Forex News
- The Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting are due on Wednesday.
- Investors are expected to closely follow details of the latest hawkish hold.
- Markets see one or no interest rate cut this year.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish its Minutes from the March 18 meeting on Wednesday. The release should be less about the decision itself and more about the officials’ “no rush to cut” narrative.
Let’s recall that the Fed matched consensus last month, leaving its Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although both the statement and the subsequent Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference showed a subtly hawkish tilt.
Indeed, economic growth looks healthy; the labour market appears somewhat cooling, albeit slower than many policymakers would prefer; and inflation continues to run hot… hotter, actually. And prospects for inflation are far from rosy. Indeed, allow us to forget about tariffs for a moment. The ongoing surge in crude oil prices in response to the Middle East war and its impact on refined products should catapult the energy component of inflation even further, eventually reinforcing the views of those who advocate a “tighter-for-longer” policy.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a higher inflation path into 2026 and a slightly higher longer-run rate, all advocating for a policy stance that may need to stay restrictive for longer than previously assumed.
That said, the Minutes should shed some light on how broad that view holds inside the Committee. If we look at the fresh dot plot, they still reveal a meaningful split, with some officials saying there won't be any rate reductions this year and one rate setter even hinting at a potential rate hike in 2027. On this, market participants will be closely watching whether it is a real change in the centre of gravity or simply a few more hawkish opinions.
At his usual press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed isn't ready to disregard current price pressures without further confirmation of a return to some disinflationary pressure, particularly when it comes to goods costs. Powell also stressed that further tightening is not the basic scenario, implying that policy is in a two-sided but clearly unequal stance, with the bar for staying on hold much higher than the bar for lowering.
What to watch in the Minutes
There will probably be three main areas of attention.
First, how worried policymakers are about inflation being high, particularly if they regard shocks connected to energy and tariffs as transient or more permanent.
Second, how confident people are that the process of disinflation will work. Any phrase that calls into question the disinflation of products or the inflation of services that remain around would support the idea that rates would stay higher for longer.
Third, the balance of risks within the Committee. If the Minutes demonstrate that members are much more anxious about inflation than growth, it would back up what Powell said about the imbalance.
When will the FOMC Minutes be released, and how could they affect the US Dollar?
The FOMC will release the Minutes of the March 17-18 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.
FX takeaway
The Minutes probably won't alter the game for the US Dollar (USD) unless their tone emerges as really surprising. A generally hawkish assessment that confirms patience and a limited desire for cuts should keep US Treasury yields stable and the Greenback propped up.
In contrast, the US Dollar would be in danger if there were any signs that more members were worried about the threats to growth or the job environment. If that doesn't happen, the basic assumption is still that the Fed will continue in ’wait-and-see’ mode, and policy will stay tight for longer than the markets would want.
All in all
The Minutes should reinforce the idea that the Fed is not just pausing; it is deliberately holding its ground. Unless there is a clear shift towards growth concerns, the message remains unchanged, rates stay higher for longer, and the bar for cuts remains firmly elevated.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Last release: Wed Mar 18, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3.75%
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained over 0.7% versus the US Dollar (USD) but still lags other G10 currencies as risk sentiment improves on the ceasefire. They stress the positive impact of lower Oil prices on Japan’s terms of trade and stronger labor cash earnings, and for USD/JPY they target a retracement toward the 50-day moving average above 157 and the mid-155s gap.
Lower Oil and data back Yen strength
"The JPY is up over 0.7% vs. the USD but a relative underperformer against most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness."
"The focus is on sentiment, and relief over the short-term reprieve in the US/Iran conflict."
"These developments carry material implications for Japan’s terms of trade, given the near-$20/bbl decline in crude prices observed on the day."
"Fundamentally, Japan’s labor cash earnings data came in stronger than expected, delivering added support for a continued progression toward BoJ tightening."
"For USD/JPY, we await a more meaningful retracement of the late Jan/March rally and target the 50 day MA just above 157 as well as the January ‘intervention’ gap in the mid-155s."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow futures jumped more than 2.6% after President Trump suspended planned strikes on Iran for two weeks in exchange for a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- WTI Crude Oil plunges more than 17% to around $93, its sharpest single-session drop in six years, as the threat of a full blockade recedes.
