Forex News

XAU/USD Current price: $4,066.90

• Resurgent US Dollar demand amid risk aversion limits Gold’s bullish potential.
• Investors await the FOMC meeting minutes and NVIDIA earnings report.
• XAU/USD hovers around $4,065 with a modest bearish tilt.

Risk aversion dominates financial markets in the American session on Wednesday, resulting in a much firmer US Dollar (USD) across the FX board. In the case of XAU/USD, demand for safety benefits both Gold and the Greenback, keeping the pair afloat, though off its intraday high of $4,132.

Financial markets brace for United States (US) data and earnings reports, the latter focused on chip-maker NVIDIA, scheduled to report later in the day. As per the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of the October meeting, when US officials decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps).

Still, Chairman Jerome Powell dropped a bomb by saying a December interest rate cut should not be taken for granted. Powell claimed that the lack of official macroeconomic figures would leave them without a clear framework for deciding on monetary policy. Indeed, the US federal government has remained shut down for 43 days, the longest in the country’s history. Congress finally agreed on a funding bill last week, and President Donald Trump signed it last Wednesday, which means official delayed data is slowly reaching the macroeconomic calendar.

Back to the minutes, the document is expected to shed light on the reasoning behind policymakers’ decisions, and could provide additional hints of what’s next in monetary policy. The US government reopening and the upcoming data releases ahead of the December meeting, however, can overshadow the potential impact of the minutes.

The focus will quickly shift to US data after the release of FOMC minutes, with the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Thursday. The over two-month-old report is expected to show that the country added 50K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen stable at 4.3%. The missed October report is likely to have a broader impact on the market’s sentiment, yet there’s no official release date.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture for XAU/USD is mildly bearish. In the 4-hour chart, the pair trades at $4,067.88, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes lower, converging with a 200-period SMA, both around $4,080, while barely above a flat 100-period SMA. The broader SMA configuration points to a consolidative bias, with the longer average acting as dynamic resistance and the intermediate one providing support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned lower, standing just below its midline, signaling waning buying interest. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 offers a neutral-to-bearish tone.

Technical readings on the daily chart suggest XAU/USD still has limited downside scope. The 20-day SMA holds above the 100- and 200-day measures but has flattened and edged lower, hinting at a pause within the broader uptrend. The 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to rise, reinforcing bullish control as price remains above all three. The 20-day SMA at $4,045.67 offers nearby dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator stands above its midline but has cooled, while the RSI hovers around 52, both of which signal a neutral-to-positive tone. A break below $4,045.67 would expose the 100-day SMA at $3,676.62 and the 200-day at $3,427.08.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

• WTI slips toward $59.00 on Wednesday, declining 2.80% on the day.
• API data showed a build in US Crude stocks, while the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp drawdown.
• Upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could help limit the downside in Oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $59.00 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 2.80% on the day. The price remains under pressure as traders weigh mixed US inventory data and monitor escalating geopolitical risks linked to upcoming sanctions on major Russian producers.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US Crude Oil stockpiles for the week ending November 14 rose by 4.4 million barrels, following a 1.3 million barrel increase the previous week. These figures initially added bearish pressure, reinforcing the perception that US supply has been running above seasonal averages so far this year.

However, the more closely watched report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a very different picture earlier in the day. Official data showed a draw of 3.426 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.9 million barrel decline and after a substantial 6.413 million barrel build in the prior week. This divergence helped curb deeper losses in WTI, as traders typically regard EIA data as the more reliable gauge of underlying market balance.

Beyond inventories, geopolitical developments continue to influence sentiment. The United States (US) is preparing to enforce sanctions on Russian Oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil starting Friday. The US Department of the Treasury has stated that the measures introduced in October are already pressuring Russia’s Oil revenues and are expected to reduce export volumes over time. Any signs of persistent geopolitical strain could lend support to Oil prices by tightening global supply.

Overall, WTI remains caught between conflicting forces. The API’s inventory build and broad risk-off sentiment are weighing on prices, while the sharp EIA draw and looming Russian sanctions are helping cushion the decline, keeping the benchmark near $59.00.

• The Minutes of the Fed’s October 28-29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday.
• Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 bps will be scrutinized by investors.
• Markets are split on whether the Fed will cut the policy rate again in December.

The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) October 28-29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 3.75%-4% at that meeting, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of lowering the fed funds rate by 50 bps, while Kansas Fed President Jeff Schmid preferred no change.

