Forex News

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to leave the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy unchanged at Monday’s meeting despite a modest rebound in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 1.6% year-on-year in June. They argue the move does not yet signal a broad or persistent inflation impulse, and say a balanced hold should limit SGD reaction, though emphasis on imported inflation could keep S$NEER firm.

Policy pause but watch statement tone

"Our base case for upcoming MAS MPS looks for a hold at Monday’s meeting."

"The modest rebound warrants some caution, but it does not yet suggest the broad or persistent inflation impulse needed to justify another tightening so soon after Apr."

"A hold should therefore be seen as MAS taking more time to assess lagged imported-cost and energy pass-through, rather than signalling an all-clear on inflation."

"A balanced hold should see limited SGD reaction, while greater emphasis on lagged imported inflation or renewed domestic price pressures could keep S$NEER firm."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/JPY remains capped within 186.00-187.00 as intervention fears linger.
• RSI holds bullish territory, signaling buyers retain momentum advantage.
• Break above 187.00 exposes YTD high and 190.00 resistance.

The EUR/JPY consolidates around 186.00, edges down by 0.06% amid a souring of risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran war, and strengthens safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY trades sideways after reaching the year-to-date (YTD) high of 187.95. The cross-pair dipped toward the 183.00 area following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) last intervention, and since then buyers have reclaimed key resistance levels to reach the 186.00 mark.

At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY remains capped within the 186.00-187.00 range, amid fears that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange markets. But bulls seem to be gaining momentum as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory.

Buyers need to clear 187.00 to challenge the YTD high at 187.95. Once those levels are taken out, the next resistance would be the 189.00 mark ahead of the 190.00 psychological level. 

On the other hand, if sellers push the EUR/JPY below the July 20 low of 185.35, it exacerbates a move toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 185.20, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.05. Still lower lies the 200-day SMA at 183.29.

EUR/JPY daily price chart

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng argues that Malaysia’s financial markets reflect confidence in the country’s solid domestic fundamentals despite lingering Middle East geopolitical risks. The Malaysian Ringgit has outperformed regional peers, government bond yields remain stable, and resilient growth data have led DBS to upgrade its 2026 real GDP forecast to 5.2% from 4.7% previously.

Ringgit strength and resilient GDP outlook

"Malaysia’s financial markets are signalling investor confidence in the economy’s solid domestic fundamentals, even as geopolitical risks in the Middle East linger."

"The Malaysian ringgit has outperformed its regional peers so far this year, reflecting resilient bond portfolio inflows, although it has weakened beyond the MYR4.00-per-USD handle since early June."

"Government bond yields have remained relatively stable across the curve, with upside pressures contained, and we expect this trend to continue."

"Following strong growth of 5.6% yoy in 1H26, we are raising our 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 4.7% previously."

"We expect growth to remain resilient in the coming quarters, with the diversified economy supported by sustained domestic demand, and favourable exports prospects driven by global artificial intelligence-related tailwinds."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August. USD/KRW fell to 1,475, with the Won aided by portfolio inflows into bonds and equities.

Growth surprise bolsters BoK hike case

"The advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% qoq sa (Bloomberg consensus: 0.4%) vs 1.8% in Q1. This suggests that growth momentum remained resilient despite energy supply disruptions."

"On an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.5%) vs 3.8% previously. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) recently upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 3.0% from 2.0%, reflecting the stronger outlook for exports and investment."

"On monetary policy, the strong Q2 GDP reading supports the case of another 25bp hike to 3.0% by the Bank of Korea (BoK) at the 27 August meeting. At the previous meeting, Governor Shin Hyun-sung described August as a “live” meeting, reinforcing the BoK’s data-dependent approach."

"With growth remaining resilient, inflation above target, and the AI-driven export boom broadening into wages and domestic demand, policymakers have scope to continue normalising policy."