- Semiconductor stocks lead the pre-market rally as supply chain fears ease, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumping close to 5%.
- The ceasefire remains fragile as Israel launches its largest coordinated strike on Lebanon, and Iran warns it may withdraw from the truce.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures surged around 1,200 points on Wednesday, up close to 2.6%, after a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough averted what had been shaping up as a catastrophic escalation of the US-Iran war. S&P 500 futures climbed around 2.4%, while Nasdaq Composite futures led the charge with gains near 2.8%. The rally followed President Donald Trump's decision late Tuesday to suspend his threat to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, for a period of two weeks. Futures got an additional boost Wednesday morning after Trump posted that the US would work with Iran to remove nuclear material from the country and that the two nations were discussing tariff and sanctions relief.
Pakistan brokers eleventh-hour deal
The ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan, whose Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had asked Trump to postpone the deadline and urged Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Trump described the outcome as a "double-sided ceasefire" and said Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal he called a "workable basis for negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks via coordination with Iran's armed forces. Delegations from both sides are expected in Islamabad on Friday for the first direct talks since the war began in late February.
Oil crashes as Hormuz fears ease
The most immediate market impact was in the crude Oil market, where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures plunged more than 17% to around $93 per barrel, its sharpest drop since 2020. The collapse came after weeks of elevated prices driven by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's Oil supply transits during peacetime. The reopening, even on a conditional and temporary basis, was enough to trigger a massive unwind of the war premium that had pushed WTI above $115 earlier this week. Brent Crude for June delivery fell more than 16% to around $92.
Ship-tracking service MarineTraffic confirmed that the first vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. However, industry experts said overall traffic has not picked up meaningfully from the trickle experienced during the war, and shipping giant Maersk said it was making "no changes" to its services pending further risk assessments.
The Oil crash rippled directly into equity sentiment. Falling energy costs ease the stagflation fears that had gripped markets for much of March and early April, reviving expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could still cut interest rates later this year. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) collapsed around 15% to near 22, down from above 25 in the prior session, reflecting a sharp reduction in hedging demand.
Ceasefire winners and losers
The pre-market rally was led by those corners of the market that had been hit hardest since the war began. Semiconductor stocks vulnerable to supply chain disruptions surged in early trading, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumping close to 5%. Broadcom (AVGO) gained about 4% and Micron (MU) rose 7%. International markets reliant on energy imports rallied sharply, with South Korean equities surging 8% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF climbing around 5%.
On the other side of the trade, energy stocks that had been war-time winners gave back gains in pre-market action. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) each fell more than 5% as traders unwound the Oil premium that had driven the energy sector up around 34% in 2026.
Fragile truce already under strain
Despite the euphoria in futures markets, the ceasefire is showing cracks within hours of being announced. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday that Israel supports Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran, but that the ceasefire "does not include Lebanon." This directly contradicts Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif, who said the agreement applied "everywhere, including Lebanon."
Israel's military followed Netanyahu's statement with what it described as the largest coordinated strike of the current war, hitting more than 100 Hezbollah targets in Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley within 10 minutes. Lebanon's health ministry reported dozens killed and hundreds wounded. Hezbollah responded by saying that if Israel does not adhere to the ceasefire, "no party will commit to it, and there will be a response from the region, including Iran."
Iran's own posture adds to the uncertainty. The Iranian Navy warned that ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran's coordination would be "targeted and destroyed," and Iran temporarily halted traffic through the waterway despite the ceasefire announcement. Meanwhile, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait reported fresh Iranian drone and missile attacks overnight, with Saudi Arabia intercepting nine drones targeting its territory. Vice President JD Vance, speaking from Budapest, called the arrangement a "fragile truce" and warned that factions within the Iranian system had been "lying" about the nature of the agreement.
What it means for markets
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said the ceasefire confirmed his view that the bottom for equities is in, and lowered his probability of a US recession back to 20% from 35%. However, he cautioned that "a two-week pause is not a resolution" and that markets would remain sensitive to any breakdown in talks. The Russell 2000 remains positive for the year with gains above 5%, while the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still in the red on a year-to-date basis.
