Forex News

• Gold consolidates in a narrow range below the $5,200 mark during the Asian session.
• Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD.
• Reduced Fed rate cut bets offer support to the USD and cap the non-yielding commodity.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and trades below the $5,200 mark through the first half of the European session on Friday. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a large US naval and air power buildup in the Middle East. Moreover, US President Donald Trump laid out the case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying that he would not allow the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. This, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.

The US moved ahead with a 10% tariff on all non-exempt goods, the rate initially announced by Trump on Friday, following the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs rather than the 15% he promised a day later. However, a White House official said the administration is working to raise levies to 15%, fueling worries about retaliatory measures and the economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains. Given Trump's mercurial turns over tariffs, the anxiety over how long this rate will continue keeps investors on edge and turns out to be another factor that underpins the traditional safe-haven Gold.

Meanwhile, traders trimmed their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further. Moreover, officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation does not cool. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) well within striking distance of the monthly peak and caps the upside for the non-yielding Gold. Furthermore, the US and Iran agreed to more nuclear talks, easing concerns about potential hostilities. This contributes to keeping a lid on the commodity and warrants caution for bulls.

The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing some impetus to the Gold heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register gains for the fourth week in a row, and the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into.

XAU/USD 1-hour chart

Gold bulls struggle to build on strength beyond $5,200

The range-bound price action witnessed over the past three days or so constitutes the formation of a rectangle pattern on intraday charts. Meanwhile, the Gold holds above the rising 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,176, keeping the short-term uptrend structure intact despite repeated intraday pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 50, reflecting balanced momentum but not signaling downside pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly above the zero line, with the MACD line still over the signal line, which reinforces a modest upside tone rather than a momentum-driven rally.

Initial resistance emerges at the recent hourly highs around $5,195, where prior advances stalled, and intraday sellers reappeared. A convincing break above this barrier would open the way toward the next upside area near $5,210, where the latest upward leg would begin to look extended. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 100-hour SMA around $5,176, with a sustained drop below this level exposing deeper support at $5,165, aligned with recent closing lows and the lower end of the latest consolidation band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• AUD/USD attracts fresh buyers as the RBA’s hawkish stance continues to underpin the AUD.
• Trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks weigh on the global risk sentiment, capping the pair.
• Reduced Fed rate cut bets support the USD and warrant caution for bulls ahead of the US PPI.

The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction on Friday and climbs back closer to over a two-week top, around the 0.7110-0.7115 region, during the early part of the European session. Spot prices remain close to a two-year peak set earlier this month and seem poised to register gains for the sixth consecutive week.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues with its relative outperformance in the wake of an increasingly hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In fact, traders are now pricing in the possibility of another interest rate hike by the central bank in May. The bets were reaffirmed by the hot CPI report for January, released earlier this week, underpinning the AUD and supporting the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, investors remain on edge as geopolitical risks remain in play amid a huge American naval and air power buildup in the Middle East. Apart from this, trade uncertainties weigh on the market sentiment and might cap the risk-sensitive Aussie. The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains close to the monthly high amid the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook and might cap gains for the AUD/USD pair.

In fact, traders trimmed their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further. Moreover, officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation does not cool. This warrants caution for the AUD/USD bulls and before positioning for any further near-term appreciation.

The market focus now shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members would drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair is to the upside, and any corrective slides are likely to be short-lived.

• Silver price climbs above $90 as AI risks, lower bond yields have boosted demand of precious metals.
• The concerns over sustainable AI capex have resulted in a sharp decline in Nvidia’s share price.
• US-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday concluded on a positive note.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 2.4% to near $90.60 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal strengthens as escalating concerns over valuations of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks have prompted demand for safe-haven assets.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 tumbled to near 6,900, and its futures have fallen further during the day, following an over 5% decline in the share price of Nvidia, which is the world’s largest producer of AI and sophisticated chips. Though the company posted stellar first quarter numbers of 2026, investors worry about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure (capex), and overcapacity risks.

In addition to AI valuation concerns, sliding United States (US) treasury yields have also improved the Silver’s appeal. 10-year US bond yields have fallen to near 4%, the lowest level seen in over a year. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets prompt demand for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

On the geopolitical front, the meeting between the US and Iran over nuclear issues in Geneva on Thursday concluded on a positive note. Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said in early trade that talks between both nations on nuclear issues have made "significant progress,” and they will resume next week in Vienna. Signs of easing geopolitical woes often diminish demand for safe-haven assets.

In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades higher above $90 as of writing. The near-term bias tilts mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is around $85 and underpins the recent rebound from the mid-$70s area. The sequence of higher lows from $73.64 through the current consolidation supports a recovery structure rather than a continuation of the prior sharp decline from above $110.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating a sideways trend.

Initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA near $85.00, with a break below exposing the psychological level of $80 and then the February 20 low around $77.50 area as deeper downside levels.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the recent plateau around $92.50, and a daily close above would open room toward $96.00 and then the psychological $100.00 handle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD is trading close to 1.18 as markets await key Euro area inflation data. The bank expects Euro area HICP inflation to edge up slightly to 1.73% year-on-year, with core inflation steady at 2.2%. Softer preliminary inflation prints from France, Spain and Germany could add downward pressure on Euro rates.

Euro inflation expectations support stability

"In the euro area, February's flash inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain will give important hints ahead of next week's euro area inflation release. We expect euro area HICP inflation to rise marginally from 1.69% y/y to 1.73% y/y, remaining at 1.7% y/y when rounded. Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% y/y."

"Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% y/y. Energy inflation is expected to rise due to lagged effects of January's energy price and higher fuel prices in February, which is the main reason we expect a small rise in the headline at the second decimal."

"Monthly momentum in services inflation will be crucial, given its notable weakness in January."

"EUR/USD continues to trade near the 1.18 level, while EUR/SEK remains below 10.70."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)