Forex News
- AUD/USD trades near 0.6950 after Wednesday’s 0.68% drop on broad Dollar strength.
- Australian CPI eased to 3.7%, while trimmed mean held at 3.3%, still above target.
- Middle East risks and rising energy prices keep inflation concerns and volatility elevated.
The Australian Dollar begins Thursday's session with minuscule gains of 0.04%, after posting losses of 0.68% on Wednesday, courtesy of broad US Dollar strength, despite improved risk appetite. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6950.
Aussie pares losses after softer Australian inflation, but broad US Dollar strength keeps upside limited
Geopolitics are driving the financial markets' narrative, as each new headline keeps investors uneasy amid information about the US-Iran war, shifting the markets' mood. Growing speculation about the start of US-Iran talks to end the war in the Middle East pushed US equities, the US Dollar and Gold prices higher, while US Treasury bond yields tumbled.
On Wednesday, Australian inflation was mostly unchanged in February, a relief for Aussie households. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 3.8% to 3.7% YoY, though it remained above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3% target.
Trimmed mean CPI was 3.3% YoY, unchanged from January's downward revised reading from 3.4% to 3.3%.
It's worth noting that the data were collected before the Middle East conflict, which has sent global energy prices soaring, heightening worldwide inflationary risks.
Recently, the RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said that the Iran war has tightened financial conditions, adding that the supply shock posed a risk to inflation. He added that "Central banks cannot change that. But they can ensure that the initial rise in prices does not lead to a rise in longer term inflationary expectations and extended inflationary pressures."
Last week, the RBA raised interest rates to 4.1% on a narrow vote split, which, according to RBA's Governor Bullock, was due not to the policy stance but to the timing.
In the US, Fed Governor Stephen Miran remained dovish, saying that the Fed's inflation mandate "has not been so problematic," while adding that the job market has been in an "extended streak of getting weaker." Miran insisted that the Fed should cut towards neutral this year.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6942. The near-term bias turns mildly bearish after the pair slipped below the cluster of rising closes supported by the latest uptrend line from 0.6897 and retreated from the recent 0.7150 area. Price now trades under that broken support region near 0.7000, with the spot also slipping beneath the rising simple moving averages that had been guiding the advance, indicating fading upside control. The RSI has rolled down toward the low-40s from the 60 area, confirming a loss of bullish momentum and pointing to building downside pressure rather than an immediate oversold condition.
Initial resistance emerges at the former support band around 0.7000, where the broken short-term trend line and nearby moving averages now cap rebounds, followed by the recent swing highs near 0.7080 and then 0.7120. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 0.6900, just above the broader ascending trend structure from 0.6673, with a break exposing the next bearish target near 0.6800. A daily close back above 0.7000 would ease the current downside bias, while failure to reclaim that level keeps focus on lower supports as sellers press the correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned that if the Middle East conflict prolongs, the economic damage would be greater and policymakers would need to cap inflation amid surging energy prices.
In a speech in Sydney, he said that the Iran war tightens financial conditions but also increases the risks of an inflation spiral.
Key takeaways:
WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE COUNTERVAILING FORCES OPERATING ON THE ECONOMY
BOARD WILL SET MONETARY POLICY TO ACHIEVE LOW, STABLE INFLATION AND FULL EMPLOYMENT
THE LONGER THE CONFLICT PERSISTS, THE LARGER THE ECONOMIC IMPACT WILL BE
THIS COULD PUSH SHORT-RUN NEUTRAL RATES HIGHER, NECESSITATE MORE RESTRICTIVE POLICY
NEED TO ENSURE INITIAL RISE IN PRICES DOES NOT LEAD TO RISE IN LONGER TERM INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS
THIS IMPLIES A DECLINE IN SHORT-RUN NEUTRAL RATES HERE AND OFFSHORE
MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT HAS LED TO SOME TIGHTENING IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
HOWEVER, THE SUPPLY SHOCK ALSO POSES RISK TO INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma present a China GDP Nowcast indicating real GDP growth likely improved to 4.7% in 1Q 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025. They highlight solid early‑year data, with industrial activity and external demand supporting growth, while consumption is stable and investment and credit remain weak. Annual GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026.
