Forex News
- EUR/USD declines to near 1.1465 in Monday’s early European session.
- The pair keeps the bearish vibe, downside pressure prevails with RSI holding below the midline.
- The first downside target to watch is 1.1450; the immediate resistance level emerges at 1.1570.
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1465 during the early European session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal, following threats from President Donald Trump to restart the war in the Middle East, weighs on the riskier assets such as the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
On Monday, Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on the conclusion of negotiations between the US and Iran in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, saying that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. Meanwhile, Pakistani and Qatari mediation yields significant progress to end the Lebanon conflict, adding that oil and petrochemical exports are exempt, the blockade is removed, some frozen assets are freed, and a major reconstruction and development plan is initiated for Iran.
On the other hand, hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials might help limit the USD’s losses. On Friday, ECB policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said that the central bank may raise interest rates one more time as soon as next month if it sees more evidence of Eurozone inflation spreading beyond energy.
The ECB’s deposit rate currently stands at 2.25%, and financial markets expect additional 25 basis point hikes in September or October, possibly followed by one more in the early months of next year.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps a clear bearish bias as spot holds well below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is nearing the lower Bollinger band support while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 34 drifts towards oversold territory, which suggests persistent downside pressure but also warns that selling momentum could start to fatigue near current levels.
On the downside, the immediate cushion emerges at the lower Bollinger band near 1.1450; a sustained break under this level would open the door toward fresh lows in the broader downtrend. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 1.1570, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1665 and the upper Bollinger band near 1.1695, with the pair needing to reclaim at least the mid-band to ease the prevailing bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Oil price is down to near $75.50 as both the US and Iran have hailed progress in peace talks.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports.
- WTI could slide to pre-war levels around $67.20 if the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 1.2% lower near $75.50 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Oil price gives back its opening gains and turns negative as both the United States (US) and Iran have expressed progress in talks toward reaching a deal in 60 days held in Switzerland over the weekend.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated “great progress” after talks, citing that Tehran had secured what he described as waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of the US naval blockade on its seaports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan, CNBC reported.
A positive commentary from Iran matters more than the US, as the nation announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing continued hostilities in Lebanon.
US Vice President JD Vance also hailed “great progress” after meeting with negotiators from Iran.
Meanwhile, Qatar and Pakistan, mediating peace between the US and Iran, have also touted significant progress in peace talks after meeting in Switzerland.
“High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks,” according to the Pak-Qatar joint statement.
During the early Asian session, a spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry has said that “a formal transit mechanism was successfully arranged to guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.”
WTI technical analysis
Bias: The WTI US Oil trades lower at around $75.50, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $84.05. The positioning under this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain corrective at best, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 33 hints at persistent downside pressure.
Resistance: On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the 20-day EMA clustered around $84.05, which acts as the first key resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward $90.
Support: Looking down, the Oil price could return to pre-war levels around $67.20 if it slides below the June 18 low at $72.79.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold snaps a three-day losing streak to over a one-week low, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates offer some support to the commodity.
- The Iran uncertainty and a hawkish Fed underpin the USD, capping gains for the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers at the start of a new week and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to a more than one-week low, touched last Friday. Crude Oil prices turn lower following a modest bullish gap after mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced a formal 60-day roadmap aimed at securing a final US-Iran peace deal. This, in turn, helps ease concerns around inflation and higher interest rates, offering some support to the precious metal.
That said, traders are still pricing in a nearly 90% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. The bets were lifted by the Fed's hawkish forecast last week, signaling that it will need to raise the policy rate this year if inflation remains sticky. Furthermore, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, focused on price stability during the post-meeting press conference, suggesting that the central bank might not rush to cut rates even in the face of declining growth. Apart from this, geopolitical developments over the weekend act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), which should cap further gains for the Gold.
Iran accused the US and Israel of violating the ceasefire and announced that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Moreover, US President Donald Trump threatened fresh military action against Iran if Hezbollah continued attacks on Israel. This underscores the fragility of the diplomatic process and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Adding to this, Russia has intensified attacks on major Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, which helps the safe-haven Greenback to stall Friday's pullback from its highest level since May 2025 and keeps a lid on the Gold, warranting caution for bulls.
Moving ahead, all eyes remain on US-Iran headlines, which might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that an attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and fizzle out rather quickly.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold might struggle to capitalize on intraday gains amid a bearish technical setup
From a technical perspective, last week's failed attempts to clear the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support-turned-resistance, and the subsequent fall, favor the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the upper-30s, hinting at subdued buying interest. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with a modestly negative histogram, suggesting that downside momentum is easing but not yet reversed.
Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA near $4,334 should act as the first key level that bulls need to reclaim to alleviate the current bearish pressure. Until that level is recovered on a daily closing basis, rebounds are likely to be viewed as corrective within a broader consolidative decline, with momentum signals implying that further tests of lower levels cannot be ruled out.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CHF holds gains at a nearly seven-month high of 0.8091.
- The US Dollar gains support as a renewed US-Iran peace deal lifts safe-haven demand.
- The SNB will sell Swiss Francs if rapid appreciation threatens price stability.
USD/CHF remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.8080 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains close to a nearly seven-month high of 0.8091, reached on June 19, as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to renewed concerns over a US-Iran peace deal.
CNBC reported on Sunday that US President Donald Trump threatened direct strikes on Iran if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel. This warning has severely clouded the outlook for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran, completely dismantling the current peace framework, even as Vice President JD Vance met with Iranian officials for the first round of talks under an interim deal.
Meanwhile, Tehran simultaneously announced it had once again closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian state media reported that Tehran had completely suspended negotiations in response to Trump's remarks, sources close to the matter indicated that discussions are quietly ongoing.
Moreover, the Greenback receives support as the Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a decidedly hawkish tone after keeping interest rates steady last week. Notably, 9 out of 19 Fed policymakers now project at least one interest rate hike this year, with market investors pricing in a potential increase as early as September.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel reaffirmed the central bank's readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market, stating they will sell Swiss francs (CHF) if rapid appreciation threatens price stability.
With inflation remaining subdued within the 0–2% target range and minimal upward pressure ahead, the SNB held its policy rate steady for a fourth straight meeting, indicating no near-term plans to tighten policy.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- EUR/JPY cross finds immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 185.22.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 49.6 is effectively neutral, experiencing range-bound trading conditions.
- The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 185.12.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 185.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds a mild bullish bias as price sits above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while being capped immediately by the nine-day EMA.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.6 is effectively neutral, suggesting range-like conditions as the pair consolidates just above its medium-term trend support. Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is remained within the ascending channel pattern, signaling a prevailing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 185.22. A break above the short-term average would reinforce the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.60.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA of 185.12, with further declines targeting the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 184.50. A successful break below the channel would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by the six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.06% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.02% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US Dollar Index gains support as renewed US-Iran peace deal concerns keep inflation and prolonged high interest rates in focus.
- President Trump threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel, clouding hopes for a US-Iran peace deal.
- Fed policymakers project a rate hike this year, with markets pricing in an increase by September.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers its recent losses from the previous trading day and is hovering around 100.80 during the Asian hours on Monday.
The Greenback receives support amid renewed concerns over a US-Iran peace deal, a development that keeps both inflation risks and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates at the forefront of investor worries.
According to a CNBC report on Sunday, US President Donald Trump threatened direct strikes on Iran if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel. This warning has severely clouded the outlook for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran, completely dismantling the current peace framework, even as Vice President JD Vance met with Iranian officials for the first round of talks under an interim deal.
Meanwhile, Tehran simultaneously announced it had once again closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian state media reported that Tehran had completely suspended negotiations in response to Trump's remarks, sources close to the matter indicated that discussions are quietly ongoing.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates steady last week but adopted a decidedly hawkish tone. Notably, 9 out of 19 Fed policymakers now project at least one interest rate hike this year, with market investors pricing in a potential increase as early as September.
"The resurgent US dollar, powered by the Fed's newly hawkish tone under Kevin Warsh, has stolen the spotlight," noted Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, highlighting the growing headwinds facing precious metals.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- GBP/USD attracts some buyers following a bearish gap opening at the start of a new week.
- The fragile US-Iran peace deal and the hawkish Fed lend support to the USD, capping the pair.
- The UK political chaos and reduced BoE rate hike bets should further keep a lid on spot prices.
The GBP/USD pair climbs back to the 1.3235 region during the Asian session and fails the weekly bearish gap opening amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, though the upside potential seems limited.
Mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced a formal 60-day roadmap aimed at securing a final US-Iran peace deal, which, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven buck and prompts some intraday short-covering around the GBP/USD pair. However, geopolitical developments over the weekend, along with the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, could act as a tailwind for the Greenback.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday in response to the renewed hostilities by Israel in Lebanon. Moreover, Iranian negotiators walked out of the peace talks in Switzerland in response to US President Donald Trump's threat to strike Iran again. This keeps geopolitical risk premiums in play, which favors the USD bulls and backs the case for the emergence of fresh selling around the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could announce his resignation as early as Monday, paving the way for the former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to replace him. The UK political turbulence, in turn, might continue to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and contribute to keeping a lid on the GBP/USD pair, warranting caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.
