Forex News
TD Securities strategists see USD/JPY consolidating around 157.00 in Q2 2026 after the recent Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention triggered a 3% drop. They argue that markets now treat 160.00 as a line in the sand, capping upside and deterring fresh longs, while the pair is expected to retrace pre‑intervention levels more slowly than in past episodes.
Consolidation with 160.00 acting as cap
"USD/JPY dropped 3% last Thursday on MoF intervention."
"With markets now treating 160.00 as an implicit line in the sand, the upside in USD/JPY looks increasingly capped, which should deter speculators from re-engaging in long USDJPY."
"We also expect it to take longer to retrace back to pre-intervention levels than in prior episodes: historically, the MoF has leaned against speculative, volatile moves rather than defending a precise spot level."
"After last week's JPY intervention, path of least resistance for USD/JPY is likely a consolidation around our Q2 forecast of 157.00."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Deutsche Bank analysts report that the S&P 500 slipped from record highs as higher Oil prices and rising Treasury yields weighed on risk assets. The index fell 0.41%, with broad-based declines across sectors except Energy, though Technology remained relatively resilient and the S&P 500 is still more than 13% above its late‑March low.
Equities retreat as rates and oil rise
"The S&P 500 (-0.41%) also slipped from Friday’s record highs, and while S&P futures are edging +0.13% higher overnight, the Asian markets that are trading today are overwhelmingly in the red."
"The higher oil and rates backdrop weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 retreating by -0.41% from Friday’s record high in a broad-based decline that saw 70% of S&P constituents lower on the day."
"Industrials (-1.17%) and materials (-1.57%) stocks led the decline, while energy (+0.85%) stocks were the only major sector to advance. Tech stocks also showed some resilience, with the NASDAQ (-0.19%) and the Mag-7 (+0.04%) little changed on the day."
"With tech stocks leading strong Q1 earnings growth in the US, the S&P 500 is +13.5% above its low on March 30, even as Treasury yields and longer-dated oil futures have reached new post-Iran war highs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that ICE Brent has surged as renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf raises concerns over supply disruptions. They highlight resumed Iranian attacks on regional infrastructure and stress that guidance of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom” may only offer temporary relief. The report suggests markets could remain sensitive to further escalation.
Middle East tensions underpin Brent
"We are seeing the first signs of the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaking down amid a re-escalation in the Persian Gulf. ICE Brent rallied 5.8% yesterday to settle above $114/bbl. The US struck a number of Iranian boats."
"In addition, Iran has resumed attacks on infrastructure in neighbouring countries, with the UAE intercepting several Iranian missiles, while Fujairah port was hit by a drone. This port is important for UAE oil exports. It is situated outside the Strait of Hormuz, which allowed oil exports to continue (and, in fact, to increase) despite the war and blockade of the Strait."
"This re-escalation comes at a time when the US has started guiding commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, under “Project Freedom”. Two US-flagged commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the plan, according to the US. Clearly, continuation of “Project Freedom” risks further escalation."
"Markets may find some relief today following President Trump’s overnight comments suggesting the conflict could continue for another two to three weeks. However, markets are likely to view this with considerable scepticism, given the recent escalation and the repeated extensions of projected timelines for ending hostilities since the conflict began."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights renewed weakness in Silver as Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices weigh on risk sentiment. The bank notes Silver’s more fragile profile versus Gold, with soft momentum after a failed breakout and rallies likely to be sold unless USD, US Treasury yields and risk sentiment improve. Downside risks dominate with key supports and resistances mapped out.
Geopolitics and soft momentum pressure silver
"Silver fell again, snapping two sessions of gains, as renewed escalation in the Middle East weighed on broader risk sentiment."
"The move reinforces silver’s more fragile and volatile setup versus gold. While geopolitical uncertainty can support precious metals, silver is also exposed to the growth and industrial-demand linkages."
"With oil prices elevated and markets wary that inflation risks could keep the Fed cautious, silver struggled to find support. "
"Near term, momentum remains soft after the failed break higher, with rallies likely to be faded unless USD, US Treasury yields and risk sentiment turn more supportive."
"Daily momentum is mild bearish while the recent rise in RSI moderated. Risks are skewed to downside."
"Immediate support at 70, 63.50 (200 DMA). Break below those levels risk deeper pullback towards 50. Resistance at 75 (21 DMA), 78/80 (50, 100 DMAs)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/INR appreciates as the US Dollar gains on increased risk aversion amid Middle East concerns.
- Modi’s BJP won a third term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
- India’s forex reserves fell from $728.5 billion, while equity outflows hit $19 billion in March and April.
USD/INR extends gains for the third successive day, trading around the fresh record high of 95.40, during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders will likely observe India’s HSBC Composite and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to be released on Wednesday.
The USD/INR pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven demand following Iran’s attack on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). CNBC reported Monday that the UAE was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, while the US said it destroyed Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets US ships protecting commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faced challenges as an overnight surge in crude oil prices dampened investor sentiment. Oil prices, however, have since declined as concerns over immediate supply disruptions eased, with the United States (US) Navy taking steps to reopen the crucial Strait after Iran attempted to close it. Maersk, a Danish shipping and logistics company, later confirmed that its Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier, exited the strait under US military escort.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched a third straight term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
On Monday, HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in India came in at 54.7 for April, revised down from the preliminary 55.9 but higher than 53.9 in the prior month. Both output and new orders continued to expand, though growth remained subdued relative to levels seen over the past three and a half years.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) turned net buyers of Indian equities on Monday after nine consecutive days of selling, with inflows totaling 28.36 billion rupees ($298 million). Domestic institutional investors (DII) bought local shares worth 47.64 billion rupees, marking their seventh straight session of purchases, per Reuters.
