Forex News
- EUR/USD steady as traders betting on Fed easing next month.
- Fed cut odds jump to 87% after dovish Williams and Waller despite mixed US inflation and jobs data.
- Eurozone HICP surprises higher as ECB signals end of easing cycle, supporting further EUR/USD upside.
EUR/USD steadies during Friday’s North American session set to finish the week and November’s in positive territory with gains o 0.81% and 0.59%, respectively as traders seem certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The pair trades at 1.1601 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1555.
Euro ends week and month higher as dovish Fed signals outweigh mixed US data
The US Dollar treads water amid growing speculation for a rate cut. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds for a 25-basis points reduction to the fed funds rate at 87% for the December meeting. The repricing was triggered by dovish comments of New York Fed John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who favored reducing borrowing costs at the December meeting.
Data was mixed during the week. Inflation in the producer side stabilized, while jobs data revealed by the US Department of Labor, showed that the number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits, trimmed compared to the previous print.
Across the pond, Retail Sales in Germany missed estimates of October, while the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November exceeded forecasts, approaching the 3% threshold. In France, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 was aligned with estimates and the preliminary reading, while Spanish HICP broke the 3% threshold.
Given the backdrop, the EUR/USD path of least resistance is tilted to the upside, as the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that its easing cycle was over, while the Fed is expected to cut in December.
Next week’s US economic calendar will be packed, featuring the November ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Industrial Production, the ADP Employment Change report, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29.
Euro Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.69% | 1.38% | -0.09% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | -0.39% | 1.63% | 0.22% | 0.39% | 0.38% | 0.48% | |
| GBP | 0.69% | 0.39% | 2.03% | 0.61% | 0.76% | 0.77% | 0.87% | |
| JPY | -1.38% | -1.63% | -2.03% | -1.44% | -1.24% | -1.26% | -1.19% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.22% | -0.61% | 1.44% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.39% | -0.76% | 1.24% | -0.12% | -0.00% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.38% | -0.77% | 1.26% | -0.16% | 0.00% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.48% | -0.87% | 1.19% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily market movers: Euro poised to extend gains amid Dollar weakness
- The shared currency is propelled by a weak US Dollar as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, is down 0.08% at 99.44.
- German’s HICP annual rate rose by 2.6% above forecasts of 2.4%, up from 2.3% in September. Other data in France, GDP for Q3 2025 rose by 0.1% QoQ beating forecasts and up from 0% in Q2.
- Finally, Spain’s HICP expanded by 3.1% YoY in November, down from 3.2% a month ago, but exceeded forecasts of 2.9%.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD subdued around 1.1600 waiting for catalyst
EUR/USD continues to trade sideways, with buyers unable to decisively break above the 1.1600 threshold to extend the advance toward the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.1620/1.1643. Momentum remains mildly positive, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although the indicator has flattened—suggesting that consolidation is likely to persist in the near term.
A clear breakout above the 50-/100-day SMA cluster would expose 1.1650, and once cleared, open the way for a test of the 1.1700 handle.
On the flip side, the Euro tumbling below 1.1550 increases the risk of a slide toward 1.1500. Further weakness would expose the November 5 swing low at 1.1468, followed by the 200-day SMA near 1.1431.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold breaks above $4,200 as markets price 87% odds of a December Fed rate cut.
- Dovish comments from Fed’s Williams and Waller strengthen expectations for continued easing policy.
- Russia–Ukraine peace progress may cap gains, though soft US inflation keeps Gold’s bias intact.
Gold (XAU/USD) rises over 1% on Friday amid a scarce economic docket, but traders are pricing further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the next meeting, pushing the non-yielding metal past the $4,200 mark for the first time in the last ten days.
Bullion surges over 1% in thin holiday trade as easing expectations climb toward 87% despite mixed US data
Expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue its easing cycle increased as the CME FedWatch Tool shows odds for a 0.25% reduction at the December 9-10 meeting at 87%,. Meanwhile, Fed officials remained muted since Wednesday, heading for Thanksgiving, as the blackout period begins on Saturday.
Policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remain split about the next move. Nonetheless, the latest comments from New York Fed John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller poured cold water on the hawks and strengthened the doves' position ahead of the meeting.
US data has been mixed, with inflation on the producer side seeming to be stalling after the PPI rose to 3.1% YoY in July, before printing back-to-back readings of 2.7%. Even though this opens the door for further easing, the latest Initial Jobless Claims print shows the jobs market remains solid, despite giving signs of weakness.
Given the backdrop, Gold prices could continue to edge up. However, developments pointing towards peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, led by the White House, could cap bullion’s advance amid an obvious sentiment shift.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the November ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Industrial Production, the ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29.
Daily market moves: Gold advances, but threatened by Russia-Ukraine war de-escalation
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance versus six currencies, is down 0.04% at 99.49. At the same time, US Treasury yields recovered, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield up three basis points to 4.023%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Gold prices, are also up two and a half basis points to 1.785%.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine and US delegations will meet this week to work out a formula for peace and security, as discussed in Geneva. Meanwhile, Russia wants to move towards peace in Ukraine, despite its belief that Ukrainian President Zelensky is not legitimate.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that President Donald Trump’s proposal “could serve as a basis” for future negotiations but emphasized that no final version exists. Putin reiterated that hostilities will cease only if Ukrainian forces withdraw.
- Physical Gold exports from Hong Kong to China dipped, an indication that the Bullion might remain subdued in the near term.
Technical analysis: Buyers push Gold price above $4,200, eyes on record high
Gold price cleared $4,200, poised to test the November 13 high of $4,245 ahead of the $4,250 figure. Buyers are gathering momentum, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting further upside.
Given the backdrop, if XAU/USD climbs past $4,300, the next resistance would be the record high of $4,381. On the flip side, if Gold tumbles below $4,200, the next support would be the November 25 low of $4,109, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,078.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Silver surges to a fresh all-time high above $56 as dovish Fed expectations lift metals.
- Industrial and investment demand continues to underpin the rally as Silver heads for a seventh straight monthly gain.
- A technical breakout from a falling wedge keeps bulls in firm control, with momentum indicators favouring further upside.
Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to a fresh all-time high on Friday, buoyed by dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations alongside strong industrial and investment demand. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $56.40, with prices up over 12% this week and on track to log a seventh straight monthly gain.
A tightening supply backdrop is adding further support to the rally, with reports indicating that inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have dropped to their lowest level since 2015. Market data also show that physical Silver turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has slipped to a nine-year low.
According to the Silver Institute, 2025 is on track to mark the fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit, with global output from mining and recycling still struggling to keep pace with rising demand from solar, electronics and investment channels.
From a technical standpoint, bulls remain firmly in control, driving XAG/USD deeper into uncharted territory after a clean breakout from the falling-wedge formation. The rally comes after a period of subdued momentum, marking a clear shift back in favour of upward continuation.
XAG/USD continues to trade comfortably above all major moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing uptrend. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $50.72 is rising steadily and remains the first layer of dynamic support, while the 50-day and 100-day SMAs sit much lower.
On the downside, any pullback is likely to attract fresh dip-buying interest, with initial support at the $55.00-$54.00 zone. A break below this area would shift attention toward the $50.70-$50.00 region, reinforced by the rising 21-day SMA.
Momentum indicators support the bullish narrative. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) extends above the Signal line, with both in positive territory and a widening histogram, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 71, entering overbought territory, although there are no clear signs of exhaustion.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- WTI edges higher while markets track diplomatic progress between Moscow and Kyiv.
- Investors focus on Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to maintain its early-2026 production freeze.
- Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December continue to support Oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $59.30 on Friday at the time of writing, posting a 0.50% daily gain as investors adopt a cautious stance while monitoring ongoing efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
Market participants note that any potential breakthrough could eventually ease sanctions on Russian Crude Oil and release some restricted supply, although meaningful changes would likely be gradual and contingent on a concrete deal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that proposals conveyed by US President Donald Trump could help shape a future security framework, expressing openness to further negotiations. On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed that Ukrainian and US delegations will meet this week to deepen the Geneva-based framework aimed at stabilizing the situation and establishing security guarantees.
