Forex News
- GBP/USD rises ahead of the UK Autumn Budget due later on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar struggles as softer data reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in more than 84% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3190 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders await the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, to deliver the Autumn Budget later in the day.
The British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil tens of billions of pounds in new tax hikes, a budget that will test her credibility with both bond investors and lawmakers pushing for increased welfare spending. A more responsible fiscal stance can strengthen long-term confidence in UK assets, offering mild support to the Pound Sterling (GBP).
Just over a year after implementing £40 billion ($52.7 billion) in tax increases, the largest since the 1990s, and billed as a one-off. Reeves is now compelled to pursue additional revenue-raising measures amid a likely downgrade to Britain’s economic outlook and rising debt-servicing costs.
UK softer inflation eased to 3.6% in October and strengthened expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Markets now assign an 80% probability of a 25-bp cut in December, pushing gilt yields lower ahead of the budget.
The GBP/USD pair also gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggles, with softer United States (US) economic data boosting expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in more than 84% odds that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 50% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby presents the prepared remarks on the policy statement and responds to media questions at the press conference after the November monetary policy announcement.
Following its November policy meeting, the RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 2.5% to 2.25%, as widely expected.
RBNZ press conference key quotes
Won't be disclosing votes today.
Feel risks are balanced.
We are in a great position to mitigate risks.
Central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026.
See signs labour market stabilising.
We're now seeing economic indicators picking up across all high frequency indicators.
Current cash rate supportive and stimulatory.
Has been a challenging year for the economy.
We retain full optionality on cash rate.
Every option on the table.
We are a bit worried about inflation risks globally.
Committee more comfortable with inflation expectations than earlier in year.
We are at the low point in the labor market dynamic.
2026 is going to be a period when inflation falling toward 2%, economy is recovering.
Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Press Conference
Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ)monetary policy decision, the Governor gives a press conference explaining the rationale behind the decision. The comments may influence the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Read more.Next release: Wed Nov 26, 2025 02:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby’s press conference.
This section below was published at 01:00 GMT following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcements.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% from 2.5% after concluding the November monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
The decision aligned with the market expectations.
Summary of the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review (MPR)
Annual consumers price inflation increased to 3 percent in the September quarter.
Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term.
However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2 percent by mid-2026.
Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced.
Economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up.
Lower interest rates are encouraging household spending, and the labour market is stabilising.
Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced.
Minutes of the RBNZ interest rate meeting
Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves.
The committee noted that a reduction in the OCR would help to underpin consumer and business confidence and lean against the risk that the economy recovers more slowly than needed to meet the inflation objective.
The Committee discussed the options of holding the OCR at 2.5 percent and lowering the OCR to 2.25 percent.
The case for holding the OCR emphasised the considerable reduction in the OCR to date.
Committee noted that a reduction in the OCR would help to underpin consumer and business confidence.
The case for a further reduction in the OCR emphasised significant excess capacity in the economy.
Committee voted by 5 to 1 to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.
Significant spare capacity remains.
RBNZ updated economic forecasts
RBNZ sees official cash rate at 2.25% in March 2026 (pvs 2.55%).
RBNZ sees official cash rate at 2.28% in December 2026 (pvs 2.62%).
NZD/USD reaction to the RBNZ interest rate decision
The New Zealand Dollar picks up fresh bids in an immediate reaction to the RBNZ interest rate decision. The NZD/USD pair currently trades at 0.5655, up 0.64% on the day.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.22% | -0.73% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.69% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.12% | -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.67% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.13% | -0.28% | -0.79% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.70% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.16% | -0.52% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.73% | 0.69% | 0.67% | 0.79% | 0.70% | 0.52% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published on November 25 at 20:15 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut the key interest rate to 2.25% on Wednesday.
- Revision to the RBNZ’s OCR forecast and Governor Hawkesby’s comments will be closely scrutinized.
- The RBNZ policy announcements are expected to inject volatility around the New Zealand Dollar.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.25% from 2.5%, following the conclusion of the November monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
The decision will be announced at 01:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and followed by RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby’s press conference at 02:00 GMT.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) will likely experience a big reaction to the central bank’s policy announcements.
What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision?
Following a standard 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in August and a surprise 50-bps move in October, the RBNZ is expected to deliver a hat-trick, with a 25-bps reduction fully baked in for the November monetary policy meeting.
The central bank decided to opt for a big rate cut in its last policy decision in the face of a slowing economy and confidence that inflation was under control.
In its October Monetary Policy Review (MPR), the RBNZ noted that the “committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2 percent target midpoint in the medium term.”
