Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong notes USD/IDR has turned lower with the broader US Dollar (USD) pullback, but says recent Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) softness reflects external uncertainty from a potential prolonged United States (US)–Iran conflict and vulnerability to energy shocks. While concerns persist, the bank sees room for IDR to recover once geopolitical tensions ease and Oil prices decline, with support and resistance levels closely monitored for signs of a deeper pullback.
Geopolitics and energy risk dominate
"USD/IDR turned lower overnight amid broad USD pullback and the uptick in risk sentiments. Iran’s proposal to US may have partially helped to de-escalate geopolitical uncertainties though oil prices staying higher raises the question if the Monday rebound in oil-sensitive Asian FX, including IDR can be sustained."
"Overall, the IDR softness this episode reflects external uncertainty tied to the risk of a prolonged US-Iran conflict. Sentiment was further undermined by S&P’s explicit mention that Indonesia is the sovereign most vulnerable in Southeast Asia to a prolonged energy shock."
"While concerns remain in the interim, we see room for IDR to recover at some point when geopolitical situation de-escalates more meaningfully, alongside oil prices easing. USD/IDR last seen at 17195 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows tentative signs of fading while RSI eased lower."
"Recent price action may also represent a short term exhaustion pattern after a sharp topside break. We are keeping a look out for any continuation in the pullback though it remains early to concur a major trend reversal at this point. Support at 17100 levels (21 DMA), 16960 (50 DMA). Resistance at 17250, 17315 levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma highlight that China’s 1Q 2026 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 5.0% year-on-year from 4.5% in Q4 2025, supported by strong external demand but uneven domestic momentum. Their GDP Nowcast model points to a slowdown to 4.5% in 2Q, with industrial activity, exports and retail sales weakening, while credit and fixed asset investment remain subdued. They also expect China’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, noting downside risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
DBS sees slower China growth ahead
"Today we focus on China’s 1Q real GDP which rose from 4.5%yoy in Q4 2025 to 5.0%, starting the year with a solid footing."
"Industrial activity remained well supported by strong external demand, while domestic momentum stayed uneven, with consumption, investment, and credit growth subdued amid persistent property sector stress and ongoing capacity reduction efforts."
"As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.5% in 2Q."
"The slowdown in growth will be led by weaker industrial activity, exports, and retail sales."
"We expect China’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities’ Head of Commodity Strategy, Bart Melek, argues that Gold is under pressure as Oil-driven inflation keeps real rates elevated and raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal. He notes institutional, ETF and central bank demand has weakened, with technical support seen near the 200-day moving average around $4,258 and a year-end recovery toward the $5,200 range once Oil stabilizes.
High real rates cap Gold upside
"In sharp contrast to most other commodities, gold benefits from being a monetary metal and tends to perform well when inflation rises. However, this is usually only true when monetary policy is not actively attempting to suppress inflation by sharply increasing real rates, as was the case back in 1979-82."
"Given the current negative supply shock, there is a risk that policy will remain relatively restrictive, implying high real carry and a high opportunity cost of holding gold. This is likely why demand from institutional investors, ETFs, and central banks has been weak since the start of the war."
"With that, inflation expectations would almost certainly rise further, and markets would once again grow increasingly concerned about stagflation and higher interest rates across the yield curve. These concerns have already weighed heavily on precious and base metals. Gold is down roughly $700/oz since the conflict began (–13%), silver has fallen $21/oz (–22%), and copper has remained flat despite a deep market deficit."
"Some central banks have slowed purchases because of liquidity constraints associated with the war and may be looking for a lower entry point near support levels. From a technical perspective, gold’s 200-day moving average, currently near $4,258, represents a major support level. An oil spike to $150/b could push the yellow metal down to this level."
"But as long as that level broadly holds, the longer-term uptrend remains intact. Once the oil market starts to stabilize and inflation signals point lower, we expect the yellow metal to move back into the $5,200 range by year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe USD/SGD as slipping on broad USD weakness and expects two‑way, range‑bound trading in the near term, with resistance around 1.2780–1.2850 and support near 1.2720–1.2670. They note that Singapore Dollar (SGD) is likely to behave as a regional defensive currency, holding up better than higher‑beta FX if geopolitical uncertainties persist, supported by stronger domestic data.
Defined range and defensive SGD
"USD/SGD slipped amid broad USD pullback. Pair was last at 1.2745 levels. Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Resistance at 1.2780/1.28 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo). Support at 1.2720 levels (61.8% fibo), 1.2670 (76.4% fibo)."
"On relative terms, SGD can continue to trade like a regional defensive play, holding up better against higher-beta FX should geopolitical uncertainties continued to persist. "
"On data released yesterday, Singapore’s industrial production accelerated to 10.1% YoY in March, picking up speed from the upwardly revised February readings of 3.3% YoY. Electronics was the outperformer again at 30% YoY, followed by precision engineering, general manufacturing while output for both the biomedical and chemicals clusters both fell."
"Our economists noted that 1Q26 GDP growth is likely to be revised up from the advance estimate of 4.6% YoY to 5.2% YoY ceteris paribus as the manufacturing sector growth is likely to be notched higher to 7.9%YoY based on the March print versus the advance estimate of 5.0% YoY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI US Oil reaches a two-week high of around $98 amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
- Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt nearly 20% of global supply.
- Escalation risks fuel supply concerns and reinforce the market’s bullish bias.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $98.00 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 3.21% on the day, reaching its highest level since mid-April. The rise in Crude prices comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran remain deadlocked.
According to reports cited by Reuters, US President Donald Trump considers the peace proposal submitted by Tehran insufficient, particularly due to the lack of commitments regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This stance keeps the diplomatic stalemate in place and prolongs the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for around 20% of global Oil supply.