"In FX, USD-KRW fell 0.2% to 1,475 yesterday. The pair initially dropped 0.9% following the GDP release before paring some of its losses later in the session. Portfolio inflows provided support for KRW, with foreign investors purchasing USD1.0bn of domestic bonds and USD3.7bn of equities so far this week."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ). United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, Australian inflation and preliminary Eurozone growth and inflation figures will also attract significant attention.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.50 ahead of a particularly busy United States (US) economic calendar. Monday’s Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound by 1.6% in June after falling 4.5% previously, while orders excluding transportation are forecast to rise 0.9%.

Tuesday’s calendar includes Consumer Confidence and the ADP Employment Change four-week average, which eased to 16.5K previously. However, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be the main event for the Greenback.

The Fed is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. This will be a lighter meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections (aka the updated dot plot), leaving the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference as the main sources of guidance. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the July 28–29 gathering is not one of the meetings associated with updated economic projections.

The Fed decision will be followed by a major batch of US releases on Thursday. Preliminary second-quarter GDP is expected to show annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 2.1%, while monthly Core PCE inflation is forecast to slow to 0.1% from 0.3%. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 206K from 187K.

Headline PCE inflation previously stood at 4.1% YoY, while the Core PCE Price Index was at 3.4%. Stronger growth or persistent inflation could support the Fed’s restrictive stance, while softer price pressures may reduce expectations of additional tightening.

EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1370 despite encouraging July business-activity figures from Germany and the wider Eurozone. The Euro will face a busy domestic calendar, beginning with Monday’s German IFO surveys. The Business Climate Index is expected to improve to 86.1 from 85.6, while the EcoFin meeting and Bundesbank Monthly Report will also be monitored.

German inflation figures will also be released on Thursday, followed by broader Eurozone inflation data on Friday. Eurozone headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%, while the core rate is forecast to remain at 2.4%. Eurostat has scheduled the next Eurozone flash inflation estimate for July 31.

Stronger growth and inflation figures could support the Euro by reducing expectations of additional European Central Bank (ECB) easing. However, EUR/USD will also remain highly sensitive to the Fed decision and the direction of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trades slightly higher near 1.3325 as investors prepare for Thursday’s BoE monetary policy announcement. The central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, following the previous 7–2 vote in favor of holding rates.

The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes, Monetary Policy Summary and quarterly Monetary Policy Report. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak following the announcement. The BoE confirms that the July 30 meeting will include both the policy decision and updated economic projections.

USD/JPY holds near 163.80 ahead of a busy Japanese calendar and next Friday’s BoJ decision. Tokyo inflation will be released late Thursday, with CPI Excluding Fresh Food expected to rise 1.8% YoY from 1.6%. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 2.5%, while Retail Trade growth is expected to slow to 2.8% from 5.3%.

The BoJ is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.00%. The monetary policy statement will be accompanied by the quarterly Outlook Report and followed by the Bank’s press conference. The BoJ calendar confirms that the meeting will take place on July 30 and 31, with the decision and Outlook Report scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6980 ahead of several important Australian releases. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Tuesday, before June inflation figures are published on Wednesday. Monthly headline CPI is expected to increase 0.3% after falling 0.7% in May. Annual inflation previously stood at 4.0%, while the Trimmed Mean CPI was at 3.6% YoY. The underlying monthly measure is forecast to rise another 0.4%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has scheduled the June CPI report for July 29.

China’s official PMIs will also be important for the China-sensitive Australian Dollar. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.9 from 50.3, signaling a return to contraction, while Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 50.0 from 50.2.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades lower near $89.20 per barrel after falling sharply on reports that Pakistan and Iran are exploring a path towards renewed US-Iran negotiations under a diplomatic push initiated by China. However, sources cautioned that substantial obstacles remain before negotiations can resume, leaving crude prices vulnerable to further geopolitical volatility.

Gold advances near $4,065 as investors prepare for a central-bank-heavy week. The precious metal will be particularly sensitive to the Fed’s policy language, US inflation figures and Treasury yields. A hawkish message from Warsh could weigh on Gold, while softer PCE inflation or renewed geopolitical uncertainty may support demand for the non-yielding asset.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Tuesday, July 28:

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock

Thursday, July 30:

• BoE Governor Bailey

Central banks meetings and upcoming data releases

Wednesday, July 29:

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The meeting will not include updated projections or a dot plot, placing the focus on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

Thursday, July 30:

The Bank of England is expected to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report.

