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• The Canadian Dollar follows a broad-market risk bid to higher ground on Friday.
• Economic data from Canada is thin on Friday, as well as all next week.
• Crude Oil takes a little off the top, paring back recent losses and helping to prop up the CAD.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained ground across the FX board on Friday, recovering from near-term declines. Still, gains are thin and the charts remain choppy as investors readjust their positions and expectations after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for November surprised to the upside. The CAD finished Friday up a scant tenth of a percent against the US Dollar (USD), while the Loonie’s strongest performance was against the Kiwi (NZD), climbing about seven-tenths of a percent for the trading week's last day.

Canada brought little significant economic data on Friday, and the same rings true for next week with next to nothing on the calendar docket for the CAD until next Friday’s appearance from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem. BoC Governor Macklem is expected to answer audience questions after speaking at the Canadian Club of Toronto.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Canadian Dollar in the green for Friday despite rough ride from US NFP

• The Canadian Dollar is up across the broader FX market on Friday, gaining ground against every other major currency, with the US Dollar taking a tight second place.
• The US Dollar climbed ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls before falling back post-release.
• US November NFP figure beats expectations on Friday, coming in at a hair under 200K, well above the forecast for 180K and clearing further ground above October’s 150K showing.
• Despite the swing in risk sentiment after a better-than-expected NFP print, investors will be keeping a close eye on recent figures heading into 2024 and be on the lookout for revisions.
• Of the last twelve consecutive NFP releases, all but four have been revised lower after the fact. Of the four, only two were revised higher; the two most recent prints have yet to fall under the red pen’s stroke.
• The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index also came in well above expectations, printing at 69.4, well above the forecasted 62.0 and climbing even further above November’s print of 61.3.
• Next week brings US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures as well as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) final Interest Rate Decision, and markets will be keen to see what updates are made to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ of interest rate projections.
• Crude Oil is seeing a moderate bounceback after declining through most of the week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has climbed back to $71.50 per barrel on Friday after declining nearly 8% from Monday’s opening bids, falling to $69.01 per barrel on Thursday.
• A rebound in Crude Oil, even a thin one, is a welcome bump for the Canadian Dollar, which is still down eight-tenths of a percent against the US Dollar from Monday’s open.

Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar looking for gains on Monday, USD/CAD hampered by 1.3600

The USD/CAD saw some back-and-forth action on Friday, pointing to 1.3550 before rallying back towards the 1.3600 handle. Intraday action is getting squeezed into the midrange, with technical support coming from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.3570.

Bullish momentum looks set to stall after a bounce from the 200-day SMA just above the 1.3500 handle, and daily candles have been closing in the middle for the back half of the trading week.

A bullish break will take the USD/CAD back toward the 50-day SMA near 1.3700, while a downside retest of the 200-day SMA will clear the way for another bearish run at September’s swing lows into 1.3400.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

• The GBP/JPY catches a soft bid to challenge 182.00 after a week of stubborn losses.
• The Yen surged on the week, bolstered by a hawkish BoJ.
• The Guppy heads into next week’s central bank showdown on the low side.

The GBP/JPY eked out a small gain on Friday, finishing the day up a slim tenth of a percent to cap off a trading week of firm declines. The Guppy ends the trading week down a firm two and a third percent from the week’s opening bids near 186.60, hitting a nine-week low of 178.58 amidst Thursday’s broad-market Yen rally.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kicked off a wild surge in the Japanese Yen after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck unusually hawkish tones in the mid-week, hinting that the BoJ could be on pace to begin tightening monetary policy, specifically highlighting the Japanese central bank’s negative rate regime.

Despite the BoJ fearing a collapse in Japanese inflation sometime in 2025, Japanese Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continues to run hotter than expected, hitting 2.9% for the year into October and chalking in a nineteenth straight consecutive month of inflation outrunning the BoJ's 2% upper target band.

Yen traders picked up the BoJ’s hawkish tone and ran with it, sending the JPY surging across the board. The GBP/JPY tumbled nearly three and a half percent top-to-bottom on Thursday, pushing the pair down into new lows below 178.60.

