Forex News
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on a LinkedIn post on Friday that a low-hiring, low-firing environment may persist, or it may change to a no-hiring, more-firing environment.
Key quotes
We must watch both sides of our mandate. Americans deserve both price stability and full employment.
We've been in a relatively low-hiring, low-firing environment for some time. That may persist, but workers are aware that things could change quickly, leaving them in a no-hiring, more-firing labor market.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.27% | -0.51% | 0.03% | -0.40% | -1.06% | -0.99% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.27% | -0.24% | 0.30% | -0.13% | -0.79% | -0.71% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | 0.24% | 0.56% | 0.11% | -0.55% | -0.48% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.56% | -0.42% | -1.09% | -1.02% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | 0.40% | 0.13% | -0.11% | 0.42% | -0.67% | -0.60% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 1.06% | 0.79% | 0.55% | 1.09% | 0.67% | 0.07% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | 0.99% | 0.71% | 0.48% | 1.02% | 0.60% | -0.07% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | 0.30% | 0.03% | -0.21% | 0.33% | -0.10% | -0.76% | -0.69% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors Phillip Jefferson said that future Fed moves will be driven by data and views on the economic outlook. He also added that the job market is slowly stabilizing on Friday.
Key takeaways:
US central bank's current monetary policy is "well-positioned" to deal with what likely lies ahead.
Future Fed moves to be driven by data and views on outlook.
Fed's stance allows 'leeway' for supply side of economy to develop.
He is 'cautiously optimistic' about economic outlook.
Job market stabilizing, inflation should moderate.
Strong commitment to price stability reduces inflation risks.
Tariffs likely represent a one-time shift in price level.
It's possible that stronger productivity could temper inflation pressures.
Tariffs were key driver of inflation in 2025, price pressures should ease in 2026.
Personal consumption expenditures price index likely up by 2.9% in December on year-over-year basis.
He supported last year’s interest rate cuts, policy roughly in neutral stance.
While upside risks remain, he expects inflation pressures to ease.
Job market likely in balance with low-hire, low-fire environment.
He expects economy to grow by 2.2% this year.
Job market softer on reduced demand, immigration issues.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.53% | 0.03% | -0.36% | -1.03% | -0.95% | -0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | -0.25% | 0.30% | -0.07% | -0.75% | -0.66% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | 0.25% | 0.56% | 0.18% | -0.49% | -0.41% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.56% | -0.36% | -1.04% | -0.97% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | 0.36% | 0.07% | -0.18% | 0.36% | -0.68% | -0.60% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 1.03% | 0.75% | 0.49% | 1.04% | 0.68% | 0.08% | 0.72% | |
| NZD | 0.95% | 0.66% | 0.41% | 0.97% | 0.60% | -0.08% | 0.64% | |
| CHF | 0.31% | 0.03% | -0.23% | 0.32% | -0.05% | -0.72% | -0.64% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analysts note the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.25% after earlier cuts and signaled an end to easing while retaining a neutral stance. Despite swaps pricing in future hikes, Governor Malhotra stressed steady rates over the next year. Analysts expect the recent US-India trade deal to help USD/INR retrace prior trade-tension gains.
Neutral RBI stance weighs on Rupee
"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) voted unanimously to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% following 125bps of cuts in 2025. Today’s policy decision was in line with expectations. Importantly, the RBI signaled that it’s done easing."
"INR is underperforming all EMFX largely because RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra leaned against market expectations for rate hikes. Malhotra stressed that the bank’s neutral stance implies steady rates in the next 9 to 12 months while adding that the real rate of interest is still high."
"Regardless, the US-India trade deal struck this week should help USD/INR retrace most of the rally that followed the August peak in trade tensions - when the US slapped 50% duties on India."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rebounds sharply on Friday and reverses early losses.
- A more cautious market mood and expectations of rate cuts support demand for precious metals.
- The persistent strength of the US Dollar, however, limits the near-term upside.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades firmly higher on Friday and hovers around $76.20 at the time of writing, posting gains of 3.50% on the day. After coming under pressure earlier in the day, the white metal attracts dip buyers amid a renewed shift toward safe-haven assets and revived speculation about a more accommodative US monetary policy.
The return of risk aversion across global markets boosts demand for precious metals, as investors remain attentive to geopolitical tensions and sensitive diplomatic discussions involving the United States (US). At the same time, signs of weakness in the US labor market strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a factor that is structurally supportive for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Recent US data released this week highlight a less robust employment dynamic, reinforcing bets on an easier monetary stance. This outlook lowers the opportunity cost of holding Silver and supports prices, especially as some investors seek to diversify their exposure to precious metals beyond Gold.
That said, the upside potential for Silver remains partially capped by the resilience of the US Dollar (USD), which retains part of its recent gains. A firmer US Dollar tends to make dollar-denominated metals more expensive for international buyers, prompting some caution despite the positive intraday bias.
Overall, the combination of safe-haven demand, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and speculative interest keeps Silver firmly underpinned, even as movements in the US Dollar remain a key factor to watch going forward.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
MUFG Bank analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, and Lloyd Chan note that Japan’s 8 February election is reinforcing weakness in the Japanese Yen, with USD/JPY drifting back toward 160 after a brief correction. Local media suggest Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition may secure a lower-house majority, which MUFG warns could broaden fiscal spending expectations and keep upward pressure on USD/JPY and long-end JGB yields.
Japanese politics weigh on Yen
"Japan’s political backdrop is reinforcing downward pressure on the yen as USDJPY drifts back toward 160 after its brief correction to 152."