Markets are also turning their attention to Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting. The group is expected to maintain its plan to pause production increases in early 2026, while discussions may shift toward a broader review of long-term member capacity.
Oil prices also benefit from a more accommodative monetary outlook. Expectations of easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have risen sharply. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign over an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, compared with 39% a week ago. This prospect weighs on the US Dollar (USD), adding support to the USD-dominated Crude Oil.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold hovers near two-week highs as traders weigh Fed policy signals.
- Geopolitical uncertainty stays elevated as Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain fragile.
- Technical setup shows XAU/USD attempting a breakout above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Friday after a bout of volatility sparked by the CME trading outage briefly dragged prices lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,209, with the metal on track to notch its fourth straight monthly gain.
Overall sentiment remains tilted to the upside as traders price in a greater likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December, following dovish-leaning remarks from key policymakers earlier in the week. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain fragile, keeping geopolitical risks elevated and offering a supportive backdrop for Gold.
Market movers: CME halt, Fed rate cut bets and geopolitics in focus
- A technical glitch at one of CME Group’s data centers halted trading on its electronic platforms, resulting in a shutdown across global currency, commodity, and futures markets. Gold futures were stuck near $4,221 during the outage, and analysts warn that volatility may pick up once full trading resumes, especially amid month-end positioning and thin post-holiday liquidity.
- Dovish Federal Reserve commentary this week prompted traders to ramp up December rate-cut bets after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that a policy easing next month would be appropriate given signs of cooling in the labour market and softer economic activity, while fellow Governor Stephen Miran argued that rising unemployment reflects overly tight policy and repeated his support for larger rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told The Wall Street Journal she backs a cut at next month’s meeting, warning that the labour market is now more at risk than an inflation flare-up.
- However, uncertainty persists as several other policymakers maintain a more cautious stance, stressing that inflation remains sticky and warning that cutting rates too quickly could risk reigniting price pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a December rate cut.
- On the geopolitical front, Russia-Ukraine peace efforts remain in focus after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signalled Kyiv’s readiness to advance a US-backed framework earlier this week. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a guarded tone on Thursday, saying the proposal “could serve as a basis” for future talks but stressing that no final version exists and that hostilities would cease only if Ukrainian forces withdraw.
Technical analysis: Gold consolidates below $4,200 while momentum improves
XAU/USD is attempting a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, with prices holding just above the upper boundary of the formation. However, the $4,200 psychological level continues to cap immediate upside attempts, and a decisive daily close above this barrier is needed to confirm bullish continuation.
On the downside, initial support is seen at $4,150, while stronger support lies near the lower boundary of the triangle, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges.
Momentum signals are improving, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing north around 60, indicating strengthening buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
After a quarter severely impacted by trade tensions, the Canadian economy returned to growth in Q3 with an annualized increase of 2.6%, surprising economists by a wide margin. Trade data was the main driver of this volatility, significantly boosting growth in the third quarter after holding it back in the second, National Bank of Canada economists note.
Trade-driven GDP surge seen as unsustainable
"This time around, the sharp drop in imports alone accounts for all the growth in the quarter, while exports essentially stagnated after last quarter's strong decline. We note that Statistics Canada pointed out that, given the U.S. government shutdown that took place in October, it did not receive data on Canadian exports to the U.S. for the final month of the quarter and thus resorted to special estimates. As a result, we will keep an eye on potentially larger than normal revisions to trade statistics in the coming months. In our view, it would be very premature to conclude, based on this morning's report, that the worst is over for the Canadian economy."
