Forex News
- Gold recovers part of Tuesday’s losses as the US Dollar loses momentum.
- Traders await the FOMC minutes for fresh clues on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.
- XAU/USD stays confined to its recent range, with the 100-day SMA capping the upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) regains ground on Wednesday after falling nearly 2% on the previous day as a softer US Dollar (USD) and a modest pullback in long-term US Treasury yields lend support to the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,371, up 0.90% on the day.
Buyers, however, lack strong conviction as a mixed fundamental backdrop keeps XAU/USD trapped within the tight range seen over the past week. Gold’s near-term direction hinges on Federal Reserve (Fed) signals and developments in the Middle East amid a sparse US economic calendar.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) July meeting, due at 18:00 GMT, will be closely watched as uncertainty over the Fed’s interest-rate outlook persists.
Since the July meeting, weaker-than-expected labour market and inflation data have reduced the likelihood of an interest-rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Traders have subsequently trimmed the probability of a September hike to just 32%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, helping limit Gold’s downside.
However, the energy shock stemming from the war in the Middle East keeps inflation risks tilted to the upside, supporting expectations that the Fed may eventually need to raise interest rates.
These concerns are partially reflected in longer-term US Treasury yields, which remain elevated despite Wednesday’s modest pullback. High yields cap Gold’s upside by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Analysts at ING highlight that the “unresolved conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices bid and partially contributing to the rise in long-end yields.”
For the near term, ING sees the key catalyst in “tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting.” They remind clients that “the vote was 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the dollar, while the long end sold off,” suggesting that any reiteration of that tone could again weigh on the front end and the Dollar even as long-end yields remain sensitive to higher energy prices and geopolitical risk.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.37, down 0.30% on the day.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD struggles below the 100-day SMA
The metal holds above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) at $4,219, but the near-term tone appears capped, with price sitting just below the 100-day SMA at $4,381.
The upper Bollinger band at $4,519 marks the top of the current volatility envelope, while a mildly elevated Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 59 and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint at limited bullish momentum rather than a clear trend extension.
On the downside, a break below the recent range support at $4,300 could expose the middle Bollinger Band near $4,219. The $4,000 psychological mark offers the next support, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,920.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that international investors are aggressively cutting Dollar exposure as real-yield support erodes following the July FOMC meeting. The bank sees the Dollar decline as a normalization of previously extreme U.S. asset holdings rather than a collapse in U.S. exceptionalism. FX risks are differentiated by pair, with U.S. equities still supported and fixed income more insulated.
Dollar decline and FX regime risks
"Aggregate U.S. exposure among international investors, measured using a 40:60 equity/fixed-income portfolio net of dollar holdings, recently reached record highs. The July FOMC meeting marked a clear turning point, and the unwind in “dollar exceptionalism” is now proving equally sharp. If the adjustment is fully symmetrical, we estimate total dollar exposure could return to flat within roughly 12 weeks, setting the stage for a significant regime shift in FX markets into Q4."
"The dollar is clearly under pressure, but the risks remain differentiated by pair and asset class. U.S. equity exceptionalism remains intact, while stronger home bias in fixed income means the marginal impact of overseas hedging should be smaller, particularly at shorter maturities. Barring a major policy misalignment, we see the current move as a healthy normalization of international exposure to U.S. assets."
"In FX, continue to raise USD hedge ratios rather than cut U.S. assets outright, while treating the dollar decline as a broader exposure normalization, not a collapse in U.S. exceptionalism."
"Unless fiscal or monetary signals change materially, the path of least resistance remains toward further curve steepening and a continued normalization of dollar exposure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Indian Rupee trades vulnerably against the US Dollar at around 95.75.
- Higher oil prices are keeping the Indian Rupee under pressure.
- The RBI prematurely closes the zero-cost swap facility.