Next week sees UK labor figures, followed by Japanese manufacturing figures, culminating in 2023’s last rate call from the Bank of England (BoE).

GBP/JPY Technical Outlook

The GBP/JPY’s tumble left the pair knocking into fresh multi-week lows, and Friday’s thin rebound has the Guppy rebounding from the 180.00 major handle.

Near-term momentum still leans in favor of the bulls, with technical support coming from the still-untouched 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 178.00, but the last swing high into 188.66 represents a significant peak that bidders will struggle to retake.

The GBP/JPY is at risk of re-entering a consolidation phase around the 50-day SMA near the 184.00 price level, and short sellers will have their work cut out for them to try and cut the recovery rally short.

GBP/JPY Hourly Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

• The DXY Index rose above the 20-day SMA towards 104.05 and will close a 0.75% winning week.
• US NFPs from November accelerated, as did Average Hourly Earnings. The Unemployment Rate declined.
• US is set to report CPI inflation next Tuesday.

The US Dollar (USD) continued to command the financial markets as it soared to the 104.05 mark, primarily because of positive labor market figures and a surge in yields, which suggests that markets are delaying rate cuts in 2024. The gains for the USD Index (DXY) were fueled by economic reports from November, prominently Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, all of which collectively fuelled hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed). 

Moderating US inflation figures from October fuelled dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's stance at the beginning of November. However, Fed officials' signals considering further tightening are dampening these expectations, and strong labor market data reaffirms this cautious stance by the bank, which is requesting further evidence on the economy cooling down. The upcoming inflation data from November and the Fed meeting next week will be critical determinants for the USD’s short-term trajectory.

Daily Market Movers: US Dollar rising on the strength of labor market data 

• The US dollar is making gains today, riding on a wave of strong labor market data and climbing yields. 
• According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November's Average Hourly Earnings MoM figures revealed a better-than-expected increase of 0.4%, exceeding both consensus and previous numbers of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
• The Nonfarm Payrolls for November showed 199K new jobs were added to the US economy, surpassing consensus expectations of 180K and the preceding number of 150K jobs.
• The Unemployment Rate came in at 3.7%, lower than the anticipated figure of 3.9%. 
• US bond yields are rising, with rates for 2-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds rising to 4.72%, 4.24%, and 4.23%, respectively.
• As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the market expects no rate hike in the December Fed meeting but anticipates less easing in 2024.
• Next week will see Tuesday's release of the Headline and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which will likely shape the expectations for the next Fed decisions.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar bulls step in, but bears are still in command

The indicators on the daily chart reflect a short-term conflicted landscape for the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) position is on a positive slope, albeit in negative territory. This signals growing buying momentum, but it isn't robust enough to draw a definitive recovery. On the other hand, the histogram of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator paints a similar picture with green bars, which suggests that the selling pressure is declining. 

Regarding the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the index sits above the 20-day SMA, yet below the 100-day SMA. Nonetheless, with respect to the 200-day SMA, it is clear that the index is operating in a generally bullish zone. 

The resilience of bulls, in combination with bears taking a breather, insinuates that the selling force could be losing dominance over the buying force. However, the US Dollar Index needs to make a sustained move above the 100-day SMA for a change in the prevailing selling momentum. Until then, the overall technical outlook remains tentatively balanced toward the downside.

Support levels: 104.00 (20-day SMA), 103.50, 103.30.
Resistance levels: 104.40 (100-day SMA), 104.50,104.70.

• NZD/JPY tallied a 2.60% weekly decline, its worst since December 2022.
• On the daily chart, indicators favor the bears in the short term.
• On the four-hour chart, bears stepped out to consolidate their recent movements.

At the end of the week, the NZD/JPY declined to 88.75, seeing nearly 0.25% losses, after reaching a low of around 87.95 at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Overall, the outlook is bearish for the short term, but bulls dominate the larger time frames. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a negative slope below 50, while the rising red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate that the bears are gaining ground. 

Concerning Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the cross stands below the 20-day average but above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs which indicates that on the broader scale, the bulls are still in command in the broader scale, and as long as the bears fail to conquer those averages their momentum won’t be enough to reverse the overall trend.
 
