Forex News
German business morale deteriorated slightly in November, with the IFO Institute's Business Climate Index declining to 88.1 in November from 88.4 in October. This reading came in below the market expectation of 88.5.
Other details of the publication showed that the IFO Current Assessment Index edged higher to 85.6 from 85.3, while the Expectations Index fell to 90.6 from 91.6.
Market reaction to German IFO data
This report failed to trigger a meaningful reaction in the Euro. At the time of press, EUR/USD was up 0.15% on the day at 1.1530.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.13% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.45% | 0.24% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.25% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | -0.45% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.18% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | -0.24% | -0.03% | 0.20% | -0.06% | 0.02% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | -0.16% | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.05% | 0.18% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of German IFO sentiment data at 07:00 GMT.
The German IFO Survey Overview
Germany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for November on Monday at 09:00 GMT.
The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to tick higher to 88.5 this month, from a 88.4 reading in October.
The Current Assessment Index stood at 85.3 in October, while the Expectations Index came in at 91.6.
How could the German IFO Survey affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is likely to remain steady if the IFO Business Survey data comes out as expected. Any surprise downtick in the German business activity could put little pressure on the Euro (EUR), as it receives support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows.
The EUR/USD pair also holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges amid renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut in December weighs on sentiment. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 71% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 42% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Technically, the EUR/USD trades higher around 1.1520 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, strengthening the bearish bias. The pair may find its initial support at the psychological level of 1.1500, followed by the three-month low of 1.1468. On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1548, followed by the psychological level of 1.1600 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1605.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
- The US Dollar consolidates below 1.4100 against the Loonie, after rejection at the 1.4130 area.
- A mild risk appetite and higher hopes of Fed easing are weighing on the USD on Monday.
- Canadian Dollar rallies remain limited, as Oil prices extend their decline.
The US Dollar is trading flat, around the 1.4100 level against the Canadian Dollar, after failing to break above 1.4130 on Friday. The pair is looking for direction on a doleful trading session on Monday, weighed down by a mild appetite for risk.
The Greenback was hit on Friday by the dovish comments of New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President, John Williams, who renewed hopes of further monetary easing in the coming months. Williams said that the bank has room to cut interest rates further without putting the bank’s inflation targets at risk, which boosted market sentiment on Friday and sent the US Doillar lower accorss teh board.
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Williams' comments offset the impact of fairly positive US business activity figures and the improving Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey released later on the day.
The odds for a quarter-point rate cut after the Fed’s December 10 meeting have increased to 75%, following Williams’ comments, from around 40% one week ago, according to data released by the CME Group’s Fedwatch Tool. This is putting some pressure on the US Dollar on Monday, but the Greenback's downside attempts remain limited, as traders acknowledge the wide divergence within the Fed’s monetary policy committee and assume that December’s Decision will be a coin toss.
In Canada, declining Oil prices, the country’s main import, are keeping Canadian Dollar bulls in check. US and Ukrainian representatives keep working on a framework for a peace deal that might alleviate sanctions on Russian crude and boost supply at a time when a weak outlook for global demand is triggering serious concerns of an Oil glut.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- WTI price falls as US efforts to advance a Russia-Ukraine peace deal raise the prospect of increased crude supply.
- Rubio said Geneva talks were “very worthwhile,” the most productive in “a very long time.”
- US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have stranded nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude at sea.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around $57.70 per barrel during the European hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices decline as the United States (US) pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could boost crude flows into an already well-supplied market.
Senior US and Ukrainian officials said Sunday that progress is being made on a US-backed proposal to end the conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks in Geneva as “very worthwhile,” calling it the most productive day in “a very long time,” while also downplaying the Thursday deadline set by President Donald Trump for Ukraine’s response.
However, several European allies worry that the proposal tilts too far in Moscow’s favor. If a deal is reached, it could result in sanctions on Russian Oil being lifted, potentially adding more supply to a market already expected to face a substantial surplus next year.
Reuters quoted IG analyst Tony Sycamore as saying in a note that “The selloff was triggered mainly by President Trump’s forceful push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which markets see as a fast track to unlocking substantial Russian supply.”
According to the report, progress toward a deal outweighed the near-term disruption caused by US sanctions on state-owned Rosneft and private producer Lukoil, which took effect Friday and has left nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold drifts lower at the start of a new week as the risk-on mood undermines demand for safe-haven assets.
- Mixed signals from Fed officials drag the USD away from a multi-month top and support the commodity.
- Geopolitical risks further benefit the XAU/USD pair as traders keenly await this week's US macro data.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from the daily low touched during the early part of the European session and trades with a mild negative bias, just above the $4,060 level, down less than 0.15% for the day. Mixed signals from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep the door open for another interest rate cut in December and prompt some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking after the recent rise to its highest level since late May. This turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and fresh conflicts in the Middle East further seem to underpin the safe-haven Gold. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for this week's key US macro releases – the Q3 GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Moreover, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so warrants caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold draws support from Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks
- New York Federal Reserve President John Williams described the current policy as modestly restrictive and told reporters on Friday that he sees room for the central bank to lower rates in the near term. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 67% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in December.
- However, other Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan calling for leaving the policy rate on hold for the time being. This assists the US Dollar in preserving its recent gains to the highest level since late May and exerts some downward pressure on the Gold during the Asian session on Monday.
- Meanwhile, the renewed optimism that the US central bank will cut interest rates again in December boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets. This allows most Asian stocks to rise on Monday and recover some of the recent losses, which, in turn, is seen as another factor that undermines demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on a heat and power station in Russia’s Moscow region. Russia, on the other hand, said that it had captured three more villages in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has given Ukraine until November 27 to approve a 28-point peace plan to end the nearly four-year war.