This major supply disruption is mechanically supporting Oil prices, bringing WTI closer to the psychological $100 level. At the same time, Brent is also advancing, reflecting broad-based tightness across energy markets.
Concerns extend beyond the Oil market alone. United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of a potential global food crisis if the situation persists, highlighting the systemic consequences of a prolonged closure of the strait.
In this context, some market participants expect further upside in prices if disruptions continue. Citibank outlines a scenario in which Brent Oil could reach $150 per barrel should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed through the end of June.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities analysts expect Canada’s Spring Economic Update to show a CAD 60 billion deficit over 2026–27, slightly better than the prior budget shortfall. They attribute the improvement to stronger nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosting revenues and only modest new spending, while seeing limited changes to borrowing plans as T-bills and the Canada Strong Fund structure absorb funding needs.
Stronger revenues offset modest new spending
"The Federal Government is scheduled to present its Spring Economic Update (SEU) at 16:00ET on Tuesday, where we look for a $60bn deficit over 2026-27 for a modest improvement from the $65.4bn shortfall in Budget 2025."
"This improvement stems from a combination of stronger budget revenues following upward revisions to nominal GDP, along with modest new spending in the update itself."
"We do not expect material changes to 2026-27 borrowing projections, with T-bills able to absorb new spending measures."
"The new Canada Strong Fund will also require ~$8bn/yr in funding (through 28-29) with its $25bn endowment spread over three years."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver slides as stalled US-Iran talks keep the US Dollar supported.
- Rising Oil prices fuel inflation risks and push yields higher, weighing on non-yielding metals.
- XAG/USD remains capped below key SMAs on the daily chart, keeping the near-term bias bearish.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a downside bias on Tuesday, down over 2.5%, as a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook continues to weigh on price action. Rising inflation risks, driven by elevated Oil prices amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, are pushing US Treasury yields higher, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $73.25, its lowest level since April 13.
Meanwhile, a lack of progress in US-Iran talks to end the war keeps the US Dollar (USD) firmly supported, adding further pressure on XAG/USD. While Silver typically benefits from geopolitical tensions, rising expectations of tighter monetary policy by global central banks remain a key headwind for the metal, which is currently down over 20% since the US-Iran war began, despite recovering from its March low.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due on Wednesday, where traders widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. Inflation in the US remains sticky and above the Fed’s 2% target, with the recent surge in Oil prices adding further pressure. As a result, the focus will be on forward guidance, with markets awaiting clarity on the future path of interest rates. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as it trades below both the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which are closely aligned and showing early signs of a bearish crossover, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
Momentum indicators echo this soft tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 42 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line slipping just below zero, while a subdued Average Directional Index (ADX) around 12 suggests a weak and potentially range-bound trend.
On the upside, the moving average cluster between $78.50-$79.50, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs converge, marks initial resistance and would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish pressure. The next meaningful resistance is seen near the $90 psychological level.
On the downside, the $70 level marks initial support, followed by the 200-day SMA near $62.40, which stands out as the next major structural support.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Standard Chartered strategists Christopher Graham and John Davies highlight that growing labour market slack and fragile domestic demand should limit second-round inflation effects in the United Kingdom (UK). With vacancies at multi-year lows and payrolls down, workers’ wage bargaining power and firms’ pricing power are seen weaker than post-COVID, while the prospect of broad fiscal support to offset higher energy prices is viewed as much less likely than in 2022–2023.
Labour slack and weaker demand dynamics
"Indeed, growing labour market slack (with vacancies now at their lowest level in more than 10 years, and payrolls down 120k over the past 18 months), as well as fragile domestic demand, will likely mitigate the risk of second-round effects, with workers holding significantly less wage bargaining power and firms less pricing power than in the post-COVID environment."
"Added to this, the prospect of widespread fiscal support in the face of higher energy prices looks much less likely."
"The degree of support in 2022 and 2023 likely stretched out the inflation shock, while mitigating downside economic risks."
"This time around, the macroeconomic environment looks very different."
"Underlying demand was weaker back then, but it still shows there is precedent for looking through energy price shocks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD loses ground amid renewed risk aversion.
- Tensions between the US and Iran support demand for safe-haven assets.
- Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Fed and the RBNZ frame price action.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5890 on Tuesday, down 0.35% on the day, after failing to hold above the 0.5900 level. The pair moves lower as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets.
The Greenback benefits from persistent geopolitical uncertainty linked to the stalemate in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran. US President Donald Trump is unlikely to accept Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while the lack of progress on the nuclear issue continues to fuel risk aversion and underpin the US currency.
At the same time, the US Dollar is supported by expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets widely anticipate a pause at this week’s meeting, with rates expected to remain within the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the resilience of certain economic indicators, such as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to 92.8 in April, supports US yields and, in turn, the US currency.
Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Wednesday, closely watching for signals on the future policy path, even as markets continue to price in monetary easing later in the year.
On the New Zealand side, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finds some support from expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could maintain a cautious tone or even consider tightening to bring inflation back to its 2% target midpoint. Markets are already pricing in a potential rate hike as early as May, following stronger-than-expected inflation data.
This contrast between a steady Fed supported by elevated yields and a potentially more hawkish RBNZ helps limit the downside in NZD/USD.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.36% | 0.03% | 0.37% | 0.47% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.28% | -0.06% | 0.25% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.22% | -0.11% | 0.21% | 0.33% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.28% | -0.05% | 0.26% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | -0.36% | -0.28% | -0.22% | -0.28% | -0.34% | -0.03% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.34% | 0.32% | 0.47% | |
| NZD | -0.37% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.26% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.47% | -0.40% | -0.33% | -0.38% | -0.11% | -0.47% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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