register weekly losses and seems vulnerable.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move through the Asian session on Friday and languishes near the weekly low set the previous day amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather following a strong rally to a nearly two-month high and offers some support to the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, elevated US bond yields, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties favor USD bulls. This, in turn, keeps the precious metal below $4,300.
Fed speakers have given more hawkish signals following the September rate hike and are leaning toward potential further policy tightening. In fact, Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday that the backdrop of rising inflationary risks and a strong economy means the US central bank is likely to deliver more rate hikes. Furthermore, a private survey showed that US business activity this month jumped to its highest level since July 2021 and prices paid by businesses for inputs surged to a nearly four-year high. Adding to this, New York Fed President John Williams noted on Thursday that another interest rate hike this year would be a reasonable expectation.
Williams flags resilience and inflation risks as Fed tone stays firmly hawkish
Fed’s Williams delivered a notably firm message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.2/10, above the 6.2/10 historical average, underscoring a more hawkish tone relative to the established baseline. The emphasis on “remarkable resilience” in the US economy, receding downside risks to maximum employment, strong AI-related demand, and the remark that another rate hike by year-end is “reasonable” all point to a Fed still focused on taming inflation, even as explicit forward guidance is dialed back.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.18 points to 148.63, indicating a modest pullback in hawkish intensity despite the strong speech score on the FXS Speechtracker. With the index still far above the neutral 100 mark, the Fed’s stance remains clearly hawkish, suggesting ongoing support for the Dollar even as markets reassess the durability of higher yields.
Moreover, inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices, due to tensions in the Middle East and a possible 90-day ban on US diesel exports, support prospects for further tightening by the Fed. This, in turn, pushes US bond yields to multi-year peaks. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury hovers near levels not seen since July 2007, which supports the buck and should cap the upside for the non-yielding Gold. Moreover, the uncertainty over how and when the US-Iran conflict could end validates the near-term positive outlook for the safe-haven Greenback and warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery for the bullion.
In the latest developments, Trump said earlier this week that he had been considering extremely severe military action against Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran remains committed to its nuclear program and would refuse to bow to US pressure, raising concerns about whether the two countries can reach a peace deal. Adding to this, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on a sensitive target in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, and on Aramco facilities. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD is to the upside, warranting caution for XAU/USD bulls.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The precious metal keeps a bearish near-term bias below the 50.0% retracement level of the June-August upswing and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The latter coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,408 and reinforces a heavy topside cap. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative and below its signal line, hinting at persistent downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 stays shy of overbought territory and suggests room for further weakness before any oversold conditions emerge.
However, a break below the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,231 is needed to back the case for deeper losses to the 78.6% level at $4,105 before the prior cycle low area near $3,945 comes into view on a continuation of the current slide. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 50.0% retracement at $4,320, ahead of a denser barrier where the 38.2% level at $4,408 converges with the 200-period SMA at $4,417. A sustained break above this area would be needed to soften the bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.96% | 1.30% | 0.87% | 1.13% | 1.38% | 1.08% | 0.78% | |
| EUR | -0.96% | 0.35% | -0.07% | 0.16% | 0.41% | 0.12% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | -1.30% | -0.35% | -0.52% | -0.18% | 0.07% | -0.23% | -0.50% | |
| JPY | -0.87% | 0.07% | 0.52% | 0.29% | 0.49% | 0.21% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -1.13% | -0.16% | 0.18% | -0.29% | 0.31% | -0.07% | -0.32% | |
| AUD | -1.38% | -0.41% | -0.07% | -0.49% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.63% | |
| NZD | -1.08% | -0.12% | 0.23% | -0.21% | 0.07% | 0.29% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.78% | 0.16% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.32% | 0.63% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1375 as the US Dollar remains broadly firm.
- Fed officials have warned of upside inflation risks and have signalled optimism on economic outlook.
- The Euro is expected to raise policy rates again this year.
The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower at around 1.1375 against the US Dollar (USD) in the early European trade on Friday, but is inside Thursday’s trading range. The major currency pair is broadly under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms across the board.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its eight-week high of 101.40 posted on Thursday.
Market experts see more strength in the US Dollar as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have guided a hawkish monetary policy path and signaled economic resilience.
Dollar strength underpinned as Fed officials flag scope for further tightening
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman observe that the USD is “powering forward against most major currencies,” with a hawkish Fed stance and widening US economic growth outperformance suggesting the Dollar “can keep flexing its muscle.” They point to comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr, who warned that “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion,” reinforcing expectations that policy may need to tighten further.