Friday, July 31:

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00%. The central bank will also release its monetary policy statement and quarterly Outlook Report.

• NZD/USD tests 0.5800 as 50-day SMA caps recovery.
• RSI turns bullish but fading slope warns of downside risk.
• Break below 0.5762 exposes 0.5743 and 0.5700 supports.

The New Zealand Dollar gains over 0.30% against the US Dollar on Friday. The pair is poised to test key resistance levels with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5793, slightly below the 0.5800 figure. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5789, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.5767.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The Kiwi Dollar seems to recover during the day, but the overall trend is downwards, until the pair reclaims the May 29 high of 0.5995. Momentum turned bullish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but seems to be fading as the index is about to pierce bearish territory.

As of writing, the NZD/USD is testing key resistance below 0.5800. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the 100- day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.5823, followed by the July 21 high at 0.5874. Above this area, the next resistance is the 0.5900, followed by the May 29 high beneath 0.6000.

On the other hand, if NZD/USD breaches the low of the week (LOW) of 0.5762, it opens the door for further downside. The next key support is the July 13 low of 0.5743, followed by 0.5700. Beneath lies the July 7 high at 0.5672.

NZD/USD daily price chart

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Thai Baht (THB) is trading near its weakest level in more than a year against the US Dollar (USD), as volatile oil prices, a firmer USD and higher US yields weigh on the currency. They highlight the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) accommodative stance and tolerance for gradual weakness, but warn that sharper depreciation could test policymakers if oil remains elevated and imported inflation builds.

High energy costs and policy stance weigh

"THB stayed under pressure as rise in oil prices was compounded by firmer USD, higher US yields while BoT’s still-accommodative stance added to the drag."

"THB remained under pressure near 15-month low (vs. USD), with the renewed oil shock now compounded by a firmer USD and higher US yields."

"This remains a challenging backdrop for THB given its reliance on imported energy, while the resulting inflation concerns have also reinforced expectations that US rates may stay elevated for longer."

"The BoT’s accommodative stance also offers little support to the THB, while Governor Vitai has also earlier signalled no urgency to tighten."

"That said, a sharper depreciation may test policymakers’ threshold especially if oil stays elevated and imported inflation builds."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1370 despite stronger-than-expected German and Eurozone PMI data.
• US Services PMI jumped to 53.6, keeping the US Dollar supported, while Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.8.
• Attention turns to next week’s Fed meeting with rates expected to remain at 3.50%–3.75%.

EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Friday, struggling despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone business-activity figures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmer near 101.50, offering limited support to the pair.

Germany’s preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 51.2 in July from 49.5, exceeding expectations of 49.8 and returning to expansion territory. Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.2 from 50.3, while Services PMI rose to 49.6 from 48.6 but remained below the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction.

Activity across the wider Eurozone also strengthened. The Composite PMI increased to 51.9 from 50.0, beating the 50.3 forecast. Manufacturing PMI advanced to 52.0, while Services PMI rose sharply to 51.6 from 49.4, indicating that the services sector returned to expansion.

The United States (US) preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.8 and missed expectations of 54.5, while the Services PMI surged to 53.6 from 51.2, significantly exceeding the 51.0 forecast. The strong services reading may keep US Treasury yields supported and prevent a deeper decline in the Greenback.

Risk sentiment also improved after reports that Pakistan and Iran are exploring a potential path toward renewed US-Iran negotiations under a China-backed diplomatic initiative. A possible reduction in regional tensions has contributed to a sharp decline in Oil prices and reduced some safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, although significant obstacles to negotiations remain.