"Final domestic demand essentially stagnated during the quarter, after admittedly surprisingly strong growth in the second quarter. Construction and government spending limited the damage, but consumption, the heavyweight, declined. Indeed, household consumption was down 0.4%, its worst quarterly performance since the pandemic. Such a development was predictable given sluggish retail sales in a more challenging labour market. What was more surprising was the extent of the decline in investment in machinery and equipment after the carnage of the previous quarter. Over two quarters, these investments are down 14.9% annualized and now stand at their lowest level since 2021Q1."
"Despite stronger-than-expected growth, our assessment of the economic situation has not changed dramatically. Consumers have taken a hit in a fragile labour market, and uncertainty is holding back investment. Economic growth was certainly strong in September at 0.2%, but the 0.3% decline in October, according to preliminary figures, could mean disappointing economic performance in Q4. This morning's report does not change our view that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines. Despite a still fragile economy, inflationary pressures are too persistent for it to do more."
- GBP/JPY sees limited movement as traders react to firmer Tokyo CPI and shifting BoJ expectations.
- Tokyo CPI stays above 2%, reinforcing speculation that the BoJ could consider a rate hike in December.
- Yen stays pressured by fiscal concerns after Japan approved a large stimulus package.
The British Pound (GBP) treads water against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday as the latest Tokyo inflation data keeps the Bank of Japan (BoJ) firmly on a tightening path.
At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 206.70, though the cross remains on track to log its third straight weekly gain as the Yen stays under sustained pressure amid fiscal concerns following the approval of a large stimulus package.
The Statistics Bureau of Japan reported that Tokyo’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in November, matching market expectations and easing from 2.8% in October. The measure that excludes both food and energy increased 2.8% YoY in November, unchanged from the 2.8% pace recorded in October.
Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.8% YoY in November, coming in above the 2.7% forecast and matching the 2.8% reading in October.
The data underscored sticky price pressures holding well above the BoJ’s 2% target. After weeks of fading conviction in a near-term hike, traders are now reassessing the possibility that the central bank could raise rates at the December 18-19 policy meeting.
The ongoing weakness of the Yen is also in focus, with markets increasingly viewing currency depreciation as a factor that may push policymakers toward tightening as they monitor exchange-rate-driven inflation risks.
Japan’s economic calendar also featured labour-market and consumption indicators. The Unemployment Rate stood at 2.6% in October, slightly above the 2.5% forecast and unchanged from September. Retail Trade rose 1.7% YoY in October, beating the 0.8% forecast and picking up from the 0.2% increase seen in September.
On the UK side, the session remains light on major data releases, but recent weeks have seen expectations build that the Bank of England (BoE) could move toward a rate cut in December. The shift has been driven by softer inflation momentum, with BoE policymaker Megan Greene saying on Thursday that the latest inflation news has been “to the downside.”
Greene also noted that most policy rules suggest keeping rates steady, while acknowledging that slack has opened up in both the labour market and the broader economy.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.48% | -0.26% | -0.23% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.07% | -0.48% | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.49% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.38% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.49% | 0.38% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.17% | -0.21% | 0.03% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.23% | -0.03% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.06% | -0.32% | -0.09% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD pulls back as thin liquidity and the Autumn Budget spark profit-taking near recent highs.
- Fed cut odds rise to 87% after dovish New York Fed John Williams.
- Evening-star pattern and weakening RSI signal a deeper pullback toward key support levels.
GBP/USD dips during the North American session on Friday, despite heading into the end of the week with gains of almost 1%, after the financial markets digest the Autumn Budget. The pair trades at 1.3221 after retreating from a daily high of 1.3244.
Sterling pares weekly gains as dovish Fed bets rise but BoE cut expectations weigh on Cable
The US economic docket was shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday. Nevertheless, softer inflation prints, with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) for September diving from 2.9% to 2.6% and a dip in Initial Jobless Claims from 222K in the week ending November 15 to 216K for the last week finishing November 22, strengthened the case for a pause on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing cycle.
Nevertheless, dovish comments by the New York Fed John Williams increased the chances of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US central bank at the December meeting. As of writing, odds stand at 87%, according to the FedWatch tool.
In the UK, Rachel Reeves pushed back against critics of the government’s spending budget, which would fund extra welfare spending by hiking taxes. They plan to raise taxes by £26 billion.
