Forex News
- AUD/USD clears June high, confirming renewed bullish momentum.
- RSI supports upside as buyers target 0.7200 and 0.7227.
- Break below 0.7100 exposes 100-day SMA and 50-day support.
The Aussie Dollar finished the week with gains of over 0.82% on Friday and up more than 1.20% for the week as the US Dollar tumbled following the US Treasury Department's announcement of a bond buyback for the long end of the curve. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7170, after rebounding near 0.7067.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
AUD/USD price action indicates that the uptrend resumed after the pair reclaimed the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7969. In addition, a breakout above the June 4 daily high of 0.7149 opened the door for further gains.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum. Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside, meaning that bulls are piling in search of higher prices.
The AUD/USD's first supply zone is the May 29 high of 0.7200. If breached, this clears the path to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.7227. On further strength, the next area of interest would be 0.7300.
Conversely, if bears move in and drag prices below 0.7100, a move towards the 100-day SMA at 0.7069 is on the cards. On further weakness, the next support is the 50-day SMA at 0.6999.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/CHF ends week lower after Treasury-led yield drop.
- RSI momentum favors sellers despite consolidation between key SMAs.
- Break below 0.7933 exposes 0.7900 as next support.
The USD/CHF advanced on Friday, registering a modest 0.07% gain, trading at 0.8010. During the week, the pair finished with losses of over 1.49%, triggered by a drop in US yields on Wednesday, as the US Treasury tries to cap elevated yields on the 30-year bond.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
USD/CHF price action shows some “sort” of consolidation, capped by the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.8086 and 0.7976. Momentum shifted downwards as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Even though price action could’ve opened the door for a “mean reversion” trade after the sudden drop, the RSI suggests that bears are in charge and caution is warranted.
For a bearish continuation, the first support level for USD/CHF is 0.8000. Below the first support is the 100-day SMA, followed by the August 20 low of 0.7949, and then the 200-day SMA at 0.7933. A breach of the latter will expose 0.7900.
If USDCHF makes a U-turn and edges higher, the first resistance is the 50-day SMA at 0.8086. Above is 0.8100, followed by the August 13 high of 0.8147, before testing 0.8200.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.97% | -0.88% | -0.21% | -0.79% | -1.15% | -1.41% | -1.34% | |
| EUR | 0.97% | 0.22% | 0.74% | 0.18% | -0.24% | -0.50% | -0.38% | |
| GBP | 0.88% | -0.22% | 0.59% | -0.05% | -0.45% | -0.72% | -0.65% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.74% | -0.59% | -0.61% | -0.92% | -1.21% | -1.13% | |
| CAD | 0.79% | -0.18% | 0.05% | 0.61% | -0.34% | -0.70% | -0.60% | |
| AUD | 1.15% | 0.24% | 0.45% | 0.92% | 0.34% | -0.27% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | 1.41% | 0.50% | 0.72% | 1.21% | 0.70% | 0.27% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.65% | 1.13% | 0.60% | 0.21% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- Two-year yield climbs as markets reassess Fed rate risks.
- Thirty-year yield stays elevated despite expanded Treasury buyback.
- US PCE, Bessent sanctions and Jackson Hole drive the next catalysts.
US Treasury yields continue their recovery following the announcement of a bond buyback by the US Department of the Treasury, while data reveal that business activity remains solid despite a slowdown in manufacturing.
Yields rise as strong services activity offsets Treasury buyback support
US Treasury yields across the whole curve rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield – the most sensitive to changes to the Fed funds rate – rising five basis points (bps) to 4.24%, while the 10-year benchmark note, rose almos three bps to 4.474%.
The US 30-year bond yield continued to grab headlines on major financial news websites, ending the week at 5.276%, up 2.5 bps, despite the US Treasury announcing it would increase purchases at the long end of the curve from $2 to $4 billion.
Data-wise, the US S&P Global Services PMI improved in August, beating estimates, while the manufacturing index slowed despite moderate growth. Factory prices are affected by disruptions from the US-Iran war, raising energy costs.
In the US, the focus shifts to Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing Iranian sanctions on Monday, the US PCE report, BLS prelim benchmark revisions, and Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is unchanged, down 0.02% at 98.84.
US 10-year Treasury yield chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- USD/MXN slides to 16.92 as Dollar ends week lower.
- Weak Retail Sales fail to derail Peso’s carry-driven advance.
- Mexico inflation, GDP and US PCE drive next catalysts.
The Mexican currency appreciates to levels last seen in May 2024 as the USD/MXN falls to a two-year low as the US Dollar tumbles even though business activity in the services sector improved. The exotic pair trades at 16.92, down 0.22% for the week and 0.50% for the week.
