Forex News

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.

Low growth and inflation justify further easing

"Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%."

"While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%), before a rebound to 2.5% in 2027."

"Beyond 2026, Thailand stands out as a low growth/low inflation economy relative to the global backdrop, reinforcing that the constraint is not only cyclical demand but also structural potential growth."

"We maintain our view that the BOT is likely to cut the policy rate (1-day repurchase rate) by 25bps to 1.00% at the 25 Feb 2026 MPC meeting, from 1.25% currently."

"We see this as the terminal rate for the cycle."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Friday he is deeply disappointed of certain members of the Supreme Court after it ruled that his sweeping tariffs are illegal. In a press conference in Washington DC, Trump has vowed to impose a 10% "global tariff" using an alternative law.

Key takeaways

It is deeply disappointing.

Ashamed of certain members of the court.

Foreign countries are so happy.

Countries won't be dancing for long.

Court has been swayed by foreign interests.

There are methods that are even stronger available to me.

Other alternatives will be used on tariffs.

Could be we take in more money.

I am allowed to cut off all trade with a country.

I am allowed to impose an embargo.

I will go in a stronger direction now.

Supreme Court made my ability to impose tariffs more powerful.

Income coming in from tariffs will increase.

Effective now, all national security tariffs under Section 301 remain in place.

10% global tariff to be imposed on top of other tariffs."

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng forecasts Singapore core and headline inflation rising to 1.5% year-on-year in January 2026 from 1.2% in December, helped by low base effects and stronger services prices. Industrial production is expected to post a fifth month of expansion, with January growth jumping to 20.0% year-on-year on robust electronics and AI-related demand.

Prices and tech-heavy output to firm

"We expect both core and headline inflation in Singapore to rise to 1.5% yoy in January 2026, up from 1.2% yoy for both indicators in December 2025."

"Price pressures have been picking up since 4Q25, following a period of weakness."

"For industrial production (IP), we anticipate a fifth consecutive month of expansion, with growth accelerating to a solid 20.0% yoy in January 2026, compared to 8.3% yoy in December 2025."

"Manufacturing growth was notably supported by strong electronics performance."

"The surge in electronics domestic exports to 56.1% yoy in January, driven by robust artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand for memory chips and server-related products, pointed to an acceleration in tech-heavy manufacturing output."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)