Zooming, the four-hour chart indicators flattened in negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral just above the oversold threshold, while the MACD prints flat red bars which suggest that bears seem to be consolidating the recent downward movements.

Support Levels: 88.55, 88.15 (100-day SMA), 87.70.
Resistance Levels: 89.25, 89.80, 90.00 (20-day SMA).

NZD/JPY daily chart

• The Swiss Franc is weakening in most of its pairs, but especially against the USD and GBP after the release of US Payrolls.
• Nonfarm Payrolls in November rose by 199K, higher than the 180K expected; Unemployment dropped to 3.7% and wages rose. 
• The data supported the US Dollar and riskier currencies against the safe haven Franc. 

The Swiss Franc (CHF) sold off in most of its major pairs on Friday after the release of a better-than-expected US jobs report supported risk appetite, driving flows away from the safe-haven Franc. The Swiss Franc has lost 0.48% against the US Dollar, while it is down 0.19% and 0.15% against the Euro and Pound Sterling, respectively.

Daily digest market movers: USD/CHF rises as Dollar gains boost from labor report

• The Swiss Franc is weakening versus the US Dollar on Friday after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the US created a higher-than-expected number of jobs in November, reflecting a strong labor market. 
• 199K new positions were filled, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report, when a figure of 180K had been expected by economists. 
• The report also showed that the US Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% in November, from 3.9% in October. No change had been expected. 
• Average Hourly Earnings came out at 0.4%, beating expectations of 0.3% and suggesting wage inflation pressures could be building. Hours Worked also rose, suggesting more full-time positions filled.
• The higher wage data and stronger employment metrics in general indicate the US economy is healthier than thought and that fresh inflationary pressures may yet emerge. 
• The data could make the Federal Reserve keep interest rates higher for longer and think twice before cutting interest rates. 
• Higher-for-longer interest rates will benefit the US Dollar since they are a magnet for capital inflows.
• The next big release for the US Dollar is the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index out at 15:00 GMT, which is estimated to show a rise to 62 from 61.3 in December.  

Swiss Franc technical analysis: USD/CHF posts short-term reversal insignia

USD/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one US Dollar can buy – is trading higher on Friday after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls. 

The pair is rising after having completed a Measured Move price pattern during October and November. Measured Moves are three wave patterns that look like large zig-zags. The first and third waves are usually of a similar length. Wave C completed after achieving the same length as A. This further reinforces the bullish reversal since the December 4 lows.

US Dollar vs Swiss Franc: Daily Chart

The MACD has completed a bullish cross (circled) in negative territory, adding more evidence, signaling potentially more upside on the horizon.

The short-term trend is bullish, and more gains are possible. The next target is at 0.8825, which offers soft resistance. Then comes the confluence of major moving averages residing at 0.8900, where tougher resistance is expected.  

A break below the 0.8667 lows would negate the recovery and see bears back in charge, with likely losses to the 0.8552 July lows. 

Daily digest market movers: Haven Franc weakens after German inflation data, US jobs

• The Swiss Franc falls against the Euro on Friday as risk appetite pivots on better-than-expected jobs data from the US. 
• German inflation data comes out in line with expectations, with the country’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rising 2.3% YoY in November but falling 0.7% MoM, according to data from the Federal Statistics Office of Germany.
• Following lower-than-expected Eurozone inflation data as a whole, the German figures suggest a risk the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates, which is weighing on the Euro and limiting its gains.
• Lower interest rates tend to weaken a currency as they reduce capital inflows. 

Swiss Franc technical analysis: EUR/CHF rebounds from 2023 lows

EUR/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one Euro can buy – has rebounded after touching its lowest level for the year. 

Thursday saw the formation of a Bullish Engulfing Japanese candlestick reversal pattern (see rectangle on chart below) at a major support and resistance level, after the pair recovered from record lows. For the candlestick pattern to be confirmed, it would have to be followed by a green bullish day on Friday. This would provide a short-term bullish reversal signal.

Euro vs Swiss Franc: Daily Chart

The pair is in a downtrend on all key timeframes (weekly, daily, 4hr), however, suggesting bears have the upper hand overall and prices remain at risk of capitulation. 