Jerome Powell and company opted to reduce the policy rate in October

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps in October, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed acknowledged that job gains slowed and the unemployment rate edged up, but reiterated that inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” Additionally, the Fed announced that it will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.

In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that one more 25-bps rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” and added there were strongly differing opinions among policymakers on what the next step could be.

TD Securities analysts expect the FOMC Minutes to reveal the extent of the internal debate that led to a hawkish cut in October. “Since the meeting, the hawks have gained the upper-hand in public remarks amid a lack of official data releases. The end-of-QT October announcement will also get airtime in the minutes, as we expect reserve management purchases to be announced at the January FOMC,” they said.

When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?

The FOMC will release the Minutes of the October 28-29 policy meeting at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in December, down from nearly 70% a week earlier. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) faces two-way near-term risk.

In case the publication suggests that policymakers are willing to keep the policy rate unchanged to buy time to assess the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, investors could lean toward a policy hold in December and allow the USD to gain some strength against its rivals. Conversely, the USD could have a difficult time staying resilient against other major currencies if Fed officials voice growing concerns over the labor market conditions while adopting an optimistic view on the inflation outlook.

Nevertheless, the market reaction to the FOMC Minutes could remain short-lived, as investors are likely to wait for the economic data backlog to clear before positioning themselves for a Fed rate cut or a policy hold in December.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief outlook for the USD Index:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart edges higher to 58 after rebounding from the midline, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key resistance level near 101.30. In case the USD Index makes a daily close above this level and starts using it as support, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 101.40 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the January-July downtrend) could be seen as the next resistance level.”

“Looking south, the first support area could be seen between 98.20 and 97.70 (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA, round number, 20-day SMA) ahead of 96.25 (end-point of the downtrend).”

• Gold holds firm as safe-haven flows strengthen amid a risk-off market tone.
• Investors stay cautious ahead of FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s delayed September NFP report.
• Technical setup remains constructive, with bulls eyeing a breakout above the $4,100-$4,120 resistance zone.

Gold (XAU/USD) trims earlier gains on Wednesday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) limits the metal’s upside. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,090, easing from an intraday high near $4,132.

Despite the pullback, the downside remains limited as a risk-off tone across global markets continues to support safe-haven demand for Gold. Global equities remain under pressure amid unease over stretched tech valuations, keeping investors on the defensive as they await Nvidia’s earnings release. Sentiment is also cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes due later in the day, with markets bracing for the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Thursday.

Adding to the cautious tone, growing skepticism among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials about delivering another interest-rate cut in December is clouding the monetary policy outlook. As officials remain split between lingering inflation risks and signs of labour-market weakness, traders are scaling back expectations for further easing, a factor that could act as a headwind for Gold in the near term.

Market movers: Markets eye Fed Minutes and NFP

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is trading around the 100.03 psychological mark, marking a near two-week high and up around 0.43% on the day.
• The October FOMC Meeting Minutes, due at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday, will be closely watched for insight into last month’s 25 basis point (bps) rate cut that brought the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, with traders looking for clarity after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion. The release is likely to be a key driver for markets as investors look for signs of whether the Committee sees room for additional easing this year.
• Soft US labour data added to the cautious mood, Tuesday’s ADP report showed US private payrolls falling by an average of 2,500 per week in the four weeks to November 1, following an 11.25K decline in the prior period. The Labor Department also resumed releasing the backlog of weekly Jobless Claims, with initial claims at 232K and continuing claims rising to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18, the highest since early August. The data reinforced signs of a cooling labour market.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 46.6% probability of a December rate cut, down from 62.9% a week ago. Attention is firmly on Thursday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with economists expecting payrolls to rise by around 50K, up from the 22K increase seen in August. A softer-than-expected reading could quickly reshape market expectations for further easing.
• US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his administration has begun interviews for the next Federal Reserve chair, adding that he expects to make a decision before year-end. The shortlist includes Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Rick Rieder.

Technical analysis: Constructive bias intact above 100-SMA

From a technical perspective, Gold continues to attract dip buyers within the prevailing uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, prices are now trading back above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), improving the short-term upward bias, while the latest rebound has brought XAU/USD to a test of the 50-period SMA, which closely aligns with the $4,100-$4,120 resistance zone. A sustained break above this area would reinforce bullish momentum, opening the door toward $4,150 initially, followed by the $4,200 region.

On the downside, the 100-period SMA offers immediate support, ahead of the psychological $4,000 level. Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing back above the 50 threshold after recently hovering near oversold territory, signalling recovering buying pressure.