Therefore, another rate cut on Wednesday would come as no surprise. Hence, all eyes will be on the discussions among the policymakers on further monetary policy easing heading into 2026.
The revisions to the OCR projection in the first half of next year will also be closely scrutinized to gauge the bank’s path forward on rates.
Since the October 8 meeting, New Zealand’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated in the third quarter (Q3), coming in at 3.0%, in line with the forecasts and at the top end of the central bank’s 1% to 3% target range.
However, the RBNZ made it clear in October that inflation was ticking higher, but noted that spare capacity in the economy should bring it back to 2% by mid-2026, suggesting that policymakers don’t expect inflation to be persistent. On top of that, the annual non-tradeable inflation decreased to 3.5% in Q3, compared with 3.7% in the second quarter.
Additionally, the RBNZ’s monetary conditions survey showed on November 11 that two-year inflation expectations, seen as the time frame when the central bank policy action will filter through to prices, steadied at 2.28% in Q4 2025.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3% in Q3 from 5.2% in the second quarter, according to the official data released by Statistics New Zealand on November 4. The figure came in line with the market consensus.
Amidst expectations that underlying inflation is largely slowing, another rate cut by the RBNZ is justified.
Economists at Westpac NZ said: “We expect a 25bp cut in the OCR to 2.25%. We see a downward revision in the projected OCR track of around 30-35bp, with a low point in the projection of around 2.20% in the first half of 2026. The implication is a mild and data-dependent easing bias for next year.”
How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The NZD/USD pair is miring in seven-month lows as the RBNZ event risk looms. Heightened expectations of a November rate cut have weighed heavily on the NZD since the end of October.
If the central bank downgrades its inflation and/or OCR forecasts while retaining the easing bias, the Kiwi Dollar could extend the current downside.
On the contrary, the NZD could witness a big relief rally should the RBNZ signal the end of the rate-cutting cycle amid an improving economic outlook and receding US tariff fears.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:
“From a near-term technical perspective, bearish potential remains intact for the Kiwi pair as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains vulnerable well beneath the midline.”
“If sellers flex their muscles on a dovish RBNZ cut, the NZD/USD pair could drop further toward the falling trendline support at 0.5550. Further south, the 0.5500 round level and the April low of 0.5486 could be tested. On the flip side, the pair needs to scale the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5663 on a sustained basis for any meaningful recovery. The next relevant topside targets align at the 50-day SMA at 0.5735 and the 0.5800 threshold,” Dhwani adds.
RBNZ FAQs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) head of international department said on Wednesday that there is a lot of uncertainty about where neutral rates are and where they are going.
Key quotes
There is a lot of uncertainty about where neutral rates are, where they are going.
Australia's neutral rates also influenced by global factors, may have risen since pandemic.
Compressed equity risk premia, credit spreads meant financial conditions in Australia were easier than otherwise this year.
Concerns about US dollar's safe haven status seem to have been overstated, at least for now.
There is little evidence of significant reallocation away from US Dollar assets.
Need to be prepared for potential episodes of volatility and potential market dislocation.
Market reaction
The AUD/USD pair is adding 0.42% on the day to trade at 0.6495, at the press time.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is preparing markets for a potential interest rate hike as soon as in December, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
A change in BoJ tone over the past week has shifted focus back to inflationary risks of a weak Japanese Yen from earlier concerns over the US economy, comments aimed at reminding markets a December rate hike was still a prospect.
Market reaction
The USD/JPY pair is losing 0.10% on the day to trade at 155.95, at the press time.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Gold regains positive traction on Wednesday amid rising bets for a Fed rate cut in December.
- The USD hangs near a one-week low amid dovish Fed expectations, benefiting the commodity.
- A positive risk tone and hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could cap the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's two-way price move and climbs back closer to the $4,150 level during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US macro data released on Tuesday pointed to signs of cooling inflation and gave the Federal Reserve (Fed) more headroom to ease rates further. Moreover, several Fed officials backed the case for a third rate cut this year in December recently. The outlook, in turn, drags the US Dollar (USD) to a one-week low and benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the prospect of lower US interest rates boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from the upbeat mood across the global equity markets and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven Gold. Adding to this, hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine contribute to cap a sustained rise in the precious metal. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside as investors now look to more US data for some impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold retains positive bias as dovish Fed expectations undermine USD
- The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday that the US Producer Prices Index rose 2.7% in September from a year earlier, slightly above the 2.6% previous and broadly in line with expectations. Stripping out food and energy, the core gauge was up 2.9% over the year compared to the 2.7% forecast and the 2.8% increase recorded in August.
