Forex News
ING’s Lynn Song notes that stronger China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data in April, alongside resilient exports, reinforce a reflation narrative that reduces urgency for People’s Bank of China (PBoC) easing. While domestic demand remains soft and the next policy move is still expected to be a cut, ING now sees this likely pushed into the second half of 2026.
Reflation and exports ease policy pressure
"We saw in the weekend data that China's trade growth beat expectations again in April, with both exports and imports surpassing market forecasts."
"Assuming we do not see a timely fall in energy prices, these higher input costs for producers will likely feed through the broader economy in the coming months, fuelling the reflation narrative but also beginning to drag on growth."
"This start to the year, combined with the recent reflation momentum, will likely keep the People’s Bank of China on pause for now."
"Unlike many central banks globally, China's next move remains more likely to be a cut than a hike."
"It looks increasingly likely that such a move won't happen until at least the second half of the year, barring a significantly sharper-than-expected deterioration in activity data ahead."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- XAG/USD soars toward a two-month high as bullish momentum remains intact.
- Break above $90 opens the door to test $100.
- Close below the 100-day SMA risks a pullback toward $77.19 support.
Silver (XAG/USD) price rallies over 7% on Monday, clearing key technical resistance at $83.05, the April 17 daily high, and also the $85.00 psychological figure, which opened the door towards the $86.00 per troy ounce handle, its highest level in the last two months.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Price action shows the white metal is exploding higher, with buyers aiming to challenge $90.00. Bullish momentum increased sharply as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) spiked nearly to overbought territory, an indication that further upside is expected.
Overhead, resistance is the March 10 daily high at $90.03. The move above will expose the March 2 swing high of $96.62 and open the door towards challenging the $100.00 figure.
Downwards, traders could challenge $83.05, a previous resistance turned support. A breach of the latter and a move to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $80.22 is on the cards. Below here, the next support is the 50-day SMA at $77.04.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(This story was corrected on May 11 at 21:50 GMT to say that a break above $90 opens the door to test $100, not $82.12 and $83.05)
Societe Generale analysts observe USD/CNY trading below 6.80, with the Chinese Yuan at its strongest level since February 2023 ahead of the US/China summit. They attribute Yuan outperformance to safe-haven demand and solid trade data, while expecting only incremental outcomes from Trump’s visit, focused on trade discipline and limited confidence-building steps.
Safe-haven flows and trade surplus
"The Chinese yuan trades at the strongest level since February 2023, returning below 6.80/USD ahead of this week’s US/China summit. The outperformance of the Yuan in EM Asia this year has been more about China’s rising status as a safe-haven amid the geopolitical and energy storm."
"Foreign trade data also continue to support the currency. Exports climbed 14.1% yoy, lifting the surplus to $84.82bn in April."
"The visit of Trump is relatively low on expectations, underscored by a scaled‑down CEO delegation compared to 2017 and late invites that reflect internal policy divisions. The agenda will prioritize trade discipline and a possible short extension of the October trade truce, rather than headline‑grabbing deal announcements."
"China will likely press for relief from US technology export controls and greater policy certainty, while Washington is set to hold the line, keeping outcomes incremental while Iran and rare earth exports from China may also be discussed."
"Commercially, discussions may centre on narrow, symbolic deliverables, notably a prospective Boeing aircraft order, pointing to modest confidence‑building steps rather than a reset in bilateral ties."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, May 12:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm near the 97.95 region as investors remain cautious despite some improvement in overall market sentiment and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors reacted after United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” Traders are now shifting focus toward Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.35% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.11% | 0.28% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | 0.16% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.17% | -0.17% | -0.20% | -0.07% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | -0.28% | -0.17% | -0.33% | -0.37% | -0.25% | -0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.33% | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.37% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.25% | -0.03% | -0.11% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.18% | -0.24% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rebounded toward the 1.1780 region, benefiting from a slightly softer US Dollar (USD) amid reduced defensive positioning. The pair also finds support from improving risk appetite and expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may remain cautious about cutting rates too aggressively.
GBP/USD advances near the 1.3615 area, supported by stabilizing market sentiment and modest USD consolidation.
USD/JPY trades near the 157.20 zone, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) losing ground due to Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal, which will further impact Oil supply.
AUD/USD climbs toward the 0.7250 region as improving risk sentiment boosts demand for commodity-linked currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains elevated near the $98.00 per barrel mark as markets continue to monitor tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential risks to global energy supplies.