Investors will now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 28–29 meeting. The Fed is expected to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The meeting will not include new economic projections or an updated dot plot, leaving the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference as the main drivers for EUR/USD.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1369 with a bearish near-term bias, holding beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1397 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1422. The pair is also trading under nearby horizontal caps at 1.1387 and 1.1391, reinforcing a topside ceiling, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 37, hinting at persistent downside pressure but not yet oversold conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is clustered just below the market at 1.1368 and 1.1366, where a break would open the door to an extension of the recent decline. On the topside, a recovery above the 1.1387–1.1391 band is needed to ease immediate pressure, with the 20-period SMA at 1.1397 then acting as the next barrier ahead of the 100-period SMA at 1.1422, whose clearance would be required to challenge the broader bearish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Falling Treasury yields support Gold’s recovery.
• Oil pullback eases inflation fears despite weekly crude gains.
• Fed decision, GDP and PCE data drive next catalyst.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts higher on Friday as the Greenback stands firm, even as growing speculation that the US-Iran war may last longer than expected could, in the end, hurt the prospects of the yellow metal. The XAU/USD trades at $4,065, up 0.38%.

XAU/USD gains as softer US yields counter Fed hike bets

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is slightly higher at 101.46 and poised to end the week with gains of over 0.60%. The yellow metal is also being propelled by the decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark note dropping three basis points to 4.667%.

The last tranche of geopolitical news hasn’t changed the needle in the Gulf War. Reports said Pakistan is looking to resume US-Iran talks at China's urging. Meanwhile, Trump revealed that he is losing patience over Iran and confirmed that China and Russia are not giving or selling weapons to Iran.

Friday’s schedule was light with US business activity steady. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly from 53.9 to 53.8, falling short of the expected 54.5. Meanwhile, the Services PMI rose from 51.2 to 53.6, surpassing forecasts of 51, helped by the World Cup held in the country.

Bullion’s advance is also propelled by easing Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude benchmark, is down 3.83% at $88.79, but is set to finish the week with gains of over 8.50%.

Money markets continued to increase the odds for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at next week’s meeting. On July 29, the Fed is projected to keep rates unchanged. There is a 59% chance of the US central bank standing pat, but a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike has nearly a 41% chance.

For the September meeting, the odds of a rate increase are at 84%, according to Prime Terminal data.

Besides next week’s Fed meeting, traders will eye US Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders, as well as jobs data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q2 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures report.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold drifts higher, but faces key resistance at $4,100

Gold’s downtrend remains intact as the market structure would be compromised until XAU/USD climbs above the June 17 cycle high seen at $4,382. Further signs of tailwinds for the downtrend are that the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) lie above the spot price of the yellow metal, and that sellers are dragging prices back below a resistance trendline.

Momentum as well, continues to push lower, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining bearish. Hence, the path of least resistance is downward.

The first support is $4,000, followed by the current year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941. A breach of those two levels paves the way to challenge the October 28, 2025, low of $3,886, with further support seen on the swing high-turned-support at $3,500, hit on April 22, 2025.

Conversely, if buyers aim for higher prices, they need to surpass $4,100. Above this, the weekly high of $4,165 is the next target, followed by the $4,200 resistance.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75%, opting to let earlier tightening filter through. Despite the pause, the team still expects three further hikes totalling 75 bps by end-2026 to stabilise the Rupiah and inflation expectations, while USD/IDR edged slightly higher after what markets perceived as a hawkish hold.

Further BI hikes expected to support Rupiah

"Bank Indonesia maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.75% at the Jul MPC meeting, likely choosing to allow the cumulative 100 bps tightening implemented between May and June to fully transmit through the real economy."

"Despite the policy pause, risks on rupiah’s trajectory coupled with market’s divided expectation of US Fed’s policy direction and upside risks to global inflation forecasts amid the rising energy prices continue to underpin our expectation of two additional 25 bps rate hikes in3Q26 and a final 25bps in the final quarter of 2026 to anchor rupiah’s stability and inflation expectations."

"This will bring the policy rate to a terminal level of6.50% by end-2026."

"In South East Asia, USD/IDR inched higher from 17,880 to 17,915, a day after Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates on a perceived “hawkish” hold."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)