Following the release of the budget, Cable rose past 1.3200, but since peaking at 1.3268, the pair retreated with sellers expecting a break below 1.3200. It is worth noting that money markets are pricing in a 25-bps rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), hence further downside fort GBP/USD is expected.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
GBP/USD seems to have peaked, as it is forming an ‘evening star’ candle chart pattern, after buyers failed to reclaim key resistance at the 50-day SMA at 1.3279. A daily close below 1.3200 could pave the way for further downside, with traders eyeing the 20-day SMA at 1.3139 seen as key support ahead of 1.3100 and of 1.3010, November’s bottom.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems poised to turn bearish, aiming lower towards its neutral line, indicating that sellers are gathering momentum.
(This story was corrected on November 28 at 16:02 GMT to say that the previous reading of the core US PPI was 2.9%, not 2.8%.)
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.55% | 1.39% | -0.18% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | -0.33% | 1.63% | 0.05% | 0.37% | 0.39% | 0.57% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.33% | 1.98% | 0.38% | 0.69% | 0.73% | 0.91% | |
| JPY | -1.39% | -1.63% | -1.98% | -1.60% | -1.26% | -1.24% | -1.09% | |
| CAD | 0.18% | -0.05% | -0.38% | 1.60% | 0.27% | 0.35% | 0.52% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.37% | -0.69% | 1.26% | -0.27% | 0.03% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.39% | -0.73% | 1.24% | -0.35% | -0.03% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.57% | -0.91% | 1.09% | -0.52% | -0.22% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Canada’s GDP delivers a strong upside surprise in Q3, supporting the Canadian Dollar.
- The Euro trades without a clear direction amid divergent indicators in the Eurozone.
- EUR/CAD falls to 1.6180 on Friday, down 0.50% on the day.
EUR/CAD trades around 1.6180 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.50%, as macroeconomic developments strengthen the Canadian Dollar (CAD) while leaving the Euro (EUR) lacking momentum. The European currency reacts to mixed data, whereas the Canadian economy showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in the third quarter.
In the Eurozone, Friday’s releases paint a contradictory picture. In France, the preliminary Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HICP) remained subdued at 0.8% YoY in November, below expectations and unchanged from the previous month. Italy delivered a more encouraging signal, with Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising 0.1% QoQ, slightly above forecasts, and the annual rate improving to 0.6% YoY. Preliminary November inflation figures showed a slowdown, with Italian HICP easing to 1.1% YoY.
Germany adds another layer of mixed signals. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remains steady at 2.3% YoY in November, while the harmonised HICP increases to 2.6% YoY, exceeding expectations. Labour-market conditions remain broadly stable, with unemployment rising by only 1,000 people, keeping the Unemployment Rate at 6.3%.
With such uneven signals, the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy may stay on hold in the coming months.
By contrast, the Loonie benefits from a clearly stronger macroeconomic backdrop. According to Statistics Canada, Q3 GDP grew 0.6% QoQ, reversing the previous quarter’s contraction, while the annualised rate surged to 2.6%, well above consensus. The details show that external trade was the main driver of growth, as exports rose slightly while imports fell sharply, even though domestic demand weakened.
Analysts at TD Securities note that this robust GDP reading raises the bar for any further easing by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Markets increasingly expect the central bank to adopt a wait-and-see stance after cutting its policy rate in October. The bank also highlights that the CAD “remains structurally cheap above 1.40”, suggesting that continued economic firming could support the currency further.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.18% | -0.06% | -0.52% | -0.27% | -0.21% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.13% | -0.11% | -0.57% | -0.31% | -0.26% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.71% | -0.49% | -0.39% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.25% | -0.45% | -0.21% | -0.16% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.71% | 0.45% | 0.24% | 0.30% | 0.45% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.31% | 0.49% | 0.21% | -0.24% | 0.06% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.39% | 0.16% | -0.30% | -0.06% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.24% | -0.00% | -0.45% | -0.19% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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