Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 21:
The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes after outperforming its rivals this week on easing bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. The economic calendar will feature preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US on Friday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.70% | 0.57% | 1.62% | 0.50% | 1.33% | 1.36% | 1.28% | |
| EUR | -0.70% | -0.02% | 1.27% | -0.18% | 0.62% | 0.68% | 0.59% | |
| GBP | -0.57% | 0.02% | 1.03% | -0.16% | 0.64% | 0.70% | 0.62% | |
| JPY | -1.62% | -1.27% | -1.03% | -1.07% | -0.27% | -0.25% | -0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.50% | 0.18% | 0.16% | 1.07% | 0.83% | 0.86% | 0.78% | |
| AUD | -1.33% | -0.62% | -0.64% | 0.27% | -0.83% | 0.07% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -1.36% | -0.68% | -0.70% | 0.25% | -0.86% | -0.07% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -1.28% | -0.59% | -0.62% | 0.36% | -0.78% | 0.01% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September. This print followed the 4,000 decrease recorded in August and surpassed the market expectation of 50,000. Other details of the employment report showed that the change in NFP for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. After posting large gains on Wednesday, the USD Index continued to edge higher on Thursday and touched its highest level in two weeks above 100.30 before entering a consolidation phase. At the time of press, the USD Index was trading marginally lower on the day, holding slightly above 100.00.
During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that Exports increased by 3.6% on a yearly basis in October and Imports rose by 0.7%. Additionally, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 48.8 in November from 48.2 in October, while the Services PMI remained unchanged at 53.1. In the meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus plan. USD/JPY edges slightly lower in the European morning on Friday but holds above 157.00.
The UK's Office for National Statistics announced early Friday that Retail Sales declined by 1.1% on a monthly basis in October after rising 0.7% in September. After closing virtually unchanged on Thursday, GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates below 1.3100 early Friday.
EUR/USD extended its slide on persistent USD strength and closed the fifth consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday. The pair stages a correction toward 1.1550 in the European morning on Friday.
After failing to stabilize above $4,100, Gold struggled to attract buyers on Thursday and ended the day with small losses. Gold stays under bearish pressure early Friday and declines toward $4,000.
AUD/USD lost about 0.6% on Thursday before stabilizing near 0.6450 early Friday. The data from Australia showed that the S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in November from 52.1 in October, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector's business activity.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- The Japanese Yen stalls its recent slide amid intervention fears and reviving safe-haven demand.
- Fiscal concerns and BoJ rate hike uncertainty might keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the JPY.
- Less dovish Fed expectations favor the USD bulls and also lend some support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some buyers on Friday and moves away from its lowest level since mid-January, touched against the US Dollar (USD) the previous day. Comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama earlier today fueled speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY weakness. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets is seen underpinning the safe-haven JPY through the early European session.
Meanwhile, Japan’s cabinet approves a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus package, adding to worries about the country's ailing fiscal position and the supply of new government debt. Adding to this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would delay raising interest rates might cap gains for the JPY. Moreover, less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a tailwind for the Greenback and help limit any meaningful corrective decline for the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen bears turn cautious as intervention warning and softer risk tone offset fiscal concerns
- Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, in the strongest warning to date, said on Friday that we will take appropriate action as needed against excess volatility and disorderly market moves, including those in the long term. Katayama also signaled chances of currency intervention, providing a modest lift to the Japanese Yen during the Asian session.
- Earlier today, Japan's Statistics Bureau reported that National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core gauge (excluding Fresh Food) rose by 3.0% in October from a year earlier. Further details revealed that core CPI (ex Fresh Food and Energy), which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, arrived at 3.1% YoY compared to a 3.0% increase in September.
- The data suggests that inflation in Japan remains sticky above the central bank's 2% target and keeps alive hopes for a near-term interest rate hike. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the JPY weakness is increasingly feeding into import costs and consumer inflation, adding that currency swings have a bigger impact than in the past.
- A Reuters poll showed on Thursday that a slim majority of economists expect the BoJ to raise rates to 0.75% in December, with all forecasters seeing at least that level by the end of Q1 2026. However, the BoJ rate hike uncertainty persists amid Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies and her preference for interest rates to stay low.
- Japan's cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, the first significant policy initiative under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The package contains ¥17.7 trillion in general account outlays, which exceeds the previous year's ¥13.9 trillion and represents the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include tax cuts totaling ¥2.7 trillion.
- Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday, which showed that the economy added 119,000 new jobs in September. The reading surpassed the market expectation of 50,000 and followed the 4,000 decrease (revised from +22,000) in August. The Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.4% from 4.3%.
- Nevertheless, the data eased market concerns about a softening US labor market and further dampened bets for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The less dovish Fed expectations assists the US Dollar to preserve its strong weekly gains, to the highest level since late May, and should contribute to limiting losses for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY is likely to attract some dip-buying near the 156.60 support
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions and holding back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further appreciating move.
In the meantime, any corrective slide might now find decent support just below the 157.00 mark ahead of the 156.65-156.60 region, below which the USD/JPY pair could fall towards the 156.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if broken, should pave the way for deeper losses.
On the flip side, the 158.00 mark could act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could climb to the next relevant resistance near mid-158.00s. The momentum could extend further and allow spot prices to aim towards testing the January swing high, around the 159.00 neighborhood.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.27% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.22% | -0.20% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.02% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | -0.02% | -0.19% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | -0.00% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.20% | 0.08% | 0.09% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.08% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.18 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $58.66.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $62.16 after its previous daily close at $62.60.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales fell 1.1% month-over-month (MoM) in October after advancing 0.7% in September (revised from 0.5%), according to the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday.
Markets projected 0% in the reported month.
The core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, decreased 1.0% MoM in October, compared with the previous rise of 0.7% (revised from 0.6%). This figure came in below the market consensus of -0.2%.
The annual Retail Sales in the UK rose 0.2% in October versus 1.0% prior (revised from 1.5%), below the consensus of 1.5%. The annual core Retail Sales jumps 1.2% in the same month versus a 1.7% rise prior (revised from 2.3%). This reading came in softer than the market expectations of 2.5%.
Market reaction to the UK Retail Sales report
The Pound Sterling attracts some sellers following the upbeat UK Retail Sales report. The GBP/USD pair is trading 0.04% higher on the day at 1.3075 as of writing.
Pound Sterling Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.79% | 0.83% | 1.65% | 0.44% | 1.22% | 0.96% | 1.44% | |
| EUR | -0.79% | 0.04% | 0.89% | -0.35% | 0.43% | 0.17% | 0.64% | |
| GBP | -0.83% | -0.04% | 0.82% | -0.39% | 0.38% | 0.12% | 0.60% | |
| JPY | -1.65% | -0.89% | -0.82% | -1.19% | -0.44% | -0.71% | -0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.44% | 0.35% | 0.39% | 1.19% | 0.77% | 0.50% | 1.00% | |
| AUD | -1.22% | -0.43% | -0.38% | 0.44% | -0.77% | -0.26% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.96% | -0.17% | -0.12% | 0.71% | -0.50% | 0.26% | 0.48% | |
| CHF | -1.44% | -0.64% | -0.60% | 0.23% | -1.00% | -0.22% | -0.48% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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