Forex News
- The Dow Jones eased somwhat on Friday, testing into 44,300.
- Despite a quiet end to the week, equities are poised for strong bullish closes.
- US PMI data came in more mixed than expected, to little effect.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned into a soft backpedal on Friday, testing down around 200 points on a slow trading day. The Dow Jones is capping off an otherwise firmly bullish week, with the index gaining around 2.3% from Monday’s opening bids. The DJIA has gained ground for the second week in a row, firmly hinting that the bull market is back after a six-week backslide.
President Donald Trump stoked the flames of pro-equity sentiment this week by not instituting the day-one tariffs he promised on the campaign trail. He also announced this week that he would “demand” lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and plans to request a drop in oil prices from Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results for January were even more mixed than analysts anticipated. According to an ambiguous number of survey respondents, businesses saw a better-than-expected improvement in forward-looking expectations for growth in the manufacturing sector. Still, services-based businesses are more despondent about future business conditions than most anticipated.
January’s Manufacturing sector PMI rose to 50.1 from the previous month’s 49.4, surpassing the forecast of 49.6. The Services PMI for the same period shrank to 52.8 from 56.8, well below the expected 56.5, but still remains in positive territory overall, meaning purchasing managers who bothered to respond to the survey don’t expect much growth in the coming month, but don’t expect an outright contraction in business conditions either.
Dow Jones news
Despite some steeper losses in key overweighted stocks dragging the Dow slightly lower on Friday, the index itself is roughly on balance, with about half of the board’s listed equities still finding higher ground to wrap up the trading week. Walt Disney Co (DIS) rallied 1.8% to $113 per share, mainly on the back of expectations that past performance is indicative of future results after the entertainment monolith returned 24% over 2024 to people holding its shares. On the low side, Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.5%, declining below $144 per share as investors fear the company may be doomed now that its run of seeing 100%-plus growth in annualized revenues may be over.
Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again knocking on record highs just above 45,000 set late last November. The DJIA initially declined 7.4% top-to-bottom in a six week backslide after posting the fresh record, but the wheels are back on the road as buyers continue to tilt into risk appetite.
The Dow Jones has climbed 6.8% from January’s swing low into 41,730, testing the 44,500 region after closing in the green for all but one of the last nine consecutive trading sessions. The immediate barrier to fresh record highs will be 45,000 major handle itself, while a pullback to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 43,275 could hamper bullish momentum.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- NZD/USD advances on Friday, holding above the key 0.5700 level.
- The pair maintains its uptrend, supported by bullish technical indicators.
- Focus remains on whether momentum can push the pair toward the next resistance level at 0.5750.
The NZD/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Friday, rising by 0.44% to settle at 0.5705 and mantains its footing above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This marks a steady continuation of the bullish momentum observed since mid-January, which was initiated by a breakout above the 0.5600 level. While minor pullbacks earlier in the week reflected potential profit-taking, the pair has maintained its position above 0.5700, signaling strong buying interest. On the negative side, the pair failed to sustain its intraday push near 0.5800.
Technical indicators align with the pair’s positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed sharply to 63, firmly in positive territory, suggesting healthy upward momentum and room for further gains. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows flat green bars, indicating sustained buying pressure despite a temporary pause in acceleration.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 0.5750, a level that could act as a gateway for the pair to aim higher. On the downside, support is found at 0.5670, followed by a more robust floor around 0.5640. As long as the pair stays above these support levels, the bullish trajectory remains intact, with potential for further appreciation in the near term.
NZD/USD daily chart
- Gold nears all-time high, rises amid volatile US policy statements.
- Trump's WEF comments soften on Chinese tariffs and advocate lower rates, affecting the dollar.
- The US Dollar Index drops 0.62% to 107.44, weakening the Greenback and enhancing gold's hedge appeal.
Gold price extended its weekly gains, poised to challenge the all-time high of $2,790 rather sooner than later. Comments by United States (US) President Donald Trump could be the catalyst that pushes the yellow metal higher, though he surprised traders as he might refrain from imposing duties on Chinese products. The XAU/USD trades at $2,772, up 0.60%.