Gold rose about 2% to near $4,820 per ounce, supported by a weaker US Dollar and lingering safe-haven demand. The US Dollar Index fell more than 1% to around 98.50, its weakest level in weeks, as the de-escalation reduced demand for the Greenback.
The key risk from here is straightforward: this is a two-week window, not a peace deal. If talks in Islamabad collapse, if Israel's strikes on Lebanon provoke an Iranian retaliation that breaches the truce, or if the Strait of Hormuz fails to reopen in any meaningful way, the rally could reverse just as fast as it began.
Dow Jones 15-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya note that Hungarian inflation in March 2026 surprised on the downside versus expectations but remained above February’s decade low. They highlight favourable core and services dynamics, yet stress that higher energy prices and Hungarian Forint (HUF) volatility keep risks elevated. ING projects Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising toward 4.5% by year-end, modestly above the National Bank of Hungary’s (MNB) 3% target.
Inflation shock contained but risks linger
"Hungarian inflation in March was lower than expected, but still higher than the extremely low figure recorded in the previous month."
"Inflation in March 2026 increased slightly from the decade-low level reached in February, according to the latest data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO). This is clearly a positive surprise, meaning that inflation rose by less than expected as a result of the war in the Middle East."
"The core inflation rate – adjusted for volatile items (including changes in fuel prices) – has shown a more favourable picture. In fact, it declined compared to the previous month to moderate to 1.9% on a year-on-year basis."
"According to our latest flash estimate, the year-on-year inflation rate could rise to around 3.0-3.5% by the end of the first half of the year and reach around 4.5% by the end of the year. Inflation has essentially begun to rise from a 10-year low, and for now, the pace of acceleration remains moderate."
"We therefore estimate that 2026 average inflation might ultimately settle in the vicinity of – but somewhat above – the central bank’s 3% inflation target."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI plunges over 10% on Wednesday after the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
- The fragile nature of the ceasefire and ongoing regional tensions limit further losses.
- EIA data show US crude stocks rise by 3.08M barrels, above expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades sharply lower on Wednesday, falling more than 10% after a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. At the time of writing, WTI is trading near $89.50 per barrel, after hitting an intraday low near $86, marking its lowest level since March 25.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Washington would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran ensures the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signaled that safe transit through the key shipping route could be maintained during this period, raising expectations that global energy flows may normalize.
However, further downside appears limited, with prices stabilizing after the sharp pullback. Reports of continued airstrikes between Israel and Lebanon, along with warnings from Iranian officials that Tehran could withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks persist, highlight the fragile nature of the agreement.
In addition, according to the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West oil pipeline, which carries crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export, has been attacked.
Against this backdrop, traders are likely to remain sensitive to headlines around the durability of the ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the outcome of upcoming US-Iran negotiations scheduled later this week.
On the data front, the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed Crude Oil inventories increased by 3.081 million barrels, compared to a rise of 5.451 million barrels in the previous week and above market expectations for a 0.7 million build.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- A fragile ceasefire sparke a short-lived risk-on sentiment, weakening the USD/JPY.
- Iran’s demands reduce the chances of a durable agreement, keeping tensions high.
- Israel promises to fight on in Lebanon, reducing chances of lasting peace agreement.
The USD/JPY pair fell near the 158.30 region on Wednesday, even as the United States (US), Iran and Israel had agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
The so-called "agreement" appears highly fragile, containing numerous conditions that have not yet been fulfilled by all parties involved. Ongoing reports of attacks throughout the Middle East emphasize the instability of the situation. Despite the announcement of a ceasefire, Israel has stated that its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon will continue, reinforcing the notion that a complete de-escalation is still far off.
US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire via Truth Social, tying it to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Oil chokepoint. However, the Strait remains closed for now. A senior Iranian official suggested it could reopen later this week, potentially ahead of a planned meeting between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Iran is reportedly pushing for conditions that are unlikely to be accepted, continuing its nuclear enrichment program, asserting control and charging fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, full sanctions relief, a withdrawal of US forces from the region, and compensation for war-related damages. These demands significantly reduce the probability of a lasting agreement, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.35, retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.36 and the 100-period SMA at 159.23. The pair has slipped back under intraday resistance at 158.46, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.5 hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting downside pressure persists but short-term selling could start to lose momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is now located at 158.46, ahead of a wider supply zone defined by the 100-period SMA at 159.23 and the 20-period SMA at 159.36. On the downside, initial support appears at 158.25, with further cushions at 158.05 and then 157.89; a decisive break beneath this band would open the door to a deeper pullback in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Gold trims gains after hitting three-week highs on US-Iran ceasefire news.