- Ukraine is seeking changes to the proposal that accepts some of Russia's hardline demands and makes painful concessions in order to end the invasion. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might continue to offer some support to the precious metal, warranting some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move.
- Traders now look forward to a rather busy US economic docket this week, featuring the delayed release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. This will be followed by the preliminary Q3 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday.
- The latter would offer more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Gold needs to weaken below the $4,030 confluence support to back the case for deeper losses
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair, so far, has managed to defend an upward-sloping trend-line extending from late October. The said support is currently pegged near the $4,030 region and now coincides with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, might turn the Gold price vulnerable to weaken further below the $4,000 psychological mark and test last week's swing low, around the $3,968-3,967 area. The downward trajectory could extend further the $3,931 support en route to the $3,900 mark and late October swing low, around the $3,886 region.
On the flip side, the $4,080 supply zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $4,100 mark. A sustained move and acceptance above the latter could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $4,152-4,155 region. The momentum could extend further and allow the XAU/USD pair to climb further towards reclaiming the $4,200 round figure.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 11,651.86 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 11,670.99 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 135,904.20 per tola from INR 136,127.30 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
1 Gram | 11,651.86 |
10 Grams | 116,518.50 |
Tola | 135,904.20 |
Troy Ounce | 362,414.00 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- The Euro shows mild gains against the US Dollar but remains close to the 1.1500 support area.
- Dovish comments by Fed Williams weighed on the US Dollar on Friday.
- German IFO Business Climate and ECB's Lagarde will drive the Euro on Monday.
EUR/USD shows marginal gains at Monday's European session opening, trading at 1.1520 area at the time of writing, after bouncing from two-week lows at 1.1490 on Friday. The pair edged higher in dozy Asian markets, with Japan closed for bank holidays, and with US markets bracing for a shortened Thanksgiving week.
The US Dollar (USD) was hit on Friday's US session from dovish comments by the New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President, John Williams, who raised hopes of further interest rate cuts in the coming months, and sent the US Dollar Index (DXY) down from multi-week highs.
Regarding macroeconomic data, the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed fairly positive readings for November, in contrast with the Eurozone PMIs, which revealed that manufacturing activity contracted against expectations.
In the Eurozone economic calendar on Monday, the German IFO and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will be the main focus, while in the US, the only event worth mentioning is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.19% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.23% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.19% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.14% | -0.03% | -0.15% | 0.09% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.23% | -0.14% | -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.04% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.12% | 0.13% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.12% | 0.25% | 0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.06% | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.21% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Downbeat Eurozone data weighs on the Euro
- The Euro (EUR) remains on the back foot following weak business activity data for November. The Eurozone preliminary HCOB PMIs showed on Friday that the manufacturing sector contracted again, to 49.7 from the previous month's 50 level, compared to expectations of an improvement to 50.2. The Services PMI ticked up to 53.1 from 53.0 in the previous month, but the Compòsite Index eased to 52.4 from 52.5 in October.
- Likewise, German Manufacturing activity contracted further in November, with the preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI declining to 48.4 from October's 49.6, while services activity eased to 52.7 from 54.6, well below market expectations of a 53.9 reading, highlighting the soft momentum of the region's leading economy.
- In the US, the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI slowed down to 51.9 in November from 52.5 in October, below the 52.0 expected, but Services PMI beat expectations with a 55.0 reading against the market consensus of a steady 54.8 reading. The composite Index rose to 54.8 from 54.6.
- Furthermore, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 51 in November, from 50.3 in October, exceeding the market consensus of a 50.5 reading. The index measuring the economic expectations also rose, to 51 from 49 in the previous month.
- The impact of the positive macroeconomic figures was offset by Fed William's comments hinting at the possibility of further monetary easing "in the near term" as, in his opinion, the bank has margin to cut interest rates further without risking its inflation goal.
- In the European session on Monday, the main attraction will be the German IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to show a marginal improvement to 88.5 from the previous month's 88.4.
- Later on the day, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak about Artificial Intelligence and Education at a forum in Bratislava, Slovakia.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains bearish, with 1.1550 limiting gains
The EUR/USD shows a frail recovery attempt with its broader bearish trend fully in play. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains depressed below 40, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has crossed the signal line below the zero level, which suggests that bullish attempts will be short-lived.
Daily highs are at 1.1530, but the immediate resistance is at the 1.1550 area, which held bulls on Thursday and Friday. The pair should break that level to confirm a bullish reaction and aim for the November 18 and 19 highs near 1.1600 and to the top of a descending channel from the mid-October highs, which is now around 1.1625.
On the downside, the 1.1500 psychological level remains at a dangerously short distance. Further down, the next targets would be the November 5 lows, near 1.1470, and the mentioned channel support, around 1.1425
Economic Indicator
IFO – Business Climate
This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Mon Nov 24, 2025 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 88.5
Previous: 88.4
Source: IFO Institute
Economic Indicator
IFO – Expectations
The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report
Next release: Mon Nov 24, 2025 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 91.6
Source: IFO Institute
- NZD/USD struggles as traders expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in November.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- Fed’s Williams said that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near term.”
NZD/USD loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5610 during the European hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar struggles on dovish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy outlook. Traders expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November meeting on Wednesday.
Markets are also assigning a small probability to another surprise 50 bps move, similar to the October decision, given the backdrop of elevated unemployment and a sluggish economy. However, traders will be focused on the central bank’s guidance following the decision.
However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 71% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 42% probability that markets priced a week ago.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Moreover, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Nonfarm Payrolls data supports a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25 bps cut.” However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she has not yet made up her mind on a potential move.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.05% | -0.10% | 0.01% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.34% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | -0.11% | 0.25% | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | -0.34% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.06% | 0.15% | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.09% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.07% | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