Gold rises toward the $4,730 region, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and cautious positioning ahead of the US CPI release.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, May 12:
- AU May Westpac Consumer Confidence
- EU April HICPs
- DE May ZEW Survey Current Situation; DE May ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment
- AU Budget Release
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US April CPIs; US April Core CPIs
- US April Monthly Budget Statement
- JP March Current Account n.s.a.
Wednesday, May 13:
- AU Q1 Wage Price Index QoQ
- NZ Q2 RBNZ Inflation Expectations QoQ
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY
- EU Q1 Employment Change QoQ Prel
- EU Q1 GDP s.a. QoQ Prel; EU Q1 GDP s.a. YoY Prel
- EU March Industrial Production s.a. MoM
- US April PPIs; US April Core PPIs
Thursday, May 14:
- AU May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- UK March GDP MoM; UK Q1 GDP QoQ Prel; UK Q1 GDP YoY Prel
- UK March Industrial Production MoM; UK March Manufacturing Production MoM
- DE April HICP YoY
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US April Retail Sales MoM; US April Retail Sales Control Group; US April Retail Sales ex Autos MoM
- NZ April Business NZ PMI
Friday, May 15:
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY; FR April CPI YoY
- US May NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- US April Industrial Production MoM
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying revises Taiwan’s policy rate outlook after upgrading 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. The team now expects an additional 12.5 bps hike in 3Q, taking the policy discount rate to 2.125%. Tieying sees the central bank on hold in June, with rising Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) price indices pointing to stronger inflation pressures later in 2026.
DBS adds 3Q rate hike for Taiwan
"Following our earlier upward revision of 2026 GDP and CPI forecasts (to 9.4% and 1.9%, respectively), we also revise our interest rate forecast, adding one 12.5bps rate hike in 3Q, which would lift the policy discount rate from 2.00% to 2.125%. Recent data suggest that the central bank is likely to remain on hold at the June policy meeting."
"Looking ahead, however, tightening pressure is likely to build in 2H as pipeline inflation pressures continue to rise."
"These leading indicators suggest that headline CPI could rise above 2% from May onward and reach around 2.5% by mid-year."
"Some pass-through into core inflation is also likely, potentially pushing core CPI toward 2.5% in 2H."
"Taiwan’s central bank remains vigilant against second-round inflation effects stemming from higher energy costs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNP Paribas economists note Chinese GDP growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, after 5% in 2025, and expects a moderate slowdown in 2026. They highlight a K-shaped pattern with strong exports but weak domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress. Authorities are seen maintaining modest fiscal and monetary support as deflationary pressures ease in 2026.
K-shaped growth with modest policy support
"Economic growth accelerated to +5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, vs. +4.5% in Q4 2025."
"It stood at 5% in 2025 as a whole and it is expected to slow moderately in 2026."
"Growth remains characterized by a K-shaped trajectory."
"The authorities will maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, but their measures will continue to be modest, even in a less supportive global environment."
"Deflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2026, notably thanks to higher global energy prices and anti-involution measures implemented by the authorities."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Trump weighs military action after rejecting Tehran’s ceasefire demands.
- WTI jumps as Hormuz risks revive inflation concerns.
- Traders await the US CPI and PPI for Fed clues.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances modestly by 0.30% on Monday as the Iran-US conflict resolution stalls following Tehran’s proposal, which was disregarded by US President Donald Trump, who said that it was “totally unacceptable.” At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,726 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,648.
XAU/USD climbs as Iran tensions lift Oil and haven demand
Developments during the Asian and European sessions pushed Oil prices higher, yet bullion held to its gains, even though the Greenback is positive on the trading session.
Iran demanded compensation for war damage, the control of the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing funds and ending the US Navy blockade. Tehran’s response omitted the delivery of nuclear stockpiles to the US, hugely demanded by Trump, who said that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb.
Axios reported that Trump is meeting with its national security council, according to US officials who said that the President is evaluating the resumption of military action.
Fears of an escalation prompted traders to push US crude Oil prices up by 3.60%, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $98.09 per barrel. The Greenback followed suit, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.10% at 97.94.
Data-wise, Existing Home Sales in the US edged up 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Traders' eyes are on US inflation data for April this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
Fed to hold rates unchanged in 2026
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Macro Strategy, Matt Hornbach, said the bank does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026. Data from Prime Terminal shows that Morgan Stanley’s view aligns with money market participants, who expect the US central bank to remain on hold this year.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold to remain sideways, below $4,750
From a technical standpoint, Gold is poised to consolidate further, trapped between key technical resistance and support levels, as momentum remains flat, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI, although bullish, is flatlined.