BBH also highlights remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who said the US economy shows “remarkable resilience,” while inflation remains the “big challenge” and that “another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year.” Taken together, BBH argues that Barr and Williams’ comments “strengthen the case for additional Fed funds rate hikes,” providing a supportive backdrop for continued Dollar strength.
Though investors have underpinned the US Dollar over the Euro, the latter has performed majorly positive against its other peers amid expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike policy rates again this year.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1376, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1501. The pair has retreated steadily from recent highs, and while the Relative Strength Index (14) sits deep in oversold territory near 25, this momentum reading only hints at stretched downside conditions rather than a confirmed reversal signal.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period EMA around 1.1501, which acts as the first barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate selling pressure; before that, the 1.1400 level is the critial hurdle.
On the downside, the pair coudl enter a fresh downside leg if it fails to hold the immediate cushion at around 1.1350.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- USD/CHF rises as strong US data and high oil prices fuel hawkish Fed signals, pushing October rate hike odds to 67.5%.
- The Swiss National Bank held rates at 0% in September, citing Middle East uncertainty and high oil prices.
- Swiss National Bank weighed potential foreign-exchange market interventions.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around nearly 16-month highs of 0.8296 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, driven primarily by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials.
Elevated oil prices and robust US economic data have stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed may tighten its monetary policy even further. Reflecting this shift, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the likelihood of an October benchmark rate hike has jumped to nearly 67.5%, marking a significant increase from 55.4% a week prior and just 11% a month ago.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has weakened following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) latest monetary policy decision. In contrast to other central banks, the SNB opted to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0% during its September meeting. The central bank cited elevated uncertainty in the Middle East, which continues to keep global oil prices high, as a primary factor in its decision to pause.
Despite this holding pattern, Swiss economic growth has remained resilient, largely supported by the weaker franc, while medium-term inflationary pressures have increased only slightly. SNB policymakers also reiterated their willingness to utilize foreign-exchange market interventions, though uncertainty remains in the market regarding whether their future actions will aim to weaken or support the currency.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- NZD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day amid a bullish USD.
- Rising Fed hike bets, elevated bond yields and geopolitical risks continue to benefit the buck.
- The RBNZ’s dovish outlook backs the case for an extension of the pair’s one-month-old slide.
The NZD/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day, flirting with its lowest level since late June, around mid-0.5600s during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register losses for the fifth straight week and seem vulnerable amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
In fact, the USD Index (DXY) shot to a nearly two-month high on Thursday amid rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and surging US bond yields. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an over 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in October following the widely expected 25 basis points (bps) hike earlier this month. The expectations were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments from several Fed officials.
Adding to this, inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices underpin prospects for further Fed tightening and lift the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury to a fresh high since July 2007. Moreover, the uncertainty over how and when the US-Iran conflict could end keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and suggests that the path of least resistance for the safe-haven Greenback remains to the upside. This validates the near-term negative outlook for the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the US-China trade truce would be extended until January 10. This, however, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish outlook backs the case for an extension of an over one-month-old downtrend. Traders now look to US macro data and Fed speeches for some impetus later during the North American session.
NZD/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The NZD/USD pair seem poised to extend its downtrend towards the year-to-date low, around 0.5625, touched in June. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for further losses.
On the topside, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 0.5700 mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged ahead of mid-0.5700s, which, if cleared, should set the stage for some meaningful recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.65% | 3.27% | -0.65% | 2.28% | 2.10% | 5.61% | 3.43% | |
| EUR | -2.65% | 0.53% | -3.24% | -0.40% | -0.60% | 2.76% | 0.77% | |
| GBP | -3.27% | -0.53% | -3.83% | -0.99% | -1.08% | 2.23% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.65% | 3.24% | 3.83% | 2.97% | 2.79% | 6.20% | 4.17% | |
| CAD | -2.28% | 0.40% | 0.99% | -2.97% | -0.15% | 3.07% | 1.14% | |
| AUD | -2.10% | 0.60% | 1.08% | -2.79% | 0.15% | 3.33% | 1.33% | |
| NZD | -5.61% | -2.76% | -2.23% | -6.20% | -3.07% | -3.33% | -1.95% | |
| CHF | -3.43% | -0.77% | -0.17% | -4.17% | -1.14% | -1.33% | 1.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee finds a temporary ground against the US Dollar near 96.00 on possible RBI intervention.
