Forex News
DBS economists Radhika Rao and Mo Ji forecast Singapore’s advance 2Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.8% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, slightly below 1Q26 but still resilient. They cite strong manufacturing and wholesale trade on AI-related electronics demand, robust modern services and construction, and expect non-oil domestic exports to post a fourth consecutive month of double-digit growth despite a slowdown from May.
AI demand underpins growth outlook
"We expect Singapore’s advance GDP growth estimate for 2Q26 to register 5.8% yoy, 1.5% qoq sa, remaining resilient compared with 6.0% yoy, 1.0% qoq sa in 1Q26."
"Manufacturing accelerated, while wholesale trade performed well despite some moderation, driven by robust global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronics."
"Modern services remained resilient, supported by continued momentum in the financial sector, as securities trading activity and credit growth picked up."
"The ongoing construction boom also underpinned domestic resilience."
"We see Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growing at a double-digit rate for the fourth consecutive month, albeit at 25.0% yoy in June, compared with 38.4% yoy in May."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver respects lower-high structure as bearish bias remains intact.
- RSI below 50 keeps downside momentum firmly in sellers’ hands.
- Break below $57.22 exposes YTD low and $54.30 support.
Silver price retreats on Friday during the North American session, edging down by 0.54%, weighed by high US Treasury yields and a sudden shift in market sentiment, after US President Trump revealed that the ceasefire is “over.” At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.66.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver is downward biased, as the market structure continues to respect the series of lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, below its 50-neutral level and aiming towards oversold territory. Given the reasons mentioned above and geopolitical uncertainty, the XAG/USD’s path of least resistance is downwards.
For a bearish resumption, traders must clear the July 8 daily low of $57.22. Below is the year-to-date (YTD) low of 55.63, set on June 22, as the white metal dropped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since mid-June. A breach of those two levels opens the door to a move towards the November 13, 2025, high-turned-support at $54.30.
On the flip side, Silver can shift neutral if buyers reclaim a downslope resistance trendline drawn from around June highs within the $62.25-$62.50 area. Once hurdled, this opens the door to challenge the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, each at $69.94 and $70.31.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Commerzbank’s report on Taiwan notes that stronger inflation, with core CPI at 2.5%, is likely to push the CBC towards a more hawkish stance, including a possible 12.5 bp hike in H2. Despite robust AI-driven exports and firm domestic demand, USD/TWD has risen to 32.19, though analysts expect a potential pullback once seasonal dividend outflows fade.
Hawkish CBC and AI-led growth
"Taiwan's June inflation surprised on the upside, with headline CPI rising to 2.6% yoy from 2.2% in May. This was the fastest pace since January 2025 and well above the Central Bank of the Republic of China’s (CBC) informal 2% threshold. Higher fuel, gas and electricity costs were the main drivers, but services inflation remained firm at 2.9% vs 2.5% previously."
"While lower oil prices should help moderate headline inflation in the coming months, the pickup in core inflation will be a concern for CBC. It strengthens the case for CBC to turn more hawkish. CBC last hiked the policy rate by 12.5 bp to 2% in March 2024 and has kept it there since. We could see a 12.5bp hike in H2 this year. The combination of AI-led income gains, strong domestic demand, and persistent services inflation gives CBC less scope to look through temporary energy-driven price pressures."
"Despite the strong economic performance, TWD remains on the backfoot with USD/TWD back towards the high for this year. Net seasonal dividend outflows have weighed on TWD, but once this fades, we could see a pullback in USD/TWD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The upcoming week will bring a major test for the US Dollar (USD), with investors focusing on the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and a broad set of activity indicators. China’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest-rate decision will also attract significant attention.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.00, recovering from a one-week low hit earlier on Friday as investors balance softer recent labor market data against renewed geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns. Tuesday’s US CPI report will be the central event for the Greenback.
Headline CPI is expected to decline 0.1% MoM in June, following a 0.5% increase in May, while annual inflation previously stood at 4.2%. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2%, while the annual core rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%.
On another note, Fed Chair Warsh will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday, giving markets an opportunity to assess how policymakers balance elevated inflation against signs of weaker hiring. Comments from several Fed officials and the release of the Beige Book will provide additional guidance.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.07% | -0.42% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.14% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.54% | -0.19% | -0.30% | -0.27% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | 0.05% | -0.50% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.23% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.42% | 0.54% | 0.50% | 0.34% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.60% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.19% | 0.13% | -0.34% | -0.10% | -0.08% | 0.27% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.25% | -0.25% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.35% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.23% | -0.25% | 0.08% | -0.02% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.60% | -0.27% | -0.35% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1420, retreating as the US Dollar recovers from its weekly low, and is set to finish the week with a 0.19% loss. The pair will remain highly sensitive to US CPI and Warsh’s testimony, while the European calendar includes industrial production and final inflation figures.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3400, with a weekly gain of around 0.34% after reaching a three-week high. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces an important domestic calendar, with United Kingdom (UK) GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing output due on Thursday. UK GDP is expected to grow 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.1% contraction. Industrial production is forecast to rise 0.1%, while manufacturing production is expected to decline 0.1% after increasing 0.4% previously.
USD/JPY trades lower near 161.70 on Friday but is set to close the week with a 0.24% gain. The pair will remain driven by US Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and concerns over possible intervention by Japanese authorities. A hotter-than-expected US CPI report could lift yields and revive upward pressure on USD/JPY. Softer inflation could extend the pair’s decline and offer further support to the Japanese Yen.