Stock-specific moves linked to earnings are also expected to remain in focus. Nifty 50 constituents Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra and Mahindra, and Hero MotoCorp are scheduled to announce their quarterly results later in the day.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have declined from a peak of $728.5 billion, while equity outflows reached $19 billion across March and April. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated that it remains comfortable with reserve levels sufficient to cover 11 months of imports, though recent policy discussions highlight renewed urgency to strengthen buffers amid ongoing capital outflows.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR nears rectangular channel top, all-time highs near 95.50
USD/INR trades around 95.40 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bullish emergence as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.7 points to firm positive momentum edging toward overbought territory, suggesting upside pressure persists while leaving the pair vulnerable to bouts of consolidation if buyers lose traction.
The USD/INR pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangle, followed by the all-time high of 95.40, which was recorded on May 4. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.71. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.20, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
(The story was corrected on May 5 at 6:10 GMT to say in the first paragraph to say that the HSBC PMI data will be released on Wednesday, not Tuesday.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.11% | 0.04% | -0.01% | |
| INR | -0.14% | -0.25% | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.15% | 0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Michael Wan at MUFG highlights that the Indian Rupee entered the Iran conflict period already facing strong capital outflows, shaping its vulnerability. The Reserve Bank of India is reportedly considering measures to attract Dollar inflows, including a possible FCNR swap scheme and tax changes. MUFG projects USD/INR in a 95.00–96.00 range over 12 months, implying continued Rupee underperformance.
Rupee pressures and RBI support options
"Overall, the key message from us is that the starting point matters for the impact to each currency including in Asia, beyond just the direct sensitivity of the Strait of Hormuz and linkages to oil prices and energy shortages."
"On this front, the likes of the Indian Rupee and to a smaller extent Vietnam Dong were already facing strong capital outflows to begin the Iran conflict, and our continued bias is to as such see INR underperform across a range and distributions of scenarios."
"We had news reports from Reuters yesterday that the RBI is considering measures to attract more Dollar inflows, and among other steps the 2013 FCNR swap scheme coupled with elimination of withholding tax on overseas government bond investors are possible ways to support the Indian Rupee."
"We see USD/INR trading between the 95.00 to 96.00 over the next 12 months, implying continued FX underperformance."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD extends losses for the third consecutive day and consolidates below 1.1700.
- Investors' fears of the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran have crushed risk appetite.
- The pair approaches a key support area below 1.1675.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day, as investors' concerns about the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran have crushed risk appetite. The pair trades around 1.1680 at the time of writing and approaches a key resistance area between 1.1645 and 1.1675.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to free vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz stirred the hornet's nest on Monday. At least one ship has been reported crossing the waterway, scorted by US military, but several others have reported fires and explosions, and Iranian missiles hit an Oil port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that hosts a military base.
These skirmishes are keeping investors on edge about a full resumption of the conflict, while Oil prices remain well above the $100 level. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades at $101.40 at the time of writing, and the Brent Oil at $111.58, approaching four-year highs at $114.30. These prices put Eurozone Crude-importing economies under significant pressure and pose a strong weight on the Euro.
Later in the day, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in Frankfurt and might give further details about the central bank’s monetary tightening calendar. In the US, the S&P Global and, a few hours later, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) will be the main focus on Tuesday ahead of April’s jobs reports due later this week.
Technical Analysis: A retest of the 1.1645-1.1675 support area is on the cards
EUR/USD is showing a growing bearish momentum, with price action nearing the support area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which has held downside attempts several times in April.
Momentum indicators are deepening within bearish territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives to around 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) drifts into negative territory with a mildly bearish tone, suggesting that upside attempts may continue to struggle.
The mentioned support area above 1.1645, however, is likely to pose a significant challenge for bears. A clear break below that area would confirm a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern, with a measured target just below April lows in the 1.1500 area.
On the upside, Friday's low, at 1.1715, might act as resistance ahead of the April 20 and May 1 highs in the area between 1.1785 and 1.1795, and the April 17 high, near 1.1850.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- AUD/USD weakens to around 0.7145 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- RBA has delivered a third consecutive interest rate hike, raising the OCR to 4.35%.
- The positive tone of the pair prevails above the key 100-days EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The initial support level to watch is 0.7110; the first upside barrier is seen at 0.7230.
The AUD/USD pair declines to near 0.7145 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains weak despite a widely expected 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35% from 4.10% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting. According to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the central bank noted a significant increase in uncertainty over the domestic economic outlook and inflation.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the current monetary policy is "a bit restrictive," providing the board space to monitor how the Middle East conflict and domestic data evolve.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as spot sits essentially on the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average, keeping the short-term trend supported after the recent pullback from this week’s highs. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains well below price and reinforces the broader upswing, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 54 suggests moderately positive but not overstretched momentum.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the Bollinger mid-line at the April 30 low of 0.7110, followed by the lower Bollinger band near 0.7060 and then the 100-day EMA at 0.6963, where a deeper correction would be expected to attract dip buyers. On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band around 0.7230, and a clean break above this ceiling would strengthen the bullish tone and open the way for a continuation of the broader advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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