On the upside, XAU/USD must clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,769. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 100-day SMA at $4,772, ahead of the $4,800 milestone.
On the downside, Gold’s first support is the $4,700 psychological figure. A breach of the latter will expose the 20-day SMA at $4,694 ahead of challenging the May 4 swing low of $4,500.

Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note that Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) foreign reserves climbed to USD129.7bn at end-April 2026, the highest since 2014, providing a stronger buffer for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). Although the central bank’s net short FX swap position has widened, they judge it manageable and see the improved reserve position as supportive for currency stability and investor confidence.
Higher reserves bolster MYR resilience
"Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s foreign reserves rose by USD3.1bn m/m to record USD129.7bn as at end-Apr, marking the highest level since Aug 2014. Cumulatively, foreign reserves rose by USD4.2bn in Jan-Apr (vs +USD2.5bn in Jan-Apr 2025)."
"It is sufficient to finance 4.7 months of imports of goods & services and is 0.9x total short-term external debt."
"On the external front, Malaysia’s reserve position strengthened further. While BNM’s net short FX swap position widened to USD23.2bn (18.3% of reserves), this remains manageable compared to high of USD29.3bn (25.5% of reserves) in Jul 2024."
"Overall, the improved reserve position should provide confidence in Malaysia’s ability to withstand external volatility, supporting both currency stability and investor sentiment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD holds firm as opposing pressure from the US Dollar and Oil prices keeps price action range-bound.
- Fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal continue to keep geopolitical tensions elevated.
- Technically, the pair lacks bullish conviction while trading below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs on the daily chart.
USD/CAD fluctuates between minor gains and losses on Monday as the pair faces opposing pressure from a steady US Dollar (USD) and elevated Oil prices. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading nearly flat around 1.3672.
Earlier hopes for a near-term end to the US-Iran war faded after US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that he would meet with his national security team to discuss the conflict and possible military options to pressure Iran into reaching a deal.
The comments came after Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to the US-backed peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable” in a Truth Social post on Sunday.
The lingering uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement is keeping a floor under the US Dollar, while ongoing disruptions to supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep Oil prices elevated.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains particularly sensitive to movements in Oil prices, given Canada’s status as a major crude exporter. Elevated energy prices tend to support the commodity-linked Loonie and help limit upside in USD/CAD, while technical indicators suggest the pair remains stuck in a weak consolidation phase.
Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, USD/CAD is holding below both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3719 and the 200-day SMA at 1.3813, which keeps the broader tone capped after the recent pullback from April highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 48 is neutral and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 22 signals only modest trend strength, suggesting consolidation rather than an impulsive move while price remains under these key moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 100-day SMA at 1.3719, with the 200-day SMA at 1.3813 acting as the next barrier if buyers attempt a recovery. On the downside, the first notable support sits at the horizontal level near 1.3550, where a break lower would expose a deeper corrective phase, while holding above this floor would keep the pair confined to a broad range beneath the daily moving average cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.33% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.08% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.07% | 0.22% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.01% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.30% | -0.07% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.30% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.24% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.36% | -0.00% | 0.08% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.24% | -0.08% | -0.13% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | -0.13% | -0.19% | 0.11% | -0.25% | -0.27% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/JPY rises after renewed Middle East tensions support demand for the US Dollar.
- Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”
- Investors now focus on Tuesday’s US CPI report.
The USD/JPY pair elevates near the 157.10 region on Monday, with the US Dollar (USD) strenghtening after United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”
At the time of writing, the pair trades at 157.18, up 0.33% in the day after recovering from an opening bearish gap.
At the same time, the USD continued to benefit from resilient United States labor-market data released last week, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer. However, traders remained cautious ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could significantly influence market expectations for future Fed policy decisions.
A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could push US Treasury yields higher and provide fresh support for the Greenback, while softer CPI data may increase pressure on the USD and allow the JPY to strengthen further through safe-haven demand and lower yield expectations.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 157.12. The pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 156.76, keeping a mild topside bias in place even as it remains well beneath the 100-period SMA at 158.24, which continues to cap the broader recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.8 leans slightly positive, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but not an extended condition.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 157.14, followed by a nearby barrier at 157.22 before the more meaningful 100-period SMA around 158.24. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.04, with a secondary floor at 156.99; a break below these levels would expose the 20-period SMA at 156.76 as the next key support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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