- Softer US Dollar and falling Oil prices support XAU/USD.
- Technically, XAU/USD shows a mild bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day SMA, with momentum indicators turning supportive.
Gold (XAU/USD) gives back part of its earlier gains after rising to three-week highs on Wednesday following news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,755, up nearly 1% on the day after touching an intraday high of $4,857.
US-Iran ceasefire lifts market sentiment
US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, provided that Tehran ensures the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated that safe transit through the Strait could be maintained during this period in coordination with Iranian armed forces.
The first round of negotiations is scheduled to take place in Islamabad on Friday, where Iran’s 10-point peace proposal will be discussed. Trump described the proposal as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
The ceasefire news eases fears of a prolonged war and lifts market sentiment, supporting a risk-on mood. Global equities are rallying while the US Dollar (USD) comes under broad pressure, lending support to XAU/USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.80, down nearly 0.87% on the day.
However, uncertainty remains elevated. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, citing an unnamed source, Tehran has warned it could withdraw from the ceasefire agreement if attacks on Lebanon persist.
Oil slump eases inflation concerns
Meanwhile, Oil prices also retreat sharply, with WTI falling more than 10% to trade near $87 at the time of writing. The pullback in Crude helps ease inflation pressure and may reduce the need for tighter monetary policy from major central banks.
This shift in expectations supports Gold, which had previously struggled as markets priced in a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, particularly from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Even so, the metal lacks strong follow-through buying as traders expect the Fed to remain patient before resuming rate cuts, with recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data pointing to a stable labor market and Oil prices still holding above pre-conflict levels, keeping inflation risks in focus.
Looking ahead, investors will closely watch the Fed’s minutes from the March meeting, due later in the American session, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades between key SMAs as momentum improves
According to the daily chart, XAU/USD sits between its major moving averages, holding beneath the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,927.91 but above the 100-day SMA at $4,667.44, which suggests a broadly neutral near-term bias within a developing range. Momentum is mildly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near the midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, hinting that buyers retain a slight edge while price remains capped by overhead trend reference levels.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 50-day SMA, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way for a more decisive recovery phase. On the downside, initial support is located at the 100-day SMA near $4,667.89, where a clear break lower would likely shift focus back toward a deeper corrective leg despite the currently improving momentum backdrop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
- USD/CAD extends losses for a third day as easing geopolitical tensions weigh on the US Dollar.
- A temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran lifts market sentiment.
- Focus shifts to key data, including Fed minutes, US PCE, CPI, and Canada jobs report.
USD/CAD trades with a downside bias on Wednesday, as the US Dollar (USD) comes under broad selling pressure following a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3847, extending losses for the third straight day.
US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, provided that Tehran ensures the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Meanwhile, Tehran has agreed that safe transit through the Strait can be maintained during this period in coordination with Iranian armed forces.
In reaction, the US Dollar slid to one-month lows as traders unwound long positions after the ceasefire reduced immediate geopolitical risks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.80, down nearly 0.85% on the day.
However, uncertainty remains elevated as reports of airstrikes between Israel and Lebanon continue to emerge. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, citing an unnamed source, Tehran has warned it could withdraw from the ceasefire agreement if attacks on Lebanon persist.
In a separate development, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cautioned that any entry of foreign aircraft into its airspace would be considered a breach of the ceasefire.
Against this backdrop, further downside in USD/CAD could remain limited as lingering geopolitical risks and uncertainty around the durability of the ceasefire keep markets cautious.
On the Canadian Dollar side, the Loonie shows a muted reaction to Oil price moves, as broader US Dollar dynamics continue to dominate price action.
On the monetary policy front, the earlier surge in Oil prices raised concerns about inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) may keep interest rates higher for longer or even raise rates. However, the recent pullback in Crude is now easing some of those pressures, prompting markets to reassess the policy outlook.
