Forex News
In a parliamentary election in Hungary on Sunday, Péter Magyar, leader of the nation’s center-right opposition Tisza party, defeated veteran incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a landslide victory.
With almost all votes counted, election officials said Magyar’s Tisza party is set to secure two-thirds of seats in parliament, currently winning 138 seats.
That marked the end of Orban's 16-year rule and also Hungary's adversarial role inside the European Union (EU), as per many European leaders.
Market reaction
The Hungarian Forint (HUF) is up over 1.50% in the day against the US Dollar (USD), capitalizing on the election outcome, with the USD/HUF pair miring near four-year lows of 314.58.
- The oil price jumps higher as US President Trump orders the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- US-Iran talks failed as Tehran remains stuck to pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
- Saudi Arabia restores the full pumping capacity of its East-West pipeline to seven million barrels a day.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.6% higher to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price rises after a warning from United States (US) President Donald Trump, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has instructed the navy to blockade "any or all ships trying to enter or leave" the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. This has further raised concerns over the global energy supply.
US President Trump’s threats to block the Hormuz came after talks between Iran and US Vice President (VP) JD Vance failed due to Tehran’s refusal to drop its nuclear ambitions.
In addition, US President Trump has also ordered the navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran”, adding that “no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas”.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the “Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET” (14:00 GMT).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced that it has restored the full pumping capacity of its East-West pipeline to seven million barrels a day (bpd), rehabilitating a vital link for oil exports via the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported.
WTI technical analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at around $98, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $93.41. The distance from this rising EMA suggests underlying trend support remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.23 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is moderating rather than reversing.
On the downside, the first meaningful support aligns with the 20-day EMA near $93.41, where buyers would be expected to emerge on a corrective pullback while the broader uptrend stays in place. A daily close below this moving average would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose deeper retracements, whereas holding above it keeps the door open for renewed attempts to extend the advance toward higher highs at around $106.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/USD may face key resistance near 1.1750 at the upper ascending channel boundary.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum.
- The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.1640.
EUR/USD edges higher after opening at a gap down, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is rising within an ascending channel.
The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This constructive positioning is backed by a 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.
On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may find its primary barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1750, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair in exploring the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.
The EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1640, aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.1636. A break below these averages would weaken the price momentum and expose the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1500, followed by the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.32% | 0.46% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.45% | 0.28% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | -0.32% | 0.12% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.03% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.46% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.04% | 0.17% | -0.15% | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.14% | 0.29% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.13% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.32% | -0.15% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.03% | -0.13% | 0.15% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.07% | 0.10% | -0.11% | -0.19% | 0.02% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY struggles to build on modest Asian session gains as intervention fears limit JPY losses.
- The fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls and backs the case for further gains for the pair.
- The technical setup also suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
The USD/JPY pair builds on gains from the past two days and opens with a bullish gap at the start of the new week, rising to the 159.85 region during the Asian session. However, intervention fears keep a lid on any further appreciation for spot prices.
Failed US-Iran peace talks trigger a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and benefit the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status. Adding to this, rallying Crude Oil prices fuel inflationary fears and reaffirm hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which further underpins the buck and offers support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is weighed down by economic concerns stemming from imported energy shocks due to the Middle East conflict. However, speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY weakness hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets and cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.
Spot prices retain a bullish bias following last week's resilience below the 158.25-158.20 horizontal support. Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair holds comfortably above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 63 suggests firm upside momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.
Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns increasingly positive, hinting that buyers retain control for now. The USD/JPY bulls, however, might await a sustained strength and acceptance above the 160.00 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of a three-day-old appreciating move.
On the downside, initial support is reinforced by the 200-period SMA at 158.56, which underpins the broader uptrend and would be the first level watched in the event of a corrective pullback. This is followed by the 158.25-158.20 support and the 158.00 mark, which, if broken, could turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/JPY struggles as the Euro faces challenges on increased risk aversion.
- US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal.
- Rising energy costs boosted expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike.
EUR/JPY pares its daily losses but remains in the negative territory, trading around 186.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross faced challenges as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) lost ground following the failure of the United States (US)-Iran peace talks. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal following 21 hours of negotiations.
US President Donald Trump said Washington would begin blockading all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 AM ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday.
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu, in their pre-ceasefire European Central Bank (ECB) outlook, projected four 25-basis-point rate hikes starting in June. While they now see downside risks to this view, they emphasize that broader price pressures persist and that even a resolution to the conflict would not eliminate the need for ECB tightening.
The downside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles on stagflation concerns amid rising oil prices. Rising energy costs fueled expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. The BoJ is set to hold its next policy decision on April 28, where officials will evaluate whether elevated global energy and commodity prices justify tightening.