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains vulnerable against the US Dollar (USD), close to its two-week low at around 95.75. The USD/INR pair has been under pressure as oil prices continue to remain higher, with discussions between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, remaining absent.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 0.6% higher to near Rs. 8,130. The crude oil price is close to its three-week high of Rs. 8,170 posted on Tuesday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.
Oil stays elevated as Strait of Hormuz standoff drags on
Analysts at BNY highlight that "hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded." They note that US President Donald Trump has "said he will not seek to revive the expired U.S.–Iran truce, leaving the conflict and control of the vital shipping route unresolved," with Washington "demanding unrestricted passage through the strait, while Iran says traffic should be managed jointly with Oman."
BNY adds that "shipping activity remains heavily disrupted and fresh attacks near the strait have reinforced supply concerns." While Trump has argued that "U.S. leverage over Iran remains substantial" and "claimed back channels are open, though Tehran disputed this," the bank stresses that "the unresolved standoff keeps oil vulnerable to renewed escalation and prolonged disruption."
Against this backdrop, BNY concludes that "persistent Middle East tensions are keeping crude elevated, adding another supply-driven inflation risk to already stretched long-end markets."
On Tuesday, US President Trump also confirmed through a post on Truth Social that Washington is currently not involved in any discussions, nor scheduled, with Iran. Trump claimed that the Hormuz is under US control and fully operating.
RBI ends FCNR(B) swap window early as inflows swell and liquidity costs rise
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced an early closure of its concessional FX swap facility for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits on 31 August, “a month ahead of the original deadline.” According to the bank, the move follows a stronger-than-expected take-up, with Indian banks having attracted “USD52.3 billion of FCNR(B) deposits as of 13 August.”
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the early closure likely reflects “diminishing benefits relative to the rising liquidity and balance-sheet costs of the scheme.” The sizeable inflows have “generated substantial rupee liquidity and supported demand for shorter-dated government bonds,” but the bank cautions that “the scheme is not costless.”
Looking ahead, Commerzbank expects the RBI to “rely primarily on spot and forward FX intervention if depreciation pressures return,” while any resort to rate hikes would “likely require a more persistent combination of INR weakness and inflation pressure.” In the near term, the bank highlights that “oil prices remain the key external driver for INR, given India’s dependence on crude imports.”
The RBI is seen to have intervened in spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets to support the depreciating Indian Rupee several times in a few months. Indian central bank was also expected to have stepped into the foreign exchange market this morning to shield the rupee from pressure due to persistently elevated oil prices amid uncertainty over the US-Iran war, Reuters reports.
FOMC Minutes awaited
Investors keenly await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Analysts at Commerzbank expect the minutes from the Fed’s late-July meeting to be closely watched, as markets “may try to discern just how close the FOMC members ultimately were and still are to raising interest rates.” They note that the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, “intends to comment less on monetary policy and let the market do its job,” a stance that could increase the importance of the minutes as a window into the Committee’s thinking.
Commerzbank stresses that “the Fed – and the Fed alone – is responsible for price stability through its setting of the federal funds rate, not the market,” arguing that in the absence of “clear statements in the press release and at the press conference following the Fed meeting, the market might try to learn a little more about the discussions among FOMC members from the minutes.” Whether that effort yields much new information “remains to be seen,” particularly given that “following the Fed's last meeting in late July, the labor market and inflation figures had already come as a surprise with weaker-than-expected results,” leaving the market “no longer fully pricing in an interest rate hike by the end of the year.”
Against that backdrop, Commerzbank suggests that “should an interest rate hike in September have been a real possibility after all, the market could raise its rate hike expectations for the Fed slightly again and thereby provide support for the Dollar, provided the fundamentals warrant it.” However, they caution that “a fundamental reassessment of interest rate expectations – and the resulting sharp movements in the Dollar – is unlikely to occur,” implying that any reaction to the minutes is more likely to be incremental than transformative for US rate and currency markets.