- Elevated energy prices and Fed’s higher interest rates prospects boost US Treasury Yields.
- The possibility of an RBI interest rate hike in October has increased.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains a temporary ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after remaining under pressure in the past few days. The USD/INR pair struggles to extend gains above 95.96 on the likely Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention.
According to a Reuters report, India's central bank likely sold US Dollars before the local spot market opened on Friday, four traders told, helping the Indian rupee hold stronger than the key psychological 96-per-dollar level.
However, the mild strength in the Indian Rupee appears to be short-lived as United States (US) Treasury Yields continue to rally due to elevated energy prices and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) higher-for-longer interest rate narrative.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on October 19 trades 2.3% lower to near Rs. 8,950, but has gained sharply in the last two trading days. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury Yields are close to its 19-year high of 5.23% posted on Thursday.
The appeal of riskier assets, such as equities and currencies, like the Indian Rupee, gets diminished, in a high US bond yields environment.
US yields surge as markets reprice Fed's rate path
Analysts at MUFG highlight that the “dominant market theme remains the relentless rise in US yields and the renewed repricing of Fed expectations.” They note that Treasury yields “moved sharply higher as strong US activity data and rising energy prices reinforced concerns that inflation could prove more persistent.” In their latest update, MUFG points out that the “US 2-year Treasury yield jumped 14bp to around 4.9%, while the 10-year yield rose above 5.0% and the 30-year yield climbed beyond 5.4%.”
Against this backdrop, MUFG observes that “markets now price around 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026, equivalent to roughly 1.5 rate hikes by year-end.” The bank cautions that this “economic resilience raises the risk that policymakers may need to do more to prevent inflation pressures from becoming entrenched,” underscoring the challenging environment for risk assets and, in particular, Asia FX.
India’s rising retail inflation boosts hawkish RBI bets
Analysts at MUFG note that India’s August inflation “rose 4.8% yoy (DBSf 4.9%) from a revised 4.5% month before, firmest since December 2024,” highlighting a clear uptick in price pressures. They add that “a gradual broadening of price pressures is likely to keep headline inflation above 5% in second half of the fiscal year, underscoring the need for a tighter policy bias.” In their view, “recent developments, including a sustained rise in crude prices, tightening global financial conditions, firm domestic growth and signs of broadening in core pressures, strengthen the case for a shallow 50bp hike in second half of FY27, making October’s meeting a live one.”
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.9205, holding a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.6104. The price action staying over this short-term EMA suggests underlying demand is intact, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 59.6 keeps a constructive tone without yet entering overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA clustered near 95.6104, where buyers are likely to defend the current upswing if a pullback unfolds. Looking up, the pair would aim to revisit the all-time high near 97.00 if it manages a decisive break above 96.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- GBP/USD softens to near 1.3210 in Friday’s early European session.
- The pair retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA amid an oversold RSI condition.
- The immediate resistance level is located at 1.3215; the initial support level to watch is 1.3140.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3210 during the early European session on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid growing domestic fiscal concerns ahead of the upcoming UK budget.
The UK Office for National Statistics showed earlier this week that UK public sector borrowing hit £18.27 billion in August, exceeding the market forecast of £15.35 billion a year prior and £2.04 billion in July. The August reading was higher than expected. The cumulative deficit from April to August reaches £77.3 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's projection by £8.1 billion.
UK Chancellor John Healey will face pressure to raise taxes or cut spending at next month’s budget, as soaring borrowing costs because of the Iran war and weaker growth have wiped nearly £12 billion off the UK government’s fiscal headroom.
Markets are pricing in a 67% odds of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November, with another increase expected in December, according to LSEG data.
Pound softens as BoE signals greater willingness to tighten on persistent energy pressures
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the Pound is trading weaker, with “the GBP is softer, in line with its core currency peers.” They add that policy messaging from the BoE remains a key driver, highlighting that BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli “will warn that tighter policy in increasingly likely if energy prices remain high, an advance copy of her comments to be delivered shortly indicate.” This combination of softer GBP price action and firmer BoE rhetoric underscores the market’s sensitivity to the path of energy costs and the central bank’s evolving reaction function.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keeps a bearish vibe amid oversold condition
In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds below the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bearish as price remains compressed under a dense cluster of overhead levels. The latest Bollinger lower band sits just above spot, underscoring that the recent slide is pressing against the lower volatility envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 24 signals oversold conditions that could slow immediate downside, rather than reverse it outright.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day Bollinger lower band near 1.3215, a minor pivot just above the current price. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the July 28 low of 1.3273, en route to the 100-day SMA at 1.3425 and the Bollinger middle band at 1.3438 form a broader cap. The Bollinger upper band at 1.3660 marks a more distant barrier.
