Forex News
Fed Governor Lisa Cook crossed the wires, saying the right course of action is to keep rates steady due to upside risks to inflation, which is moving in the “wrong direction.”
Cooks seems open to moving in either direction, noting that if the disinflation process doesn’t resume, she is ready to raise rates. Conversely, added that she would be prepared to cut “if the labor market deteriorates.”
Key highlights:
RIGHT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO HOLD RATES STEADY
RISKS ARE TILTED TOWARD HIGHER INFLATION; INFLATION CLEARLY MOVING IN WRONG DIRECTION
PREPARED TO RAISE RATES IF EXPECTED DISINFLATION DOESN'T APPEAR IN A TIMELY MANNER
WOULD BE PREPARED TO CUT RATES IF LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES
EVEN TEMPORARY SHOCKS COULD PUSH UP INFLATION IN MEDIUM TERM
SHOCKS PUSHING UP INFLATION SHOULD IN THEORY BE TEMPORARY
AI JOB LOSS COULD PRECEDE AI JOB GAINS
OPTIMISTIC ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXPECT AI TO BOOST PRODUCTIVITY
LABOR MARKET 'LARGELY STABLE' BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE ELEVATED
AI MAY ENHANCE FINANCIAL STABILITY, IMPLICATIONS OF AI FOR CYBERSECURITY UNCLEAR
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.37% | -1.14% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.31% | -1.16% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.24% | -1.24% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.20% | -1.24% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.19% | -1.25% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.19% | -1.46% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | 1.14% | 1.16% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.25% | 1.46% | 1.29% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.17% | -1.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) released its Q1 2026 report on Wednesday, revising down 2026 GDP growth from 1.6% to 1.1%. The Mexican institution blamed a “considerably weaker” first-quarter performance, warning that investment could remain weak at least until the second half of 2026.
Banxico revised up GDP growth for 2027 from 2% to 2.1% and maintained its headline inflation projection for Q4 at 3.5%. Core inflation for the same period is projected at 3.4%, unchanged.
The Mexican central bank expects inflation to converge towards its 3% goal in the second quarter of 2027, yet noted that the risks of inflation remain tilted to the upside. Regarding monetary policy, officials noted that “it will be appropriate to maintain the interest rate at its current level.
Market’s reaction
The USD/MXN pair is trading up 0.27% as the Greenback erases some of its earlier losses. The exotic pair seems to have bottomed around 17.00, and at the time of writing, it is clearing the 20-day SMA as buyers set their sights on 17.50. Above this area lies the 200-day SMA at 17.90, ahead of the psychological 18.00 figure.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
- Iranian state media's claim of a 14-point MOU framework on the Strait of Hormuz drove a sharp selloff in both Crude benchmarks.
- The White House publicly denied the report as a fabrication, leaving traders positioned for a deal Washington won't confirm exists.
- EIA inventory data is delayed to Thursday following the Memorial Day shift, the next near-term catalyst.
Iran's state broadcaster said Wednesday that Tehran had received an initial draft of a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) framework with the United States, one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and pull US forces back from Iranian territory. Within hours the White House posted on X calling the report untrue and the MOU itself a complete fabrication. Crude markets, predictably, sold the headline and ignored the denial. Brent shed roughly 3% to trade close to $93.00 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped nearly 4% to around $90.00. The market has decided peace is imminent. The principals to that peace can't agree the document exists.
A framework that can't be verified
The optimism is curious. Even by the most generous reading of the leaked terms, the MOU is a one-page outline that defers every difficult question, particularly Iranian nuclear enrichment, to a 60-day negotiation window. Tehran's media is framing the document as American capitulation. Washington insists no such document is binding. The two sides haven't reached an MOU, they're arguing about whether one was even drafted. Pricing a war's end on that basis isn't analysis, it's hope.
The plumbing won't reopen overnight
Even granting that a deal materializes this week, the Strait of Hormuz doesn't simply reopen the day a memo is signed. Iran has mined the strait, and de-mining is measured in weeks. Tankers trapped in port need to evacuate. The US would have to lift its blockade in coordinated stages. The International Energy Agency's latest read shows global oil stocks drew by roughly 250 million barrels across March and April, with OECD on-land inventories alone plummeting by 146 million barrels in April. The supply side cannot be repaired in a fortnight. Today's price action treats it like it can.