Moreover, reduced bets for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) suggest that any subsequent move up could be seen as a selling opportunity. Hence, strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out in the near-term and before positioning for any meaningful recovery from the lowest level since late March, touched on Friday.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5735 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- China's central bank holds the Loan Prime Rates steady in June.
- The US-Iran peace talks took place in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on Sunday.
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory around 0.5735 during the early Asian session on Monday. The China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak following the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision. Traders continue to digest the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.
The PBOC announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments surrounding the US-Iran agreement. Progress on the US-Iran peace deal could support the riskier assets such as the shared currency. On the other hand, signs of a prolonged US-Iran conflict could boost the Greenback as a safe-haven currency.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% after Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank. Warsh said during the press conference that “price stability” would be the Fed’s guiding principle.
Futures traders have priced in that the Fed is likely to hike rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting, with some chance seen of a move as soon as next month’s meeting.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- AUD/JPY holds steady as the Australian Dollar gains support from China’s central bank keeping its benchmark interest rates unchanged.
- The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
- The Japanese Yen may find support on Japanese forex intervention risks and recent hawkish BoJ commentary.
AUD/JPY gains ground after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 113.30 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stronger following China’s latest monetary policy update.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) opted to keep its benchmark one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. Because China and Australia share a close trading relationship, the stability in the Chinese economy provided a supportive baseline for the proxy-vulnerable Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, domestic policy continues to offer underlying support for the AUD. After holding the cash rate steady this month, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation remains too high, warning that further rate hikes cannot be entirely ruled out. Despite this hawkish rhetoric, market participants increasingly suspect that the RBA's tightening cycle has peaked, viewing another rate hike as unlikely unless second-quarter inflation figures significantly overshoot expectations.
However, the upside for the AUD/JPY pair may be capped if the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds support amid ongoing risks of forex intervention by Japanese authorities. This sentiment is reinforced by recent hawkish commentary from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Looking ahead, traders are shifting their focus to Tuesday's Japanese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and Wednesday’s release of the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting, where policymakers notably lifted interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%, for further clues on Japan's economic trajectory.
Economic Indicator
PBoC Interest Rate Decision
The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holds scheduled meetings on a quarterly basis. However, China’s benchmark interest rate – the loan prime rate (LPR), a pricing reference for bank lending – is fixed every month. If the PBoC forecasts high inflation (hawkish) it raises interest rates, which is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). Likewise, if the PBoC sees inflation in the Chinese economy falling (dovish) and cuts or keeps interest rates unchanged, it is bearish for CNY. Still, China’s currency doesn’t have a floating exchange rate determined by markets and its value against the US Dollar is fixed mainly by the PBoC on a daily basis.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jun 22, 2026 01:15
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3%
Consensus: 3%
Previous: 3%
Source: The People's Bank of China
The US-Iran peace talks took place on Sunday in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, with delegations from Iran, the United States, Qatar, and Pakistan participating. On Monday, Qatar and Pakistan issued joint statement on conclusion of negotiations, saying that talks conducted in positive, constructive atmosphere.
"High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks," reads the Pak-Qatar joint statement on US-Iran talks in Burgenstock.
Meanwhile, Pakistani and Qatari mediation yields significant progress to end Lebanon conflict, adding that oil and petrochemical exports exempt, blockade removed, some frozen assets freed, major reconstruction and development plan initiated for Iran.
Key quotes from joint statement
Encouraging progress includes creation of mechanism for further technical talks.
Establish high-level committee for mediation oversight following MoU.
Chief negotiators to provide regular updates to high-level committee.
High-level committee agrees on roadmap to final deal within 60 days.
Parties agreed to establish de-confliction cell involving Lebanon, with mediator support to ensure termination compliance.
In the last hour, Tasnim news agency cited an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that “a formal transit mechanism was successfully arranged to guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.”
Additional quotes
The framework was hammered out during an intense 18-hour session of high-level diplomatic talks held in Switzerland.
While the primary negotiating delegations have concluded their session, technical expert teams will remain on-site to advance the groundwork for final pact talks.
Market reaction
Crude oil prices attract some sellers following this headlines. At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.08% on the day at $75.60.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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