Forex News
- EUR/USD scales higher for the third day as receding Fed hike bets keep the USD depressed.
- Geopolitical risks and inflation fears stemming from volatile oil prices could limit USD losses.
- Traders now look forward to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for some meaningful impetus.
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's bounce from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark and attracts follow-through buyers for the third straight day. The momentum lifts spot prices to a two-month high during the Asian session, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 1.1600 round figure before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near the lower end of the monthly range as Friday's weak US data further tempered bets for an immediate rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales fell 0.6% in July, marking the biggest monthly fall since May last year and pointing to a slowdown in consumer spending. This comes on top of signs of moderating price pressures, which gives the US central bank headroom to keep interest rates steady.
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the “steepening US 2/30s yield curve, which has reached 108bps, reflects simmering investor concern about the Fed policy outlook alongside weak US fiscal dynamics.” They argue that this “steepening yield curve represents a further headwind for the USD generally,” reinforcing their view that “near-term risks are geared towards the DXY slipping back to the mid-98 area.”
The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver one final 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at its September meeting as inflation remains above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Apart from this, inflation fears stemming from volatile oil prices might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the USD. This, in turn, might cap any further near-term appreciating move for the EUR/USD pair.
The market focus now shifts to the release of FOMC Minutes, due on Wednesday, which will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. The outlook will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and producing short-term trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into and remain limited.
EUR/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair holds just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June downfall but the broader tone remains capped beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1630. This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.1645. A daily close above this cluster should open the way toward 1.1732 and 1.1843. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 50% retracement at 1.1584 and a break below there would expose the 38.2% level at 1.1522, ahead of deeper support at 1.1447 and 1.1324.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- AUD/JPY gathers strength to around 113.00 in Monday’s early European session.
- Japan's economy expanded annually by 1.1% in Q2, weaker than expected.
- The cross holds a constructive bullish bias while holding above the 100-day SMA.
- The first downside target emerges at 112.21; the immediate resistance level is seen at 113.88.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 113.00 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid weaker-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Japanese GDP for the second quarter (Q2) expanded at an annualised 1.1%, according to the Cabinet Office on Monday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 2.0% and the first quarter’s reading of 1.8% growth, compared to a 0.5% growth recorded in Q1 and missed market expectations of a 0.5% expansion.
"The details were a mixed bag," Capital Economics analysts wrote in a research note. "GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q2, and with the government still limiting the pass-through from higher energy prices," they wrote, while a jump in government consumption "suggests that Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policies are starting to have an impact."
Traders await the release of the Australian July employment report on Thursday ahead of Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. Economists expect the Unemployment Rate in Australia to rise to 4.5% in July from 4.4% in June. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Aussie against the JPY.
Japan data in focus as Deutsche Bank flags solid Q2 growth and firmer inflation
Economists at Deutsche Bank highlight a busy week for Japan, with “key economic data” due including Q2 GDP on Monday and the national CPI on Friday. For GDP, the bank notes that its Chief Japan Economist expects “real GDP to grow at +1.6% QoQ,” while on prices he “forecasts core CPI ex. fresh food to rise to 1.8% YoY from 1.6% in June and core-core inflation ex. fresh food and energy to increase to 1.8% (1.7%).” The bank directs clients to “see more in his full week-ahead” for additional detail.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a mildly positive momentum tone in the near term
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as it sits above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average. The clustering of these supports just beneath spot suggests dips are being absorbed, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 54 keeps a mildly positive momentum tone without yet signalling overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 8 low of 112.21, followed by the August 10 low of 111.63. The next contention level is seen at the lower Bollinger band near 110.00, which acting as a deeper bearish target if selling accelerates.
On the topside, the immediate resistance to watch is the July 16 high of 113.88, en route to the July 27 high of 114.67. A clear break would open the door to the upper Bollinger band at 115.35.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Indian Rupee may face downward pressure following the RBI’s decision to end its FCNR deposit FX swap early.
- USD/INR is projected to trade between 95.00 and 95.50 this week amid expected pre-August 31 FCNR deposit demand.
- The US Dollar declines as weaker-than-expected US economic data faded Fed rate hike odds.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades stronger against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after two days of losses, with the USD/INR pair trading around 95.50 at the time of writing. However, the Indian Rupee (INR) may struggle in the coming period, potentially driving the pair higher, following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) announcement to shut its FX swap facility for FCNR deposits a month ahead of schedule. Data released alongside the decision highlighted that the central bank's policy measures, including the deposit swap window, successfully attracted nearly $57 billion.
Market traders expect the USD/INR pair to fluctuate between 95.00 and 95.50 this week. Some anticipate a short-term rush among overseas clients aiming to secure FX deposits before the facility officially closes on August 31, while foreign portfolio flows and routine hedging activity will further direct currency movement.