Brent leans on its rising daily 200 EMA
The technical picture reflects what the fundamentals don't quite justify. Brent has retraced almost the entirety of its May rally, trading near $93.00 against the daily 50 EMA close to $98.00 and a rising 200 EMA around $82.00. That lower line aligns roughly with where prices traded before the conflict escalated in late February, marking the cleaner structural floor for a full premium unwind. A break beneath the $92.00 handle on a daily close opens the door to a faster move toward the high $80s. To the upside, the $96.50 zone and the $100.00 handle stand as obvious resistance, levels that any reignition of strikes would clear quickly. Stoch RSI is rolling off oversold on the intraday chart, hinting at a near-term technical bounce, but daily momentum remains decisively bearish.
Trading framework
Directional bias leans lower while the peace narrative holds, but the asymmetry favors fading the selloff into structural support rather than chasing it. A daily close above $96.50 invalidates the bearish read and reopens $100.00. A break of $92.00 targets the high $80s. Treat any further framework "leak" or counter-denial as an intraday catalyst. Headlines, not technicals, will set the next leg.
EIA inventories, Thursday's print
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report is delayed to Thursday at 14:30 GMT this week following the Memorial Day holiday shift. Last week's release showed US commercial crude inventories drawing by 1.3 million barrels, with stocks roughly 4% below the five-year average. A larger draw amid the supply disruption would offer a brief bid, though any print will likely be overwhelmed by the next headline out of the US-Iran channel.
WTI 5-minute chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
BNY’s Geoff Yu says APAC’s hawkish rate surprises, including Sri Lanka’s 100 bp hike, have failed to revive front-end fixed income flows. Sub-1y flows remain negative, while higher US rate expectations and import bills keep IDR, INR and North Asia FX under pressure.
Front-end flows weak despite APAC hikes
"Sri Lanka’s central bank decision rarely commands much attention, but yesterday’s 100bp hike to 8.75% (vs. expectations of 50bp) marks another hawkish surprise in South and Southeast Asia – a region grappling with supply pressures and weakening currencies. The country has suffered severe balance-of-payments challenges in the past, and the central bank is clearly seeking to shore up flows without expending limited reserves."
"The recent round of hawkish surprises in APAC has not helped the carry trade materially. Currency pressures aside, front-end flows into APAC fixed income have not been strong. The sub-1y part of the curve – the segment most closely tied to liquidity preference, as in carry trades – has been negative on a weekly smoothed basis since early April and shows no sign of reversal."
"Coupled with headline price risks from food and other imported primary goods, central banks may need to move more aggressively to help stabilize currencies. The Bank of Japan is expected to lead the way."
"With U.S. rate expectations also shifting higher, APAC will likely continue to struggle in front-end fixed income: IDR and INR offer yield potential but are weighed down by balance-of-payments stress. For larger, savings-heavy North Asia economies, higher import bills are weighing on FX performance, while policymakers remain reluctant to raise rates: China’s medium-term lending rate has fallen to a new low despite an evident shift toward PPI- and CPI-driven inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver breaks below the 50-day SMA, confirming bearish technical pressure.
- RSI points lower, signaling sellers are gaining downside momentum.
- Break below $73.09 exposes $70.87 and the 200-day SMA support.
Silver (XAG/USD) price drops nearly 2.80% on Wednesday as it breaks the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75.77, which opened the door to clear the $75.00 mark. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $74.74, after reaching a daily low of $73.44.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The white metal is poised to consolidate further below an ascending channel's upslope support trendline and beneath the 50-day SMA. In addition to this, breaching the $75.00 psychological level cleared the way for a move lower.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish in mid-May, pointing downwards, suggesting sellers are gaining momentum.
Should Silver slip below the May 19 low of $73.09, the next stop would be the April 29 low of $70.86. Below this level lies the 200-day SMA at $65.59, ahead of the yearly low of $61.02.
Above, the first resistance for XAG/USD is $75.00, followed by the 50-day SMA at $76.00. If hurdled, the next stop would be the 20-day SMA at $77.61.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
TD Securities analysts highlight that United States (US) consumer confidence from the Conference Board slipped only marginally in May and continues to outperform other sentiment gauges. They note, however, that persistent conflict in Iran and elevated gasoline prices are likely to weigh on confidence ahead, with survey details showing weaker buying plans, a softer labour differential and respondents increasingly focused on prices, Oil and geopolitical risks.
Consumer sentiment diverges but may soften
"Consumer confidence continues its trend of upside surprises, declining only slightly to 93.1 in May from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April (TD: 90.5, cons: 92.0). The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence has diverged in recent months from both UMich and Morning Consult. We believe that as the Iran conflict persists and gasoline prices remain high, consumer confidence is likely to eventually move lower."