Nowcast points to stronger first quarter
"This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter."
"Monthly data releases for Jan-Feb show that China has started 2026 on a solid footing."
"As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is projected to improve to 4.7% in 1Q from 4.5% in Q4 last year."
"Growth in Q1 will be supported by strong industrial activity and external demand for Chinese goods, while consumption remained broadly stable."
"We expect China’s annual GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (5.0% in 2025). Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices, specifically Brent averaging USD100 in rest of the year, present mild downside risks to China's growth, potentially leading to a 0.5ppt fall in GDP."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Safe-haven demand and rate differentials support the Greenback, capping NZD/USD near 0.5800.
- Iran’s reluctance to engage with the US sustains a cautious mood, hurting risk-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi.
- The pair trades between 0.5800 and 0.5840, maintaining an indecisive tone amid limited recovery attempts.
The NZD/USD pair fell to the 0.5800 region, remaining under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) stays firm amid geopolitical uncertainty and elevated yields.
The Greenback continues to draw support from rate differentials and safe-haven demand, particularly as uncertainty resurfaced after Iran signaled reluctance to engage with the United States (US), keeping markets cautious and favoring the USD. This backdrop limits any meaningful recovery in the Kiwi.
Short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5806. The near-term bias remains mildly bearish as the pair holds below both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which cap price at around 0.5826 and 0.5867, respectively, and slope gently lower. This alignment keeps sellers in control on rallies, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 43 remains below the 50 midline, reinforcing a downside-tilted momentum backdrop rather than oversold exhaustion.
Immediate resistance appears at 0.5809, with a stronger cap at 0.5814, where failure would leave the broader bearish structure intact while keeping the 20-period SMA overhead. A sustained break above 0.5814 would expose the 0.5826 area near the short-term average, and then the mid-0.5860s region around the 100-period SMA. On the downside, initial support is located at 0.5805, followed by 0.5803; a clear drop through this band would open the way toward the 0.5780–0.5770 region implied by the prevailing downward bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that APAC balance-of-payments pressures from the Iran conflict and energy by-products are increasingly driving currency flows, with MYR, THB, AUD and PHP in focus. Core North Asian exporters appear more resilient thanks to reserves and savings, while Southeast Asia and Australia face fuel shortages and weaker terms of trade. Markets are expected to stay cautious on these currencies despite some positioning resilience.
Energy shock drives APAC currency caution
"Four weeks into the Iran conflict, markets are steadily appreciating the importance of the Gulf region in exporting energy by-products. From helium to urea, many of these inputs are essential to whole swathes of the APAC economy. While mineral fuels remain the biggest source of regional balance-of-payments stress, the global nature of the current supply shock will likely lead to a wider negative terms-of-trade shock, forcing governments to react accordingly."
"Core North Asian export-driven economies have sufficient energy resilience over the coming months. Crucially, their reserve coverage levels are high enough to withstand higher import costs over an extended period. High levels of precautionary savings and strong fiscal resources (ex-Japan) represent an additional buffer, to the extent that we don’t see strong FX or fixed income outflows as a major concern for now."
"The situation is different for the rest of APAC. Some of the most aggressive government responses along the lines of fuel rationing have been seen in Southeast Asia – President Marcos of the Philippines stated on Tuesday that he couldn’t even rule out planes being grounded due to the lack of jet fuel. Even Australia, despite being a crucial net exporter of natural gas, is facing shortages of refined petroleum, which is impeding a stronger terms-of-trade adjustment."
"Despite the clear challenges, the only regional currencies that were net sold over the past month are those whose starting position was overheld. Reducing exposures was therefore quite straightforward. MYR, THB and AUD, by contrast, were already significantly underheld, so the marginal benefit of adding to hedges for cross-border investors proved more limited."
"We expect markets to remain cautious on these currencies, but the swift change in behavior can help build resilience over time and reduce risk premia."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF rebounds from 100-day SMA, extending gains for a second day.
- RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum building toward overbought territory.
- Break above 0.8000 exposes YTD high and 0.8124 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair advances for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, up by nearly 0.45% after bouncing off the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), slightly above the 0.7900 figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7915 as the US Dollar (USD) remains boosted by geopolitical uncertainty.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Recently, USD/CHF has been trading sideways due to the lack of a clear catalyst amid the Middle East war. Still, over the last two days, buyers have been pressing towards clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7946, a key resistance level on the buyers’ path towards 0.8000.
Momentum confirms that bulls are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above its 50-neutral level and heading towards overbought territory.
With that said, USD/CHF needs to surpass the key resistance level at 0.7946. If buyers reclaim 0.8000, it opens the door to challenging the year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.8040. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the November 5 swing high at 0.8124.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.35% | 0.48% | 0.35% | 0.69% | 0.48% | 0.47% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.05% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.29% | 0.10% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | 0.05% | 0.13% | -0.00% | 0.33% | 0.16% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.48% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.20% | 0.03% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.35% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.34% | 0.17% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | -0.29% | -0.33% | -0.20% | -0.34% | -0.18% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.48% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.17% | 0.18% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.47% | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.12% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses Indonesia’s onshore markets as they reopen after the Lebaran holiday to a backdrop of uncertain geopolitics and volatile global sentiment. She notes likely cautious trading in IDR assets, potential budget reallocations and efficiency measures, rising inflation pressures, and reduced prospects for further monetary easing in Indonesia this year.
IDR assets face cautious post-holiday reopening
"Indonesia’s onshore markets are set to reopen following the long Lebaran break, with investors confronting a still uncertain geopolitical environment."
"Global markets have swung between hope and despair amidst signs of a brief respite in hostilities, which is quickly followed by conflicting statements by the key actors."
"Local authorities are reportedly mulling over risk mitigation steps in the face of an increase in energy costs and supply shortages, including work-from-home work policy, seek to curb non-essential use of vehicles/ transport and hybrid school sessions to conserve fuel usage, according to the local press reports."
"Risks to price stability and heightened financial market volatility are likely to dampen expectations for additional monetary easing this year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, March 26:
Markets were driven by a shift in geopolitical sentiment as reports of potential ceasefire talks initially eased tensions. However, uncertainty quickly resurfaced after Iran signaled reluctance to engage with the United States, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress and keeping markets on edge.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed just below the 100 mark, trading near 99.50, as the Greenback remained supported by rate differentials and safe-haven demand earlier in the week. Amid a deteriorating market mood, the USD held firm.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.33% | 0.47% | 0.28% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.04% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.06% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.33% | -0.07% | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.02% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.47% | -0.22% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.11% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell to near the 1.1570 region, slightly softer on the day as the stronger US Dollar (USD) capped the Euro’s (EUR) upside. The pair remained under pressure following weak Eurozone PMI data on Tuesday, with growth concerns continuing to weigh on the Euro.
GBP/USD slipped toward the 1.3370 zone, with the Pound struggling to regain terrain amid ongoing concerns about the United Kingdom (UK) growth and inflation dynamics.
USD/JPY surged to the 159.30 area, supported by elevated US yields and continued policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
AUD/USD fell to the 0.6960 range, the stronger USD amid risk and global growth, which in turn capped gains in the Aussie.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil had a slight surge near the $90.30 per barrel, easing from recent highs amid hopes of a ceasefire, which reduced immediate supply fears. However, prices remained elevated, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold surged toward the $4,550 region, benefiting from falling yields and easing oil-driven inflation fears, while still drawing support from lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr).
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- United States Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Mar).
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold rises above $4,500 as hopes for US-Iran talks improve market sentiment.
- Falling US yields offset a firmer Dollar, helping bullion recover from recent losses.
- Markets still price a hawkish Fed stance as inflation and energy risks remain elevated.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains nearly 2% on Wednesday as Oil futures prices tumbled amid growing speculation that the US and Iran would begin talks to end the conflict that started nearly four weeks ago. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,556.