USD/MXN weakens on soft US Dollar and carry support
On Friday, sentiment improved as a tailwind for the emerging market currency, which is also supported by the carry trade, due to a 275-basis-point interest rate differential in favour of the Mexican Peso against the Greenback. The latter, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck versus six developed currencies, ended flat at 98.84 for the day but down over 0.80% for the week.
Mexican Retail Sales fell short of estimates for a 0.1% expansion, shrank -0.2% MoM in June, improved compared to May’s -0.6% contraction. In the twelve months to June, sales rose from 1.6% to 2.7%, but missed forecasts of a 3.1% jump.
On Thursday, the minutes of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed that it remains cautious about rates, despite recognising that inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Banxico’s board revealed that the current policy stance is appropriate and mentioned that the “escalation of the Middle East conflict could negatively affect global economic activity.”
In the US, business activity in the services sector improved according to S&P Global, crushing estimates in August. However, manufacturing activity slowed, even as it expanded at a moderate pace. The report showed that factory prices are feeling the strain of the US-Iran war, disrupting commodity flows and pushing energy prices higher.
Geopolitics are grabbing the market’s attention. The Iranian President said that it was time to end the war, but the Iranian Navy commander separately warned that a “historic lesson” was coming for the enemy.
For the next week, the Mexican economic docket will feature inflation data for the first half of August, GDP for the second quarter and the Current Account. In the US, traders turn to Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing Iranian sanctions on Monday, the US PCE report, BLS prelim benchmark revisions, and Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 16.9206, extending its decline below the recent range and keeping a bearish near-term bias. Spot holds beneath the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) pack, with the latest triple SMA reading around 17.3393 acting as overhead resistance, while a nearer descending resistance trend line from 18.1651 comes in around 17.0838 and reinforces the cap on rebounds. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 27.3 is slipping into oversold territory, which hints at stretched downside conditions but does not yet signal a clear recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the downward resistance trend line from 18.1651 near 17.0838, ahead of the triple SMA barrier around 17.3393, while a broader descending resistance line drawn from 21.0808 sits much higher near 18.1200 and marks a more distant hurdle. With no nearby support levels defined by moving averages or trend lines below the current price, any bounce from the 16.90 region would likely be corrective unless the pair can reclaim the 17.0838 area and then challenge the SMA cluster around 17.3393.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to raise its base rate by 25bps to 3.00% at the August meeting, alongside upgraded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. They highlight stronger-than-expected first-half growth, persistent core inflation and rising housing prices, but also note a hawkish hold is possible as financial conditions tighten and South Korean Won (KRW) appreciates.
Rate hike with inflation concerns
"We expect the Bank of Korea to raise the base rate by a further 25bps to 3.00% at this meeting, alongside an upgrade to its annual macroeconomic forecasts."
"There is significant room for the BoK to revise up its 2026 GDP growth forecast to around 3.5%, from the current 2.6%, given the stronger-than-expected 1H growth of 3.8% yoy."
"There is also room to revise up its 2027 CPI inflation forecast to close to 3.0%, from the current 2.3%. Although headline CPI moderated slightly to 2.8% yoy in July, from 3.2% in June, core CPI continued to edge up to 2.6% from 2.5%, while housing prices also increased further, to 2.7% from 2.6%."
"These developments should keep the BOK cautious about the risk of inflation remaining above its 2% target for an extended period."
"A hawkish hold at this meeting cannot be ruled out, however. This view mainly reflects the recent tightening in financial market conditions, driven by strong KRW appreciation and heightened KOSPI volatility. The BOK could therefore keep rates unchanged at this meeting while signalling the possibility of a further hike at the October meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes Malaysia’s July exports rose 38.0% year-on-year, marking a fourth month of double‑digit growth led by electronics and machinery. The bank highlights resilient external demand, strong shipments to the US and China, and an AI‑driven electronics cycle. USD/MYR has fallen for four sessions, with the Malaysian Ringgit slightly outperforming other Asian currencies versus the Dollar.
Strong external demand underpins Ringgit
"July exports rose 38.0% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 35.0%) vs 45.5% in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of double-digit growth. The report suggests external demand remains resilient despite supply-chain disruption risks from renewed Middle East tensions. Growth was broad-based, led by electronics and machinery shipments, with AI-related infrastructure demand from hyperscalers remaining a key driver."