"Local reports indicate Prime Minister Takaichi’s ruling coalition is on track to secure a lower-house majority, supported by her strong approval ratings since taking office in October."
"This would however potentially create concerns over Japan’s fiscal discipline as the market may anticipate increased government spending, which may fuel upward pressure on USD/JPY and long-end JGB yields."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
(This story was corrected on February 6 at 17:10 GMT as it mistakenly mixed statements from officials of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The story shouldn't have been published.)
The report by Nordea, authored by Jan Størup Nielsen and Anders Svendsen, discusses the Danish Krone's (DKK) recent performance against the Euro. Despite a weakened Krone, the Danish central bank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market, indicating stability in the current interest rate spread. The report also highlights factors contributing to the Krone's weakening and the potential for a seasonal decline.
Danish Krone's performance and outlook
"Despite the high level in EUR/DKK in January, new data from the Danish central bank shows that there has not yet been intervention in the foreign exchange market to defend the fixed exchange rate policy."
"When the Danish krone weakens toward previous intervention levels, the risk of an independent Danish rate hike increases and the DESTR-€STR spread widens."
"Due to this, EUR/DKK could rise above 7.470 in the coming months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD climbs 0.60% as US Dollar weakens, despite lingering pressure from BoE’s dovish stance.
- BoE Governor Bailey reinforces easing bias as disinflation advances and private-sector growth stays weak.
- Soft US labor data boosts Fed cut expectations ahead of delayed NFP and CPI data.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers on Friday, up by 0.60% as the US Dollar (USD) makes a U-turn, erasing Thursday’s losses amid a risk-on mood. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3604, yet is poised to finish the week with a 0.56% loss.
Sterling rises amid risk-on flows and softer Dollar tone, though dovish BoE signals cap upside
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies versus the American Dollar, edges down 0.37% at 97.59, after reaching a two-week high of 98.03 earlier in the day.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged, though it signaled that if the disinflation process met the criteria, it would cut rates. Nevertheless, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey sounded dovish, adding that the Bank Rate is expected to be reduced further.
Recently, the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said that it is good news that inflation is falling to target and acknowledged that private sector growth is subdued but positive.
In the US, softer US jobs data on Thursday led to a delayed reaction in the FX markets, as the Greenback posted gains on Thursday but pared those gains on Friday. Job openings falling, an increase in layoffs according to the Challenger’s report, and a jump in Jobless Claims ramped up expectations that the Fed will cut rates in 2026.
Recently, the University of Michigan (UoM) revealed that Consumer Sentiment improved in February, from 56.4 to 57.3, exceeding estimates of 55. Inflation expectations for one-year dipped from 4% to 3.5%, while they ticked up for a five-year period from 3.3% to 3.4%.
Ahead next week, traders will eye US data, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), both delayed by the short government shutdown. Also, Retail Sales and a flurry of Fed officials will cross the wires.
In the UK, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Thursday and a speech by BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey could move the needle, if not for the ongoing domestic political turmoil surrounding the PM Keir Starmer.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD pair seems poised for a recovery, yet bulls are not out of the woods. They must end the session above 1.3600 to remain hopeful of testing the February 5 high at 1.3662 ahead of 1.3700. Conversely, a drop below 1.3600 could motivate sellers to drive the exchange rate to the current week’s low of 1.3508 ahead of 1.3500. On further weakness, the 50-day SMS is up next at 1.3463.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.35% | 0.71% | 1.37% | 0.28% | -0.74% | 0.09% | 0.60% | |
| EUR | -0.35% | 0.31% | 1.04% | -0.07% | -1.07% | -0.25% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.71% | -0.31% | 0.60% | -0.38% | -1.38% | -0.57% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -1.37% | -1.04% | -0.60% | -1.06% | -2.09% | -1.23% | -1.03% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | 0.07% | 0.38% | 1.06% | -0.99% | -0.18% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | 0.74% | 1.07% | 1.38% | 2.09% | 0.99% | 0.83% | 1.33% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | 0.25% | 0.57% | 1.23% | 0.18% | -0.83% | 0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.60% | -0.24% | 0.07% | 1.03% | -0.31% | -1.33% | -0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Eric Heymann notes that the downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector has ended, with a projected increase in production of 2 to 3% in 2026. This marks the first rise in industrial production since 2021. Heymann notes that while the recovery is promising, structural reforms are essential for sustained growth.
Fiscal stimulus to drive recovery
"For 2026, we are confident that production in the manufacturing sector in Germany will rise again. An increase of 2 to 3% seems realistic to us. This would be the first increase in industrial production since 2021 and only the second since 2019."
"There is a chance that the expected increase in production this year can continue in 2027, because fiscal policy will continue to provide impetus then too and could gain broader impact."
"In the entire manufacturing sector, however, production in 2025 was 15% below its peak (2018). The data shows that the expected recovery in industrial production in 2026 and 2027 would by no means offset the losses of previous years. Without structural reforms, a return to previous production levels is hardly possible."
"For the entire manufacturing sector, however, there is a chance that the expected increase in production this year can continue in 2027, because fiscal policy will continue to provide impetus then too and could gain broader impact."
"These figures are an indication that expansionary fiscal policy is increasingly translating into higher orders for industrial companies (not least for defense goods). Improved tax depreciation conditions for investments could also provide impetus in 2026. Furthermore, (energy-intensive) companies are being relieved on the cost side by government support measures (e.g., temporary industrial electricity price, federal subsidies for grid fees)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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