The market mood shifted slightly negatively even though Trump has eased the trade policy rhetoric against allies and adversaries. US economic data on Friday hinted that manufacturing activity improved in December, according to S&P Global, while Consumer Sentiment deteriorated, reported the University of Michigan (UoM) final survey for January.
However, Trump’s harsh rhetoric is not limited to the trade deficit. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) he added that he would demand lower interest rates.
After his remarks, the Greenback tumbled and remains on the defensive, as seen by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American currency's value against a basket of six currencies. It edges down 0.62% to 107.44.
The buck is set to end the week with losses of 1.77% in the first week of US President Donald Trump in office.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the release of Durable Goods Orders, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price climbs above $2,770 on solid US data
- Gold price rose ignoring the advance of real yields. Measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), yield sits at 2.23%, up by one and a half basis points (bps).
- The US 10-year Treasury bond yield slides two bps during the day at 4.625%.
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December improved from 49.4 to 50.1, above estimates of 49.6. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dipped from 56.8 to 52.8, missing forecasts of 56.5
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final forJanuary expanded by 71.1, below estimates of 73.2 and the preliminary reading of 74.0.
- Existing Home Sales in December rose by 2.2% MoM, from 4.15 million to 4.24 million.
- Market participants are pricing in near-even odds that the Fed will cut rates twice by the end of 2025 with the first reduction occurring in June.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold surges above $2,770 as bulls target ATH
Gold price rally is set to extend but traders must clear the record high of $2,790. Despite this, the formation of a bullish candle with a small upper shadow indicates traders are not accepting higher prices. This is further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has turned overbought.
XAU/USD must surpass the all-time high (ATH) at $2,790 for a bullish continuation. Once cleared, the next resistance would be $2,800, followed by key psychological levels exposed at $2,850 and $2,900.
Conversely, if bears drag Bullion prices below the $2,750 figure, the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) emerge as support levels, each at $2,656 and $2,653. If surpassed, up next lies the 200-day SMA at $2,520.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Pair jumps 0.42% to 0.6315 on Friday, buoyed by broad risk appetite.
- Trump expresses willingness to avoid tariffs on China, offers trade deal hints.
- Fed rate cut bets and upbeat sentiment pressure the US Dollar.
- Traders assess the latest US PMI data amid a potential shift in risk dynamics.
AUD/USD attracted buyers on Friday after President Trump suggested a trade agreement with China remains within reach, reinforcing a risk-on mood. The pair advances to 0.6315, heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks. Meanwhile, renewed speculation regarding additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2025 continues to undermine the US Dollar, providing an added lift to the Aussie.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie continues its recovery as USD remains soft
- The Greenback falls to a one-month trough as markets price in the prospect of further Fed easing by year-end. In addition, President Trump’s statements about immediate interest rate cuts contribute to the latest downside in the USD.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) possible rate cut in February and subdued economic growth might limit the Aussie’s upside.
- On the US front, the S&P Global Composite PMI decelerates to 52.4 from 55.4, with Manufacturing climbing to 50.1 and Services dipping to 52.8. Analysts note rising optimism in the manufacturing sector, expecting supportive policies under the Trump administration.
- The US President signals reluctance to levy tariffs on China, citing that a trade pact could be finalized. He also reiterates grievances about trade deficits with various nations, including Canada, while calling on OPEC to lower crude oil prices.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Short-term signals turn more upbeat, hinting at potential breakout
The AUD/USD has advanced to 0.6315 on Friday, extending its recent winning streak and edging closer to 0.6330. In the short term, technicals lean constructive: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints rising green bars, suggesting a budding shift toward bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58 and is rising sharply, indicating robust upside pressure.
This combination implies the pair may be on the verge of a more meaningful rebound. A decisive break above 0.6330 would confirm a broader turnaround.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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