Looking ahead, attention will also turn to upcoming economic data and central bank signals, with the Fed’s meeting minutes due later on Wednesday, followed by US PCE on Thursday and US CPI and Canada’s jobs data on Friday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.84% | -1.10% | -0.79% | -0.27% | -1.19% | -1.82% | -1.05% | |
| EUR | 0.84% | -0.28% | 0.04% | 0.55% | -0.34% | -1.02% | -0.23% | |
| GBP | 1.10% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 0.84% | -0.04% | -0.71% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.79% | -0.04% | -0.32% | 0.52% | -0.37% | -1.03% | -0.26% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.55% | -0.84% | -0.52% | -0.89% | -1.53% | -0.78% | |
| AUD | 1.19% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.37% | 0.89% | -0.67% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 1.82% | 1.02% | 0.71% | 1.03% | 1.53% | 0.67% | 0.78% | |
| CHF | 1.05% | 0.23% | -0.05% | 0.26% | 0.78% | -0.10% | -0.78% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Sterling extends gains as the ceasefire in Iran sparks broad-based US Dollar selling.
- Falling oil prices and improving sentiment supported the Pound’s rally.
- Fragile ceasefire risks and regional attacks could still cap upside.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rallies on Wednesday, advancing for the third straight day this week, up more than 1.10% due to broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, sparked by an improvement in risk appetite following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3431, after hitting a five-week high of 1.3484 earlier in the day.
Sterling jumps as ceasefire hopes lift risk and crush haven bids
Late on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week truce, subject to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US had achieved its military objectives. Trump wrote that he received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believes “it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
A Senior Iranian official said that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen on Thursday or Friday ahead of the meeting in Pakistan, if a ceasefire framework is reached. Meanwhile, US President Trump warned to impose 50% tariffs effective immediately on countries supplying military weapons to Iran with no exception.
Nevertheless, the truce seems fragile, as Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit by a drone attack. Kuwait reported that fires broke out at several energy sites following attacks, including power stations, resulting in "severe material damage to infrastructure facilities, generation units and fuel tanks."
Market participants cheered Trump’s decision as global equities recovered, Gold reached a daily high past $4,800, the Greenback retreated, and Oil prices sank. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, plunges 0.70% down to 98.79.
Major central banks were relieved of the risk of a second round of inflation sparked by the ongoing energy shock blamed on the conflict. Traders expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold rates unchanged throughout the year, but as of writing, have priced in nearly 10 basis points of easing toward year-end, according to Prime Market Terminal.
Fed interest rate probabilities
Later on Wednesday, the Fed will release its last meeting minutes, in which the central bank decided to hold rates unchanged, amid speculation that Iran’s war could push prices higher, potentially spreading to core goods and services.
In the UK, the swaps market trimmed hawkish bets on the Bank of England (BoE). Prior to Trump’s post, markets had priced in at least two BoE rate hikes. That changed since the headline, with traders expecting just one rate increase towards the end of the year.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3440, holding just underneath a dense cluster of the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) near 1.3448, which collectively cap the topside and keep the near-term bias bearish. The pair is trading above the downwards resistance trend line’s break area around 1.3147, suggesting that while broader downside pressure persists, the recent move is more of a consolidation below key moving-average resistance, with the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index hinting at lingering sensitivity to US policy expectations.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the confluent 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around 1.3448; a daily close above this band would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward the former uptrend-line break region near 1.3780. On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the prior downtrend-line break zone around 1.3147, and a drop back toward that area would reinforce the view that the pair has failed to clear its moving-average ceiling.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.84% | -1.10% | -0.78% | -0.26% | -1.18% | -1.79% | -1.06% | |
| EUR | 0.84% | -0.29% | 0.06% | 0.57% | -0.34% | -1.00% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 1.10% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.86% | -0.04% | -0.69% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.78% | -0.06% | -0.32% | 0.51% | -0.38% | -1.01% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.57% | -0.86% | -0.51% | -0.89% | -1.51% | -0.81% | |
| AUD | 1.18% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.38% | 0.89% | -0.65% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 1.79% | 1.00% | 0.69% | 1.01% | 1.51% | 0.65% | 0.73% | |
| CHF | 1.06% | 0.25% | -0.04% | 0.29% | 0.81% | -0.10% | -0.73% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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