The Sakura Report showed board members balancing upside inflation risks against downside growth risks following the April 6 branch managers’ meeting. All nine regions maintained that their economies were either “recovering moderately,” “picking up,” or “picking up moderately.”
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- USD/CHF regains positive traction on Monday as failed US-Iran peace talks boost the USD.
- Reviving inflation fears reaffirm hawkish Fed expectations and also benefit the Greenback.
- The setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further intraday appreciating move.
The USD/CHF pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and recovers further from a nearly three-week low, around the 0.7855 area, touched on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a five-day losing streak and currently trade around the 0.7925 region, up 0.50% for the day, amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).
The global risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse in reaction to failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend and benefits the USD's global reserve currency status. Despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions, high-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the region.
Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and revive inflationary concerns, which might force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, hot inflation data released on Friday led investors to abandon bets on Fed rate cuts this year and shift focus towards potential rate hikes. This is reinforced by a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor offering support to the Greenback.
The Wall Street Journal, citing officials familiar with the discussions, reported that regional countries are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days. This keeps the door open for further diplomacy, which keeps a lid on additional USD gains. That said, the USD/CHF pair showed some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the subsequent move favors bullish traders. This suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8657 compared to Friday's of 6.8654 and 6.8395 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- US Dollar Index may regain ground as safe-haven demand rose following the failure of the US–Iran peace talks.
- Vice President JD Vance confirmed US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal after 21 hours of negotiations.
- Stronger March US CPI reinforced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, signaling rates may stay elevated for longer.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining in the positive territory after paring daily gains and trading around 99.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.
However, the Greenback gained ground on increased safe-haven demand following the failure of the United States (US)-Iran peace talks. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal following 21 hours of negotiations.
US President Donald Trump said Washington would begin blockading all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 AM ET (14:00 GMT) Monday.
Moreover, the US Dollar receives support as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) March data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) higher-for-longer stance. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that annual CPI rose to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February, matching expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.9% after 0.3% previously. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed will hold rates steady until price stability is achieved. However, Daly added that a rate cut is possible if the Iran conflict eases quickly and oil prices decline.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- AUD/USD shows some resilience below the 0.7000 and rebounds from a confluence support.
- Rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the USD and might cap gains for spot prices.
- The mixed technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for further intraday gains.
The AUD/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week, though it lacks follow-through and recovers around 40 pips from the Asian session low levels below the 0.7000 psychological mark. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7030 area, still down 0.50% for the day, amid a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade.
High-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough, despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions over the weekend, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets, which provides a goodish lift to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and exerts heavy pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Furthermore, a sharp intraday rally in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns, reaffirming bets for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) and triggering a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields. This turns out to be another factor that benefits the buck. That said, reports that regional countries are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days keep the door open for further diplomacy, and cap the USD. This, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish tilt, lends support to the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices rebound from a confluence support, comprising the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the late March low. This suggests that buyers are defending the 0.7000 area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory toward the high 30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds in negative territory with a flat profile. This suggests that bearish momentum is fading but not yet reversed.
Meanwhile, a sustained strength above the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.7032 would expose the Fibonacci anchor near 0.7093. On the downside, initial support is aligned around the 200-period EMA at 0.6996 and the clustered 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.6995. A decisive break below this zone would open the way toward deeper Fibonacci supports at 0.6964 and 0.6934, with 0.6891 and 0.6835 following as lower structural floors if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 1-hour chart
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- NZD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as renewed geopolitical risks boost the USD.
- Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz after failed US-Iran talks.
- Rallying Oil prices revive inflationary fears and reaffirm hawkish Fed bets, also benefiting the USD.
The NZD/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new trading week in reaction to failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend and trades around the 0.5800 mark during the Asian session.
High-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough, despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions mediated by Pakistan. US Vice President JD Vance said that Washington placed its final and best offer on the table, but Tehran declined to accept the terms, leading to a stalemate. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. This, in turn, takes a toll on the global risk sentiment, which is seen underpinning the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and weighing on the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the latest developments raise the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and fuel concerns about a deepening global energy crisis, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and reviving inflation fears. This comes on top of data released on Friday, which showed that US inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years, and reaffirms bets for a more hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook remains supportive of a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields and further benefits the Greenback, contributing to the heavily offered tone surrounding the NZD/USD pair.
The Wall Street Journal reported that regional countries are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days, keeping the door open for further diplomacy. This helps limit the pessimism and caps the USD, offering some support to the pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders, suggesting that any attempted recovery is more likely to be sold into. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for the resumption of the NZD/USD pair's recent bounce from the year-to-date trough.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.49% | 0.29% | 0.19% | 0.51% | 0.41% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | 0.11% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.49% | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.30% | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.29% | 0.06% | 0.19% | -0.14% | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.36% | 0.24% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.51% | -0.14% | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.09% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | -0.05% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.24% | 0.09% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.00% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