A break below the 0.9403 lows would reconfirm the bearish bias and see prices fall into uncharted territory, with major whole numbers then expected to provide support at 0.9300, 0.9200, and so on.

Daily digest market movers: GBP/CHF declines after BoE survey

• The Swiss Franc falls versus the Pound Sterling pair on Friday after the US posts better-than-expected labor market data, easing global recession fears. This supports riskier currencies like the Pound Sterling over safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc.
• Earlier on Friday, the Franc had risen against the Pound after the Bank of England (BoE) published its Consumer Inflation Expectations survey, showing that the British public foresees inflation rising at a slower 3.3% pace in the year ahead, compared to the 3.6% recorded in the August survey. 
• The report reflects hopes that inflation may be coming down, and if materialized will mean the BoE will have more incentive to decrease interest rates.   
• Lower interest rates are generally negative for a currency as they deter inflows of foreign capital. 
• The market view of the course of future interest rates in the UK has turned more dovish recently in line with most of the rest of the world. Traders in interest rate futures saw a relatively high chance of the BoE cutting interest rates by 0.75% (three 0.25% cuts) in 2024, as per data reported on Thursday, December 7. 

Swiss Franc technical analysis: GBP/CHF trading at range lows

GBP/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one Pound Sterling can buy – is in a sideways trend on short and long timeframes, whilst the medium-term trend could be classified as very marginally bullish. 

On the 4-hour chart used to analyze the short-term trend, the pair is bouncing up and down within the parameters of a range-corridor between 1.0990 and 1.1155. 

Pound Sterling vs Swiss Franc: 4-hour Chart

More recently it seems to have found a floor at the lows of this range. The pair has just formed a bullish Hammer Japanese candlestick formation (see rectangle in chart above) and is seeing strong bullish follow-through in the period that follows. This provides confirmation of the short-term bullish signal.

It is possible to see the outline of a complete measured move in the zig-zag of price action down from the November 29 high, with wave C completing at the November 7 low. 

The MACD has risen above its signal line whilst well below the zero-line, further adding weight to the short-term bullish outlook. Indeed, looked at throughout December, the MACD looks like it might have formed a wide double-bottom bullish reversal pattern, further amplifying the strength of the current crossover buy signal.

All in all, the short-term chart suggests the GBP/CHF pair is turning around at the bottom of a range and beginning a bullish ascent back up to the range highs at 1.1155. A break above the 1.1040 level would provide further confirmatory evidence a new leg higher was underway.

• Despite printing daily gains, the AUD/JPY is set to finish the week down by more than 2%.
• Daily chart suggests a neutral to downward bias for the pair, with potential upside risks if a daily close is within Ichimoku Cloud boundaries.
• A daily close occurs below the top of the Kumo, the potential for further losses; with key support seen at 95.00, followed by a December 8 low of 94.17.
• Upside resistance includes November 10 swing low-turned resistance at 95.85, ahead of the 96.00 figure, and the Kijun-Sen at 96.14.

The AUD/JPY trimmed some of its Thursday’s losses on Friday, and aims higher 0.27% in late trading during the North American session. Even though the pair is up daily, would finish the week with losses of more than 2.50%, a consequence of comments by Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Ueda. Therefore, the cross is trading at 95.40, after hitting a daily low of 94.17.

The daily chart portrays the pair as neutral to downward biased, though upside risks remain. If AUD/JPY achieves a daily close within the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) boundaries, that could pave the way for further losses; otherwise, the pair could challenge the December 7 high of 96.49.

If AUD/JPY achieves a daily close below the top of the Kumo, the first support would be the 95.00 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the December 8 low of 94.17, ahead of the 94.00 mark

On the upside, if the pair edges above the peak of the Kumo, the first resistance would be the November 10 swing low-turned resistance at 95.85, ahead of the 96.00 figure. The next resistance would be the Kijun-Sen at 96.14.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis – Daily Chart

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

• NZD/USD tumbles more than 0.70%, trading at 0.6124, erasing gains from Thursday's session.
• US jobs data was better than expected, spurring a dip in the unemployment rate.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 69.0, its highest level since August, with revised lower inflation expectations.