(This story was corrected on November 19 at 15:45 GMT to state that the FOMC Meeting Minutes are due at 19:00 GMT, not 18:00 GMT as previously reported.)

• USD/JPY climbs to mid-January highs as US Dollar strength and Yen weakness persist.
• Price action firmly above the 21, 50 and 100-day SMAs keeps the broader uptrend intact.
• Momentum remains elevated, with RSI in overbought territory but showing no exhaustion signals yet.

USD/JPY extends its upward trajectory on Wednesday, with the pair surging to levels last seen in mid-January. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 156.54, up nearly 0.65%, marking a third straight day of gains as a strong US Dollar (USD) and a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) continue to provide a double boost.

The technical backdrop remains firmly bullish. Since breaking out of the multi-month choppy consolidation range in early October, the pair has maintained a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reflecting strong directional momentum.

A bullish opening gap sparked the breakout above the 150.00 psychological level, initially driven by reports that Sanae Takaichi was set to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. Markets interpreted this as a signal of potential fiscal expansion, weakening the Yen. Once she officially assumed office, confirmation of a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan strengthened those expectations further, keeping the Yen under persistent downward pressure.

Price action remains comfortably above all major Simple Moving Averages (21-SMA, 50-SMA, 100-SMA) on the daily chart, underlining buyer dominance and reinforcing the bullish trend structure.

On the topside, the January 23 swing high at 156.75 serves as immediate resistance. A clear break above this level could pave the way for a retest of the year-to-date high at 158.88, marked on January 10.

On the downside, 155.00 is the first line of support, followed by the 21-day SMA at 153.86. While Japanese authorities have issued intermittent verbal warnings about excessive Yen weakness, concrete intervention remains absent, making a deeper corrective pullback possible but not the base case in the near term.

Momentum indicators warrant some caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 72, holding in overbought territory, which could slow bullish follow-through or prompt brief consolidation. However, no clear bearish divergence has formed yet.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran spoke about the United States (US) financial regulatory framework at the Bank Policy Institute in Washington, DC, on Wednesday. He claimed that he strongly supports the US central bank's efforts to streamline bank regulations.

Key takeaways

Strongly support US central bank's efforts to streamline bank regulations.

Fed should consider exempting treasuries and central bank reserves from bank leverage ratios.

It's possible that Fed could shrink its balance sheet again in the future.

Hopes easing regulations could allow smaller Fed balance sheet.

Smaller Fed balance sheet would reduce interest payout to banks.

Supported Fed's decision to stop balance sheet run-off.

Would have supported immediate end to Fed's quantitative easing at October 28-29 policy meeting.

Size of Fed balance sheet is ultimately dictated by regulations.

Smaller fed balance sheet depends on peeling back regulations."

• GBP/USD dips from 1.3154 to 1.3120 as markets brace for the November 26 Autumn Budget risks.
• UK CPI falls to 3.6% and core CPI to 3.4%, prompting renewed confidence that the BoE will cut rates in December.
• Traders await Fed minutes and Thursday’s NFP, with September jobs expected at 50K and key US data resuming next week.

GBP/USD edges modestly lower on Wednesday as inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) ticked lower in October, increasing the chance of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in December. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3120 after reaching a peak of 1.3155.

Sterling eases after CPI cools further, boosting expectations for an 85%-probability rate cut ahead of next week’s Autumn Budget

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped from 3.8% to 3.6% YoY in October, as expected. Core CPI slipped from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, its lowest since March. The Pound Sterling (GBP) dipped as investors grew confident that the BoE may reduce borrowing costs at the December meeting.

The Pound could take a hit next week with the release of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget, on November 26.

Money markets had priced in an 85% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut, according to LSE data.

In the US, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 18 rose by 232K, triggering no reaction in financial markets. Besides traders waiting for the release of the Fed’s last meeting minutes, they are laser-focused on Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures for September, which are expected to come at 50K, up from August’s 22K print.

The US Census Bureau announced that it would publish the September Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders next week.

Ahead, Fed officials Governor Stephen Miran and regional Fed Presidents John Williams and Thomas Barkin will cross the wires.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Technically speaking, GBP/USD reached its lowest level in five days, at 1.3092, an indication that the downtrend continues. Momentum is bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

If GBP/USD cracks below 1.3100, the next support would be the last cycle low of 1.3010, hit in early November. Conversely, if buyers clear the 20-day SMA at 1.3173, the next key resistance in play would be 1.3200.