Bullion rebounds as easing war fears drag Crude lower; US Treasury yields tumble
The US sent Iran a 15-point proposal that could end the war that began nearly four weeks ago. If Tehran agrees to resume talks with Washington, they could begin as early as Thursday and be held in either Pakistan or Turkey.
After the headline, risk appetite improved; Oil sank, and bullion capped its losses.
In the meantime, the Greenback continues to appreciate, as reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar performance against a basket of six currencies, is up nearly 0.40% to 99.55.
Recently, Iranian media reported that the regime has rejected the US proposal, but sources said the Iranians will get back to them later on Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal reported that "Iran is being less strident in private discussions to end the war than it is in public, Arab mediators and other people familiar with the matter said, giving them hope the diplomatic effort they are trying to spark isn't dead on arrival."
The decline in US Treasury bond yields drives bullion's advance during the day. The US 10-year Treasury note falls four basis points to 4.328%, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal.
A weak US Treasury auction on Tuesday of two-year Treasury notes drew unexpectedly weak demand, sending the US 2-year T-note yield up towards 3.936% amid investor speculation that inflation would rise sharply.
US import prices rose the most in four years in February, driven by surging energy costs before the Middle East conflict, an indication that the battle against inflation has not yet been won. Prices rose 1.3%, the largest increase since March 2022, exceeding forecasts for a 0.5% jump, following January's 0.2% increase.
On Tuesday, S&P Global revealed that US businesses paid more for inputs in March, due to surging energy costs and supply chain disruptions.
Money markets had priced out rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026; instead, traders are pricing in 4 basis points of tightening, according to Prime Market Terminal.
On Thursday, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21, along with speeches by the Fed's Cook, Miran, Jefferson, Logan, and Barr.
XAU/USD technical outlook: To remain range-bound, trapped within the 100- and 200-day SMAs
Gold price seems to have bottomed during the week after almost testing key support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $4,083, which exacerbated a recovery towards the Tuesday high of $4,484 ahead of the $4,500 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although rising, suggests the yellow metal is bearishly biased, but in the short term seems poised to remain trading sideways.
If Gold clears the 100-day SMA around $4,592, the next target is $4,600. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at $4,961.
Conversely, if XAU/USD struggles to remain afloat of $4,500, bears could push prices towards the March 24 daily low of $4,305 ahead of the March 23 swing low of $4,098.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY posts consecutive gains after bouncing from 20-day SMA support.
- RSI signals bullish momentum, pointing toward a retest of weekly highs.
- Failure to clear 159.65 keeps focus on downside support levels.
USD/JPY registers back-to-back bullish days on Wednesday after testing key support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 158.24 on Monday, yet it remains shy of clearing the key weekly high of 159.65 hit on Monday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 159.27, up 0.36%.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The technical picture suggests that the USD/JPY pair might retest weekly highs in the short term. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), confirms the latter. Still, fears of Japanese authorities intervening in the FX markets could prevent USD bulls from pushing the pair towards the 160.00 milestone.
On the downside, the first area of interest is the 20-day SMA at 158.24. Once surpassed, it opens the door to challenging the March 19 daily low of 157.51, as the 50-day SMA emerges as the next key line of defense for bulls at around 156.56.
On further weakness, the next support would be the 100-day SMA at 156.26, ahead of 156.00.
USD/JPY Price Chart — Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.32% | -0.47% | -0.03% | 0.66% | 0.57% | 0.07% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | 0.32% | -0.14% | 0.33% | 1.00% | 0.89% | 0.40% | 0.70% | |
| GBP | 0.47% | 0.14% | 0.40% | 1.16% | 1.05% | 0.54% | 0.77% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.33% | -0.40% | 0.65% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.66% | -1.00% | -1.16% | -0.65% | -0.07% | -0.58% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.57% | -0.89% | -1.05% | -0.58% | 0.07% | -0.50% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.40% | -0.54% | -0.08% | 0.58% | 0.50% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.70% | -0.77% | -0.28% | 0.31% | 0.28% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