Investors will closely monitor the release of the minutes from the RBI's August policy meeting, during which interest rates were kept unchanged. Looking ahead, most analysts project that the RBI will either initiate a shallow rate-hiking cycle starting in December or maintain its pause across the remainder of 2026.
India inflation uptick supports RBI’s steady policy stance
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that India’s inflation backdrop remains broadly contained, noting that headline CPI “edged up modestly to 4.45% yoy in July from 4.38% in June,” a move they say “reinforc[es] the latest decision by the RBI to keep policy on hold.”
The USD/INR pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations. The US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June, coming in below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 5.0% in July compared to 6.8% in the previous month.
Traders have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following a slew of softer US data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Markets are now pricing in a 33.1% chance of a rate hike next month, down from 44% last week according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Fed seen keeping hawks in check as disinflation evidence builds
Strategists at Scotiabank argue that last week’s data have likely provided sufficient reassurance on the inflation front to justify a more patient stance from policymakers. They highlight that “there is likely to have been enough evidence of disinflation in last week’s data (along with signs of slowing in the labour market) to allow Fed Chairman Warsh to keep the inflation hawks at bay,” reinforcing expectations that the Fed can resist pressure for an early shift back toward a more aggressive tightening bias.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains above moving averages within ascending channel
USD/INR holds losses after two days of gains, trading around 95.50 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is remaining within the ascending channel, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias.
Additionally, the USD/INR pair holds a slight constructive bias as spot remains above both the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.4418 and the 50-period EMA at 95.3913, suggesting near-term dips are being cushioned by dynamic support.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark at 49.2, hinting at broadly balanced momentum after the recent pullback, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading around 134.6 adds a modestly supportive macro backdrop without yet translating into a clear directional breakout on the chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,495.00 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,455.97 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 157,403.00 per tola from INR 156,947.80 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,495.00 |
10 Grams | 134,949.20 |
Tola | 157,403.00 |
Troy Ounce | 419,741.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Gold attracts some follow-through buyers on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Receding Fed rate hike bets continue to undermine the USD and support the commodity.
- Geopolitical risks help limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-week low, and gains some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the momentum beyond the $4,400 mark and remains below its highest level since June 5, touched on Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.
Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck.
In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop.
Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/JPY tests the lower boundary of the rising wedge around 184.10.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 50 indicates neutral momentum.
- The initial resistance lies at its 50-day EMA near 184.49.
EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 184.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot remains within a rising wedge, signaling that the upward trend is losing momentum and that the wedge typically acts as a bearish reversal.
The EUR/JPY cross retains a constructive near-term tone as it holds above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping price supported despite last week's pullback from the highs. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests neutral momentum after the prior correction, hinting that directional conviction is still tentative while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.
The EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the lower boundary of the rising wedge around 184.10, followed by the nine-day EMA of 183.78. A decisive break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at its 50-day EMA near 184.49, followed by the upper boundary of the rising wedge around 185.80. A sustained break above the wedge could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the currency cross to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.12% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.10% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.10% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US Dollar Index declines to around 99.50 in Monday’s Asian session.
- US Retail Sales drop 0.6% MoM in July after a 0.2% gain in June.
- US-Iran talks to resolve the Middle East conflict remain stalled.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY loses momentum as data showed US Retail Sales unexpectedly declined in July.
Retail Sales in the United States (US) fell 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.2% gain in June, the US Census Bureau showed on Friday. Market consensus was for a rise of 0.1%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales arrived at 5.0% in July, versus a rise of 6.8% (revised from 6.7%).
The downbeat US Retail Sales, along with softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data last week, have tempered expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates at its September 15-16 policy meeting. Traders are now pricing in just a 31% probability of a September hike, alongside a 69% odds of a rate increase by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"Softer U.S. data over recent weeks has reduced rate hike expectations, with less than one full hike now priced for December," BNY analysts wrote. "The back end of the Treasury curve remains elevated, with some commentators attributing higher yields to credibility concerns.”
Traders will closely monitor the US conflict with Iran and efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that there were “no negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Araghchi further stated that the US must agree to Iran’s conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway.