Ahead of FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.26% lower to near 99.38, close to its two-month low of 99.29 posted on Monday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stabilizes above 38.2% Fibo retracement at 95.63
USD/INR trades at 95.76, holding a mild bullish bias as it stays above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 95.58. The pair has also reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 95.63, suggesting that dips are being supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 points to constructive but not overextended momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near 95.87, followed by the 61.8% level at 96.12; a daily close above this latter barrier would open the way toward 96.46 and the recent swing high around 96.90. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 95.63, reinforced by the 20-period EMA close to 95.58, with a deeper floor at the 23.6% retracement near 95.33 if sellers regain traction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Aug 19, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
- AUD/USD finds buyers at 0.7065 to bounce up to 0.7080, but remains bearish on the daily chart.
- The USD is losing some momentum as investors brace for the Fed's minutes.
- Risk aversion and lower wage growth figures in Australia have proved a heavy weight for the Aussie.
The Australian Dollar (AUD)has bounced up from intra-week lows against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, although the daily chart remains negative. The AUD/USD pair struggles to regain a previous support area above 0.7080 at the time of writing, after finding support at the 0.7065 area earlier on the day.
The Greenback is giving away ground against major peers on Wednesday’s European session, as traders brace for the release of the minutes of July’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, aiming for further guidance on the bank’s near-term plans.
ING: Fed minutes are unlikely to pose significant support for the USD
Analysts at ING highlight that "the suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots." ING assesses that "a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes could nudge the dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer," but they do not expect the minutes to be "a game changer."
Instead, ING experts see that "another batch of CPI and jobs data, plus the end-of-month Jackson Hole symposium, will have a bigger say in whether the Federal Reserve hikes in September," reiterating that "our base case is that it does not, and the dollar softens a little."
Aussie struggles on risk aversion and low wage growth
The Aussie, on the other hand, remains weighed by the growing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and higher Oil prices. In Australia, the steady growth of the Q2 Wage Price Index has eased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike interest rates immediately, providing an additional bearish impulse to the Aussie
Against this background, Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that “RBA cash rate futures continue to imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%,” but argues that “the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle because policy is already somewhat restrictive.” AUD dips, however, are likely to remain limited, as “Australia’s attractive carry alongside the country’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key AUD tailwinds,” says Haddad in a note.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- GBP/USD rises to near 1.3557 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure.
- The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in September.
- UK’s headline CPI grew in line with estimates of 2.9% YoY vs. 2.6% prior.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.2% to near 1.3557 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with traders scaling back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets due to weak United States (US) economic data for August.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.29% | -0.20% | -0.37% | -0.22% | 0.10% | -0.13% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.39% | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | -0.08% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.34% | 0.07% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.45% | 0.21% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.22% | -0.09% | -0.00% | -0.15% | 0.30% | 0.06% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.39% | -0.34% | -0.45% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.06% | 0.24% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | -0.01% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Dollar steadies as FOMC minutes eyed for limited hawkish surprise
Analysts at ING highlight that “for today, the focus will be on tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting,” noting that the earlier decision saw “the vote… 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the Dollar, while the long end sold off.” ING argues that “the suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots.” As a result, while they concede “there may be a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes that could nudge the Dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer,” they stress that “we do not see the minutes as a game changer.”
Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.26% lower to near 99.38, close to its two-month low of 99.29 posted on Monday.
On the United Kingdom (UK) front, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July has come in higher at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, from 2.6% in June. The core CPI growth remains steady at 2.6% YoY, while it was expected to cool down to 2.5%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades near 1.3560. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3475 and the former resistance trend line, now acting as support around 1.3436.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 64 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained upward momentum without yet reaching extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, the immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA at 1.3475, followed by the trend-line break level near 1.3436. On the topside, the pair needs to break above the three-month high at 1.3571 to extend the advance towards 1.3600, followed by the May high at 1.3658.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Aug 19, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.9%
Consensus: 2.9%
Previous: 2.6%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports the Australian Dollar is underperforming as bond yields fall after Q2 wage growth matched expectations. Haddad argues this outcome will keep the RBA on hold, with private sector wage gains at a four‑year low. Futures still price a possible final hike, but he sees risks skewed toward an extended pause despite supportive carry and commodity exposure.