- Separately, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in September. The reading was below consensus estimates for a 0.4% growth and follows a 0.6% increase in August. Adding to this, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a seven-month low in November amid concerns about a sluggish labor market.
- Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said last Friday that interest rates could fall in the near term without putting the central bank's inflation goal at risk. Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that the job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point interest rate cut at the December meeting.
- Governor Stephen Miran echoed the dovish view and said in a television interview on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market and the economy call for large interest rate cuts to get monetary policy to neutral. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next month.
- The US Dollar fell to a nearly one-week low in the aftermath of the rather unimpressive data, which was delayed in the wake of the longest-ever US government shutdown, and rising dovish Fed bets. This, in turn, assists the non-yielding Gold to regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, following the previous day's two-way price move.
- President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine is ready to advance a US-backed framework for ending the war with Russia. Moreover, US President Donald Trump backed away from imposing any deadline to reach a peace deal and said that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will be going to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin next week.
- Traders now look forward to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the delayed release of Durable Goods Orders, along with the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Chicago PMI. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and producing short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.
Gold seems poised to climb further and aim toward reclaiming $4,200
The commodity defended a confluence support last week – comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an upward-sloping trend-line extending from late October. The subsequent move up, along with positive oscillators on 4-hour/daily charts, backs the case for a further near-term upward move. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the $4,159 region, will reaffirm the positive outlook and lift Gold price to the $4,177-4,178 intermediate hurdle en route to the $4,200 round figure. Sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the momentum toward testing the monthly swing high, around the $4,245 zone.
On the flip side, any pullback might continue to find decent support near the $4,110-4,100 region. A convincing break below the latter would expose the aforementioned confluence, currently pegged near the $4,034-4,033 zone, below which the Gold price could drop to the $4,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a fall toward last week's swing low, around the $3,968-3,967 area. The XAU/USD could extend the fall further toward the $3,931 region, the $3,900 mark, and late October trough, around the $3,886 region.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD gains as the US Dollar struggles after softer data reinforcing Fed rate cut likelihood for December.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in more than 84% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- The Euro finds support amid cautious sentiment over the European Central Bank’s policy outlook.
EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1580 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair is gaining as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure, with softer United States (US) economic data boosting expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in more than 84% odds that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 50% probability that markets priced a week ago.
The US Census Bureau released US Retail Sales on Tuesday, which rose by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, slowing from the 0.6% increase seen in August, indicating more cautious consumer spending. Retail Sales Control Group declined 0.1%, against the expectations of a 0.3% rise and the previous 0.6% growth. Separately, the Conference Board reported a sharp deterioration in household sentiment, with Consumer Confidence sliding 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year in September, matching expectations and August’s reading and suggesting that inflationary pressures have stabilized. Core PPI eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, undershooting forecasts of 2.7%.
Additionally, the EUR/USD pair gains ground as the Euro (EUR) draws support from cautious sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. Traders expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, citing a resilient economy and inflation near target.
ECB Governor and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Monday that the central bank is also monitoring the strong rise in service prices, noting that December projections will offer clearer insight into whether the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- NZD/USD rises to around 0.5665 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- RBNZ cut its benchmark cash rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on Wednesday.
- US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% in September, softer than expected.
The NZD/USD pair climbs to near 0.5665 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.
As widely expected, the RBNZ decided to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% at its November meeting on Wednesday. The Kiwi attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the RBNZ rate decision. The move came amid signs of slowing economic growth, including a soft housing market. Traders will closely monitor the press conference at 2.00 GMT. Policymakers were expected to provide some insight into the rate decision in between.
Softer-than-expected US economic reports released on Tuesday have weighed on the Greenback. Data released by the US Census Bureau showed that Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.2% MoM in September, versus the 0.6% increase prior. This figure came in below the market's expectation of 0.4%.
Meanwhile, private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs for the four weeks ending November 8, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Tuesday. This reading indicated further signs of a weakening US labor market, which boosts the expectation for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December and drags the US Dollar lower. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a quarter percentage point cut from the Fed in December, up from 80% earlier this week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The US Durable Goods Orders, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago PMI, and the Fed Beige Book will be published later on Wednesday. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- AUD/NZD slides 0.5% to near 1.1430 as the RBNZ has reduced its OCR by 25 bps to 2.25%.
- The RBNZ was expected to loosen its monetary policy conditions further amid weak job market and declining GDP growth.
- Faster-than-expected Australian CPI growth has strengthened the Australian Dollar.