Dollar rebound fades as markets re-engage short USD trade
Strategists at Scotiabank observe that the Dollar’s attempt to recover mid-week has quickly lost momentum, noting that “the mid-week rebound following the CPI data stalled yesterday around the PPI release and markets are once again leaning into the short dollar trade broadly amid fading expectations of a September Fed rate hike.” They suggest this renewed bias against the USD reflects investors’ growing conviction that the Fed is unlikely to tighten policy again in the near term.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index remains capped under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot holds beneath a dense belt of moving-average and volatility resistance, with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period midline capping the upside, which keeps the near-term bias tilted to the downside. The lower reading of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 reinforces a weak tone, suggesting downside pressure persists while price remains lodged under these ceilings.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA around 99.75, ahead of the Bollinger midline at 100.35, while the upper band near 101.80 marks a more distant barrier if a short-covering bounce extends. On the downside, the first notable support aligns with the lower Bollinger Band around 98.85, where volatility support could slow the decline if sellers press the index further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Silver attracts some follow-through buying on Monday amid the prevailing USD selling bias.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further appreciating move.
- A move beyond the 100-day EMA is needed to validate the near-term constructive outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) is seen building on Friday's bounce from mid-$63.00s and gaining some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to break above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and currently trades above mid-$65.00s, up around 1.50% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated as traders continue to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets amid signs of cooling US inflation and weak consumer spending. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD, and backs the case for further gains.
From a broader technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar range over the past week or so. This could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, and the recent breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall.
Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 61, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram holds in positive territory. This suggests that upside attempts could persist even as the XAG/USD struggles to make it through the 100-day EMA pivotal resistance near the $66.33 area.
The said barrier is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level at $67.93. A sustained move above the said levels would be needed to pave the way for further gains toward the mid-range Fibonacci hurdle at $72.02. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 23.6% Fibo. near $62.87, where a break would expose the lower anchor of the current swing near $54.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- AUD/USD appreciates as the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish policy stance boosts the Australian Dollar.
- SocGen analysts note the RBA maintained a hawkish tone, with Governor Bullock warning the bank would act if needed.
- US Retail Sales fell 0.6% in July, lowering market expectations for upcoming Fed rate hikes.
AUD/USD gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 0.7090 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains on the hawkish policy stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
RBA stance stays hawkish as Bullock keeps tightening option open
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a firm tone, noting that “the statement was hawkish” and that Governor Michele Bullock “declared the bank would not hesitate to act if needed,” underscoring the RBA’s readiness to tighten policy further should inflation fail to moderate as expected.
Rabobank’s strategy team remains doubtful that the RBA’s tightening cycle is complete, stressing that recent communication from Governor Bullock does not fully close the door on further action. Against this backdrop, the bank reiterates that it is “unconvinced” the current policy stance will be sufficient and therefore “continue to expect one more hike later this year.”
The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations.
US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June, coming in below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 5.0% in July compared to 6.8% in the previous month.
Traders have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following a slew of softer US data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Markets are now pricing in a 33.1% chance of a rate hike next month, down from 44% last week according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Goolsbee’s softer inflation tone nudges Dollar expectations toward a less hawkish Fed path
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a notably softer tone on inflation, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 4.6/10, well below the 6.8/10 historical average and signaling a less hawkish stance relative to the established baseline. Emphasis on “a little bit better” inflation readings, the transitory nature of tariff and oil shocks, and confidence that inflation can move back toward 2% if these fade points to growing comfort with the disinflation trend, even as the US economy is described as “steady.” Overall, the message tilts incrementally dovish at the margin, subtly lowering the perceived bar for future easing if the data cooperate.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.36 points to 134.61, indicating a modest dovish shift in perceived policy tone following the remarks. However, with the index still well above the 100 neutral line, the Fed remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the pullback, suggesting the Dollar retains underlying policy support even as markets price a slightly less aggressive stance.
- USD/CAD depreciates as a slew of softer US data led traders to dial back Fed rate hike bets.
- US Retail Sales fell 0.6% in July, lowering market expectations for upcoming Fed rate hikes.
- Elevated Middle East tensions and new US sanctions on Iran drove crude oil prices higher over the weekend.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations.
US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June, coming in below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 5.0% in July compared to 6.8% in the previous month.
Traders have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following a slew of softer US data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Markets are now pricing in a 33.1% chance of a rate hike next month, down from 44% last week according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The USD/CAD pair faces challenges as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price continues to gain for the second consecutive day, trading around $81.80 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices advance as elevated tensions in the Middle East kept markets wary of further supply disruptions. Over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon that killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander.
Oil market braces for deeper supply shortfall as Gulf outages mount
Commerzbank warns that the disruption to output in the Gulf is materially tightening the global balance, with its analysts estimating that “due to significant production losses in the Gulf region, total supply is expected to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, meaning the oil market will be significantly undersupplied this year.” Citing the latest projections from the IEA, the bank notes that “the supply deficit in the third quarter stands at 1.8 million barrels per day. This is 1 million barrels per day more than previously expected,” underscoring how quickly the perceived shortfall has widened.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender, as pressure mounts on his administration to bring the military campaign to an end. The situation remains fragile as the interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to formally expire later in the day, while negotiations to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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