AUD pressured as wage data cools
"AUD is underperforming across the board, and Australian bond yields are lower. Australia Q2 wage growth matched consensus and will keep the RBA sidelined."
"Wages rose 0.8% q/q for a third straight quarter to be 3.2% y/y vs. 3.2% in Q1. Annual wage growth in Q2 was softer than the RBA’s projection of 3.3% and underlying private sector pay pressures were even more subdued."
"Private sector wages growth eased to a four-year low at 3.1% y/y vs. 3.2% in Q1, while public sector wages growth held at 3.4% y/y for a second straight quarter."
"RBA cash rate futures continue to imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%. In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle because policy is already somewhat restrictive."
"Still, Australia’s attractive carry alongside the country’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key AUD tailwinds."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/JPY trades around 184.70 on Wednesday, virtually unchanged on the day.
- Expectations of higher interest rates in Japan support the Japanese Yen, while fiscal concerns limit its appreciation.
- Persistently elevated Eurozone inflation also strengthens expectations of further monetary tightening in Europe.
EUR/JPY trades around 184.70 on Wednesday at the time of writing, edging 0.03% lower on the day. The pair struggles to find a clear direction as the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from growing expectations of another interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), while the Euro (EUR) remains supported by prospects of further monetary tightening from the European Central Bank (ECB).
On the Japanese side, investors are increasing their bets on another BoJ rate hike in the coming months. According to Reuters, the Japanese central bank is considering raising interest rates as soon as September, while overnight index swaps are pricing in around an 80% chance of such a move. These expectations support the Japanese Yen and limit EUR/JPY's upside potential for now.
Investors now await the release of Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Inflation remaining persistently above the BoJ's 2% target could reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening and strengthen the Japanese Yen.
However, concerns surrounding Japan's public finances are limiting the currency's appreciation. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has proposed cutting the consumption tax on food to 1% for two years without yet identifying an alternative source of revenue to offset the measure. The proposal fuels concerns about Japan's fiscal trajectory and represents a potential headwind for the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the Euro retains some support following the latest Eurozone inflation data. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.9% YoY in July, up from 2.8% in June, matching the preliminary estimate and remaining above the ECB's 2% target. Core inflation also accelerated to 2.5% from 2.4%.
The figures reinforce expectations that the ECB will continue its rate-hiking cycle. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September according to the ECB Watch tool, which would bring the policy rate to 2.5%.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday that Eurozone inflation, at around 3%, remains too high, even if the level appears modest compared with previous peaks. His comments, combined with the latest inflation figures, help the Euro withstand the strength of the Japanese Yen and keep EUR/JPY near 184.70.
BoJ path repriced as Standard Chartered flags earlier hikes and persistent Yen risks
Analysts at Standard Chartered have brought forward their expectations for Bank of Japan tightening, now looking for the BoJ "to hike by 25bps on 18 September from October previously." They also anticipate a more extended cycle, saying "we now expect two more 25bps hikes after September, in Q1- and Q3-2027, from 25bps hikes in October and Q2-2027," which implies "a higher terminal rate of 1.75% in this rate-hike cycle from 1.5% previously." Even so, they caution that "we doubt the BoJ can ‘out-hawk’ the market, which is pricing in a terminal rate of c.2.0% by end-2027."
On the currency side, Standard Chartered reiterates that "we do not rule out further FX intervention in the interim as USD/JPY trades close to 160; we still see USD/JPY at 158 by end-Q3 and 160 by end-Q4 as yield-insensitive capital outflows weigh on the JPY." They note that "the recent Japan-US coordination to stabilise the JPY highlighted a shared concern about the inflationary consequences of excessive currency weakness," underscoring the policy sensitivity around the exchange rate.