NZD/USD is dropping and erased Thursday’s gains on Friday after US economic data sent traders scrambling to pare dovish bets on the US Federal Reserve as November’s Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded estimates. That shows the economy’s resilience; hence, the pair tumbles more than 0.70% and trades at 0.6124.

NZD/USD finished the week down, traders eye next week’s FOMC meeting

As previously mentioned, the US Department of Labor released November’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which depicted the labor market is in better shape than previously released data in the week. The economy added 199,000 jobs, more than the 150,000 in October, and exceeded forecasts of 180,000. As a consequence, the unemployment rate dipped from 3.9% to 3.7%, and Average hourly earnings stood at 4% during the last 12 months to date, suggesting a wage-price spiral is out of discussion.

Following the data release, the NZD/USD seesawed on a wide range and dived to its low of the day at 0.6103 before recovering some ground. Nevertheless, the damage is done, with the pair set to finish the week with losses.

Besides that, the University of Michigan (UoM) revealed its latest consumer poll, which showed American households are more optimistic regarding the economic outlook, as the Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 69.0, its highest level since August, while inflation expectations were revised lower.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six rivals, rose by 0.30%, at 104.01, underpinned by a jump in US yields. The US 10-year bond yield climbed 8 basis points and is set to finish the week at 4.236%.

In the meantime in New Zealand, next week’s economic docket will feature the Current Account alongside the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter. Estimates lie at 0.2%, less than the previous quarter's growth of 0.9%. On the US front, Traders focus on the following week's US inflation report and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

• Mexican Peso recovers from around weekly lows and reclaims the 100-day SMA.
• Mexico’s Producer Price Index was softer than estimated, keeping Banxico’s hopes of easing policy next year alive.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls in November were better than foreseen, in contrast to previously released jobs data.

Mexican Peso (MXN) climbs against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Friday, although data from the United States (US) showed the labor market is not as soft as suggested by previously released data during the week. Consequently, traders pared bets on rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) for the next year while the Greenback rose. Nevertheless, the Mexican currency remains strong in the day, with the USD/MXN trading at 17.35, losing 0.55% on the day, though in the week, the exotic pair rate finishes with gains of 1.20%.

Mexico’s economic docket revealed that inflation on the producer side was softer compared to October’s data, revealed the National Statistics Agency (INEGI). That reinforces the thesis that prices are slowing down, which leaves the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) officials scratching their heads as consumer inflation rises.

Across the border, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the labor market remains strong, with the economy adding more jobs than estimated by market participants, pushing the Unemployment Rate further away from projections of the Federal Reserve. Besides that, USD/MXN traders are eyeing the Federal Reserve’s next week’s meeting, along with the release of US inflation data.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso on the offensive  despite solid US jobs report

• Mexico’s Produce Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.20% YoY in November, below October’s 1.30%. In month-over-month figures, the PPI rate plunged from 0.5% in October to -0.4% in November.
• The latest consumer inflation report in Mexico missed forecasts and exceeded October’s reading.
• Banxico’s officials recently expressed their desire to ease monetary policy, though the divergence in consumer and producer inflation could prevent a rate cut by the first quarter of 2024.
• Nevertheless, there is a dissenter as Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa pushed back and said inflationary risks remain and are growing.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded forecasts of 180K and rose by 199K in November, while the Unemployment Rate slid to 3.7% from 3.9%.
• Average Hourly Earnings, seen as a measure of inflation, grew as expected by 4%, while monthly data advanced by 0.4%, above previous month's 0.2%.
• Following the US employment report, jobs data suggests the labor market is cooling, but at a slower pace than expected by traders. Per the market’s reaction, investors were overly aggressive on the Fed rate cut expectations, with market participants pairing the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut bets for the next year. According to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), 120 basis points of rate cuts are estimated, 20 bps less than a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Mexican Peso buyers regain control as the USD/MXN slumps below the 100-day SMA

The USD/MXN shifted gears and is sliding below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lies at 17.39, suggesting that sellers are in charge but they would need a daily close below that level to extend its losses. The first support level is seen at the current week’s low of 17.16, followed by the area within the 17.00/05 range.