AUD/USD trades slightly higher near 0.6950, supported by a softer broader US Dollar backdrop and recent strength in the Chinese Yuan. However, the Aussie’s direction next week will depend heavily on Chinese economic data and US inflation. Wednesday’s Chinese GDP report is expected to show the economy expanding 4.4% YoY in the second quarter, slowing from 5%. Quarterly growth is forecast at 0.9%. Industrial production is expected to rise 4.7%, while retail sales are projected to decline 0.1% YoY.
USD/CAD trades lower near 1.4150 ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy decision. The BoC is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25%. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report, policy statement and press conference will be closely examined for guidance on inflation, domestic demand and future rate moves. A hawkish message could extend USD/CAD’s decline, while a cautious stance may limit the Canadian Dollar’s strength.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades muted near $71.60 per barrel as investors assess the risk of renewed supply disruptions linked to tensions between the United States and Iran. Oil prices could become more volatile if diplomatic efforts deteriorate further or concerns surrounding Middle Eastern supply routes intensify. However, signs of weaker global demand, particularly from China, may limit gains.
Gold trades lower near $4,102, losing ground as the US Dollar recovers and investors prepare for the US inflation report. The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, although higher Treasury yields could create additional pressure.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, July 13:
- Fed's Bowman
- Fed's Waller
- ECB’s Schnabel
- BoE's Pill
Tuesday, July 14:
- Fed's Warsh
- Fed's Barr
- Fed's Goolsbee
- Fed's Cook
- Fed's Bowman
- BoE's Bailey
Wednesday, July 15:
- Fed’s Williams
- Fed's Chair Warsh
- ECB’s Nagel
- Fed's Cook
- Fed’s Musalem
Thursday, July 16:
- Fed’s Logan
- Fed’s Schmid
- Fed's Jefferson
Friday, July 17:
- ECB’s Cipollone
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
The main monetary-policy event will be the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision on Wednesday, July 15. The central bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
The BoC will also publish its Monetary Policy Report and policy statement, followed by a press conference. No interest-rate decisions are scheduled from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA or RBNZ.
DBS economists Radhika Rao and Mo Ji expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to raise its base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% in July, citing persistent CPI inflation above 3% and resilient growth. They highlight robust exports and investment linked to the AI (Artificial intelligence) boom and note that Korean Won weakness and portfolio outflows further justify tighter monetary policy.
Korean policy tightening backed by data
"The Bank of Korea is expected to raise the base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% in July."
"The BoK signaled in June that it remains prepared to tighten monetary policy despite the recent decline in oil prices following the easing of tensions in the Middle East."
"CPI inflation has remained above 3% yoy for two consecutive months through June, and is expected to stay around this level for the remainder of the year, supported by lingering cost pass-through, elevated inflation expectations, and second-round effects."
"On the growth front, the economy continues to hold up well, driven primarily by robust exports and investment amid the AI boom."
"Meanwhile, the persistent weakness of the KRW, against the backdrop of portfolio capital outflows, provides an additional rationale for a rate hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights the Indonesian rupiah’s continued vulnerability as USD/IDR moved back above 18,000 amid renewed Middle East tensions and elevated US yields. Although attractive government bond and SRBI yields have supported foreign inflows into the bond market, persistent net foreign equity outflows leave the balance of risks tilted toward further rupiah weakness.
External pressures weigh on Rupiah
"We remain cautious on selective regional currencies, particularly the Indonesian rupiah."
"IDR led regional losses yesterday, with USDIDR rising 0.5% to move back above the 18,000 level."
"Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated US yields continue to exert external pressure on the rupiah."
"While elevated government bond and SRBI yields have helped attract foreign inflows into the bond market, Indonesia continues to face persistent net foreign equity outflows."
"Overall, the balance of risks remains tilted toward further rupiah weakness."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Trump allows talks, but declares the US-Iran ceasefire officially over.
- Fed minutes show inflation worries and rate-hike debate.
- CPI and Warsh testimony drive the next Gold catalyst.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats on Friday during the North American session, pressured by US President Donald Trump's comments allowing the resumption of US-Iran talks, but reiterating that the ceasefire is “over.” The XAU/USD pair trades at around $4,103, down 0.48%.
XAU/USD falls as renewed war risks lift yields and Dollar
The yellow metal seems poised to end the week down 0.51%, driven by the escalation of the conflict. The Greenback erased its earlier losses, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, holds firm at 100.94, unchanged.
In his Truth Social account, President Trump posted, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
After the post, US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year T-note up 2 basis points to 4.569%, amid fears that energy prices could rise, fueling fears of higher interest rates if hostilities continued.
Money markets have priced in an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase at the September meeting. Odds for the July 29 meeting suggest that the central bank will hold rates, with the chances for a hike being shy of 34%, according to Prime Terminal data.
The US economic docket was light this week, with the release of the FOMC's last meeting minutes, which were closely scrutinised for the absence of forward guidance. The minutes showed that officials are concerned about inflation, with a “few participants” seeing the case for a rate hike.
On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below estimates of 218K and the previous reading of 217K, an indication that the labor market is stable.
Now eyes turn to next week's economic docket, with investors eyeing the release of US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the US Congress.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below the 200-day SMA
Gold’s downtrend remains in play, as the market structure of a successive series of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Alongside this, momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is declining and is now in bearish territory, and XAU’s spot price is below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
With all three of those reasons in play, Bullion prices might continue to edge lower, so any leg-up could be an opportunity for sellers.
XAU/USD first support would be the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Going upwards, if Gold surpasses a downslope resistance trendline near $4,200, it opens the door for challenging the $4,300 milestone. Above this area, the next ceiling level is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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