On the other hand, the June 24 low of 1.3140 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. Any follow-though selling below this level could pave the way to the November 21, 2025 low of 1.3038, followed by the November 5, 2025 low of 1.3010.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,168.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,184.71 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 153,596.50 per tola from INR 153,783.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,168.65 |
10 Grams | 131,686.80 |
Tola | 153,596.50 |
Troy Ounce | 409,602.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- WTI attracts some sellers during the Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak.
- Easing supply concerns weigh on the commodity, though the downside seems limited.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – extends the previous day's late pullback from the $95.80 area and drifts lower through the Asian session on Friday. The black liquid, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak and currently trades just below the $92.00 mark, down 2.0% for the day.
Median reports suggested that US and Iran negotiators are exploring a phased path out of the conflict that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran. This, in turn, helps ease supply concerns and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on crude oil prices. That said, a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia keeps geopolitical risks elevated and could act as a tailwind for the commodity.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices maintain a constructive near-term tone above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September rally. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator turns positive with a rising histogram, suggesting improving bullish momentum even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 47.
Hence, any further slide is more likely to find decent support at the 200-period SMA, near $88.99, which is closely followed by the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $88.59. Deeper pullbacks could meet additional demand at the 50.0% level at $84.47 and progressively lower retracements toward $80.35, $74.48, and $67.01. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 23.6% Fibo. level at $93.68, where a clear break would open the way to further gains toward the recent cycle highs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/JPY declines to near 111.10 in Friday’s early European session.
- The negative outlook of the cross remains intact, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 111.70; the initial support level to watch is 110.00.
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 111.10 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
US President Donald Trump shared his concerns over the Yen’s weakness during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week in New York. Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that excessive currency moves harm the economy and intervention should be kept as an option to address such volatility.
After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the policy rate to 1.25% last week, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled he was open to further tightening, saying he wouldn’t rule out a back-to-back hike in October or a larger move at some point. However, the move was viewed as insufficiently hawkish, with two officials dissenting from the decision.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have surged to a 30-year high above 3%. Traders remain reluctant to commit heavily to domestic bonds while yields are still climbing and policymakers offer few clues about how much further rates must rise.
On the Aussie front, the market is widely expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week, and Thursday’s slight unemployment increase is unlikely to stay the RBA’s hand.
US pressure on BoJ and Japan’s defence pivot sharpen focus on Yen carry trade
Analysts at Rabobank highlight what they see as intensifying US strategic pressure on Japan’s monetary stance, pointing to “the US Treasury openly pushing the ‘independent’ BoJ to end the Yen Carry Trade via rate hikes, threatening a perfect storm for some assets, in exchange for a strong JPY, cheaper commodity imports, and more Japanese domestic investment into defence industries” as a key example of this shift. They add that the broader geopolitical backdrop is becoming more sensitive for Tokyo, noting that, as the Financial Times warns in a related context on middle powers, “The threat of appearing as a vassal state is growing ever more real for middle powers.”
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is closer to the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41.70 hints at soft but not extreme downside momentum, reinforcing the view that rallies remain capped by overhead levels rather than signaling a fresh bullish phase.
On the topside, initial resistance level aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 111.70, en route to the 100-day SMA at 112.80. A more distant barrier emerges at the Bollinger upper band near 114.18.
On the downside, the first meaningful support is defined by the 110.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could expose the September 14 low of 109.67, followed by the lower limit of Bollinger band at 109.20. Only a sustained break above the 100-day SMA would start to relieve the prevailing bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/JPY is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 42.47 indicates lingering downside pressure.
- A rebound above the nine-day EMA could trigger a bullish reversal toward the 50-day EMA at 182.31.
EUR/JPY has pared back its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 180.10 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross continues to trade within a descending channel pattern, pointing to a persistent bearish outlook.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price sits directly on the nine-day EMA, turning it into a short-term pivot, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.47 remains below the neutral 50 mark, which suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12. A successful break below the short-term price average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 177.00, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
On the upside, a rebound above the nine-day EMA could cause the bullish reversal and support the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 182.31. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.80, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.06% | -0.27% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.36% | -0.01% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.33% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.36% | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.26% | 0.45% | 0.44% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.37% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.26% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.45% | -0.08% | -0.18% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.44% | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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