On the other hand, if USD/MXN buyers reclaim the 100-day SMA, that could open the door to challenging the 17.50 psychological level. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 17.55 will be exposed, followed by the 50-day SMA at 17.67.

• WTI's Friday bounce still sees Crude Oil down for a seventh straight week.
• US Crude Oil fell to a near-term floor of $69.01 on Thursday.
• OPEC's pumping caps are seeing little impact as Chinese demand slumps.

Crude Oil markets are seeing a moderate recovery on Friday with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing two percent on the day, but pressured oil markets are still set for a seventh straight week of declines.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scrambled to solidify a group-wide agreement on production cuts after member states came to loggerheads over pumping quotas. Key OPEC members, headed up by Saudi Arabia, have aggressively pursued tighter production caps in order to keep Crude Oil prices bid. However, flagging fuel demand, specifically from China, and disobedient OPEC member states decrying production caps are throwing a wrench in OPEC’s efforts to intentionally undersupply global Crude Oil Markets.

OPEC’s current production caps see the oil cartel agreeing to a combined 2.2 million bpd cut to total Crude Oil production through the first quarter of 2024, but fossil markets remain skeptical about OPEC’s ability to enforce the loose agreement.

OPEC currently has no mechanism of enforcing Crude Oil production quotas, and there is currently no punishment for member countries that choose to flaunt pumping limits and sell more oil than OPEC agreements allow.

Adding fuel to the fire, Chinese imports of Crude Oil declined by 9% in November compared to last year as Chinese demand for fossil fuels sumps alongside China’s growth metrics. 

Despite OPEC’s production-limiting efforts, Crude Oil supplies remain well-stocked with barrel inventories at healthy levels, sending the price of Crude down into multi-month lows.

WTI Technical Outlook

Despite Friday’s rebound after finding a floor on Thursday at $69.01, Crude Oil remains firmly under-bid after closing in the red for five consecutive days into Tuesday, and WTI is on pace to end in the red for a seventh straight week.

WTI Crude Oil daily candlesticks remain firmly capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $78.00, with the 50-day SMA accelerating into the downside at $80.00.

Seven straight weeks of declines have dragged WTI down nearly twenty percent plus a half from the last peak of $89.64, and US Crude Oil is down nearly twenty-seven percent from September’s peak just below $94.00 per barrel.

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Technical Levels

• The USD/SEK rose towards the 10.470 level, threatening the 20-day SMA.
• US November Job reports: Unemployment Rate declined while Nonfarm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings accelerated.
• All eyes are now on next week’s US November CPI and the Fed’s decisions.

In Friday's trading session, the USD/SEK edged higher, primarily driven by strong labor market data from the US and rising American yields, resulting in a 0.80% uptick. Consequently, the USD/SEK now threatens the 20-day SMA of 10.470, a short-term solid resistance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Unemployment rate for November declined to 3.7%. On the positive side, Nonfarm payrolls defied expectations, climbing to 199K against the foreseen 180K and the previous 150K figure. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings marked up 0.4% for November, overshooting the predicted 0.3% and distinctly surpassing the preceding 0.2% rate.

Its worth noticing that recent hints from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on potential further regulatory tightening have subdued dovish expectations, which pushed the pair downwards in the last sessions. In that sense, robust labor market data reinforce this caution as the bank seeks additional confirmation of the economy cooling down. Next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from November may provide markets with further guidance, but the highlight will be the Fed decision, where investors will seek clues on the bank's next plans.

USD/SEK levels to watch

The technical indicators on the daily chart reflect a certain dominance of the selling momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory with a positive slope, suggesting a potential short-term momentum shift, although it is limited while under the 50-midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows flat green bars, suggesting a temporary pause in the selling pressure. 

Yet, the broader picture is tilted toward the bears. The pair are lingering below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), representing that the bears have the command in the bigger picture. Despite the bearish breather, the selling pressure remains the prominent force, especially after the sellers pushed the price to lows since July last week. Therefore, the short-term technical outlook is inclined toward the sellers.

Support Levels: 10.365, 10.275, 10.180.
Resistance Levels: 10.471 (20-day SMA),10.503, 10.540.

USD/SEK daily chart