The AUD/NZD pair slides vertically to near 1.1430 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces intense selling pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25%.
This is the third time in a row when the RBNZ has reduced its interest rates. The New Zealand (NZ) central bank was expected to cut its OCR by quarter-to-a-percent as employment conditions and economic growth have been consistently deteriorating.
In the third quarter of the year, the NZ Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3%, the highest since the same quarter of 2020. And, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter.
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been outperforming its peers as the Aussie’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October has come in higher-than-projected. Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that inflationary pressures rose to 3.8% on an annualized basis. Economists expected the CPI data to come in higher at 3.6% from 3.5% in September.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.25% | -0.89% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.18% | -0.06% | -0.24% | -0.86% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.21% | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.84% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.23% | -0.41% | -1.05% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.23% | -0.18% | -0.81% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.41% | 0.18% | -0.63% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | 0.89% | 0.86% | 0.84% | 1.05% | 0.81% | 0.63% | 0.91% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.14% | -0.10% | -0.27% | -0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The scenario of price pressures accelerating is likely to undermine expectations of any interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the near term. Earlier this month, the RBA kept its OCR steady at 3.6%, citing upside inflation risks.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 26, 2025 01:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 2.25%
Consensus: 2.25%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
- The Australian Dollar moves little after the first “complete” monthly Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
- Australia’s CPI rose 3.8% YoY in October, beating the market forecast of 3.6% and accelerating from the previous 3.5% increase.
- The US Dollar faces challenges as softer data reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its gains for the fourth successive session. The AUD/USD pair holds ground after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the first “complete” monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which climbed by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. The reading surpassed the market consensus of a 3.6% rise and a 3.5% increase prior.
The AUD could gain ground as the first monthly CPI increased the cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook. The RBA is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% in December as inflation remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. RBA officials noted that the unemployment rate has risen slightly, but the job market is still healthy and is expected to remain so.
Minutes from the RBA’s November meeting indicated the central bank may keep rates unchanged for an extended period. ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show that as of November 25, the December 2025 contract traded at 96.41, implying a 6% probability of a rate cut to 3.35% from 3.60% at the upcoming RBA Board meeting.
US Dollar struggles as recent data increase Fed rate cut bets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering modest losses in the previous session and trading around 99.80 at the time of writing. The Greenback faced challenges amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, driven by recent softer US data.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in more than 84% odds that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 50% probability that markets priced a week ago.
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year in September, matching expectations and August’s reading and suggesting that inflationary pressures have stabilized. Core PPI eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, undershooting forecasts of 2.7%.
- US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, slowing from the 0.6% increase seen in August, indicating more cautious consumer spending. Separately, the Conference Board reported a sharp deterioration in household sentiment, with Consumer Confidence sliding 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business on Monday that his main concern is the weakening labour market, adding that inflation is “not a big problem” given the recent softness in employment. He also said the September payrolls figure will likely be revised lower and warned that concentrated hiring is “not a good sign,” indicating his support for a near-term rate cut.
- New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Moreover, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Nonfarm Payrolls data supports a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
- The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in November, versus 49.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 52.7 in November from the previous reading of 52.5, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.6 in November versus 52.1 prior.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting last week, indicating that board members signalled a more balanced policy stance, adding that it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected.
- RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted last week that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures.” Hunter noted that monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the central bank won’t react to a single month of figures. She added that the RBA is closely assessing labor-market conditions to gauge supply capacity and is examining how the effects of monetary policy may be changing over time.
Australian Dollar could target 0.6500 after decisively breaking above nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6480 on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis shows the pair holding within a rectangular consolidation zone, signaling a neutral bias. The pair continues to trade below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), highlighting subdued short-term momentum.
The AUD/USD pair finds immediate support at the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6420, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414, which was recorded on August 21.
On the upside, the pair hovers around the nine-day EMA of 0.6479. A successful break above this level would support the AUD/USD pair to test the psychological level of 0.6500. Further advances would lead the pair to reach the rectangle’s upper boundary near 0.6630.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.22% | -0.90% | 0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.14% | -0.04% | -0.20% | -0.89% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.01% | -0.16% | -0.85% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.35% | -1.03% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.19% | -0.17% | -0.85% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.35% | 0.17% | -0.69% | 0.23% | |
| NZD | 0.90% | 0.89% | 0.85% | 1.03% | 0.85% | 0.69% | 0.93% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.12% | -0.08% | -0.23% | -0.93% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 26, 2025 00:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 3.8%
Consensus: 3.6%
Previous: 3.5%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0796 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0826 and 7.0825 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
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