The bank also flags several potential challenges to its baseline, warning that "risks to our view include any further hawkish BoJ surprises in the near term, signs of repatriation by local investors and PM Takaichi pivoting away from her preference for dovish policy to boost growth."
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.20% | 0.09% | -0.10% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.08% | -0.07% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.14% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.11% | 0.28% | 0.08% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.34% | -0.29% | -0.39% | -0.28% | -0.19% | -0.33% | |
| NZD | 0.10% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.08% | 0.19% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | -0.01% | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.33% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank FX analysts Norman Liebke and Michael Pfister see the Brazilian Real (BRL) supported by the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) hawkish stance and still-elevated real interest rates. They expect USD/BRL to stay under pressure ahead of the October presidential election as markets price political risk, before appreciating again with forecasts of 5.20 by year-end 2026 and 4.80 by end-2027.
Real pressured then seen appreciating
"As last year, the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) hawkish stance has contributed to the real’s strong performance this year."
"With energy prices remaining high, market participants now expect the benchmark interest rate to be around 14% by year-end, which is in line with the current level."
"Despite the high real interest rate, the BCB has successfully convinced the market that there will be no more than one additional rate cut this year."
"In our view, the real is likely to remain under pressure against the US dollar until the presidential election in October, and inflation and interest rate trends will not resume their dominant role in BRL performance until after the election."
"Given the Brazilian central bank’s relatively hawkish stance, the real is likely to continue appreciating, so that USD/BRL should stand at 5.20 by the end of the year, once political risks have subsided, and at 4.80 by the end of 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/GBP appreciated for the fifth day in a row, reaching session highs above 0.8550.
- Eurozone final HICP figures confirm that price pressures accelerated in July.
- In the UK, hotter CPI and soft employment figures have left the Pound on the defensive.
The Euro (EUR) trades higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, on track for a five-day winning streak, and received additional support after Eurozone final inflation figures confirmed higher price pressures in July. The EUR/GBP has reached session highs at 0.8560 after bouncing from last week’s lows, at 0.8530.
Eurozone’s final Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed preliminary data pointing to an acceleration to a 2.9% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) rate in July, from 2.8% in June. Likewise, the Core HICP ticked up to a 2.5% Y-o-Y growth rate in July from 2.4% in the previous year.
Month-over-month, the HICP bounced up to a 0.2% gain after a 0.1% contraction in June, while the core HICP remained flat for the second consecutive month.
These figures strengthen the case for an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September, particularly after ECB official and Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn reiterated earlier on Wednesday that “keeping inflation expectations anchored is essential”
UK data shows hotter inflation and a softer labour market
Earlier on the day, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed that inflation accelerated to a 0.3% rate in July, from 0.1% in May and 2.9% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) from 2.6% in the previous month, in line with market expectations.
The Core CPI grew at a 2.6% Y-o-Y rate, unchanged from the previous month, against the market consensus for a slowdown to a 2.5% yearly rate. The impact of these figures on the Pound, however, was minimal.
These figures follow a mixed UK employment report which put the Pound under pressure on Tuesday. The ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady against expectations of a slight decline, employment growth slowed down, the number of jobless claimants declined unexpectedly, and wage growth accelerated after having remained steady over the previous three months.
(This story was corrected on August 19 at 10:33 GMT to say the UK employment report put the Pound under pressure on Tuesday, and not on Monday, as previously stated.)
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Aug 19, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.9%
Consensus: 2.9%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: Eurostat
Economic Indicator
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, – released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core HICP excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The Core HICP is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Aug 19, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.5%
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: Eurostat
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.10 per troy ounce, down 0.38% from the $63.35 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 11.23% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 63.10 |
1 Gram | 2.03 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.02 on Wednesday, up from 68.42 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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