Forex News
- NZD/USD remains steady following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March.
- Market sentiment improves as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
- US Vice President JD Vance signaled ongoing diplomacy and a potential path toward US–Iran de-escalation.
NZD/USD inches lower after registering 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March. It is important to note that any change in the Chinese economy could impact the NZD as China and New Zealand are close trade partners.
In Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion. Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.
However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar USD) may struggle amid easing risk aversion, which could be attributed to the reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.
US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.
Markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance CNY
The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Read more.Last release: Tue Apr 14, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 354.75B
Consensus: -
Previous: 1,500B
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- The US Dollar clings to Monday’s losses on US-Iran permanent ceasefire optimism.
- US VP Vance called negotiations with Iran “productive”.
- Traders do not see the Fed hiking interest rates this year amid US-Iran optimism.
The US Dollar (USD) holds onto its Monday’s losses amid optimism that the United States (US) and Iran are still in favor of a permanent ceasefire despite the absence of a breakthrough in the first round of talks in Pakistan during the weekend.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near 99.37, which is the lowest level seen in over six weeks.
Earlier in the day, US Vice President (VP) JD Vance stated in an interview with Fox News that the meeting with Iranian delegates was not a complete failure, but was “productive”, as his team gained “valuable insight into Iran’s negotiating approach”. Vance expressed confidence in a potential second round of negotiations, stating,” Momentum has been established, with the ball in Iran’s court to advance negotiations further.”
Meanwhile, a report from CNN has also stated that officials from Washington are internally discussing details for a potential second, in-person meeting with Iranian officials before a ceasefire expires on April 21.
On the domestic front, traders have completely priced out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), following the decline in the oil price amid US-Iran optimism, have also weighed on the US Dollar.
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
In a Semafor interview on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “the US should ‘wait and see’ before lowering interest rates.”
Additional quotes
Confident recent price increases are not “going to get embedded into inflation expectations.”
But I think as we went into January [and] came out of January and February — the economy was very strong.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index is modestly flat on the day near 98.40, licking its previous wounds.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.01% | -0.18% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.00% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.08% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.15% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.14% | 0.07% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
China's Trade Balance for March, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion.
Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.
In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s Trade Surplus shrank more than expected in March.
Trade Balance arrived at +51.1B versus +112B expected and +213.62B prior.
Exports (YoY): 7.1% vs. 8.3% expected and 21.8% last.
Imports (YoY): 27.8% vs. 11.1% expected and 19.8% previous.
Market reaction to China’s Trade Balance
AUD/USD holds lower ground near 0.7080 in an immediate reaction to the Chinese trade data. The pair is down 0.14% on the day, as of writing.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/CAD struggles as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
- President Trump said Tehran initiated contact, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled willingness for lawful dialogue.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid eased risk aversion following reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.
US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.
The Greenback weakens as markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid lower oil prices, given the fact that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States. Crude oil prices fall as supply concerns ease after reports of US-Iran further talks.
In Canada, CBC News reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday, strengthening his ability to advance legislation aimed at navigating a more divided geopolitical landscape. The victory gives Carney’s Liberals 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