"Imports rose more than expected by 36.4% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 31.8%) vs 43.1% in June. This was driven by robust capital goods imports (+24.0%), suggesting healthy investment momentum. The trade surplus widened more than expected to MYR22.5bn (Bloomberg consensus: MYR22.9bn) vs MYR15.8bn previously."
"In FX, USD/MYR fell 0.3% to 4.05 yesterday. The pair has declined for the fourth consecutive session, and it is approaching its lowest level since early June due to a weaker USD. Year-to-date, MYR is up 0.4% vs the USD, outperforming the average for Asian ex-Japan currencies of -1.5%."
"Meanwhile, the AI-driven electronics cycle should continue to support semiconductor shipments as hyperscalers fulfil their capex commitments. Exports to the US surged 79.8% in July, while shipments to China rose 30.2%, highlighting continued support from key trading partners."
"Looking ahead, export growth could face headwinds from high base effects, geopolitical uncertainties, and weather-related disruptions from El Niño. However, downside risks may be partly offset by resilient external demand. While Malaysia faces a 10% US tariff following the Section 301 forced labour investigation, around two-thirds of its exports to the US remain exempt."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week near even with Thursday, holding near 98.80. Like Thursday, DXY traded down to the 98.50s before recovering later in the session.
The US Dollar Index trades near its lowest since May. The softness owes less to the data than to the plumbing: the US Treasury's move to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated debt pulled yields lower and took the shine off the Greenback, even as Friday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys showed US activity still accelerating.
Gold surged on Friday to a three-month peak above $4,600, the Australian Dollar climbed to a multi-month high, and Crude Oil held near a four-week high as Middle East tensions simmered.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.83% | -0.62% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.83% | -0.60% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.09% | -0.06% | -0.69% | -0.49% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.12% | -0.79% | -0.59% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.12% | -0.67% | -0.45% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.69% | 0.79% | 0.67% | 0.21% | 0.89% | |
| NZD | 0.62% | 0.60% | 0.49% | 0.59% | 0.45% | -0.21% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.22% | -0.89% | -0.69% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The coming week is back-loaded. There is little for the Dollar early on, but Wednesday brings the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, and Friday delivers a double-header: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) preliminary annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls. T
he symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City under the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," takes center stage. With the Dollar already near its lows, any dovish lean from Warsh, or a heavy downward revision to the jobs numbers, could deepen the slide.
Elsewhere, the Eurozone calendar picks up with Germany's IFO survey and the final second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading on Tuesday, the accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting on Thursday, and flash August Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation on Friday, framed by speeches from Cipollone and Schnabel. Japan closes the week with Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that feeds the Bank of Japan (BoJ) debate, while Australia is busy with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Monday, monthly inflation on Tuesday and second-quarter capital expenditure on Wednesday. Canadian GDP rounds out Friday, and the unresolved Iran standoff hangs over the lot.
EUR/USD ends the week around 1.1680, capped below 1.1700 after another failed run at the figure. The domestic calendar offers little to move it before Friday's flash inflation print, so the pair stays largely a Dollar story keyed to Jackson Hole. A firmer HICP reading would trim the modest easing still priced for the ECB and lend the euro a floor into month-end.
GBP/USD trades in the mid-1.3600s as it closes the week, off midweek highs. With almost nothing on the UK calendar, Cable has no domestic anchor and rides the Dollar and Friday's Jackson Hole address; the risk is a quiet drift until Warsh speaks, then a sharp repricing in either direction.
USD/JPY ends the week just above 159.00, a soft Dollar offset by a yen still weighed down by wide rate differentials. Friday's Tokyo inflation figures are the domestic focus, feeding a BoJ debate where swaps price roughly an 80% chance of a hike at the September 18 meeting. A firm print would harden those bets and press the pair toward its 200-day average.
AUD/USD trades near 0.7170, its best in months and the standout of the majors. The RBA minutes open the week, but Tuesday's monthly CPI is the key test, with headline inflation expected to ease toward 3.2% from 3.8%. A cooler number would pare the little RBA tightening still priced in and could finally test the Aussie's run, while Wednesday's capital-expenditure data offers a read on business investment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil ends the week in the high-$80s, near a four-week high, with no oil-specific data due. The crude story stays geopolitical: Washington's pivot toward economic sanctions on Iran rather than further strikes has eased the immediate threat of a supply shock, but reports that talks have stalled keep a floor under prices. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant note, saying those who "sit across the border and invite the enemy to invade" are "not Iranians."
Gold ends the week above $4,600, at a three-month peak after a run built on the sliding Dollar, softer real yields and a Middle East safe-haven bid. With no top-tier catalyst of its own, the metal takes its cue from Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Jackson Hole keynote: a dovish read from Warsh would extend the move, while any hint of caution on rates could invite the first real pullback in weeks.
DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% in August, extending the pause after June’s unanimous decision. They cite uneven economic growth, easing but still elevated headline inflation within the 1–3% target range, and scope for accommodative policy to support recovery alongside fiscal measures.
Accommodative stance to support recovery
"We expect the BoT to maintain its policy rate at 1.00% at its August meeting, extending the pause following June’s unanimous decision."
"Economic growth remains uneven, with both private consumption and foreign tourism weak but stabilising, while goods exports and private investment remain strong."
"Headline inflation, although elevated, has eased for three consecutive months, falling to 1.9% yoy in July from rates near the upper end of the BoT’s 1-3% target range, largely due to lower energy prices."
"Given the uneven pace of economic growth and headline inflation remaining within the central bank’s target range, the BoT retains scope to keep monetary policy unchanged and accommodative in order to support the economic recovery and complement fiscal policy amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY is edging lower on Friday and set for a weekly loss, holding just above key medium-term support.
- Firm Japanese inflation and stronger August business surveys have pushed Bank of Japan September-hike odds to around 80%, supporting the Yen.
- Next week's Jackson Hole debut from Warshand the Bank of Japan decision are the range-breakers.
The US Dollar (USD) is muted against the Japanese Yen (JPY). USD/JPY traded in the low 159.00s at the time of writing on Friday.
In Japan, July inflation accelerated with headline consumer prices rising 1.9% from a year earlier and core measures firming, while August business surveys came in stronger than expected. Together they have hardened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates at its September meeting, with swaps now pricing roughly an 80% chance of a move. That conviction is doing the heavy lifting for the Yen.
A resilient United States (US) economy is pulling the other way. The flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys released on Friday showed private sector activity accelerating. The Composite index jumped to 56 from 54.5 on a strong Services reading, though Manufacturing slipped and missed forecasts. Firm data of that kind supports the higher-for-longer view for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and puts a floor under the Dollar, even as the Greenback heads for a weekly loss.
The US Treasury said it would at least double its buybacks of longer-dated debt to ease strains in the bond market and cap yields, and Washington's pivot toward economic sanctions on Iran, rather than further military strikes, has improved risk appetite. That last point cuts against the Yen since a brighter risk mood usually weighs on the safe-haven currency, but BoJ-hike conviction and softer US yields have been enough to offset it.
The range is unlikely to give until the calendar forces it. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his Jackson Hole debut next Friday, and the Bank of Japan decides on September 18. Until then, a soft Dollar and a firm case for BoJ tightening leave risk tilted gently to the downside, with the 200-day average as the key level.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.02, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.81 and the 20-period SMA at 158.91. The clustering of these SMAs just below price suggests a supportive backdrop, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 points to neutral momentum, hinting at consolidation rather than aggressive trend extension in the immediate term.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the horizontal barrier at 159.04, followed closely by the next cap at 159.13, forming a tight ceiling that bulls need to clear to unlock further gains. On the downside, immediate support is found near the current trading area, with the 20-period SMA at 158.91 and the horizontal level at 158.87 forming a first demand zone, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 158.81 and a deeper floor at 158.63, which should limit pullbacks while the broader constructive tone persists.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong stress that the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) remains relatively well supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and robust domestic fundamentals. July exports surged and the trade surplus widened, underpinned by strong electronics and firmer palm Oil prices, though he cautions that elevated Oil and long-end US Treasury yields may temper the immediate FX impact.
Exports and trade surplus underpin MYR
"MYR remained relatively well supported, helped by the softer USD backdrop and still-favourable domestic fundamentals."
"Trade data released yesterday saw July exports rose 38.0% YoY, stronger than expected, while the trade surplus widened to MYR22.5bn, adding to the picture of resilient growth following the strong 2Q26 GDP print."
"The continued strength in electronics exports and firmer palm oil prices should also remain supportive for Malaysia’s external position."
"That said, the immediate FX impulse from the strong data may be more modest, particularly with oil and long-end US Treasury yields still elevated."
"We continue to see MYR relatively well placed within the region, especially if the broader USD pullback extends."
"USD/MYR last closed at 4.0450 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI fell into oversold conditions. Pace of decline may moderate with risk of rebound not ruled out in the interim. But bias to lean against rebound."
"Resistance at 4.0610 (38.2% fibo retracement of May low to June high), 4.08 levels. Support at 4.0320 (100, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo), 4 levels (61.8% fibo)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