"Consumers' assessment of the labor market in May continued back on its downtrend, with the labor differential declining to 6.9. This is in line with the declining job finding expectations in the NY Fed survey as well."
"Buying plans in the report moved lower while inflation expectations remained high. Despite the more modest decline in the headline, the Iran shock is being felt by consumers."
"According to the Conference Board, "Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in May. References to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict remained elevated—likely signaling consumers’ underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets.""
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US Dollar Index rebounds as conflicting signals surrounding US-Iran negotiations limit downside pressure on the Greenback.
- The White House rejects Iranian state media reports of a draft US-Iran agreement.
- Traders await the US PCE inflation report due on Thursday for fresh clues on inflation trends and the Fed’s interest rate path.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, reverses earlier losses on Wednesday as traders digest the latest developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the index is trading around 99.25 after rebounding from an intraday low near 98.97.
Earlier in the day, the US Dollar came under pressure after Iran’s State TV reported that Tehran and Washington had prepared an initial unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU). However, sentiment later shifted after the United States rejected the Iranian media reports, calling the alleged interim peace deal draft “a complete fabrication.”
While diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain ongoing, recent developments suggest progress may be slower than markets had initially anticipated earlier this week after reports indicated both sides were moving closer toward a potential agreement that could eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Adding to the cautious tone, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, “We’re not there yet on an Iran deal. We’re not satisfied with it,” while also warning, “Maybe we go back and finish it, maybe we don’t.” Separately, Trump told PBS News that Iran would not receive sanctions relief in exchange for giving up highly enriched uranium.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “I think there has been progress towards an agreement. We’ll see in the next few hours, days.” Rubio added, “Trump’s preference is to negotiate with Iran. We continue to work on Iran diplomacy.”
Despite signs of diplomatic engagement, traders remain skeptical that a final agreement can be reached in the near term, keeping pullbacks in the US Dollar limited.
Against this backdrop, the Greenback also continues to draw support from a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook. Although crude Oil prices have eased from recent highs, they remain well above pre-war levels, while the broader US macroeconomic backdrop continues to reflect resilient growth. As a result, markets expect the Fed to remain patient before shifting back toward policy easing and to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
Traders now await upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due on Thursday and speeches from several Fed officials later this week for fresh clues on the interest rate path.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US is not easing sanctions on Iran and that the US would not unfreeze Iranian assets. He added that he is “not comfortable with Russia or China taking Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.”
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, he said that it would be open to everyone, that no one would control it and that it would be open immediately.
Trump commented that the US-Iran deal has to be perfect and that there’s an understanding with Iran.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.49% | -0.95% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.38% | -1.02% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.30% | -1.11% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.31% | -1.10% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.30% | -1.09% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.38% | -0.30% | -0.31% | -0.30% | -1.39% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | 0.95% | 1.02% | 1.11% | 1.10% | 1.09% | 1.39% | 1.14% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.23% | -1.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights strong flows into EM food producers as supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and higher fertilizer and energy costs push food prices up policymakers’ agendas. Australia, Brazil and Argentina are seen benefiting via commodity exports, though BNY warns that government intervention and price caps could limit margin expansion in staples.
Food inflation supports EM staples flows
"Even if a settlement is reached – and the Strait of Hormuz reopens – certain supply challenges will continue to affect global headline inflation through the rest of the year. The implications for policymaking and asset allocation are substantial."
"Food prices are moving swiftly up the agenda: According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 20%–30% of global fertilizer exports transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict. The region also produces significant amounts of energy byproducts used in fertilizer production elsewhere, all of which transit the Strait of Hormuz."
"Climate pressures in the coming months are also expected to raise food production costs, with knock-on effects on supply and final prices. In its rate hike last month, the Philippine central bank noted that “higher global oil and fertilizer prices have begun feeding through to domestic fuel and food prices.” We expect to hear similar statements across EM, where food insecurity is more acute."
"The conflict has mostly generated positive terms of trade shocks for “geographically unexposed” energy exporters, but we expect food and soft commodities to begin performing as well. For economies such as Australia and Brazil, whose export baskets comprise both groups, industrial commodities and energy will drive the bulk of adjustment."
"If global inflation continues to pick up, the staples sector is expected to benefit in a defensive sense. That said, the risk of government intervention is high – see the recent U.K. initiative asking supermarkets for voluntary price caps – and margin expansion should not be assumed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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